Market Analysis for Renovation Maury River Place Lexington, Virginia

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Market Analysis for Renovation Maury River Place Lexington, Virginia Market Analysis for Renovation Maury River Place Lexington, Virginia Prepared for: Mr. David Koogler Mark Dana Corporation February 28, 2018 S. Patz and Associates, Inc. 46175 Westlake Drive, Suite 400 Potomac Falls, Virginia 20165 1 February 28, 2018 Mr. David Koogler Mark-Dana Corporation 26302 Oak Ridge Drive Spring, Texas 77380 Dear Mr. Koogler: Attached is our completed market study for the proposed renovation of the existing Green Hills Apartment complex, to be renamed Maury River Place after renovation. The apartment complex is fully occupied and is expected to remain full during and after renovation. All residents have rent subsidies; that too will remain. The market report shows “support” for higher base rents after renovation compared with current rents. These are recommended as described in the report. The market area apartment market is at near full occupancy, with a small waiting list. There are no new apartment proposals under study or planned at this time. Several area apartment properties have been successfully renovated, in a similar manner as the Subject proposal. Market data presented in the attached report are favorable for the proposed $1.6+ million renovation, as required by officials of Virginia Housing Development Authority. Field research for this assignment was undertaken on February 28, 2018. Please call if additional data or clarification are needed. Sincerely, Stuart M. Patz President 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE Section I Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 4 Market Area Definition ..................................................................................................................... 6 Maury River Place ................................................................................................................................. 7 Property Description .......................................................................................................................... 7 Site Plan ............................................................................................................................................... 12 Apartment Unit Characteristics ..................................................................................................... 14 Apartment Unit Floor Plans ........................................................................................................... 15 Community Building ....................................................................................................................... 16 Current Resident Characteristics ................................................................................................... 16 Summary .................................................................................................................................... 17 Renovation Program ................................................................................................................. 18 Site Setting .................................................................................................................................. 19 Economic Overview Analysis ....................................................................................................... 22 At-place Employment ............................................................................................................... 22 Employment .............................................................................................................................. 24 Unemployment .......................................................................................................................... 24 Economic Development Activity ............................................................................................ 25 Area Universities ....................................................................................................................... 26 Summary .................................................................................................................................... 27 Section II Affordable Apartment Analysis .............................................................................................. 28 Demographic Analysis .............................................................................................................. 28 Population Trends and Projections ......................................................................................... 28 Group Quarters ................................................................................................................................ 29 Household Population .................................................................................................................... 30 Renter Households ........................................................................................................................... 30 Renter Households by Income ....................................................................................................... 30 Renter Households by Size ............................................................................................................. 31 Competitive Apartment Analysis ..................................................................................................... 31 Apartment Community Characteristics ........................................................................................ 32 Market Area Vacancy Rate ............................................................................................................. 38 Net Rent Analyses ............................................................................................................................ 39 Apartment Unit Sizes & Mix .......................................................................................................... 40 Section III Conclusions ...................................................................................................................................... 42 Demand Table ................................................................................................................................... 42 3 Section I Introduction Following is our full narrative market report for the proposed renovation of the 40-unit, Green Hills Apartments, in Lexington, Virginia, that is being renamed, Maury River Place, as part of an extensive renovation plan, which includes upgrades estimated at a cost of $40,000 per apartment unit. The apartment complex is a rent restricted apartment property under the Section 515 RD program, and the current rent restrictions will remain after the proposed renovation. Once renovated, as is now the case, Maury River Place will have rent and income restrictions, but no age restrictions. The report to follow has been prepared under the current market study guidelines established by Virginia Housing Development Authority (VHDA) for financing for affordable housing. The report will be submitted to officials of VHDA in support of a 9% Low Income Housing Tax Credit application, under the 2018 competitive “round”, with a due date of March 16, 2018. The report closely follows the VHDA report requirements. To stay within the VHDA guidelines, the report is presented in three sections. The first, the Introduction, is a detailed analysis of the apartment site, to be referred to as Maury River Place, and the tenant characteristics of the apartment complex. The site setting is in a location just north of the City of Lexington and the public services available to the site are part of the site description. Also included in the Introduction is a detailed explanation of the renovation proposal. The second part of the Introduction is an Economic Overview of the Rockbridge County economy, with the County defined as the market area for Maury River Place. The economic overview analyzes at-place job growth and trends, including employment and labor force data. Job and employment growth are the key factors supporting population and household growth, and the resulting area housing unit demand, including the type of housing under study. 4 Section II is the Affordable Housing Market Analysis. First presented is the demographic analysis prepared for this report. The demographic analysis “solves” for the number and growth of renters with incomes of $21,000 ± to $32,000±, when incomes are reported in constant 2017/18 dollars. This is the income level required for the proposed rents at Maury River Place, for rents without rent restrictions, and based on affordability of 35 percent of income allocated to gross rent. The market study “must” show demand for renters who can afford the base rents, without any rent restrictions. The lower income range is based on 35 percent of income allocated to base rent, including cold water, sewer and trash collection, at 50% of AMI. The $32,000±, maximum allowable income for gross rent for a three-person household, at 60% of AMI The rent analysis is studied only for 50% and 60% rents for Rockbridge County. The proposal has four units at 40% rents, but the base 40% rent is the same as the 50% rent. All residents of Maury River Place currently meet the required rent restrictions and have incomes below $23,000. Few pay the base rent and rely on rental assistance from “RD” to pay full rent. At the current rate, or increased rent, after renovation, most residents will continue to pay rents below market due to disability, family, or other issues that reduce their
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