World Bank Group Assistance to Low-Income Fragile and Conflict-Affected States
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World Bank Group Assistance to Low-Income Fragile and Conflict-Affected States An Independent Evaluation Appendixes Contents Abbreviations Appendixes APPENDIX A. EVALUATION METHODOLOGY .................................................................................... 1 APPENDIX B. CAMEROON ................................................................................................................... 5 APPENDIX C. DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO ....................................................................... 17 APPENDIX D. NEPAL ........................................................................................................................... 29 APPENDIX E. SIERRA LEONE ............................................................................................................ 41 APPENDIX F. SOLOMON ISLANDS .................................................................................................... 53 APPENDIX G. REPUBLIC OF YEMEN ................................................................................................. 65 APPENDIX H. PERCEPTION SURVEY OF WORLD BANK GROUP STAFF AND STAKEHOLDERS77 APPENDIX I. FRAGILE AND CONFLICT-AFFECTED STATES STATUS AND THE MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS ...................................................................................................................... 87 APPENDIX J. ASSESSING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DEVELOPMENT POLICY LOANS AND COUNTRY POLICY AND INSTITUTIONAL ASSESSMENT RATINGS ............................................... 97 APPENDIX K. WORLD BANK ASSISTANCE TO AGRICULTURE IN LOW-INCOME FRAGILE AND CONFLICT-AFFECTED STATES ....................................................................................................... 107 APPENDIX L. MIGRATION IN LOW-INCOME FRAGILE AND CONFLICT-AFFECTED STATES .... 117 APPENDIX M. BUDGET ANALYSIS .................................................................................................. 121 APPENDIX N. STATISTICAL TABLES .............................................................................................. 135 APPENDIX O. LIST OF PEOPLE MET ............................................................................................... 151 iii Abbreviations AAA analytical and advisory activities ADB Asian Development Bank AfDB African Development Bank ARD agriculture and rural development AS advisory services CAS country assistance strategy CASA Conflict-Affected States in Africa CASCR Country Assistance Strategy Completion Report CCSD Center on Conflict, Security and Development CDD community-driven development CEWG Core Economic Working Group CGD Center for Global Development CPA Comprehensive Peace Agreement CPE Country Program Evaluation CPIA Country Policy and Institutional Assessment DDR demobilization, disarmament, and reintegration DFID U.K. Department for International Development DPL Development Policy Lending DPO Development Policy Operation DRC Democratic Republic of Congo EITI Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative ESW economic and sector work EU European Union FCS fragile and conflict-affected states FPD Financial and Private Sector Development Network GDP gross domestic product HDI Human Development Index HIPC heavily indebted poor countries IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development IDA International Development Association IEG Independent Evaluation Group IFC AS IFC Advisory Services IFC International Finance Corporation ISN Interim Strategy Note J4P Justice for the Poor MDG Millennium Development Goal MDTF multi-donor trust fund MIGA Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency ODA official development assistance OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OPCS Operations Policy and Country Services PAF Poverty Alleviation Fund PCR Project Completion Report PFM public financial management PIU Program Implementation Unit PMU Project Management Unit iv ABBREVIATIONS PPAR Project Performance Assessment Report PPP purchasing power parity PRS Pacific Regional Strategy PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper PSD private sector development RAMSI Regional Assistance Mission to the Solomon Islands SDN Sustainable Development Network SFD Social Fund for Development SMEs small and medium enterprises SSA Sub-Saharan Africa SWF Social Welfare Fund TF trust fund TSS Transitional Support Strategy UN United Nations UNDP United Nations Development Programme WDI World Development Indicator WDR World Development Report XPSR Expanded Project Supervision Report All dollar amounts are in U.S. dollars unless otherwise indicated. v Appendix A. Evaluation Methodology 1. The evaluation has used quantitative and qualitative methods for the assessment. Data were obtained from multiple sources and results triangulated and synthesized to answer the evaluation questions. Data on the portfolio, administrative budget, and human resources came from Bank Group databases and previous Independent Evaluation Group (IEG) evaluations. They were subjected to comparative analysis both over time and across country groups, comparing results from fragile and conflicted-affected states (FCS) with countries that were never on the FCS list among International Development Association (IDA) only countries. International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) countries are not covered by this evaluation. Time series comparison for portfolio data covers the period 2001–2012, which was subdivided into two equal periods for comparative analysis. The analysis of databases was comprehensive, drawing on the entire universe available, while sampling was used for more targeted research methods. 2. The primary data collection and analytical methods used were: a. Country case studies of countries selected through purposive sampling in six FCS, including three—the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Sierra Leone, and the Solomon Islands—with persistent fragility; and three countries—Cameroon, Nepal, and Yemen—that were on the FCS list during part of the FY06–12 period. The country case studies and three previous country program evaluations on Afghanistan, Liberia, and Timor-Leste were used for an in-depth assessment of the Bank Group’s assistance programs and the efficacy of partnerships in these countries, including the strategies, lending program, analytical work and technical assistance, and advisory services. b. Secondary analysis of IEG’s microevaluations of the Bank Group’s lending/grant/investment /guarantee portfolio in FCS from Bank Implementation Completion Report Reviews and Project Performance Assessment Reports (PPARs); the International Finance Corporation’s (IFC) Expanded Project Supervision Reports and Advisory Services Project Completion Reports; and the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency’s (MIGA) Project Evaluation Reports. c. Analysis of aid and growth in FCS based on comparative analysis of official development assistance from different sources, and the macroeconomic indicators and key determinants of growth in FCS. 1 APPENDIX A EVALUATION METHODOLOGY d. Assessment of gender as a cross-cutting theme. The evaluation includes a review of Bank Group support for gender in FCS through an assessment of the contributions of relevant analytical work, country assistance strategies, and gender mainstreaming in the lending/grant/guarantee portfolio. More specific analysis of the impact of gender support was derived from the country case studies. e. Special reviews were undertaken of all 33 PPARS carried out by IEG in FCS from FY07–12; the health and education portfolio in FCS from FY07–12; and a sample of one-third of the projects on community-driven development, microfinance, and demobilization, disarmament, and reintegration (DDR) to assess gender effects using standard questionnaire templates for each of these reviews. These reviews of available project documentation and previous IEG evaluations assessed the strategy, design, implementation, monitoring and evaluation, overall treatment of FCS issues, and for the third set of sample projects, the treatment of gender in these projects. f. Analytical work, including econometric analysis were undertaken to examine the relationship between the use of budget support and changes in Country Policy and Institutional Assessment ratings over time. The results from portfolio outcome analysis were also verified through econometric analysis. g. Analysis of staffing data to compare in-country deployment in FCS with that in the other 31 Never FCS. This analysis was supplemented by qualitative assessments of staff support to FCS in the case study countries. h. World Bank administrative budgets for the 33 FCS from FY01–12 were analyzed and compared with the budgets for all 31 Never FCS to assess changes in operational budgets and expenditure patterns over time. i. A review of multi-donor trust funds (MDTFs) in FCS, including the six single- country multisector MDTFs and two multicountry MDTFs focusing on DDR. A field visit to Haiti was also undertaken as part of the MDTF review. j. Perception surveys of World Bank, IFC, and MIGA staff and in-country stakeholders were also undertaken to obtain feedback on Bank Group engagement in FCS. The surveys were fielded toward the end of the evaluation in July and August 2013 using a Google survey platform. The World Bank staff survey was sent to 745 Bank Staff across Bank headquarters, FCS country offices, and regional offices; 143 staff responded. The IFC and MIGA staff survey was sent to 436 staff working on FCS issues; 64 responses were received. The stakeholder survey was sent to 316