Annual Research Report 2013 Focus on Forensic Disaster Analysis in Near Real-Time

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Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology

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KIT - University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and Helmholtz Centre Potsdam ISBN 978-3-9816597-9-5 National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences Content 3

Content

Preface...... 5

Vorwort...... 7

I. Research...... 9

Forensic Disaster Analysis...... 9

FDA Research Projects...... 13

Rapid Assessment of Slip Distribution Based on Near Field Displacement Wave Forms...... 13

ATMO Forensic Prediction and Analysis...... 14

Rapid Flood Event Analysis in Germany...... 16

Loss Assessment for Earthquakes...... 17

Transportation Interruptions...... 21

Crowdsourcing – Using Social Media for Rapid Damage Assessment...... 22

Development of a CEDIM Database and Implementation of Case-Based Reasoning for Analytical Support...... 24

Assessment of Indirect Losses and Economic Impacts...... 25

Causal Loss Analysis...... 27

Information Gap Analysis: Near Real-Time Evaluation of Disaster Response...... 28

FDA Task Force Activities...... 29

Super Typhoon Haiyan/Yolanda...... 29

CEDIM Near Real-Time FDA Activity on Super Cyclone “Phailin”, Bay of Bengal, India...... 33

June Flood 2013 in Central Europe – Focus Germany...... 40

Disaster Management...... 49

Post-Disaster Damage Mapping...... 49

Seismic Characterization of the Chelyabinsk Meteor’s Terminal Explosion...... 52

Large-Scale Flood Risk Model for Germany...... 54

The Web Service „Wettergefahren-Frühwarnung“ (Weather Hazards – Early Warning)...... 56

Extreme Weather Events Analysed by “Wettergefahren-Frühwarnung” (Weather Hazards - Early Warning)...... 61 4 Content

Vulnerability and Critical Infrastructures...... 70

Risk Management Strategies in Logistics and Infrastructure Networks (RM-LOG)...... 70

Decision Support Methods in the Field of Critical Infrastructure Protection (DSM CIP): Overview...... 72

DSM CIP: The RIKOV Project, Risks and Costs of Terrorist Threats Against Public Rail Transport Systems...... 74

DSM CIP: The SEAK Project, Decision Support for Managing Disruptions in Food Supply Chains...... 76

DSM CIP: The KritisF&E Project, Review on Critical Infrastructure Protection Related Research Projects...... 78

DSM CIP: Modelling and Simulation of Critical Infrastructures Using an Agent-Based Approach...... 80

DSM CIP: Critical Infrastructure Disruption, Decision Support Through Assessing Spatial Vulnerabilities...... 82

Global Earthquake Model...... 84

GEM Testing & Evaluation Center...... 84

Social Vulnerability and Integrated Risk Project in GEM...... 86

EMCA & Co.: Towards Harmonized Seismic Risk in Central Asia...... 89

II. Strategic Partnerships...... 95

Stakeholder Interactions for Near Real-Time Forensic Analysis of Disasters...... 95

Earth System Knowledge Platform - ESKP...... 96

Cooperation with the Insurance Industry...... 97

Cooperation with Fraunhofer Institute of Optronics, System Technologies and Image Exploitation...... 99

III. Publications 2013...... 100

Articles in Journals and Books...... 100

CEDIM Reports...... 102

Conference Abstracts...... 102

Imprint...... 104 Preface 5

Preface

Since more than two years, the scientific work in July and August, the Bohol earthquake in the of the Center for Disaster Management and Philippines in October, and the winter storms Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM) has fo- over northern Germany at the end of the year cused on the forensic analyses of catastrophes (see also the articles in Chapter I). in Near Real-Time (Forensic Disaster Analysis, FDA). This approach aims to estimate and eval- Last year, CEDIM established an intensive di- uate the consequences of a disastrous event alogue with potential users of its reports, who immediately after its occurrence, tracking their included national and European disaster re- temporal evolution, and identifying the most lief and aid organizations. The feedback from important factors. Several models and meth- these organisations is important to CEDIM in ods generating Near Real-Time knowledge are order for it to address further users’ needs in being developed within various projects, e.g., future FDA reports. assessing the extent of a disaster in terms of direct and indirect damage or the number of re- To improve the CEDIM FDA projects for Near quired emergency shelters. These methods are Real-Time disaster analysis, automated infor- in turn supplemented by information distributed mation gathering from social networks was through the Internet via, e.g., social networks. implemented and a disaster database was created to compare and evaluate differttent In 2013, several disasters were forensically an- attributes across disasters. Following the re­ alysed by the interdisciplinary team of CEDIM commendations of the CEDIM Advisory Board, and the results presented online through var- the socio-economic component in the research ious reports. Based on the knowledge of past was further strengthened: among other things, extreme events, CEDIM scientists analysed a research project for the rapid analysis of the the hydro-meteorological situation of the June efficiency of emergency assistance during re- flood in Germany, which was comparable to the lief activities was introduced. Another approach severe floods of 2002 and 1954. They deter- in the field of socio-economic research (see mined, using an indicator model, the resilience section FDA Research Projects) is the devel- for each county and compared it with the oc- opment of appropriate indicators for the timely curred damage. For the severe tropical cyclone identification of the needs for effective assis- Phailin, that hit India in October, the work of tance, e.g., estimates of the required number CEDIM focused on the meteorological devel- of emergency shelters or expected support for opment of the storm and its impact upon infra- reconstruction. In addition, CEDIM is incorpo- structure, in particular on traffic interruptions. rating the work of other groups at GFZ and KIT, Finally, a comprehensive FDA activity was con- such as the Post-Disaster Damage Mapping ducted for the super Typhoon Haiyan/Yolanda project, which is setting out to derive global in November, which exhibited the highest ever vulnerability and exposure indicators of build- recorded wind speeds at landfall, causing dev- ings through crowdsourcing or open data, and astating damage, resulting in thousands of vic- linking these to damage data mapped by the tims in the Philippines. In the aftermath of this Humanitarian OpenStreetMap Team in the af- event, CEDIM provided within a few hours re- termath of catastrophes. alistic estimates about damage and casualties. These estimates have been frequently cited by In addition to activities focusing on FDAs, CE- the international media (e.g., in a press release DIM has continued in 2013 to concentrate the from Reuters). All the aforementioned FDA German efforts for the Global Earthquake Mod- Task Force activities are described in detail in el (GEM). These efforts include the operation Chapter I. of the GEM Testing Centre for the evaluation of earthquake hazard and risk models, the devel- In addition to the wide range of forensic analy- opment of a harmonized seismic risk model for ses, CEDIM staff have also investigated other Central Asia (the EMCA or Earthquake Model extreme events and disasters and have pub- Central Asia initiative) and the preparation of lished their results in a timely fashion on www. a global dynamic exposure model for the as- cedim.de. Included amongst the considered sessment of the socio-economic vulnerability events are the meteorite explosion over Russia to earthquakes. Like in previous years, CE- in February, the severe hail events in Germany DIM has continued to expand upon the topics and Europe in July, the heat wave in Germany “Disaster Management” and “Critical infrastruc- 6 Preface

tures”. Examples are the ongoing development on their homepage and will provide links to the of a large-scale flood risk analysis model for original reports on the CEDIM site. Germany and of decision support techniques for the protection of critical infrastructure. Overall, the manifold CEDIM activities during the last year were widely visible in numerous CEDIM maintains close links with the insurance reports in the national and international media. industry, especially with Willis Research Net- The many users have proven the Near Re- work (WRN) within the context of social vulner- al-Time FDA concept, CEDIM’s new strategy of ability research and hail modelling for Europe, the past two years, to be successful and con- as well as with the SV Sparkassenversicherung, structive. We are confident that the continuous also in the field of hail-damage modelling, while improvements of the CEDIM strategy will lead cooperation with IRDR (Integrated Research to enhanced understanding of how and why ex- for Disaster Reduction) has been intensified. In treme events turn into catastrophes. With our addition, last year, a Memorandum of Under- work, we hope to provide the knowledge to in- standing between CEDIM and alpS (Innsbruck) crease resilience to disasters around the world, was signed, stipulating regular exchanges in to support disaster relief, and to prevent future the form of workshops or joint projects. In May, events from becoming tragic catastrophes. CEDIM employees participated in the organi- zation of the international ISCRAM Conference Jochen Zschau (Integrative and Analytical Approaches to Crisis Michael Kunz Response and Emergency Management Infor- mation System). Finally, the cooperation with ESKP (“Earth System Knowledge Platform” of the Helmholtz Association) began. ESKP will publish short versions of CEDIM FDA reports Vorwort 7

Vorwort

Seit mehr als zwei Jahren liegt der Schwer- Reuters). All diese FDA-Task-Force-Aktivitäten punkt der wissenschaftlichen Arbeiten des sind in Kapitel I ausführlich beschrieben. Centers for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM) auf forensi­ Neben den breit angelegten forensischen schen Katastrophenanalysen in Nahe-Echt­ Analysen betrachteten CEDIM-Mitarbeiter eini- zeit (Forensic Disaster Analysis, FDA). Ziel ge weitere Extremereignisse und Katastrophen dieses Ansatzes ist es, direkt nach dem Ein- und stellten diese Informationen unmittelbar treten einer Katastrophe diese zu bewerten, nach deren Eintreten auf der CEDIM-Website deren Folgen abzuschätzen, die zeitliche Ent­ bereit. Dazu zählten die Explosion eines Mete- wicklung nach­zuverfolgen und die wichtigsten oriten über Russland im Februar, die schwe­ren Faktoren zu identifizieren, die für die Aus- Hagelereignisse in Europa im Juli, die Hitze- wirkungen maßgeb­lich sind. Dazu werden in welle über Deutschland im Juli und August, verschiedenen Projekten Modelle und Metho­ das Bohol-Erdbeben auf den Philippinen im den entwickelt, mit denen in naher Echtzeit Oktober oder die Winterstürme über Nord- Wissen generiert wird, beispielsweise über das deutschland am Ende des Jahres (siehe auch Ausmaß einer Katastrophe, über direkte und hier die Beiträge in Kapitel I). indirekte Schäden oder die Anzahl benötigter Notunterkünfte. Diese Methoden werden durch Im vergangenen Jahr wurde außerdem ein in- Informationen ergänzt, die unter anderem über tensiver Kontakt zu potentiellen Nutzern der soziale Netzwerke im Internet verfügbar sind. CEDIM-Berichte aufgebaut, der zunächst vor allem nationale und europäische Katastrophen- Auch im vergangenen Jahr 2013 wurden meh­ schutz- und Hilfsorganisationen umfasste. Das rere Katastrophen durch das interdisziplinäre Ergebnis dieses Dialogs wird in Anpassungen Team von CEDIM forensisch analysiert und der CEDIM-FDA-Berichte münden, um diese deren Ergebnisse in Form verschiedener Be­ stärker nutzerorientiert zu gestalten. richte zur Verfügung gestellt. Für das schwere Juni-Hochwasser in Deutschland, das in der In den CEDIM-FDA-Projekten, die sich mit der Ausdehnung und Gesamtstärke vergleichbar Entwicklung von Methoden zur Unterstützung war mit den schweren Hochwasserereignissen von Katastrophenanalysen in Nahe-Echtzeit von 2002 und 1954, analysierten CEDIM-Wis- befassen, wurden weitere Fortschritte erreicht, senschaftler die hydro-meteorologische Situ- etwa bei der automatisierten Informationsaus­ ation im Vergleich zu vergangenen Extremer- wertung sozialer Netzwerke oder dem Aufbau eignissen. Mit Hilfe eines Indikatormodells einer Datenbank, durch die über verschiedene wurde für jeden Landkreis die Resilienz (die Attribute aktuelle mit vorangegangenen Ka- Fähigkeit, externe Störungen zu kompensie­ tastrophen verglichen und bewertet werden ren) bestimmt und deren Zusammenhang mit können. Den Empfehlungen des Beratungs- den aufgetretenen Schäden hergestellt. Für gremiums folgend wurde die sozio-ökonomi­ den schweren tropischen Wirbelsturm Phai- sche Komponente in den Forschungsarbeiten lin, der im Oktober über Indien zog, fokus- weiter verstärkt. Hinzu kam unter anderem sierten sich die Arbeiten von CEDIM auf die ein Forschungsprojekt, das sich mit der Ana- meteorolo­gische Entwicklung des Supersturms lyse der Effizienz von Katastrophenhilfe noch und die Auswirkungen auf die Infrastruktur, vor während der Hilfsaktivitäten befasst. Auch allem auf Verkehrsunterbrechungen. Eine um- die Entwicklung geeigneter Indikatoren zur fassende FDA-Aktivität wurde schließlich für schnellen Identifizierung des Hilfsbedarfs, den Super Taifun Haiyan/Yolanda initiiert, der beispielsweise die Abschätzung der benötigten im November mit den höchsten jemals be­ Notunterkünfte oder die Unterstützung beim obachteten Windgeschwindigkeiten bei Land- Wiederaufbau, gehört zu den neuen Ansätzen gang zu verheerenden Schäden und mehreren im Bereich der Sozioökonomie (siehe Abschnitt Tausend Opfern auf den Philippinen geführt FDA Research Projects). Neben den direkten hatte. Hier konnte CEDIM innerhalb weniger CEDIM-Projekten werden außerdem Arbei­ Stunden realistische Schätzungen zu Schäden ten und Methoden von anderen Gruppen am und Opferzahlen abgeben, die auch von vie­ GFZ und KIT in die CEDIM-FDA-Aktivitäten len internationalen Medien zitiert wurden eingebunden. Ein Beispiel ist das Post-Dis- (beispielsweise in einer Presseinformation von aster Damage Mapping, bei dem globale Vul- nerabilitäts- und Expositionsindikatoren von 8 Vorwort

Gebäuden durch Crowdsourcing oder offenen Insgesamt waren die CEDIM-Aktivitäten im Daten gewonnen werden und im Nachgang vergangenen Jahr sehr vielfältig und aufgrund einer Katastrophe mit Schadenskartierungen zahlreicher Berichte in nationalen und inter- des Humanitären OpenStreetMap Projektes nationalen Medien auch weithin sichtbar. Das verknüpft werden. FDA-Konzept in naher Echtzeit als neue und zentrumsübergreifende Strategie von CEDIM Neben den Aktivitäten zum FDA-Schwerpunkt hat sich in den vergangenen zwei Jahren als hat CEDIM auch im Jahre 2013 weiterhin die zielführend und erfolgreich erwiesen. Wir sind deutschen Anstrengungen im Rahmen des davon überzeugt, dass uns die weitere Entwick- Global Earthquake Models (GEM) gebündelt. lung und Implementierung dieser Strategie in Dazu gehören der Betrieb des GEM-Testzen- der Beantwortung der Frage, unter welchen trums zur Evaluierung von Erdbebengefähr- Bedingungen extreme Naturereignisse zu Ka- dungs- und Risikomodellen, die Entwicklung tastrophen werden, deutlich voranbringt und eines harmonisierten seismischen Risikomo­ so zur Minderung der Schäden durch extreme dells für Zentralasien sowie die Vorbereitung Naturereignisse beitragen kann. eines dynamischen Expositionsmodells zur Einschätzung der sozio-ökonomischen Vul- Jochen Zschau nerabilität gegenüber Erdbeben auf globaler Michael Kunz Ebene. Wie in den Jahren zuvor, wurden auch die Themen „Katastrophenmanagement“ und „Kritische Infrastrukturen“ weiter bearbeitet, beispielsweise im Zusammenhang mit der noch laufenden Entwicklung eines großräumi- gen Hochwasserrisiko-Modells für Deutschland oder mit dem Fokus auf entscheidungsunter- stützende Methoden zum Schutz kritischer In- frastrukturen.

Enge Verbindungen bestehen nach wie vor mit der Versicherungsindustrie, insbesondere mit Willis Research Network im Rahmen der Forschung zur sozialen Vulnerabilität und in der europäischen Hagelmodellierung, sowie mit der SV Sparkassenversicherung bei der Entwicklung eines Hagelschadenmodells. Die Zusammenarbeit mit IRDR (Integrated Re- search for Disaster Reduction) wurde weiter intensiviert und konkretisiert. Im letzten Jahr wurde außerdem ein Memorandum of Under- standing zwischen CEDIM und alpS (Inns- bruck) unterzeichnet. In Zukunft ist hier ein regelmäßiger Austausch in Form von Work- shops oder gemeinsamen Projekten geplant. Bei der internationalen ISCRAM-Konferenz (Integrative and Analytical Approaches to Cri- sis Response and Emergency Management Information Systems) im Mai waren auch CE- DIM-Mitarbeiter an der Organisation beteiligt. Schließlich wurde auch die Kooperation mit ESKP („Earth System Knowledge Plattform“ der Helmholtz-Gesellschaft) aufgenommen. ESKP wird in Zukunft die CEDIM-FDA-Berichte in verkürzter Form auf der Startseite Ihres In- ternetauftritts veröffentlichen und zu den Origi- nalberichten auf der CEDIM-Website verlinken. Forensic Disaster Analysis 9

I. Research

Forensic Disaster Analysis

„Forensic Disaster Analysis“ (FDA) in Near Re- Two new projects were initiated within work al-Time, which started in 2012 as the major CE- area 1 in the reporting year, DIM activity, has remained CEDIM’s main focus also in 2013. The goal of the FDA is to enhance 9. Causal Loss Analysis, our understanding of the critical factors and in- 10. Information Gap Analysis: Near Real-Time terdependencies that control losses to life, in- Evaluation of Disaster Response. frastructure and to the economy as a result of natural extreme events, and from this to better The first one (9) attempts to create a method predict implications for protective measures, for rapidly identifying and estimating key indi- response and recovery. As the term “Forensic” cators in the aftermath of a catastrophic event in FDA indicates, the related research follows (geophysical or hydro-meteorological) that can a comprehensive strategy for disaster impact provide a holistic view on post-disaster shelter, analysis that takes into account not only the aid, recovery and reconstruction needs. The natural components of an extreme event, but second one (10) has its focus on the develop- also the complex interactions and cascading ment of a method for analysing the efficiency of effects within and between the natural, social, disaster response in Near Real-Time. economic and infrastructure systems. With its Near Real-Time approach CEDIM FDA allows Work area 2, event triggered task force cam- for the time criticality of the disaster related in- paigns, was in action in 2013 in response to the formation flow as well as for the potential user following cases, the interest, both being at a peak within the first days of a disaster. 1. June Flood 2013 in Central Europe (Focus Germany), The work within CEDIM’s FDA has remained 2. Super Cyclone “Phailin” in India in October, organized into two closely related work areas; 3. Super Typhoon Haiyan beginning of No- the first has its focus on the development of vember in the Philippines. new methods for analysing natural disasters in Near Real-Time, and the second concentrates In addition, FDA activities were also initiated, on applying these methods to real events. The although not to the same extent as for the three latter includes an event-triggered rapid gather- cases above - for a number of natural events, ing and provision of disaster information useful such as for various stakeholders. 4. M=7.2 Bohol Earthquake of October 15 in Besides the 8 research projects that had al- the Philippines, and the ready been started in 2012 and continued in 5. Winter storm Xaver in northern Europe be- 2013: ginning of December and a few others.

1. Rapid Assessment of Slip Distribution Ba- Of the five events above at least four were sed on Near Field Displacement Wave exceptional in some manner. The June flood Forms, 2013, in terms of spatial extent and magnitude, 2. ATMO Forensic Prediction and Analysis, exceeded all previous floods in Germany since 3. Rapid Flood Event Analysis in Germany, at least 1950. With wind speeds of up to 259 4. Loss Assessment for Earthquakes, km/h the super cyclone Phailin was classified 5. Transportation Interruptions, as a category 5 cyclone – the highest category 6. Crowdsourcing - Using Social Media for on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, and with Rapid Damage Assessment, a maximum sustained wind speed of 314 km/h 7. Assessment of Indirect Losses and Econo- and peak wind gusts of 380 km/h the super Ty- mic Impacts, phoon Haiyan/Yolanda was one of the strong- 8. Development of a CEDIM Database and est tropical cyclones ever observed in history. Implementation of Case-Based Reasoning Winter storm Xaver caused a severe storm for Analytical Support. surge hazard for the entire North Sea coastline 10 Forensic Disaster Analysis

that resulted, for instance, in the second high- vulnerability, primary, secondary and indirect est absolute water level recorded since 1825 at damage, social and economic impact as well the tide gauge in Hamburg St. Pauli. as on loss estimates. As the reports are quite detailed, only three FDA Task Force missions All events were analysed in Near Real-Time, are addressed here, and only a summary is and the results made public in special reports given, respectively. The full reports are avail- within a few days and continuously updated. able from CEDIM’s webpage www.cedim.de. Some of the results were later published or Their format differs slightly from the one of the submitted for publication in scientific journals. 2012 reports, in particular as each report is now Special summaries derived from the reports proceeded by one to two standardized informa- were also put on the web page of the Earth tion sheets that summarize the most important System Knowledge Platform (ESKP) of the features of each event. This modification was Helmholtz-Association. Altogether 13 reports a consequence of intensive interactions we were accomplished, 2 for the June Flood 2013, had in 2013 with potential stakeholders on the 2 for super Cyclone “Phailin”, 6 for the Bo- national and European level. An example for hol earthquake, 2 for super Typhoon Haiyan/ such a standardized summary sheet is given in Yolanda and 1 for Winter storm Xaver. They in- the following for the Philippines (Bohol) earth- clude among others information on the related quake, report 6 (final report). hazards, on historical events, exposure and

Forensische Katastrophenanalyse Die beiden neuen Projekte befassen sich mit Möglichkeiten, den Bedarf an Notunterkünften Die 2012 von CEDIM begonnene forensische und anderen Hilfen unmittelbar nach einem ka- Katastrophenanalyse (FDA) in Nahe-Echtzeit tastrophalen Ereignis schnell erfassen zu kön- war auch der Hauptfokus der CEDIM-Aktivitä- nen, sowie die Effizienz der Katastrophenhilfe ten im Jahr 2013. Das Ziel ist geblieben, die kri- in Nahe-Echtzeit zu analysieren. tischen Faktoren und Wechselwirkungen, die das Schadensausmaß bei Naturkatastrophen Im Arbeitsbereich 2 wurden 2013 ereignisge- bestimmen, so verstehen zu lernen, dass da- triggerte Task Force-Kampagnen in fünf Fällen raus Implikationen für geeignete Schutzmaß- durchgeführt. Drei bezogen sich auf extreme nahmen abgeleitet werden können. Wie das Sturmereignisse, eine auf die Juni-Flut in Mit- Wort „forensisch“ ausdrückt, ist der wissen- teleuropa und eine weitere auf ein destruktives schaftliche Ansatz insofern umfassend, als er Erdbebenereignis. Alle Katastrophen wurden nicht nur das natürliche Extremereignis selbst in Nahe-Echtzeit analysiert und innerhalb we- adressiert, sondern auch komplexe Wechsel- niger Tage nach dem jeweiligen Ereignis in wirkungen und Kaskadeneffekte innerhalb und speziellen Berichten (insgesamt 13) auf der zwischen den betroffenen natürlichen sozialen, CEDIM-Webseite der Öffentlichkeit zugänglich ökonomischen und infrastrukturellen Systemen gemacht. Auch die „Earth System Knowledge berücksichtigt. Die Nahe-Echtzeit-Komponente Platform (ESKP)“ der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft erscheint wichtig, da sowohl der katastrophen- war zu einem frühen Zeitpunkt einbezogen bezogene Informationsfluss als auch das po- worden, so dass zielgerichtete Zusammenfas- tentielle Nutzerinteresse unmittelbar nach ei- sungen bzw. Extrakte auf die ESKP-Webseite ner Katastrophe am größten sind. gestellt werden konnten. Ausgesuchte Ergeb- nisse kamen auch in wissenschaftlichen Zeit- Wie auch schon 2012 sind CEDIMs FDA- schriften zur Veröffentlichung bzw. wurden zur Aktivitäten in zwei Arbeitsbereiche gegliedert, Veröffentlichung eingereicht. im Bereich 1 mit dem Fokus auf methodische Entwicklungen, die Analysen in Nahe-Echtzeit Als Folge einer intensiven Diskussion mit ermöglichen, und im Bereich 2 mit dem Fokus möglichen Stakeholdern auf nationaler und auf die ereignisgetriggerte praktische Durch- europäischer Ebene wurde für die Berichte führung der Analysen. ab 2013 ein neues Format gewählt, dass den ausführlichen „Reports“ u.a. eine ein- bis zwei- Zu den bereits seit 2012 aktiven 8 Forschungs- seitige nach einem vorgegebenen Schema projekten des Bereichs 1 sind 2013 zwei standardisierte Zusammenfassung voranstellt. weitere hinzugekommen, so dass zurzeit 10 Ein Beispiel hierfür wird im Folgenden für das Forschungsprojekte zur Entwicklung von Na- Bohol-Erdbeben gezeigt (Report 6, letzter Be- he-Echtzeit-Methodiken durchgeführt werden. richt). Forensic Disaster Analysis 11

CEDIM Forensic Disaster Analysis Group & CATDAT and Earthquake-Report.com

Philippines (Bohol) Earthquake – Report #6 02.11.2013 – Situation Report No. 6 – 14:00 GMT

Report Contributors: Report & Socioeconomic Loss Analysis: James Daniell (Earthquake Report/KIT) & Armand Vervaeck (EQ Report); Shelter: Susan Brink & Friedemann Wenzel (KIT); Social Sensors: Joachim Fohringer, Silke Eggert (GFZ), Andre Dittrich, Christian Lucas (KIT); Disaster Response: Trevor Girard (KIT); Landslides: Bijan Khazai (KIT); Weather: Bernhard Mühr (KIT); Social Vulnerability: Chris Power (KIT), Werner Trieselmann (GFZ); Bohol Pictures and on- site data: Pieter Nierop, Julie Jaramillo & Maria Docoy-Boucher (Bohol, Philippines); General Help & Dissemination: Carlos Robles, Jens Skapski (Earthquake Report), Lee-Jerome Schumann (GFZ)

Official Disaster Name Date UTC Local CATDAT_ID Bohol EQ 15-Oct-2013 12:12:31 +8 2013-285

Preferred Hazard Information: EQ_Latitude EQ_Longitude Magnitude Hyp_Depth (km) Fault Mech. Source Spectra 9.86 124.07 7.2Ms 12 Thrust PHIVOLCS Some avail. Duration: 30 secs Location Information: Country ISO Province Most Impact Building PF HDI (2012) Urbanity Population Philippines PH Bohol West Coast Average 0.729 25% 1.3 million Philippines PH Cebu City Good 0.761 66% 4 million

Preferred Hazard Information: MSK-64 MMI PEIS Key Hazard Metrics IX VIII-IX VII-VIII (VIII-IX) Epicenter, Loon, Clarin, (VII-VIII) Tagbilaran City, West Hazard Description (Intensities and Ground Motion) Bohol, (VI-VII) Cebu City, East Coast Cebu, East Bohol Intensities reached VII on the PEIS scale – very well built structures received slight damage. Older buildings suffered great damage. There was also limited liquefaction. The damage seen corresponds to VIII and perhaps very isolated VIII-IX locations on the MMI scale. Over 3000 aftershocks have occurred, with magnitude 5 earthquakes continuing to pepper the region around Clarin, Loon and Tagbilaran on Bohol. The fault sense can start to be seen well from the PHIVOLCS data, with the fault break running at about WSW-ENE. At least 94 of these have been strong enough to be felt.

Vulnerability and Exposure Metrics (Population, Infrastructure, Economic) The island of Bohol has a capital stock around $5-6 billion USD with approximately 1.3 million inhabitants. It is mountainous in nature and has the chance for many landslide. Cebu is a key tourist area in the Philippines with 2 million arrivals per year as of 2013. Still, the average income and GDP per capita is about the same as that of the whole of the Philippines. Bohol has a lower GDP per capita in comparison. The main industries are dominated by Population, Barangays and the Elevation, Slope agriculture which could be affected.

What have been the 2 largest comparable damaging events in the past? None in this region. Date - Name Impact Size Damage % Social % or Insured % Economic Loss 1990 Bohol Mw6-6.8, VII PEIS 7000 homeless 6 deaths, 200 injured 154m PHP ($7m US) 1996 Bohol Mw5.6, VI PEIS Poorly built structures No deaths Minor

12 Forensic Disaster Analysis

Preferred Building Damage Information: (Damage states will be filled in later when more info available) Description: Many government, churches and private (over 66932 so far) The counting of buildings destroyed has not been undertaken with only a few houses included in the current count of 13249 destroyed and 53683 damaged. Based on families displaced, this value could be up to at least 15-20000 destroyed. Loon has been particularly hard hit as well as Tubigon, Antequera, Carmen, Tagbilaran and others. See the pictures for locations of current counting. Julie Jaramillo (all rights reserved)

Secondary Effect Information: For weather impacts see reports 1-5 & http://www.wettergefahren-fruehwarnung.de/ Type Impact Damage % Social % Economic % Landslides Many roads blocked, infrastructure damage Minor At least 20 deaths 1-5% See below in the pictures for Barangays affected Preferred Social Impact Information: Type Median Accepted Range Description Source 230 incl. 8 Hypocenter played a major role in fatality Daniell, CATDAT, Deaths May rise missing estimation: 20 to 400 =various models Earthquake **NB: The lowest death toll is currently 222 as 8 are missing. Report. Injuries 976 Approx. 1000 877 Bohol, 96 Cebu NDRRMC NDRRMC Data Sheltered Homeless 87000 Up to 105000 87146 currently in shelters 02.11.2013 All Homeless 368691 380906 peak 368691 currently displaced – see below NDRRMC Affected 3.2m 3.5m peak Cebu, West Bohol, Negros NDRRMC *predicted Preferred Current Economic Impact Information: $million int. event-day dollars Type Median Accepted Range Description Source Reconstruction Reconstruction costs have been estimated Cost $162m $100m-$200m at 7 billion PHP NDRRMC/Govt Total estimate (using rapid loss model CATDAT/James Total Loss $89.4m $55m-121m combined with damage for range) Daniell Insured Loss <$2m $1m-5m Minor insurance takeout but some in Cebu CATDAT Aid Impact $8m EU: $3.3mn, AU: $3mn - $46.8mn desired. NDRRMC

Direct Economic Damage (Total) - Summary Social Sensors & Disaster Response Analysis has been undertaken as to the social media There have been estimates of some components of the infrastructure damage being 2.2 billion PHP (around 50 response during the earthquake, and also the million USD). associated aid and disaster response after the disaster. See the main chapters for more info. The rapid loss estimation of CATDAT/James Daniell, gives a total damage value coming out to between 55-100 million USD (up to 4.5 billion PHP) with a median 89.4 million USD (3.9 billion PHP). The reconstruction cost has been estimated by the government to be approx 7 billion PHP (162m USD) This is a significant percentage of the gross capital stock of the location, with a MDR approaching 2%. Source: Silke Eggert, Joachim Fohringer (GFZ); Trevor Girard (KIT)

Insured Loss Estimates: Some public infrastructure damage occurred, and in addition there was minor damage to tourist facilities in various locations. It is still expected that the damage will be insignificant for the insurance industry. In addition no global impacts on supply chains.

Abridged Summary Description from full CATDAT description sources: A catastrophic earthquake hit the densely populated area of Cebu, and the less densely populated island of Bohol with catastrophic consequences. CATDAT Economic Index Rank: 8: Very Damaging CATDAT Social Index Rank: 8: Destructive This report was produced in conjunction with the CATDAT database, earthquake-report.com, NDRRMC, PHIVOLCS and USGS data. As shown below is full size documentation of the diagrams shown in the summary above. The data is current as of 2nd November 2013, 6:00am European Standard Time. For the current data, go to www.earthquake-report.com.

Forensic Disaster Analysis 13

FDA Research Projects

Rapid Assessment of Slip Distribution Based on Near Field Displacement Wave Forms

Andreas Hoechner

Introduction Aims/Objective

During recent decades, and especially since The goal of the project is the development of the advent of the GNSS (Global Navigation fast and stable methods using near field dis- Satellite System), geodetic methods have be- placement time series from GNSS and ac- come more prominent in supporting tradition- celerometers to infer slip distribution of large al seismological methods. In the near field of earthquakes in near real time. In the case of large earthquakes, it is not straight forward to subduction earthquakes, a semi-automatic pro- interpret data from broadband seismometers cessing should be possible since the geometry due to clipping, tilting and hysteresis effects, of the fault can be assumed to be given by the even though displacement time series from subduction plate interface. For other events, GPS receivers are still stable (as long as the geometric information has to be obtained by antenna is not destroyed). Having observations seismological methods or geological analyses as close to the source as possible enables fast- and thus manual processing is necessary. er estimation of earthquake magnitude. The direct relationship between slip at the rupture Project status fault and displacement at the observing station allows good assessment of the slip distribution During the last year, there were no earthquakes and, in the case of subduction events, for sea which triggered an FDA (forensic disaster anal- floor deformation, which is crucial information ysis) activity including a rapid assessment of for tsunami early warning. the slip distribution.

Fig. 1: Geometry of major subduction zones. The Hellenic arc and Makran will also be included. 14 Forensic Disaster Analysis

For two test cases (Japan, Chile), a compi- Core Science Team lation was made of what could be provided (given that GNSS data can be obtained). The Andreas Hoechner publication about Tohoku, which was submitted Stefano Parolai last year and published this year, generated a Rongjiang Wang lot of attention in general media (radio interview Jochen Zschau for BBC, etc.). The geometry of the subduction Section 2.1 Physics of Earthquakes and zones as defined in the Slab 1.0 model (Hayes Volcanoes, GFZ et al., 2012) has been adopted for the static in- version procedure (see Fig. 1). Publications

Outlook Hoechner A., Ge M., Babeyko A. Y. and Sobolev S. V. (2013): Instant tsunami early warning The geometry of some additional subduction based on real-time GPS – Tohoku 2011 case zones, especially the Hellenic arc and the study, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1285- Makran, will be adopted based on the RUM 1292. model (Gudmundsson et al., 1998). For those regions where it appears promising, a sensitiv- Wang R., Diao F., Hoechner A. (2013): SDM-A ity analysis concerning GNSS-based tsunami geodetic inversion code incorporating with la- early warning will be conducted. The wave yered crust structure and curved fault geome- form inversion procedure should become avail- try, Geophysical Research Abstracts Vol. 15, able next year. EGU2013-2411-1 (Poster presentation).

ATMO Forensic Prediction and Analysis

Bernhard Mühr

Short description and goals fore the end of the project (31/12/2014); these methods allow an a priori and a real-time as- Not only western and northwestern Europe are sessment of possible damage (total loss) be- prone to winter storms, such events are also fore and during a winter storm event over Eu- common in central Europe between October rope. and March. They can be strong and sometimes cause significant loss and damage. “Lothar” A winter storm can be described by a num- and “Anatol” in 1999 or “Kyrill” in 2007 are well- ber of indices. Observed wind data (maximum known representatives of winter storms that average wind speed and gusts) from a selec- affected Germany. And recently, in October tion of representative weather stations of the 2013, the winter storm “Christian” swept across measurement network of the German Weather northern Germany and Denmark with wind Service may be aggregated into a measured speeds close to 200 kph, establishing a new storm index. Due to changes in the location or all-time wind record for Denmark. In addition to the conditions of the measurement, some of the routine forecasting and analysis activities the resultant time series have to be adjusted. of worldwide extreme weather events and the activities in the CEDIM Forensic Disaster Anal- A second index, the model storm index, can be ysis group, “Wettergefahren-Frühwarnung” will derived from model data. A data set with ana- develop a method to record, classify and evalu- lysed and forecasted average wind speeds is ate winter storms in Germany, central Europe available for past storm events. According to and finally Europe as a whole. the number of grid points at which the model wind speed was over a predefined threshold, For the scenario “winter storm”, practical and an individual storm index is calculated. The routine methodologies will be implemented be- model output doesn’t provide information about Forensic Disaster Analysis 15

“Wind-MOS” or “Storm-MOS” (model output statistics) that can describe a storm event with reasonable certainty and accuracy and carves out a damage function. Ensemble forecasts consisting of about 20 forecast members allow describing a storm scenario well in advance and with an increasing reliability and signifi- cance the closer the storm gets. Towards the end of 2014 we will be able to provide a storm damage estimation based on GFS (Global Forecast System) ensemble forecasts for cen- tral Europe with the option to extend it to the whole of Europe in a next step; using the WRF and/or COSMO models the results might be even more precise.

The data of all past and future storm events will be added to a database. The data set entries contain storm name, date of occurrence, affect- ed region, model data, measured values and damage information. “Case-Based Reasoning” Fig. 1: Comparison of model wind gusts and meas- is another FDA project within CEDIM. ured wind gusts (station data) for 100 storm events between 1990 and 2013. Red colours indicate that Additionally, the Wettergefahren-Frühwarnung the real (measured) wind gusts have been higher contributes to all CEDIM FDA activities ahead, by a factor between 0 and 2 whereas blue colours during and after a major event. Information will show areas where the model overestimated the be provided as text, weather charts or data and wind gust speed. Data source: CFS (Climate Fore- will be part of all CEDIM reports. Furthermore, cast System) Reanalysis data and observed wind information provided on the Wettergefahren- gust data (station network of the German Weather Frühwarnung web pages are used by online Service). and print media, news agencies, insurance Image provided by Sarah Jäger (KIT, IMK) firms and others. The information on the web pages is updated on a daily routine, with page impressions in the order of several thousand wind gusts: these will be computed using the a day. wind speed and the height of the planetary boundary layer. The model analyses result in Core Science Team a storm index that includes both affected area and storm intensity. A validation is done by the Bernhard Mühr comparison of the model storm indices and the Institute for Meteorology and Climate measured storm indices. Research, KIT

Furthermore, a storm damage index will be Publications developed through the use of insurance data; the index characterizes past storm events and Articles and reports of about 1000 unusual and includes the number of damaged houses, the extreme weather events between 2004 and number of fatalities or the total loss. 2013 can be found at:

So far we have identified 100 winter storms be- www.wettergefahren-fruehwarnung.de tween 1990 and 2013 and calculated the model wind gusts. It turned out that the model wind www.wettergefahren-fruehwarnung.de/Ereignis/ar- gust speeds are generally too low compared to chiv.html the observed at the related weather stations; only few areas show a slight overestimation (blue colours, Fig. 1).

Using this information the forecast model wind gust speed can be optimised and result in a 16 Forensic Disaster Analysis Rapid Flood Event Analysis in Germany

Kai Schröter, Heidi Kreibich, Bruno Merz

Introduction sistent flood event catalogue which enables comparisons and categorizations of large scale Rapid evaluations of flood events provide im- flood events in terms of triggering processes portant information for disaster response ac- and preconditions, critical controls and drivers tivities including emergency management, fi- for flood losses as well as the interplay of the nancial appraisal and reconstruction planning. natural hazard, technical facilities and society. Further, closely monitoring and documenting the hydro-meteorological factors which control Project status flood generation and development as well as evaluating flood impacts provides a valuable The prototype of the flood event analysis sys- basis for the in-depth analysis and improved tem is currently being tested. This is essential understanding of flood causes for floods and to work out the conceptual details, to test the the key drivers for their impacts and conse- methods and tools, and to refine the interfaces quences. to the relevant data sources and diverse data providers, including the CEDIM projects ‘Fo- Aims/Objective rensic ATMO’ and ‘Social Sensors’. The Janu- ary 2011 flood was successfully used as a test- The Rapid flood event analysis project aims at case for a ‘simulated’ Near Real-Time flood the development of an operational flood event loss estimation using remote sensing data from analysis system which enables the Near Real- DLR-ZKI (Schröter et al. 2013a, 2013b). The Time acquisition and evaluation of event-relat- results of this test application, see example ed hydro-meteorological data from in-situ and shown in figure 1, demonstrate the feasibil- remote sensors. The analysis system provides ity of the flood loss estimation approach thus functionalities to evaluate the current flood situ- implemented and confirm the value of satellite ation, to assess hazard intensity and to esti- radar data for rapid flood impact evaluations. mate the current flood impact, particularly di- The spatial coverage, accuracy and resolution rect flood damage to private households and provided by Terra SAR-X StripMap-Scenes are companies. This system supports the work of promising. However, in operational applications CEDIM’s forensic disaster analysis Task Force. the availability of these data is not guaranteed. Another objective is the compilation of a con-

Fig. 1: Study area for January flood 2011 event analysis (left), exemplary detail of specific asset values of residential buildings and inundation depths derived from TerraSAR-X StripMap Scene (right). Forensic Disaster Analysis 17

Further, the core science team contributed Further steps are the implementation of the to the CEDIM FDA activities on Hurricane operational flood event analysis system and Sandy in November 2012 and the Central Eu- carrying forward the analysis of the June 2013 ropean Flood in June 2013. In particular, the flood, including the estimation of direct flood June 2013 flood provided valuable experi- losses to residential buildings on the national ences and insights into data availability issues scale. and the performance of data acquisition and evaluation procedures under real conditions. Core Science Team The CEDIM FDA Task Force published a first event report on 4th of June - four days after the Kai Schröter start of the event precipitation on 31st of May Heidi Kreibich - including a snapshot of spatial flood hazard Bruno Merz, distribution and a classification of the flood haz- Section 5.4 Hydrology, GFZ ard in terms of event severity in comparison to historical flood events (http://www.cedim.de/ Publications english/2408.php). Schröter, K., Kreibich, H., Zwenzner, H., Merz, Outlook B. (2013a): Schnelle Hochwasserereignisana- lyse in Deutschland, Wasserbaukolloquium Based on the experience gained from the test 2013: Technischer und organisatorischer applications, future activities are aimed at in- Hochwasserschutz -Bauwerke, Anforderun- tegrating alternative information sources which gen, Modelle, Wasserbauliche Mitteilungen allow estimating inundated areas and inunda- Heft 48, 163-172. tion depths and evaluating the flood impact in Near Real-Time. To this end the suitability of Schröter, K.; Kreibich, H.; Merz, B. (2013b): water levels from river gauges and/or hydraulic Rapid flood loss estimation for large scale simulation models, information from social sen- floods in Germany. General Assembly Europe- sors as well as background information from an Geosciences Union (Vienna, Austria 2013). official flood hazard maps will be investigated.

Loss Assessment for Earthquakes

James Daniell, Friedemann Wenzel, Bijan Khazai, Tina Kunz-Plapp

Introduction • To create a rapid loss estimate of the po- tential impacts, and to look at the evolution For each earthquake worldwide over the past • and key parameters which influence the year, reporting of the potential impacts, analysis earthquake losses. of the losses and rapid estimates of fatalities, • To create robust methodologies using so- damaged buildings and economic losses have cio-economic indicators and traditional em- been undertaken. The assessment of various pirical and analytical fragility functions. components of hazard, vulnerability and expo- • Exploration of not only shaking losses, but sure combined with the socioeconomic climate secondary effects such as landslide, liquef- of the affected region allows for successful es- action, tsunami and fire. timation of losses. Project status Aims/Objective The loss estimation methodologies have been • To determine which events are interesting used in various studies in 2013 including the and are historically significant for forensic Pakistan (Arawan), Philippines (Bohol), China disaster analysis. (Sichuan) and other major earthquakes. Anal- 18 Forensic Disaster Analysis

ysis has been undertaken in conjunction with Relative: > 30 deaths with > 1 death per www.earthquake-report.com in order to provide 100,000 pop.; > 0.8 % of country population to the quickest possible information via a group become homeless.; Over 3 % of Gross Domes- of dedicated 24/7 reporting. Each earthquake tic Product (GDP) Purchasing Power Parity has been examined for the last 12 months in adjusted (PPP) with losses > $30 million USD; terms of the socioeconomic impacts on the Any interesting location, or extraordinary event. affected regions. Over 300 earthquakes have caused some form of damage and around 150 During the doctoral thesis research of James have been classified as having damage signifi- Daniell, a process for rapid economic and so- cant enough to be input into the yearly review cial loss estimates has been created and tested of damaging earthquakes via CATDAT. So far, over the past 4 years. This uses parsimonious over 1500 deaths have occurred this year, and modelling using intensity, historic damage and although analysis has been undertaken on a socio-economic parameters calibrated through number of events, none of the hard-wired fo- time to create loss functions. This methodology rensic disaster analysis criteria has been ex- will now be used by Susan Brink for homeless- ceeded as yet. In May 2012, there was 1 such ness, starting in October 2013. Historic events event – the Mirandola earthquake (subject to from the CATDAT Damaging Earthquakes the final loss estimate) with around $17 billion Database (the 3rd annual report of which was reconstruction costs estimated. distributed in January 2013 in conjunction with CEDIM) will be used to find the key parameters In terms of historical statistics, this is a signifi- contributing to homelessness in order to give cant period of quiescence: there is usually an rapid assessments of shelter-seeking individu- average of 3 events occurring per year (for the als, which may also help disaster relief organi- last 113 years) using the following criteria: sations to better apportion aid and the level of support needed. The general format of the Absolute: Over 1000 deaths; 200 000 home- functions is shown in figure 1. The latest event less (non-panic); Over $8.5 billion USD (2013) explored is that of the 2013 Bohol earthquake losses and/or all less damaging events (with in Philippines. Loss estimates using the first in- structural damage) in Germany. tensities coming out underestimated the death toll (predicting around 20 deaths), but once the intensity maps were updated to better repre-

Fig. 1: The methodology for rapid socio-economic fragility functions (Daniell, 2013). Forensic Disaster Analysis 19 sent the intensities felt on Bohol (around 24 hrs ration with the Crowdsourcing project as well after the event), death tolls of around 100 due as with Transportation Interruptions and CE- to shaking were expected, with the final version DIM Database CBR projects continues. of 170 shaking deaths resulting from using the PHIVOLCS intensity data. A 90 million USD Outlook loss and around a 160 million USD reconstruc- tion cost using the rapid estimation were pre- The reports produced have previously con- dicted. As of the 28 October 2013, 223 people tained many different analyses, generally fo- have died (around 130-150 due to direct shak- cussing on the impacts of loss. The reports ing effects) and around a 150-180 million USD have also been published on ReliefWeb to help reconstruction cost estimated. Six reports have aid organisations with pre-mission planning. In been produced detailing the loss estimation, the future a finer tuning of the reports to agen- statistics and analysis of secondary effects cies such as Civil Protection agencies, Interna- such as landslides. A 2-page executive sum- tional Relief Organizations, Development Or- mary was constantly updated for easy viewing ganizations and Industry (Insurance, Tourism, from partners, giving a quick and easy to read global scale manufacturing, etc.) in order to summary (see page 13). Examples of some of provide useable post-disaster information, will the diagrams can be seen in figure 2. Collabo- be undertaken. In addition, learning through

Fig. 2: Some of the diagrams from the set of Bohol earthquake reports in October 2013; Left: CATDAT fatality rapid estimation using early intensity map; Middle: Fatalities as of 28 October 2013 in each location (223 dead and missing); Right: Landslide location map per barangay on Bohol. 20 Forensic Disaster Analysis

this rapid post-disaster analysis, new research Wenzel, F., J. Zschau, M. Kunz, J.E. Daniell, areas were discovered in locations where there B. Khazai, T. Kunz-Plapp (2013): Near Real- is little or non-detailed census information. The Time Forensic Disaster Analysis, in: Comes, T., rapid post-disaster analysis methodology will F. Fiedrich, S. Fortier, J. Geldermann, T. Müller be extended to homelessness as well as tai- (eds) Proceedings of the 10th International IS- loring the disaster reports and using the meth- CRAM Conference – Baden-Baden, Germany, odologies established currently to cover more May 2013. loss types (man-made, etc.), emphasising in- surance and other economic aspects, knowl- Wyss, M., Wenzel, F., & Daniell, J.E. (submitted edge management, re-visiting forensic disaster 2013): How Useful is Early Warning and Can It analysis sites and processes and to enhance Be Made More Effective? In Early Warning for stakeholder interaction. Geological Disasters (pp. 369–379). Springer.

Core Science Team Daniell, J.E. (submitted 2013): Socioeconomic impact of earthquake disasters, in “Earthquake James Daniell Hazard, Risk, and Disasters”, ed: Prof. Max Bijan Khazai Wyss, Earthquake and Seismic Hazards and Friedemann Wenzel Disasters. Elsevier. Tina Kunz-Plapp Chris Power Khazai, B., Daniell, J.E., Düzgün, S., Kunz- Chris Oberacker Plapp, T., Wenzel, F. (2013): Framework for Julia Schaper Systemic Socio-Economic Vulnerability and Susan Brink Loss Assessment, In Framework for Systemic Natural Hazards and Risk Group, Socio-Economic Vulnerability and Loss As- Geophysical Insitute, KIT. sessment, eds: K. Pitilakis, P. Franchin, B. Khazai, H. Wenzel. Publications Daniell, J.E., Vervaeck, A. (2013): The CAT- Daniell, J.E., Schäfer, A., Wenzel, F., and DAT Damaging Earthquakes Database – Khazai, B. (2013): Weltweite Verluste durch 2012 – Year in Review, CEDIM Research Re- von Erdbeben induzierten Sekundäreffekte port 2013-01, Earthquake Report OF Report, und deren Bedeutung für D-A-CH und das Ver- Karlsruhe, Germany. sicherungswesen, Beitragsnr. 138, 13. D-A-CH Tagung für Erdbebeningenieurwesen und Bau- Power, C., Daniell, J. E., Khazai, B., Oberacker, dynamik (D-A-CH 2013) C. Adam, R. Heuer, W. C. & Schaper, J. (2013): Socio-Economic Vul- Lenhardt & C. Schranz (Hrsg.) 29.-30. August nerability and Integrated Risk Initiative: Status 2013, Wien, Österreich. Report #2, GEM Willis Socioeconomic Resil- ience Project. Daniell, J.E., B. Khazai, F. Wenzel (accepted 2013): Uncovering the 2010 Haiti Earthquake death toll, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences.(NHESS), Discussions, 1, 19131942, 2013. doi: 10.5194/nhessd-1-1913-2013. Forensic Disaster Analysis 21 Transportation Interruptions

Kay Mitusch, Tina Bessel

Introduction drive more slowly (indirect impact), and some car drivers may have been too late for appoint- Following a winter storm, flood, or other natu- ments (second-level indirect impact). We as- ral disasters, the media often report the severe sessed the categorised impacts in respect of impacts on travellers, such as delayed trains the possibilities to monetise them. The compar- or flights, missed connections, road traffic con- ison of our figures with other published figures gestion or forced detours. The quantification of showed that it is crucial to define the category these impacts in physical and monetary terms of losses captured in the analysis. Otherwise it is hardly ever reported, although the public is virtually impossible to interpret the numbers and media would be interested in this infor- presented. mation immediately after an event. The Chair of Network Economics, part of the Institute of Our recent activities focus on the central Eu- Economics (ECON) at Karlsruhe Institute of ropean flood in June 2013. For about two Technology (KIT), is investigating the impacts months during the joint FDA activities related of events causing a disruption of the transpor- to this event, we systematically monitored traf- tation system. fic reports that were broadcast somewhere in Germany. From these reports, we filtered all in- Aims/Objective formation on disruptions of road traffic caused by this flood event. Comprehensive data on the Our goal is to develop a procedure to rapidly type, extent and duration of the disruptions was assess the indirect economic losses following a fed into a data base which provides a basis for disruption of the transportation system. There- further research. fore this project contributes to a better under- standing of economic losses of events harming Outlook transport systems. We specifically aim to im- prove the accuracy and speed of indirect loss We are currently analysing possible methods assessment by: to assess the disruptions collected in our da- tabase on the central European flood in June • identifying data requirements; 2013. We aim to reduce all information of a • finding innovative estimation methods for disruption to a simple quantitative assessment cases in which little data is available; that describes the severity of the disruption. • classifying impacts of a disrupting event; All assessed disruptions in a certain area will • determining affected parties; form an indicator that will allow us to make a • analysing possible methods of quantifica- comparison of the impacts between different tion and monetization of the impacts; areas. Part of the results will be reported in an • assessing the indirect costs associated interdisciplinary joint paper of several CEDIM with a disrupting event. members about the impacts of the flood event.

Project status The two case studies mentioned before showed that, depending on the type of event, We have studied the impacts on transport different types of impacts can be expected of the winter storm Daisy in Germany and of within the transport sector. Future research the eruption of the Islandic volcano Eyjafjalla- will focus on developing appropriate methods jökull. Both events happened in 2010, and we for a fast quantification and assessment of the focused on the impacts on the German trans- different impacts. We will need to collect more port sector. From press releases and other in- data from current or past events and undertake ternet resources, we collected information on further case studies to verify and improve our all types of impacts caused by the events. We procedures towards a more reliable rapid loss categorised the impacts to obtain an overview assessment. of the various dimensions. As an example, the winter storm Daisy caused snow drifts on the streets (direct impact). Therefore, cars had to 22 Forensic Disaster Analysis

Core Science Team Publications

Kay Mitusch Mitusch, K., Friedrich, H., Schulz, C. (2011): Tina Bessel Wetterereignisse und Verkehr – am Beispiel Institute of Economics, KIT von Sturm Daisy 2010, 6. ExtremWetterKon- gress 2011, Hamburg.

Mitusch, K., Friedrich, H. (2010): Wenn die Natur verrückt spielt: Auswirkungen von Na- turereignissen auf die Volkswirtschaft und Tourismus-Unternehmen – am Beispiel vom Ausbruch des Eyjafjallajökull 2010, 60. DRV- Jahrestagung 2010, Agadir, Marokko.

Crowdsourcing – Using Social Media for Rapid Damage Assessment

Joachim Fohringer, André Dittrich, Christian Lucas, Silke Eggert, Doris Dransch, Stefan Hinz

Introduction determine quickly and reliably the relevance of each single message and to provide this infor- Messages in social media can include a variety mation for further analysis and decisions. of observations on the impact of natural haz- ards. Especially messages from microblogs, Project status such as Twitter, provide additional information, which is difficult or impossible to be detected by We installed a prototype that quickly detects conventional sensors. disastrous events from Twitter. This detection is performed on the basis of statistical tests Our studies during the hurricane “Sandy” 2012, and content analysis of twitter messages. For the floods in Central Europe 2013, and the example, we detected the earthquake in the earthquake at the Philippines 2013 (Fig. 1) Philippines 2013 after just a few minutes from have shown that Twitter messages incorpo- Twitter messages. After the event detection, rate useful information with respect to damage, a notification with a basic set of information is such as flooded roads, damaged buildings or provided for a first overview. For further analy- power outages. The damage information is ses of the disaster’s impact we extract relevant provided either as text or photo. Information messages continuously during and after the derived from Twitter messages can be used event. To identify and rate the relevant informa- to quickly detect disastrous events, to comple- tion we developed a multi-level approach by ment traditional sensors or to validate damage filtering messages by suitable keywords, time, scenarios. location and expert knowledge. Against the background of the floods in Central Europe in Aims/Objective 2013 we extended our prototype with a web- based user interface to provide easy access The objective of the project is to acquire ob- to filtered messages from our database. This servations from eye witnesses in real-time from flood-focused interface allows an exploration social media platforms and to provide it for rap- of photos that are included in the Twitter mes- id damage estimation. Storm, flood, and earth- sages. Flood experts can interpret photos and quake events are especially well regarded. store relevant information, e.g. for deriving wa- The specific challenge in using social media as ter levels, as additional attributes in the data- information sources is to automatically extract base. This enriched data than can be exported the relevant information from the huge amount in standard geospatial data formats for further of data. Our aim is to develop methods that analysis. Forensic Disaster Analysis 23

Outlook Fortier, J. Geldermann, & T. Muller (Eds.). Pre- sented at the Proceedings of the 10th Interna- In a next step we will improve our detection and tional ISCRAM Conference, Baden-Baden. filtering methods. We want to enhance event detection and localization by adding a lan- Dransch, D., Poser, K., Fohringer, J., & Lucas, guage processing component and spatial se- C. (2013). Volunteered Geographic Information mantics. We also want to develop our methods for Disaster Management. In C. Silva (Ed.), towards automatic filtering and classification by Citizen E-Participation in Urban Governance: using machine learning algorithms trained with Crowdsourcing and Collaborative Creativity manually labelled Twitter messages. Addition- (pp. 98-118). Hershey, PA: Information Science ally, we will extend our prototype focused on Reference. doi:10.4018/978-1-4666-4169-3. floods to earthquake events. ch007.

Core Science Team Kunz, M., Mühr, B., Kunz-Plapp, T., Daniell, J. E., Khazai, B., Wenzel, F., Vannieuwen- Joachim Fohringer huyse, M., Comes, T., Elmer, F., Schröter, K., Silke Eggert Fohringer, J., Münzberg, T., Lucas, C., Zschau, Doris Dransch J. (2013): Investigation of superstorm Sandy Section 1.5 Geoinformatics, GFZ 2012 in a multi-disciplinary approach. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 13, pp. André Dittrich 2579-2598. Christian Lucas Stefan Hinz Kunz, M., Mühr, B., Schröter, K., Kunz-Plapp, Institute of Photogrammetry and Remote T., Daniell, J., Khazai, B., Wenzel, F., Vannieu- Sensing, KIT wenhuyse, M., Gomes, T., Münzberg, T., Elmer, F., Fohringer, J., Lucas, C., Trieselmann, W., Publications Zschau, J. (2013): Near Real-Time Forensic Disaster Analysis: experiences from hurricane Dittrich, A., & Lucas, C. (2013). A step towards Sandy. General Assembly European Geo- real-time analysis of major disaster events sciences Union (Vienna, Austria 2013). based on tweets. In T. Comes, F. Fiedrich, S.

Fig. 1: Map of Cebu City in the Philippines with classified Twitter messages after an earthquake on 24 October 2013. 24 Forensic Disaster Analysis Development of a CEDIM Database and Implementation of Case-Based Reasoning for Analytical Support

Stella Möhrle, Wolfgang Raskob

Introduction Aims/Objective

Case-based reasoning (CBR) is a problem solv- The objectives are the development of a struc- ing paradigm. In order to solve new problems, tured storage facility of different kinds of his- previously experienced problem situations are toric disasters and the implementation of CBR utilized. CBR makes use of similarity between in the frame of FDA. Hence, attributes need to problems and offers the possibility to quickly be gathered capturing general and event spe- draw conclusions. The project “Development cific characteristics. Further, similarity functions of a CEDIM database and implementation of need to be defined, which are dependent on the case-based reasoning for analytical support” event and on the required information from the addresses the Near Real-Time characteristic of past. The application will be implemented and the Forensic Disaster Analysis (FDA) by pro- support Near Real-Time assessments gained viding a useful methodology, which can be ap- from similar historic events. plied by all institutes conducting first rapid as- sessments. Moreover, having a cross-sectoral Project status task, the project supports the interdisciplinary quality of CEDIM. The establishment of a com- Starting in 2012, the work focused this year on mon database and the implementation of the further improving individual aspects of the CBR CBR functionalities needs close collaboration system and the database. By means of expert between all experts. discussions, the attributes were gathered and structured. Afterwards, the database was es- tablished and first historic events were integrat- ed. The data model comprises earthquakes,

Projects

First rapid Event Query Further assessments analysis

Historic events

Internet

Problem

Retrieve New Case Similar Cases

Reuse CEDIM database Learnedcase Suggestedsolution Retain Revise

Confirmed solution

Fig. 1: The methodology CBR provides an analysis support for other participating project partners in order to conduct first rapid assessments. In the event of a disaster, members of the team can query similar historic events via a web interface. The CBR cycle illustrated is based on Aamodt, A. and Plaza, E. (1994): Case-Based Reasoning: Foundational Issues, Methodological Variations, and System Approaches. Forensic Disaster Analysis 25 floods and storms. Further, a new frame of the Core Science Team CBR application was set up. The application is programmed in Java. The focus here is on Stella Möhrle the development of a flexible application, which Thomas Münzberg can be configured by XML files. The develop- Wolfgang Raskob ment is still ongoing. Parallel to this, approach- Tim Müller es for the similarity calculations and technical Lijun Lin implementations are under consideration. Evgenia Deines Stefan Wandler Outlook Andreas Motzke Institute for Nuclear and Energy The CBR application will be developed further, Technologies, KIT including research activities on similarity calcu- lations. The research is accompanied by dis- cussions with experts and the implementation is realized in an iterative manner. The imple- mentation concerns the CBR functionalities as well as the data in- and output during a current event. In the long term, the query should be im- plemented via a web interface.

Assessment of Indirect Losses and Economic Impacts

Thomas Münzberg, Marcus Wiens, Frank Schultmann

Introduction Project Status

The increasing exposure and vulnerability of Two particularly challenging objectives of the our modern interlaced societies against natural project are its Near Real-Time character on the and man-made disasters intensifies the impact one hand (quick assessment) and the difficulty of hazards on people, buildings and infrastruc- of measuring indirect impacts on the other (in- ture. Beside the resulting direct impacts, there direct assessment). The problem with quick as- are many indirect consequences that are not sessments is that during the first few hours of obvious at the beginning of a disaster. Forensic a disaster the situation is highly uncertain. Only Disaster Analysis (FDA) allows the Near Real- little information about the magnitude of a dis- Time assessment of economic impacts, be it aster and its potential direct impacts are known direct or indirect damages that occur due to in the beginning. The limited information that business and supply chain interruptions. is available cannot be verified with respect to source or reliability. At the same time, the same Aims/Objective reliability is drastically reduced due to wide- spread panic, shock and stress which prevail The objective of the project is the development under disaster conditions. Therefore, flexibility of a method that enables the rapid assessment is needed for quick updates and for the consid- of indirect economic damages of a disaster. eration of new data. These indirect damages result from business and supply chain interruptions. 26 Forensic Disaster Analysis

In 2013, the main focus of research was on Outlook an adaptable vulnerability framework that cap- tures the specific characteristics of a system This report is basically related to the confer- and considers the preferences of stakeholders ence paper of Comes & Vannieuwenhuyse, and decision-makers. The contribution to dis- 2013 and the authors’ preliminary work on this aster management, especially rapid assess- topic. In one future project the methodology of ment of economic impacts, is threefold: First, indirect assessment will be partly applied with the interdependencies between the population the aim to identify key factors of industrial vul- and critical infrastructures were analysed and nerability of the metropolitan area of Stuttgart their respective vulnerability was determined. (Germany). Linear input-output models were applied to es- timate the industries’ lost output and indirect Core Science Team effects resulting from supply chain disruptions. Additionally other sources of information, such Tina Comes as Twitter, the Internet or experiences of past Majorie Vannieuwenhuyse events (Case-based reasoning) complemented Marcus Wiens the research. Second, a scalable and static in- Frank Schultmann dicator framework was applied to determine Hanns-Maximilian Schmidt the size of damage at a given time. The model Institute for Industrial Production, KIT identifies the most important vulnerability driv- ers, taking into account the goals of the differ- Thomas Münzberg ent stakeholders and decision-makers. Third, Institute for Nuclear and Energy a scalable and dynamic model was proposed Technologies, KIT that allows for a more flexible assessment pro- cess. Publications

This model is able to adapt changes in environ- Comes, T., Vannieuwenhuyse, M. (2013) IC- mental factors and new available information, Tbased Near Real-Time decision support for which are permanently up-dated and revised. disaster and crisis management. Workshop The mechanisms involved are kept generally on Exploring New Directions for Decisions in valid, so that the application of the framework the Internet Age, May 29-31, 2013. See http:// is not limited to specific countries or a particular ewgdssthessaloniki2013.files.wordpress. kind of disaster. The proposed framework was com/2013/05/ewg-dss_thessaloniki_2013_ introduced at a workshop on exploring new proceedings.pdf directions for decisions in the internet age in Thessaloniki in 2013. At the workshop, the ap- proach was illustrated for the case of Hurricane Sandy in 2012 to exemplify the Near Real-Time assessment procedure (Comes & Vannieuwen- huyse, 2013). Forensic Disaster Analysis 27 Causal Loss Analysis

Susan Brink, James Daniell, Friedemann Wenzel, Bijan Khazai, Tina Kunz-Plapp

Introduction Outlook

Immediately after a hazard impacts a popula- It is hoped that the “Causal Loss Analysis” pro- tion, there are many important questions raised ject will identify some of the key indicators re- about the level of impact and the emergency quired for study in FDA in the Near Real-Time response needs. Immediate response is often of a disaster. By identifying such indicators, this required before complete data are available. provides a focus for a holistic view of the shel- The causal loss analysis project focuses on ter needs post-disaster as well as other poten- creating methodologies to estimate and identify tial insights on aid, recovery and reconstruction the key indicators and root causes in the imme- needs. diate impact of a major event in terms of build- ing damage and homelessness/shelter needs Core Science Team based on widely available data. This allows for the quantification of the scale of the disaster for Susan Brink response. James Daniell Friedemann Wenzel Aims/Objective Bijan Khazai Tina Kunz-Plapp Historic catastrophic events (geophysical and Geophysical Institute, KIT hydro-meteorological) of the past 40 to 50 years will be analysed to understand the aggravat- Publications ing factors (socio-economic, regional building practices, weather, etc.) that affect the impact Daniell, J.E. (2013): The development of socio- of a hazard. Using the parsimonious modelling economic fragility functions for use in world- approach, socio-economic fragility functions wide rapid earthquake loss estimation proce- as per Daniell (2013) will be calculated and dures, PhD Thesis (unpublished), Karlsruhe calibrated with a selected database of historic Institute of Technology. events from CATDAT to develop a standard relationship between the hazard intensity, loss Daniell, J. E.; Wenzel, F.; Khazai, B. (2012): and other regional data that are widely avail- The normalisation of socio-economic losses able (e. g. HDI, population density) and the to- from historic worldwide earthquakes from 1900 tal impact of the event. This project also has to 2012, Paper No. 2027. In: Proceedings of synergies with the CEDIM “Earthquake Loss the 15th World Conference of Earthquake Engi- Analysis” project. Such methods were used in neering, Lisbon, Portugal. quantification of losses post-disaster in the Bo- hol earthquake and Haiyan typhoon in 2013. Khazai, B.; Daniell, J. E.; Franchin, P.; Cavalie- ri, F.; Vangelsten, B. V.; Iervolino, I.; Esposito, Analysis will be done on individual (and groups S. (2012): A New Approach to Modeling Post- of) natural disaster events where data are Earthquake Shelter Demand in the Aftermath available at a local scale in order to determine of Earthquakes: Integrating Social, Paper No. the influence of individual factors on disaster 2015. In : Proceedings of the 15th World Con- impacts beginning with shelter needs (building ference of Earthquake Engineering, Lisbon, damage, homelessness, utilities, etc.). The key Portugal. indicators then will serve as a proxy for the po- tential scale and impact of a disaster and the Khazai, B.; Daniell, J. E.; Kunz-Plapp, T.; Wen- time aspect leading to a potential catastrophe. zel, F.; Vervaeck, A.; Mühr, B. (2011): Shelter report for the Oct. 23 2011 Eastern Turkey Earthquake. CEDIM Forensic Earthquake Analysis Group. Available online at http://www. cedim.de/download/CEDIMForensicEQAGTur- keyVanEQ_Report3.pdf. 28 Forensic Disaster Analysis Information Gap Analysis: Near Real-Time Evaluation of Disaster Response

Trevor Girard

Introduction uses the information provided by the disaster management system within the first 0-5 days The quality of a disaster response can affect of the response. The data are collected from how severely a society is harmed by a dis- publicly available sources such as ReliefWeb astrous event. While an efficient disaster re- and sorted under various categories which sponse can help to reduce casualties and suf- represent each aspect of disaster response. fering, a less efficient response may aggravate This process was carried out for 12 disasters the situation. In order to include the disaster and the information under each category was response as a potentially contributing fac- then compared. The comparisons resulted in tor to the overall disaster impact, a pilot study the establishment of best practices under each has been started to analyse disaster response category. It was observed that most disaster in Near Real-Time. In contrast to the typical management systems produced information “lessons learned reports” from past disasters, under almost every category and some pro- such a Near Real-Time evaluation needs to be duced information much quicker than others. based on data which are produced immediately Hence, categories without information, or with following the disaster. delayed information, represented potential de- ficiencies in response. Consequently, the cat- Aims/Objective egories could act as indicators for measuring the performance of disaster response. The two The overall goal of the project is to develop a criteria (amount of data and timeliness) then methodology for analysing disaster response allow for these indicators to be quantified. As in Near Real-Time. The methodology needs illustrated in figure 1, each piece of critical in- to be quantifiable so that comparisons can be formation was separated into three types: ba- made between disasters. The methodology sic data (who, what, where, when), analysis also needs to be sufficiently tested following (how), and root causes (how come). A formula actual disasters to confirm the viability of the was then devised for calculating the value of approach. each information type. The dotted lines identify where the information gaps are, and therefore Project status indicate which aspects of the disaster response potentially require improvement. So far, a methodology for analysing disaster response in Near Real-Time has been devel- Core Science Team oped and applied in the CEDIM FDA activities on tropical cyclone Phailin in India and the Bo- Trevor Girard hol Earthquake in the Philippines. The analysis Geophysical Institute, KIT

3 Types of Information Basic data = who, what, when, where (quantified by reviewing how much is produced and the speed of delivery) Analysis = how, so what (quantified same as basic data but more forgiving time-scale) Root causes = how come (quantified using only amount of info - timing not relevant to immediate response) Gaps (missing info or slower to produce): color depicts information type.

Fig. 1: Information Gap Analysis (using a select number of indicators) of the disaster response to Cyclone Phailin, India. Forensic Disaster Analysis 29

FDA Task Force Activities

Super Typhoon Haiyan/Yolanda

Michael Kunz, James Daniell, Bernhard Mühr, Trevor Girard, Bijan Khazai, André Dittrich, Joa- chim Fohringer, Christian Lucas, Tina Kunz-Plapp

Overview The following summary draws on the 2nd CE- DIM report released on 13 Nov. 2013 and, thus, With the highest wind speed ever observed is based on the information that was available during landfall, Typhoon Haiyan caused wide- up to that day. spread destructions and several thousand fa- talities in the Philippines on 7 and 8 Novem- Hazard Information ber 2013. CEDIM decided to set an FDA task force into action on 9 November. Two reports In 2013, the tropical cyclone (TC) activity in have been compiled so far, the first one on the north-western Pacific was very high; in this 10 Nov., 11 UTC, the second three days later. year, four out of five typhoons of the highest CEDIM’s estimates on destroyed buildings and category 5 occurred in this region. Storm Hai- fatalities have received major attention in the yan, referred to as Yolanda in the Philippines, international media. At KIT, CEDIM research- formed on 3 October about 100 kilometres ers contributed to a charity event one week af- southeast of Micronesia. Following a west- ter Haiyan.

Fig. 1: Path of Haiyan/Yolanda and forecasted track (as from 10 November 2013, 06 UTC) Source: JTWC imported into Google Maps. 30 Forensic Disaster Analysis

northwesterly track, it was classified as a ty- phoon (10-min mean wind speed > 120 km/h) on 4 Nov. Within only 36 hours, Haiyan grew to a typhoon of the highest category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. With warm waters of at least 26 °C, low wind shear, and excellent upper-level outflow conditions, Hai- yan remained a category 5 storm until land- fall. Shortly after reaching peak intensity on 8th Nov., Haiyan made landfall on the Philippine island of Samar near Guiuan (Fig. 1). With maximum sustained wind speed of 314 km/h and peak wind gusts of 380 km/h, it was one of the strongest TCs ever observed in history. The high wind speeds were comparable to an EF4-5 tornado, the related extraordinary storm surge comparable to a tsunami and torrential rain (locally around 500 mm) devastated sever- al Philippine regions, particularly the provinces of Samar and Leyte. After landfall there was Fig. 2: An early view as of 13 November 2013 of very little weakening at first and Haiyan kept its the Province level destroyed and damaged build- intensity as a typhoon of the highest category ing counts as quantified by various municipalities until 8th Nov. (06 UTC). Afterwards, the typhoon provincial disaster response offices (PDRRMC) and followed a more northerly track, lost its intensi- national data (NDRRMC) showing over 300,000 ty, and made landfall in north-eastern Vietnam buildings currently counted with damaged (it is on 10 Nov. 2013 (21 UTC). expected this is about 30 % of the final total to be counted given that the Eastern Visayas data is cur- Social Impacts rently not in).

Homeless data have been collected from Na- tional/Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction and 1,000,000 structures needing repairing or re- Management Council (NDRRMC/PDRRMC) construction as part of the economic loss cal- reports throughout the region, news articles, culations. Damage to buildings was assessed comments on specific towns and other sources afterwards on the basis of available information of data. In the 1st FDA report, the homeless to- from different networks, for example, the PDR- tal was calculated to be 2.1 million long-term RMC and NDRRMCs (provincial and national homeless and 6 million short-term homeless disaster management councils) and through using the socioeconomic fragility function the work of the Humanitarian OpenStreetMap method (Daniell, 2013). In the 2nd FDA report, Team (HOT) in certain locations like Tacloban the number of short- and long-term homeless and Roxas City. For the region most affected, was estimated to be 2.1 and 4.7 million, re- Northern Leyte with the city of Tacloban, the spectively. In total, more than 14 million people destruction was initially canvassed at 70-80 % were expected to be affected by the storm (Fig. of homes destroyed or severely damaged. 2 shows some of the modelling methods). When considering damage on municipality lev- el, it was obvious that only a few of the munici- As of 12 December 2013, around 4 million peo- palities were able to return final loss statistics ple are still homeless, with around 2.9 million within a week. predicted to be long-term homeless, given the housing destruction. Fatalities were not mod- Although counting continues, as of 12 Decem- elled as part of the study, but the death and ber 2013, around 600,000 houses have been missing toll is currently around 8,000. deemed to be destroyed or severely damaged, and around 600,000 houses also damaged Damage Estimates making a total of 1.2 million buildings damaged.

CEDIM, through the same rapid methodology, Direct economic costs were estimated given estimated that the final total could be around the capital stock and gross domestic product 400,000 buildings destroyed and around (GDP) of the disaster path and the destruction 600,000 buildings damaged adding up to seen in locations of Leyte, Cebu and Aklan. Forensic Disaster Analysis 31

Fig. 3: The modelled wind speed combined with historic damage functions and Capital stock and GDP were used to create the economic loss estimate in addition to the storm surge (Daniell, 2013).

Using the 70-80 % destroyed rate for certain tions and crop losses (sugar cane and rice) can parts of Leyte, northern Cebu and parts of Ak- be expected to be huge, and industry losses lan and Iloilo, the mean damage ratio (MDR) in the affected regions will probably be at least comes to around 30 % for Leyte. In other loca- 40 % of the GDP – around $4.1 billion in total. tions like Aklan or Samar, an MDR of 15 % is It can be expected that the damages are in the likely, based on the initial estimates of house order of 14 times larger compared to Typhoon destruction. In less affected regions, MDRs of Bopha ($1.04 billion), which hit the Philippines 1-5 % were calculated based on the economic in 2012. vulnerability functions. The extent of the impact of TC Haiyan was Reconstruction costs in the order of $9.5 billion examined using the historic economic losses in total were estimated from CATDAT as a first from the past 63 seasons of typhoons and trop- estimate for all affected regions (Fig. 3). Planta- ical storms. Whereas total loss from Haiyan

Fig. 4: Normalized Economic Losses from 1950-2013 for Philippines typhoons (CATDAT). 32 Forensic Disaster Analysis

was estimated around $14 billion, no historic typhoon season between 1950 and 2012 has exceeded a total of $2.5 billion. In this analy- sis, only inflation adjustment was considered. When adjusting for the population increase through time to calculate a predicted “as if to- day” scenario of historic typhoons for the expo- sure of today, Haiyan still is the largest event even when reproducing these historic typhoons (Fig. 4).

Social Sensors

Social networking services like Facebook, Google or Twitter allow easy and rapid shar- ing of various kind of information to obtain in- sight into the mood of the population and the extent of damage from the perspective of eye- witnesses. Between 4 and 12 Nov., 5,159 Twit- ter messages, so called tweets, localized in the region of interest and containing one or more specified keywords from the field of “cyclonic storms” were extracted.

Four categories were set up: damage, evacua- tion, call/pray for help/donations for the victims and not relevant. Messages most interesting for rapid hazard estimation make up about 10 % of all messages: tweets on evacuations and damage can be used for rapid disaster assess- ment. Most of the messages were counted in the categories of damage or call/pray for help/ donations for the victims (Fig. 5). In contrast, Fig. 5: Spatial distribution of tweets on national the topic of evacuation was only present in very level. Two hotspots of Twitter activity Manila and few messages. Cebu City are marked clearly (upper) and Shares of categorized messages (lower). Conclusion

Typhoon Haiyan/Yolanda was one of the most Core Science Team severe tropical cyclones in history. The dam- age pattern resembles other phenomena – a Michael Kunz tsunami near the coast, and a severe tornado Bernhard Mühr but with a spatial extent of more than 100 km. Institute for Meteorology and Climate Re- In the first two reports, CEDIM researchers de- search, KIT scribed the situation that was very confusing at the beginning (note that officials reported on James Daniell around 100 fatalities two days after the storm) Bijan Khazai and estimated the damages and number of Trevor Girard homeless based on historic events and by ap- Tina Kunz-Plapp plication of simplified models. In the next step, Geophysical Insitute, KIT it is intended to analyse at a deeper level the evacuation process and the shelters on a local André Dittrich or municipal scale. Christian Lucas Institute of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, KIT

Joachim Fohringer Section 1.5 Geoinformatics, GFZ Forensic Disaster Analysis 33

References Super Taifun Haiyan/Yolanda Daniell, J., Mühr, B., Kunz-Plapp, T (2013): Super Typhoon Haiyan/Yolanda – CEDIM FDA Mit den höchsten Windgeschwindigkeiten, Group Report No. 1, 11 Nov. 2013, 7 p. die während des Auftreffens eines tropischen Wirbelsturms auf Land je beobachtet wur- Daniell, J., Mühr, B., Girard, T., Dittrich, A., den, führ­te Taifun Haiyan am 7. / 8. Novem- Fohringer, J., Lucas, C., Kunz-Plapp, T (2013): ber 2013 zu schwersten Verwüstungen auf Super Typhoon Haiyan/Yolanda – CEDIM FDA den Philippinen. Für diese Katastrophe wurde Group Report No. 2, 13 Nov. 2013, 25 p. eine CEDIM-FDA-Aktivität gestartet, aus der bisher zwei Berichte hervorgingen, die am See also 10. bzw. 13. November veröffentlicht wurden. http://www.cedim.de/typhoon-haiyan.php Die Schätzungen von CEDIM zu Opferzah­ len und beschädigten Gebäuden fanden eine hohe Aufmerksamkeit in den internationalen - vor allem britischen – Medien. Am KIT fand wenige Tage nach der Katastrophe eine Be­ nefizveranstaltung zugunsten der Universität Tacloban statt, auf der CEDIM-Wissenschaftler be­richteten.

CEDIM Near Real-Time FDA Activity on Super Cyclone “Phailin”, Bay of Bengal, India

Bernhard Mühr, Daniel Köbele, Tina Bessel, Joachim Fohringer, Christian Lucas, Trevor Girard, Werner Trieselmann

Introduction Evolution of tropical cyclone Phailin

In the middle of October 2013, a very strong Phailin originated from a tropical disturbance cyclone developed over the Bay of Bengal. Su- that moved westward over the Andaman Sea. per cyclone 02B Phailin showed average wind On October 9, 2013, the cloud complex formed speeds of up to 259 km/h, making the storm a a closed cyclonic circulation near the archipel- category 5 cyclone - the highest category on ago of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. The Indian then intensified into a tropical storm. At this Meteorological Department (IMD) classified time, many forecast models were in agreement Phailin as “Super Cyclonic Storm”, which is that the tropical storm would make its way dur- the highest category of the IMD tropical inten- ing the following days over the Bay of Bengal sity scale. Phailin became one of the strongest into a west-northwesterly direction, heading for tropical cyclones ever recorded over the North the east coast of India. The numerical weather Indian Ocean. models predicted only a moderate intensifi- cation and the system should arrive as a cat- The track led towards the northeast of India, egory 1 tropical cyclone named Phailin at the where the tropical cyclone made landfall in the Indian mainland. But on October 10, 2013, the federal state of Odisha and caused enormous tropical storm strengthened in an unexpectedly damage. In view of the cyclone’s strength, the and almost unprecedentedly rapid fashion into track and the history of deadly tropical cyclones a fully developed category 5 tropical cyclone in the Bay of Bengal area, a CEDIM FDA activ- east of the Andamans. ity was advised. 34 Forensic Disaster Analysis

Fig. 1: Satellite Image (Visible), 11 October 2013, MTSAT-2. Image Credit: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil

On October 12, 2013, the centre of Phailin Facts that made Phailin extraordinary crossed the coastline at 15:45 UTC south of the city of Brahmapur in the Indian federal state Intensity (central pressure, wind speeds): of Odisha. At that time, Phailin was still a cat- Phailin showed its maximum intensity between egory 4 cyclone. The mean wind speeds taken October 11, 12 UTC, and October 12, 00 UTC in from satellite observations were about 120 kt the middle of the Bay of Bengal. With maximum (222 km/h). The weather station in Gopalpur 1 min-sustained winds of 140 kt (259 km/h) and observed a gust of 185 km/h at the storm’s gusts as strong as 170 kt (315 km/h), Phailin northern eyewall. Before the weather station was classified as a category 5 super cyclone. failed at 17:10 UTC, a minimum air pressure Phailin equalled the typhoon Usagi, which of 937.4 hPa was measured. After landfall, the was previously the world’s strongest tropical former super cyclone weakened rapidly into a cyclone of the 2013 season over the western category 2 tropical cyclone. Phailin moved in Pacific. Phailin was the first super cyclone in a northerly direction towards the Himalaya and the Indian Ocean since 2007 and one of the on October 13, the cyclone was identified as strongest ever observed in this area. Only only a tropical depression over the North East Gonu in 2007 was a stronger cyclone (145 kt, of India. 269 km/h).

According to satellite observations (NOAA) Phailin had a minimum central pressure of 910 hPa on October 10 and 11, one of the lowest Forensic Disaster Analysis 35 pressures ever observed in the territory of the Over 12 million people have been affected by North Indian Ocean. However, these observa- cyclone Phailin in Odisha and Andhra Pradesh tions are uncertain as buoy measurements and state respectively. The number of disaster-hit reconnaissance flights are not available in the villages across 20 districts has risen to more region for verification. The Joint Typhoon Warn- than 18,000. The worst affected districts in ing Center (JTWC) issued a minimum central Andhra Pradesh state are the Visakhapatnam pressure of 914 hPa, and the value of 918 hPa and Srikakulam districts, and in Odisha state was given by the Naval Research Laboratory the Ganjam, Barhampur, Puri, and Khurdha (NRL). districts.

Rapid Development: At least 46 people died – a small number, com- The mean wind speed on October 10, 2013, pared to similarly strong events in the past. 00 UTC, was 55 kt (102 km/h). Only 24 hours Due to one of the largest evacuations in Indian later, this had increased to 135 kt (250 km/h). history, the storm event didn’t cause more fa- Thus, within only one day the tropical storm talities. The IMD issued warnings days ahead grew into a category 4 tropical cyclone, which of Phailin´s landfall, so more than 1.5 million is the second highest category according to the people were brought to safety. Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. This was not expected by most of the model forecasts. More than 250,000 houses have been either partially or fully damaged. Crop areas with an Extent: accumulated size of more than 600,000 ha During its maximum intensity, Phailin had an have been destroyed. Phailin caused wide- enormous extent. On satellite images the outer spread power outages and cut off water supply. cloud bands are spiralling as far as over Sri Main highways have been affected by uproot- Lanka and the southern tip of India in the south ed trees, eroded streets and congestion. The and over northern Bangladesh and even the railway infrastructure suffered severe damag- Himalaya at the northern edge of the storm. es and more than 165 trains were cancelled. The storm’s circulation covered nearly the en- Service at Biju Patnaik airport in Bhubaneswar tire Bay of Bengal and affected an area roughly was disrupted and the majority of flights were 2,500 km in diameter. The storm centre, the cancelled on October 12. eye, is clearly visible until landfall, indicating the symmetrical structure and strength. The Indian power ministry stated that cyclone Phailin has caused substantial damage to lo- CEDIM FDA Activity cal power transmission lines in the coastal dis- tricts of Odisha and Andhra Pradesh. In several Because of the storm intensity while making districts, the power supply has been switched landfall in a pretty densely populated Indian off by the authorities. In the Ganjam district, area and because of India’s history concerning Odisha, more than 3,000 villages have been deadly cyclones, CEDIM put an FDA alert into affected by the black-out. No damages have effect. Table 1 gives an overview of CEDIM ac- been reported to high tension wires and power tivities before, during and after the tropical cy- generation units. More than 7,000 telephone clone Phailin. CEDIM was able to get informa- towers have been destroyed, but most of them tion about the twitter activity around Phailin´s have been restored within two days. In the landfall, as well as information about loss and meantime, telecommunication operators have damage, and presented an information gap shared their infrastructure to provide a mobile analysis. network.

Loss and Damage Vehicle movement on National Highway 5, which connects Kolkata to Chennai and runs The tropical cyclone Phailin left enormous dam- along the Eastern coast, came to a standstill age in India. While in the coastal areas of the on October 12. Trucks and cars could be seen federal states of Odisha and Andhra Pradesh lined up along the highway since all movement fierce winds and a storm surge were the main towards the cyclone area had been restricted problems, torrential rainfall caused flooding and by the state administration. After the landfall of landslides in the interior of Odisha and Andhra Phailin, countless streets were blocked due to Pradesh, as well as in the states of Jharkhand, uprooted trees and thousands of toppled trans- Bihar and Chhattisgarh. mission towers along the highways. Many ve- hicles have been toppled by strong winds and 36 Forensic Disaster Analysis

Table 1: Timeline of the FDA activity concerning Phailin

Thursday, 10 October 2013, 09:00 UTC Advance warning on website Wettergefahren- Frühwarnung

Thursday, 10 October 2013, 22:38 UTC Email notification with preliminary information and advice of a possible FDA activity; FDA dis- tribution list

Friday, 11 October 2013, 08:30 UTC Warning on website Wettergefahren-Frühwar- nung

Friday, 11 October 2013, 09:35 UTC FDA pre-alert by sending sms to FDA distribu- tion list.

Friday, 11 October 2013, 13:11 UTC Email sent to FDA distribution list containing preliminary information

Saturday, 12 October 2013, 09:43 UTC FDA alert by sending sms to FDA distribution list. All FDA participants were put on the alert.

Saturday, 12 October 2013, 11:27 UTC Email sent to FDA distribution list containing available information about cyclone and FDA activity

Saturday, 12 October 2013, 12:30 UTC Warning on website Wettergefahren-Frühwar- nung

Saturday, 12 October 2013, 15:15 UTC Phailin made landfall near Gopalpur (Odisha, India)

Sunday, 13 October 2013, 10:00 UTC Final warning on website Wettergefahren- Frühwarnung

Monday, 14 October 2013, 08:30 UTC Warning ended on website Wettergefahren- Frühwarnung

Tuesday, 15 October 2013, 21:15 UTC Extensive analysis about Phailin (meteorologi- cal information, historical context, impact) on website Wettergefahren-Frühwarnung (in Ger- man)

Monday, 21 October 2013 Report 1 on CEDIM website (in English)

Thursday, 24 October 2013 Report 2 on CEDIM website (in English)

Thursday, 24 October 2013 FDA activity ended Forensic Disaster Analysis 37 suffered severe damages. Although, most main occurred, or identifying levels of needs met connections had been restored, clearance of or outstanding. ‘Root Causes’ identify why as- debris on the roads and rebuilding of eroded pects of the disaster occurred. For example, streets was still ongoing. the number of low casualties observed in the aftermath of cyclone Phailin was identified as Paradip port, one of the largest ports in India, being the result of a good warning system and has been cut off for several days since two excellent coordination between agencies which connecting roads caved in and there was no successfully evacuated almost one million peo- access to the 10 km long channel to the port. ple prior to landfall. This type of information is Three days after Phailin hit the coast, cargo very important to disaster risk reduction activi- handling, vessel movement and rail movement ties, which attempt to learn from past failures have resumed. and success by understanding the root causes of each. Information Gap Analysis The Basic Data are quantified by reviewing The chart below (Fig. 2) is the result of an how much is produced and how fast each piece analysis of the information produced within the of information is provided. Therefore, each of first 4 days following landfall. The information the who, what, where, and when types of infor- was obtained from ReliefWeb (http://reliefweb. mation, unique to each category, is measured int/disaster/tc-2013-000133-ind), and was re- based on how fast it is produced. The Analy- trieved as it was released. All information ob- sis information is also quantified in this way tained was categorized under the headings list- but with a more forgiving time-scale as it will ed on the left side of the graph. Three types of understandably take a little longer to produce. information have been identified as Basic Data, The Root Causes are quantified using only the Analysis, and Root Causes. ‘Basic data’ makes amount of information, as the timing of this in- up the majority of the information and answers formation is not relevant to the immediate dis- the questions of who, what, where, and when. aster response. ‘Analysis’ describes results of inquiry or meas- urement, such as explaining how disruptions

Monitoring and Prediction 3 Types of Information Affected areas or people Basic data = who, what, when, Casualties where (quantified by reviewing Warnings how much is produced and the Life Saving Response speed of delivery) Handling of fatalities Analysis = how, so what Effects on Basic Human Needs (quantified same as basic data Meeting Basic Human Needs but more forgiving time-scale) Transportation Disruptions Root causes = how come Meeting Trans. Needs (quantified using only amount Medical Disruptions Basic data Meeting Medical Needs of info - timing not relevant to immediate responseAnalysis) Communication Disruptions Root causes Meeting Comm. Needs Other System Disruptions Gaps (missing info or slower Meeting Other Needs to produce): color depicts Needs Assessment information type. Prioritisation of Needs Coordination of Response Financing Response Public Resources Public Communication 0% 20%40% 60%80% 100% (calculated value of data provided)

Fig. 2: Information Gap Analysis (Information as of 16 Oct 2013) of Super Cyclone Phailin, India. Image Credit: CEDIM 38 Forensic Disaster Analysis

Fig. 3: Number of tweets per hours containing one of the keywords “phailin” and “cyclone” from October 9, 18 UTC, until October 14, 16 UTC

Twitter based Damage Assessment Publications

To get rapid information on what eye-witnesses B. Mühr, D. Köbele, T. Bessel, J. Fohringer, C. report from the affected area, we analysed twit- Lucas: Super Cyclonic Storm 02B “Phailin” – ter messages related to the cyclone “Phailin”. information as of 15 October 2013, 1st report, Twitter messages (tweets) with various key- http://www.cedim.de/download/CEDIM-Phai- words such as “cyclone”, “Phailin”, “shelter”, lin_Report1.pdf,11 pages. “storm” or “power outage” have been recorded for a period of 72 hours from the day before B. Mühr, D. Köbele, T. Bessel, J. Fohringer, C. Phailins landfall on October 11. During the hour Lucas, T. Girard: Super Cyclonic Storm 02B of landfall on October 12, around 16 UTC, 25 “Phailin” – information as of 24 October 2013, event related tweets per minute were counted 2nd report, http://www.cedim.de/download/CE- and analysed. DIM-Phailin_Report2.pdf,16 pages.

Core Science Team B.Mühr, D.Köbele: Tropischer Wirbelsturm Su- perzyklon “Phailin” - Indien, http://www.wetterge- Bernhard Mühr fahren-fruehwarnung.de/Ereignis/20131015_e.html. Daniel Köbele Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research, KIT

Tina Bessel, Institute of Economics, KIT

Christian Lucas, Institute of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, KIT

Joachim Fohringer Section 1.5 Geoinformatics, GFZ

Trevor Girard Geophysical Institute, KIT

Werner Trieselmann Section 2.1 Physics of Earthquakes and Volcanoes, GFZ Forensic Disaster Analysis 39

Superzyklon “Phailin”, Golf von Bengalen, eine FDA-Aktivität erforderlich. In Indien gelang Indien es dank eines funktionierenden Warnmanage- ments, mehr als eine Million Menschen recht­ Wenngleich tropische Wirbelstürme im nord- zeitig in Sicherheit zu bringen und die Zahl der westlichen Pazifik oder im Atlantik häufiger Todesopfer gering zu halten. Vor nur 14 Jahren vorkommen, so zählt auch der Golf von Benga- hatte mit dem Odisha Cyclone ein vergleichbar len zu den bevorzugten Wirbelsturmgebieten starker Wirbelsturm in derselben Region mehr der Welt. 26 der 35 Wirbelstürme, die weltweit als 9.000 Todesopfer gefordert. Die Schäden, die meisten Todesopfer forderten, gingen in die Phailin in den Bundesstaaten Odisha und den Anrainerstaaten Indien, Bangladesh oder Andhra Pradesh anrichtete, waren gleichwohl Burma an Land. Am 9. Oktober bildete eine tro- enorm. pische Störung über der Andamanensee eine geschlossene Zirkulation aus, die sich zum Wie die Analyse zeigt, verfügt Indien mittler- Tropensturm Phailin intensivierte. Entgegen weile über ein funktionierendes Warnmanage- der meisten Prognosen nahm Phailin eine ment und konnte dem Sturm und seinen Fol- rasante Entwicklung und reifte innerhalb von gen wirkungsvoll begegnen. 24 Stunden zu einem Zyklon der Kategorie 4 heran. Nur wenig später war die höchste Ka- Über die Zugbahn und die Intensität des Wir- tegorie 5 erreicht. Die Windgeschwindigkeiten belsturms, sowie die betroffenen Gebiete und betrugen in Böen mehr als 300 km/h und Phai- entstandenen Schäden gibt der CEDIM Report lin wurde zu einem der stärksten tropischen http://www.cedim.de/download/CEDIM-Phai- Wirbelstürme, die je im Golf von Bengalen tob- lin_Report2.pdf Auskunft. ten. Die Historie, die enorme Ausdehnung, die prognostizierte Zugbahn und die Intensität, mit der Phailin im Indischen Bundesstaat Odisha an Land gehen sollte (Kategorie 4), machten 40 Forensic Disaster Analysis June Flood 2013 in Central Europe – Focus Germany

Kai Schröter, Bijan Khazai, Bernhard Mühr, Florian Elmer, Tina Bessel, Stella Möhrle, André Dittrich, Tina Kunz-Plapp, Werner Trieselmann, Heidi Kreibich, Michael Kunz, Jochen Zschau, Bruno Merz

Overview The first report was released on 4 June and updated twice, on 8 and 20 June. The second Starting on 31 May 2013, a large-scale flood report was published on 13 June and updated event developed in Central Europe, primar- on 27 June. Based on the data gathered during ily affecting south and east Germany and its the FDA activity, additional in-depth analyses neighbouring countries. Long lasting periods of causes and key drivers for the impacts are of heavy rain in combination with extremely currently carried out. Three scientific publica- adverse preconditions, most notably large ar- tions are in preparation, bringing into focus eas of sodden soils, caused an extreme flood the hydro-meteorological particularities of the which in terms of spatial extent and magnitude flood event in Germany in comparison to major exceeded all previous floods in Germany since historic floods, a methodology for rapid large- at least 1950. scale estimation of direct damage to residential buildings, and the analyses of impacts, disaster New record water levels occurred particularly responses and resilience in affected regions. in the Danube and Elbe catchments. Along the Parts of the CEDIM-FDA analyses contributed Elbe the region downstream of the Saale inflow to a joint paper with the Potsdam Institute for was most affected. On the Danube in Passau Climate Impact Research (PIK) on the compar- the highest inundation levels were observed ison of the extreme floods of 2002 and 2013 in since the historical flood of 1501. Large-scale the German part of the Elbe River basin (Con- inundation occurred as a consequence of lev- radt et al., 2013). ee breaches near Deggendorf (Danube), Groß Rosenburg (Saale) and Fischbeck (Elbe). Hydro-Meteorology

The June flood 2013 once again revealed that During May 2013, Central Europe was already complete flood protection is not possible. Inun- under the influence of a persistent low pressure dations caused severe damage to buildings, system, which created very favourable condi- infrastructure and agricultural lands. First esti- tions for flooding. A quasi-stationary upper level mates of total damage in Germany amount to low pressure area covering large parts of Ger- approx. 12 Billion € which is comparable to the many, France, Switzerland and northern Italy 2002 flood – the most expensive natural haz- (Fig. 1) and its associated surface low pressure ard experienced so far in Germany. systems were responsible for exceptionally wet weather conditions during the weeks previous The CEDIM Forensic Disaster Analysis (FDA) to the most intense rainfall starting on 31 May Task Force closely monitored the development until 4 June 2013. The month of May received and evolution of the June 2013 flood right up 180 % of the long-term monthly mean precipi- to the impacts on people, transportation and tation, making it the second wettest month of economy. This activity was carried out by col- May since 1881. lecting and compiling scattered and distributed information available from diverse sources in- As a consequence the infiltration capacity of cluding in-situ and remote sensors, the inter- the soils was significantly reduced favouring net, media and social sensors as well as by the formation of direct runoff. Further, in many applying CEDIM’s own rapid assessment tools. rivers in the Saale and Mulde catchment as well as in some tributaries of the Danube, the Two reports were issued: the first focused on flow conditions on 31 May 2013 were already the preconditions, meteorology and hydrology above the mean annual flood level. and a comparison with major floods from the past (Schröter et al. 2013), the second on im- According to the German Weather Service the pact and disaster management (Khazai et al. general weather situation between 18 May 2013). and 3 June was classified as “Trough Central Europe (TrM)” or “Low Central Europe (TM)” Forensic Disaster Analysis 41

Fig. 1: Deviation of the 500 hPa geopotential level (30 day average from 8 May to 7 June 2013) from the long term mean 1981-2010 (source: http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu).

(DWD 2013). Both such pressure circulations areas of the Danube and Elbe were particularly are frequently associated with widespread affected by flooding. Along the Elbe the super- heavy rain. From 29 May until 2 June the pres- position of the flood waves from the Elbe, Mul- sure pattern TM resulted in a steady transport de and Saale catchments caused new record of unstable air of subtropical origin. This air water levels downstream of the Saale inflow. In mass was forced in a wide sweep over north- the Danube catchment in Passau the conflux of east Europe into Central Europe and precipi- the flood waves from the Danube and the tated in long periods of heavy rain.

Heavy precipitation developed particularly in the northern (windward) areas of the Central Uplands and the northern Alps. In eastern Ger- many, precipitation was additionally strength- ened by convection and accompanied by thunderstorms. The map of 4-day precipitation totals from 30 May 6 UTC until 3 June 2013 6 UTC shows extensive areas in which pre- cipitation of more than 125 mm were reached (Fig. 2). Noticeable are the south of Saxony, smaller areas in the east of Thuringia as well as southern Bavaria. In Baden-Wuerttemberg the heaviest precipitation was concentrated in an area of the northern Black Forest as well as in the Swabian Jura.

Return periods of 3-day precipitation totals mostly do not exceed 25 years but do so in some regions in western Saxony and at the northern fringe of the Alps. In terms of 7-day precipitation totals, the event is more excep- tional: large parts of Saxony as well as numer- ous patches in Bavaria and Thuringia exhibit return periods above 100 years. Fig. 2: 4-day (96 hours) precipitation totals from 30 May 6 UTC until 3 June 2013 6 UTC, interpolation In Germany, all major river basins showed (1x1 km) based on station measurements (data flooding including the Weser, upper Rhine, source: REGNIE data sets of the German Weather Elbe and Danube catchments. The catchment Service (DWD)). 42 Forensic Disaster Analysis

Inn River produced the highest inundation Comparison to historic events levels since the historical flood of 1501. The June 2013 flood turned out to be the most se- The June flood 2013 ranks among a number of vere flood event in terms of spatial extent and large-scale floods (Uhlemann et al., 2010) ex- magnitude of flood peaks in Germany since perienced during the last 60 years in Germany. at least 1950. More than 45 % of the German Concerning seasonality, meteorological condi- river network was considered to be affected tions, spatial extent and magnitude the recent by flood peak discharges exceeding a statis- flood is particularly comparable to the past tical return period of five years. According to floods of August 2002 and July 1954. a preliminary statistical analysis of observed flood peak discharges, return periods above a The hydrological preconditions are compared 100-year event occurred along the Elbe River in terms of the 30-day Antecedent Precipita- stretch from Dresden (Saxony) to Wittenberge tion Index (Fig. 4, top panel) clearly shows the (Brandenburg), in the Mulde catchment, as well large amounts of precipitation accumulated as along the Danube downstream of Regens- over wide areas of Central Germany during the burg (Bavaria) and along the tributaries Isar month of May 2013. In August 2002 regions and Inn (including Salzach). of moist preconditions are localized to the northern edge of the Alps covering the south Large-scale inundation occurred as a conse- of Baden-Wuerttemberg and Bavaria and to quence of levee breaches near Deggendorf some patches in west Saxony and northern (Danube), Groß Rosenburg and Fischbeck Germany. Prior to the flood of July 1954, ar- (Elbe). Further focal points of adverse effects eas of moist preconditions are even more nar- caused by this flood event were Passau (Dan- rowed, concentrating on the northern edge of ube), Halle (Saale), Magdeburg (Elbe) (Fig. 3) . the Alps. The comparison of event precipitation

Fig. 3: Inundated area in the German parts of the Danube and Elbe River basins in June 2013. Maximum flood extent (red) derived from satellite images: 1) Inundated areas in the Elbe basin 2) Inundated area in the Danube basin (1:2,000,000) 3) Inundated area after the dike breach at Fischbeck/Elbe, 4) Inundated area after dike breach at Deggendorf/Donau (1:300,000). acquisition 20 June 2013. Forensic Disaster Analysis 43

Fig. 4: Comparison of large scale floods from July 1954, August 2002 and June 2013 in terms of 30 day Antecedent Precipitation Index (top), 7 day precipitation totals (middle) and statistical return periods of maximum peak discharges (bottom). Data sources REGNIE data sets of the German Weather Service (DWD), gauge data made available by Water and Shipping Management of the Fed. Rep. (WSV) prepared by Federal Institute for Hydrology (BfG) and environmental state offices of the federal states, status of data acquisition 20 June 2013. based on 7-day event precipitation totals (Fig 4 the flood. In the Elbe catchment, as a major mid panel) reveals that rainfall amounts and difference with previous floods, also the Saale spatial extent were far less in June 2013 than catchment was affected and significantly con- in August 2002 or July 1954. tributed to the extreme stream flow in the Elbe River in June 2013. However, in terms of spatial extent and magni- tude of flood peak discharges, the June 2013 Impact and disaster management flood exceeds these previous record floods: the recent flood produced higher flood peak General impact discharges in larger parts of the river network in Germany (Fig. 4 bottom panel). In June 2013 The June 2013 floods had severe impacts on all southern tributaries plus the northern inflows people, transportation and the economy. Nu- Naab and Regen of the Danube contributed to merous levee breaches, e. g. in Bavaria and 44 Forensic Disaster Analysis

along the Elbe, resulted in large-scale region- were not investigated during the FDA). For ex- al floods. In many areas, often thousands of ample, almost 80 % of those evacuated were in people were forced to leave their apartments, Saxony and Saxony Anhalt. Likewise, four of homes and towns due to evacuation measures. the five districts (Landkreis) that experienced The key areas affected were along the Danube over 200 hours of flood-related congestion and and Elbe and their larger tributaries. The flood disruptions also came from these two Federal event claimed 8 lives in Germany and the total States. number of deaths in all affected countries is 25. A minimum of 52,500 people have been affect- Transport infrastructure ed by evacuations in the catchment areas of the Elbe and the Danube. Despite similar flood In order to obtain accurate information on road intensities in these regions, CEDIM analyses traffic, ongoing traffic reports from police sourc- show differential impacts in terms of both evac- es in Germany were monitored from 31 May uations and transport disruptions (direct and until 4 June 2013, recorded daily from 6 am to indirect in essential sectors such as residential 12 am at 3-hour intervals and filtered for corre- buildings, business premises, and agriculture lations to the flood event. In the FDA evaluation

Fig. 5: Twitter messages on the impact of the floods per day for the week of 31 May – 6 June 2013. Forensic Disaster Analysis 45 the causes and types of traffic obstruction as Danube and Rhine were recorded between 31 well as the number and duration of disruptions May 2013 and 07 June 2013. In Saxony, Sax- which can be traced back to the flood event ony-Anhalt, Lower Saxony, Bavaria, Branden- were considered for the interregional transpor- burg and Baden-Württemberg, approximately tation network consisting of federal highways 52,549 people and 650 animals were affected. and interstate highways. Over 90 % of the evacuations were in Saxony (26,992 people) Saxony-Anhalt (11,669 peo- The main cause of disruptions (over 80 %) ple) and Bavaria (9,600). A children’s home in was overland flooding of transportation routes, Wittenberg housing approximately 70 children, whereas landslides and fallen trees contributed a nursing home in Salzlandkreis, and hospi- to the other 20 %. Almost 46 % of traffic ob- tals in Jerichower district, Anhalt-Bitterfeld and structions recorded were roads that had been Magdeburg affecting 486 patients were among closed in both directions. The full closure of a facilities that had to be evacuated The district road completely interrupts the flow of traffic on of Anhalt-Bitterfeld was the worst affected, with the routes affected, and hence probably results over 10,000 people affected by the evacua- in the greatest amount of indirect damages in tion measures, followed by 8,670 in Sächsis- comparison with other types of obstructions. In che Schweiz – Osterzgebirge and over 6,500 total, traffic obstructions lasting at least 4,800 in Nordsachsen and Deggendorf. In many ad- hours were recorded in the first four days. On ministrative districts, people saw to it that they average, a single disruption lasted for approxi- obtained private accommodation, however, mately 20 hours. large-scale temporary shelter provisions also had to be provided. Alone in the Meißen dis- Crowdsourcing using Twitter messages trict, approximately 300 from the 1,542 people who left their homes were housed in temporary To complement the situational and dam- accommodations. Of the 8,670 affected people age analysis in this FDA, 1,874 event-related in the district Sächsische Schweiz-Osterzge- Tweets (Twitter messages) from 656 users birge, 372 people were located in emergency whose content included references to the on- shelters. going flood event and contained geographic coordinates were recorded from 31 May 2013 to 7 June 2013. These messages were mapped and analysed with a list of event-related key- words, and categorized according: (1) General news containing references to the floods; (2) Official weather reports and predictions; and (3) Messages that report on affected infrastruc- ture. The development over time of the Twitter messages shows a clear clustering of event- related messages in and around the districts that were particularly affected (Fig. 5). In other areas of Germany, the floods as a topic are only visible in isolated instances. After a short maximum period of Twitter interest in the rest of Germany, it falls markedly towards the end of the week. In the affected districts, it continues to remain an important topic, especially in the area around the southern section of the Elbe (Leipzig, Dresden), and from Thursday on- wards in Magdeburg. This FDA shows promis- ing applications in the use of Twitter messages to analyse trends and retrieve concrete infor- mation to complement the structured data col- lected by other means.

Evacuations Fig. 6: Potential Resilience Index of the administra- The number of evacuations in districts that tive districts along the rivers transporting floodwa- fell in the catchment of the Lech, Elbe, Mulde, ters. 46 Forensic Disaster Analysis

Resilience by transportation disruption, evacuations and event magnitude and potential resilience based Based on social, economic and institutional on social, economic and institutional indicators indicators compiled from the German Federal at the district level shows that districts with a Statistical Office (Destatis) and using results higher potential resilience index appear to have from published studies (e. g. Fekete, 2009) that suffered less impacts. However, in-depths stud- utilized household questionnaires following the ies of this relationship are needed to advance August 2002 floods, the potential resilience the application of indicator-based evaluations (the ability to compensate for external hazards) for rapid flood impact assessments and to sup- of affected areas in the catchment of the Lech, port the improvement of resilience. Elbe, Mulde, Danube and Rhine were analysed on the district level. The potential resilience in- CEDIM’s Near Real-Time FDA activities aim dicator is supplemented with information on the to understand the evolution of disasters and number of people affected by evacuations per to rapidly assess their impact even if informa- district and the length and type of transporta- tion may be scarce or unclear. This requires tion disruptions as two measures of the flood new methods and tools. An operational flood impact. Combined with the information on the analysis system for large scale flood events magnitude of the event (maximum return pe- in Germany is currently developed within the riod of discharge per district), an index is calcu- ongoing CEDIM research project on forensic lated that allows for a preliminary comparison of disaster analysis. Hence, the methodological the potential resilience of the different districts developments and implementation of the sys- and the observed flood impacts. These results tem are still in progress. The FDA activity on show a high potential resilience in the districts the June 2013 flood provided valuable experi- along the Bavarian Danube and Lech, high to ences and insights into data availability issues moderate potential resilience in districts along and the performance of data acquisition and the upper Rhine and Lower Elbe and moder- evaluation procedures under real conditions. ate to low potential resilience for districts along the Lower Rhine, Elbe and Mulde (Fig. 6). Even Numerical weather prediction models provided though the pattern is not entirely distinct, the reliable forecasts on rainfall amounts and spa- districts with a higher potential resilience index tial distribution with lead times of several days, seem to have suffered less impact in terms of thus the formation of a potentially exceptional institutions of required evacuation measures, hydro-meteorological event has been detected and duration of transportation disruptions (with at an early stage. In contrast, the decentral- exceptions such as Deggendorf where levee ized and limited availability of online measure- breaches led to massive evacuations). More in- ments of water levels and discharges via the depth studies on the degree of preparedness different federal state authorities poses a great and effectiveness of crisis management during challenge for the comprehensive acquisition of the 2013 floods in affected districts are needed local information on the flood situation in near to support the evaluation of factors and trends real time. These data are fundamental for the of (flood) resilience in Germany through further evaluation and classification of flood event se- research, and can ultimately help improve re- verity and spatial extent. silience. Further, the rapid availability of information Concluding Remarks and Outlook about inundation extent and depths is crucial for a data driven estimation of flood losses. In The June 2013 flood was driven by the combi- this regard, CEDIM established cooperation nation of extremes of different hydro-meteoro- with partners from science (Center for Satellite logical factors, most notably initial soil moisture Based Crisis Information, DLR) and consultan- and catchment wetness, precipitation and con- cies (JBA Risk Management) which provide currently responding sub-catchments. Overall, inundation extents based on satellite imagery the June 2013 flood turned out to be the most and inundation depths using hydraulic models severe flood event in Germany in terms of spa- respectively. The goal is to combine data from tial extent and magnitude since at least 1950. various sources and use the results as input for flood loss estimation models. The CEDIM The impact analyses focused on transport in- research project on Crowdsourcing for rapid terruption, evacuations and the evaluation in damage assessment works on tools for the terms of potential resilience. The preliminary evaluation of twitter messages, which repre- comparison of flood impacts characterized sent an additional real-time information source. Forensic Disaster Analysis 47

Concerning the reporting on ongoing events, References CEDIM FDA intends to supplement “traditional” event reporting with the publication of graphical Conradt, T., Roers, M., Schröter, K., Elmer, F., abstracts. These abstracts summarize the key Hoffmann, P., Koch, H., Hattermann, F.F. and findings of ongoing analyses in an intelligible Wechsung, F. (2013): Vergleich der Extrem- and easy to understand way, enable the quick hochwässer 2002 und 2013 im deutschen Teil presentation and communication of real-time des Elbegebiets und deren Abflusssimulation analyses of the event, and thus improve the durch SWIM-live. Comparison of the extreme usability of the added value for disaster man- floods of 2002 and 2013 in the German part agement. Graphical templates for rapid event of the Elbe River basin and their runoff simu- visualization are currently developed using the lation by SWIM-live. Hydrologie und Wasser- 2013 flood event as an example. bewirtschaftung 57, 241 – 245 (doi: 10.5675/ HyWa_2013,5_4). Follow-up questions to the Near Real-Time FDA activity are currently investigated within DWD 2013: Wetter und Klima - Deutscher Wet- the preparation of three scientific publications. terdienst -- Klimainfos, [online] Available from: http://www.dwd.de/bvbw/appmanager/bvbw/ These cover (1) the exceptionality of the dwdwwwDesktop?_nfpb=true&_pageLabel=_ June 2013 flood from a hydro-meteorological dwdwww_spezielle_nutzer_hobbymeteorolo- perspective, (2) the analysis of differential flood gen_klimainfos&T1960733121115346336525 impacts despite lack of comparable flood in- 4gsbDocumentPath=Content%2FOeffentlichk tensities in different regions using a resilience eit%2FWV%2FGWL%2F2013%2FMai%2FW indicator framework, and (3) a methodology for etterklassifikation.html (Accessed 29 October a data-based estimation of direct damage to 2013), 2013. residential buildings in near real time. Fekete, A. (2009): Validation of a social vulner- Core Science Team ability index in context to river-floods in Ger- many. Nat Hazards and Earth Syst Sci 9: 393 Kai Schröter, - 403. Florian Elmer, Heidi Kreibich, Khazai, B., Bessel, T., Möhrle, S., Dittrich, A., Bruno Merz Schröter, K., Mühr, B., Elmer, F., Kunz-Plapp, Section 5.4 Hydrology, GFZ T., Trieselmann, W., Kunz, N. (2013): CEDIM FDA-Report No. 2 Update 1, June Flood 2013 Bijan Khazai, Flood in Central Europe – Focus Germany, Tina Kunz-Plapp, Impact and Management: Information as of Geophysical Institute, KIT 20 June 2013: http://www.cedim.de/download/ FDA-Juni-Hochwasser-Bericht2-ENG.pdf. Tina Bessel, Institute of Economics, KIT Merz, B., F. Elmer, M. Kunz, B. Mühr, K. Schröter, and S. Uhlemann, 2014: The extreme Bernhard Mühr, flood in June 2013 in Germany. La Houille Michael Kunz, Blanche, 1, 5-10. DOI 10.1051/lhb/2014001 Institute for Metrology and Climate Research, KIT Schröter, K., Mühr, B., Elmer, F., Kunz-Plapp, T., Trieselmann, W. (2013): CEDIM FDA-Re- Stella Möhrle, port No. 1 Update 2, June Flood 2013 Flood Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technolo- in Central Europe – Focus Germany, Precondi- gies, KIT tions, Meteorology, Hydrology: Information as of 20 June 2013, http://www.cedim.de/down- André Dittrich, load/FDA_Juni_Hochwasser_Bericht1-ENG. Institute of Photogrammetry and Remote pdf. Sensing, KIT Uhlemann, S., Thieken, A. H. and Merz, B.: A Werner Trieselmann, consistent set of trans-basin floods in Germany Jochen Zschau, between 1952–2002, Hydrol Earth Syst Sci, Section 2.1 Physics of Earthquakes and 14(7), 1277–1295, doi:10.5194/hess-14-1277- Volcanoes, GFZ 2010, 2010. 48 Forensic Disaster Analysis

Juni-Flut in Mitteleuropa – Fokus Force griff auf In-situ- und Fernerkundungssen- Deutschland soren, das Internet und (soziale) Medien zurück und setzte von CEDIM entwickelte Werkzeuge Ab dem 31. Mai 2013 entwickelte sich ein zur schnellen Abschätzung ein. großräumiges Hochwasserereignis in Mit- teleuropa, welches vorwiegend Süd- und Zwei ereignisnahe Berichte wurden veröffent- Ostdeutschland sowie seine benachbarten licht: Der erste blickt auf die Vorbedingungen, Länder traf. Die extremen Ausmaße sind die die Meteorologie und Hydrologie sowie auf den Folge starker Niederschläge auf bereits gesät- Vergleich zu großen Hochwasserereignissen tigte Böden. Hinsichtlich der räumlichen Aus- aus der Vergangenheit (Schröter et al. 2013), dehnung und des Ausmaßes übertrifft das der zweite Bericht betrachtet die Auswirkungen diesjährige Hochwasser alle Hochwasserereig- und das Katastrophenmanagement (Khazai nisse in Deutschland seit 1950. et al. 2013), besonders im Hinblick auf eine indikatorbasierte Resilienz-Analyse in den be- Insbesondere im Einzugsgebiet der Donau und troffenen Gebieten. Die daraus resultierenden der Elbe waren Rekordpegelstände zu ver- Ergebnisse wurden in direktem Zusammen- zeichnen. Die Region flussabwärts der Saale hang zu den Informationen über die Gebiete war am stärksten betroffen. An der Donau in und Regionen gesetzt, die von Evakuierungs- Passau wurden die höchsten Überflutungs- maßnahmen betroffen waren. Der erste Bericht pegel seit dem Hochwasser im Jahre 1501 wurde am 4. Juni veröffentlicht und am 8. und gemessen. Zudem verursachten Deichbrüche 20. Juni aktualisiert. Der zweite Bericht wurde bei Deggendorf (Donau), Groß Rosenburg am 13. Juni veröffentlicht und am 27. Juni aktu- (Saale) und Fischbeck (Elbe) großflächige alisiert. Die während der FDA-Aktivität gesam- Überschwemmungen. melten Daten werden für weitere tiefergehende Analysen bezüglich der Hauptursachen für Das Hochwasser im Juni 2013 zeigt einmal die Entstehung des Hochwassers und dessen mehr, dass ein vollständiger Schutz vor Hoch- Auswirkungen verwendet. Drei wissenschaftli- wasser nicht möglich ist. Die Überschwem- che Veröffentlichungen sind in Vorbereitung: mungen verursachten schwere Schäden an Sie thematisieren die hydro-meteorologischen Gebäuden, Infrastruktur und Landwirtschaft. Besonderheiten des Hochwassers 2013 im Nach den ersten Schätzungen beläuft sich der Vergleich zu früheren großen Hochwasser- Gesamtschaden auf ungefähr 12 Milliarden ereignissen, sowie eine Methodik zur schnel- Euro. Dieser ist mit dem Schaden des Hoch- len, großflächigen Abschätzung von direkten wassers aus dem Jahr 2002 vergleichbar, Schäden an Wohngebäuden und Analysen welches bis dahin das teuerste Naturereignis hinsichtlich der Auswirkungen, Katastrophen- in Deutschland war. bewältigung und Resilienz in den betroffenen Gebieten. Teile der CEDIM-FDA Analysen sind Die CEDIM Forensic Disaster Analysis (FDA) in einem gemeinsamen Artikel mit dem Pots- Task Force beobachtete eingehend die Ent- dam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK) wicklung des diesjährigen Hochwassers bis hin veröffentlicht, in welchem die extremen Hoch- zu den Auswirkungen auf die Bevölkerung, den wasserereignisse 2002 und 2013 im Elbeein- Transport und die Wirtschaft. Informationen zugsgebiet in Deutschland verglichen werden wurden aus unterschiedlichen und verteilten (Conradt et al. 2013). Quellen gesammelt und ausgewertet. Die Task Disaster Management 49

Disaster Management

Post-Disaster Damage Mapping

Danijel Schorlemmer, Jochen Zschau

Introduction Aims/Objective

The Post-Disaster Damage Mapping is part The objective of the Global Dynamic Exposure of the Global Dynamic Exposure project. In project is to provide a high-resolution (on the this project we interpret and visualize crowd- building-by-building level) and dynamic (low sourced and open geographic data and provide latency) exposure model for the world. It will guidance to what is called the crowd in data col- build upon the Global Exposure Database for lection. Because of the immense number and the Global Earthquake Model (GED4GEM) and variety of buildings, exposure- and vulnerabili- augment it where crowd-sourced and open ty-related data cannot be compiled by a small data exist in high quality. As a showcase, we group. Furthermore, the dynamic aspect of risk, have derived exposure indicators based on the namely rapid urbanization, requires monitoring GEM Taxonomy 2.0 from OpenStreetMap data of exposure and vulnerability indicators, again for Berlin, Germany (see Fig. 1). The exposure a task that can only be achieved when distribut- and vulnerability indicators are derived from ing the work onto many shoulders. For the data geographic data (e. g. building footprint, land platform we use OpenStreetMap (www.open- use), building properties (e. g. type of building, streetmap.org) and additional open data. This occupancy), and semantic interpretation (e. g. project has just started but first results based regional types of architecture, cultural habits). on the already existing global OpenStreetMap As can be seen in figure 1, these indicators can dataset show the potential of this approach. be computed for many buildings if sufficient data exist in OpenStreetMap. Once a target area is fully captured in OpenStreetMap, fur-

Fig. 1: Exposure map of Berlin, Germany. (Left) Occupancy type per building derived from predominant land use, building properties, building occupancy types, and information about points of interest (shops, restaurants, day care, etc.). (Right) Estimated number of inhabitants per building derived from building footprint size and number of stories. Missing number of stories per building result in not-computed number of inhabitants, displayed as gray buildings. Data and basic map tiles © OpenStreetMap contributors. 50 Disaster Management

ther changes in the dataset indicate the change Project status of building stock or the process of urbanization. The project is in a proof-of-concept phase. We To keep up with the dynamic of crowd-sourced developed the basic infrastructure for database data collection, our system updates our Open- replication and for low-latency updates for the StreetMap replica database every 30 seconds. areas of Germany and Japan. The regional lim- After each update, indicators for affected build- itation is caused by the available computational ings will be newly computed to provide low-la- resources. We developed a proof-of-concept tency dynamic exposure data. computation for a set of exposure/vulnerability indicators. We also implemented a proof-of- This dynamic aspect of data collection is of in- concept post-disaster map for the Haiyan ty- terest in our parallel project, the Post-Disaster phoon destruction (see Fig. 2). Damage Mapping. Here, the so-called Humani- tarian OpenStreetMap Team (hot.openstreet- OpenBuildingMap map.org), a crowd-sourced post-disaster map- ping effort, is providing information about the We developed the OpenBuildingMap (www. status of buildings and roads in the aftermath of openbuildingmap.org) that overlays various a disaster. These data is retrieved mainly from building properties onto the regular map as aerial imagery but also from mappers on the provided by OpenStreetMap. This service aims ground. at stimulating mappers worldwide to capture building properties that are usually not visible Combining the exposure and vulnerability data in the generic maps. It also serves as a tool of buildings prior to a natural disaster with the for analysing data and their distribution, and for post-disaster damage status will provide a new identifying data errors. dataset for better understanding risk but also the societal impact of a catastrophe.

Fig. 2: Post-disaster damage map of the area of Tacloban, Philippines showing the impact of the Haiyan typhoon. The building stock data was collected during a pre-disaster action of the Humanitarian Open- StreetMap Team (HOT) when this area was identified as being likely hit by the typhoon. Further HOT ac- tions were mapping the damage status from post-disaster aerial imagery. Data and basic map tiles © OpenStreetMap contributors. Disaster Management 51

Building import for Cologne Outlook

Together with local mappers, we worked on As soon as computational resources become the import of building outlines and building oc- available, all maps will be extended to cover cupancy information. We created a translation the entire world. Fast computers will allow us table for all occupancy types in Cologne. This to also keep the exposure map updated on a table provides the respective tags in Open- minute-by-minute basis. The major task in the StreetMap for the data import but also the future will be the development of the software respective GEM Taxonomy tags for exposure platform that will allow us to introduce nu- assessment. The import is performed manually merous, locally dependent, interpretations of for data quality reasons and is still underway. OpenStreetMap data and open data in terms of exposure and vulnerability indicators. Besides OpenExposureMap the crowd-sourced data collection of Open- StreetMap, we will introduce a crowd-sourced As a proof-of-concept, we computed several interpretation of these data, hereby using the exposure indicators from OpenStreetMap “crowd” of earthquake engineers and scien- building data based on the GEM Taxonomy 2.0. tists. Motivating and guiding these two growing The occupancy type (see Fig. 1) is derived in a “crowds” will be the challenge for the next few 3-step approach. First the underlying land use years. is considered, then explicit building occupancy properties, and finally additional points of inter- Core Science Team est (shops, restaurants, etc.). From the building outlines, we computed the position of a building Thomas Beutin within a block; from the number of stories and Florian Fanselow size of the building footprint we estimated the Danijel Schorlemmer number of inhabitants. This exposure map is Jochen Zschau only infrequently updated with data from Open- Section 2.1 Physics of Earthquakes and StreetMap (no real-time map). Volcanoes, GFZ

Haiyan damage map

We created a proof-of-concept dynamic map displaying the damage status of buildings in the Philippines region hit by the Haiyan typhoon. These data were collected by volunteers of the Humanitarian OpenStreetMap Team from aerial imagery.

Post-Disaster Damage Mapping gionale Baustile) abgeleitet. Als Basis dient das OpenStreetMap Projekt (www.openstreetmap. Das Post-Disaster Damage Mapping baut auf org), zu dem abertausende freiwillige Helfer das Global Dynamic Exposure Projekt auf. In beitragen. Nach großen Naturkatastrophen diesem Projekt werden global Vulnerabilitäts- werden die Zerstörungen der Gebäude, der und Exposure-Indikatoren von Gebäuden durch Landschaft und des Verkehrsnetzes mit Hilfe Crowdsourcing gewonnen. Diese werden aus von Luftbildern von Freiwilligen erfasst und geographischen Daten (z. B. Gebäudegrund- kartiert. Die Kombination dieser Kartierungen riss), Gebäudeeigenschaften (z. B. Nutzung) mit der vorher berechneten Exposure eröffnet und semantischen Interpretationen (z. B. re- neue Details über die Zerstörungen. 52 Disaster Management Seismic Characterization of the Chelyabinsk Meteor’s Terminal Explosion

Sebastian Heimann, Álvaro González, Rongjiang Wang, Simone Cesca, Torsten Dahm

Introduction Shock wave and ground shaking

On 15 February 2013 at 03:20 UTC the ter- Strong atmospheric shock waves can be gen- minal explosion (airburst) of an exceptionally erated by explosive fragmentation of a meteor- large meteor in the region of Chelyabinsk, Rus- oid when the pressure caused by atmospheric sia, produced a powerful shock wave, which drag exceeds its internal strength (Edwards et caused unprecedented damage to people and al. 2008). The resulting explosion (airburst) is property. accompanied by a sudden increase in the me- teor luminosity. The acoustic wave produced According to official news reports, glass win- by the Chelyabinsk meteor‘s terminal explo- dows were shattered in over 7,300 buildings sion caused the damage around the explosion and falling debris hurt more than 1,600 peo- source and could be registered as an infra- ple. The explosion produced the strongest sound signal on a planetary scale (Le Pichon atmospheric infrasound signal ever recorded et al., 2013). It also generated Rayleigh waves (Le Pichon et al., 2013) and ground shaking which could be identified at seismic stations at comparable (at low frequencies) to that of an least 4,000 km away from the source. earthquake of magnitude Mw 4.8 (Heimann et al., 2013).

In GFZ Section 2.1 an ad-hoc working group A formed in the days after the event to analyse B the seismic signal of the Chelyabinsk meteor‘s explosion. This report is a short summary of the 55˚ C results of this work, which has been published Lake in (Heimann et al., 2013). Chebarkul D E

68% 90% 54.5˚ km F KBS 0 20 40 LVZ 60.5˚ 61˚ 61.5˚

ARU MUGIO Fig. 2: (from Heimann et al. 2013) Seismic source, 200 km terminal meteor trajectory, and distribution of shock- BRVK TIRR 1000 km wave damage. Star, our optimally fitting epicentre, with contours indicating the confidence regions (for KIV 4000 km ABKAR unconstrained origin time); pentagons, the most KKAR damaged population centres (Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs, 2013): (A) Chelyabinsk, (B) Kope- ysk, (C) Korkino, (D) Etkul’, (E) Yemanzhelinsk, and (F) Yuzhnouralsk. Lakes are shown in gray Fig. 1: (from Heimann et al. 2013) Examples of (after Lehner and Döll, 2004). The arrow depicts the waveform fits at different distances and azimuths terminal part of the approximate meteoroid ground around the meteor explosion. Triangles, seismic path. Past Korkino (black pentagon), the meteor stations used for the analysis. Black traces, ob- had its brightest flare (coincident with the seismic served seismograms. Gray traces, synthetic ones. explosion source), after which it faded abruptly and Star, explosion source. eventually vanished (thin trace). Disaster Management 53

Source inversion by full waveform fitting References

We adapted a full waveform fitting approach to Edwards, W. N., D. W. Eaton, and P. G. Brown determine the source parameters of the Chely- (2008). Seismic observations of meteors: Cou- abinsk seismic source, modelling it as a point- pling theory and observations, Rev. Geophys. like isotropic explosion and using broadband 46, RG4007, doi: 10.1029/2007RG000253. seismic recordings at epicentral distances be- tween 220 and about 4,100 km. The epicen- Le Pichon, A., L. Ceranna, C. Pilger, P. Mialle, tral location could be found to be at 54.88 N, D. Brown, P. Herry, and N. Brachet (2013). The 61.22 E with an accuracy of about 20-40 km 2013 Russian fireball largest ever detected by using seismic recordings only. The explosion CTBTO infrasound sensors, Geophys. Res. altitude could be determined to be at about 21- Lett. 40, 3732–3737, doi: 10.1002/grl.50619. 24 km by constraining the time of the explosion using an independent source (Yeomans, 2013). Yeomans, D. (2013). Fireball and Bolide Re- The moment magnitude of the explosion was ports, National Aeronautics and Space Admin- about Mw 3.6. When modelling the source with istration, http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/ (last an underground explosion, a much higher mo- accessed 15 June2013). ment magnitude of Mw 4.8 would be required to produce the observed ground shaking. Publication

Conclusions Heimann, S., González, Á., Wang, R., Cesca, S., Dahm, T., (2013), Seismic characterization The Chelyabinsk meteor was recorded in doz- of the Chelyabinsk meteor‘s terminal explo- ens of casual or surveillance videos, providing sion, Seismological Research Letters, Vol. 84, an exceptionally well documented example for No. 6, 1021-1025, doi: 10.1785/0220130042. such an explosion. Our results show that dis- tant seismic recordings agree remarkably well Core Science Team with local meteor observations, and herald the potential for characterizing future large mete- Sebastian Heimann ors with scarce direct data. That most of the Álvaro González seismic energy was released from a terminal Rongjiang Wang explosion highlights the danger posed by such Torsten Dahm phenomena and we hope that this study will Section 2.1 Physics of Earthquakes and help to increase public awareness. Volcanoes, GFZ

Simone Cesca Section 2.1 Physics of Earthquakes and Volcanoes, GFZ and Institute of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Potsdam

Seismische Betrachtung der Explosion des geregt wurden, welche noch in 4000 km Entfer- Chelyabinsk Meteors nung registriert werden konnten. Eine spontan gebildete Arbeitsgruppe in Sektion 2.1 am GFZ Am 15. Februar 2013, 03:20 UTC explodierte widmete sich in den Tagen nach dem Ereignis nahe der Stadt Tscheljabinsk ein Meteor und der Auswertung dieses außergewöhnlichen erzeugte dabei das stärkste Infraschallsignal seismischen Signals und die Ergebnisse wur- seit Beginn der Aufzeichnungen. Die Druck- den in Heimann et al. 2013 veröffentlicht. welle war derart stark, dass Rayleighwellen an- 54 Disaster Management Large-Scale Flood Risk Model for Germany

Daniela Falter, Kai Schröter, Dung-Viet Nguyen, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Yeshewatesfa Hundecha, Heidi Kreibich, Heiko Apel, Falko Theisselmann, Bruno Merz

Introduction Aims/Objective

Damage from floods has dramatically in- The project aims at developing a Regional creased during recent decades and flood risk Flood Model (RFM) for a spatially coherent is expected to rise continually in response to flood risk assessment based on continuous global change which is caused by climate long-term simulations covering the whole of change impacts, anthropogenic changes in riv- Germany. RFM consists of a chain of models er catchments as well as increasing vulnerabil- representing all relevant processes from flood ity. Regional flood risk assessment approaches generation to damage, see figure 1. The con- are needed for instance for national risk policy tinuous and coupled simulation of rainfall-run- developments, (re-) insurance industry and off processes, 1D hydrodynamic river network large-scale disaster management planning. simulation including representation of the dike However, large-scale coherent risk assess- system, 2D hydrodynamic simulation of hin- ment methods for areas in the order of several terland inundation and flood loss estimation at 10,000 km2 are still in its infancy. relatively high spatial resolution is a novel ap- proach to consistently analyse the large-scale picture of flood risk (Falter et al. 2013a submit- ted).

Fig. 1: Components and data requirements of the Regional Flood Model RFM. Disaster Management 55

Project status Core Science Team

The RFM is developed and applied to the Ger- Daniela Falter, man part of the Elbe catchment including around Kai Schröter, 2,700 km of river network and an area of 80,000 Dung-Viet Nguyen, km2. A proof of concept study with continuous Sergiy Vorogushyn, simulations over a period of 14 years (1990- Yeshewatesfa Hundecha, 2003) has been undertaken successfully. As Heidi Kreibich, uncertainties are introduced with each module Heiko Apel, along the model chain, results were evaluated, Falko Theisselmann, where possible, with observed data. Due to the Bruno Merz continuous simulation approach, no limitation Section 5.4 Hydrology, GFZ on event sets is necessary as usually proposed by other studies. Additionally, the creation of Publications hydrographs of possibly unrealistic shapes is not needed. The relatively high spatial resolu- Falter, D., Dung, N.V., Vorogushyn, S., tion of 100 m of the 2D-flood inundation model Schröter, Hundecha, Y., Kreibich, H., Apel, H., has the potential to provide adequate inunda- Theisselmann, F., Merz, B. (2013a) Continu- tion depths and extents for detailed flood loss ous, large-scale simulation model for flood risk estimations (Falter et al. 2013b). The compu- assessments: proof-of-concept, submitted to tational burden for continuous 1D-2D coupled Journal of Flood Risk Management. simulations has been partly relieved by imple- menting the efficient 2D flood propagation code Falter, D.; Vorogushyn, S.; Lhomme, J.; Apel, for the NVIDIA GPU environment (Vorogushyn H.; Gouldby, B.; Merz, B. (2013b): Hydrau- et al. 2013). The results are promising and lic model evaluation for large-scale flood risk indicate that future efforts should be directed assessments. Hydrological Processes, 27, 9, towards the refinement of the hydraulic model 1331-1340. set-up. Improved representations of overbank cross-sections and bankfull depth by using Vorogushyn, S., Dung, N.V., Falter, D., Apel, H. high resolution DEMs and terrestrial surveys (2013): Benchmarking of a 2D flood inundation have high potential to reduce the uncertainties model implemented in a GPU environment. In: in hydrodynamic simulations and thus further Klijn, F. and Schweckendiek, T. (eds.), Com- improve simulations of inundation depths and prehensive Flood Risk Management. Research loss estimates. for policy and practice. Proceedings of the 2nd European Conference on Flood Risk Manage- Outlook ment FLOODRisk2012, Rotterdam, The Neth- erlands, 19-23 November 2012, pp. 523-526, RFM, firstly applied to the Elbe catchment, can Taylor&Francis, Group, London, ISBN 978-0- be transferred to other large basins in Germany 415-62144-1. and elsewhere. RFM has the potential to pro- vide a spatially consistent, large-scale picture of flood risk and will as such provide an impor- tant tool for regional risk analyses and trans- boundary risk management and cooperation.

The coupled chain of hydrological and hydrau- lic simulation models provides the basis for fur- ther enhancement in view of Near Real-Time applications providing discharge and water level information for ongoing flood events. This area wide information is highly relevant for the developments concerning the rapid analysis of large-scale floods in Germany. 56 Disaster Management The Web Service „Wettergefahren-Frühwarnung“ (Weather Hazards – Early Warning)

Bernhard Mühr

Overview eral information on the nature of the extreme event, the intensity and the course. Typically, The internet service „ Wettergefahren-Früh- a short warning text supplemented by informa- warnung“ provides information on imminent tive forecast maps, indicate the affected areas or just occurring unusual or extreme weather and what they have to expect. These alerts are events worldwide; of particular interest are updated daily, in some cases and if necessary those weather events that are ruinous and as- several times daily. sociated with heavy losses. Permanent avail- ability, daily updated (warning) information, edi- Upon the occurrence and during the extreme torially enhanced reports of extreme or unusual weather event the information becomes more weather events that are enriched by images detailed, and sometimes preliminary analysis and measured values, are the hallmarks of the and assessments have been carried out al- internet project. ready. One to three days after the event a de- tailed editorial article finalizes the activities; the Routine operation started on 1 February 2004 articles contain the main findings of the event and has since been continuously maintained – and are enriched with data, maps, illustrations “Wettergefahren-Frühwarnung” will celebrate and figures. The handling and evaluation of ex- its 10th anniversary in February 2014. In 2007, treme weather events that are affecting other the “Wettergefahren-Frühwarnung” became continents is done in an analogous way. part of CEDIM. Several thousand page impres- sions a day and nearly daily Facebook activi- Comprehensive archive of extreme weather ties give proof of the success of this web portal. events

The weather warnings of „Wettergefahren- During the last 10 years, the internet project Frühwarnung“ „Wettergefahren-Frühwarnung“ was concerned with some 800 unusual or extreme weather It is neither the task of „Wettergefahren-Früh- events that occurred all over the world since warnung“ to issue detailed and minute-by-min- its beginning on 1 February 2004. All warnings, ute updated warnings for every county nor to special notes and detailed reports can be found pronounce codes of conduct. Current warnings in an ever-growing archive. This archive, with of thunderstorms in summer, of heat in sum- its comprehensive, consistent and high quality mer, of wind gusts, of impairment of visibility articles and reports, is unique, at least in the due to fog or slipperiness by snow or ice in win- German language area. The articles are pre- ter are also not part of „Wettergefahren-Früh- sented as a table and since 2009 a Google- warnung“; although all these events might be maps application is also available that can be loss-incurring, it’s the German (DWD) or other used to detect all the locations and areas with National Weather Services that are responsible various extreme weather events in a fast and for those warnings. convenient way.

The key aspect of „Wettergefahren-Frühwar- Automatically calculated forecasts (tables nung“ is extreme weather events, especially and maps) when they are associated with an extensive potential for damage. The main focus is on Eu- Daily point forecasts are calculated for some rope. 2800 German, European and non-European cities. The predicted weather parameters that Forecasts of both global and regional weather are derived from the models for individual cit- forecast models as well as the experience of ies are clearly arranged in tables for Germany, the responsible person on duty serve as a ba- Europe, and the other continents. The forecast sis for decision. Textual notes about forthcom- period is 4 days. If single forecast values are ing extraordinary events are made, usually a beyond the defined alarm thresholds, the cor- few days before their arrival and include gen- Disaster Management 57

Fig. 1: Screenshot of “Wettergefahren-Frühwarnung”: Article in new web design. Image Credit: http://www.wettergefahren-fruehwarnung.de responding warning level can be highlighted by values of temperature deviations, convection a colour backing. indices, wind at several levels, snow accumu- lation and much more. In addition to the tabular presentation for each continent, “Wettergefahren-Frühwarnung” pro- Additional information vides an alternative with a Google Maps ap- plication. The maps show all the cities whose The webpages of „Wettergefahren-Frühwar- forecast parameters meet the alert criteria ac- nung“ not only offer alerts or warnings reports, cording to their color-coded alert level. A click they also give all the necessary information to on the city gives the relevant information about evaluate extreme or unusual weather events. the warning parameters and the alert level re- This additional information includes e.g. wind spectively. and storm scales, national and international records of temperature, precipitation and other New methods of visualisation parameters as well as climatological data and maps. This information is constantly checked, In addition to daily monitoring and assessment expanded and updated. Special reports e.g. of global weather events since its beginning in about the extraordinary summer of 2003 in 2004, “Wettergefahren-Frühwarnung” also cre- Europe, the volcanic eruption of the Eyjafjalla- ates its own special maps and images. In recent jökull volcano or the nuclear power plant disas- years, increasingly complex codes have been ter at Fukushima complement the information. developed that now produce many hundreds of weather charts and forecast maps for the entire Real-Time Service/Forensic Disaster Analy- world every 6 hours. The combination of the sis“ maps and the well-known and popular Google Maps application allows a completely new and In case of a disaster, “Wettergefahren-Früh- convenient navigation. Allegedly threatened ar- warnung” comes up with early and precise in- eas or cities can be identified immediately. The formation on events and reliable weather fore- maps give information about rainfall, areas and casts, which are always available and updated 58 Disaster Management

Fig. 2: Screenshot of “Wettergefahren-Frühwarnung” - Comprehensive archive consisting of 800 reports about extreme weather events worldwide since 2004. Image Credit: http://www.wettergefahren-fruehwarnung.de

several times daily. “Wettergefahren-Frühwar- mer and even autumn 2012 the United States nung” gives advice and assists with articles suffered from a record breaking heat wave and and reports on extreme events. High-resolution a disastrous drought in most of the country; model data also serve as input data for other and by the end of the year, hurricane “Sandy” models (e. g. radioactivity dispersion modelling, had a tremendous impact on the eastern parts flood calculations), thus making it a quick and of the United States. In 2013 the major weath- uncomplicated cooperation between various er events were the unusual and extreme cold institutions of CEDIM. spell in March in many parts of Central Eu- rope, the Danube and Elbe flooding at the end In April 2010, the eruption of the Islandic Ey- of May and early June, heavy thunderstorms jafjallajökull volcano attracted attention; in with hailstones of historic size (14.1 cm in di- March and April 2011, the nuclear disaster in ameter) in Germany in July and August. Ad- Fukushima, Japan, dominated the headlines ditionally, in October, a tropical cyclone of the in May 2011 before an Icelandic volcano, the highest category 5 occurred in the Bay of Ben- Grimsvötn, again emphatically drew attention. gal and made landfall in India (“Phailin”). By And also the earthquake in eastern Turkey (Oc- the end of October the winter storm “Christian” tober 2011) led to an exemplary, easy, quick mainly affected the coastal areas of Denmark and result-oriented cooperation between differ- and Germany with wind speeds close to 200 ent actors operating at CEDIM, which resulted kph. In November another category 5 typhoon in a number of highly regarded reports. In 2012 devastated parts of the Philippines (“Haiyan”). super typhoon “Saola”, that made landfall in For both tropical cyclones a CEDIM FDA ac- Taiwan, required a FDA activity. In spring, sum- tivity was put into effect. On 6 December, the Disaster Management 59

Fig. 3: Screenshot of “Wettergefahren-Frühwarnung” - Additional maps and information, e.g. average sea surface temperature. Image Credit : http://www.wettergefahren-fruehwarnung.de intense winter storm “Xaver” threatened parts and other private weather services benefit from of Northern Germany and required a FDA ac- “Wettergefahren-Frühwarnung”. Some coop- tivity since Hamburg could have experienced a erations have been organized by now, others major storm surge. are on the way.

In most cases Wettergefahren-Frühwarnung Further Plans and Goals provides high-resolution forecast maps for many weather parameters within 1 to 2 days Ensemble forecasts which allows detailed and reliable predictions about the future weather conditions, wind di- Potential ensemble forecasts are desirable rection, rainfall, etc. in the affected areas. to improve the forecast skill and to provide a bandwidth of possible weather scenarios and In the case of an imminent extreme weather their damage. Depending on time and comput- event “Wettergefahren-Frühwarnung” plays an er resources, ensemble forecasts will be imple- important role in whether or not to put a CEDIM mented and calculated on a daily basis. FDA Alert into effect and provides preliminary data and information. Lots of interview inquiries New design and improved navigation by newspapers or radio and TV stations have to be handled and there is a close cooperation Each successful internet project requires not with the press offices of KIT Karlsruhe and GFZ only permanent availability and maintenance, Potsdam. but also must be characterized by high-quality content, a modern design and intuitive naviga- Cooperation with external companies tion. Other pillars of success are new products and new forms of presentation which should be The extensive information “Wettergefahren- introduced from time to time. Soon there will be Frühwarnung” offers, is used by all kinds of a relaunch of “Wettergefahren-Frühwarnung”, media, many scientific institutes in Germany featuring a new design. or other countries and insurance or tourism companies. In particular, they make use of the comprehensive information that is available in the archive on about 800 extreme weather events worldwide. Furthermore, the German 60 Disaster Management

Currently there is no English version of “Wet- Core Science Team tergefahren-Frühwarnung” available. Such a version would be desirable and could help very Bernhard Mühr much to increase attention outside Germany, Institute for Meteorology and Climate too. Research, KIT

Flyer/ Brochure Publications

On the Internet and at all kinds of events (con- www.wettergefahren-fruehwarnung.de ferences, etc.), there is generally a great in- www.vorhersagezentrale.de terest in the activities of weather hazard early warnings. Additional information material, available and distributed during events, could help to increase the awareness level consider- ably. Thus the creation of a flyer or a brochure appears very helpful and important but hasn’t been done so far.

Webservice Markenzeichen des Internet-Projektes. Alle “Wettergefahren-Frühwarnung” (Weather Warnungen, Informationen und ausführlichen Hazards - Early Warning) Analysen fließen in ein ständig wachsendes Archiv ein, das mittlerweile Berichte zu mehr Der Webservice “Wettergefahren-Frühwar- als 800 extremen Wetterereignissen weltweit nung” stellt Informationen zu bevorstehenden umfasst und zumindest im deutschsprachigen oder gerade auftretenden ungewöhnlichen Raum seinesgleichen sucht. Mehrere 1000 oder extremen Wetterereignissen weltweit zur Seitenzugriffe täglich und nahezu tägliche Verfügung. Von besonderem Interesse sind Facebook-Aktivitäten belegen den Erfolg des dabei die Ereignisse, die mit einem großen Projektes. Schadenspotential einhergehen. Das Haupt- augenmerk liegt auf den Wettervorgängen in Darüber hinaus ist “Wettergefahren-Frühwar- Mitteleuropa. Auch extreme Ereignisse wie nung” fester Bestandteil aller CEDIM FDA eine Hitzewelle in Australien oder ein hefti- (Forensic Disaster Analysis)- Aktivitäten vor, ger Monsun in Südostasien bleiben nicht un- während und nach einer größeren Naturkatas- berücksichtigt. Der Routinebetrieb begann am trophe. Die Informationen werden als Text, in 1. Februar 2004 und wurde seitdem kontinuier- Form eigener Abbildungen und Daten bereit- lich aufrechterhalten. gestellt und gehen in alle CEDIM-Berichte ein. Auch Online- und Print-Medien, Nachrichten- Ständige Verfügbarkeit, tägliche Aktualisierung agenturen, Hörfunk- und Fernsehanstalten, der (Warn-)Informationen, redaktionell auf- Versicherungen und andere nutzen die darge- bereitete und mit Fotos, Abbildungen und botenen Informationen intensiv. Messdaten angereicherte Artikel sind die Disaster Management 61 Extreme Weather Events Analysed by “Wettergefahren- Frühwarnung” (Weather Hazards - Early Warning)

Very Intense Winter Storm “Christian” South Western North Sea to Central Baltic Sea

Bernhard Mühr, Daniel Köbele

Introduction England, the North Sea and the Kattegat into south-eastern Sweden; on 29 October it could Intense winter storms are common in north- be analysed over north-western Russia. Within western Europe as well as in parts of central only 3 days the low travelled 5,000 kilometres Europe in autumn and winter each year. Some from Newfoundland all the way into the south- of them are responsible for significant damage ern Barents Sea. “Christian’s” small but very and loss and claim fatalities. intense storm area affected southern England, the southern North Sea, northern France, the During 28 October 2013 one of the strongest Netherlands, the very north of Germany, south- winter storms ever observed crossed south- ern and eastern Denmark and south-eastern ern England, the southern North Sea, parts of Sweden. The evolution of “Christian” was not the Netherlands, northern Germany, Denmark that of a classical polar front cyclone (theory of and southern Sweden. The winter storm was Bjerknes), but corresponded to the conceptual named “Christian”; storm gust speeds exceed- model of a Shapiro-Keyser cyclone. Most likely ed 150 kph in a narrow corridor of roughly 200 this low pressure system was associated with km in width. In Denmark a new all-time wind a so-called “sting-jet”, which made hurricane gust record was set: 193 kph at Kegnaes Fyr. force wind gusts of well over 150 kph possible. Nearly all of the forecast models were far from predicting wind gusts of nearly 200 kph and Detailed information on the theories of a Shap- due to the relatively small extent of the area iro-Keyser-cyclogenesis and the evolution and with damaging winds a FDA activity was not put the impact of a sting-jet can be found in the ar- into effect. ticle on

Evolution of winter storm Christian http://www.wettergefahren-fruehwarnung.de/ Ereignis/20131031_e.html At the beginning of the last third of October 2013 the large-scale circulation pattern still was clas- Extreme wind gusts and new wind records sified as meridional, but from 25 October on- wards the circulation changed and culminated On 28 October 2013, 06 UTC, “Christian” was in a strong westerly flow that propagated from located over south-eastern England and had the north western Atlantic Ocean eastward and a central pressure of 976 hPa. In the morn- finally extended over western and central Eu- ing hours, hurricane-force wind gusts occurred rope. At the northern edge of the forming frontal around the English Channel in southern Eng- zone, “Burkhard” became the central low pres- land and northern France (Needles (Isle of sure system with its centre around Iceland. On Wight) 159 kph; Cap Griz Nez 147 kph), and the western side of “Burkhard” polar air mass- even further inland at Heathrow 113 kph. At 12 es were forced towards the south and thus the UTC, the low pressure system had its centre horizontal temperature contrasts intensified over the German Bight and a centre pressure rapidly generating a well-defined frontal zone. of 967 hPa, which was the lowest in the life cy- cle of “Christian”. From the late morning hours A shallow low pressure system called “Christian” until the evening, the sting-jet developed and and originating in the waters around Newfound- brought violent wind gusts with speeds ex- land approached the hyper baroclinic zone. ceeding 150 kph. In the Netherlands the wind With a strong pressure drop near the surface, blew strongest on the West Frisian Isles, where “Christian” moved towards Europe and finally Vlieland took a wind gust of 152 kph. With fur- grew into an intense winter low on 28 October. ther intensifying the storm reached the East Fri- “Christian” moved with its centre across central sian Islands, towards evening the North Frisian 62 Disaster Management

Islands and Schleswig-Holstein. The strongest Loss and Damage gust in the monitoring network of the German “Christian” was one of the most powerful winter Weather Service (DWD) was observed at storms in recent years and claimed at least 14 St. Peter-Ording at the North Sea coast of deaths. Severe storm damage, many uprooted Schleswig-Holstein: 172 kph. In St. Peter-Ord- trees and power outages occurred, mainly in ings history it has never been so windy before. Great Britain, northern France, northern Ger- Private weather stations recorded wind gusts many, Denmark, southern Sweden, Estonia of even 191 kph on Helgoland and Borkum. and Latvia. Railway traffic was partially dis- And Hamburg airport got hurricane force wind rupted also in Hamburg, where the train service gusts of 119 kph. was very limited after the storm. At London’s Heathrow airport more than 100 flights were In the early evening ”Christian” entered the cancelled. south and east of Denmark and caused an extreme wind gust of 193 kph at Kegnaes Fyr Some official wind recordings of 28 October which set a new all-time national wind record 2013: for Denmark. At Copenhagen the top winds were 128 kph. The strongest wind gust ever recorded in the DWD monitoring network along German coasts was 184 kph, when winter storm “Anatol” devastated Denmark and north- ern Germany on 3 December 1999.

Vilsandi (EST) 193 kph Needles (Isle of Wight) (GB) 152 kph

Kegnæs Fyr (DK) 181 kph Vlieland (NL) 147 kph

Røsnæs Fyr (DK) 169 kph Cap Griz Nez (F) 130 kph

St. Peter-Ording (D) 172 kph Halmstadt Swedish Air Force (S) 126 kph

Kiel-Leuchtturm (D) 169 kph Boulogne sur Mer (F) 124 kph

Glücksburg-Meierwik (D) 159 kph Southampton (GB) 120 kph Disaster Management 63

Fig. 1: Satellite Image (RGB airmasses), 28 October 2013, 12 UTC. Image Credit: Eumetsat

Wintersturm “Christian”, Süd-West Nord- rie, der seit dem “Great Storm of 1987” rund um see bis Zentral Ostsee den Ärmelkanal nachgegangen wird.

Winterstürme und Orkane sind besonders im Die maximalen Böen erreichten in Deutschland Nordwesten Europas und im nördlichen Mit- an den offiziellen Stationen des Messnetzes teleuropa von Oktober bis März nichts Un- des Deutschen Wetterdienstes Geschwindig- gewöhnliches. Sie richten immer wieder große keiten bis 172 km/h in St. Peter-Ording an der Schäden an Gebäuden und Infrastruktur an schleswig-holsteinischen Nordseeküste; dort und fordern Todesopfer. war es seit Beginn der Messungen noch nie so windig. Einen neuen Allzeit-Landesrekord Während des 28. Oktober 2013 überquerte für Dänemark stellte die Station Kegnæs Fyr das Tiefdruckgebiet „Christian“ Teile Nord- auf, wo der Orkan in Böen mit 193 km/h tobte. west- und Mitteleuropas. Es war mit einem Von Süd-England bis Südschweden kam es flächenmäßig zwar kleinen aber überaus in- zu massiven Sturmschäden, teilweisen Strom- tensiven Starkwindfeld verbunden, in dem die ausfällen und erheblichen Behinderungen im Windgeschwindigkeiten in Böen mehr als 150 Flug- und Eisenbahnverkehr. Durch „Christian“ km/h erreichten. Böen dieser Größenordnung verloren mindestens 14 Menschen ihr Leben. waren von fast allen Wettervorhersagemodel- len nicht progostiziert worden und allein aus Weitere und ausführliche Informationen zum dem Bodendruckgradienten lassen sich solch Orkantief „Christian“ sowie zur Theorie des hohe Windgeschwindigkeiten nicht erklären. „sting-jets“ gibt der Artikel auf Wettergefahren- Höchstwahrscheinlich bildete das Orkantief Frühwarnung: http://www.wettergefahren-frue- einen so genannten “sting jet” aus, eine Theo- hwarnung.de/Ereignis/20131031_e.html. 64 Disaster Management

Severe Thunderstorms and Large Hail in Central Europe – 4-7 August 2013

Bernhard Mühr

Overview labilized the troposphere triggering widespread deep convection. Violent storms raged in early August 2013 across western and central Europe, produc- The prelude to the multi-day storm situation ing severe damage by hail, storm and heavy was made by a MCS that organized itself over rains with flooding. Particularly affected were northern Switzerland and propagated across parts of France and the south-eastern half of southern Baden-Württemberg, the Swabian Germany. In Baden-Wuerttemberg a hailstone and Franconian Alb to the Czech Republic. In with a diameter of 14.1 cm was found near Un- Sigmaringen 30 people were injured by strong dingen on the Swabian Alb; in central France wind gusts in a camp of tents. hailstones reached 11 cm. The thunderstorms were accompanied by locally gale-force winds. On 5 August heavy thunderstorms developed over central France, causing hail with diame- Evolution ters of 7 cm in Puy-de-Dome. Vichy reported wind gusts of 135 kph, in Lurcy-Lévis peak From 4 to 7 August 2013 the conditions over gusts reached 149 kph. western and central Europe were very fa- vourable for the development of severe thun- Thunderstorms that developed over the Vosges derstorms in terms of mesoscale convective mountains on 6 August organized into a squall systems (MCS) and supercell storms. Small line that moved from the southern Palatinate surface low pressure systems formed along a and the middle Upper Rhine Valley across the quasi-stationary cold front; ahead of the front south of Hesse, Baden-Wuerttemberg and Ba- and in the elongated trough convergence lines varia towards Eastern Germany and into the emerged and upper level short wave troughs Czech Republic. The passage of the squall

Fig. 1: A thunderstorm approached Karlsruhe on 6 August 2013, 16:19 CEST, and brought wind gusts of up to 111 kph. Image Credit: Bernhard Mühr Disaster Management 65 line was associated with hurricane force wind from western Germany across Luxembourg gusts. The weather station on top of the Was- and France into Spain, the thunderstorm activ- serkuppe (Hesse) measured a wind gust of 140 ity was very subdued. The focus was in south- kph; gale force winds of 119 kph occurred on eastern France, where thunderstorm complex- the Weinbiet (Palatinate), Rheinstetten near es again brought 5 cm hail. Towards evening Karlsruhe reported gusts of 111 kph. the storm widened into southern Switzerland and into the Piedmont, but major damage didn’t In the afternoon of 6 August 2013 a huge super- occur. cell thunderstorm formed over the Black Forest and moved north-eastwards along the northern The hail events of July and August 2013 in edge of the Swabian Alb. This supercell fol- Germany caused tremendous damage and be- lowed by further intense storms produced 8 cm came a Billion Euro weather disaster. hailstones near Balingen and Bernloch. Around 15:40 CEST in Undingen, south of Reutlingen, Core Science Team hailstones had diameters of up to 12 cm with the largest having a diameter of an inconceiv- Bernhard Mühr able 14.1 cm. Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research, KIT Heavy thunderstorms also affected central France, where Mont Verdun in the Loire De- Publications partment experienced 11 cm hail, the country’s largest since 25 May 2009. B.Mühr, D.Köbele: Heftige Gewitter - West-/ Mitteleuropa, http://www.wettergefahren-frue- On 7 August the strongest storms shifted slow- hwarnung.de/Ereignis/20130808_e.html. ly eastward. Along the cold front that stretched

Heftige Gewitter und Hagel in Mitteleuropa, Deutschlands. In der Nähe von Undingen 4.-7. August 2013 auf der Schwäbischen Alb fiel ein Hagelkorn mit einem Durchmesser von 14.1 cm; es war Heftige Gewitter suchten Anfang August 2013 der größte jemals in Deutschland gefundene Teile West- und Mitteleuropas heim und verur- Hagelstein. In Zentralfrankreich erreichte die sachten schwere Schäden durch Riesenhagel, Hagelkörner Durchmesser bis zu 11 cm. Die Orkanböen und Starkregen mit Überschwem- Hagelereignisse von Juli und vom August 2013 mungen. Besonders betroffen waren einige verursachten in Deutschland einen Schaden in Landesteile Frankreichs sowie die Südosthälfte Milliardenhöhe.

Record Heat, Severe Thunderstorms and Large Hail in Central Europe - 26-30 July 2013

Bernhard Mühr

Overview cho that developed over France and had wind gusts of up to 165 kph. In northern and south- An extreme heat wave with maximum tempera- ern Germany supercell thunderstorms brought tures much above 35 °C affected large parts of heavy damage from large hail with a diameter central Europe towards the end of July 2013. In of up to 12 cm in Sehnde in Lower Saxony and Rheinfelden (Baden-Wuerttemberg), the ther- up to 10 cm in Reutlingen close to the Swabian mometer was at 38.6 °C: the European ‘leader’ Alb. Considering the long term central Europe- was Banja Luca in Bosnia and Herzegovina an weather conditions, the hailstones were ex- with 41.6 °C. The heat was followed by a dere- ceptionally large. The diameters are at the top 66 Disaster Management

of the list of maximum hail sizes ever observed prevented the development of showers and in Germany. thunderstorms. The hot air close to the ground was mostly too dry to permit deep moist con- Evolution vection. Over western Europe however, on 25 July severe thunderstorms had already aris- As of 25 July, a massive warm air advection en in the transition region between the moist began over south-western Europe. The 20 °C subtropical airmass and the cooler air from the isotherm in the 850 hPa level (about 1,500 Atlantic. The series of thunderstorms began in m above ground) advanced into the south of the night 25/26 July as in the lee of the west- France and northern Italy. During 26 and 27 July ern Pyrenees just off the south-western French the extremely warm air entered southern and Atlantic coast over the Bay of Biscay where an central Germany. The profile of the Stuttgart organized thunderstorm complex developed. In radiosonde showed an impressive temperature western France wind gusts up to 115 kph were of 24.4 °C in the 850 hPa-level – the highest recorded; at Saint-Sulpice-et-Cameyrac they value since 20 August 2012 (25.2 °C). reached 101 kph. Fleury-les-Aubrais reported hail with 4 cm diameter. Until 27 July, the long wave trough remained quasi-stationary over the eastern Atlantic off An even bigger and more intense storm system the European coast and increased its am- occurred the following night, 26/27 July, over plitude to the south. Embedded short wave France. This system grew into a mesoscale troughs influenced only western Europe. Fur- convective complex (MCC) and in the early ther to the east, massive warm air advection morning hours of 27 July the storm arrived in supported a broad high pressure ridge over the Belgium and in the very west of Germany. Due European continent that extended at its great- to a significant surface wind shear a squall line est extent up to the northern tip of Scandinavia. formed ahead of the MCC and embedded su- As of 28 July, several more prominent short- percell storms brought large hail. In the depart- wave troughs propagated north-eastwards on ment of Lot-et-Garonne hailstones with a diam- the eastern edge of the upper level long wave eter of 5-7 cm were observed. In France, the trough, allowing slightly cooler air from the At- squall line achieved the status of a Derecho (a lantic to enter the continent. The hottest air re- continuous squall line), stretching at least 400 tired to the eastern Alps and the nearby eastern km and causing widespread convective wind and south-eastern Europe. A fast moving short gusts of over 93 kph. Poitiers measured a hur- wave trough, that was located over Portugal on ricane force wind gust of 131 kph while in Pauil- 28 July, was then analysed over Slovakia on lac gusts even reached 165 kph. On 27 July the 30 July, finally displacing the subtropical hot air MCC and associated supercell storms caused from central Europe. significant damage from flooding and large amounts of hail in Liège, Belgium. Another long During the maximum heat, the high pressure lasting supercell storm travelled from North influence of high pressure over Central Europe Rhine Westphalia across Lower Saxony and Saxony-Anhalt almost to Berlin. Along its path hail was common. At Sehnde (Lower Saxony) hail occurred with diameters of up to 12 cm.

On 28 July a thunderstorm formed around 16 CEST ahead of an eastward propagating cold front over the central Black Forest. The storm grew into a supercell thunderstorm, gained fur- ther intensity on its way into a north easterly di- rection along the Swabian and Franconian Alb and above all produced very large hail. Hail- stones with diameters around 10 cm caused severe damage to buildings, cars, plants and agriculture mainly in the Tübingen/Reutlingen area south of Stuttgart.

Fig. 1: Radar image, 28 July 2013, 17 CEST. Image Credit: DWD (German Weather Service) Disaster Management 67

Core Science Team Publications

Bernhard Mühr B.Mühr, D.Köbele: Extreme Hitze/Heft- Institute for Meteorology and Climate ige Gewitter - West-/Mitteleuropa, http:// Research, KIT www.wettergefahren-fruehwarnung.de/ Ereignis/20130731_e.html.

Rekordhitze mit schweren Gewittern und eine umfangreiche Gewitterzone, die sich über Hagel in Mitteleuropa - 26.-30. Juli 2013 Frankreich entwickelte und mit Orkanböen bis 165 km/h verbunden war. Auch in Nord- und Eine extreme Hitzewelle mit Höchsttem- in Süddeutschland traten heftige Gewitter peraturen jenseits von 35 °C erfasste gegen auf; die Superzellen brachten außerordentlich Ende Juli 2013 große Teile Mitteleuropas. In großen Hagel mit Durchmessern bis zu 12 cm Rheinfelden (Baden-Württemberg) machte in Sehnde (Niedersachsen) und bis zu 10 cm in das Thermometer erst bei 38.5 °C Halt, den Reutlingen am Rande der Schwäbischen Alb. europäischen Hitzerekord stellte Banja Luca Der Großhagel führte zu schweren Schäden in Bosnien und Herzegowina mit 41.6 °C auf. und die Hagelkörner zählen zu den größten, Der Hitze folgte ein sogenanntes Derecho, die jemals in Deutschland beobachtet wurden.

F5/EF5 Tornado in Moore, Oklahoma

Bernhard Mühr

Fig. 1: Satellite image, 20 May 2013. Image Credit: NASA Earth Observatory 68 Disaster Management

Overview stability overlapped with sufficient vertical wind shear thus producing organized thunderstorms In mid-May 2013 violent thunderstorms oc- and several supercells with violent tornadoes. curred in the Midwest and the Great Plains of the United States. Heavy rain and wind gusts, A tornado of the highest category devastated large hail and tornadoes caused major dam- the densely populated Moore area in the im- age, primarily in a strip from northern Texas mediate vicinity of the capital of Oklahoma City. and Kansas to Illinois. Particularly affected was The tornado brought havoc around 15:00 local the State of Oklahoma, where an EF5 torna- time (22:00 CEST) and left a path of destruc- do made its way through Moore, a suburb of tion and widespread damage. The tornado Oklahoma City. At least 24 people died in the made touchdown for about 50 minutes and storms. shifted north-eastwards with a maximum diam- eter of approximately 2 kilometres and an aver- Evolution age speed of about 40 kph. The tornado didn’t even spare schools and hospitals. As of 18 May, the conditions over the Great Plains were favourable for the development of Core Science Team strong thunderstorms, including supercells and tornadoes. In an area between northern Texas Bernhard Mühr and South Dakota thunderstorms formed, ac- Institute for Meteorology and Climate companied by large hail and strong wind gusts; Research, KIT some tornadoes appeared in Kansas. On 19 May, the area with heaviest thunderstorms, Publications including an observed EF4 tornado over Okla- homa, slowly propagated eastward. The se- B.Mühr, D.Köbele: Tornados, heftige Gewitter vere weather situation culminated on 20 May, - USA, http://www.wettergefahren-fruehwar- when between northern Texas, Oklahoma and nung.de/Ereignis/20130521_e.html. Illinois the area of the largest atmospheric in-

F5/EF5 Tornado in Moore, Oklahoma Eine solche Tornadolage stellte sich auch im Mai 2013 ein; vom 18. bis zum 20. Mai waren Tornados treten in den Vereinigten Staaten die Bedingungen zur Bildung schwerer Ge- bevorzugt im Frühjahr auf. Vor allem in den witter über den Great Plains überaus günstig. Gebieten zwischen Mississippi und Rocky Einige entwickelten sich zu Superzellen und Mountains richten die kleinräumigen Wirbel- brachten Hagel, Sturmböen und Tornados her- stürme gelegentlich enorme Schäden an. Ver- vor. Die heftigsten Gewitter tobten insbeson- läuft ein Tornado der höchsten Kategorie und dere zwischen Nordtexas und Illinois. Dabei er- mit Geschwindigkeiten bis zu 500 km/h durch fasste ein Tornado der höchsten Kategorie die bewohntes Gebiet, bleibt kein Stein auf dem Ortschaft Moore, einen Vorort von Oklahoma anderen. City, und hinterließ dort eine Schneise der Ver- wüstung. Mindestens 24 Menschen kamen in den Trümmern ums Leben.

6th Coldest March on Record in Germany

Bernhard Mühr

Overview cold polar air led to a number of new records of minimum temperatures. Several low pressure Primarily the north, the east, and the central systems caused extensive snowfall and made parts of Germany witnessed an unusually cold the month one of the snowiest ever in parts of March in 2013. A north-easterly flow of very Germany. A monthly average temperature of Disaster Management 69

+0.2 °C corresponds to the 6th coldest March Europe, stretching from Greenland to the North since records began in 1881. Some weather Sea and to Scandinavia and low pressure in stations recorded the coldest March ever, e. g. the south from the Azores to the Mediterrane- at Cottbus since 1889, with a monthly average an, are favourable for a north-easterly flow pat- temperature of just -1.1 °C. tern across Central Europe. On the southern and south-eastern edge of the north European Evolution high pressure area very cold polar air from Arc- tic climes moved directly into Central Europe Several stable north-east weather patterns in and Germany. This large scale pressure pat- the second and last third of March were re- tern occurred several times in March 2013. sponsible for the exceptional cold. Very cold continental air of polar origin was forced into The absolute minimum temperature of the Central Europe and caused severe night frosts month was reached at Deutschneudorf-Brüder- and sometimes record cold minimum tempera- wiese in the Ore Mountains, when -21.3 °C tures especially in the north, centre and east was recorded. Quickborn in Schleswig-Hol- of Germany. High air pressure over northern stein measured -18.8 °C on the 12th and set a new March record. Wiesenburg, located west of Potsdam, registered an impressive 15 days with maximum temperatures below 0 °C.

March 2013 was not only exceptionally cold but also very snowy, especially in the north-eastern half of the country. Berlin observed a 20 cm snow pack, which was the highest in the last third of March since 1892. Lübeck-Blankensee observed a snow depth of 36 cm on 12 March. On the same day Hamburg airport saw 28 cm of snow, which was a new record for March and 18 cm at Frankfurt airport also set a new re- cord.

Core Science Team

Bernhard Mühr Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research, KIT

Fig. 1: Deviation of the monthly mean temperature Publications in March 2013 over Europe. Image Credit: Climate Prediction Center B.Mühr, D. Köbele: Ungewöhnlich kalter März und Aprilbeginn - Deutschland, http://www.wetter- gefahren-fruehwarnung.de/Ereignis/20130409_e. html.

6. Kältester März seit Beginn der Aufzeich- Ort trat Deutschneudorf-Brüderwiese im Erzge- nung in Deutschland birge mit -21.3 °C in Erscheinung. Mit einem deutschlandweiten Flächenmittel von +0.2 °C Der März 2013 verlief ungewöhnlich kalt in Mit- reiht sich der März 2013 auf Platz 6 der käl- teleuropa, besonders tiefe Temperaturen traten testen Märzmonate seit 1881 ein. im Norden, Osten und in der Mitte Deutschlands auf. Die häufige Zufuhr kontinentaler und kalter In Teilen Mitteleuropas kam es zudem zu inten- Luftmassen aus dem Nordosten führte zu zahl- siven Schneefällen und mancherorts erreichte reichen neuen Rekorden der Tiefsttemperatur, die Schneedecke Rekordhöhen. In Hamburg in Quickborn in Schleswig-Holstein beispiels- (28 cm) oder in Frankfurt/Main (18 cm) lag der weise wurden -18.8 °C registriert. Als kältester Schnee in einem März noch nie so hoch. 70 Vulnerability and Critical Infratructures

Vulnerability and Critical Infrastructures Risk Management Strategies in Logistics and Infrastructure Networks (RM-LOG)

Kay Mitusch, Tina Bessel, Li Zhang

Introduction possible catastrophe scenarios and developed new quantitative as well as qualitative models. Catastrophes, whether natural disasters or ter- rorist attacks, may have serious impacts on the For instance, we have applied a traffic model infrastructure and population. A complete infra- based on the open source project MATSim to structure failure could hinder the supply of nec- reproduce the traffic load of the German trunk essary goods and services and paralyse pro- road network on an average day. We have then duction. For instance, this was the case when quantified the different impacts on this network Rhine navigation was suspended in January in two catastrophe scenarios, namely a paral- 2011. Therefore, the ability to professionally lel breakdown of five motorway bridges and an handle and respond to such disasters is crucial extensive snow storm. Subsequently, we have for a highly networked economy, such as Ger- evaluated three cost-equivalent infrastructural many. In a collaborative project together with investment strategies, both from a private eco- other scientists and logistic experts, including nomic and from a societal perspective. To be practitioners, the Chair of Network Economics, specific, we analysed the investment strategies part of the Institute of Economics (ECON) at of (a) constructing new motorways, (b) expand- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), is in- ing existing motorways, and (c) expanding vestigating the feasibility of different risk man- motorways which were congested in our mod- agement strategies in transport and logistics elled scenarios. With regard to possible catas- systems. trophes resulting in a complete infrastructure failure, the creation of network redundancy in Aims/Objective form of alternative gateways or corridors is ad- visable. The aim of the project is to develop feasible risk management strategies for the public sector as Outlook well as for private companies. They should be enabled to develop a greater emergency pre- From the models thus developed, we will ex- paredness and better responses in cases of tract the most effective and cost-efficient risk possible catastrophes. The following issues management strategies as recommendations are explored in greater detail: for various stakeholders of transport and logis- tics systems, such as industrial and logistics • To what specific consequences could a ca- companies, infrastructure operators and gov- tastrophe lead to? ernment institutions. The strategies suggested • How should private companies design and will be published as part of the final project re- operate their logistics systems to be best port. equipped against catastrophes, both pre- ventively as well as reactively? Core Science Team • Which infrastructural investment strategies should and could the government take to Tina Bessel ensure a robust transportation system in Gernot Liedtke case of catastrophe? Tilman Matteis Kay Mitusch Project status Li Zhang Institute of Economics, KIT Various risk management strategies have been assessed by evaluating the impact of potential catastrophes on transport and logistics sys- tems. For this evaluation, we have constructed Vulnerability and Critical Infratructures 71

Publications Schröder, S., Zilske, M., Liedtke, G., Nagel, K. (2011): Der Transport-Service-Provider in Zhang, L., Schröder, S., Brock, M., Hayden, C. einem Multiagentenmodell, In: Wirtschafts- (2012): Assessment of the interaction between verkehr 2011, Modelle – Strukturen – Umset- congestion and carriers’ route decision: a case zung, Dortmund, Verlag Praxiswissen, 2011, study, Proc. 5th Int. Symposium on Transporta- ISBN-13: 978-3-86975-041-5. tion Network Reliability, Hong Kong, 2012. Liedtke, G., Friedrich H., Babani J. (2011): Scholz, A.B., Zhang, L., Gizzi, F., Jäkel, K. Identifikation von Tourtypen in Fahrzeugtage- (2012): Risk management in the European air büchern, In: Wirtschaftsverkehr 2011, Modelle freight system – An institutional economic ap- – Strukturen – Umsetzung, Dortmund, Verlag proach, Aviation Transport Research Society Praxiswissen, 2011, ISBN-13: 978-3-86975- World Conference, Tainan (Taiwan), 2012. 041-5.

Liedtke, G., Friedrich, H. (2012): Generation of Zhang, L., Matteis, T. (2011): Congestion Costs logistics networks in freight transportation mod- and Infrastructure Development: A Simulation els, In: Transportation, Springer, 2012, p. 1-17. Case Study, Infraday, Berlin, 2011.

Brock, M., Zhang, L., Hayden, C., Matteis, T., Gross, W. (2012): A Comparison of Regular and Disrupted Operations for Route Planning in Freight Transportation, Proc. Int. Disaster and Risk Conference, Davos, 2012, pp. 94-98.

Risikomanagement-Strategien in Logistik- Im Rahmen dieses Projektes wurden ver- und Infrastrukturnetzwerken (RM-LOG) schiedene Katastrophenszenarien entwi- ckelt und die Auswirkungen der potentiellen Katastrophenereignisse können einen erheb­ Katastrophen auf Transport- und Logistiksys- lichen Einfluss auf Infrastrukturen und die teme untersucht. Mithilfe der Open-Source- Bevölkerung eines Landes haben. Ein groß- Software MATSim wurde die Verkehrslast des flächiger Infrastrukturausfall könnte zu Be- deutschen Bundesfernstraßennetzes für einen hinderungen im Güterverkehr und zu Ver- durchschnittlichen Tag modelliert und die Aus- zögerungen in Produktionsabläufen führen. wirkungen von zwei Katastrophenszenarien Aus diesem Grund ist eine professionelle auf der Basis dieses Verkehrsnetzes bewertet. Handlungs- und Reaktionsfähigkeit gegenüber Des Weiteren wurden drei kostengleiche In- möglichen Katastrophen für eine eng vernetzte vestitionsstrategien in Infrastruktur analysiert. Wirtschaft von entscheidender Bedeutung. Für den Fall einer Katstrophe, welche zu ei- Der Lehrstuhl für Netzwerkökonomie am Insti- nem umfangreichen Infrastrukturausfall führen tut für Volkswirtschaftslehre (ECON) unter der könnte, ist es empfehlenswert Netzwerkredun- Leitung von Prof. Dr. Kay Mitusch untersucht danzen in Form von alternativen Korridoren zu in einem gemeinsamen Projekt mit anderen schaffen. Wissenschaftlern, Experten und Praktikern aus der Logistikwirtschaft die Realisierbarkeit Aus den im Projekt entwickelten Modellen verschiedener Risikomanagement-Strategien werden die effektivsten und kostengünstig- in Logistik- und Infrastrukturnetzen aus un- sten Risikomanagement-Strategien für ver- ternehmerischer und gesamtwirtschaftlicher schiedene Akteure im Transport- und Logis- Sicht. tikbereich abgeleitet. Die vorgeschlagenen Strategien werden im Projektendbericht veröf- fentlicht. 72 Vulnerability and Critical Infratructures Decision Support Methods in the Field of Critical Infrastructure Protection (DSM CIP): Overview

Thomas Münzberg, Stella Möhrle, Wolfgang Raskob

Introduction • the measurement of disruption impacts

The management of critical infrastructure (CI) to support disaster risk management and ana- disruptions includes all measures to predict lytical support (see CEDIM annual report 2012). (infrastructure) failures, to mitigate or minimize CI disruption consequences and to recover to The development of a CEDIM database and normal business. For all these fields of decision the implementation of CBR were continued making, the CEDIM project ‘Decision Support in the context of CEDIM’s Forensic Disaster Methods in the Field of Critical Infrastructure Analysis (FDA) activity in 2013 (see ‘Develop- Protection (DSM CIP)’ promotes the develop- ment of a CEDIM Database and Implementa- ment of supporting methods and analysis ap- tion of Case-based reasoning for analytical proaches for numerous CI related threats. In support – continuation from 2012’). The activi- 2013, the activities of this research field were ties on agent-based simulation for modelling CI expanded by newly funded projects including interdependencies have already started at the the primary responsibility for preparing and end of 2012 and were increased in 2013 (see hosting the ‘10th International Conference ’Modelling and Simulation of Critical Infrastruc- on Information Systems for Crisis Response tures using Agent-Based Approach’). Further, and Management’ (ISCRAM 2013) in Baden- research on measuring disruption impacts has Baden, Germany. been carried out. With the help of a multi-indi- cator approach, spatial vulnerabilities of differ- Aims/Objective ent regions which are affected by CI disruptions were assessed (see ‘Critical Infrastructure Dis- The long-term strategy aims at integrating vari- ruption, Decision Support Through Assessing ous decision support approaches in order to Spatial Vulnerabilities’). manage different threat scenarios in different CI sectors. Such a system should contain numer- In winter 2012/13, two new CIP research pro- ous decision support methods to assist deci- jects have been started. Both are financially sion makers from the private and governmental supported by the German national security re- sector. Therefore, CEDIM has and will intensify search framework. The SEAK project focuses its activity to draw up new projects with the fo- on simulation-based decision support to man- cus on different decision support methods. age food shortages (see ’The SEAK Project, Decision Support for Managing Disruptions in Project status Food Supply Chains’). The RIKOV project aims at facilitating the selection of security measures The DSM CIP research activities are based within the framework of terrorist threats against on the two former CEDIM projects ‘SIM- public rail transport systems.(see ‘The RIKOV KRIT’ (06/2009-12/2009) and ‘KRITISKONZ’ Project, Risks and Costs of Terrorist Threats (06/2010-12/2010) (for both projects see CE- against Public Rail Transport Systems’). DIM annual reports 2009 and 2010). Results of ‘SIMKRIT’ and ‘KRITISKONZ’ have fostered The ‘KritisF&E’ project started at the begin- current projects like ning of 2013. It is financially supported by the German Federal Office of Civil Protection and • the development of an integrated manage- Disaster Assistance (BBK; an office within the ment system that is applicable for all types remit of the Federal Ministry of the Interior) and of emergencies and at all levels of emer- a cooperation between the Cologne University gency management (‘Security2People’), of Applied Sciences and the Karlsruhe Institute • the development of a CEDIM database and of Technology. ‘KritisF&E’ provides a holistic the implementation of Case-based reaso- overview of current CIP research projects and ning (CBR), an in-depth analysis with respect to still exist- • the modelling of CI interdependencies ing research gaps (see ‘The KritisF&E Project, through agent-based simulation, and Review on Critical Infrastructure Protection re- Vulnerability and Critical Infratructures 73

Article / Project Name Funding Body

Development of a CEDIM Database and Im- Center for Disaster Management and Risk plementation of Case-based Reasoning for Reduction Technology (CEDIM) Analytical Support – Continuation From 2012

The RIKOV Project, Risks and Costs of Ter- German Federal Ministry of Education and rorist Threats against Public Rail Transport Research (BMBF), German National Security System Research Framework

The SEAK Project, Decision Support for German Federal Ministry of Education and Managing Disruptions in Food Supply Chains Research (BMBF), German National Security Research Framework

The KritisF&E Project, Review on Critical In- German Federal Office of Civil Protection and frastructure Protection related Research Pro- Disaster Assistance (BBK) jects

Modelling and Simulation of Critical Infrastruc- Helmholtz Association of German Research tures using an Agent-Based Approach Centers (HGF)

Critical Infrastructure Disruption: Decision Helmholtz Association of German Research Support Through Assessing Spatial Vulner- Centres (HGF) abilities

Table 1: Projects in the context of DSM CIP in 2013 and its funding bodies. lated Research Projects’). It has also strength- Outlook ened our partnership with end-users like the German Federal Office of Civil Protection and The individual DSM CIP activities will be con- Disaster Assistance (BBK). tinued and expanded if possible. The synergies between the current projects will be intensified, In addition to this variety of project activities with the aim of integrating single components mentioned above, CEDIM hosted the ‘10th into a decision support system in the field of International Conference on Information Sys- CIP. tems for Crisis Response and Management’ (ISCRAM 2013). Since 2004, ISCRAM invites Therefore, new projects focusing additional CI top researchers and practitioners working related threats and management as well as in the area of information systems and crisis other methods of decision support will continue management to strengthen the connection be- to be of great interest. tween science and end user so as to support better crisis planning, response, mitigation, re- Publications covery, and training. This year, the main topic was holistic crisis management. The ISCRAM Moehrle, S. (2013): Modeling of countermeas- 2013 took place in Baden-Baden, Germany. ures for large-scale disasters using High-level The Fraunhofer Institute of Optronics, System Petri Nets, Proceedings of the 10th International Technologies and Image Exploitation, chaired Conference on Information Systems for Crisis the conference. CEDIM representatives were Response and Management (ISCRAM 2013), responsible for the conference’s programme Baden-Baden 2013. and organisational chair. Moehrle, S. (2013) Towards a decision support system for disaster management, Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Confer- ence 2013 (ESREL 2013), Amsterdam, Nether- lands, 29. 9 – 2.10. 2013. 74 Vulnerability and Critical Infratructures

Methoden der Entscheidungsunterstützung Methoden des fallbasierten Schließens, der zum Schutz kritischer Infrastrukturen (DSM multikriteriellen Entscheidungsanalyse, der In- CIP) dikatoren-basierten Vulnerabilitätsanalyse und der agentenbasierten Simulation erforscht und Der Schutz Kritischer Infrastrukturen (KRITIS) weiterentwickelt. Diese Projekte spiegeln unter- umfasst sowohl die Bereiche Vorhersage, Vor- schiedlichste Bedrohungsszenarien wie terro- beugung und Minimierung von KRITIS-Aus- ristische Anschläge im öffentlichen Nahverkehr, fällen als auch die anschließende Wiederher- Lebensmittelengpässe oder langanhaltende stellung des Normalzustandes nach einem und großflächige Stromausfälle wider. Lang- Schadensereignis. Hierfür werden im Rahmen fristig sollen alle untersuchten methodischen der CEDIM-Aktivität „Entscheidungsunter- Ansätze zu einem umfassenden Entschei- stützung zum Schutz Kritischer Infrastrukturen dungsunterstützungssystem integriert werden. (DSM CIP)“ Methoden und Analyseansätze Ferner wurde im Jahr 2013 die weltweit renom- erforscht, die in unterschiedlichen KRITIS-Sek- mierteste Konferenz für Informationssysteme, toren Anwendung finden und sowohl private Krisenbewältigung und -management ISCRAM wie auch behördliche Entscheidungsträger 2013 in Baden-Baden federführend vorbereitet unterstützen. In mehreren Projekten werden und ausgerichtet.

DSM CIP: The RIKOV Project, Risks and Costs of Terrorist Threats Against Public Rail Transport Systems

Lijun Lin, Sascha Meng, Stella Möhrle

Introduction systems, (ii) the identification and prioritisation of suitable security measures considering cost Past terrorist attacks against public railway and socio-political aspects and (iii) the provi- transportation systems (PRTS) – as in Tokyo sion of decision support for the implementation (1995), Madrid (2004), London (2005) or Mum- of security measures and concepts. To achieve bai (2006) – have shown their vulnerability. these aims, interdependencies between risks, Such attacks often cause many casualties, con- security measures and costs are systematically siderable economic damage, and sometimes assessed, serving as the basis for decision- even unpredictable political consequences. making. This holistic approach considers terror- ist attack scenarios with intelligent and rational RIKOV intends to investigate – ideally for all adversaries and proactively acting public rail- critical infrastructures - to what extent a holistic way operators with a security concept for their risk management approach can enhance pro- system. Based on risk assessment, including tection of public railway transportation systems the analysis of historical events, the identifica- against terrorist attacks. The project is part of tion of plausible scenarios, and the selection of the national research programme Research for appropriate security measures, an innovative Civil Security - Security Economics and Secu- approach to enhance protection of public rail- rity Architecture, initiated and financed by the ways transportation systems will be provided. Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). The project started in November 2012 Project Status and will end in October 2015. An analysis of historical terrorist attacks Aims/Objective against PRTS was carried out. Highly vulner- able key elements of PRTS to terrorist attacks Research aims of RIKOV are (i) the analysis of were identified as well as weapons of attack, terrorist threats against critical infrastructure us- which are now or will be in future plausible and ing the example of public railway transportation relevant. The result is a matrix that shows all Vulnerability and Critical Infratructures 75

(target x weapon) - combinations that will be Core Science Team taken into account for further research. This matrix considers experiences and opinions Lijun Lin of experts (public security authorities, project Tim Müller partners) and decision-makers (PRTS-oper- Stella Möhrle ators and public authorities). In the next step, Wolfgang Raskob scenarios were identified to enable scenario- Thomas Münzberg based risk analysis and risk evaluation. Those Andreas Motzke scenarios will be stored in a structured way in Stefan Wandler a knowledge database, which also will contain Evgenia Deines historical events. Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies (IKET), KIT Further, existing literature on risk analysis methods was reviewed. Various different risk Sascha Meng analysis methods exist but none of them sat- Frank Schultmann isfactorily considers the key characteristic of Marcus Wiens terrorist attacks: intelligent adversaries. There- Institute for Industrial Production (IPP), KIT fore, a new risk analysis approach by using a risk function which takes threat, vulnerability, Publications and consequences into account, needs to be developed to obtain robust results for the deci- Lin, L., Brauner, F., Münzberg, T., Meng, S., sion-making process. Moehrle, S., Raskob, W. (2013): Prioritization of security measures against terrorist threats to The (target x weapon)-combinations resulted public rail transport systems using a scenario- in a list of possible security measures. Multic- based multi-criteria method and a knowledge riteria decision analysis (MCDA) will be used database. In 8th Security Research Confer- to support the decision-making process by ence, Berlin, September 17th – 19th. prioritising security measures. That method al- lows the evaluation of measures with respect to effectiveness, costs, and social, political, and legal aspects. It supports problem struc- turing by means of attribute trees and helps to understand the decision-making process. The RIKOV Projekt: Risiken und Kosten ter- development of a MCDA tool for the evaluation/ roristischer Bedrohungen des schienenge- prioritisation of security measures has started. bundenen öffentlichen­ Personenverkehrs

Outlook Das Verbundprojekt „RIKOV“ hat zum Ziel, einen umfassenden, ganzheitlichen Ansatz für RIKOV will be continued and aims at fulfilling das Risikomanagement und die strategische the objectives by broadening the range of re- Planung in kritischen Verkehrsnetzen zu ent- search methods. The knowledge database will wickeln. Die Institute des KIT beschäftigten be used within the framework of Case-based sich in dem Projekt schwerpunktmäßig mit reasoning (CBR), which is a methodology that der Entwicklung eines robusten transparenten utilizes similar historical attacks in order to Risikomanagementsystems. Hierzu werden draw conclusions about current scenarios. The Methoden des Wissensmanagement wie security measures thus obtained serve as input Wissensdatenbanken, fallbasierte Systeme, for the strategic decision support. An attribute szenariobasierte multikriterielle Entschei- tree will be defined, which contains all impor- dungsunterstützung und Indikatorenmodelle tant aspects (criteria) to evaluate individual se- untersucht. curity measures or sets of measures. Results of the risk analysis and decision support meth- odology will be validated by means of expert workshops. 76 Vulnerability and Critical Infratructures DSM CIP: The SEAK Project, Decision Support for Managing Disruptions in Food Supply Chains

Andreas Motzke, Frank Schätter

Introduction To ensure that the results of the project are useable, companies, agencies, and ministries Natural and man-made disasters such as are integrated within the entire project runtime. Hurricane Sandy in 2012 or the walk-out in Spain 2008 highlighted difficulties in providing Project Status food to the population. Particularly in the early phases of an event, uncertainties are over- To identify relevant incidents which lead to whelming such as sparse or lack of informa- food shortages or disruptions in the food tion about demand levels, available supply and supply chain, a literature review of historical resources, or the status of infrastructures. To events has been performed, resulting in a ta- respond to disruptions in the food supply chain, ble consisting of eight categories and 15 rel- actions by food and retail industries (maintain- evant events. Based on these results, relevant ing or resuming their services) as well as the decision-makers in charge of managing supply Emergency Management Authorities (EMA) chain disruptions and their consequences have are required to ensure the supply of goods to been identified. Several experts from public au- the population. thorities and from the private sector have been interviewed to obtain information related to food The SEAK project is part of the topic Securing supply shortages (e. g. scenario relevant as- Food and Food Supply Chains of the German pects, decision-makers in charge, distribution security research programme, initiated and fi- of responsibilities, possible countermeasures) nanced by the Federal Ministry of Education as well as further contacts, literature, and data. and Research (BMBF). SEAK project partners From the findings of the literature review and are the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), the results of the expert interviews, three narra- the Technical University of Darmstadt, and the tive threat scenarios have been developed that logistics consulting company 4flow. The project imply disruptions of the food supply chain and started on 1 January 2013 and will end on 31 can be seen as highly relevant incidents for the December 2015. purpose of SEAK. These three scenarios are (i) a heat wave, (ii) a drop-out of manpower, Aims/Objective and (iii) a failure of the IT system. For each narrative threat scenario a general description The main research aim of SEAK is the improve- has been developed. Additionally, relevant driv- ment in the security and reliability of the food ers and consequences for each scenario have supply in Germany, in particular if disturbances been identified during two workshops. Further- take place. This aim should be achieved by a more, relevant data have been collected (i.e. decision support framework which enables (i) from agencies, companies, literature) within a an increased understanding and transparency quantitative system analysis. Therefore, eco- of food supply in Germany, (ii) the analysis of nomic actors have been identified (producers, highly relevant scenarios implying disruptions logisticians, retailers) as well as physical loca- in the food supply chain, and (iii) an improved tions and the commodity flows of the actors. To decision support for crisis and risk manage- facilitate a common understanding within the ment. Therefore, scenario techniques, decision interdisciplinary project, a glossary containing support methods, and logistical and transport approximately 100 SEAK-related terms with simulation models are combined. SEAK fo- their definitions has been assembled. cuses on three appropriate threat scenarios which may lead to a food +shortage or a food Outlook supply chain disruption. In particular, the three selected scenarios operate as examples for the The first year of the SEAK project illustrates the proposed decision support framework by de- large synergies between the CEDIM institutes scribing consequences within the supply net- involved in critical infrastructure protection works, implications for the food supply, and the (CIP). To facilitate the response planning for information needs of the key players involved. food supply disruptions and to strengthen the Vulnerability and Critical Infratructures 77 coping capacities of all supply chain actors, the Andreas Motzke scenario description will be improved by iden- Thomas Münzberg tifying quantitative drivers and interdependen- Tim Müller cies between the drivers. The analysis and use Wolfgang Raskob of the results from logistical simulations and Evgenia Deines models will be an ongoing issue. Moreover, Lijun Lin current decision processes are investigated Stella Möhrle and implications for the decision support are Stefan Wandler derived. Therefore, uncertainties that will be Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies revealed by these scenarios are considered. (IKET), KIT Based on these requirements, a problem-ori- ented concept for a decision support framework Tilman Matteis will be developed. Finally, the framework will be Li Zhang tested and validated by a table-top exercise. Kay Mitusch Institute of Economics (ECON), KIT Core Science Team Publications Frank Schätter Frank Schultmann Münzberg, Th.; Berbner, U.; Comes, T.; Frie- Marcus Wiens drich, H.; Gross, W.; Pfohl, H.-C. & Schult- Institute for Industrial Production (IPP), KIT mann, F. (2013): Decision Support for Critical Infrastructure Disruptions: An Integrated Ap- proach to Secure Food Supply. In: Comes, T.; Fiedrich, F.; Fortier, S.; Geldermann, J. &rMül- ler, T. (eds.) 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (ISCRAM 2013), Baden-Baden.

SEAK Projekt: Entscheidungsunterstüt- greifende Krisenmanagement bei Störungen zung zur Bewältigung von Versorgungs- der Lebensmittelversorgung“) befasst sich engpässen deswegen mit der Beherrschung und Bewäl- tigung von Lebensmittelengpässen. Hierzu Die zuverlässige Versorgung der Bevölkerung wird ein simulations- und szenariobasierter mit Lebensmitteln ist eine zentrale Aufgabe - Ansatz zur Entscheidungsunterstützung ver- gerade bei langanhaltenden und weitflächigen folgt, mit dem einerseits Ausfälle und Störun- Großschadensereignissen. Ein wirkungsvolles gen in Lebensmittelwarenketten nachvollzogen Risiko- und Krisenmanagement trägt daher und andererseits die Ursachen und Wirkungen sowohl zur Vermeidung als auch zur Verrin- von Schadensereignissen abgebildet werden gerung der Auswirkungen eines Versorgungs- können. Simulationen und Modelle aus der engpasses bei und verknüpft das Vorgehen Logistik werden erstmals für das Management von Behörden und Unternehmen sinnvoll. Das von Versorgungsengpässen mit Methoden der durch das Bundesministerium für Bildung und Entscheidungsunterstützung und der Szena- Forschung (BMBF) im Rahmen des Nationalen riotechnik kombiniert. Diese Kombination bil- Sicherheitsforschungsprogramms geförderte det die Grundlage für einen Rahmen zur Ent- Projekt SEAK („Entscheidungsunterstützung scheidungsunterstützung, der die beteiligten zur Bewältigung von Versorgungsengpässen“; Akteure aus der Privatwirtschaft sowie der öf- das Akronym „SEAK“ rührt her vom ursprüngli- fentlichen Gefahrenabwehr vernetzt und ihnen chen Projekttitel: „Simulationsbasierte Ent- eine Möglichkeit zur gemeinsamen Reaktions- scheidungsunterstützung für das Akteursüber- planung bietet. 78 Vulnerability and Critical Infratructures DSM CIP: The KritisF&E Project, Review on Critical Infrastructure Protection Related Research Projects

Thomas Münzberg, Stefan Wandler, Evgenia Deines

Introduction Project status

Critical infrastructure protection (CIP) has From February to October 2013 the UNF and become an expanding topic in recent years. the IRG reviewed and evaluated research pro- Numerous research programmes at national, jects related to CIP. The work focused on cur- European and international levels have initi- rent and former work programmes in the period ated research projects related to predicting from 2005 to 2013 and with the key focus on and minimizing the consequences of critical national and European activities. In a second infrastructure disruptions. This has resulted in step, relevant and representative international an increased number of scientists interested in research projects related to CIP were added. CIP. Today, the CIP community has an impres- All project data were stored in a knowledge sively wide range of research disciplines and base. directions. The outcome of the research pro- vides policy-maker and practitioner alike with In order to illustrate a systematic overview, each proven scientific solutions and new thoughts. research activity was documented through Their benefit is clearly visible e. g. in technical a descriptive specific project summary. This improvements, more secure technologies or summary was derived from publicly available advanced sophisticated methods for risk and project documents. Each project summary pro- crisis management. However, there exists so vides a project description including e. g. pro- far no systematic review on the benefit of CIP- ject partners, methods thus developed, results, related research for the field of civil protection and a brief evaluation of the project’s benefits and disaster management. To fill this gap, the in civil protection and disaster management. German Federal Office of Civil Protection and Therefore, a comprehensive template was de- Disaster Assistance commissioned the project veloped and performance indicators were de- ‘Review of Critical Infrastructure Protection re- fined. As the target groups for this information lated Research Projects (KritisF&E)’. The pro- are the German ministries and their offices, the ject is conducted through cooperation between project summaries had to be prepared in the the Institute of Rescue Engineering and Dis- German language. aster Management (IRG) at the Cologne Uni- versity of Applied Sciences (lead contract) and Projects were additionally reviewed and briefly the Accident Consequence Group (UNF) at the evaluated regarding critical infrastructure and Karlsruhe Institute of Technology. disaster management related topics such as e. g. management, simulation and modelling, Aims/Objective vulnerability assessment, interdependency analysis or capacity building. The scientific The project ‘Review of Critical Infrastruc- methods used and developed within these re- ture Protection related Research Projects search projects were considered when devel- (KritisF&E)’ aims at providing an overview of oping the summary description of the project’s nationally and internationally funded CIP re- objectives and benefits. Hence, ‘KritisF&E’ search projects. This overview should illustrate made it possible to highlight the wide range of the individual project benefit in the disaster methods and approaches applied to individual management discourse and should extract cur- problems in the CIP research. rent research gaps. The results of ‘KritisF&E’ will assist in the definition of new topics in up- The role of UNF in ‘KritisF&E’ was on the one coming calls, reports on the state of the current hand to support the lead contractor in assuring research, and will help to identify potential syn- the scientific quality of the project and on the ergies in past and future research topics. other hand to perform the review and evalu- ation of research projects related to interde- pendence analyses, simulation and modelling. Therefore, UNF reviewed systematically all rel- evant work programmes on national and Euro- Vulnerability and Critical Infratructures 79 pean levels and documented more than 30 CIP er at the strategic level of CIP and civil protec- research projects. tion in Germany, and with the IRG as a reliable partner for application-orientated research in The resulting presentation of the ‘KritisF&E’ the field of disaster management. The extract- project is intended to take place at a workshop ed knowledge provides an ideal basis for the organized by the German Federal Office of Civ- CEDIM approach on DSM CIP and especially il Protection and Disaster Assistance in Bonn, its research direction on agent-based simula- Germany. tion and modelling.

Outlook Core Science Team:

It is under discussion whether the results of the Thomas Münzberg project in terms of the final report and the indi- Stefan Wandler vidual project summaries will be made available Evgenia Deines to the public. One possibility is the publication Wolfgang Raskob via the information centre for civil protection Tim Müller and disaster management (“Fachinformations- Stella Möhrle stelle”) at the German Federal Office of Civil Lijun Lin Protection and Disaster Assistance. Andreas Motzke Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies ‘KritisF&E’ strengthened our research network (IKET), KIT within the German Federal Office of Civil Pro- tection and Disaster Assistance as the end-us-

KritisF&E Projekt derartigen Überblick zu erarbeiten. In einer Kooperation zwischen dem Institut für Ret- In den letzten zehn Jahren wurde eine Vielzahl tungsingenieurwesen und Gefahrenabwehr an von Forschungsprojekten zum Schutz von Kri- der Fachhochschule Köln und der Forscher- tischen Infrastrukturen (KRITIS) durchgeführt. gruppe Unfallfolgen des Karlsruher Institut für Viele dieser Projekte wurden in Rahmen von Technologie wurden relevante Projekte auf nationalen und internationalen Forschungs- nationaler, Europäischer und internationaler programmen gefördert und haben einen Ebene systematisch erfasst, übersichtsartig wesentlichen Beitrag bspw. hinsichtlich des dokumentiert und nach ihrem Mehrwert im Be- technischen Fortschritts, verbesserter Sicher- völkerungsschutz evaluiert. heitstechnologien oder neuartiger Methoden des Risiko- und Krisenmanagements geleistet. Als Ergebnis des Projektes steht eine Studie Ein umfassender Überblick über die Projekte, zur Verfügung, die relevante Projekte zum die einen Mehrwert im Bevölkerungsschutz Schutz Kritischer Infrastrukturen standardisiert und insbesondere beim Schutz von Kritischen erfasst und ihren jeweiligen Mehrwert für den Infrastrukturen erreicht haben, existiert jedoch Bevölkerungsschutz beschreibt. Mit einem noch nicht. derartigen Überblick können der derzeitige Forschungsstand dargestellt, die Entwicklung Das vom Bundesamt für Bevölkerungsschutz zukünftiger Forschungsförderungen unter- und Katastrophenhilfe geförderte Projekt stützt und potentielle Synergien bisheriger For- ‚KritisF&E‘ hat nun erstmals versucht, einen schungsprojekte erkannt werden. 80 Vulnerability and Critical Infratructures DSM CIP: Modelling and Simulation of Critical Infrastructures Using an Agent-Based Approach

Evgenia Deines, Stefan Wandler

Introduction Aims/Objective

Critical infrastructures (CIs) are highly intercon- We aim at a better understanding and analysis nected. Hence, the disruption of one CI may of CI Interdependencies and their behaviour negatively affect other CIs. To protect CIs it in cases of large-scale and long-term power is necessary to study their interdependencies blackouts. This objective will be achieved by and the overall complex system behaviour. For developing an agent-based model representing this purpose we use an agent-based approach. the complex system of critical infrastructures. Agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS) Simulating the model will facilitate the analysis allows the analysis of complex systems com- of CIs, their impacts on each other and on the prised of individual, autonomous interacting entire system. Furthermore, the agent-based “agents”. Agents represent particular compo- model will be coupled with a Geographical In- nents of CIs. They have the decision-making formation System (GIS) resulting in visualiza- capability and can react to events triggered by tion of the cascading effects on the geographi- other agents which in turn influence the behav- cal space for better observation and monitoring iour of other agents. The most important char- of the power blackout propagation. acteristic of ABMS is the modelling flexibility, i.e. an agent-based model can be coupled with Project status other modelling methods such as system dy- namics or can be enhanced by adding decision All CIs interact with the energy system so that a support methods, e.g. MCDA (Multi-Criteria failure in the electrical power infrastructure can Decision Analysis). have serious impacts on other CIs. Therefore we have started with power grid modelling, fo- cused on the high- and medium-high-voltage

Public Health

Water Supply

Power Supply

Fig. 1: Interdependencies among the three sectors: public health, water supply and power supply. Vulnerability and Critical Infratructures 81 network. The power grid is a complex system The model will be continually developed and composed of many non-identical components improved by collecting real data and making connected to each other. It includes power gen- agents more intelligent and realistic, e.g. by eration, transmission and distribution facilities. adding MCDA components. Other critical in- The increased use of renewable energy sourc- frastructures such as water supply, health care es implies changes in the behaviour of energy systems and communication networks will be systems that will be especially considered in embedded in the model and coupled with each addition to conventional power generation. We other. In addition, simulation scenarios have adopt an agent-based framework for simulat- to be determined and created. Simulation re- ing and representing our model and use Java sults will include datasets, time series charts as object-oriented programming language for of changing parameters at runtime and the implementation. In the model, agents repre- visualization of model components on the geo- sent the components of the power grid such as graphical space within which agents interact. power plants, generators, transformers, sub- Simulating the collective behaviour of agents stations, etc. Individual behaviours and inter- will promote the understanding of CIs interde- nal organizations as well as collaboration be- pendencies. tween agents are specified. Information about agents, their attributes and structural relations Core Science Team are stored in the relational database which is accessed by the agent-based framework. The Stefan Wandler generic model is being continually developed Evgenia Deines and enhanced by adding new agents into the Wolfgang Raskob model and determining additional behavioural Tim Müller and decision-making rules to the agents. Thomas Münzberg Stella Möhrle Outlook Lijun Lin Andreas Motzke Initially, the model will be run with artificially Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies generated data within a virtual environment. (IKET), KIT

Agentenbasierte Simulation der Entschei- eine Entscheidungsunterstützung durch geeig- dungsunterstützung von interdependenten nete Tools wie zum Beispiel Multi-Criteria Deci- kritischen Infrastrukturen sion Analysis (MCDA), zur Abschwächung der Auswirkungen, bieten. Als zu Grunde liegen- Die kritischen Infrastrukturen bilden zusam- des Szenario wird von einem langanhaltenden men ein hoch komplexes miteinander verkop- und großflächigen Stromausfall ausgegangen. peltes System. Störungen oder sogar Ausfälle von einigen Komponenten einer kritischen In- Zurzeit wird ein generisches Modell des Strom- frastruktur können somit negative Auswirkun- netzes entwickelt, um die Verknüpfungen zu gen auf andere kritische Infrastrukturen haben. anderen kritischen Infrastrukturen untersuchen Um dieser Problematik zu begegnen nutzen wir zu können. Die Agenten repräsentieren in einen agentenbasierten Ansatz zur Entschei- diesem Fall die einzelnen Komponenten. Die dungsunterstützung. Die Agenten haben die Eigenschaften und strukturellen Beziehungen Fähigkeit mit anderen Agenten zu interagieren, werden direkt im agentenbasierten Framework um damit auf Ereignisse reagieren zu können. definiert bzw. über relationale Datenbanken eingelesen. Es wird angestrebt die Agenten mit Dies führt zur Entwicklung von Modellen, die mehr Fähigkeiten auszustatten und das Modell einerseits die Interdependenzen der kritischen sukzessive mit weiteren kritischen Infrastruk- Infrastrukturen widerspiegeln, als auch deren turen zu ergänzen. Verhaltensweisen in Notsituationen und damit 82 Vulnerability and Critical Infratructures DSM CIP: Critical Infrastructure Disruption, Decision Support Through Assessing Spatial Vulnerabilities

Thomas Münzberg

Introduction the understanding of potential impacts of such a decision. Critical Infrastructures (CIs) are facilities and organizations, which ensure the functionality of A general framework of assessing the vulner- essential services and goods. A disruption of a abilities of supply regions was developed. The CI may have severe impacts for society, econ- framework consists of eight steps: omy, and industry. To limit the consequences of CI disruptions, disaster management authori- • Analytical selection of criteria and attributes ties and CI providers aim at minimizing nega- to assess the vulnerability of the supply re- tive impacts as well as managing the effects gions to power outages; of CI disruption. To support this, spatial vulner- • Definition of a hierarchical criteria frame- ability analyses should provide an understand- work (see layer 1 of Fig. 1); ing of regional vulnerabilities arising from a CI • Definition of normalization functions; disruption. • Integration of weighting factors (see layer 2 of Fig. 1); Aims/Objective • Aggregation to prioritise supply regions; • Visualisation of results (see layer 4 of Fig. The assessment of vulnerabilities of different 1); regions regarding a CI disruption should facili- • Sensitivity analysis concerning changing tate the understanding of decision makers from weights and attribute values accompanied disaster management authorities and CI pro- by an update of the criteria framework, and viders of the consequences of CI disruptions. • Decision support by means of the assess- Such an assessment should provide a frame- ment. work to identify CIs at a local level, to consider the individual criticality of CIs, and to take the The eight steps (see Fig. 1) provide a clear CIs’ localization into account. The result should and well-structured framework to assess vul- facilitate the comparison of vulnerabilities of dif- nerabilities against power outages. It takes the ferent regions and illustrate the impact of single criticality of the CIs as well as the localization CIs on the vulnerability of a region. of CIs into account and illustrates the level of vulnerability of each supply region. It enables a Project status decision-maker to rank supply regions regard- ing the level of vulnerability and to support the The general framework for the spatial assess- planning of load reduction schedules. Hence, ment of vulnerabilities against a CI disruption the spatial vulnerability assessment for the load uses an indicator approach, which was first reduction problem bridges the gap between published by Münzberg, Müller, Möhrle, Comes, the interests of electricity grid providers (e. g. and Schultmann (2013) at the 10th Interna- ensuring grid stability) and the interests of dis- tional Conference on Information Systems for aster management authorities (e. g. protecting Crisis Response and Management’ (ISCRAM CIs from power outages). To ensure applicabili- 2013) in Baden-Baden, Germany. The assess- ty and end-user orientation, the framework was ment was performed for the problem of a load applied to the city of Mannheim in cooperation reduction which is an emergency procedure with the Mannheim Municipal Fire Department. that might be implemented in cases of elec- The framework is also adaptable to other kinds tricity grid instabilities. To keep the stability of of CI disruptions. electricity grids, some consumers are dropped from the electricity grid. This is achieved by de- Outlook coupling so-called ‘supply regions’ that reduces the grid’s load. If one supply region is selected To manage the effects of CI disruptions, the CIs for load reduction, decision-makers need to un- may maintain limited coping capacities. These derstand what kind of and how many CIs may capacities may buffer the negative effects and be affected by a power outage. This improves reduce the vulnerability for a limited period of Vulnerability and Critical Infratructures 83

Layer 1 Attributes and criteria to describe critical infrastructures Layer 2 Weights for attributes and criteria

Layer 3 Locations of critical Vulnerability Index infrastructures Low vulnerability . . . Layer 4 Supply regions e.g. of a district High vulnerability

Fig. 1: Layer illustration of the framework to assess spatial vulnerabilities against a CI disruption. time. Therefore, dynamic considerations of vul- Evgenia Deines nerability are needed. These considerations Stefan Wandler will be included in upcoming researches. As- Andreas Motzke sessing dynamic aspects of vulnerabilities may Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies allow analysis of the performances of coping (IKET), KIT strategies. This is a particularly interest aspect for forthcoming research activities. Publications

Core Science Team Münzberg, Th.; Mueller, T.; Möhrle, S.; Comes, T. & Schultmann, F. (2013): An Integrated Multi- Thomas Münzberg Criteria Approach on Vulnerability Analysis in Stella Möhrle the Context of Load Reduction. Proceedings of Wolfgang Raskob the 10th International Conference on Informa- Tim Müller tion Systems for Crisis Response and Manage- Lijun Lin ment (ISCRAM 2013), Baden-Baden 2013.

Unterbrechungen von kritischen Infrastruk- freien Stadt gegenüber einem KRITIS-Ausfall turen - Entscheidungsunterstützung durch messbar zu machen. Das Vorgehen für eine Vulnerabilitätsanalysen regionale Analyse von Vulnerabilitäten wurde zunächst anhand des Praxisproblems der Last- Fallen Kritische Infrastrukturen (KRITIS) aus, reduzierung - eine Notfallmaßnahme zur Stabi- stehen sowohl Betreiber als auch Behörden lisierung von Elektrizitätsnetzen - für Stromaus- und Organisationen mit Sicherheitsaufgaben fälle entwickelt. Hierdurch wird es möglich, vor der Herausforderung, die daraus resul- Versorgungsregionen hinsichtlich ihrer Vulne- tierenden Konsequenzen zu beherrschen und rabilität zu vergleichen und darzustellen, in- zu bewältigen. Die Analyse regionaler Vul- wieweit welche KRITIS-Einrichtung Einfluss nerabilitäten kann dabei helfen, die negativen auf die Vulnerabilität einer Versorgungsregion Wirkungen von KRITIS-Ausfällen zu verste- hat. Da die meisten KRITIS-Einrichtungen über hen und ihre Konsequenzen zu mindern. Ziel Bewältigungskapazitäten wie bspw. unterbre- derartiger Analysen ist es, durch ein systema- chungsfreie Notstromversorgungen für Strom- tisches Vorgehen eine Gewichtung der ver- ausfälle verfügen, besteht Forschungsbedarf schiedenen KRITIS-Sektoren und -Branchen bei der Berücksichtigung zeitlicher Entwick- zu ermöglichen und unter Berücksichtigung lungen. Die Einbindung dynamischer Effekte ihres Standortes die Vulnerabilität von einzel- in die Messung der Vulnerabilität spielt damit nen Regionen eines Kreises oder einer kreis- eine zentrale Rolle kommender Forschungen. 84 Global Earthquake Model

Global Earthquake Model

GEM Testing & Evaluation Center

Danijel Schorlemmer, Jochen Zschau

Introduction Project status

The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is devel- Seismicity Rate Testing oping the first homogeneous hazard and risk model for the entire globe. Such a model is as- For seismicity rate model testing, the T&E ef- sembled from data, known physical properties, fort uses existing CSEP testing capabilities. statistical descriptions of physical phenomena, We computed and analysed test results for and assumptions – often called ‘expert opin- the 3-month model experiment in California. ion’. Over the past decade, independent test- All seven models of this experiment forecast ing of seismic rate models became a stand- seismicity for the following 3-month period. We ard through the Collaboratory for the Study of identified the best operating model and pro- Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) and is further vided guidance on how to improve the models emphasized by the L’Aquila earthquake and its based on detailed residual analyses. legal aftermath. The Testing & Evaluation com- ponent of GEM is building on these develop- Also for the region of California, we tested the ments and taking the role of an independent Uniform California Earthquake Rupture fore- evaluator for the most important parts of GEM cast (UCERF2) and the forecast of the National by operating a dedicated Testing Center at Seismic Hazard Mapping Project (NSHMP) and GFZ. compared their performance with the suite of models of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Aims/Objective Models (RELM) project. The best-performing RELM model showed better performance than The T&E component works together with the UCERF2 and NSHMP for various testing peri- model builders to make GEM and its compo- ods, prospective as well as retrospective. The nents as testable as possible. It provides tools differences between the models became more and software systems for retrospective testing significant with longer testing periods (up to 40 to help improve the model during its develop- years retrospectively). ment stage, it tests pseudo-prospectively and prospectively many components of GEM, and We also developed a high-resolution global it works on testing high-impact assumptions of testing experiment that will cover various earth- GEM. The following components have been quake forecast models, in particular the seis- identified as primary targets for testing: micity rate models developed for GEM.

1. Seismicity rate models Ground Motion Testing 2. Develop a prototype testing chain for the OpenQuake system of GEM This experimental set-up for testing intensity 3. Implementing a ground-motion prediction prediction equations is implemented in the testing centre to test intensity and ground GEM Testing Center at GFZ Potsdam. In ad- motion prediction equations dition, further data sources like the USGS “Did 4. Developing prototype tests for hazard mo- You Feel It?” are introduced so that IPE tests del testing for almost any region on Earth can be conduct- 5. Collaborating with the Global Conse- ed in an automated fashion. quences Database component to cha- racterise the current and future dataset for We conducted a case study on almost 20 testing risk models ground-motion prediction equations (GMPE) 6. Setting up a testable hypothesis for testing for Japan. The results show that better pre- Mmax forming GMPEs exist than are currently used in seismic hazard assessment. Overall, the Global Earthquake Model 85 performance differences are less pronounced Core Science Team compared to the IPE experiment. Automatic testing of GMPEs poses serious problems be- Thomas Beutin cause data preparation can become arbitrarily Robert Clements complex and metadata about GMPEs are often Alvaro González improperly specified. Such tests will only be Max Schneider possible in collaboration with GMPE authors Danijel Schorlemmer and hazard modellers. Section 2.1 Physics of Earthquakes and Volcanoes, GFZ Maximum Magnitude Publications We showed in the previous year that maximum magnitude estimates cannot be tested within a Zechar, J. D., Schorlemmer, D., Werner, M. J., reasonable time frame. Even almost meaning- Gerstenberger, M. C., Rhoades, D. A., Jordan, less low-power results will need several centu- T. H. (2013): Regional Earthquake Likelihood ries of observations. This year we focused on Models I: First-Order Results, Bull. Seismol. assessing the possibilities of estimating maxi- Soc. Am., 103(2A), 787-798. mum magnitudes. We investigated estimates from seismicity catalogues, historic earthquake Holschneider, M., Zöller, G., Clements, R. A., catalogues, paleoseismic records, strain rates, Schorlemmer, D. (in revision): Can we test and geologic information such as fault length. for the maximum possible earthquake magni- We came to the conclusion that none of the tude?, J. Geophys. Res. methods mentioned can provide estimates of maximum magnitude without making assump- Schneider, M., Clements, R., Rhoades, D., tions that basically completely predetermine Schorlemmer, D. (submitted): Likelihood- and the results. Residuals-Based Evaluation of Medium-Term Earthquake Forecast Models for California. Hazard testing Mak, S., Clements, R., Schorlemmer, D. (sub- We convened a hazard testing workshop at the mitted): Evaluating Intensity Prediction Equa- USGS in Golden, Colorado. We are currently tions for Italy. setting up tests of the National Seismic Hazard Map (released 1996) for the US against the col- Schorlemmer, D., Clements, R., González, A. lection of earthquake shaking information for (2013): The Testability of Maximum Magnitude. the last 17 years. Invited talk at: JpGU Annual Meeting, 2013 May 21, Chiba, Japan. Outlook Schorlemmer, D., Schneider, M. (2013): Evalu- We will move from testing the components of ation of USGS Earthquake Forecast Models. seismic hazard (rates, IPEs, GMPEs) to testing Invited talk at: SSJ Annual Meeting, 2013 Oc- hazard and risk directly. The hazard test is out- tober 8, Yokohama, Japan. lined briefly above. For the risk test, please see the remarks in the section about Post-Disaster Damage Mapping.

‘GEM Testing & Evaluation Center’ hersage der durch Erdbeben hervorgerufenen Bodenbewegungen, die resultierenden Gefähr- Das Global Earthquake Model (GEM) entwickelt dungs- und Risikomodelle und ausgewählte das erste weltweit homogene Gefährdungs- weitreichende Annahmen, die in den Modellen und Risikomodel für Erdbeben. Innerhalb von verwendet werden. Dazu gehört das Konzept GEM arbeitet das Testing & Evaluation-Projekt der maximalen Magnitude von Beben in be- daran, die verschiedenen Bestandteile dieses stimmten Gebieten. Alle Tests werden im GEM Models zu testen. Zu den wichtigsten zählen Testing Center am GFZ-Potsdam durchgeführt. die Erdbebenratenmodelle, Modelle zur Vor- 86 Global Earthquake Model Social Vulnerability and Integrated Risk Project in GEM

Bijan Khazai, James Daniell, Christopher Power, Christopher Oberacker, Chris Burton

Introduction Aims/Objective

At the core of the Global Earthquake Model The goal of the project is to integrate Open (GEM) is the development of state-of-the-art Source software tools, spatially-enabled and modelling capabilities that can be used world- open databases, and indicators and indices wide for the assessment and communication of with GEM’s on-going activities on hazard and seismic risk. Holistic evaluation of seismic risk physical risk to address the differential suscep- in GEM centres on the development of tools, tibility of populations to the adverse impacts validated data and methods that draw from the of earthquake events in a holistic manner that GEM hazard and risk module on seismic haz- accounts for both physical risk and the social ard, exposure, predicted mortality and property circumstances at a given place. One of the loss, and from models of social vulnerability key outcomes of the project is development of and economic vulnerability. The Social Vulner- multiple comprehensive, spatially enabled da- ability and Integrated Risk Project is a two-year tabases for building indicators and indices of project which began in September 2012 and is social and economic vulnerability. These are a collaborative effort between the GEM Foun- scaled at the national level for the whole world, dation and CEDIM (KIT) with involvement from sub-national level for the Asia-Pacific region, the Willis Research Network. Bijan Khazai from and sub-municipal levels for Quezon City and KIT is leading the project, which is coordinated Kathmandu, based on open and publicly availa- by GEM’s Christopher Burton. There are sev- ble sources. The databases will be used for the eral PhD and masters students contributing to purpose of integrated risk assessments within the project from both institutions. the Integrated Risk Toolkit of the OpenQuake

Database Software Use Development Development Cases

National National (Global) (Shelter/Global)

Education

Sub-national Sub-national (Indirect Losses/ (Asia Pacific) Japan)

Kathmandu

Municipal Integrated Toolkit Risk (Japan/Portugal) (Urban Planning)

Sub-Municipal

(Quezon Data Collection/Harmonization/Analysis Quezon City City/Kathmandu) Indicator Construction/Calibration/Validation (Disaster Risk Management)

Fig 1: Overview of the different project components in the Social Vulnerability and Integrated Risk Project of GEM. Global Earthquake Model 87

Platform. In the GEM Social Vulnerability and vey of 440 studies and an in-depth analysis of Integrated Risk Project, a set of “Use Cases” 35 key references. Next, a series of workshops will demonstrate the development of particu- was held in which researchers working in social lar indicator frameworks which are tested and and economic vulnerability sciences developed validated (either statistically or through stake- a taxonomy for structuring the identified indica- holder interaction) for a set of defined contexts tors, and judged the applicability of each indi- (i. e., shelter needs, indirect loss potential, ur- cator to the social and economic vulnerability of ban growth, local-government preparedness populations based on a-priori knowledge and planning etc) (Fig. 1). the extant literature (Fig. 3).

Project Status In a second step, the factor analysis approach included examining the correlation structure At present the work completed includes the between the indicators and the use of a se- data collection, harmonization, construction, ries of Principal Component Analyses (PCA) and analysis of the country level (global cov- to reduce the variables and identify the main erage) portion of the socio-economic database underlying drivers of social and economic vul- that is sourced from free and publicly available nerability. Within this context, analyses were global data sources. The determination of the performed that investigated the completeness, most applicable indicators for social and eco- correlation structure, consistency and bias of nomic vulnerability assessment was accom- the data. The end result was the coupling of plished through a two-step approach using the expert and multivariate statistical methods expert opinion and factor analysis illustrated in for the formation of a parsimonious database figure 2. of 367 indicators from among 1,494 indica- tors representing 197 countries and sourced The expert opinion portion focused on identify- from 44 publicly available sources. The indi- ing indicators of social and economic vulnera- cators were structured and classified using a bility most in use in the literature through a sur- broad taxonomy of themes and sub-themes that includes characteristics of populations, economies, health, education, governance, and infrastructures. The selected indicators are highly amenable to socio-economic vulnerabil- ity, and provide a harmonized and structured input national-level database required for con- structing indices or developing an integrated risk assessment using the Indicator Toolkit within OpenQuake. In addition to the global country-level database, the Sub-national level socio-economic database for Asia- Pacific re- gion is currently under progress and a final set of indicators and accompanying databases are proposed for 21 countries.

Furthermore, municipal level socio-economic databases were compiled for use cases in Qu- ezon City and Kathmandu. The Kathmandu use case is being developed as part of a collabora- tive effort between the South Asia Institute at Heidelberg University, CEDIM at KIT, and the National Society for Earthquake Technology (NSET) in Kathmandu and focuses on an inte- grated seismic risk model for Kathmandu linked to seismic risk modelled in OpenQuake that considers the effect of social vulnerability at the geographical sub-municipal level (L3). In addi- Fig 2: Overview of the steps in the methodology tion to quantitative socio-economic databases, towards the creation of the more parsimonious da- a “score-card” is being developed and tested tabase, labelled “Social and Economic Vulnerability through workshops with stakeholders in Kath- Database”. mandu which consists of a series of evaluation 88 Global Earthquake Model

Population Population structure, Household structure, Economy Health Special needs Income distribution and population Healthcare resources, poverty, labour market, Healthcare status Economic resources, Economic activity

Education

Index Socio-economic Education access, Indices Database Education outcome

Governance Basic geography, Land use/land cover, Disaster Transport and Laws, Rights and voice, prevalence communication, Energy, Absence of violence and Water and sanitation, terrorism, Government Environment building and building effectiveness, Political stability, aggregates, Equipment Control of corruption and non-structural components Infrastructure

Fig 3: Themes and respective subthemes of the socio-economic database, italicised labels are the themes and the labels below are the subthemes.

criteria designed to cover the policy & planning, Concluding Remarks and Outlook engineering, informational, organisational, fi- nancial, social and environmental aspects of Further development of the databases for in- disaster resilience in Kathmandu not readily tegrated risk assessment aims to statistically captured through publicly available data. analyse and determine the key socio-economic vulnerability indicators for countries of the Asia- The Quezon City use-case is also being final- Pacific region at a sub-national level (e. g. Pro- ized and is based on a collaborative effort be- vincial). Differences and similarities between tween CEDIM at KIT and the Earthquake and the key indicators of socio-economic vulner- Megacities Initiative (EMI), and the Quezon ability are be discussed and investigated. Re- City Government with participation of local and sults will be completed and reported in Decem- national stakeholders. The use case is struc- ber 2013. Two additional case studies are also tured around efforts to establish a disaster risk currently underway: 1) The first will be estab- reduction and management system within the lished at the national level (L1) and proposes city and to institutionalize DRRM protocols, a framework of social vulnerability indicators to policies, procedures, and functions within the better articulate the potential of being displaced Quezon City government. The goal of the in- and seeking public shelter after a damaging dicators is to identify concentrations of the earthquake; and 2) A second example will be highest impact areas at the geographical sub- developed to consider aspects of the private municipal level in Quezon City with a focus on sector such as the insurance and reinsurance the decision-making needs of local government industries. Here, a database developed for Ja- authorities in Quezon City. The selection of so- pan at the sub-national level (L2) of geography cial vulnerability and coping capacity indicators will be used for the development of vulnerability and their respective weights in Quezon City is indices to assess the potential for indirect eco- a fully participatory process and implemented nomic loss. Finally, a “mock-up” of the Indicator through workshops with 40 stakeholders from Toolkit has already been developed, and work 21 city offices and organizations in Quezon is underway at the GEM Modelling Facility in City. Pavia in developing the software. Global Earthquake Model 89

Core Science Team References

Bijan Khazai Khazai, B., Daniell, J., Power, C., Burton, C., Christopher Power Wenzel, F., Bendimerad, F. (2013) Monitoring James Daniell Changes in Global Social Vulnerability and In- Chirstopher Oberacker tegrated Risk Indicators through Time; Input to Chris Burton GAR15 – HFA Thematic Review for Indicator Natural Hazards and Risk Group, PFA/C12. Abstract for Input Paper Accepted. Geophysical Insitute, KIT. Anhorn, J., Khazai, B., Schaper, J., (2013) Open Space Suitability Analysis for Emergen- cy Shelter After An Earthquake – Kathmandu Case Study, Submitted to NHESS.

“Social Vulnerability and Integrated Risk” bewertungen innerhalb eines “Integrated Risk in GEM Toolkits” erreicht werden. Für das im Projekt entwickelte “Integrated Risk Toolkit” wird eine Das Projekt “Social Vulnerability and Integrated statistisch robuste, geographische Datenbank Risk” in GEM integriert OpenSource Software, für die Daten der sozialen und ökonomischen OpenDatabases und Indikatoren mit GEMs Vulnerabilitäts-Indikatoren auf nationaler (welt- laufenden Aktivitäten im Bereich der Gefahren weit), subnationaler (asiatischer Pazifikraum) und Risiken. Im Projekt soll die Entwicklung von und regionaler Ebene (Japan, Quezon City und sozialen und ökonomischen Vulnerabilitäts- Kathmandu) entwickelt. Indikatoren und die Verknüpfung mit Risiko-

EMCA & Co.: Towards Harmonized Seismic Risk in Central Asia

Massimiliano Pittore, Marc Wieland, Dino Bindi, Shahid Ullah, Marco Pilz, Kevin Fleming, Jochen Zschau, Stefano Parolai

Introduction million people of different countries and ethnic groups live side by side within a delicate geo- Even a cursory glance at the global model of political environment (Pittore et Al, 2012). seismic hazard provides a hint as to the rea- sons why Central Asia is such an important re- GFZ is involved in a number of projects focus- gion for research into earthquake hazard, and ing on Central Asia within the broad framework of such concern for the local administrations. of disaster risk reduction (DRR). In particular, Countries such as Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, EMCA (Earthquake Model Central Asia), co- Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan share ordinated by GFZ, is the regional component not only a long and fascinating cultural history, of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) initia- but also a high level of exposure to seismic risk tive, and aims to provide a comprehensive risk and other natural hazards, such as landslides assessment for the entire region, working in and floods. Of particular importance is the Fer- partnership with local institutions and building ghana valley, an area measuring around 300 upon global standards, tools and approaches by 70 km, situated between the mountain sys- developed within the broader range of GEM tem of Tien-shan, in the north, and the Gissar- activities. Similarly, the PROGRESS (Potsdam alai system in the south, where more than 11 Research Cluster for Georisk Analysis, Envi- 90 Global Earthquake Model

ronmental Change and Sustainability) project assets exposed to seismic hazard is therefore is tackling seismic risk from the exposure point the scope of exposure modelling. Due to high of view within the context of early warning sys- urbanization rates and an increasingly high tems. Meanwhile, more recently the SENSUM spatio-temporal variability in many Central (Framework to integrate Space-based and Asian cities, local authorities are often unable in-situ sENSing for dynamic vUlnerability and to keep track of the building inventory. recovery Monitoring), an FP7-SPACE project, intends to boost the application of remote sens- In order to define a harmonized, regional de- ing and geo-spatial information management scription of the most common building ty- for vulnerability assessment and post-earth- pologies for Central Asia, and to facilitate the quake recovery monitoring. transfer of knowledge on how to derive such vulnerability functions following the newly es- Understanding and evaluating the impact of tablished standards of the GEM, a workshop seismic events on the exposed communities is on exposure and vulnerability assessment in the major challenge we are confronted with. A Central Asia was organized by GFZ in April reliable assessment of seismic risk is indeed 2013 at the Central Asian Institute for Ap- essential to efficient prevention and mitigation plied Geosciences (CAIAG) in Bishkek. The measures, and a basic component of the next workshop brought together experts from Kyr- generation of Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) gyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan systems. In the following, a brief overview of and Kazakhstan, all of which are also involved current activities and advancements related to in EMCA, as well as experts from the global risk assessment in Central Asia is provided. components on exposure and vulnerability as- sessment. Existing building typologies from the Seismic hazard estimation different countries were evaluated and a set of building types that are representative of the In the framework of EMCA, new assessments countries participating in EMCA were agreed of seismic hazard in Central Asia are ongoing, upon. in terms of MSK64 intensity. The intensity pre- diction equations developed for the area (Bindi Table 1 shows the proposed building types, at et al., 2011) has been exploited to evaluate the two levels of details. In average, almost half probability of exceedance of any given intensity of the exposed stock (44%) in urban areas is value over a fixed exposure time following the composed by masonry buildings, mostly unre- Site Approach to Seismic Hazard Assessment inforced. Another 30% of the stock is represent- (SASHA) . The evaluation is mainly based on ed by precast concrete large panel buildings. the seismic history available at different loca- The rural environment is clearly dominated by tions without requiring any a-priori assumption non-engineered, earthen buildings, usually as- about seismic zonation, allowing to test the sociated with high levels of seismic vulnerabil- influence of the latter when standard PSHA ity. procedure are applied. The seismic catalogue compiled within EMCA by the Kazakhstan Na- Building reports have been compiled for each tional Data Center-Almaty (KNDC), under the identified building type following a standard- supervision of N. Michaelova, has been also ized characterisation by means of the building considered to apply the spatially smoothed taxonomy proposed within GEM. For each ty- seismicity approach for PSHA. The computed pology, a description of the most likely struc- models confirm that Central Asia is exposed to tural features has been created based on joint high seismic hazard, in particular Kyrgyzstan technical discussions. The workshop has set (intensity VIII), Tajikistan (Intensity VIII and IX), an important milestone in the roadmap towards the western part and the Gazli area in Uzbeki- an integrated and harmonized exposure and stan (VIII and IX), and western Turkmenistan vulnerability model for Central Asia, and has (intensity VIII and IX close to Ashgabat). provided a good opportunity for high level ca- pacity building. Exposure modelling In order to provide a time- and cost-efficient Within the possible assets categories we focus approach to estimating exposure and vulner- on residential buildings, since most of the fa- ability at different scales over large areas, the talities due to earthquakes happen when the use of satellite remote sensing in combination buildings collapse. Creating an inventory of the with ground-based omnidirectional imaging types, amount and spatial distribution of such has been tested and applied. Free-of-cost, me- Global Earthquake Model 91

Table 1: Proposed two-levels description of buildings stock in Central Asia.

dium-resolution multi-spectral satellite images verted into damage probability matrices, and are used to subdivide urban environments into used to model the buildings fragility. areas of relatively homogeneous urban struc- ture types. The resulting segments are used as A preliminary vulnerability assessment for the strata to identify representative sample areas city of Bishkek in terms of EMS-98 scale has for a detailed per-building analysis of the ex- been computed. In order to efficiently deal with posed building stock with an omnidirectional data coming from multiple imaging sources, at camera system and high-resolution satellite im- varying scales and with different uncertainties, ages. The processing of the acquired and geo- a novel Bayesian approach for data integra- referenced satellite and omnidirectional imag- tion and vulnerability assessment was devel- es allows for the extraction of several building oped (Pittore & Wieland, 2012). The applica- attributes (e.g., building location, footprint area, tion of Bayesian networks allows to integrate building height) which indirectly relate to build- available information about the buildings in a ings’ physical vulnerability. The approach has sound but intuitive probabilistic framework. so far been successfully applied to some of the It therefore allows for each building success- main urban areas in Kyrgyzstan (Bishkek, Osh, fully characterised by both omnidirectional and Jalalabad) and Tajikistan (Dushanbe, Khorog). satellite imaging, to generate the posterior probability distribution of its vulnerability. Fur- Vulnerability assessment thermore, statistical models can be seamlessly mixed with expert judgement without losing Possible approaches for physical vulnerability consistency. Several activities has been started assessment of buildings stock can be divided in Central Asia to address the development of into three main categories: expert-based, em- analytic fragility curves for the buildings stock, pirical or analytical, but hybrid solutions are ap- in collaboration with international partner insti- plied as well. In Central Asia, most used are tutions. the empirical approaches based on the MSK and the EMS98 scales, which define different grades of damage as discrete, categorical vari- ables. EMS-98 in particular provides qualita- tive relationships between damage grades and macroseismic intensity which can be then con- 92 Global Earthquake Model

Application to Early Warning and Rapid In fact, earthquake-triggered landslides are an Response example of where the triggered event, i.e., the landslide, is more devastating than the trigger The task of providing decision-makers with a itself. In Tajikistan for instance, in 1949 flows useful early warning in case of an earthquake in loess probably triggered by a combination of is very challenging. In contrast to other natural the main shock, aftershocks, and heavy rainfall hazards, characterized often by a creeping on- killed an estimated 15,000 people, and a rock set, such as landslides or floods, earthquakes avalanche triggered by the main shock buried almost always strike without any real warning. the town of Khait, killing at least 3,000 peo- In a regional early warning application scheme, ple. Remarkably, only few earthquake-induced especially in Central Asia, the high spatial landslides reactivate older landslides; most are density of seismic sources and their close- in materials that have not previously failed. ness to important urban areas define strict upper bounds on the expected time available However, the number of earthquakes with al- for emergency actions after issuing a warning. most complete data sets on the occurrence of An alternative on-site application scheme is secondary effects is still small, and one of the therefore suggested, where EW systems are most pressing research needs is for complete more geared towards Rapid Response (see landslide inventories for many more events in a also Frühwarnsystem Für Bishkek, this issue). wider variety of environments. Whereas many Within this operational context, reliable, spa- additional inventories in all regions are need- tially-detailed loss scenarios would be released ed, data from seismically active regions of e.g. immediately before, or in the immediate after- Central Asia are especially desirable. math of an earthquake (Picozzi et al.,2013). This in turn would provide timely information to Such additional data, coupled with the increas- better coordinate and optimise the deployment ing use of GIS, can be used in a multi-risk view of search and rescue teams and the manage- of exposure which may involve, for example, ment of other emergency measures. the encroaching of human settlements and in- frastructure into areas more susceptible to dif- The development of a catalogue of loss sce- ferent hazards. Considering vulnerability, the narios is planned for the most prominent towns situation arises where, for example, a structure in Central Asia, starting from the capitals weakened by an initial event is further dam- (Bishkek, Dushanbe, Almaty, Tashkent, Ash- aged by subsequent events. In the end, this gabat). For each target town, a set of seismic should lead to additional refinements of exist- events compatible with the local hazard will be ing models and, therefore, to our ability to mini- created, and used as a basis for the stochas- mize damage and loss of life from seismically tic simulation of the expected macroseismic generated landslides. Activities focusing on intensity field (accounting for site amplification multi-hazard risk assessment are currently on- effects where possible). The set of stochas- going within project MATRIX, in Germany, and tic realizations are then used to estimate the in Central Asia in partnership with local institu- probability distribution of physical loss (in terms tions. of buildings collapses, or extended structural damage) over the spatial extension of the se- Conclusions lected urban environment. Central Asia is acknowledged as one of the Towards multi-hazard risk assessment most hazardous areas in the world, in consid- eration of the several natural hazards threaten- Another aspect of hazard and risk research ing the region. On the one hand, this is paired in Central Asia which will play a greater role with unique geological and geophysical condi- in future activities involves multi-hazard and tions which makes it an optimal and stimulating risk assessment. By this, we mean a process laboratory for researchers. On the other hand, by which not only one type of hazard is con- scientists ought to consider as well the signifi- sidered but the various spatial and temporal cant threat to the exposed population and eco- interactions that may arise at the hazard, ex- nomical infrastructure, and provide local end- posure and vulnerability levels. For example, users with knowledge and information about earthquake triggered landslides are one of the the expected risk and its evolution, in order to classic cases of a multi-hazard event. undertake better prevention and mitigation ac- tions. In this short article we presented some of the latest research activities carried out at Global Earthquake Model 93 the Center for Early Warning in the framework Riznichenko, Yu.V. (1959). On quantitative de- of several projects, which aim at better under- termination and mapping of seismic activity, standing the complex nature of seismic risk in Annals of Geophysics, 12, 227–237. Central Asia and provide innovative solutions for its reliable and efficient estimation. A pro- Evans, S.G., Roberts, N.J., Ischuk, A., Dela- spective application in the field of Earthquake ney, K.B., Morozova, G.S. and Tutubalina, O. Early Warning was introduced along with a (2009) Landslides triggered by the 1949 Khait discussion on the next extension to multiple earthquake, Tajikistan, and the associated loss hazards. The results are encouraging and the of life, Engineering Geology, vol. 109, pp. 195- feedback from local partners and end-users 212. stimulate further efforts. Erdik M, Rashidov E, Safak, Turdukulov A. Core Science Team (2005) Assessment of seismic risk in Tashkent, Uzbekistan and Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic. Massimiliano Pittore Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering; Marc Wieland 25:473–86. Dino Bindi Shahid Ullah Giardini D (1999):The global Seismic Hazard Marco Pilz Assessment Program (GSHAP)—1992/1999. Kevin Fleming Annali di Geofisica, 42(6), 957–74. Jochen Zschau Stefano Parolai Mushketov DI.(1933) Opyt seysmicheskogo Section 2.1 Physics of Earthquakes and rayonirovanija S.S.S.R. Tr. Seismol. Inst. Akad. Volcanoes, GFZ Nauk S.S.S.R., 33, 1–17.

References Picozzi, M., D. Bindi, M. Pittore, K. Kieling, and S. Parolai (2013) “Real-time risk assessment Bindi D, K. Abdrakhmatov, S.Parolai, in seismic early warning and rapid response: M.Mucciarelli, G. Grünthal, A. Ischuk, N. a feasibility study in Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan),” J. Mikhailova, J.Zschau (2011a) Seismic hazard Seism., DOI 10.1007/s10950-013-9381-4. assessment in Central Asia: Outcomes from a site approach, Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Savarensky E. F. (1968): On the prediction of Engineering 37 (2012) 84–91. earthquakes. Tectonophysics, 6(1), 17–27.

Bindi, D, Parolai, S, Oth, A, Abdrakhmatov, K, Stock C, E. G. C. Smith (2002): Adaptive Ker- Muraliev, A, Zschau, J. (2011b). Intensity Pre- nel Estimation and Continuous Probability diction Equations for Central Asia, Geophysi- Representation of Historical Earthquake Cata- cal Journal International, 2011;187(1):327–37. logs, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05142.x. America, Vol. 92, No. 3, pp. 904–912.

Cornell CA (1968). Engineering seismic risk Ulomov V. I. (1999): The GSHAP Region 7 analysis. Bulletin of the Seismological Society working group. Seismic hazard of Northern of America, 58(5):1583–606. Eurasia. Annali di Geofisica 42:1023–38.

D’Amico V, Albarello D. (2008). SASHA: a com- Seed, H. B. (1968): Landslides During Earth- puter program to assess seismic hazard from quakes Due to Soil Liquefaction, American intensity data. Seismological Research Letters, Society of Civil Engineers, Journal of the Soil 79(5), 663–71. Mechanics and Foundations Division, 94, 1053–1122. Frankel, A. (1995). Mapping seismic hazard in the Central and Eastern United States, Seis- Keeper, D. K. (1984). Landslides caused by mological Research Letters. 66(4), 8–21. earthquakes. Geological Society of America Bulletin, 95(4), 406-421. 94 Global Earthquake Model

EMCA - Reduzierung des seismischen Projekten konzentriert sich das Zentrum für Risikos in Zentralasien Frühwarnung des GFZ auf die verschiedenen Komponenten der Risikoabschätzung in Zen- Zentralasien zählt zu den am stärksten gefähr- tralasien. Dieser Artikel stellt einen kurzen deten Erdbebenregionen der Welt. Darüber hin- Überblick über die aktuellen Forschungsaktivi- aus ist die Region durch einen hohen Grad an täten dar und beleuchtet deren Anwendung im Exposition und Verwundbarkeit gekennzeich- Rahmen von Frühwarn- und Rapid-Response- net. Vor allem die Erfassung der Dynamik des Systemen, sowie deren Weiterentwicklung städtischen Raumes stellt eine große Heraus- im Zusammenhang von Multi-Gefährdungs- forderung für verlässliche und aktuelle Risiko- Risikoabschätzungen. abschätzungen der Region dar. In mehreren Strategic Partnerships 95

II. Strategic Partnerships

Stakeholder Interactions for Near Real-Time Forensic Analysis of Disasters

Introduction stakeholders. This includes the understanding of the science processes relevant for Near Re- The Forensic Disaster Analysis (FDA) research al-Time Forensic Disaster Analysis (FDA) and in CEDIM requires a systematic approach for the organizational constituent conditions un- ab-initio engagement with stakeholders with der which stakeholders work, ensuring that the clear definitions of mutual needs and process- FDA works are operationalised and relevant to es of engagement and interaction. For this be used beyond the academic domain. The re- purpose it is necessary to understand the op- sults (positive or negative) of interaction with erations and organisational characteristics of each of the stakeholders are documented in a the respective stakeholders, what their needs form that includes the detailed contacts, the es- are and the extent to which FDA can contribute sentials of the discussions, the identified user to them. To support and structure the sharing needs and reflections on the interactive pro- of information at the time of an event, within cesses and protocols to transfer FDA analysis the framework of the Helmholtz Earth System and modelling results into relevant outputs that Knowledge Platform (ESKP) a study has been could better serve the needs of the respective conducted with a carefully selected group of stakeholders. stakeholders to map their needs and identify processes of engagement. So far this year researchers from CEDIM have held a number of meetings with key represent- Aims/Objective atives of several organizations within the civil protection and humanitarian aid sector. The aim of this project is to organize stake- holder interactions along topical Focus Groups Concluding Remarks and Outlook representing both public and private sectors; including civil protection, humanitarian aid Follow-up activities with stakeholders require and disaster relief, international development, utilizing the information gathered to better tourism and the insurance/reinsurance sec- structure FDA outputs such that they are more tors. The scientific task of this study consists relevant, and to further develop research con- in: (a) understanding the transfer conditions of cepts together with stakeholders so that they scientific knowledge to the stakeholders, (b) serve mutual needs and interests. In the next developing strategies and best practice cases period, engagement is being sought with key based on this, and (c) developing implementa- representatives of development organizations tion instruments (e.g., guidelines, cooperation and the Insurance and Re-insurance sectors. agreements) to support the engagement with 96 Strategic Partnerships Earth System Knowledge Platform - ESKP

Introduction • Feedback to science about knowledge gaps and stimulation of respective re- The „Earth System Knowledge Platform -ESKP“ search initiatives is part of the Helmholtz Association’s Portfolio process in the Research Field Earth and En- Cooperations vironment. The eight centres in this field take part in the initiative that is jointly coordinated ESKP is linked to all scientific programmes, by Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German portfolio topics and platforms in the Helmholtz Research Centre for Geosciences and Helm- Research Field Earth and Environment. The holtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Centre for Materi- organizational structure consists of a small, de- als and Coastal Research (HZG). The coordi- centralized team of scientists and technicians. nation office is located at GFZ. In cooperation An ESKP staff member is always on location in with the participating Helmholtz-Centres, the each centre as a competent partner for science latest research findings and news about ongo- and knowledge transfer. CEDIM is projected ing events will form the topical content. as a main contributor of content about natural hazards, their impacts and consequences. The Aims/Objective CEDIM focus area “Forensic Disaster Analysis in Near Real-Time” analyses ongoing events The intended purpose of ESKP is to commu- and thus contributes to ESKP-content. CEDIM nicate scientific results and knowledge in a employees also provide background informa- way that enables society to mitigate hazardous tion on disaster sources, processes, receptors developments and react adequately to pre- and consequences. Via ESKP, CEDIM has di- sent and future environmental changes. The rect access to a broad network of experts in Helmholtz-Association possesses tremendous disaster risk analysis. research resources in the earth and environ- mental sciences as well as knowledge about Special summaries derived from the reports the Earth system and its changes. The Earth were also put on the web page of ESKP of the System Knowledge Platform integrates and ac- Helmholtz-Association. tivates this knowledge base. Project status Hence, the basic aims of ESKP are: The ESKP-website will go online in the first • The articulate presentation of scientific quarter of 2014 and thereby will enter the op- knowledge that is already available in the erational stage. In this stage, background in- participating Helmholtz-Centres, to target formation will be improved and complemented groups (governmental departments/autho- with new information step by step. CEDIM FDA rities, policy/decision makers, media, the activities from the year 2013 are online on the public) ESKP test website. Preliminary work and col- • The setting scientific knowledge in context laboration has begun. with a special focus on adaptation strate- gies Strategic Partnerships 97 Cooperation with the Insurance Industry

Willis Research Network turn be combined with insurance portfolios in order to estimate return periods of loss events The Willis Research Network (WRN), formed for the insurers. A further aim of the project is to in 2006 by the global insurance broker Willis, improve the understanding of the relationship is a network of currently 50 of the world’s lead- between the strength of convection and the ing research institutions. It aims to provide an formation of hail and local probabilities of hail, open forum for the advancement of the science including identification of the most relevant me- of extreme events through close collaboration teorological processes. between universities, insurers, reinsurers, ca- tastrophe modelling companies, government References (2013) research institutions and non-governmental organizations. CEDIM has become the first Anhorn, J., Khazai, B., Schaper, J., (2013): German partner of the network in 2009. As a Open Space Suitability Analysis for Emergen- partner of the WRN, CEDIM staff gather ex- cy Shelter After An Earthquake – Kathmandu perience in the cooperation with insurance Case Study, Submitted to Natural Hazards and industry partners and has learned about their Earth System Sciences. needs and research priorities. This experience can be expected to foster further cooperation Burton, C., Silva V., Khazai, B., (2013): Social with insurance companies both on the national Vulnerability and Integrated Risk Assessment and international scale. WRN cooperates with within the Global Earthquake Model - Portugal CEDIM through the working groups “Geolog- Case Study, Tenth U.S. National Conference ical Hazards and Risks” at GPI/KIT on social on Earthquake Engineering, Anchorage, Alas- vulnerability related to earthquake and “Atmos- ka, July 21-25, 2014. pheric Risks” at IMK/KIT on the topic of hail re- search. Khazai, B., Daniell, J., Power, C., Burton, C., Wenzel, F., Bendimerad, F. (2013): Monitoring The Social Vulnerability and Integrated Risk Changes in Global Social Vulnerability and In- Project in GEM which is co-funded by Willis will tegrated Risk Indicators through Time; Input to deliver indicator methods and an open source GAR15 – HFA Thematic Review for Indicator software that will be integrated into the GEM PFA/C12. OpenQuake Platform. The indicators and the indicator toolkit (software) can be used world- Punge, H.J., Bedka, K., Kunz, M., Werner, A. wide to explore the compounding nature of (accepted 2014): A new physically based sto- earthquake events through consideration of chastic event catalog for hail in Europe. Sub- factors related to socio-econmic vulnerability mitted to Natural Hazards and Earth System and development of global and sub-regional Sciences. socio-economic databases. User case studies in Japan, Kathmandu (Nepal) and Quezon City Punge, H.J., Bedka, K, Stephenson, D. B. , (Philippines) are also developed for the appli- Kunz, M., Puskeiler, M, Werner, A (2013): A cation of the indicator tools for various contexts new stochastic event catalogue for hail in Eu- and different geographic scales. rope. European Conference on Severe Storms (ECSS), 3-7 June 2013, Helsinki, Finland. Within the second project, CEDIM works on the hazard component of a Pan European Hail Punge, H.J., Werner, A, Bedka, K, Kunz, model that allows estimation of the frequency, Puskeiler, M (2013): A climatology of severe extent and severity of hail events. The model convection based on IRW overshooting cloud is based on overshooting top data from the top detection and its application for a Europe- METEOSAT Second Generation (MSG) satel- an risk model for hail. DACH, 2-6 Sept. 2013, lite as a proxy for hail. This method leads to a Innsbruck, Austria. unique, spatially homogeneous event dataset covering continental Europe. From stochastic modelling of the frequency, length, width, and severity of hail events, a large event set for hail storms expected to occur within several thou- sand years is created. This event set can in 98 Strategic Partnerships

Sparkassenversicherung SV References (2013):

In Southern Germany the total damage caused Mohr, S. (2013): Änderung des Gewitter- und by severe hail reaches a magnitude that is only Hagelpotentials im Klimawandel. Wiss. Ber. In- exceeded by large-scale winter storms. Current stit. Meteorol. Clim. Res., No. 58, KIT Scientific examples of such events are the hailstorms at Publishing, Karlsruhe, 246 p. the end of July 2013, which caused insured losses in the order of 2.7 bn € – more than the Mohr, S., Kunz, M. (2013): Trend analysis of two floods in 2002 and 2013. convective indices relevant for hail events in Germany and Central Europe; Atmos. Res., Despite the high loss potential of hail, there are 123, 211-228, DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j. currently only a few hail models available in atmosres.2012.05.016. the insurance market, most of them based on damage data. To improve the robustness and Mohr, S., Kunz, M. (2013): Changes in the hail reliability of hail damage estimates, CEDIM/ potential over past and future decades: Using IMK developed a novel and unique hail model a logistic hail model. Submitted to J. Geophys. for the SV SparkassenVersicherung AG insur- Res. ance company. The CEDIM hail model consid- ers several thousands of footprints from past Mohr, S., Kunz, M (2013): Changes of Thun- hailstorms in Germany, estimated by combin- derstorm and Hail Potential in Climate Change. ing radar data from the German Weather Ser- European Conference on Severe Storms vice (DWD) with lightning data from Siemens (ECSS), 3-7 June 2013, Helsinki, Finland. and insurance loss data. The hazard part of the model shows several interesting features, for Mohr, S., Kunz, M (2013): Änderung des Ge- example, a systematic increase in the number witter- und Hagelpotentials im Klimawandel. of hail days from the north to the south or the DACH, 2-6 Sept. 2013, Innsbruck, Austria. location of several hail hot spots downstream of low mountain ranges. To quantify the almost robust recurrence curves, the relevant intensi- ty parameters are simulated by randomization over a long-term period. In the final version, the CEDIM hail model allows the quantification of probable maximum loss (PML) or to estimate damage from single events.

Stiftung Umwelt und Schadenvorsorge

For several years now KIT and CEDIM have collaborated with the University of Stuttgart in a joint PhD programme which is funded by the “Stiftung Umwelt und Schadenvorsorge” of the SV SparkassenVersicherung AG. At the beginning of 2013, the CEDIM candidate Susanna Mohr finished her PhD with the title “Änderung des Gewitter- und Hagelpotentials im Klimawandel” (Changes in the thunderstorm and hail potential due to climate change). In her thesis, she investigated long-term changes in atmospheric stability related to thunderstorm and hail probability. Based on an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate models, she further quantified the hail potential and long- term changes over Germany by developing and applying a logistic hail model. Strategic Partnerships 99 Cooperation with Fraunhofer Institute of Optronics, System Technologies and Image Exploitation

The ISCRAM Conference (International Con- emerged over time such as “Social Media”, ference on Information Systems for Crisis Re- “Humanitarian Relief Logistics”, “Visual Analyt- sponse Management), organized by KIT and ics for Crisis Management”, and “Critical Infra- Fraunhofer IOSB, was held from 12 to 15 May structures”. This clearly demonstrates that the 2013 in Baden-Baden. ISCRAM 2013 focused ISCRAM community is developing continuous- on Holistic Crisis Management, which aims at ly and tries to find answers to new challenges. the interdisciplinary development and design of This is in line with the activities of CEDIM re- information systems. This emphasis is intend- lated to the modelling of Critical Infrastructures ed to enable better crisis planning, response, and Forensic Disaster Analysis. mitigation, recovery, and training by using inte- grated approaches that combine organisation- About 250 researchers attended the confer- al, behavioural, technical, economic and envi- ence and roughly 150 papers were presented. ronmental aspects. More than 20 different topics were discussed and plenary sessions conducted to tackle im- At ISCRAM 2013, we celebrated the 10th An- portant issues such as the question of how to niversary of the ISCRAM series of conferenc- bridge the gap between science and practice. es, which started in 2004 in Belgium. Although Looking at the feedback, the conference has important topics such as “decision support”, been a success and the effort of the organising “complexity and interoperability”, “human fac- organisations was highly appreciated. It also tors”, “training and gaming” have remained in strengthened KIT, Fraunhofer and CEDIM in the conference programme, new topics have the ISCRAM community. 100 Publications

III. Publications 2013

Articles in Journals and Books

Anhorn, J., B. Khazai, J. Schaper (Submit- (pp. 98-118). Hershey, PA: Information Science ted 2013): Open Space Suitability Analysis Reference. doi:10.4018/978-1-4666-4169-3. for Emergency Shelter After An Earthquake – ch007. Kathmandu Case Study, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS). Falter, D., Dung, N.V., Vorogushyn, S., Schröter, Hundecha, Y., Kreibich, H., Apel, Bubeck, P.; W. J. W. Botzen, H. Kreibich, J. H., Theisselmann, F., Merz, B. (2013a): Con- C. J. H. Aerts (2013 online first): Detailed tinu-ous, large-scale simulation model for flood insights into the influence of flood-coping ap- risk assessments: proof-of-concept, submit- praisals on mitigation behaviour. Global Envi- ted to Journal of Flood Risk Management. ronmental Change. Falter, D., S. Vorogushyn, J. Lhomme, H. Apel Conradt, T., Roers, M., Schröter, K., Elmer, F., B. Gouldby, B. Merz (2013b): Hydraulic mod- Hoffmann, P., Koch, H., Hattermann, F.F., and el evaluation for large-scale flood risk assess- Wechsung, F. (2013): Vergleich der Extrem- ments. Hydrological Processes, 27, 9, 1331- hochwässer 2002 und 2013 im deutschen Teil 1340. des Elbegebiets und deren Abflusssimulation durch SWIM-live. Comparison of the extreme Heimann, S., González, Á., Wang, R., Cesca, S., floods of 2002 and 2013 in the German part Dahm, T., (2013): Seismic characterization of of the Elbe River basin and their runoff simu- the Chelyabinsk meteor‘s terminal explosion, lation by SWIM-live. Hydrologie und Wasser- Seismological Research Letters, Vol. 84, No. 6, bewirtschaftung 57, 241 – 245 (doi: 10.5675/ 1021-1025, doi: 10.1785/0220130042. HyWa_2013,5_4). Hoechner A., Ge M., Babeyko A. Y., and Sobolev Daniell, J.E. (submitted 2013): Socioeconomic S. V. (2013): Instant tsunami early warning impact of earthquake disasters, in “Earthquake based on real-time GPS – Tohoku 2011 case Hazard, Risk, and Disasters”, ed: Prof. Max study, Natural Hazards and Earth System Wyss, Earthquake and Seismic Hazards and Sciences (NHESS),13, 1285-1292. Disasters. Elsevier. Holschneider, M., Zöller, G., Clements, R. A., Daniell, J.E., B. Khazai, F. Wenzel (accepted Schorlemmer, D. (in revision): Can we test 2013): Uncovering the 2010 Haiti Earthquake for the maximum possible earthquake mag- death toll, Natural Hazards and Earth System ni-tude?, Journal of Geophysical Research. Sciences.(NHESS), Discussions, 1, 19131942, 2013. doi: 10.5194/nhessd-1-1913-2013. Khazai, B., Daniell, J.E., Düzgün, S., Kunz- Plapp, T., Wenzel, F. (2013): Framework for Daniell, J.E., Schäfer, A., Wenzel, F., and Systemic Socio-Economic Vulnerability and Khazai, B. (2013): Weltweite Verluste durch Loss Assessment, In Framework for System- von Erdbeben induzierten Sekundäreffekte ic Socio-Economic Vulnerability and Loss und deren Bedeutung für D-A-CH und das Ver- As-sessment, eds: K. Pitilakis, P. Franchin, sicherungswesen, Beitragsnr. 138, 13. D-A-CH B. Khazai, H. Wenzel. Tagung für Erdbebeningenieurwesen und Bau- dynamik (D-A-CH 2013) C. Adam, R. Heuer, W. Khazai, B., Daniell, J., Power, C., Burton, C., Lenhardt & C. Schranz (Hrsg.) 29.-30. August Wenzel, F., Bendimerad, F. (2013): Monitoring 2013, Wien, Österreich. Changes in Global Social Vulnerability and In-tegrated Risk Indicators through Time; Input Dransch, D., K. Poser, J. Fohringer, C. Lucas to GAR15 – HFA Thematic Review for In- (2013): Volunteered Geographic Information dicator PFA/C12. Abstract for Input Paper Ac- for Disaster Management. In C. Silva (Ed.), cepted. Citizen E-Participation in Urban Governance: Crowdsourcing and Collaborative Creativity Publications 101

Khazai, B., T. Kunz-Plapp, C. Büscher, A. Wegn- Picozzi, M., D. Bindi, M. Pittore, K. Kieling, and er (accepted 2013): VuWiki: An ontology-based S. Parolai (2013): Real-time risk assess- semantic wiki for vulnerability assessments, In- ment in seismic early warning and rapid ternational Journal of Disasters Risk Science. response: A feasibility study in Bishkek (Kyr- gyzstan), Journal of Seismology, 17, 2, 485- Komendantova, N., R. Mrzyglocki, A. Mignan, 505, doi: 10.1007/s10950-013-9381-4. B. Khazai , B. Wenzel (accepted 2013): Eval- uating stakeholder perceptions in multi-hazard Power, C., Daniell, J. E., Khazai, B., Oberack- and multi-risk decision support models, Inter- er, C. & Schaper, J. (2013): Socio-Economic national Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. Vulnerability and Integrated Risk Initiative: Sta- tus Report #2, GEM Willis Socioeconomic Kreibich, H., K. Schröter, P. Bubeck, S. Paro- Resilience Project. lai, B. Khazai, J. Daniell, M. Kunz, H. Mahlke, T. Lakes (submitted 2013): A review of multiple Punge, H.J., Bedka, K., Kunz, M., Werner, A. natural hazard risks in Germany, Natural Haz- (submitted 2013): A new physically based sto- ards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS). chastic event catalog for hail in Europe. Sub- mitted to Natural Hazards and Earth System Kunz, M., Mühr, B., Kunz-Plapp, T., Daniell, J. Sciences. E., Khazai, B., Wenzel, F., Vannieuwenhuyse, M., Comes, T., Elmer, F., Schröter, K., Fohringer, Schneider, M., Clements, R., Rhoades, D., J., Münzberg, T., Lucas, C., Zschau, J. (2013): Schorlemmer, D. (submitted 2013): Likeli- Investigation of superstorm Sandy 2012 in a hood- and Residuals-Based Evaluation of multi-disciplinary approach. Natural Hazards Medium-Term Earthquake Forecast Models for and Earth System Sciences (NHESS), 13, California. 2579-2598, doi: 10.5194/nhess-13-2579-2013. Schröter, K., Kreibich, H., Zwenzner, H., Merz, Mak, S., Clements, R., Schorlemmer, D. (sub- B. (2013a): Schnelle Hochwasserereignisan- mitted 2013): Evaluating Intensity Prediction alyse in Deutschland, Wasserbaukolloqui- Equations for Italy. um 2013: Technischer und organisatorischer Hochwasserschutz -Bauwerke, Anforderun- Merz, B., H. Kreibich, U. Lall (2013): Multi-var- gen, Modelle, Wasserbauliche Mitteilungen iate flood damage assessment: a tree-based Heft 48, 163-172. data-mining approach. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS), 13, 1, 53-64. Vorogushyn, S., Dung, N.V., Falter, D., Apel, H. (2013): Benchmarking of a 2D flood inundation Mohr, S. (2013): Änderung des Gewitter- und model implemented in a GPU environment. In: Hagelpotentials im Klimawandel. Wissem- Klijn, F. and Schweckendiek, T. (eds.), Com- schaftliche Berichte des Institituts für Mete- prehensive Flood Risk Management. Research orologie und Klimaforschung des Karlsruher for policy and practice. Proceedings of the 2nd Instituts für Technologie, No. 58, KIT Scientific European Conference on Flood Risk Manage- Publishing, Karlsruhe, 246 pages. ment FLOODRisk2012, Rotterdam, The Neth- erlands, 19-23 November 2012, pp. 523- Mohr, S., Kunz, M. (2013): Trend analysis of 526, Taylor&Francis, Group, London, ISBN convective indices relevant for hail events in 978-0-415-62144-1. Germany and Central Europe; Atmospheric Research, 123, 211-228, doi:10.1016/j.atmos- Wyss, M., Wenzel, F., & Daniell, J.E. (submitted res.2012.05.016. 2013): How Useful is Early Warning and Can It Be Made More Effective? In Early Warning for Mohr, S., Kunz, M. (submitted 2013): Changes Geological Disasters (pp. 369–379). Springer. in the hail potential over past and future dec- ades: Using a logistic hail model. Submitted to Zechar, J. D., Schorlemmer, D., Werner, M. J., Journal of Geophysical Research. Gerstenberger, M. C., Rhoades, D. A., Jordan, T. H. (2013): Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models I: First-Order Results, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 103(2A), 787-798. 102 Publications CEDIM Reports

Daniell, J., B. Mühr, T. Kunz-Plapp (2013): Kunz, M., B. Mühr, K. Schröter, T. Bessel, S. Super Typhoon Haiyan/Yolanda – Report Möhrle, T. Münzberg, S. Brink, H.-M. Schmidt 10.11.2013 – Situation Report No. 1 – 12.00pm (2013): Winterstorm Xaver, 06 Dec 2013 – Re- GMT, http://www.cedim.de/download/CEDIM_ port No. 1, Situation Report – 19:00 CET, http:// TCHaiyan_Rep1.pdf. www.cedim.de/download/CEDIM-XaverRre- port1.pdf. Daniell, J., B. Mühr, T. Girard, A. Dittrich, J. Fohringer, C. Lucas, T. Kunz-Plapp (2013): Mühr, B., D. Köbele, T. Bessel, J. Fohringer, Super Typhoon Haiyan/Yolanda – Report C. Lucas (2013): Super Cyclonic Storm 02B 13.11.2013 – Report No. 2, Focus on Phil- Phailin - Report 1 with information as of 15 ippines – 18:00 GMT, http://www.cedim.de/ October 2013, http://www.cedim.de/download/ download/CEDIM_FDA_Haiyan_Rep2.pdf. CEDIM-Phailin_Report1.pdf.

Daniell, J.E., A. Vervaeck (2013): The CAT- Mühr, B., D. Köbele, T. Bessel, J. Fohringer, C. DAT Damaging Earthquakes Database – 2012 Lucas, T. Girard (2013): Super Cyclonic Storm – Year in Review, CEDIM Research Report 02B „Phailin“, Report 2 – 24 October 2013, 2013-01, Earthquake-Report OF Report, Karl- http://www.cedim.de/download/CEDIM-Phai- sruhe, Germany. lin_Report2.pdf.

Daniell, J.E., A. Vervaeck, S. Brink, F. Wen- Schröter, K., B. Mühr, F. Elmer, T. Kunz-Plapp, zel, J. Fohringer, S. Eggert, A. Dittrich, C. W. Trieselmann (2013): June 2013 Flood in Lucas, T. Girard, B. Khazai, B. Mühr, C. Pow- Central Europe - Focus Germany; 1 Report 1 er, W. Trieselmann, P. Nierop, J. Jaramillo, M. – Update 2: Preconditions, Meteorology, Hy- Docoy-Boucher, C. Robles, J. Skapski, L.-J. drology, http://www.cedim.de/download/FDA_ Schumann (2013): Philippines (Bohol) Earth- Juni_Hochwasser_Bericht1-ENG.pdf. quake – Report 1-6,.02.11.2013, https://www. cedim.de/english/2442.php.

Khazai, B., T. Bessel, S. Möhrle, A. Dittrich, K. Schröter, B. Mühr, F. Elmer, T. Kunz-Plapp, W. Trieselmann, M. Kunz (2013): June 2013 flood in Central Europe - Focus Germany; Report 2 – Update 1: Impact and management, http:// www.cedim.de/download/FDA-Juni-Hochwas- ser-Bericht2.1.pdf.

Conference Abstracts

Burton, C., Silva V., Khazai, B., (2013): Social Exploring New Directions for Decisions in the Vulnerability and Integrated Risk Assessment Internet Age, May 29-31, 2013. within the Global Earthquake Model - Portugal Case Study, Tenth U.S. National Conference Dittrich, A., & Lucas, C. (2013): A step towards on Earthquake Engineering, Anchorage, Alas- real-time analysis of major disaster events ka, July 21-25, 2014. based on tweets. In T. Comes, F. Fiedrich, S. Fortier, J. Geldermann, & T. Muller (Eds.). Pre- Comes, T., Vannieuwenhuyse, M. (2013): ICT- sented at the Proceedings of the 10th Interna- based Near Real-Time decision support for tional ISCRAM Conference, Baden-Baden. disaster and crisis management. Workshop on Publications 103

Elmer, F., Schröter, K., Mühr, B., Kunz-Plapp, Moehrle, S. (2013): Modeling Of Countermeas- T., Trieselmann, W., Kreibich, H., Kunz, M., ures for Large-scale Disasters Using High-lev- Merz, B. (2013): Das Hochwasser im Juni 2013 el Petri Nets, Proceedings of the 10th Interna- in Deutschland – Vorbedingungen, Auslöser tional Conference on Information Systems for und Ablauf. 13. Forum Katastrophenvorsorge, Crisis Response and Management (ISCRAM Hamburg, 11–12 December 2013. (Poster) 2013), Baden-Baden 2013.

Fohringer, J., S. Eggert (2013): Microblogging Münzberg, T., U. Berbner, T. Comes, H. Frie- als Informationsquelle für schnelle Schadenss- drich, W. Gross, H.-C. Pfohl, F. Schultmann chätzung nach Naturkatastrophen, 13. Forum (2013): Decision Support for Critical Infrastruc- Katastrophenvorsorge (Hamburg, 2013). ture Disruptions: An Integrated Approach to Secure Food Supply, Proceedings of the 10th Gerl, T. M., H. Kreibich, M. Bochow (2013): International Conference on Information Sys- Urban structure mapping using high-resolution tems for Crisis Response and Management remote sensing data for modelling flood losses (ISCRAM 2013), Baden-Baden 2013. in Dresden, Germany. General Assembly Eu- ropean Geosciences Union (Vienna, Austria Münzberg, T., T. Müller, S. Möhrle, T. Comes, 2013). F. Schultmann (2013): An Integrated Multi-Cri- teria Approach on Vulnerability Analysis in the Khazai, B., Bessel, T., Dittrich, A., Schröter, Context of Load Reduction. Proceedings of the K., Mühr, B., Elmer, F., Kunz-Plapp, T., Trie- 10th International Conference on Information selmann, W., Kunz, M. (2013): Das Hochwasser Systems for Crisis Response and Management im Juni 2013 in Deutschland – Auswirkungen (ISCRAM 2013), Baden-Baden 2013. und Bewältigung. 13. Forum Katastrophen- vorsorge, Hamburg, 11–12 December 2013. Punge, H.J., Bedka, K, Stephenson, D. B. , (Poster) Kunz, M., Puskeiler, M, Werner, A (2013): A new stochastic event catalogue for hail in Eu- Kreibich, H., K. Poser, I. Pech, M. Müller rope. European Conference on Severe Storms (2013): Flood information from affected people (ECSS), 3-7 June 2013, Helsinki, Finland. - gains and uncertainties. General Assembly European Geosciences Union (Vienna, Austria Punge, H.J., Werner, A, Bedka, K, Kunz, 2013). Puskeiler, M (2013): A climatology of severe convection based on IRW overshooting cloud Kunz, M., B. Mühr, K. Schröter, T. Kunz-Plapp, top detection and its application for a Europe- J. Daniell, B. Khazai, F. Wenzel, M. Vannieu- an risk model for hail. DACH, 2-6 Sept. 2013, wenhuyse, T. Gomes, T. Münzberg, F. Elmer, J. Innsbruck, Austria. Fohringer, C. Lucas, W. Trieselmann, J. Zschau (2013): Near Real-Time Forensic Disaster Schorlemmer, D., Clements, R., González, A. Analysis: experiences from hurricane Sandy. (2013): The Testability of Maximum Magnitude. General Assembly European Geosciences Un- Invited talk at: JpGU Annual Meeting, 2013 ion (Vienna, Austria 2013). May 21, Chiba, Japan.

Lin, L., F. Brauner, T. Münzberg, S. Meng, S. Schorlemmer, D., Schneider, M. (2013): Evalu- Möhrle (2013): Prioritization of Security Meas- ation of USGS Earthquake Forecast Models. ures against Terrorist Threats to Public Rail Invited talk at: SSJ Annual Meeting, 2013 Octo- Transport Systems using a Scenario-based ber 8, Yokohama, Japan. Multi-Criteria Method and a Knowledge Da- tabase, Future Security Conference , Berlin Schröter, K., Kreibich, H., Merz, B. (2013b): 2013. Rapid flood loss estimation for large scale floods in Germany. General Assembly Europe- Moehrle, S. (2013): Towards a decision support an Geosciences Union (Vienna, Austria 2013). system for disaster management, Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Confer- Schröter, K., H. Kreibich, K. Vogel, C. Rig- ence 2013 (ESREL 2013), Amsterdam, Nether- gelsen, F. Scherbaum, B. Merz, B. (2013): Com- lands, 29. 9 – 2.10. 2013. paring flood loss models of different complexity. General Assembly European Geosciences Un- ion (Vienna, Austria 2013). 104 Publications

Schröter, K., Elmer, F., Mühr, B., Nied, M. and Wang R., Diao F., Hoechner A. (2013): SDM-A the Cedim Fda Task Force (2013): June flood geodetic inversion code incorporating with lay- 2013 - A Hydro-Meteorological déjà vu? 4th ered crust structure and curved fault geome- Water Research Horizon Conference (WRHC), try, Geophysical Research Abstracts Vol. 15, 25-26th June 2013, Berlin. EGU2013-2411-1 (Poster presentation).

Vorogushyn, S., Dung, N.V., Falter, D., Apel, Wenzel, F., J. Zschau, M. Kunz, J.E. Daniell, B. H . (2013): Benchmarking of a 2D flood inunda- Khazai, T. Kunz-Plapp (2013): Near Real-Time tion model implemented in a GPU environment. Forensic Disaster Analysis, in: Comes, T., F. In: Klijn, F. and Schweckendiek, T. (eds.), Com- Fiedrich, S. Fortier, J. Geldermann, T. Müller prehensive Flood Risk Management. Research (eds) Proceedings of the 10th International IS- for policy and practice. Proceedings of the 2nd CRAM Conference – Baden-Baden, Germany, European Conference on Flood Risk Manage- May 2013. ment FLOODRisk2012, Rotterdam, The Neth- erlands, 19-23 November 2012, pp. 523-526, Taylor&Francis, Group, London, ISBN 978-0- 415-62144-1.

Imprint

CEDIM Annual Research Report 2013 - Focus on Forensic Disaster Analysis in Near Real-Time

Editors: Prof. Dr. Jochen Zschau In Authority: Prof. Dr. Jochen Zschau Dr. Werner Trieselmann State: April 2014 ISBN: 978-3-9816597-9-5 Supervision: Dr. Werner Trieselmann CEDIM Carolin Reger Center for Disaster Management and Lee-Jérôme Schumann Risk Reduction Technology c/o Helmholtz Centre Potsdam GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences Cover picture: Deichbruch bei Fischbeck Telegrafenberg Image by Bernd-Volker Brahms Captured 10 June 2013 14473 Potsdam, Germany Stendal district, Northern Saxony-Anhalt Phone.: +49 331 288-28608 By courtesy of Volksstimme Magdeburg/Stendal Fax: +49 331 288-1204

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KIT - University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and Helmholtz Centre Potsdam ISBN 978-3-9816597-9-5 National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences