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Russia's Geostrategic Activities in Eastern Europe

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Russia's Geostrategic Activities in Eastern Europe Russia’s Geostrategic Activities in Eastern Europe A study of Russian actions targeting Belarus, Georgia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Poland and Ukraine 2020 Editor: David Batashvili Technical Editor: Artem Melik-Nubarov Authors: David Batashvili Hanna Shelest Dovilė Šukytė Alexander Wielgos Maciej Śmigiel All rights reserved and belong to Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form, including electronic and mechanical, without the prior written permission of the publisher. The opinions and conclusions expressed are those of the author/s and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies. The publication was made possible by the Black Sea Trust, a project of the German Marshall Fund of the United States. Opinions expressed in this publication do not necessarily represent those of the Black Sea Trust or its partners. Copyright © 2020 Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies CONTENTS Introduction........................................................................................................................................4 Executive Summary.............................................................................................................................4 Ukraine (by Hanna Shelest)...............................................................................................................10 Political Influence........................................................................................................................10 Subversion...................................................................................................................................12 Military Factor.............................................................................................................................14 Diplomatic Activities...................................................................................................................16 Economic Influence.....................................................................................................................16 Georgia (by David Batashvili).............................................................................................................22 Political Influence........................................................................................................................22 Subversion...................................................................................................................................26 Military Factor.............................................................................................................................28 Diplomatic Activities...................................................................................................................29 Economic Influence.....................................................................................................................30 Moldova (by David Batashvili)...........................................................................................................38 Political Influence........................................................................................................................38 Subversion...................................................................................................................................43 Military Factor.............................................................................................................................44 Diplomatic Activities....................................................................................................................44 Economic Influence.....................................................................................................................45 Belarus (by Alexander Wielgos).........................................................................................................52 Political Influence........................................................................................................................52 Subversion...................................................................................................................................54 Military Factor.............................................................................................................................55 Diplomatic Activities....................................................................................................................56 Economic Influence.....................................................................................................................57 Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania (by Dovilė Šukytė)...............................................................................61 Political Influence........................................................................................................................61 Subversion...................................................................................................................................65 Military Factor..............................................................................................................................68 Diplomatic Activities....................................................................................................................69 Economic Influence.....................................................................................................................71 Poland (by Maciej Śmigiel)................................................................................................................76 Political Influence........................................................................................................................76 Subversion...................................................................................................................................77 Military Factor.............................................................................................................................78 Diplomatic Activities...................................................................................................................79 Economic Influence.....................................................................................................................79 Conclusion.........................................................................................................................................82 Introduction Russian geostrategic activities in Eastern Europe have a structure and a clear unifying purpose constituting a coherent set of long-term policies directed at maximizing Russian geopolitical influence. The purpose of this paper is to raise awareness on this matter by providing a holistic overview of these activities. A group of researchers representing the Eastern European Studies Centre (Lithuania), the Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism” (Ukraine), the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies/Rondeli Foundation (Georgia) and the Warsaw Institute (Poland) joined their efforts to do so. This paper is the product of their efforts. Executive Summary The research behind this paper focused on Russia’s political influence, subversion, military activities, diplomatic activities and economic influence within the geographic area spanning Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Poland and Ukraine. Russian political influence in many of the targeted countries is conducted with the help of local openly pro-Russian parties and politicians. These political organizations push the same narratives within society as does Russian propaganda, strive to legitimize a potential transformation of a given nation’s foreign policy to make it more amenable to Moscow’s interests and generally function as supporters of Russian geopolitical influence and imperial ambitions. Many of them maintain close relationships with the Russian political elite and frequently visit Russia to meet with the Russian leadership and officials. There also are more complicated cases when politicians who nominally are not pro-Russian support policies and use rhetoric beneficial to Moscow’s geopolitical interests. In the cases of Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, another lever of Russian political influence is Moscow’s de facto effective control over the occupied and breakaway regions of these nations. Pro-Russian parties in Ukraine are the Opposition Platform – For Life and the Opposition Bloc. Support for the former is limited (it got 13 percent in the 2019 parliamentary election and polled at 14 percent in June 2020) and that for the latter is negligible. Support for pro-Russian stances used to be considerably more robust in Ukraine, especially in its eastern and southern parts until early 2014. Russia’s extreme hostility towards Ukraine after the revolution of 2013-2014, including the occupation of Crimea and the aggression in Donbas, has resulted in a dramatic decrease of pro-Russian sentiments in the country. As a consequence, openly pro-Russian parties have trouble gathering the number of votes that could make them contenders for governing Ukraine. On the other hand, some narratives amenable to Russia are supported by some of the mainstream Ukrainian politicians who generally are not considered pro-Russian. In Georgia, the main openly pro-Russian political forces are the Alliance of Patriots and the Democratic Movement – United Georgia. Both have rather small electoral support
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