ALLIED SOCIAL SCIENCE ASSOCIATIONS ALLIED SOCIAL SCIENCE ASSOCIATIONS China Data Institute Booth: 508 http:// chinadatacenter.net/ http:// china-data-online.com/ China Data Lab The New Platform for China Studies http://chinadatalab.net * * * China Data Online Statistics – Census - GIS The China Data Online has a new look with many new features: . Statistical Datasheets provides about 270,000 statistical tables from all provincial yearbooks and some other sources with full text search function and metadata. Census Maps covers more than 7 million census maps with data by province, city, county or even township, including population census 2000 and 2010, economic census 2004 and 2008, basic unit census 2001, and industrial census 1995. Statistical Charts provides a rich collection of statistical charts for those monthly and yearly statistics at country, province, prefecture city and county levels with full text search function and metadata. 2020 . Updated data in China Geo-Explorer, including yearly statistics, census data, land use and night-time light data. PO Box 3069, Ann Arbor, MI 48106, USA ASSAALLIED SOCIAL SCIENCE ASSOCIATIONS TEL: (734)680-3943 / FAX: (734) 828-1486 / EMAIL: [email protected] Western Economic Association International weai.org Congratulations to the American Economic Association’s It’s not only 2019 Distinguished Fellows: what you think Olivier Blanchard it’s who you share it with. Oliver Hart Contemporary Upcoming Economic Policy Conferences Published since 1982, CEP Present or Discuss a Paper, features research and analysis Organize or Chair a Session on issues of vital concern to 16th International Conference Edward Lazear business, government, and other Shanghai, March 19–22, 2020 decision makers. 95th Annual Conference Economic Inquiry Denver, Colorado A general-interest journal June 26–30, 2020 Ariel Pakes published since 1962, EI Upcoming sites include authors include over 20 Nobel Honolulu, Melbourne, Laureates. Its Editorial Board Portland, San Diego, Seattle, features highly-regarded and more. specialized field co-editors. Margaret Slade Graduate Student Allied Societies Whether your group is long- Workshop Sixteen top Ph.D. candidates established or simply part of an selected each year for hands-on Presentations on January 4, 4:40 pm, emerging specialty, WEAI can experience in job-market paper Marriott Marquis San Diego, help bring your members presentation skills and interview together and increase your Marriott Grand Ballroom 7 - 8 - 9 techniques. visibility within the discipline. Allied Social Science Associations Program San Diego, CA January 3–5, 2020 Contract negotiations, management, and meeting arrangements for ASSA meetings are conducted by the American Economic Association. Participants should be aware that the media has open access to all sessions and events at the meetings. i Thanks to the 2020 American Economic Association Program Committee Members Janet Yellen, Chair Joseph Aldy Martha Bailey Leah Boustan Yan Chen Karen Dynan Kristin Forbes Paola Giuliano Rebecca Henderson Lawrence Katz Laurence Kotlikoff Niko Matouschek Andrew Metrick Edward Miguel Dani Rodrik David Romer Fiona Scott Morton Tavneet Suri Cover Art—“San Diego Skyline with Mountains” by Kevin E. Cahill (Colored Pencil, 15” x 20”). Kevin is a partner at ECONorthwest and a research economist at the Center on Aging & Work at Boston College. Kevin invites you to visit his personal website at www.kcahillstudios.com. ii AEA Code of Professional Conduct Adopted April 20, 2018 The American Economic Association holds that principles of professional conduct should guide economists in academia, government, nonprofit organizations, and the private sector. The AEA’s founding purpose of “the encouragement of economic research” requires intellectual and professional integrity. Integrity demands honesty, care, and transparency in conducting and presenting research; disinterested assessment of ideas; acknowledgement of limits of expertise; and disclosure of real and perceived conflicts of interest. The AEA encourages the “perfect freedom of economic discussion.” This goal requires an environment where all can freely participate and where each idea is considered on its own merits. Economists have a professional obligation to conduct civil and respectful discourse in all forums, including those that allow confidential or anonymous participation. The AEA seeks to create a professional environment with equal opportunity and fair treatment for all economists, regardless of age, sex, gender identity and expression, race, ethnicity, national origin, religion, sexual orientation, disability, health condition, marital status, parental status, genetic information, political affiliation, professional status, or personal connections. Economists have both an individual responsibility for their own conduct, and a collective responsibility to promote professional conduct. These responsibilities include developing institutional arrangements and a professional environment that promote free expression concerning economics. These responsibilities also include supporting participation and advancement in the economics profession by individuals from all backgrounds, including particularly those that have been historically underrepresented. The AEA strives to promote these principles through its activities. iii AEA Policy on Harassment and Discrimination The AEA does not tolerate harassment or discrimination in any of its activities. Unacceptable behavior includes, but is not limited to: • Solicitation of emotional or physical intimacy despite expressions or indications that it is unwelcome • Solicitation of emotional or physical intimacy accompanied by real or implied threat of personal or professional harm • Intentionally intimidating, threatening, harassing, or abusive actions or remarks (both spoken and in other media) • Prejudicial actions or comments that undermine the principles of equal opportunity, fair treatment, or free academic exchange • Deliberate intimidation, stalking, or following • Harassing photography or recording • Sustained or aggressive disruption of talks or other activities that undermine free academic exchange • Physical assault (including unwelcome touching or groping) • Real or implied threat of physical harm Individuals violating this policy may be subject to disciplinary action. The AEA reserves the right to take such actions including, but not limited to, removing an individual from an AEA activity without warning, prohibiting an individual from participating in any future AEA activities, terminating an individual’s AEA membership, and notifying an individual’s employer. Retaliation against any person who files a complaint, or assists in the investigation of such a complaint, is also a violation of this policy and may likewise be subject to disciplinary action. The AEA views it as the responsibility of each individual member to be proactive in helping to mitigate or avoid harm when the member witnesses any unacceptable behavior. iv Contents General Information............................... vi ASSA Hotels .....................................x Listing of Advertisers and Exhibitors ............... xxvi ASSA Executive Officers........................ xxviii Summary of Sessions by Organization ..............xxxii Daily Program of Events ............................1 AEA Poster Session ...............................29 Program of Sessions Thursday, January 2 .........................57 Friday, January 3 ...........................58 Saturday, January 4 ........................172 Sunday, January 5 .........................308 Subject Area Index...............................402 Index of Participants .............................406 v General Information PROGRAM SCHEDULES A listing of sessions where papers will be presented and another covering activities such as business meetings and receptions are provided in this program. Admittance is limited to those wearing badges. Each listing is arranged chronologically by date and time of the activity. The hotel and room location for each session and function are indicated. CONVENTION FACILITIES Thirty-three hotels are being used for housing. The $30 per night premium for the headquarters hotel is rebated to ASSA to help cover the cost of the meetings. Sessions and other convention functions are in the San Diego Marriott Marquis and Marina (headquarters hotel) and the Manchester Grand Hyatt San Diego (co-headquarters hotel). A map of San Diego indicating the locations of the hotels, an alphabetical listing of function rooms within the hotels, and hotel floor plans are in the next section of this book. Registration and Exhibits are located in the San Diego Marriott Marquis and Marina (headquarters hotel), North Tower, First Floor, Pacific Ballroom. The Interview Tables are located at the Manchester Grand Hyatt San Diego Grand Hall A–C. REGISTRATION Everyone must register including speakers, discussants, and administrators who will be occupying an ASSA hotel room at the convention rate. Identification badges are required for admission to all sessions and activities. On-site and pre-registrants may pick up their registration packets in the San Diego Marriott Marquis and Marina (headquarters hotel), North Tower, First Floor, Pacific Ballroom 14 –17. On-site registration fee is $145. Full time student registration fee is $75. Pre-registration and on-site registration booths are open as follows: Thursday, January 2 1:30 pm to 9:00 pm* Friday, January 3 7:30 am to 5:00 pm*