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Emerging Payments North America United States TMT Payments, Processors, & IT Services Deutsche Bank Markets Research Industry Date 12 April 2017 Emerging Payments North America United States TMT Payments, Processors, & IT Services Bryan Keane Research Analyst (+1) 415 617-4246 [email protected] Ashish Sabadra Research Analyst (+1) 415 617-3329 [email protected] Korey Marcello Research Associate (+1) 904 527-6235 [email protected] Mahesh Dass Research Associate (+1) 415 617-2842 [email protected] F.I.T.T. for investors Leveraging Platform Synergies to Break Adoption Barriers Platforms best positioned to drive digital growth Platform-based approaches with complementary value-add services focused on accelerating commerce through enhancing the customer experience while providing frictionless payments are best positioned to capture the growing digital payments marketplace. Opening up payments through data services and security APIs has the potential to drive significant innovation across the landscape especially as connected and contextual commerce gain traction. We believe V/MA enabling payment infrastructure platforms through tokenization and opening payment APIs, PYPL’s commerce platform/seamless checkout solution (OneTouch) combined with Braintree/ Venmo, and SQ digitizing small business services remain the best positioned public payment companies to revolutionize the payments industry. ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Distributed on: 13/04/2017 04:12:56 GMT Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 083/04/2017. 0bed7b6cf11c Deutsche Bank Markets Research North America Industry Date United States 12 April 2017 TMT Emerging Payments Payments, Processors, & FITT Research IT Services Bryan Keane Research Analyst Leveraging Platform Synergies to (+1) 415 617-4246 Break Adoption Barriers [email protected] Platforms best positioned to drive digital growth Ashish Sabadra Platform-based approaches with complementary value-add services focused Research Analyst on accelerating commerce through enhancing the customer experience while (+1) 415 617-3329 providing frictionless payments are best positioned to capture the growing [email protected] digital payments marketplace. Opening up payments through data services and security APIs has the potential to drive significant innovation across the Korey Marcello landscape especially as connected and contextual commerce gain traction. We believe V/MA enabling payment infrastructure platforms through tokenization Research Associate and opening payment APIs, PYPL’s commerce platform/seamless checkout (+1) 904 527-6235 solution (OneTouch) combined with Braintree/ Venmo, and SQ digitizing small [email protected] business services remain the best positioned public payment companies to revolutionize the payments industry. Mahesh Dass Research Associate Differentiated approaches to platform-based payments (+1) 415 617-2842 V/MA’s platform strategy leverages VDEP (Visa Digital Enablement [email protected] Program)/MDES (MasterCard Digital Enablement Service) to enable payment transactions over their respective rails and, importantly, in any form factor including card, mobile, or IoPT (Internet of Payment Things). Networks’ Focus turning to monetization platforms could help entrench their presence in the evolving payments space Although initial mobile payment and, more importantly, help earn incremental economics by capturing a higher developments were geared toward percentage of processed transactions while also monetizing value-added driving adoption and acceptance, services such as targeted offers and loyalty. PYPL’s commerce platform, focus has shifted to improving encompassing +15m merchants and 185m+ consumers, positions it well to monetization. We believe Pay with expand two-sided acceptance at scale. Traditional offerings complemented by Venmo remains a significant a robust platform offering (Braintree at the center) expand its ability to accept opportunity and conservatively any form of payment while Venmo, whose social platform is revolutionizing estimate potential contribution to P2P, is poised for expansion of merchant acceptance. Platform-based POS revenue growth in FY20 of ~3.5pts and (point of sale) solutions can drive increased customer traffic/engagement, given the higher transaction margins higher ticket/basket sizes, improved consumer experiences as well as driven by cheaper funding sources enhanced business management capabilities for merchants in-store. We (ACH, Balance), estimate potential EPS believe SQ’s cloud-based POS software technology has a significant advantage contribution of $0.28 in FY20. In by controlling the end-to-end commerce experience (not just payments), addition, working capital loans to enabling small merchant growth. In addition, SQ is moving up-market by merchants and/or installment plans adding vertical specific solutions (a key requirement in the mid-market) provided by PayPal, Square, and through a build (Square for Retail) and partner approach. Alipay leveraging Big data offer high Cracking the payments code for the gig economy margin revenue opportunities. End-to-end payment flows for the Marketplace economy introduce a whole Providers are also emphasizing efforts host of challenges such as paying sub-merchants, identity verification, flexible on channels where adoption is easier transfer, tax reporting, and split transactions. These challenges have been as well as use cases which offer cracked by Braintree Marketplace, Stripe Connect, Adyen MarketPay, and differentiated value propositions. WePay solutions, which offer differentiated solutions for online merchants and Accordingly, we believe in-app and in- mobile app developers. Next-gen players are more nimble, flexible, and fast to browser will dominate mobile market, which along with the lightweight APIs and easy on-boarding process payments while in-store mobile have helped to reduce the integration complexities. In addition, these players payments will be predominantly are at the cutting edge of machine learning (ML)/artificial intelligence (AI) for focused on differentiated value offering sophisticated fraud prevention tools helping lower charge backs, propositions such as omni-channel which is a much larger issue in the CNP environment. support, order ahead, and offer/coupon redemption. ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 083/04/2017. 12 April 2017 Payments, Processors, & IT Services Emerging Payments Table Of Contents Portfolio Summary Top 15 Emerging Trends in Payments to Monitor – Cashing in on the Digital Migration .................................................. 6 #1 Platform-based approach best positioned to drive sustained engagement . 6 #2 Focusing on check-in for driving frictionless check-out .............................. 7 #3 Partnerships helping increase ubiquity of mobile payments........................ 8 #4 Focus shifting from gaining adoption to monetizing key assets .................. 8 #5 Networks opening their rails to deliver next-generation innovation ............ 9 #6 Powering payments for the marketplace economy ..................................... 9 #7 Connected & contextual commerce paving the way for digital payments .. 9 #8 Evolving P2P competitive landscape and real-time payment initiatives .... 10 #9 Tokenization the backbone of mobile payment security ............................ 10 #10 Blockchain powering B2B payments and back-office efficiency ............. 10 #11 Merchant acquirers focus on verticalized payments market ................... 11 #12 Continued global secular migration to secure, digital payments ............. 11 #13 China represents a large, untapped opportunity for the global networks 12 #14 PIN debit networks building PINless and signature capabilities .............. 12 #15 European regulations open domestic market opportunities .................... 13 Platform-Based Approach Best Positioned ....................... 14 Platform-based approach key to ubiquitous mobile payments ......................... 14 Invisible checkout delivers the best experiences and conversions ................... 15 Partnership based approach driving value to both sides .................................. 16 Connected Commerce Driving Invisible Check-Out .......................................... 17 How the payment networks fit in to IOT ........................................................... 19 Other players in IOT .......................................................................................... 20 APIs and SDKs Opening Digital Payment Opportunities ... 22 Network developer platforms enabling digital payments ................................. 22 Braintree benefitting from integration
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