Center for Strategic and International Studies 1616 Rhode Island Avenue NW Washington, DC 20036 Phone: 1.202.775.3270 Web: www.csis.org/burke/reports The Arab Gulf States and Iran: Military Spending, Modernization, and the Shifting Military Balance Anthony H. Cordesman with the Assistance of Nicholas Harrington Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy
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[email protected] The military balance between Iran, its Arab neighbors, and the United States has been a critical military issue in the Middle East since at least the rise of Nasser in the 1950s. The risks this arms race presents in terms of a future conflict have not diminished with time, and many elements of the regional arms race have accelerated sharply in recent years. This report compares a range of sources to trace the history of the Gulf arms race in terms of military expenditures, arms transfers, and comparative rates of military modernization. In the process, it examines the economic burden on the Gulf states of these military expenditures and arms transfers, the recent shifts in the balance in terms of the major elements of conventional warfighting capability, and the impact of a steady shift towards options for asymmetric warfare. It draws heavily on both official open-source reporting by the United States government and the work of major research centers like the International Institute for Security Studies (IISS) and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), as well as variety of other think tanks and commercial research centers.