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Veidekke's Economic Activity Report VEIDEKKE'S ECONOMIC ACTIVITY REPORT 12 March 2018 WELCOME TO TOUGHER TIMES A few headlines from the past five years: So far, accurate 2 Veidekke's Economic Activity Report March 2018 AGENDA 1230: Welcome and introduction 1235: The world around us – positive surprises? Nejra Macic, macroeconomist at Prognosesenteret 1250: Tougher times ahead? – Veidekke’s market assessments for 2018 and 2019 Kristoffer Eide Hoen, Director of Analysis at Veidekke 1315: Transport market – big plans, what is the reality? Anders Wettre, Junior Analyst at Veidekke 1330: The green transition – what does it mean to the contractor market? Thomas Bjørnerud, Senior Consultant, DNV GL 1345: Concluding remarks Sønderborg Multicultural Centre Arne Giske, President and CEO of Veidekke 3 Veidekke's Economic Activity Report March 2018 THE WORLD AROUND US – POSITIVE SURPRISES? Nejra Macic 5 Veidekke's Economic Activity Report March 2018 GDP GROWTH 5.0% 4.9% 4.7% 3.9% 3.9% 3.7% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019 Global economy Advanced economies Emerging economies 6 Veidekke's Economic Activity Report March 2018 Higher interest rates Surprisingly positive 5 interest rate increases since 2015, and further increases ahead development in the EU, particularly in Germany Accounts for more Tax reform than half of the growth Oil prices in the global economy increased 20%, expected to gradually Higher commodity prices decline and stronger demand from the USA → Mexico and Brazil adjusted upwards Only 5 countries in the world with a negative GDP growth outlook in 2018–19 7 Veidekke's Economic Activity Report March 2018 8 Veidekke's Economic Activity Report March 2018 LEVEL OF ECONOMIC + Positive GDP growth is expected in all ACTIVITY IN 2017 European countries in 2018–19 + The forecast has been adjusted upwards for most countries, especially Germany, which will be in strong economic expansion throughout the period + Spain is the only country that has been adjusted downwards + Strong economic expansion in all of northern Europe except Norway and Finland in 2017–18, and from 2019 also including these two countries Strong economic expansion + Poland: after strong GDP growth of 4% last year, growth is expected to decline, Strong economic contraction but the economy will still be expanding + The ECB has started to reduce the printing of money from January 2018. First interest rate increase 9 Veidekke's Economic Activity Report March 2018 in the spring of 2019 10 Veidekke's Economic Activity Report March 2018 + Higher growth this year, but no strong economic expansion until 2019 + First interest rate increase towards the end of 2018 or early 2019 + Residential housing investments are declining, while the oil investments are starting to recover 2.5% + Fiscal policy is being tightened 2.4% + Improvement in South-West Norway: 1.9% minor regional differences + Economic upturn among our trading partners and higher oil prices will result in stronger export growth 2017 2018 2019 + Employment shows signs of improvement GDP growth and unemployment continues to decline 11 Veidekke's Economic Activity Report March 2018 12 Veidekke's Economic Activity Report March 2018 + The strong economic expansion will continue throughout the forecast period, despite declining growth + Improvement internationally and a continuing weak krone gives stronger export growth 2.9% + Residential housing prices down 6% during 2.5% last autumn, but prices have still more than doubled in 10 years 2.0% + Declining residential prices and investments + Continued decline in unemployment 2017 2018 2019 + First interest rate increase this autumn, reduction in the printing of money GDP growth 13 Veidekke's Economic Activity Report March 2018 14 Veidekke's Economic Activity Report March 2018 + Strong economic expansion last year 2.0% will continue throughout the period 1.9% despite declining growth 1.7% + Gradual tightening of fiscal policy and declining productivity growth + GDP growth will not reach old heights, 2017 2018 2019 but it may last longer GDP growth + Continued decline in unemployment. Lack of the right expertise + First interest rate increase in the summer of 2019 + Residential housing prices have increased for the last 5 years, but did not really take off until 2017 15 Veidekke's Economic Activity Report March 2018 AGENDA 1230: Welcome and introduction 1235: The world around us – positive surprises? Nejra Macic, macroeconomist at Prognosesenteret 1250: Tougher times ahead? – Veidekke’s market assessments for 2018 and 2019 Kristoffer Eide Hoen, Director of Analysis at Veidekke 1315: Transport market – big plans, what is the reality? Anders Wettre, Junior Analyst at Veidekke 1330: The green transition – what does it mean to the contractor market? Thomas Bjørnerud, Senior Consultant, DNV GL 1345: Concluding remarks Sønderborg Multicultural Centre Arne Giske, President and CEO of Veidekke 16 Veidekke's Economic Activity Report March 2018 CONSTRUCTION AND CIVIL ENGINEERING MARKET FORECASTS 2018–2019 Kristoffer Eide Hoen VEIDEKKE'S ECONOMIC ACTIVITY REPORT Provide forecasts for investments/revenue in construction and civil engineering through to the end of 2019 • Thoughts concerning driving forces and uncertainties Consensus economic forecasts based on data from recognised economic analysis institutions: • The IMF, the Swedish National Institute of Economic Research (KI), Statistics Norway, the Danish Economic Councils, central banks, etc. The forecasts for construction and civil engineering are prepared by Veidekke on the basis of: • Our experience of the correlation between economic factors and construction and civil engineering • Internal observation points across Scandinavia • Industry reports • Detailed market data at the county level in Norway and Sweden* • Machine learning to quantify forecasts • Enhanced monitoring of the major project market in transport and construction *Denmark is currently under development 18 Veidekke's Economic Activity Report March 2018 DIFFERENT PHASES IN A MARKET CYCLE Year 1–2 Year 3–5 Drivers Sales Start Production Handover 19 Veidekke's Economic Activity Report March 2018 CONSTRUCTION & CIVIL ENGINEERING FROM GROWTH TO DECLINE IN 2019 Scandinavian construction and civil engineering market*, NOK billion -2% Residential sector dominates, but will make a negative contribution from 2019 Downward adjustment of forecasts for +5% 2018 and 2019 +5% +4% *Veidekke’s forecasts for 2018 og 2019 Source: Statistics Norway, DST, Statistics Sweden and Veidekke 20 Veidekke's Economic Activity Report March 2018 CONSTRUCTION & CIVIL ENGINEERING FROM GROWTH TO DECLINE IN 2019 Scandinavian construction and civil engineering market*, NOK billion Residential sector dominates, but will make a negative contribution from 2019 Downward adjustment of forecasts for 2018 and 2019 *Veidekke’s forecasts for 2018 og 2019 Source: Statistics Norway, DST, Statistics Sweden and Veidekke 21 Veidekke's Economic Activity Report March 2018 CONSTRUCTION & CIVIL ENGINEERING MARKET SIZES, NORWAY AND SWEDEN Construction market in Norway and Sweden by segment,% of production value in 2017 (NOK 415 billion) Small houses & apartments Detached houses etc. Industrial & Schools Health Office 38% 22% warehouses 5% and care buildings 9% services 4% 5% Recreational Retail and Culture Other homes commercial and bldgs 7% buildings sports 2% 3% 2% Bldgs for housing primary industy Hotels 2% 1% Student Student 0,2% Source: Veidekke’s market data 22 Veidekke's Economic Activity Report March 2018 RESIDENTIAL SCANDINAVIAN RESIDENTIAL HOUSING MARKET HAS PEAKED Residential production*, NOK billion Common denominators: -5% • Good macroeconomy -7% • High production level in Sweden and Norway +10% • Measures regarding credit to households • Improvement in resale market, worsening for new residential housing • Wide variation within the segments *Veidekke’s forecasts for 2018 og 2019 Source: Statistics Norway, DST, Statistics Sweden and Veidekke 23 Veidekke's Economic Activity Report March 2018 RESIDENTIAL SCANDINAVIAN RESIDENTIAL HOUSING MARKET HAS PEAKED Production in various residential segments in Norway, NOK billion per quarter Common denominators: • Good macroeconomy • High production level in Sweden and Norway • Measures regarding credit to households • Improvement in resale market, worsening for new residential housing • Wide variation within the segments Source: Veidekke’s market data 24 Veidekke's Economic Activity Report March 2018 RESIDENTIAL RESIDENTIAL MARKET IN NORWAY – RECENT OBSERVATIONS Resale prices, per square metre Improvement in residential resale prices, as expected Volume of unsold residential units has declined somewhat Sale of new residential units has declined a lot, but the prices have not softened Last 3 months 2017* 2018* 2019* Oslo 0 % -11 % -2 % 1 % Bergen -1 % 0 % 8 % 2 % Trondheim 0 % 2 % 4 % 2 % Stavanger -2 % -2 % 6 % 2 % Source: Property Development Norway and Veidekke * Growth December–December 25 Veidekke's Economic Activity Report March 2018 RESIDENTIAL RESIDENTIAL MARKET IN NORWAY – RECENT OBSERVATIONS Improvement in residential resale prices, as expected Volume of unsold residential units has declined somewhat Sale of new residential units has declined a lot, but the prices have not softened 26 Veidekke's Economic Activity Report March 2018 RESIDENTIAL RESIDENTIAL MARKET IN NORWAY – EXPECTATIONS FOR 2018 AND 2019 Apartment and small house starts, on a revolving 12-month basis, total number of units Adjusted downwards from the previous Economic Activity Report 30–40% decline
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