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Annual Research Report 2013 Focus on Forensic Disaster Analysis in Near Real-Time

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Annual Research Report 2013 Focus on Forensic Disaster Analysis in Near Real-Time Annual Research Report 2013 Focus on Forensic Disaster Analysis in Near Real-Time Contact Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology CEDIM Head Office Helmholtz Centre Potsdam GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences Telegrafenberg 14473 Potsdam Germany Phone: +49 331 288-28608 Fax: +49 331 288-1204 E-Mail: [email protected] For further information about CEDIM please visit: www.cedim.de KIT - University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and Helmholtz Centre Potsdam ISBN 978-3-9816597-9-5 National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences Content 3 Content Preface .................................................................................................................................... 5 Vorwort .................................................................................................................................... 7 I. Research ....................................................................................................................9 Forensic Disaster Analysis ...................................................................................................... 9 FDA Research Projects ......................................................................................................... 13 Rapid Assessment of Slip Distribution Based on Near Field Displacement Wave Forms ................ 13 ATMO Forensic Prediction and Analysis ........................................................................................... 14 Rapid Flood Event Analysis in Germany .......................................................................................... 16 Loss Assessment for Earthquakes ................................................................................................... 17 Transportation Interruptions .............................................................................................................. 21 Crowdsourcing – Using Social Media for Rapid Damage Assessment ............................................ 22 Development of a CEDIM Database and Implementation of Case-Based Reasoning for Analytical Support ............................................................................................................................. 24 Assessment of Indirect Losses and Economic Impacts .................................................................... 25 Causal Loss Analysis ........................................................................................................................ 27 Information Gap Analysis: Near Real-Time Evaluation of Disaster Response ................................. 28 FDA Task Force Activities ...................................................................................................... 29 Super Typhoon Haiyan/Yolanda ....................................................................................................... 29 CEDIM Near Real-Time FDA Activity on Super Cyclone “Phailin”, Bay of Bengal, India .................. 33 June Flood 2013 in Central Europe – Focus Germany..................................................................... 40 Disaster Management ........................................................................................................... 49 Post-Disaster Damage Mapping ....................................................................................................... 49 Seismic Characterization of the Chelyabinsk Meteor’s Terminal Explosion ..................................... 52 Large-Scale Flood Risk Model for Germany ..................................................................................... 54 The Web Service „Wettergefahren-Frühwarnung“ (Weather Hazards – Early Warning) ................................................................................................. 56 Extreme Weather Events Analysed by “Wettergefahren-Frühwarnung” (Weather Hazards - Early Warning) .................................................................................................. 61 4 Content Vulnerability and Critical Infrastructures ................................................................................ 70 Risk Management Strategies in Logistics and Infrastructure Networks (RM-LOG) .......................... 70 Decision Support Methods in the Field of Critical Infrastructure Protection (DSM CIP): Overview ........................................................................................................................................... 72 DSM CIP: The RIKOV Project, Risks and Costs of Terrorist Threats Against Public Rail Transport Systems ............................................................................................................................ 74 DSM CIP: The SEAK Project, Decision Support for Managing Disruptions in Food Supply Chains ................................................................................................................................... 76 DSM CIP: The KritisF&E Project, Review on Critical Infrastructure Protection Related Research Projects............................................................................................................................. 78 DSM CIP: Modelling and Simulation of Critical Infrastructures Using an Agent-Based Approach ..................................................................................................................... 80 DSM CIP: Critical Infrastructure Disruption, Decision Support Through Assessing Spatial Vulnerabilities ........................................................................................................................ 82 Global Earthquake Model ...................................................................................................... 84 GEM Testing & Evaluation Center .................................................................................................... 84 Social Vulnerability and Integrated Risk Project in GEM .................................................................. 86 EMCA & Co.: Towards Harmonized Seismic Risk in Central Asia .................................................... 89 II. Strategic Partnerships ...........................................................................................95 Stakeholder Interactions for Near Real-Time Forensic Analysis of Disasters .................................. 95 Earth System Knowledge Platform - ESKP ...................................................................................... 96 Cooperation with the Insurance Industry .......................................................................................... 97 Cooperation with Fraunhofer Institute of Optronics, System Technologies and Image Exploitation ............................................................................................................................ 99 III. Publications 2013 ................................................................................................100 Articles in Journals and Books ........................................................................................................ 100 CEDIM Reports ............................................................................................................................... 102 Conference Abstracts ..................................................................................................................... 102 Imprint ................................................................................................................................. 104 Preface 5 Preface Since more than two years, the scientific work in July and August, the Bohol earthquake in the of the Center for Disaster Management and Philippines in October, and the winter storms Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM) has fo- over northern Germany at the end of the year cused on the forensic analyses of catastrophes (see also the articles in Chapter I). in Near Real-Time (Forensic Disaster Analysis, FDA). This approach aims to estimate and eval- Last year, CEDIM established an intensive di- uate the consequences of a disastrous event alogue with potential users of its reports, who immediately after its occurrence, tracking their included national and European disaster re- temporal evolution, and identifying the most lief and aid organizations. The feedback from important factors. Several models and meth- these organisations is important to CEDIM in ods generating Near Real-Time knowledge are order for it to address further users’ needs in being developed within various projects, e.g., future FDA reports. assessing the extent of a disaster in terms of direct and indirect damage or the number of re- To improve the CEDIM FDA projects for Near quired emergency shelters. These methods are Real-Time disaster analysis, automated infor- in turn supplemented by information distributed mation gathering from social networks was through the Internet via, e.g., social networks. implemented and a disaster database was created to compare and evaluate differttent In 2013, several disasters were forensically an- attributes across disasters. Following the re- alysed by the interdisciplinary team of CEDIM commendations of the CEDIM Advisory Board, and the results presented online through var- the socio-economic component in the research ious reports. Based on the knowledge of past was further strengthened: among other things, extreme events, CEDIM scientists analysed a research project for the rapid analysis of the the hydro-meteorological situation of the June efficiency of emergency
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