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i CONFLICT RESOLUTION: THE SOMALIA MILITIA STATE by Lucas Mahlasela Makhubela Thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements of the degree of Doctor Philosophiae: Political Science In the Department of Political Sciences Faculty of Humanities At the University of Pretoria Supervisor: Prof Maxi Schoeman © University of Pretoria ii DECLARATION I declare that the thesis, which I hereby submit for the degree D Phil (political Science)at the University of Pretoria, is my own work and has not previously been submitted by me for a degree at this or any other tertiary institution. …………………………………… Lucas Mahlasela Makhubela .....………………………….2016. © University of Pretoria iii Acknowledgements My personal interest in the field of conflict resolution can be attributed to my involvement in the liberation struggle for our country inspired by the desire to contribute to the creation of a peaceful and prosperous world, in which all people live peace and harmony irrespective of their race, colour, gender, religion and sexual orientation. Furthermore, my diplomatic career was pivotal in introducing me to the dynamics of conflict resolution within the continent of Africa, particularly in the Sudan, the Comoros and Somalia. The latter further created an interest for me embark on an academic study to primarily investigate causes of failure of the peace process in Somalia. The practitioner exposure to the challenges of conflict resolution and the academic inquiry were fundamental in my research work. In this context, I am profoundly grateful to my former Director General at the Department of International Relations and Cooperation, Dr Ayanda Ntsaluba for his support and encouragement. Similarly, Dr Ntsaluba remained my coach and mentor during my term as the Director General of Department of Tourism. I am also grateful to my good friend and former minister Mr Marthinus Van Schalkwyk who gave me the space and time in balancing my work as the Director General and my studies. I shall forever remain indebted to the Department of Tourism and the government of South Africa for paying my study fees at the University of Pretoria I am also grateful to my support staff at the Department of Tourism; Ms Yogi Dheeda, Ms Tebogo Khambule, Ms Lumka Mfecane and Ms Marjorie Sibiya for helping me in typing this thesis, I could not have made it without their support. My word of thanks also goes to Carol Jansen for editing this thesis. I am also grateful to Professor Abdi Samatar for his guidance and support, his knowledge of Somali culture and the way of life made it much easier me to understand some underlying, but important aspects of Somalia and its people. Most importantly, my profound gratitude to my lovely wife, Lauren Makhubela and my sons, Mahlasela Makhubela Jr and Molefi Makhubela for their understanding and support during the years of my research work, for that, I shall remain eternally grateful to them. Finally, no amount of thank you can express how grateful I am to my supervisor Professor Maxi Schoeman, who really pushed me to the limit throughout my research work. I am grateful that her push made me a better and disciplined student. Thank you Professor. © University of Pretoria iv MAP. Figure: 01 Map of Ethiopia, Somalia and Kenya Source: Nationmaster.com © University of Pretoria v ACRONYMS AMISOM - African Mission in Somalia ARPCT - Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and Counter Terrorism AU - African Union BATNA - Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement CAR - Central African Republic CIA - Central Intelligence Agency DRC - Democratic Republic of Congo EU - European Union FAO - Food and Agriculture Organisation ICC - International Criminal Court IGAD - Intergovernmental Authority on Development IR - International Relations ISIS - Islamic States of Iraq and Syria JVA - Juba Valley Alliance MEO - Mutually Enticing Opportunities MHS - Mutually Hurting Stalemate MOD - Marjeten Ogaden Dulbahunte NFD - Northern Frontier District NGO - Non-Governmental Organisation © University of Pretoria vi NSA - National Security Agency NSS - National Security Services ORH - Operation Restore Hope PPP - Public Private Partnership PSC - Protracted Social Conflict R2P - Responsibility to Protect RVF - Rift Valley Fever SAMO - Somali African Multi- Organisation SCIC - Supreme Council for the Islamic Courts SDA - Somali Democratic Alliance SDM - Somali Democratic Movement SIC - Sharia Implementation Council SNA - Somali National Army SNC - Somali National Congress SNDU - Somali National Democratic Union SNF - Somali National Front SNL - Somali National League SNM - Somali National Movement SNU - The Somali National Union SPM - The Somali People’s Movement © University of Pretoria vii SSRC - Somali Reconciliation and Restoration Council SSDF - Somali Salvation Democratic Front SSNM - Southern Somali National Movement SSRP - Somali Socialist Revolutionary Party SYL - Somali Youth League TFG - Transitional Federal Government TFI - Transitional Federal Institution TFP - Transitional Federal Parliament TNA - Transitional National Assembly TNC - Transitional National Council TNG - Transitional National Government UDI - Unilateral Declaration of Independence UIC - Union of Islamic Courts UN - United Nations UNHCR - United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees UNISOM - United Nations in Somalia UNITAF - United Nations International Task Force UNSC - United Nations Security Council US - United States USA - United States of America © University of Pretoria viii USC - Unite Somali Congress USF - United Somali Front USP - The United Somali Party WSLF - Western Somali Liberation Front © University of Pretoria ix Abstract The Somali conflict combines some of the risk factors commonly associated with state failure, state collapse and state disintegration phenomenon. This study commences with an exploration of the failure of the peace process in Somalia by investigating the creation of the Somali state in 1960 using literature on state formation and functions, state failure and state disintegration. The main argument is that the Somali state was created on flawed colonial state model and its concomitant shortcomings. Although poor leadership was a factor that led to the weakening of the early Somali state formation, state structural weaknesses were the major factors which facilitated poor leadership that characterised post- independent Somalia, further compounded by the period of military rule under General Siad Barre. Furthermore, the post-Siad Barre conflict was fundamental in swinging the pendulum in favour of the disintegration of the Somali state. The historical legacy of high social fragmentation in Somalia, reflected in the clan political divisions is a factor that is used by instrumentalists in the perpetuation of the conflict in that country. Similarly, clan political structures are used by civil militia groups, defined in this study as “third generation civil militia groups” who continue to plunder what remained of the Somali state. The “third generation civil militia groups” function outside the Westphalian state norms and regulations that are based on the social contract between the state and its citizens. The study then outlines an alternative approach to analysis of conflicts where the state has been decimated and civil militia groups have assumed power without the checks and balances that come with such responsibilities. Failure of the peace process in Somalia is attributed to the absence of the basic principles of mediation and negotiations during the five main peace processes, and it is concluded that the application of coercive mediation has also contributed to the failure of international diplomacy in this regard. The failure of the peace © University of Pretoria x process has facilitated the transformation of Somalia into a militia state, balkanised along clan militia fiefdoms based on parochial clan political interests in which civil militia leaders are the main beneficiaries of the disintegrated Somali state. Therefore, new approaches to resolve the conflict where civil militia have established governance without government requires further research, as a similar phenomenon is gaining momentum in countries such as Iraq, Libya, South Sudan, Syria, Yemen and the Central African Republic. The study concludes that the current political developments in Somalia cannot be sustainable as long as they are introduced under conditions of coercive force by the international community and the African Union (AU) in particular. Under these circumstances, the conflict will continue to experience some episodic periods of abeyance, and only to resurface at a later stage with high levels of ferocity and intensity. © University of Pretoria xi Table of Contents Chapter one ..........................................................................................................................................1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Identification of the research theme ........................................................................... 1 1.2 Literature review .......................................................................................................... 4 1.3 Research problem, research questions, research objectives and key assumptions .. 8 1.4 The contribution of this study .................................................................................. 11 1.5 Structure of the study and the research methodology ............................................
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