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Ipsos MORI Understanding Society IPSOS VIEWS UNDERSTANDING SOCIETY Foreword Editorial: Lucy Tallentire Jayesh Navin Shah Patricia Pinakova Yasmin White Information www.ipsos-mori.com [email protected] Follow @IpsosMORI Foreword Welcome to this edition of Ipsos MORI growth, employment statistics and low efficiency in the workplace, or a risk to jobs? Social Research Institute’s Understanding productivity. While there are no quick-fix Do they understand the full implications of AI 03. 16. 28. Society. This issue, Tomorrow's Business, solutions, she suggests we should open new on society and the economy, and do they delves into the landscape of UK businesses lines of communication between businesses appreciate the full value of their personal – not only the contemporary and upcoming of different sizes, and across different sectors. data in an AI-driven world? Foreword Cyber attacks: a dangerous Solving the productivity puzzle challenges that threaten their success, but Can they create a space to share good Finally, we look at the complex world by Kelly Beaver business An interview with Gemma Tetlow, also some of the opportunities that await practice and ideas, and to develop new of cyber attacks – an increasingly everyday Can UK businesses and Chief Economist at the Institute them. Perhaps even more so than normal, ways to boost productivity together? threat to businesses. As the latest hacking charities better protect us for Government the state of the UK economy is of critical Communication is also the focus of the attacks and ransomware threats make from cyber attacks? importance to our country’s researchers, interview between Kamal and our Chief headlines in the UK and worldwide, are UK 04. policymakers and practitioners. It has Executive, Ben Page. Kamal draws on his businesses and charities up to the task of Kelly Beaver never been more important for central wealth of experience in journalism to argue protecting our data from harm? Rowena Schoo, Senior Policy and Europe 10 years Government to engage with businesses that the media, economists and business We hope you enjoy reading this edition Communications Advisor at the after the crash to deliver its Industrial Strategy, improving managers should re-engineer how they of Understanding Society, looking at today’s Department for Digital, Culture, the UK’s productivity and coordinating its communicate policy and future challenges and tomorrow’s challenges for businesses How do European businesses Media and Sport (DCMS), 32. departure from the European Union. to the general public. This, he believes, is one and the economy. We hope that the insights and global investors view Jayesh Navin Shah, Harry Williams And there it is – the elephant in the way to resolve the so-called twin deficits in of all our contributors, drawing on our own prospects in Europe? Skills gap or skills divide? room. Regardless of your views on the public understanding and public trust. research and analysis, and other contextual outcome, it is fair to say the vote to leave Work by our researchers also touches on data, will inform the debate among our Public support for investing Allan Simpson, Kelly Finnerty the European Union has transformed the similarly deep-seated structural challenges. readers on these important topics. We in UK workers’ skills post-Brexit 20. political, cultural and economic landscape First, we give an overview of business and remain committed to understanding of Britain. Brexit and the prevailing inward investment in Europe since the 2008 society from the broad range of social and We need to talk about Trinh Tu, Patricia Pinakova atmosphere of uncertainty in the UK make financial crash, and how this illuminates economic research we and others conduct, 08. automation it difficult to focus on anything else. Our the present and future prospects of the in the belief that this leads to better politics, monthly Issues Index shows that Brexit now UK and other European economies. We policy and practice. If you would like to The views of UK businesses, dominates public concern just as much as explore the UK skills shortage, and how the discuss any of the research here, please get Communicating economics MPs and the public on automation the economy did after the financial crash 10 public attitudes might help or hinder certain in touch. 35. 1 An interview with Kamal Ahmed, years ago. solutions and policy approaches. And we former Economics Editor for Mark McGeoghegan Business-as-usual is a thing of the past, consider the problems small and medium- Is the penny dropping BBC News for the Government and businesses alike. sized businesses encounter in their attempts for Britain? However, businesses and the economy will to access finance, and how the Government Kelly Beaver The move from cash still be here after March 2019, dealing with the can support their growth ambitions. Ben Page to contactless challenges that await them. In this issue, we But this edition is not just about structural 23. Managing Director, strive to create a vision for the future of the deficiencies – it’s also about technological Ipsos MORI UK economy, based on research carried out innovations that are reshaping the Your country needs Darragh McHenry Social Research Institute by business and economics experts in our workplace and the wider economy. Our (data about) you! 12. UK Social Research Institute. We shed light article on cashless payments demonstrates @KellyIpsosMORI Can AI win public hearts on important themes that risk falling under the significance of contactless to consumer Prosperous beyond Europe and minds? the radar of public interest: productivity, skills, spending behaviour. It also warns of the 39. new technologies, and trade. impact on demographic and economic A vision of trade outside the EU To help us explore these themes further, groups vulnerable to this transition, such Sarah Castell The credit they deserve we are delighted to have contributions as the homeless, the elderly, and small Joanna Crossfield, Krishna Dabhi from Gemma Tetlow, Chief Economist at family businesses unwilling to invest in card How can we improve access the Institute for Government, and Kamal payment technology. to finance for UK SMEs? Ahmed, Editorial Director and Economics We look at the role of automation and Editor at the BBC. In an interview on the UK’s artificial intelligence (AI) in the world of Matt Adey, Director of Economics productivity puzzle, Gemma discusses the work, and public perceptions of this. Do at the British Business Bank, contradictions and links between wage people believe automation is essential for Dr Rebecca Klahr, Yasmin White 2. 3. Ipsos MORI – Understanding Society November 2018 Europe 10 years after the crash – How do European businesses and global investors view prospects in Europe? Europe 10 years Allan Simpson after the crash When it comes Kelly How do European businesses and global investors view prospects in Europe? Finnerty to inward Europe has many winners investment in Figure ONE: Future expectations vs. current investment the UK, it’s a 30% Low investment and expanding High investment and expanding slightly different Hungary Croatia story. Global 20% Cyprus Austria Lithuania Germany Slovakia Netherlands Poland Portugal Slovenia Estonia Belgium Luxembourg investors are Italy Czechia 10% Latvia Denmark Finland UK Sweden Spain Bulgaria France split three ways. Malta All EU business average Greece 0% Just over a Romania Ireland increase investment in 2017* in investment increase Net balance of firms expecting to -10% Low investment and contracting High investment and contracting third say Brexit 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% Share of firms investing will make no *Net balance is defined as the % expecting to increase investment minus the % expecting to decrease investment. difference to them investing global investors towards Europe, and said they would invest less than before. Turning to inward investment from rating agencies downgraded many of in the UK over how these compare with those towards Businesses’ actual behaviour has also global investors, prospects are also A tough Europe’s biggest economies. Economic the US and China.5 exceeded their own expectations in broadly positive. In total, six in ten (60%) growth in the Eurozone and the UK came the recent past. Our data show that, one of the global investors we surveyed the next five decade to a virtual standstill in 2011. Eurostat data year previously in 2016, 26% of European believe their fellow investors will increase show that net investment – in capital businesses said they would invest less their investment in Europe over the next expenditure, research and development, A good news years. over the course of that year than they five years, and a quarter (24%) strongly Just over 10 years ago, in August 2008, and in staff training – in the Eurozone and had in previous years. In the latest survey, agree with this sentiment. the investment bank Lehman Brothers UK economies fell dramatically post-2008.3 story? we retested this prediction against what filed for bankruptcy, kicking off the global So where does the story go from businesses actually did in 2016. Just 15% financial crisis. It’s hard to understate the there? What has happened to investment really did invest less in 2016. impact this had on European economies, prospects in European economies In the current climate of uncertainty, One Europe, Wider investment indicators outside and on their citizens. Before the crash, since the crash? Two international Ipsos it can be difficult to find good news.
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