Community Relations Council Northern Ireland Peace Monitoring Report Number Four September 2016 Robin Wilson Peace Monitoring Report The Northern Ireland Peace Monitoring Report Number Four Robin Wilson September 2016 3 Peace Monitoring Report Sources and acknowledgements This report draws mainly on statistics which are in the public domain. Datasets from various government departments and public bodies in Northern Ireland have been used and comparisons made with figures produced by similar organisations in England, Scotland, Wales and the Republic of Ireland. Using this variety of sources means there is no standard model that applies across the different departments and jurisdictions. Many organisations have also changed the way in which they collect their data over the years, which means that in some cases it has not been possible to provide historical perspective on a consistent basis. For some indicators, only survey-based data are available. When interpreting statistics from survey data, such as the Labour Force Survey, it is worth bearing in mind that they are estimates associated with confidence intervals (ranges in which the true value is likely, to a certain probability, to lie). In other cases where official figures may not present the full picture, such as crimes recorded by the police, survey data are included because they may provide a more accurate estimate. Data, however, never speak ‘simply for themselves’. And political debate in Northern Ireland takes a very particular, largely self-contained form. To address this and provide perspective, previous reports have included comparative international data where available and appropriate. This report builds on its predecessors by painting further international context: expert and comparative literature is added where relevant as are any benchmarks established by standard-setting bodies. Academic (as well as more numerous journalistic) references are merely indicated in parenthesis, so those who want to pursue them can do so while the text remains uncluttered. The online version includes hyperlinks for ephemeral material. References to Northern Ireland government departments, reorganised for new ministerial portfolios after the May 2016 assembly elections, are as they were at the appropriate time. The contents of the report are the responsibility of the author (generously assisted by Prof Rick Wilford on the 2016 assembly election, Dr Paul Nolan on ‘Brexit’ and the wider advisory group for the project in general) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Community Relations Council, the commissioning body. Published by the Community Relations Council, Equality House, 7-9 Shaftesbury Square, Belfast BT2 7DP (www.nicrc.org.uk). CRC gratefully acknowledges the support of the Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust for this publication. ISBN 978-1-898276-66-1 4 Foreword Foreword The Peace Monitoring Report has become an established totem to benchmark Northern Ireland’s journey to a post-conflict society. It helps remind us how far we have come and how far there is still to go, with learning and pointers to the future. This, the fourth, is no exception. Like the previous iterations, it is independently written and so may not always reflect the views of the Community Relations Council. Like its predecessors, this Peace Monitoring Report will make a major contribution to the narrative of building the peace. Devolution appears more secure than at any time in most people’s living memory. And it is a power-sharing devolution—a genuine partnership between the largest political parties representing opinion across the community. It isn’t yet clear where changes to the format of how Stormont does its business will eventually takes us. But wherever that is, political leaders need to be constantly mindful of the need to break down, not big up, the sectional nature of politics and the society it reflects. And delivery at Stormont is an issue for people across the community. There are significant messages in this report on Northern Ireland’s place in Europe post-Brexit, and its approach to social-justice issues. It indicates how 83 per cent of people here feel a sense of belonging, yet there is some way to go on issues around gender equality, ethnicity and race relations, sexual orientation and income inequality. The report highlights challenges on issues such as mental health and suicide rates. It references the need for structural change in education and housing that puts the needs of people first. And while Northern Ireland becomes more diverse than it has ever been, the report indicates that attitudes against minority ethnic communities are hardening. There are, however, many positives. Confidence in the state of community relations is recovering. There has been a reduction in physical attacks on symbolic premises. Confidence in policing is at an all-time high. And the decade of centenaries (while many difficult challenges are yet to come) has not only gone well but may be helping to transform an understanding of our shared past and our interconnected relationships going forward. 5 Foreword We are living in a Northern Ireland that is being defined and redefined as we live it. We should dwell less on the negative but be realistic about the challenges ahead and what needs addressed. We should recognise the opportunity in this next phase of the peace process, for a new Northern Ireland with an intercultural future, reaching out to all on these islands while building enriched relationships within. The fourth Peace Monitoring Report puts many of those challenges in context. I want to thank many people for helping to produce the report, not least the author, Robin Wilson, who put in such effort. It is an enormous burden to bear which he has done admirably. The advisory group which steered the project—volunteers whose collective wisdom is a marvel to behold—was simply superb. Chaired by a previous author, Dr Paul Nolan, it included leading thinkers and influencers such as Lindsay Fergus The( Detail), Prof Frank Gaffkin (Queen’s University Belfast), Prof Neil Gibson (Ulster University), Prof Adrian Guelke (QUB), Prof Paddy Hillyard (QUB), Tony McCusker (ex-chair of the Community Relations Council), Celia McKeon (Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust), Prof Gillian Robinson (UU), Prof Jennifer Todd (University College Dublin) and Dr Orna Young (academic and consultant). I would especially like to thank the funder, the Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust, without whom none of the Peace Monitoring Reports would have been possible and, of course, the staff at the Community Relations Council—especially the chief executive, Jacqueline Irwin, who demonstrates such a deep understanding of community relations and reconciliation. Peter Osborne Chair Community Relations Council 6 Contents Contents TEN KEY POINTS 11 INTRODUCTION 15 1.1 The indicator framework 15 1.2 The limitations of research 16 BACKGROUND AND CONTEXT 17 1.1 The economy 17 1.2 Society 22 DIMENSION ONE: 24 The sense of safety 1. OVERALL CRIME RATES 24 1.1 The state of the rule of law 24 1.2 Changing patterns of crime 25 2. HATE CRIME 29 2.1 Hate crime trends 29 2.2 Hate crime and intolerance 32 3. DOMESTIC VIOLENCE AND SEXUAL CRIME 34 3.1 Domestic violence 34 3.2 Sexual crime 37 4. THE PARAMILITARIES 38 4.1 Overview 38 4.2 ‘Dissident republican’ and ‘mainstream’ paramilitaries 43 4.3 ‘Loyalist’ paramilitaries 46 5. POLICING 48 5.1 Strength and composition 48 5.2 Religion, gender and ethnicity 50 5.3 The use of police powers 51 5.4 PSNI—audit and accountability 53 5.5 The burden of history 57 6. PRISONS 59 6.1 The prison population 59 6.2 Prison conditions and reform 61 6.3 Prisons and probation 62 7. SAFETY IN THE PUBLIC SPHERE 62 7.1 Internal perceptions 62 7.2 External perceptions 63 7 Contents 8. THE ‘PEACE WALLS’ 64 8.1 Making the count 64 8.2 When will the walls come down? 65 DIMENSION TWO: 67 Equality 1. WEALTH, POVERTY AND INEQUALITY 67 1.1 Overview 67 1.2 Income differentials 70 1.3 The wealthy 73 1.4 Household income 76 1.5 The assembly’s ‘anti-poverty’ strategies 81 1.6 ‘Welfare reform’ 86 2. EQUALITY AND INEQUALITY IN THE 87 LABOUR MARKET 2.1 The changing balance of the labour force 87 2.2 Unemployment and economic inactivity 90 2.3 Underemployment and insecurity 92 2.4 Youth unemployment and NEETS 93 2.5 The gender gap 94 3. EQUALITY AND INEQUALITY IN EDUCATION 95 3.1 Overview 95 3.2 Childcare 96 3.3 Primary and post-primary education 97 3.4 Class, religion, gender and ethnicity in education 98 3.5 School-leaver destinations 102 3.6 Higher education 102 3.7 Qualification and skills in the adult population 104 4. HEALTH INEQUALITIES 104 4.1 Mortality and morbidity 104 4.2 Prescription drugs 106 4.3 Abortion 107 DIMENSION THREE: 111 Cohesion and sharing 1. THE POLICY CONTEXT 111 1.1 ‘Building a united community’? 111 1.2 The wider framework 112 2. WELLBEING 113 2.1 The measurement of ‘happiness’ 113 2.2 The measurement of ‘unhappiness’ 115 2.3 Suicide 116 8 Contents 3. SHARING AND SEPARATION IN HOUSING 117 3.1 Public housing 117 3.2 Residential segregation 118 4. SHARING AND SEPARATION IN EDUCATION 119 4.1 The management of schooling 119 4.2 Integrated and shared education 121 4.3 Where do newcomers go? 122 5. SHARING PUBLIC SPACE 123 5.1 Culture wars 123 5.2 The ‘marching season’ 124 5.3 Flagging protest 125 5.4 Bonfires and murals 127 6. ARTS, SPORT AND LANGUAGE 128 6.1 The arts 128 6.2 Sport 129 6.3 Language 131 7. PARTICIPATION IN PUBLIC AND CIVIC LIFE 132 7.1 Women’s representation 132 7.2 The ethnic-minority presence 135 7.3 The LGBT presence 136 8.