(CPC) Outreach Journal #1102

USAF Counterproliferation Center (CPC) Outreach Journal

Issue No. 1102, 14 February 2014 Welcome to the CPC Outreach Journal! As part of the CPC’s mission to develop Air Force, DoD, and other USG leaders to advance the state of knowledge, policy, and practices within strategic defense issues involving nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons, we offer the government and civilian community a source of contemporary discussions on unconventional weapons. These discussions include news articles, papers, and other information sources that address issues pertinent to the U.S. national security community. It is our hope that this information resources will help enhance the overall awareness of these important national security issues and lead to the further discussion of options for dealing with the potential use of unconventional weapons. The CPC is seeking submissions for its annual General Charles A. Horner award, which honors the best original writing on issues relating to Air Force counter-WMD and nuclear enterprise operations. The deadline for submissions is March 31, 2014. For more information, please visit our web-site. The following news articles, papers, and other information sources do not necessarily reflect official endorsement of the Air University, U.S. Air Force, or Department of Defense. Reproduction for private use or commercial gain is subject to original copyright restrictions. All rights are reserved.

FEATURED ITEM: “Statement for the Record: Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community, for Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.” James R. Clapper, Director of National Intelligence, 31 pages, January 29, 2014. http://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Intelligence%20Reports/2014%20WWTA%20%20SFR_SSCI_29_Jan.pdf

Outreach Journal Feedback or sign-up request: [email protected] Return to Top U.S. NUCLEAR WEAPONS 1. Air Force Implements Program to Allow Missileers to Identify Problems 2. Investigators Head to Minot AFB for Bottom-Up Review of Nuke Force

U.S. ARMS CONTROL 1. US Violates Nuclear Arms Treaty

ASIA/PACIFIC 1. In Cross-Strait War China will Use EMP Weapons against US: Report 2. N. Korea Ready for Atomic Test, yet No Imminent Sign: Seoul's Defense Chief 3. US Spy Chief Warns of North Korea Missile Threat 4. China Shows New Mobile ICBM on Internet 5. North and South Korea Hold High-Level Meeting 6. Institute: More Digging at NKorea Nuke Test Site 7. Japan May Allow U.S. to Bring in Nuke Weapons in Emergency: Minister 8. NK Playing Nuclear Card: Experts

EUROPE/RUSSIA 1. Dialogue between Russia and NATO on Missile Defense Exhausted – Russian Diplomat 2. Trident Fleet's Future Needs more Debate, Independent Report says 3. Russia Boasts its Nuclear Weapons are Second to None

INDIA/PAKISTAN 1. Pakistan Not Giving Saudi Arabia Nuke Technology: FO

COMMENTARY 1. How Missile Defense Can Protect Us From Another 9/11 2. Six Steps to a Done Deal on Nuclear Iran 3. The Nuclear Treaty Russia Won't Stop Violating 4. Time to START Over on Missile Defense 5. Mounting Threats Demand Missile Defense 6. Did Russia Violate the INF Treaty?

National Journal Air Force Implements Program to Allow Missileers to Identify Problems By Global Security Newswire Staff February 7, 2014 The U.S. Air Force has begun encouraging strategic-missile crews to bring forward mission concerns amid a Pentagon probe of the entire nuclear arena. The newly established Force Improvement Program is "an aggressive, action-oriented effort with the goal of making rapid and substantial change to the ICBM mission," states a Thursday release from the Air Force Global Strike Command, which oversees all U.S. intercontinental ballistic missiles and heavy bombers. In recent months, there have been numerous reports about problems with professionalism and ethics among some of the officers tasked with operating the U.S. arsenal of approximately 450 Minuteman 3 silo-based ballistic missiles. Known issues include widespread cheating at a Montana base on an exam needed to maintain missile- launch certification; some missileers napping while on alert duty with the blast doors open, a violation of security rules; and an investigation into drug possession by some Global Strike Command officers. A number of former and current nuclear-missile officers have said there are serious problems with low morale across the mission area, with a number of crew members concerned the job has become a career-ending backwater. They have reported feeling pressure from above to score 100 percent on proficiency tests.

Stars and Stripes – Washington, D.C. Investigators Head to Minot AFB for Bottom-Up Review of Nuke Force By Jon Harper, Stars and Stripes February 12, 2014 WASHINGTON — A major examination of the Air Force’s scandal-ridden intercontinental ballistic missile force kicked off Wednesday, the commander of Air Force Global Strike Command said. A 65-member investigative team composed of Air Force, Navy and civilian experts is traveling to Minot Air Force Base, N.D., to begin a bottom-up review of the ICBM force and look for ways to improve it. Missileers, ICBM support personnel, nuclear bomber crew members, Global Strike Command personnel, sailors from the Navy nuclear enterprise, and outside business consultants from Executive Leadership Group, Inc. will be part of the team. They will talk to junior officers and enlisted personnel as well as their families at all three ICBM bases to discuss their concerns and determine what the Air Force should do to address them, Lt. Gen. Stephen Wilson told an audience at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank in Washington. The probe was triggered by embarrassing revelations about the Air Force’s ICBM arm. In January, 92 nuclear missile launch officers at Malmstrom Air Force Base, Mont. were implicated in a cheating scandal related to monthly proficiency tests. On top of that, 11 servicemembers within the Air Force nuclear enterprise were found to be involved in an illegal narcotics ring. The investigative team will focus on things that detract from mission effectiveness and morale of airmen. “We’re going to look at culture and determine do we have an integrity issue and what are those obstacles that we need to overcome in terms of mission and manning and resources and those other things we may have out there,” Wilson said. “The work they’re going to accomplish I think will touch every aspect of the ICBM mission, and I think we’ll have the opportunity to shape that for the next generation.” The group will brief Wilson on their findings at the end of the month. Another Air Force investigation of the training, testing and evaluation at the bases is nearing completion, Wilson said. Lt. Gen. Michael Holmes, the vice commander at Air Education and Training Command, is leading the investigation. His report is due by the end of the month. Issue No.1102, 14 February 2014 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Center| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CPC Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 3 USAF Counterproliferation Center CPC Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama Air Force leaders have said that those involved in the scandals will be held accountable, and senior officers might be held responsible as well. When asked if the Air Force still had confidence in the commander of the 341st Missile Wing at Malmstrom, Col. Robert Stanley, Wilson demurred, saying it was premature to comment on the status of any particular individual. Stanley was nominated for the rank of brigadier general last month, before the scandals broke. The Air Force and Navy are also conducting a broader 60-day review of the entire U.S. nuclear enterprise which was mandated by Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel in the wake of the scandals. The Air Force has been directed to present an action plan to address the problems examined in the review. Neither Wilson nor Air Force Secretary Deborah James, who also spoke at the event, would provide any insights into preliminary findings. http://www.stripes.com/news/us/investigators-head-to-minot-afb-for-bottom-up-review-of-nuke-force-1.267294 Return to Top

FARS News Agency – Iran Saturday, February 08, 2014 US Violates Nuclear Arms Treaty TEHRAN (FNA) - The United States successfully tested the B-61 bomb, which is in violation of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) for nuclear disarmament. According to the National Nuclear Security Administration, the United States successfully tested the B-61 nuclear bomb. The test was conducted on Tuesday by the Los Alamos and Sandia national laboratories, and the test was meant to verify how a new model of the B-61 bomb would work under routine conditions or accident scenarios, according to the NNSA. The analysis “is a significant achievement and gives us confidence in our ability to move forward with our efforts to increase the safety and security of the bomb,” Don Cook, NNSA Deputy Administrator for Defense Programs, said. Furthermore, the analysis included tests for a gravity nuclear bomb, called the MOD-12. The work on the MOD-12 has been ongoing for two years, and is aimed at keeping the B-61 bombs safe, and ready to use if necessary. From the NNSA website, “This is also the first test of the integrated component and sub-system hardware, including the Tail Kit Assembly provided by the US Air Force, of the B61-12 test unit. The test series included subassembly and system‐level mass properties measurements, as well as shock and vibration testing. With the incorporation of an Air Force Tail Kit Assembly, the B61-12 will replace the existing B61-3, -4, -7 and -10 bombs. Moreover, fielding the B61-12 enables the retirement of the B83, the last US megaton class weapon, in the mid-to- late 2020s. The “Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons” says that member States should be disarming their nuclear weapons, not restoring, rebuilding, arming, and testing them. This test seems to be in direct contradiction to the Treaty, at a time when the US is engaged with measures to prevent Iran from enriching its uranium. http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13921119000663 Return to Top

Want China Times – Taiwan In Cross-Strait War China will Use EMP Weapons against US: Report Staff Reporter February 9, 2014

Yonhap News Agency – South Korea N. Korea Ready for Atomic Test, yet No Imminent Sign: Seoul's Defense Chief February 10, 2014 By Kim Eun-jung SEOUL, Feb. 10 (Yonhap) -- North Korea appears ready to conduct its fourth nuclear test, but no imminent signs have been detected at its main site on its northeastern tip, South Korea's defense chief said Monday. During a parliamentary interpellation session, Kim Kwan-jin said Pyongyang has prepared for an underground nuclear test at the Punggye-ri site, which was used for the third atomic test a year ago, and has taken "initial steps" for a missile launch at its northwest test site in Tongchang-ri. "These things (the nuclear test and the missile launch) depend on the decision by the North Korean leadership. As seen in the past, the long-range missile test and the nuclear test are connected to each other," Kim told lawmakers. "We are closely watching (the North Korean military) to prepare against any provocations." The communist state is known to have tested an engine for its KN-08 long-range missile just before last year's atomic test, which is seen as efforts to master the technology to build a nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missile. According to the National Intelligence Service in October, Pyongyang is believed to have conducted several missile engine tests at the Tongchang-ri site last year and has been renovating the test facility since May 2013.

The London Times – U.K. US Spy Chief Warns of North Korea Missile Threat By Michael Evans February 10, 2014 North Korea has taken the first steps to deploying a road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile that could reach the United States, America’s top spy chief has warned. James Clapper, the director of US national intelligence, revealed in an unclassified worldwide threat assessment that the KN-08 missile, also known as the Hwasong-13, had yet to be flight-tested. But “North Korea has already taken initial steps towards fielding this system”, he said. The long-range missile is believed to have a potential range of 5,500 kilometres (3,430 miles) which puts Alaska in the firing line. Although there has been some scepticism among America’s leading North Korea watchers over the capability of the KN-08, the statement by Mr Clapper, based on up-to-date analysis by the CIA and other US intelligence agencies, underlines the growing fear that the unpredictable regime in Pyongyang is pushing ahead with its intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) programme. North Korea displayed six KN-08 missiles, carried by huge transporter vehicles at a parade in Pyongyang in April, 2012. But independent missile experts in the US claimed the ones on show in the parade were just mock-ups, not real weapons. However, Robert Gates, when he was US Defence Secretary, reported to Congress that North Korea was developing such a missile. Mr Clapper’s confirmation that the KN-08 was now moving into its initial stages of deployment appeared to dismiss the sceptics, although until the missile has been flight-tested, its capabilities remain unproven. Any move to test the ICBM would be condemned by the US and the international community as a deliberate provocation. North Korea’s missile development project and its nuclear weapons programme are monitored by American surveillance satellites and also by the US Air Force’s U2 spy planes and long-range Global Hawk drones. To combat the threat of a missile attack from North Korea, and also from Iran, the US has built up a network of ground-based anti-missile interceptors in Alaska and California, as well as medium-range weapons on warships. However, flight tests of the ground-based systems have often failed. The last successful intercept of a mock warhead in space took place on December 5, 2008. The last three tests failed. The cost of the missile defence programme is estimated to be nearly $41 billion through to 2017. In November last year, Admiral Samuel Locklear, head of US Pacific Command, said he took the threat of North Korea’s work on strategic ballistic missiles seriously, regardless of their current capabilities. “For our military planning perspective, when I see the KN-08 road-mobile missiles that appear in a North Korean military parade, I am bound to take that seriously, not only for the [Korean] peninsula but also the region as well as my own homeland,” he said. Admiral Locklear told the Foreign Press Centre in Washington: “Whether they are real or not, or whether they have the capability or not, the North Korean regime wants us to think they do, and so we plan for that.” Issue No.1102, 14 February 2014 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Center| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CPC Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 6 USAF Counterproliferation Center CPC Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/public/article4001827.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2014_02_10 Return to Top

The Washington Free Beacon – Washington, D.C. China Shows New Mobile ICBM on Internet Photo reportedly shows missile leaving manufacturing plant By Bill Gertz February 10, 2014 China’s military recently disclosed a new photo of its longest-range mobile intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), a key element of Beijing’s large-scale strategic nuclear buildup. The photograph of the missile reportedly leaving a manufacturing plant in China was posted online Jan. 31 in what a military enthusiast website stated was the transfer of the missile from a factory to a military unit. The photograph shows the mobile missile covered in blue tarp and escorted by security police from the factory. The Chinese military frequently discloses such images online as part of efforts to highlight its nuclear forces, among the most secret elements of Beijing’s military forces. According to the online posting by a user identified only as “witten,” the missile was described as the Second Artillery Corps’ Dong Feng-41 (DF-41) ICBM. The bulletin board stated that the missile is considered China’s SS-27 ICBM, a reference to Russia’s road-mobile Topol-M missile. The user stated that the 16-wheeled transporter erector launcher and missile was concealed by the tarp in order to conceal its “infrared defense capabilities.” The online report also said the DF-41 is “lower to the ground and shorter” than the SS-27 and was adapted to transit on Chinese “mountain terrain, rail and road tunnels.” According to the post, the lower ground profile allows the missile to “to move from tunnel to tunnel during the gap when satellites are out of range”—a reference to China’s 3,000 miles of underground nuclear tunnels and production facilities for nuclear forces. The underground nuclear network was disclosed two years ago as part of a Georgetown University arms control project that labeled the system “the Great Underground Wall” of China’s nuclear facilities. Disclosure of the missile photo came two weeks after the Washington Free Beacon was the first to report on Dec. 17 that China had conducted a second flight of the DF-41. The new missile is considered a major step forward in China’s strategic nuclear arsenal. The missile is difficult to track because of its mobility. It also is assessed by U.S. intelligence agencies to be outfitted with up to 10 multiple, independently targetable reentry vehicles capable of reaching the United States. The flight test was monitored by U.S. intelligence agencies from a launch at the Wuzhai missile launch center in Shanxi province, according to U.S. officials. An earlier flight test took place July 24, 2012. The new mobile missile is estimated to have a range of between 6,835 and 7,456 miles. The Pentagon has yet to list the DF-41 as part of the Chinese strategic arsenal, currently made up of a number of older silo-based missiles and newer DF-31 and DF-31A mobile missiles. The Air Force National Air and Space Intelligence Center in a report made public in May did not name the DF-41 but referred to the development of a new long-range ICBM with multiple warheads.

London Daily Telegraph – U.K. North and South Korea Hold High-Level Meeting The meeting was requested by North Korea, which has launched a recent charm offensive after raising tensions last spring Associated Press (AP) 12 February 2014 Senior officials from the rival Koreas have met at a border village, their highest-level talks in years and a potential signal that Pyongyang wants better ties and the resumption of lucrative cooperative projects. Seoul officials said the meeting was requested by North Korea, which has launched a recent charm offensive after raising tensions last spring with repeated threats to fire nuclear-tipped missiles against Seoul and Washington. Later this month, the two Koreas are to hold reunions of families separated since the 1950-53 Korean War. It would be the first such reunions in more than three years. The meeting began with no fixed agenda, but South Korea wants to discuss ways to make the reunions run smoothly and whether to pursue them regularly, according to Seoul's Unification Ministry, which is responsible for ties with North Korea. The details of Wednesday's closed-door meetings weren't immediately available. North Korea cancelled planned reunions at the last minute in September, and has recently threatened to scrap this month's reunions because of upcoming US-South Korean military drills, which it says are preparations for an invasion. But outside analysts say it's unlikely that North Korea will halt the reunions this time because it needs improved ties with South Korea to help attract foreign investment and aid.

Seattle Post Intelligencer – Seattle, WA Institute: More Digging at NKorea Nuke Test Site By MATTHEW PENNINGTON, Associated Press (AP) Thursday, February 13, 2014 WASHINGTON (AP) — A U.S. research institute said Thursday that North Korea has accelerated excavation at a remote mountain site used for underground nuclear test explosions. The U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, however, does not see signs of an imminent test. It says that the North likely started work on a new tunnel at the northeastern test site at Punggye-ri last May. It estimates that the pile of earth excavated from it has doubled since the start of the year. The findings are based on commercial satellite photographs, the latest taken Feb. 3. The analysis was provided to The Associated Press ahead of publication Thursday on the institute's website, 38 North. North Korea has conducted its three previous nuclear explosions at Punggye-ri, the latest in February 2013. In Seoul on Thursday, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and his South Korean counterpart warned North Korea against any possible aggression amid mixed signals from the North over returning to denuclearization talks and improved ties with the South. The high tension that ensued after last February's test has eased, and North Korea has signaled its willingness to hold dialogue. But the immediate prospects for diplomacy remain uncertain as the North objects to upcoming U.S.- South Korea military exercises, and as the authoritarian government of young leader Kim Jong Un appears to press on with nuclear and missile development. 38 North says that North Korea probably has two other tunnels already complete at Punggye-ri. The entrances of those tunnels are in shadow and not visible in the latest overhead images — underscoring the limitations on what Issue No.1102, 14 February 2014 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Center| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CPC Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 9 USAF Counterproliferation Center CPC Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama can be gleaned about the North's plans, particularly when the crucial activity takes place underground, out of view. According to the analysis, indications that another test is imminent would become visible between six and eight weeks before an explosion. This week, South Korea's defense minister, Kim Kwan-jin, told lawmakers in Seoul that North Korea appears ready to conduct its fourth nuclear test, but they have not detected signs that a test is imminent, the Yonhap news agency reported. "North Korea is clearly keeping all of its options open for the future," said Joel Wit, a former State Department official and editor of 38 North. "There is no evidence to suggest that Pyongyang is preparing for another nuclear test but if a decision were made tomorrow, it could conduct a blast probably by late March or April." The analysis says the amount of earth heaped near the new tunnel suggests a tunnel of around 1,000 meters in length has been dug into the mountainside, but acknowledges that only a rough estimate can be made from a satellite image. Mining carts can be seen on the tracks to the earth pile, it says. http://www.seattlepi.com/news/article/Institute-More-digging-at-NKorea-nuke-test-site-5231842.php Return to Top

Mainichi Daily News – Mainichi, Japan February 14, 2014 Japan May Allow U.S. to Bring in Nuke Weapons in Emergency: Minister TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan may allow the United States to bring nuclear weapons into the country in an emergency that threatens the safety of Japanese citizens, Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida indicated Friday. Speaking at a session of a Diet committee, Kishida outlined certain exceptions under Japan's long-held principles of not possessing, producing or allowing nuclear weapons on its territory. The Cabinet of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has maintained the position held by the previous government, Kishida said in response to questions from Katsuya Okada, a former foreign minister and senior lawmaker of the main opposition Democratic Party of Japan. Okada in 2010 led a probe by the DPJ-led government, disclosing Japan and the United States signed secret pacts during the Cold War era, including an agreement under which Tokyo would allow U.S. nuclear-armed vessels to make port calls in Japan. Kishida told the House of Representatives' Budget Committee that he adhered to an earlier account made by Okada that whether the government would "adamantly observe the (non-nuclear) principles despite threats to people's safety depends on the decision of the administration in power." "The future cannot be determined in advance," Kishida also cited Okada as saying previously, suggesting the United States could bring nuclear weapons into Japan in emergencies. In a relevant move, Abe admitted last month it was a "mistake" that the previous governments under his Liberal Democratic Party had continued to deny the existence of the Japan-U.S. secret pacts, which had been declassified in the United States. http://mainichi.jp/english/english/newsselect/news/20140214p2g00m0dm094000c.html Return to Top

The Korea Times – South Korea February 14, 2014

The Voice of Russia – Russia 10 February 2014 Dialogue between Russia and NATO on Missile Defense Exhausted – Russian Diplomat The refusal of the US to put the missile defense agreements on paper, in particular concerning the locations of the missile defense objects, the number and speed of interceptor missiles, would negate the possibility of reaching any agreement with Russia, Russia's permanent representative to NATO Alexander Grushko said. Issue No.1102, 14 February 2014 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Center| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CPC Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 11 USAF Counterproliferation Center CPC Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama "We expect these assurances, which are given to us verbally at the political level, to be codified in the form of a reliable legal guarantees using specific military-technical terms,” Russia – 24 TV channel quotes Grushko. "We are talking about the locations of missile equipment, the speed and number of interceptors, the location of the detection systems, and many other things. If our partners are not ready to give us this information, then we have no chance to come to an agreement, I do not see any possibility of doing this,” Grushko said. According to his opinion, "there are no improvements" in the dialogue on missile defense between Russia and NATO. "Such an expression is not very diplomatic in style, but, nevertheless, it is obvious that the negotiating resource on the track of Russia -NATO negotiations is exhausted," the permanent representative said. "We can go around in circle, convene meetings, but if we fail to resolve the fundamental issue of providing reliable legal guarantees of non-direction of the US and NATO missile system against Russian forces of nuclear deterrence, we can expect no improvements," Grushko said. Voice of Russia, RIA Novosti http://voiceofrussia.com/2014_02_10/Dialogue-between-Russia-and-NATO-on-missile-defense-exhausted- Grushko-6198/ Return to Top

The London Guardian – U.K. Trident Fleet's Future Needs more Debate, Independent Report says Nuclear Education Trust says Britain's nuclear weapons are irrelevant to existing or foreseeable threats by foreign states By Richard Norton-Taylor Monday, 10 February 2014 Britain's nuclear weapons are irrelevant to any existing and foreseeable threats posed by foreign states and there is an urgent need for a wider and more informed public and parliamentary debate about their use, according to an authoritative independent report to be published on Tuesday . There must be a much deeper debate about whether to retain or modernise the Trident nuclear ballistic missile fleet given its expense – estimated to be be £100bn over its lifetime – at a time of austerity, and the risks of accident and proliferationit creates, it adds. "Britain's nuclear weapons should be subject to the same cost-effectiveness test and public scrutiny that all public expenditure has to be subjected to," says the report by the Nuclear Education Trust, an independent charity. Its report, drawn up after consulting a wide range of defence experts, including former defence secretaries and military chiefs, questions the legality of the government's plans to replace the existing Trident submarine fleet given Britain's nuclear non-proliferation treaty obligations. And it says that nuclear weapons, which were not scrutinised in the last Strategic Defence and Security Review in 2010, must be included in the next review due after the general election in 2015. "Nuclear weapons represent a twentieth-century failure: they are the cold war's unfinished business which should be solved by this generation," says the report. It urges the government to attend an international conference in Mexico later this month on the humantiarian impact of nuclear weapons. The trust's report coincides with a separate study by Scientists for Global Responsibility (SGR), a British advocacy group, which revealed on Monday that UK government spending on research and development for nuclear weapons amounts to more than £320m a year.

Xinhua News – China Russia Boasts its Nuclear Weapons are Second to None February 13, 2014 MOSCOW, Feb. 12 (Xinhua) -- Russia's nuclear capabilities are the most modern in the world, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu claimed Wednesday. "Our country's nuclear shield has still been powerful and strong. We do everything for that," Shoigu told students at the Federal Siberian University in the city of Krasnoyatsk, adding that Russia possesses several thousand warplanes and military helicopters, and cutting-edge air defense and anti-missile systems. "No one has more advanced and so high-capacity systems," he assured, noting that Russian weapons enjoy high demand on the global arms market. Russia occupies the second place on these markets, he added. According to Shoigu, Russia has been completing the construction of more military enterprises, mentioning Krasnoyarsk among the regions where some of these plants are located. "Starting the next year, we will be producing very serious weapons here," Shoigu said. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2014-02/13/c_126123836.htm Return to Top

FARS News Agency – Iran Saturday, February 08, 2014 URGENT: Iran Sends Warships to US Maritime Borders Issue No.1102, 14 February 2014 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Center| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CPC Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 13 USAF Counterproliferation Center CPC Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama TEHRAN (FNA) - Senior Iranian Navy commanders announced on Saturday that the country has sent several fleets of warships to the US maritime borders. "The Iranian Army's naval fleets have already started their voyage towards the Atlantic Ocean via the waters near South Africa," Commander of Iran's Northern Navy Fleet Admiral Afshin Rezayee Haddad announced on Saturday. The admiral, who is also the commander of the Iranian Army's 4th Naval Zone said, "Iran's military fleet is approaching the United States' maritime borders, and this move has a message." In September 2012, Iran's Navy Commander Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari reiterated Iran's plans for sailing off the US coasts to counter the US presence in its waters in the Persian Gulf. Sayyari had earlier informed of Tehran's plans to send its naval forces to the Atlantic to deploy along the US marine borders, and in September 2012 he said that this would happen "in the next few years". The plan is part of Iran's response to Washington's beefed up naval presence in the Persian Gulf. The US Navy's 5th fleet is based in Bahrain - across the Persian Gulf from Iran - and the US has conducted two major maritime war games in the last two years. In September 2011, Sayyari had announced that the country planned to move vessels into the Atlantic Ocean to start a naval buildup "near maritime borders of the United States". "Like the arrogant powers that are present near our maritime borders, we will also have a powerful presence close to the American marine borders," Sayyari said. Speaking at a ceremony marking the 31st anniversary of the start of the 1980-1988 war with Iraq, Sayyari gave no details of when such a deployment could happen or the number or type of vessels to be used. Sayyari had first announced in July, 2011 that Iran was going to send "a flotilla into the Atlantic". The Iranian navy has been developing its presence in international waters since 2010, regularly launching vessels in the Indian Ocean and the Gulf of Aden to protect Iranian ships from Somali pirates operating in the area. http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13921119001013 Return to Top

Times of Israel – Israel Iranian TV Airs Simulated Bombing of Tel Aviv, US Aircraft Carrier Clip shows simulated strikes on Ben Gurion Airport, Haifa, USS Abraham Lincoln in retaliation for hypothetical attack on Iran BY ILAN BEN ZION February 8, 2014 Iranian state TV on Friday ran a documentary featuring a computerized video of Iran’s drones and missiles bombing Tel Aviv, Haifa, Ben Gurion Airport and the Dimona nuclear reactor in a hypothetical retaliation for an Israeli or American strike on the Islamic Republic. Iranian drones and missiles are also shown carrying out simulated strikes on the American aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, downing American aircraft and striking American military targets in the Persian Gulf. The clip was broadcast amid a clear escalation of anti-American rhetoric and even action by Iran: On Saturday, an Iranian admiral announced that Iran had despatched warships to the North Atlantic, while Iran’s spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei denounced the Americans as liars who, while professing to be friends of Iran, would bring down his regime if they could. He also said it was “amusing” that the US thought Iran would reduce its “defensive capabilities.”

The Voice of Russia – Russia 8 February 2014 Tehran Ready to Answer All UN Nuclear Agency Concerns - Iranian Official An Iranian official has said Iran will answer all questions raised by UN atomic energy inspectors who are in Tehran to seek agreement on investigating alleged atomic weapons projects. The remarks were made by Behrouz Kamalvandi, spokesman for Iran's atomic energy organization, to the IRNA news agency on Friday. The talks started on Saturday. Western diplomats said they were hopeful Iran would agree to allow inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to investigate alleged atomic weapons projects. Iran had for two years rejected calls to allow the IAEA to investigate suspicious projects, including visits to research and development sites. That position changed under a November agreement with six world powers. One point of contention in the talks is gaining access to the Parchin military facility where the agency suspects Tehran may have engaged in atomic weapons development research. A spokesman for the IAEA would not confirm whether the talks would continue on Sunday.

FARS News Agency – Iran Sunday, February 09, 2014 Iran, IAEA Agree on 7 New Topics for Cooperation TEHRAN (FNA) - The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on Sunday released a 7-article memorandum of understanding (MoU) on continued cooperation in the future. The AEOI-IAEA agreement has been reached after two days of intensive talks in Tehran. IAEA Deputy Head Thro Varioranteh appreciated Iran for its cooperation with the IAEA and voiced satisfaction with the current trend of collaborations, and said IAEA Director General Yukio Amano will consider the same in his upcoming report to the IAEA’s Board of Governors. The new agreement contains Iran's voluntary cooperation untouched in the November Iran-IAEA agreement, known as the Tehran Declaration, in the form of the joint plan of action signed in late November between Iran and the Group 5+1 (the five permanent UN Security Council members plus Germany). The new agreement includes Tehran's voluntary cooperation in: 1- Providing (the IAEA) with administered access to Yazd’s Saqand Mine and the information agreed by the two sides, 2- Providing (the IAEA) with administered access to Ardakan enrichment facility the information agreed by the two sides, 3- Submitting updated design information questionnaire (DIQ) of Arak’s IR-40 reactor, 4- Adopting measures to materialize safeguard approach for Arak’s IR-40 reactor, 5- Arranging technical visit to Lashkarabad Laser Center and providing (the IAEA) with the information agreed by the two sides, 6- Providing source material, that has not reached the necessary composition and purity for making fuel or enrichment, including import of such material to Iran and extraction of uranium from phosphate by Iran, 7- Providing information and explanations to the IAEA to evaluate Iran’s statement on the need or application of Electron Bernstein waves (EBW) (new generation of safe fuses) Iran has agreed to take the voluntary measures by May 14, 2014. The AEOI and IAEA also issued a joint statement after their bilateral talks. The statement says "the Islamic Republic of Iran and the IAEA held constructive technical meetings on February 1-2 within the framework of cooperation that was agreed by both sides in November." It says the two sides "reviewed progress in implementing the action plan as agreed by them three months ago" and "Iran has implemented the practical steps foreseen in the agreement". A team of high-ranking officials of the IAEA arrived in Tehran on Friday to hold talks with Iranian officials.

Press TV – Iran Parchin Access Not in New Iran-IAEA Deal: AEOI Sunday, February 9, 2014 Iran says inspection of the Parchin military site is not included in its new agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Following two days of “constructive technical” talks in Tehran, Iran and the UN nuclear agency issued a joint statement on Sunday on further bilateral cooperation. Iran and the IAEA reached an agreement regarding seven practical steps which Tehran will carry out by May 15. “Inspection of Parchin is not within the framework of these seven steps,” Behrouz Kamalvandi, the spokesman for the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI), told reporters in Tehran on Sunday. Iran has vehemently dismissed allegations about clandestine nuclear activities at its Parchin military site. The IAEA inspectors have visited the site twice before. Given Iran’s cooperation, the country is looking forward to a "positive" review by the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Yukiya Amano, Kamalvandi added. “We expect that we will witness a positive report by the International Atomic Energy Agency’s director general to the Board of Governors considering the data provided by the Islamic Republic of Iran and the climate of cooperation,” Kamalvandi said. “We used terms that carry a specific load of meaning, such as managed access. So, the agency’s inspectors are not due to meet with our scientists,” he added. “We still insist on managed access as has been the same from the beginning,” the AEOI spokesman pointed out. Iran and the IAEA signed a joint statement in November 2013 to outline a roadmap on mutual cooperation on certain outstanding nuclear issues. Under the deal, Iran agreed, on a voluntary basis, to allow IAEA inspectors to visit the Arak heavy water plant and the Gachin uranium mine, south of Iran. The IAEA inspectors visited the Arak heavy water plant on December 8, 2013 as the first step in mutual cooperation under the Iran-IAEA agreement. The IAEA inspectors also made a five-hour visit to the Gachin uranium mine in late January. The agency's safeguards agreement does not require Tehran to authorize IAEA inspections of those sites. The voluntary move is a goodwill gesture on the part of Iran to clear up ambiguities over the peaceful nature of its nuclear energy program. http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2014/02/09/349941/parchin-access-not-in-iraniaea-deal/ Return to Top

Al Jazeera – U.A.E. Khamenei: US Wants Regime Change in Iran Supreme leader strikes harsh note but urges President Rouhani's critics to give him time to pursue engagement policy. Issue No.1102, 14 February 2014 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Center| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CPC Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 17 USAF Counterproliferation Center CPC Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama 09 February 2014 Iran's supreme leader has said the US would overthrow the Iranian government if it could, adding that the country had a "controlling and meddlesome" attitude towards the Islamic Republic. In a speech to mark the 35th anniversary of the 1979 Islamic revolution on Saturday, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that the US is fundamentally Iran's enemy, even as he defended his country's ongoing talks to settle a decade-old dispute about the Islamic Republic's nuclear programme. "American officials publicly say they do not seek regime change in Iran," Khamenei told army officers in Tehran. "That's a lie. They would not hesitate a moment if they could do it." But Iran's most powerful leader also called on critics of President Hassan Rouhani to be fair and give him time, to pursue his policy of engagement with the outside world, including the US and the EU. "No more than a few months have passed since the [Rouhani] government took office," he said in comments posted in his website, leader.ir. "Authorities should be given the opportunity to push forward strongly. Critics should show tolerance towards the government." Earlier this week, Ayatollah Mohammad Taqi Mesbah Yazdi, a prominent religious leader, accused Rouhani of selling Iran's "dignity" under the Geneva deal. Khamenei's support is crucial for Rouhani's diplomatic success in negotiations. Possible motive Khamenei made no direct mention of the talks between Iran and world powers, but he said that in dealing with "enemies", Iran should be prepared to change tactics but not compromise on its main principles. Speaking to Al Jazeera, Sadegh Zibakalam, politics professor at Tehran University, wondered if Khamenei was trying to appease the country's hardliners, who are critical of Rouhani. "Maybe the Supreme Leader, by using those harsh words against the United States, is trying to calm down those hardliners," he said. Khamenei urged Iran not to pin hopes for economic recovery on the sanctions relief from the landmark interim deal signed on November 24. "The only solution to the country's economic problems is to employ [Iran's] infinite domestic capacities, not to pin hopes on the lifting of sanctions," he said. "No expectations from the enemy." The deal is the centerpiece of Rouhani's policy. Iran in January stopped enriching uranium to 20 percent and started neutralising its existing stockpile of that grade, just steps away from weapons material, in order to fulfil commitments reached under the interim deal. In return, the US and the EU simultaneously announced the lifting of sanctions on petrochemical products, insurance, gold and other precious metals, auto industry, passenger plane parts and services. They also plan to release $4.2bn Iranian assets of oil revenues blocked overseas, in eight installments over a period of six months. The first installment of $550m was provided to Iran on February 1. Source: Agencies http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/02/khamenei-says-us-wants-regime-change-iran- 201428125820319836.html Issue No.1102, 14 February 2014 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Center| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CPC Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 18 USAF Counterproliferation Center CPC Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama Return to Top

RIA Novosti – Russian Information Agency Syrian Chemical Disarmament Deadline Realistic – Russian Diplomat 9 February 2014 MOSCOW, February 9 (RIA Novosti) – The deadline for eliminating Syria's entire stockpile of chemical weapons is realistic and there is no need to revise it, Russia’s UN envoy said on Saturday. “Although the initial disarmament schedule was quite ambitious, the deadline of June 30 is quite realistic,” Vitaly Churkin said. In a move that jeopardized the timetable set up by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, Syria has missed the February 5 deadline to give up all the toxic materials it had declared to the world's chemical weapons watchdog. Russia’s UN ambassador said that there were several reasons for the delay, including threats against members of the international disarmament team and other security problems. The operation to destroy Syria’s arsenal of more than 1,000 metric tons of weapons-grade chemicals is due to take place in two stages. The most dangerous material was to have been removed from Syria by December 31, although this deadline was missed as a result of the unstable security situation in the country. It should be destroyed at sea by April, with the rest slated for destruction by June 30. http://en.ria.ru/world/20140209/187343068/Syrian-Chemical-Disarmament-Deadline-Realistic--Russian- Diplomat.html Return to Top

The London Guardian – U.K. Iran Agrees to Explain Nuclear Detonators to IAEA Development marks a step forward in international efforts to settle decade-old dispute over Iran's nuclear programme Reuters in Vienna Sunday, 9 February 2014 The UN nuclear agency said on Sunday that Iran had agreed to start addressing suspicions that it may have worked on designing an atomic weapon, a potential breakthrough in a long-stalled investigation into Tehran's atomic activities. The development - although limited for now - marked a step forward in an international push to settle a decade- old dispute over Iran's nuclear programme. Tehran says this is peaceful, while the west fears that Iran wants to develop atomic arms. The deal could also send a positive signal to separate, high-stakes negotiations between Iran and six world powers which are due to start on 18 February in Vienna, aimed at reaching a broader diplomatic settlement with the Islamic state. Efforts to end years of hostile rhetoric and confrontation that could otherwise trigger a new war in the Middle East gained momentum with last year's election of a relative moderate, Hassan Rouhani, as new Iranian president on a platform to ease Iran's international isolation.

FARS News Agency – Iran Monday, February 10, 2014 Iran Test-Fires New Generation of Laser-Guided, Ballistic Missiles TEHRAN (FNA) - The Iranian Defense Ministry announced on Monday that it has successfully tested two new missiles, including a laser-guided surface-to-surface and air-to-surface missile and a new generation of long-range ballistic missiles carrying Multiple Reentry Vehicle payloads. The ministry said it has successfully tested a new generation of long-range ballistic missiles with Multiple Reentry Vehicle payloads and a laser-guided air-to-surface and surface-to-surface missile named Bina. The missiles were test-fired in a ceremony on the eve of the 35th anniversary of the victory of Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution to mark the occassion. Speaking during the ceremony, Iranian Defense Minister Brigadier General Hossein Dehqan noted that Bina missile is laser-guided and can be fired from aircraft and different ground launch platforms. “This missile (Bina) is capable of precisely hitting important targets, including bridges, tanks, military hardware and command centers of enemies,” the Iranian defense minister said. He enumerated the high-speed in destroying the targets, easy maintenance and high-speed of operation as specifications of Bina missile. The minister further noted Iran's newly developed ballistic missile with MRV payload, and said it has been designed and produced for destroying enemy’s military hardware and all types of enemy military equipment. “Evading enemy’s anti-missile defense systems, the capability of destroying massive targets and destroying multiple targets are specifications of this missile,” the Iranian defense minister said, but did not name the new weapon. The hi-tech weapon is owned only by the major world powers. President Rouhani has congratulated the Supreme Leader, the nation and the military forces on the giant achievement. A Multiple Reentry vehicle payload for a ballistic missile deploys multiple warheads in a pattern against a single target. (As opposed to Multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle, which deploys multiple warheads against multiple targets.) The advantage of an MRV over a single warhead is that the damage produced in the center of the pattern is far greater than the damage possible from any single warhead in the MRV cluster, this makes for an efficient area attack weapon. Also, the sheer number of Warheads make interception by Anti-ballistic missiles unlikely.

Trajectory and Targeting of Ballistic Missiles with MRV Payloads

Improved warhead designs allow smaller warheads for a given yield, while better electronics and guidance systems allowed greater accuracy. As a result MIRV technology has proven more attractive than MRV for advanced nations. Because of the larger amount of nuclear material consumed by MRVs and MIRVs, single warhead missiles are more attractive for nations with less advanced technology. The United States deployed an MRV payload on the Polaris A-3. The Soviet Union deployed MRVs on the SS-9 Mod 4 ICBM. Refer to atmospheric reentry for more details. Tehran launched an arms development program during the 1980-88 Iraqi imposed war on Iran to compensate for a US weapons embargo. Since 1992, Iran has produced its own tanks, armored personnel carriers, missiles and fighter planes. Yet, Iranian officials have always stressed that the country's military and arms programs serve defensive purposes and should not be perceived as a threat to any other country. In November, Brigadier General Dehqan announced the successful test-firing of the country’s new air defense system capable of destroying different types of modern fighter jets and drones. “Talash (Struggle) is a mid-range and high-altitude air defense system used to confront the flying targets, including fighter jets and bombers, and is also capable of destroying different helicopters and drones,” Dehqan said in Tehran. “Talash defense system was designed and built to detect and intercept the targets of Sayyad (Hunter) 2 missile (the country's latest home-made missile system with high precision, range and destruction power) to protect the country’s vital and sensitive points against surprise air threats of hi-tech combat fighters,” he added. “Now that it has had successful tests, God willing, its production line will be launched in the near future,” Dehqan said. http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13921121001620 Return to Top

The Jerusalem Post – Israel

RIA Novosti – Russian Information Agency 3rd Batch of Chemical Weapons Taken Out of Syria 10 February 2014 BRUSSELS, February 10 (RIA Novosti) – A third batch of chemical weapons was taken out of Syria on Monday, the global chemical weapons watchdog said.

The Washington Free Beacon – Washington, D.C. White House Draws Red Line on Iranian Ballistic Missile Program WH: ‘This issue will need to be addressed’ By Adam Kredo February 10, 2014 The White House on Monday pushed back against Iran’s efforts to set a “red line” preventing negotiations over its contested ballistic missile program, which has been permitted to continue undeterred under the recently signed interim nuclear accord. One of Iran’s top nuclear negotiators stated early Monday that Iran would under no circumstances negotiate with the West on its ballistic missile program. These remarks were accompanied by the announcement that Tehran had successfully test fired two ballistic missiles, which are the preferred delivery system for nuclear arms. “The defense-related issues are a red line for Iran,” Abbas Araqchi, Iran’s senior negotiator and its deputy foreign minister, was quoted as saying on Monday, just a week before talks are set to resume. “We will not allow such issues to be discussed in future talks.” However, the White House quickly pushed back against the comments, vowing to force the issue during upcoming negotiations and demand that it be resolved under a final deal. “Per the Joint Plan of Action, Iran must address the [United Nations] Security Council resolutions related to its nuclear program before a comprehensive resolution can be reached,” Bernadette Meehan, National Security Council spokesperson, told the Washington Free Beacon. “Among other things, UN Security Council Resolution 1929 prohibits all activities involving ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, including launches,” Meehan said. “So this issue will need to be addressed during the comprehensive discussions.” Issue No.1102, 14 February 2014 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Center| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CPC Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 24 USAF Counterproliferation Center CPC Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama This is one of the first instances of the White House publicly pushing back against Iran’s demands, which have grown increasingly bellicose as the talks proceed. Iran is on course to develop more advanced ballistic missiles, the country’s defense minister was quoted as saying following Monday’s test. “The new generation of ballistic missile with a fragmentation warhead, and a Bina laser-guided surface-to-surface and air-to-surface missile, have been successfully tested,” Defense Minister Hossein Dehgan was quoted as saying in numerous reports. Under new Iran sanctions legislation currently stalled in Congress, Iran would have been subject to immediate and harsh economic penalties for launching a ballistic missile. Wendy Sherman, the U.S.’s top negotiator, admitted during a congressional hearing last week that Iran can continue its ballistic missile work under the interim nuclear deal, which will last for around six months. “It is true that in these first six months we’ve not shut down all of their production of any ballistic missile that could have anything to do with delivery of a nuclear weapon,” Sherman told lawmakers during a hearing on the nuclear deal. “But that is indeed something that has to be addressed as part of a comprehensive agreement.” Sherman’s admission elicited concern from several senators. “Why did you all not in this agreement in any way address the delivery mechanisms, the militarizing of nuclear arms, why was that left off since they [Iran] breached a threshold everyone acknowledges. They can build a bomb. We know that,” said Sen. Bob Corker (R., Tenn.), the committee’s ranking member. “They know that. They have advanced centrifuges. We have a major loophole in the research and development area that everyone acknowledges.” http://freebeacon.com/white-house-draws-red-line-on-iranian-ballistic-missile-program/ Return to Top

Xinhua News – China U.S. Will Not Allow Iran to Acquire Nuclear Weapon: Defense Official February 12, 2014 WASHINGTON, Feb. 11 (Xinhua) -- A senior official of the U.S. Defense Department told Congress on Tuesday that the United States will not allow Iran to build a nuclear weapon, and that if Iran decided to use nuclear talks as a cover for developing one, Washington would be able to detect it. Elissa Slotkin, principal deputy assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, told the House Armed Services Committee that the military remains prepared for all options if Tehran would decide to secretly develop a bomb while engaging in diplomacy. "Any comprehensive agreement that we ever negotiate will emphasize verifiable means," Slotkin said. "And importantly, we remain confident that we could tell if Iran was making a dash toward a weapon, and if that decision was made, it would take at least a year" for a nuclear device to be developed. Over the years, the West has been suspicion about Iran's nuclear program. Last November, Iran reached an agreement with the international community, pledging to temporarily halt some of its nuclear activity in exchange for the lifting of some sanctions. Negotiations are set to resume later this month in Vienna on a comprehensive accord that would ensure Iran does not move forward with a nuclear weapons program. "We are now focused on testing the prospects for a comprehensive nuclear deal based on verifiable actions that convince us and the international community that Iran is not trying to obtain a nuclear bomb," Slotkin said. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2014-02/12/c_126117596.htm

Gulf News.com – U.A.E. Iran Demands to See Secret Nuclear Weapons ‘Proof’ The documents are widely believed to have been supplied by the United States Agence France-Presse (AFP) February 12, 2014 Tehran: Iran said on Wednesday it would not accept long-standing allegations that its nuclear programme once had a military dimension without seeing the secret documents on which the charges are based. “We will not accept any of the (International Atomic Energy) Agency allegations unless its documents are proven and the person who presented them clarifies on what basis we have been accused,” Iran’s nuclear chief Ali Akbar Salehi was quoted as saying by the Mehr news agency. “We told the agency it is not acceptable that you accuse us based on a piece of torn paper submitted by some people.” The IAEA has said documents showing a possible military dimension to Iran’s nuclear programme were presented to it in 2005 by a “member state” and “participants in a clandestine nuclear supply network.” The documents are widely believed to have been supplied by the United States, which suspects Iran of covertly seeking nuclear weapons, charges denied by Tehran. “The authenticity of each allegation should be proven first, then the person who submitted it to the agency should give us the genuine document. When we are assured of the authenticity, then we can talk to the agency,” Salehi said. In May 2008, Iran submitted a 117-page assessment that dismissed the allegations as being based on “forged” documents and “fabricated” data. Iran reached a interim agreement with world powers in November in which it agreed to curb its nuclear activities for six months in exchange for limited sanctions relief, and the two sides plan to resume talks next week on a comprehensive accord. Iran also reached a deal over the weekend with the IAEA in which it agreed to further safeguards to promote transparency, including a promise to clarify its stated need for a specific type of detonator that can be used to spark chain nuclear reactions. Iran said it needed the detonator for conventional military purposes. It appeared to be the first time in years that Tehran had agreed to address the military-related allegations, most of which concern alleged activities prior to 2003. http://gulfnews.com/news/region/iran/iran-demands-to-see-secret-nuclear-weapons-proof-1.1290194 Return to Top

CNN News.com Wednesday, February 12, 2014 OPCW: Only 11% of Chemical Weapons Removed from Syria By Salma Abdelaziz and Jim Sciutto Syria has shipped out 11% of its chemical weapons stockpile - falling far short of the February 5 deadline to have all such arms removed from the country, the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons told CNN Wednesday.

The News International – Karachi, Pakistan Pakistan Not Giving Saudi Arabia Nuke Technology: FO

Forbes.com OPINION/Op-Ed How Missile Defense Can Protect Us From Another 9/11 By Col. Gerald May, Ret. February 7, 2014 This year the U.S. Army will begin final demonstrations of a long-range radar system with a very unwieldy name: the Joint Land Attack Cruise Missile Defense Elevated Netted Sensor System, or JLENS. Installed at the Aberdeen Proving Ground in Maryland, it will also add to existing defenses of Washington and the eastern seaboard from Manhattan to Norfolk. But JLENS is not just a shield against aircraft threats to the National Capitol Region. It can be part of a system that fills gaping holes in the missile defenses of the entire American homeland.

Asia Times Online.com – Hong Kong, China OPINION/Article February 11, 2014 Six Steps to a Done Deal on Nuclear Iran By Joe Cirincione The stakes could not be higher, or the issues tougher, as the world's six major powers and Iran launch talks on February 18 on a final resolution of the Iranian nuclear crisis. The goal "is to reach a mutually agreed long-term comprehensive solution that would ensure Iran's nuclear program will be exclusively peaceful," says the temporary Joint Plan of Action, which calls for six months of negotiations. If talks fail, the prospects of military action and potentially another Middle East conflict soar. Six issues are pivotal to an accord. The terms on each must be accepted by all parties - Iran on one side and Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States on the other – or there is no deal. The Joint Plan notes, "This comprehensive solution would constitute an integrated whole where nothing is agreed until everything is agreed." 1. Limiting uranium enrichment Iran's ability to enrich uranium is at the heart of the international controversy. The process can fuel both peaceful nuclear energy and the world's deadliest weapon. Since 2002, Iran's has gradually built an independent capability to enrich uranium, which it claims is only for medical research and to fuel an energy program. But the outside world has long been suspicious of Tehran's intentions because its program exceeds its current needs. Iran's only nuclear reactor for energy, in the port city of Bushehr, is fueled by the Russian contractor that built it. Centrifuges are the key to enriching uranium. In 2003, Iran had fewer than 200 centrifuges. In 2014, it has approximately 19,000. About 10,000 are now enriching uranium; the rest are installed but not operating. To fuel a nuclear power reactor, centrifuges are used to increase the ratio of the isotope U-235 in natural uranium from less than 1% to between 3% and 5%. But the same centrifuges can also spin uranium gas to 90% purity, the level required for a bomb. Experts differ on how many centrifuges Iran should be allowed to operate. Zero is optimal, but Iran almost certainly will not agree to eliminate totally a program costing billions of dollars over more than a decade. Iranian officials fear the outside world wants Tehran to be dependent on foreign sources of enriched uranium, which could then be used as leverage on Iran - under threat of cutting off its medical research and future nuclear energy independence. Most experts say somewhere between 4,000 and 9,000 operating centrifuges would allow many months of warning time if Iran started to enrich uranium to bomb-grade levels. The fewer centrifuges, the longer Iran would need to "break out" from fuel production to weapons production. So the basic issues are: Can the world's major powers convince Iran to disable or even dismantle some of the operating centrifuges? If so, how low will Iran agree to go? And will Iran agree to cut back enrichment to only one site, which would mean closing the underground facility at Fordow? A deal may generally have to include:  Reducing the number of Iran's centrifuges,  Limiting uranium enrichment to no more than 5%, and  Capping centrifuge capabilities at current levels. In short, as George Shultz and Henry Kissinger say, a deal must "define a level of Iranian nuclear capacity limited to plausible civilian uses and to achieve safeguards to ensure that this level is not exceeded."

Issue No.1102, 14 February 2014 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Center| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CPC Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 30 USAF Counterproliferation Center CPC Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama 2. Preventing a plutonium path Iran's heavy water reactor in Arak, which is unfinished, is another big issue. Construction of this small research reactor began in the 1990s; the stated goal was to produce medical isotopes and up to 40 megawatts of thermal power for civilian use. But the "reactor design appears much better suited for producing bomb-grade plutonium than for civilian uses", warn former secretary of defense William Perry and former Los Alamos Laboratory director Siegfried Hecker. For years, Iranian officials allowed weapons inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN nuclear watchdog, intermittent access to Arak. Inspectors have been granted more access since the Joint Plan of Action went into effect on January 20, but satellite imagery can no longer monitor site activity due to completion of the facility's outer structure. The reactor will be capable of annually producing nine kilograms of plutonium, which is enough material to produce one or two nuclear weapons. However, the reactor is at least a year away from operating, and then it would need to run for 12 to 18 months to generate that much plutonium. Iran also does not have a facility to reprocess the spent fuel to extract the plutonium. In early February, Iranian officials announced they would be willing to modify the design plans of the reactor to allay Western concerns, although they provided no details. 3. Verification The temporary Joint Plan allows more extensive and intrusive inspections of Iran's nuclear facilities. UN inspectors now have daily access to Iran's primary enrichment facilities at the Nantaz and Fordow plants, the Arak heavy water reactor, and the centrifuge assembly facilities. Inspectors are now also allowed into Iran's uranium mines. Over the next six months, negotiations will have to define a reliable long-term inspection system to verify that Iran's nuclear program is used only for peaceful purposes. A final deal will have to further expand inspections to new sites. The most sensitive issue may be access to sites suspected of holding evidence of Iran's past efforts to build an atomic bomb. The IAEA suspects, for example, that Iran tested explosive components needed for a nuclear bomb at Parchin military base. Iran may be forthcoming on inspections. Its officials have long held that transparency - rather than reduction of capabilities - is the key to assuring the world that its program is peaceful. They have indicated a willingness to implement stricter inspections required under the IAEA's Additional Protocol - and maybe even go beyond it. But they are also likely to want more inspections matched by substantial sanctions relief and fewer cutbacks on the numbers of centrifuges in operation. At least four of the six major powers - the United States, Britain, France and Germany - will almost certainly demand both increased inspections and fewer, less capable centrifuges. 4. Clarifying the past The issue is not just Iran's current program and future potential. Several troubling questions from the past must also be answered. The temporary deal created a joint commission to work with the IAEA on past issues, including suspected research on nuclear weapon technologies. Iran denies that it ever worked on nuclear weapons, but the circumstantial evidence about past Iranian experiments is quite strong. Among the issues:  Research on polonium-210, which can be used as a neutron trigger for a nuclear bomb;  Research on a missile re-entry vehicle, which could be used to deliver a nuclear weapon; and  Suspected high-explosives testing, which could be used to compress a bomb core to critical mass. Iran may be reluctant to come clean unless it is guaranteed amnesty for past transgressions - and can find a way to square them with its many vigorous denials. And any suspicions that Iran is lying will undermine even rigorous new inspections that verify Iran's technology is now being used solely for civilian purposes. On February 8, in a potential breakthrough, the IAEA and Iran agreed on specific actions that Iran would take to provide information and explanations of its past activities. "Resolution of these issues will allow the agency to verify the completeness and correctness of Iran's nuclear activities," says Kelsey Davenport of the Arms Control Association, "and help ensure that Tehran is not engaged in undeclared activities." Resolving all past issues before Issue No.1102, 14 February 2014 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Center| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CPC Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 31 USAF Counterproliferation Center CPC Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama a final agreement may prove difficult, however. Negotiations may instead produce a process for eventual resolution. 5. Sanctions relief Iran's primary goal is to get access to some US$100 billion in funds frozen in foreign banks and to end the many sanctions that have crippled the Iranian economy. Since the toughest US sanctions were imposed in mid-2012, Iran's currency and oil exports have both plummeted by some 60%. The temporary Joint Plan of Action says a final agreement will "comprehensively lift UN Security Council, multilateral and national nuclear-related sanctions ... on a schedule to be agreed upon". (It does not, however, address sanctions imposed on other issues, such as support for extremist groups or human rights abuses.) The United States and the Europeans may want to keep some sanctions in place until they are assured that Iran is meeting new obligations. The specter of the US Congress will overshadow negotiations. Its approval will be required to remove the most onerous sanctions imposed over the past five years. "The US Congress will have to allow meaningful sanctions relief to Iran, just as Iran's hard-liners are going to have to be convinced not to stand on principle when it comes to their 'right' to enrich and their demand to have all sanctions lifted," says Brookings Institution scholar Ken Pollack. "The US Congress is going to have to agree to allow Iran's economy to revive and Tehran's hard-liners are going to have to be satisfied with the revival of their economy and some very limited enrichment activity." 6. The long and winding road The final but critical issue is timing: how long is a long-term deal? It will clearly require years to prove Iran is fully compliant. But estimates vary widely from five to 20 years. Another alternative is a series of shorter agreements that build incrementally on one another. For all the big issues ahead, both sides have an interest in negotiating a deal. The world's six major powers want to curtail more of Iran's program, while Iran wants to revive its economy and normalize its international relations. If the negotiators succeed, they will make history. Their failure could open the path to a nuclear-armed Iran or a new war in the Middle East - or both. Joseph Cirincione is president of Ploughshares Fund and author of Nuclear Nightmares: Securing the World before It Is Too Late. http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MID-02-110214.html Return to Top

The Wall Street Journal – New York, NY OPINION/Article The Nuclear Treaty Russia Won't Stop Violating Why has Washington looked the other way as Moscow revived Cold War weaponry? By Keith B. Payne and Mark B. Schneider February 11, 2014 The Reagan administration's 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty is celebrated as the "cornerstone" of nuclear arms control. But Moscow has openly flouted the spirit and apparently the letter of the INF Treaty at least since 2008, signaling that it is determined to regain some of its Cold War nuclear-strike capacity. The INF agreement went where no other nuclear-arms treaty had gone before. Instead of simply limiting weapons numbers, it eliminated the entire class of U.S. and Soviet intermediate range—500 to 5,500 kilometers (or 310 to 3,400 miles)—ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles. The agreement also prohibited their testing, production, possession or deployment. The treaty bans missiles with even the potential for use as intermediate-range weapons, such as the ones with which Russia might target

The Moscow Times – Russia OPINION/Commentary Time to START Over on Missile Defense 12 February 2014 | Issue 5309 By Trent Franks and Doug Lamborn Recent news reports have indicated that the Russian government is considering withdrawing from the new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, or New START, if the U.S. does not halt its continued missile defense program in Europe. It is not very often that two Republican congressmen like us find ourselves in complete agreement with President Vladimir Putin, but on the issue of New START we could not agree more. There are a number of compelling reasons why the U.S. should be happy to withdraw from the treaty. In fact, we believe we should not have agreed to this treaty in the first place, and we supported our fellow Republicans in the Senate who voted against ratifying the treaty in 2010. The treaty essentially cost Russia next to nothing in the form of military concessions, but it required major nuclear capability concessions on the part of the U.S. The New START treaty is itself a Cold War artifact. Yes, Russia and the U.S. have the largest number of nuclear weapons in the world, but other countries like China, India and Pakistan have growing nuclear inventories as well. If the treaty was truly meant to lower nuclear stockpiles, the U.S. should not have been signed the treaty without these other nations participating. The Cold War ended decades ago and our treaties should reflect that simple fact. Rather than recognizing this new reality, Putin is apparently considering withdrawing from the treaty because of the deployment of missile defenses in Europe by the U.S. and our allies. This is an odd reason to withdraw from the treaty, particularly since Russia is actively deploying its own missile defense systems. What's more, U.S. missile defenses are not aimed at intercepting Russian nuclear weapons and have no capability of weakening Russia's nuclear deterrence. It is simply inconsistent for the Kremlin to argue that NATO missile defense installations are grounds for withdrawing from the New START treaty, while Russian missile defense systems are acceptable. In fact, Russia reportedly even has nuclear-tipped missile defense interceptors. If anyone should be withdrawing from the New START treaty because of missile defense, it should be the U.S. Moreover, Russia has a poor history of complying with previous and standing arms control treaties, raising doubts it will comply with New START. We on the Armed Services Committee have strong reason to believe that Russia has been violating the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty of 1987 for years and that the Obama administration has known about it. Further, Russia may already be in violation of agreements related to tactical nuclear weapons as well, and the U.S. intelligence community has already charged Russian entities with providing ballistic missile technology to the world's leading sponsors of terrorism, Iran and North Korea. But perhaps Putin is threatening to withdraw from the New START treaty to deter the U.S. from deploying more missile defense installations in Europe. We would like to remind Mr. Putin that the U.S. will never yield in our commitment to protect our allies and our assets abroad from an increasingly capable and technologically advanced

The Edmond Sun – Edmond, OK OPINION/Commentary Mounting Threats Demand Missile Defense By Rick Nelson, Special to The Edmond Sun Wednesday, February 12, 2014 EDMOND — The South Korean government just confirmed what the world hoped was a baseless rumor. North Korea has indeed restarted its Yongbyon plutonium reactor and is now actively generating nuclear energy from the facility. Refined plutonium generated by such a reactor can be used in the development of long-range nuclear weapons — a decades-long goal of the Kim regime. This development serves as a stark reminder that America must continue to invest in missile defense. North Korea remains bent on creating and possibly even launching ordnance capable of hitting the United States and its allies. In light of the regime’s longstanding propensity for erratic and highly irrational behavior, this goal clearly demands an American response. But diplomacy has repeatedly failed to dissuade the regime. America is left to dictate the future of its own security. Fortunately, modern missile defense technologies are capable of defending our nation against this mounting threat. America’s missile defense program is the brainchild of Ronald Reagan. When he announced the initiative in 1983, critics dismissed it as pure science fiction, a “Star Wars” fantasy. But since then, missile defense technologies have proven themselves time and again. These systems work. The first major missile defense breakthrough came in 1991, during Operation Desert Storm. American soldiers successfully deployed the Patriot System to intercept incoming Iraqi scud missiles and protect allied military encampments. Our soldiers saw the power of missile defense for the first time. Since then, the federal government has poured serious resources into developing new technologies. Those dollars have paid off. The American military now has a number of proven systems capable of detecting, tracking and shooting down a wide variety of missiles.

Huffington Post.com OPINION/The Blog Did Russia Violate the INF Treaty? By David W. Kearn February 12, 2014 On January 29, the New York Times ran a front page article reporting that the United States had notified its NATO allies that Russia may have violated the 1987 Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) by testing a new cruise missile. The story received little further coverage and seemed to disappear with the kickoff of the Sochi Olympics. However, this is an important story. Despite ongoing diplomatic negotiations predicated on Russian cooperation (Iran, Syria), Moscow must be pressed to answer these charges. At the same time, the exact nature of the alleged violations remain unclear, and it is essential to first confirm substantive violations before unduly damaging a critical diplomatic relationship and jeopardizing the future of a treaty that continues to support U.S. national security interests. Signed by President Reagan and Soviet General Secretary Gorbachev in Washington, the INF Treaty was a watershed. For the first time, the Superpowers removed an entire class of weapons from their nuclear arsenals,

ABOUT THE USAF CPC The USAF Counterproliferation Center was established in 1998 at the direction of the Chief of Staff of the Air Force. Located at Maxwell AFB, this Center capitalizes on the resident expertise of Air University, while extending its reach far beyond - and influences a wide audience of leaders and policy makers. A memorandum of agreement Issue No.1102, 14 February 2014 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Center| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CPC Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 37 USAF Counterproliferation Center CPC Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama between the Air Staff Director for Nuclear and Counterproliferation (then AF/XON), now AF/A5XP) and Air War College Commandant established the initial manpower and responsibilities of the Center. This included integrating counterproliferation awareness into the curriculum and ongoing research at the Air University; establishing an information repository to promote research on counterproliferation and nonproliferation issues; and directing research on the various topics associated with counterproliferation and nonproliferation. In 2008, the Secretary of Defense's Task Force on Nuclear Weapons Management recommended that "Air Force personnel connected to the nuclear mission be required to take a professional military education (PME) course on national, defense, and Air Force concepts for deterrence and defense." As a result, the Air Force Nuclear Weapons School, in coordination with the AF/A10 and Air Force Global Strike Command, established a series of courses at Kirtland AFB to provide continuing education through the careers of those Air Force personnel working in or supporting the nuclear enterprise. This mission was transferred to the CPC in 2012, broadening its mandate to providing education and research to not just countering WMD but also nuclear deterrence. Return to Top