Imaginaries of German Economic Success: Is the Current Model Sustainable?
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EUROPE AT A CROSSROADS : PERENNIAL AUSTERITY Imaginaries of German Economic Success: Is the Current Model Sustainable? BRIGITTE YOUNG BRIGITTE YOUNG is Professor Emerita of Inter- national Political Economy, Department of Political Science at the University of Münster, Germany. She Be careful what you wish for – You might get it! previously served as Expert Advisor to the Enquete- Commission of the German Parliament on “Global- ization of the World Economy.” She is currently a Not so long ago, the British weekly newspaper The Economist (2013) conjured member of the Scientific Advisory Board of the up the imaginary of Germany as a “reluctant hegemon,” calling on the country EU-financed project on “Financialisation, Economy, to take a more decisive political leadership role in Europe. In a similar vein, Society and Sustainable Development” (FESSUD) Martin Wolf argued in the Financial Times (10.12.2014) that Germany “is too and an Expert Advisor to the EU project on “Orchestrating Information Technologies and Global powerful and too central to avoid its new destiny. Upon it rests the future of Systems Science for Policy Design and Regulation” a politically and economic fragile Europe. The time of thinking small is past. (SYMPHONY). Young has held several guest profes- Germany is now a big country with big responsibilities. It will be judged by sorships at the Free University, Berlin; Science- how it lives up to them.” Imaginaries can be thought of as powerful ideational Politique, Paris; Science-Politique, Lille; Central European University, Budapest; Warwick University, and material roadmaps in so far as they give meaning and shape to the (Euro- UK; and Georgetown University, Washington D.C., pean) economic field (Sum/Jessop 2015). By invoking the imaginary of a reluc- USA. Her most recent publications include “Hijack- tant hegemon, actors construct a narrative about Germany and use it to change ing Ordoliberalism?,” as guest editor, European its performativity within and across European organizations and institutions. Review of International Relations (2015); Financial After escaping the previous imaginary of the sick man of Europe in the 1990s, Cultures and Crisis Dynamics, co-edited with Bob Jessop und Christoph Scherrer (Routledge: 2014); Germany is now seen as the most successful economy in the Eurozone (Scharpf Financial Crisis: Causes, Policy responses, future 2015). This imaginary reflects the yearning for a hegemon that can provide Challenges. Outcomes of EU-funded Research, foundational principles and overarching meaning in times of economic, politi- European Commission, Brussels: DG Research cal, and identity crises. and Innovation (2014); “German Ordoliberalism as Agenda Setter for the Euro Crisis: Myth Trumps Measured against other EU member states, Germany’s recent economic Reality,” Journal of Contemporary European Stud- achievements are quite impressive. It has outperformed the Eurozone average ies, Vol. 22:3: 276–87 (2014); and Questioning growth rate since the second quarter of 2010. Recently released data shows that Financial Governance from a Feminist Perspective, Germany’s GDP increased by 1.7 percent in 2015, the best performance since co-edited with Isabella Bakker and Diane Elson 2011 (Tagesschau, 14.1.2016). Germany now has the strongest as well as the big- (Routledge: 2011). gest economy in Europe with a 4.5 percent unemployment rate in the Q3 2015, leaving other member states of the Eurozone countries far behind with an aver- age unemployment rate of over 10% (except Austria). While many critics accuse Germany of contributing to global macroeconomic imbalances, it continues as the export nation par excellence. According to the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook Database, German exports accounted for about 40.6 percent of total economic output in 2014. Whether Germany is a European hegemon and whether other European member states actually want Germany to perform this role (what has become known as the Germanification of Europe) remains a much-contested issue. According to the theory of hegemonic stability in the discipline of international relations, hegemonic powers are essential to provide the norms and principles needed to resolve international coordination problems (Kindleberger 1973). In calling for an altruistic hegemon it is nevertheless worth remembering that BRIGITTE YOUNG — 2 hegemons seldom act against their own self-interests (Ruggie 1998) and that they often do so to advance their objectives against other agents in a tactical manner (Lagna 2015). This European question regarding the role and desir- ability of a hegemon is significantly connected to Germany’s unique discourse around its deficit fetishism (Stiglitz 2016). In terms of fiscal prudence, CDU Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble has achieved a zero deficit target (die schwarze Null) two years in a row (2014 and 2015), which is all the more remarkable given that this has not happened since 1969. Recently released figures show that the German federal govern- ment has achieved a budgetary surplus of €12.1 billion for 2015, which is dou- ble the amount forecast in November of last year (n-tv, 13.1.2016). Symbolically achieving this target conjures up the imaginary of German fiscal responsibil- ity versus the imaginary of Southern fiscal profligacy, implying that Southern Europe should change its socio-cultural norms and conventions to become more like Germany. As was demonstrated during the Eurozone debt crisis, Ger- many is the largest creditor country in the Eurozone and thus wields enormous structural and asymmetrical power against debtor countries (Dyson 2010). In other words, Germany’s strong tradition of deficit fetishism functions as an ideational and material roadmap to advance its objectives to institutionalize restrictive fiscal norms across the EU against a Keynesian focus on boosting aggregate demand. However, Germany’s strength in creating a discursive environment of fiscal norm-setting must be seen against the background of the weakness of other European member states. The French-German axis and its traditional division between the Grand Nation acting as the political player and Germany as the economic leader has given rise to German domination of both fields. Recogniz- ing the shifting power constellation, both Nicolas Sarkozy, former French con- servative president, and François Holland, the current socialist president, have accepted this subordinate role – presumably a necessary concession for remain- ing at the European helm of power. Outside both the Eurozone and the Schen- gen agreement, Britain is simultaneously distracted with its internal debate on whether to stay in the European Union, and it is a significant fact that it has mostly been uninvolved in the Ukrainian crisis. As a result, Angela Merkel has strengthened her global geopolitical position. Speaking fluent Russian, she has become the most important interloper between the superpowers for finding ways to resolve the Ukrainian conflict. Her very presence demonstrated this during the 2015 Minsk negotiations in Belarus between Russia, Ukraine, Ger- many and France. Moreover, she has consecutively been cited as one of the most powerful political European leaders by Forbes business magazine. In addition, Time magazine has chosen her as the 2015 Person of the Year for her engage- ment in resolving the Greek crisis, her moral leadership in the refugee crisis, her commitment to resolving the crisis in the Ukraine, and her resolute solidar- ity with France in response to the fatal terrorist attacks in Paris during 2015. This positive German political and economic imaginary was challenged, however, by the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis. Deep ruptures emerged between the northern creditor countries (Germany, Finland, Austria and the BRIGITTE YOUNG — 3 Netherlands) and the economically weaker and indebted southern periphery. The standoff between an economically powerful Germany and the economically weaker peripheral countries has been further aggravated by a new East-West ref- ugee rift. Angela Merkel is hailed by many for her moral leadership in opening the German borders, for disregarding the Dublin agreement (the rule that refu- gees have to seek asylum in countries of their entry point), and for her response to the closure of the Hungarian borders to incoming refugees from the Balkan route in the summer of 2015. At the same time, many Eastern European mem- ber states refuse to accept the refugee quotas negotiated by the EU-Commission to settle within their borders. This present rift between EU member states from the East and West is not only a crisis on humanitarian grounds; it is also a huge challenge to the survival of the European Union itself. Even the President of the EU Parliament, Martin Schulz, has voiced his concern that the disintegration of Europe is a real possibility (SpiegelOnline 25.12.2015). Germany and the EU are thus faced with manifold and multifaceted prob- lems. In what follows, this essay aims to explain the following: the German success story in the midst of such regional and global turbulences; the issue of whether the German model can be replicated by other member states; and whether this model is sustainable in both the short and long terms. In order to explicate these questions, two different imaginaries regarding the German eco- nomic success story are presented. One relies on a domestic explanation citing the structural reforms of Chancellor Gerhard Schröder (SPD) and the subse- quent competitiveness of Germany’s