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! Master!Thesis! M&A:%Deutsche%Post%DHL%And ! ! ! ! Master!Thesis! ! ! ! ! M&A:%Deutsche%Post%DHL%and%Austrian%Post% ! Bernardo!Miranda! ! ! ! ! Advisor:!Peter!Tsvetkov! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 16/09/2013! ! ! Dissertation*submitted*in*partial*fulfillment*of*the*requirements*for*the*degree*of*MSc*in* Business'Administration,'with'Major'in'Coporate'Finance'and'Control'at'Universidade' Católica(Portuguesa,(September(2013! Acknowledgments. ! The! author! would! like! to! express! its! gratitude! to! its! adviser,! Professor! Peter! Tsvetkov,! for! constant! support,! availability! and! helpful! feedback,! even! throughout! the! summer;! to! its! seminar! colleagues! as! well! as! friends! for! the! discussion!of!ideas!and!support;!and!to!its!family,!for!encouragement!throughout! the!fullLlength!of!the!MSc.! . ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Bernardo!Miranda!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!M&A:!Deutsche!Post!DHL!and!Austrian!Post! ii! Abstract. ! The!goal!of!this!thesis!is!to!assess!how!would!a!potential!deal!between!Deutsche! Post! DHL! (also! referred! to! as! DPDHL! or! simply! DHL)! and! Austrian! Post! (also! referred! to! as! Österreichische! Post! or! simply! OP)! result! in! terms! of! value! creation!for!both!companies.!In!an!era!of!abrupt!economical!and!technological! changes,!the!Transportation!and!Logistics!sector!is!one!of!the!more!affected,!and! thus! the! urge! to! constantly! adapt.! The! top! capabilities! of! DHL! as! well! as! geographic!proximity!with!OP!could!leverage!very!important!efficiencies!of!many! kinds.! ! Common!practices!on!valuations!are!used!to!assess!the!individual!value!of! both! companies,! which! serve! as! basis! to! project! future! trends! based! in! case! a! merger!would!take!place.!Decreasing!traditional!Mail!volume!and!opportunities! in! Express! deliveries! due! to! eLcommerce! are! found! to! be! the! main! factors! affecting!the!value!of!these!companies.! ! Following!the!cautious!estimation!of!resulting!synergies,!an!allLcash!offer! of!€39.2!per!share!was!proposed,!resulting!in!a!premium!on!average!share!price! of!25.1%!to!OP’s!shareholders.! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Bernardo!Miranda!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!M&A:!Deutsche!Post!DHL!and!Austrian!Post! iii! Table&of&Contents& 1.&Introduction&.......................................................................................................&7( 2.&Literature&Review&...............................................................................................&8( 2.1.(Why(do(companies(merge?(...................................................................................................................(8( 2.1.1.$Recent$trends$in$M&A$...........................................................................................................................$8$ 2.1.1.1(The(rise(of(crossCborder(activity(.........................................................................................................(9( 2.1.1.2.(Emerging(or(Mature(markets,(which(to(target?(.........................................................................(10( 2.1.2.$Rationale$behind$M&A$......................................................................................................................$11$ 2.1.2.1.(M&A(depends(on(macro(issues:(time(and(pLace…(....................................................................(12( 2.1.2.2.(…and(micro(factors:(where(managers(have(the(say(................................................................(12( 2.1.3.$Does$M&A$really$payoff?$..................................................................................................................$15$ 2.1.3.1.(How(to(measure(the(success(of(M&A?(...........................................................................................(15( 2.1.3.2.(Announcement(Reactions(and(Target’s(Shareholders(............................................................(18( 2.1.3.3.(Buyer’s(Shareholders(............................................................................................................................(19( 2.1.3.4.(The(case(of(crossCborder(M&A(..........................................................................................................(20( 2.1.4.$What$goes$wrong?$..............................................................................................................................$21$ 2.1.4.1.(InfLated(premiums(..................................................................................................................................(21( 2.1.4.2.(VaLue(undeLivered:(the(synergy(myth(............................................................................................(21( 2.1.4.3.(Evidence(on(faiLure(................................................................................................................................(22( 2.1.4.4.(Mitigating(the(issue(................................................................................................................................(23( 2.1.5.$Conclusion$..............................................................................................................................................$24$ 2.2.(What(do(we(have(to(take(into(consideration?(.............................................................................(24( 2.2.1.$Valuation$of$the$Company$...............................................................................................................$25$ Discounting(CashCflows(.......................................................................................................................................(25( ReLative(VaLuations(................................................................................................................................................(30( 2.2.2.$Synergies$.................................................................................................................................................$32$ 2.2.2.1.(VaLuation(....................................................................................................................................................(34( 2.2.2.2.(Sharing(Synergy(Gains(..........................................................................................................................(38( 2.2.2.3.(Shareholder(VaLue(at(Risk((SVAR)(...................................................................................................(39( 2.2.2.4.(Common(Errors(in(VaLuing(Synergy(...............................................................................................(39( 2.2.3.$CrossGborder$M&A$...............................................................................................................................$40$ VaLuation(....................................................................................................................................................................(40( Financing(....................................................................................................................................................................(40( Taxes(............................................................................................................................................................................(41( Special(risks(..............................................................................................................................................................(42( 3.&Industry&Review&...............................................................................................&43( 3.1.(WorLdwide(business(segments(..........................................................................................................(43( 3.2.(Career(Diversification(............................................................................................................................(45( 3.3.(Recent(trends(............................................................................................................................................(46( 3.4.(PostaL(Services(in(Europe(.....................................................................................................................(48( 3.4.1.$Regulatory$environment$Germany$..............................................................................................$50$ 3.4.2.$Regulatory$environment$Austria$..................................................................................................$51$ 3.4.3.$Considerations$about$European$Competition$Network$.....................................................$51$ 3.4.4.$CEP$market$in$Europe$.......................................................................................................................$52$ 4.&Company&Review&..............................................................................................&53( 4.1.(Deutsche(Post(DHL((DPDHL)(.............................................................................................................(53( 4.1.1.$Key$Financials$.......................................................................................................................................$54$ 4.2.(Österreichische(Post(..............................................................................................................................(58( 4.2.1.$Key$Financials$.......................................................................................................................................$59$ 4.3.(Share(prices(................................................................................................................................................(63(
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