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Birmingham Education Suffi ciency Requirements November 2013 Birmingham Education Sufficiency Requirements November 2013 Contents Page 1. Introduction 1 Purpose Growth Context Challenges and Opportunities 2. Birmingham Basic Need Strategy 3 3. Headline School Place Requirements in Birmingham 2013-2019 5 4. Requirements by Phase and Type of Provision Special Provision Additional Space Requirements 2013-2014 7 Early Years Additional Place Requirements 2013-2014 9 Primary School Additional Place Requirements 2013-2016 11 Secondary School Additional Place Requirements 2014-2019 14 5. Appendices Appendix 1: Forecasting Methodology for Mainstream School Places 17 Appendix 2: Education Sufficiency Process Map 22 6. Maps Maps Set A - Special Schools, Resource Bases and Early Years Localities 24 Maps Set B - Primary Phase Growth and Capacity 27 Maps Set C - Secondary Phase Growth and Capacity 30 Maps Set D - Secondary Phase Requirements 2014-2019 36 BCC Education Sufficiency Requirements November 2013 v1 1 Introduction Purpose This document addresses Birmingham City Council’s key priority to provide sufficient, suitable education places to meet increased demand, both in Early Years and School-age education settings. It details our forecast requirements for early years and school places from 2013 and sets out how we intend to work with our education partners to secure sufficient, suitable, sustainable provision of high quality, located where needed. Growth Context: Birth Rate Increase and Net Migration into Birmingham The Local Authority has a statutory duty to meet Basic Need by ensuring that every child of school age is provided with a school place. This is particularly challenging during the current extended period of increased birth rates in Birmingham, as illustrated in Figure 1 below. Fig. 1: Annual Births in Birmingham for Year of Entry into Reception and Year 7 Year of Entry into Reception / Year 7 In addition to the increasing birth rate, Birmingham schools face varying rates of arrival and departure of families into the city at different points in the year. Recent patterns of net migration into Birmingham Primary schools are illustrated in Figure 2 overleaf and show a significant increases in net migration into the city since 2010, which is creating additional pressure on school places. It is reasonable at this time to plan for each primary cohort to grow by between 15 and 30 FE (i.e. 450 – 900 places) between Reception and Year 6, with the majority of net migration concentrated from Reception to Year 4. BCC Education Sufficiency Requirements November 2013 v1 2 Fig. 2 : Annual Net Migration into Birmingham Primary Schools by Year Group from Reception (Y0) to Year 6 Challenges and Opportunities within our Changing Education Landscape The context of a fast changing education landscape within the current socio-economic climate creates specific challenges and opportunities in meeting Basic Need in Birmingham. Forecasting of pupil place requirements is challenging due to the unpredictable nature of net migration and the potential for new housing development to impact on requirements Forecasting of special school place requirements is particularly challenging due to changing patterns of demand across the population of young people with complex needs Increased net migration of the past 3 years has had an impact on the level of surplus places particularly from Reception to Year 4, significantly reducing the flexibility we require to meet local needs in some parts of the city The optimum location for new places to be provided can change rapidly as Academies and Free Schools may choose to increase the number of places they offer It is challenging for schools that expand to maintain momentum on school improvement while creating additional places Annual Basic Need Capital Grant funding to the Local Authority falls short of requirements. Allocations are difficult to predict and the timescales in which funding is made available mean we can only commit Basic Need capital investment in a staged approach, one year at a time A more detailed understanding of the potential capacity within the education estate is leading to greater opportunities to use existing space more creatively to meet Basic Need There is significant potential for Academies and Free Schools to provide additional places that can meet Basic Need pressures and reduce Basic Need requirements. There are also risks that expansion of Free Schools and Academies may create overprovision (i.e. above Department for Education recommended level of 5% surplus places) BCC Education Sufficiency Requirements November 2013 v1 3 Birmingham Basic Need Strategy Our strategy in Birmingham to meet Basic Need has 3 key strands: i) Make optimum use of existing space, buildings and sites to provide sufficient, suitable, high quality additional places where needed. ii) Work with Free Schools and Academies to meet Basic Need through their expansion plans iii) Allocate annual Basic Need Capital investment effectively and efficiently to areas where basic need requirements can only be met through either re-modelling, refurbishment or new-build projects, ensuring that the needs of our most vulnerable young people are prioritised and capital projects make best use of existing resources. We will seek to maximise access to capital funding for Basic Need projects through robust forecasting of requirements, successful bidding as opportunities arise and exploration of alternative funding/delivery models to provide additional school places. Placing Schools at the Heart of Meeting Basic Need To place schools at the heart of meeting Basic Need in Birmingham, we will i) Share requirements for additional places regularly with all school partners and Early Years providers ii) Invite Academies and Free Schools to share and co-ordinate their expansion intentions so that requirements can be modified to factor in new provision iii) Invite schools and education providers to express interest in expanding their provision in order to identify optimum solutions to meeting Basic Need and, where necessary, identify projects for Basic Need capital investment Expressions of Interest in expansion from school partners will be evaluated against the following key criteria: i) Location in relation to Basic Need i.e. how well the additional places are located to meet growth and, in the case of special school provision, whether the school is able to meet the needs of the additional young people requiring a special school place ii) Standards in the school: it is expected that schools that expand will be Outstanding or Good* iii) The capacity of the school to provide suitable accommodation on the site, within existing space and within planning / buildability constraints iv) Popularity of the school v) Potential of any expansion to create overprovision in an area *Where no solution to a requirement for additional places can be found that meets this criterion, consideration will be given to expansion solutions where a school can evidence sufficient leadership capacity and standards are improving towards good. BCC Education Sufficiency Requirements November 2013 v1 4 Headline School Place Requirements in Birmingham 2013-2019 A. 2013-14 The majority of requirements for 2013-14 have been previously identified and are being met through the approved Schools Capital Programme. However, following a complete review of our school place forecasts, some anticipated requirements have changed : i) There is an immediate need for additional space within Special Schools for young people with complex needs as a result of increased demand. Additional Resource Base provision is also required to meet requirements for special provision. ii) 4,500 Early Years Additional Places are needed to meet the new Government requirements for provision for vulnerable 2-year olds, who are entitled to 15 hours free nursery provision. For 2013/14 these will be provided in the main by Private, Voluntary and Independent Sector (PVI) providers. iii) Additional Primary School places are required from Reception through to Year 4 above those already being delivered, as a result of increased “cohort” growth from net migration into the city. iv) By 2014 there will be a need for fewer new secondary school places than originally forecast: the opening of new Free Schools provision in Birmingham and the decision of a number of Academies to increase their Published Admission Numbers mean that our requirements for Additional Secondary Places are now isolated to a small number of pressure points. These requirements may further reduce through expansion of Academies. There is an increased risk of overprovision of secondary school places in some parts of the city. Wherever possible, additional requirements for 2013-2015 that have not already been identified within the Schools Capital programme 2013-15 will be delivered without major capital investment i.e. within existing capacity. B. Beyond 2014 i) We anticipate the demand for Special School Additional Places and Resource Base places will continue to rise in line with current trends and that additional spaces will be required to meet this demand. We expect to publish details of forecast special provision space requirements for 2015- 2018 by January 2014, in line with the current consultation process for the SEN&D Strategy. ii) A further 5,500 Early Years Additional Places will be needed from 2014 to meet the new Government requirements for provision for vulnerable 2-year olds. iii) Additional Primary School places will be required