How Important are Dual Economy Effects for Aggregate Productivity? Dietrich Vollratha University of Houston Abstract: This paper brings together development accounting techniques and the dual economy model to address the role that factor markets have in creating variation in aggregate total factor productivity (TFP).Developmentaccountingresearchhasshownthatmuchofthevariationinincomeacrosscountries can be attributed to differences in TFP. The dual economy model suggests that aggregate productivity is depressed by having too many factors to low productivity work in agriculture. Data show large differences in marginal products of similar factors within many developing countries, offering prima facie evidence of this misallocation. Using a simple two-sector decomposition of the economy, this article estimates the role of these misallocations in accounting for the cross-country income distribution. A key contribution is the ability to bring sector specific data on human and physical capital stocks to the analysis. Variation across countries in the degree of misallocation is shown to account for 30 — 40% of the variation in income per capita, and up to 80% of the variation in aggregate TFP. JEL Codes: O1, O4, Q1 Keywords: Resource allocation; Labor allocation; Dual economy; Income distribution; Factor markets; TFP a) I’d like to thank Francesco Caselli, Areendam Chanda, Carl-Johan Dalgaard, Jim Feyrer, Oded Galor, Doug Gollin, Vernon Henderson, Peter Howitt, Mike Jerzmanowksi, Omer Moav, Malhar Nabar, Jonathan Temple, David Weil, and an anonymous referee for helpful comments and advice. In addition, the participants at the Brown Macroeconomics Seminar, Northeast Universities Development Conference and Brown Macro Lunches were very helpful. All errors are, of course, my own. Department of Economics, 201C McElhinney Hall, Houston, TX 77204
[email protected] 1 1Introduction One of the most persistent relationships in economic development is the inverse one between income and agriculture, seen here in figure 1.