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Inflation Targeting and the Implications for Monetary Policy Framework in Vietnam

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Inflation Targeting and the Implications for Monetary Policy Framework in Vietnam INFLATION TARGETING AND THE IMPLICATIONS FOR MONETARY POLICY FRAMEWORK IN VIETNAM 1 INFLATION TARGETING AND THE IMPLICATIONS FOR MONETARY POLICY FRAMEWORK IN VIETNAM 2 INFLATION TARGETING AND THE IMPLICATIONS FOR MONETARY POLICY FRAMEWORK IN VIETNAM Research report RS - 02 Copy right © 2012 belongs to the Economic Committee of the National Assembly and UNDP in Vietnam. Any copy and circulation without permission of the National Assembly’s Economic Committee and UNDP is copyright infringement. 3 INFLATION TARGETING AND THE IMPLICATIONS FOR MONETARY POLICY FRAMEWORK IN VIETNAM KNOWLEDGE PUBLISHING HOUSE 4 INTRODUCTION In recent years, high inflation has always been a potential threat to the macroeconomic stability and long-term economic growth in Vietnam. The process of international integration and financial liberalization, loose macroeconomic foundation lead many people to have doubts about the stability and control of inflation in the upcoming years. This requires that we must frankly recognize the operating mechanism of monetary policy in our country today. A question which has been attracting the attention of many National Assembly deputies and economic experts is whether the operating mechanism of monetary policy at present is not really effective in the context of domestic economic that is complicated and increasingly has deeper integration into the world’s economic turmoil. With multi- monetary policy objectives, we expect to accelerate the growth rate, to control price level- inflation, to stabilize monetary as well as to use monetary policy as a supplementary instrument to stabilize budget, reduce poverty and ensure national security. In recent years, this mechanism has clearly revealed its limitations. Experiences of many countries around the world indicate that inflation targeting may be a reasonable choice for monetary policy in our country in the future in which maintaining a reasonable and stable level of inflation becomes primary objective of monetary policy to ensure macroeconomic stability. Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung during the question-and-answer session of National Assembly deputies at the 2nd session of the National Assembly XIII also emphasized that in the upcoming time the government will “actively implement the inflation targeting”. To satisfy these requirements, this study was implemented to generalize the basic theoretical issues about the inflation targeting, applying the experience of countries around the world as well as evaluating the real situation and applicability of inflation targeting mechanism in Vietnam. Especially, the study proposes the particular roadmap and groups of solution to apply this mechanism in our country in the future. This is valuable and timely contribution for legislature and government to review and take concrete action to reform the monetary policy mechanism in the context of restructuring the whole economy of our country. 5 This is a study in a series of studies based on empirical evidence associated with macroeconomic policies that are being implemented within the framework of the project “Supporting for advisory capacity, verification and monitoring macroeconomic policies” of the Economic Committee of National Assembly funded by UNDP. Research is reported by the authors of Vietnam Institute of Economics belonging to the Vietnam National Centre for Social Sciences and Humanities. All considerations, analysis, and evaluations in this report represent the independent views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of Economic Committee and Project Management Unit. It’s our honour to introduce this study to readers. Nguyen Van Giau (phD) Member of National Assembly Standing Committee Chairman of the National Assembly Economic Committee 6 This research has been conducted in the framework of project “Supporting for advisory capacity, verification and monitoring macroeconomic policies” controlled by National Assembly Economic Committee with the financial support of The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). Head of Project Steering Committee Nguyen Van Giau Chairman of the National Assembly Economic Committee Project Director Nguyen Van Phuc Vice- Chairman of the National Assembly Economic Committee Project Deputy Director Nguyen Minh Son Manager of National Assembly Office Economic Department Project manager Nguyen Tri Dung Authors To Thi Anh Duong (editor) Bui Quanh Tuan Pham Sy An Duong Thi Thanh Binh Tran Thi Kim Chi The authors would like to sincerely thank to Mr Nguyen Van Giau, Nguyen Van Phuc, Nguyen Duc Kien, Nguyen Minh Son, Nguyen Tri Dung, To Trung Thanh, Rodney Schmidt, Vu Quoc Huy, Nguyen Dai Lai and Mrs Le Thi Ngoc Lien for their significant contributions and supports. 7 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ADB Asian Development Bank MP Monetary Policy SBV State Bank of Vietnam - SBV IT Inflation Targeting Implicit IT Implicit Inflation Targeting Partial IT Partial Inflation Targeting FFIT Full-fledged inflation targeting M1 Narrow money M2 “Intermediate” money (Board Money) MB Monetary Base MS Money Supply OMO Open Market Operation IMF International Monetary Fund WTO World Trade Organization GSO General Statistics Office VND Vietnam dong USD US dollar 8 LIST OF TABLES 3.1. The motivation of inflation targeting implementation 3.2. Main conditions for applicattion inflation targeting successfully 3.3. The condition of prerequisites when IT is adopted 3.4. The inflation rate before the transition to inflation targeting framework 4.1. The inflation rate in emerging countries 4.2. GDP growth rate in emerging countries 4.3. The average annual inflation rate (CPI) and average annual GDP growth rate 4.4. Monetary policy targets and performance, 2000- 2010 LIST OF FIGURES 4.1. Economic growth in period of 2001-2010 4.2. Inflation and economic growth in period of 2000-2010 4.3. Exports, imports, and trade balance 4.4. The real growth of M2 and targets 4.5. The movement of M2 growth, economic growth, and inflation 9 CONTENTS LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ........................................................................................................................... 8 LIST OF FIGURES ......................................................................................................................................... 9 PREFACE .................................................................................................................................................. 14 CHAPTER 1 GENERAL ISSUES .................................................................................................................................... 16 STUDY OBJECTIVES AND RESEARCH QUESTIONS.................................................................. 16 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY ........................................................................................................ 17 SCOPE OF STUDY ............................................................................................................................. 17 ORGANIZATION OF STUDY ........................................................................................................... 18 OVERVIEW OF STUDIES ON INFLATION TARGETING............................................................ 18 Overview of international studies .................................................................................................. 18 The concept and key elements of inflation targeting ........................................................................ 18 Why is inflation targeting (IT)? Reasons for applying IT? Advantages/ Disadvantages of IT ...... 20 International experience in the application and implementation of inflation targeting ................ 21 Overview of domestic studies ............................................................................................................ 27 CHAPTER 2 MONETARY POLICY AND THE COORDINATION FRAMEWORK FOR MONETARY POLICY TARGETING INFLATION ................................................................................................................................................. 29 MONETARY POLICY AND ITS TARGETS ................................................................................ 29 THE TRANSMISION MECHANISIM OF MONETARY POLICY............................................ 33 Interest rate channel ......................................................................................................................... 33 Credit channel ................................................................................................................................... 33 Other assets’ prices channel ............................................................................................................. 34 Exchange rate channel ...................................................................................................................... 34 CONDITIONS FOR THE EFFECTIVE ADOPTION OF MONETARY POLICY ................... 35 MONETARY POLICY FRAMEWORKS IN THE ECONOMIC HISTORY ............................ 36 Select a better “anchor” for the monetary policy .......................................................................... 36 The “fixed exchange rate” period ...................................................................................................... 37 10 The “money supply” period ................................................................................................................ 39 The “target of inflation” period.........................................................................................................
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