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Climate Change and Future Crop Suitability in RWANDA Research Highlights – Climate Change and Future Crop Suitability in Rwanda

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Climate Change and Future Crop Suitability in RWANDA Research Highlights – Climate Change and Future Crop Suitability in Rwanda RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS Climate Change and Future Crop Suitability in RWANDA Research Highlights – Climate Change and Future Crop Suitability in Rwanda Funded by ‘Adaptation for Smallholder Agriculture Programme’ (ASAP) Phase 2. International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) Produced by the University of Cape Town Undertaken in support of the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) by: African Climate & Development Initiative (www.acdi.uct.ac.za) Climate System Analysis Group (www.csag.uct.ac.za) Environmental Policy Research Unit (www.epru.uct.ac.za) Recommended citation: Hunter. R., Crespo. O., Coldrey, K, Cronin, K, New, M. 2020. Research Highlights – Climate Change and Future Crop Suitability in Rwanda. University of Cape Town, South Africa, undertaken in support of Adaptation for Smallholder Agriculture Programme’ (ASAP) Phase 2. International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), Rome. The content and presentation of material in this report is the sole responsibility of the Authors and does not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the International Fund for Agricultural Development of the United Nations. The project team thanks the various stakeholders and contributors who have shared their knowledge and time during this study. CONTENTS Background and context . 1 Summary results . 2 Method and Approach . 3 Impacts........................................................................................3 Figure 1. Demonstration example of the distribution of crop suitability index. generated using EcoCrop ........4 Adaptive Capacity ...............................................................................5 Table 1. Ranked Adaptive Capacity (AC) indicator scores for all provinces of Rwanda ........................5 Climate projections . 6 Projected changes to Temperature in Rwanda by 2050 . 6 Table 2. Projected influence of climate change on mean monthly temperature (°C) in Rwanda at Historical and Mid-Century periods, and monthly anomalies between the two time periods ..............................6 Climate – projected changes to rainfall in Rwanda by 2050 . 7 Table 3. Projected influence of climate change on mean monthly precipitation (mm/month) in Rwanda at Historical and Mid-Century periods, and monthly anomalies between the two time periods ..................7 Climate change and its effect on crops: BEANS . 8 Climate change and its effect on crops: CASSAVA . 10 Climate change and its effect on crops: GROUNDNUTS . 12 Climate change and its effect on crops: MAIZE . 14 Climate change and its effect on crops: SWEET POTATO . 16 Summary of findings, recommendations, adaptation strategies and climate-resilient alternative for smallholder farmers . 18 Appendix tables . 18 RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS CLIMATE CHANGE AND FUTURE CROP SUITABILITY IN RWANDA BACKGROUND AND CONTEXT The Adaptation for Smallholder The full Climate Risk Analysis report Agriculture Programme (ASAP) is (accessible via the IFAD Country AGRICULTURE IN 1 a flagship programme within the page ) provides an analysis of International Fund for Agricultural inter alia i) the current and future RWANDA climate characteristics of Rwanda; Development’s (IFAD’s) portfolio Rwanda is characterised by a highly ii) the potential change in the of activities aimed at channelling productive agriculture sector, which suitability of various crops under climate and environmental finance benefits from a bimodal rainfall projected climate changes; and to smallholder farmers, and which iii) potential risks and economic system. The first rainy season, or allows IFAD country programmes impacts related to climate change, Season A, extends from September to design projects which integrate as well as potential adaptation to December, and the second considerations of the impacts of options and opportunities to season, or Season B, starts in March climate change on smallholder increase climate resilience. The and ends in May (CIAT, 2019)2. farmers. To support the integration following report provides a brief Rainfed agriculture, practiced by summary of highlighted results for of climate information and improved smallholder farmers, accounts for Rwanda, including: i) projected knowledge of climate related risks the vast majority of the planted changes to temperature and to the smallholder agriculture area. Important subsistence crops precipitation as a result of climate sector, IFAD commissioned a include roots and tubers (cassava change; and ii) impacts of climate Climate Risk Analysis to assess the change on the future suitability of and sweet potato), cereals (maize), potential impacts of climate change several major crops and resulting legumes such as beans and on several crops and commodities impacts on production across each groundnuts, and banana. Important in Rwanda. of the country’s five provinces. cash crops include coffee and tea. 1 https://www.ifad.org/en/web/operations/country/id/Rwanda 2 https://ccafs.cgiar.org/publications/climate-risk-assessment-selected-value-chain-commodities-rwanda#.Xfog3mQzbIU CLIMATE CHANGE AND FUTURE CROP SUITABILITY IN RWANDA 1 SUMMARY RESULTS The likely effects of climate change temperatures are likely to result indicate that climate change will are not consistent across the full in a complex matrix of positive result in positive impacts across extent of Rwanda’s five provinces and negative effects on the crops the country, and sweet potatoes or the crops assessed. However, assessed. The annual production of are likely to only experience very several general observations can be certain crops such as beans, maize minor negative changes (with the made. For example, all provinces and groundnuts is expected to be Southern province being the only in the study area are predicted to negatively impacted by increased negatively impacted province). experience increasing temperatures temperatures and reduced or There are also several province- throughout the year, indicated by delayed rainfall, thereby causing a specific effects on climate variables increased average monthly ‘Mean reduction in the extent of suitable and resultant crop suitability that Temperature’ as well as average production areas as well as reducing will necessitate the development monthly ‘Minimum Temperature’. the productivity of remaining areas. of tailored local-level adaptation Furthermore, all provinces are Conversely, certain crops such as plans and strategies for agricultural predicted to experience an overall sorghum, cassava and sweet potato development. The climate-related decrease in annual and seasonal are comparatively less affected by risks to agricultural households precipitation between the present the predicted climate changes and in each province are a function of day and the ‘Mid-Century’ future may be appropriate alternatives both the impact of climate change (defined by the period 2040– to be promoted in areas where on crop production, as well as 2069). In addition to the predicted the production of other crops is the adaptive capacities of each trend of reduced rainfall during expected to become marginal. community to manage and respond the two traditional growing to climate risks. It is important to seasons (Season A commencing in Production of beans, one of the note that the following analyses are September and Season B in March), most important subsistence crops, based on consideration of a narrow it is also projected that there will is predicted to undergo a decrease range of modelled variables and the be an increase in monthly rainfall in annual production ranging from resultant effects on crop suitability. during the months of December 0.8% in the Western province, up Consequently, this study cannot and January. These results may be to 8% in the Eastern province. In account for local-level factors such indicative of a delay in the onset total, it is estimated that the annual as differences in performance, of the traditional rainy seasons, production of beans across all climatic suitability and yield or alternatively may indicate that provinces will be reduced by 30 000 potential between local land races rainy seasons (particularly season tonnes, resulting in total annual or improved cultivars. In addition, A, September-December) may costs of climate-related impacts the study cannot consider or predict effectively be extended for one to of USD 15.9 million. Production the effect of different cultivation two months. However, despite the of maize is predicted to decrease methods and technologies that may latter positive changes, overall the by 1.2% in Kigali province up to be practiced within the study area. predicted trend is one of decreased 4.6% in the Western province. At Finally, in terms of predicting the annual rainfall on average, with the household level, the projected likely effects of climate change and average annual rainfall predicted decrease in production ranges from resultant risks to crop production, to decrease from 1,139 mm to 1,066 0 kg to 7 kg in the Kigali and Eastern this study cannot account for mm (i.e. a decrease of 73 mm or provinces, respectively, equivalent indirect effects of climate change on 6%). to a total decrease in national maize production of 10 692 tonnes crop production, such as increased The full study includes analyses and an annual replacement cost of vulnerability to pests and disease, of the predicted effect of climate USD 3.8 million. soil degradation or flooding/ change on various crops, including waterlogging. However, the study inter alia cereals (maize and In the
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