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VOLUME III - APPENDIX • 1

ELECTRONIC MAIL - COMIRZIUCATIWG WORD PROCESSORS

of them, however, are used for communications. CWP's will not get sufficient air play until the installed base has reached a "critical mass".

Wohl, A.D. "Communicating Word Processors," Datamation, Mar. 1978: 102-110. A search for explanations of the slow start of electronic mail systems based on word processing hardware. Incompatibility of communications protocols between communicating word processors, the considerable cost of word processing units, and the want for additional stations to reach a "critical mass" of users are the principal force s at work. The article maintains that a "critical mass" will eventually be reached, the sooner if common carriers implement value-added coTiversion services and the costs of word processing units with communications options drop substan- tially in the near future.

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ELECTRONIC MAIL FACSIMILE

Anderson, H. "Facsimile Data Compression . . . How It Can Hera the Bottom Line," Communications News, Sept. 1978: 66-67. The article spells out the principal features of three methods of data compression - run- length coding, two-direction simultaneous scanning, and early character recognition - entertained by facsimile terminal manufacturers. The arV, le also considers Com- pression Lab's Fmx-Comp, facsimile augmen- tation equipment that reduces transmission time from 6 minutes to 24 seconds at 2400bps (6 seconds at 9600bps) of facsimile terminals in the field.

Detailed Descr iption of the Analog Facsimile Exchan ge Service, in-house document, Oct. 15, 1976. Documentation supporting imp lementation, by Western Union of the Analog Facsimile Exchange Service. Estimates of total facsimile installations are drawn from an internally prepared source, MP & NSD's Facsimile Services Market and Technology Assessment: - ncluded In the Strategic Planning report are usage characteristics conditioned to the 1982 facsimile environment: avera ge transmission time per page, average number of pages per facsimile message connection, average daily total terminal connection time, average holding timie per connection, and average number of connections per business day.

Electronic and Electro-O tical Publish ing Equipment Market, New York: Frost & Su Ivan, Sept. . A discussion of competin g media that may effect the growth of the publishing and printing industry. Television, facsimile, and, ultimately, the combination of the two will pose a real threat to the conventionally printed word. Sat- :ellite printing, mainly of news magazines and large newspapers, is identified as a major new facsimile submarket which will grow at 7.2% annually. 1 4

ELECTRONIC MAIL - FACSIMILE

"Experimental fax net handles NASA teleconferencing," Data Communications, Sept. 1977.

Cost data associated with NASA's 55-terminal experimental facsimile network which, in con - junction with audio interconnection, has served as a teleconferencing medium for the past three years. Using sub-minute facsimile terminals, often in an unattended, broadcast mode, NASA has been able to reduce its annual travel expenses significantly.

Facsimile & Electronic Dail, New Canaan, CIS: International Resource Development, Inc., Nov. 1976. A monographic anal y sis of the facsimile market providing, in part, assessments of satellite and optical fiber wideband facsimile transmission, local/remote copiers, and growth, of low-cost, and high - speed facsimile units. Also provided are forecasts of market demand. through 1986, survey results by industry of facsimile user characteristics and applications, and a discussion of probable instances of cross elasticity.

Facsimile^Ecu^i,pment & Systems in the U.S.A., New York: Frost d Sullivan, May 1977. A study based, in part, on the results of a survey of major facsimile users. Included are discussions of special-application facsimile networks, facsimile common carriers, facsimile equipment and manufacturers, and market growth characteristics through 1981. Of note is the supposition that 30 to 35% of the traffic carried by the SBS system will be facsimile and that 80% of this facsimile traffic will be carried at night.

The Facsimile Industry, San Jose: Creative Strategies Inter- national, Mar. 1978. • i An examination by business application and by equipment segment of growth trends in the facsimile market through 1982. Growth will be measurably influenced, the article contends, by general economic conditions, ^ t

ELECTRONIC MAIL - FACSIMILE

f the cast of communications, and new product Innovations and competitors. It is expected 'that digital, fast analog, and slow inexpensive analog business facsimile units will be the fast movers, all at the expense of the current installed base of slow expensive analog business facsimile units.

'The Facsimile Marker Verges on a New Era," EMMS, Aug. 15, 1978. An evolutionary look at the market for facsimile devices. The article identifies four "eras" of development, the fourth and emerging era being the genesis of facsimile networking and fax unit store-and-forward capability.

"Facsimile: 1918 Overview," Communications trews, Dec. 1977: 67-84.

A series of articles covering all the facsimile bases - facsimile market growth, common carrier facsimile networks, special-purpose facsimile applications, and a buyer's guide to facsimile equipment. The lead article is accompanied by tables culled from facsimile studies by Frost & Sullivan, International Resource Development, and the Yankee Group.

Facsimile Services Market and Technology Assessment, in-house document, Nov. 25, 1975. An internally prepared market research document exploring the facsimile equipment and services markets. Considered in the document are the impact of facsimile on Western Union's existing services, an evaluation of electronic postal services, and the revenue and usage potential of a proposed Western Union Remote Copying Service. Vari- ous consultant estimations of the total -market are critiqued and an 8-year market forecast is assembled therefrom.

"Fax pace quickens in both speed, new vendor entries,'" Data Communications, Mar. 1978. A summary article describing the increased activity in transceivr.!r production, which ELECTRONIC MAIL - FACSIMILE

will speed the pace toward electronic mail. One industry observer who projects substantial growth in demand for sub-minute, digital facsimile transceivers finds that such growth will not necessarily be at the expense of the slower, analog devices.

Hughes, J.W. "Facsimile Equipment Update," Telecommunications, Feb. 1977: 22-28. Brief descriptions of facsimile terminals currently marketed by 14 manufacturers.

Markets for Facsimile Equipment and Services, New Canaan, C:: Internationa Resource Deve opment # Inc., July 1974. A comprehensive examination of the facsimile market addressing, in part, technological, sociological, and business trends, all of which point to the sustainer; growth of the facsimile market. The current market is defined by market type - mailroom, dial-up, convenience, and specialized facsimile - and projections for the years 1976, 1979, and 1984 are provided. It is noted that by 1984 most new equi pment will incorporate substantial bandwidth compression circuitry.

"New Technology Spurrina Greater Use of Facsimile," Communications News, Sept. 1978: 54-55, The article highlights recent developments in the facsimile marketplace: new common carrier offerings, both domestic and international, which permit communication between unlike terminals; the emergence of a facsimile-oriented electronic mail service in Canada; and the entry of Panafax into the U.S. terminal market. Sianificant manu- facturer market shares and three consultant forecasts of terminal growth through 1985 are also shown. 1 Report on Facsimile, Cambridge, MA: The Yankee Proup , Nov. 1975, Feb. 1976, May 6. Three quarterly reports discussin g day in, day out events occurrin g in the facsimile

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market and providing estimates of current and prospective terminal demand, geographic distribution, time of transmission, and type of user. The Yankee Group reckons that half of the documents f4csimiled could stand a delay of up to several hours.

"Resurgence of Facsimile, t° Telecommunications, May 1978; 85-88. Summarizing the major findings of a recent study by Creative Strategies, the article indicates that the market for facsimile equipment will grow at a 20% annual rate. by 1981 even though its real potential will not become evident until after 1982. Prin- cipal factors influencing market growth will be, when they occur, development of a fully automated under-two-minute unit priced below 8100 per month or a fully automated under-one-minute priced .below $150 per month, lower communications costs with packet switching and satellite systems, and some semblance of standard- ization. The article, in addition, includes a listing of facsimile devices currently on the market.

Schreiber, B.R. "Facsimile in the Future - Where Does It Fit?," Telecommunications, May 1975: 77-82. The article postulates that the dramatic growth of the installed base of facsimile equipment envisioned by many did not materialize because factors other than time and the U.S. Mail, specifically, the rapid advance of communication;, technology] were not entered into the forecasting equa- tion. The market for stand-alone facsimile equipment, which will become highly seg- mented, will continue to grow through 199P because human nature has an unalterable !attachment for paper or hard copy.

Southern Pacific Communications Co., Facsimile Service Forecasts, (working papers in filing), Jan. 4, 1.^` Three-year forecasts of facsimile traffic carried by SPC over its Speedfax network.

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Traffic is segregated by speed of transmission and facsimile terminals by service point.

"Special Report: Facsimile's Finest Hour," Communications News, Dec. 1976: 29-43. An analysis of the facsimile market, including anticipated growth statistics, costs, examples of installation, and a buyers guide to terminal devices currently marketed by 15 manufacturers.

Stamps, G. Business Plan for a Facsimile- Related Electronic Message Service, GIIS Consultants, July 1979. A report prepared for Western Union evaluatina the introduction by Western Union of electronic facsimile-based letter message services. Esti- mations of total market revenue and of cost per delivered page are provided.

Wells, L. "Facsimile Growth," Telecommunications, Feb. 1977. Provides market forecasts through 1980 for both convenience and operational facsimile devices. By 1980 the ratio of the one to the other is expected to be 60:40.

1 ELECTRONIC MAIL - GENERAL

Automating Business Communications Conforence, American Institute o In ustr a Engineers, Jan. 3 414 155-160, 199-2030 375-37p t 460-477, 500-504, 603-617. A compilation of papers whose theme is the integration of text processing, electronic ` mail, intelligent telephone systems, and teleconferencing into the automated office.

Caswell, S.A. 'Electronic Mail Delivers," Computer Decisions, Apr. 1977: 32-39. The article includes projections of cost per record message sent via various means of electronic mail through 1985 and shows, in pie-chart fashion, the 1977 hard-copy and visual message market.

, Satellites and the Automated Office, Boston; Boston University and the institute for Advanced Professional Studies, Nov. 1977. A description of the electronic mail market. Although the current round of electronic mail systems cannot compete with the U.S. Postal Service in terms of cost per message and only exists because the benefits far out- weigh the extra expenses, the next round, which may include extensive satellite- channel terminal interconnection, will compete favor- ably with the USPS on a cost basis.

Duscha, J. "For Computers, a Marryin Sam," The New York T.mas, Dec. 25, 1977. The article gives the particulars of TDX Systems' Datapost, a Mailgram-type service that uses facsimile machines, telecopiers, and TDX computers in combination with the USPS's Express Mail Service.

"An Electronic Mail & Message Systems Primer," EMMS, vol. 2, no. 7, Apr. 3, 1977: 1-9. An elaboration of currently operational electronic mail and message systems (EMMS) and a projection of communications revenues and equipment shipment values for each type a, Ile, ELECTRONIC MAIL - GENERAL

of system for 1976. Discussed are the effects of cross-elasticity impacts on revenue generation by type of EMMS service.

"Electronic mail net blueprint is unveiled by USPS," Data Com- munications, Dec. 1977: 15-16. The article summarizes the U.S. Postal Service's intentions to introduce an electronic message service system, commercially available on a limited scale in 1981 and on a full scale in the mid 1960's. Post offices comprising the nodes of the packet switched system will be ;linked by terrestrial and/or satellite channels. The design goal of nodal processing equipment is 10 pages per second.

Evans, J.J. "New Survey: Bank Postal Expenses Keep Rising. How to Control Them," Banking, May 1978. The article sets forth the vital statistics of the banking industry's outgoing postal traffic. Community banks (deposits of less than $100 million) mailed an average: of 147,000 pieces in 1976, 98% of which were first class. Large banks (those remaining) mailed an average of 5 million pieces in 1976, 97% of which were first class. The average cost per piece mailed in both cases was 20 cents.

Eward, R.S. " policy Issues in Electronic Mail," Horizon House, Oct. 1977: 943-949. A discussion of technology developments and their implications, future trends, and regulatory history contributory to an under- standing of electronic mail policy issues. i. ,-Policy Issues in Electronic Mail, Indialantic, FL: artec Strategies, Inc., Nov. 1977. 1 A discussion of the major factors affecting the growth of electronic mail, of the policy issues that must be addressed, and of the impact of electronic mail on the U.S. Postal Service. r' 1

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ELECTRONIC MAIL - GENERAI

Milled F-W. "Electronic Mail Comes of A96j " Infosystems, Nov. 1977.

AI description of electronic-mail type services provided by Western Union # Graphic Scanning (Graphnet), TDX Telecommunications (Datapost), and Scientific Time Sharing Corp. ("Mal,lbox") to the business community. The article also describes the in-house electronic mail system maintained by the Wharton School of Business.

The Report on Electronic Mail, Cambridge, MA: The Yankee Group, Aug.

A freehand. analysis of the elements of facsimile, electronic mail, and word processing systems and services. Specific evaluations of sub-minute facsimile devices, Quip Systems, computer-based aystems, Wiltek, TDX., and competing facsimmile message services.

The Report on Electronic Mail, Cambridge, MA: The Yankee roup, Pec. .

The Yankee Group's basic report on electronic mail. Among the items considered are the digital broadcasting service proposed by TDX, the public facsimile services offered by SPC and ITT, the Viewdata concept, and the current status of the facsimile equipment industry.

Stamps, G.M. "Electronic mail: technology ready for packaging," Data Communications, Jan. 1977: 53-60. The article suggests that a hybrid.electronc mail terminal, able to operate simultaneously in both word processing and facsimile modes; will become commercially available within one or two years. Bits-per-page statistics are provided for keystroke, facsimile, and hybrid alternatives.

U.S. Postal Services Support Panel Telecommunications, Electronic Message Systems for the U:S. Postal Service, Washington: National Research Council, June

A study funded by the U.S. Postal Service to evaluate various means of electronic ELECTRONIC MAIL GENERAL

mail distri)ution and to recommend a delivery system for the nation's mail service. A major conclusion reached by the panel was that the U.S.P.S. would not necessarily benefit from owning its own delivery system.

Western Union Electronic Mail Business Plan, in-house document,

A complete business plan which includes identification of competition in and the potential size of the record message market, estimation of the price elasticity of electronic message traffic, and a forecast of WUEMI revenue and traffic.

1 FIBER OPTICS

Barbetta, ,r. "Digital Com Demands Spur Fiber Optics," Electronic News, Dec. 12, 1977.

The article suggests that both the per- ceivable increase in use of digital switching and transmission systems by voice and data common carriers and the development of optical fiber waveguides that reduce power loss and make possible longer repeater- spans will stimulate interest in fiber optics. The article sets forth the testing and marketing activities of the principal fiber optics manufacturers.

"The beam that lights the future," Telephony, Auc. 9 1 1976. The article underlines the phenomenal growth potential of fiber optics, especially for telecommunication and cable television applications. The advantages and-disadvantages of fiber optic systems are cataloged, the latter, it is presumed, disappearing as the major telephone laboratories and several other organizations turn their attention to the practical development of such systems.

Communications Markets and Strategies, vol. 11, New York: uantum Sclence'Corp'. , 1977:127-140. A comprehensive treatment of fiber optic communications. Covered are the benefits of fiber-optic-based systems, the part played by fiber optic cable in "the office of the future", significant advances in fiber optic technology since 1972, principal fiber optic cable suppliers, full-scale Bell System tests in Atlanta and Chicago, and near-term service applications.

Dickinson, R.V. Data Communications on Coaxial and CA111 r Networks, E-COMA Corp., Nov. 1977. A description of the means by which coaxial cable and cable TV networks can be used for data transmission and of the high-quality performance characteristics such means will provide. FIBER OPTICS ( Edwards, M. "Fiber Optic Links Forge Paths for the Expected Informbtion Explosion," Communications News, Feb. 1978: 30-33. The article touches all of the optical fiber bases: principal advantages of optical links; recent advances in optical fiber technology; trade-offs between LED's and lasers (light sources) and between PIN silicon and silicon avalanche photodiodes (light detectors); experimental installations for central office- to-central office telephorie traffic in Atlanta, Chicago, Los Angeles, and D russels and for CATV traffic in New York City and Higashi Ikoma; and principal component manufacturers.

"Fiber o_atics: light at last," Data Communications, Aug. 1977: 18-25. The prospective sharp reduction in optical fiber costs, to pennies a meter, and success in the laboratory in extending the useful life of solid-state lasers are per- haps all that is needed, the article maintains, to get finer optic communications onto a fast track Several examples of operational systems, most of which serving either the government or military sector, are provided.

The Impact of Wideband Communications, New Canaan, CN: Inter- national Resource Development, Inc., Aug. 1977. A researched report on the prospects of wideband communications. The report finds that the supply of bandwidth, until recently insufficient, has burgeoned with the advent of satellites, videotape recorders, micro- waves, digital signaling, and optical fiber cable. It is expected that wideband will fundamentally change office practices, the mails, publishing, education, and television.

Kahn, I. "Fiber Optics and Lasers Will Meed Demand for More Broadband Links," Communications News, Dec. 1977: 22-23. The article underscores the significance of two emerging technologies - optical fibers and gallium arsenide lasers. Once emerged these two technologieu will shape the way rnmmunicitions is conducted. L= - FIBER OPTICS t Leigh, P. Li q htwave Communications, New York: The First Boston Corp., Aug. 19, r A Primer on fiber optic communications. Included are estimates of the value of 3 fiber optic shipments in 1981 by market segment.

, A Technology Whose Time Has Come, New York: The First Boston Corp., Feb. 24, The article, the transcript of a speech given before the Department of Commerce, describes the three-step process of fiber optic communications, points out the theoretical and presently attainable advantages of the technology, measures the commitment of manufacturers to full-scale production, discusses present obstacles to success, and identifies gainful vendor strategies. Of the strategies, winning early supply contracts in order to establish one's product specifications as the industry standard is considered the most beneficial.

"Advantages of Optical Transmission Offer Par- Reaching Implications," Communications News, May 1977: 119. The article identifies four basic advantages of fiber optics - electrical iso- lation, lar g e bandwidth., potential low cost, indifference to moisture and temperature. The telephone industry, the article goes on, represents the largest potential market for fiber optic cable, over half the total demand.

, A Current Surve y of Lightwave Elettronics, New York: The First Boston Corp., Oct. 18, 1977. I The article maintains that optical transmission will eventually become the prin-

cipal means of signal transmission. As d the industry develops, certain technologies will be favored to others: sincle fiber channels will be preferred to fiber bundles, graded index fibers will ba preferred to

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FIBER OPTICS

step-index fibers, and semiconductor lasers will be preferred to LED'-s. The article also considers the principal vendors of fiber optic systems, noting where they may find nev opportunities.

Meier, A.R. "Centel plunges into optical communication," Telephony, Dec. 12, 1977: 26-29. The article sets forth Central Telephone's first steps to imp lement an optical communications system that will accommodate ordinary commercial telephone traffic. The article considers, in particular, the techniques of splicir.c utilized by Centel installation crews.

Optical Communications Systems, Frost & Sullivan, Sept. 1977. A general discussion of the atmospheric and waveguide means of optical communications. The first type will be limited to short-range and special applications; the second, and by far the more service- able, will be appropriate for telecommunications,and computer uses. The study, although noting the real promise of optical communicators, did not find an apparent need within the commercial satellite community to use them in space.

Op tical Fiber Cable Systems, Nippon Electric Co. Ltd.: Sections 17 and A flip-chart presentation of the basic_ optical fiber cable configuration, the advantages of optical fiber cable, and the uses, both short and long-distance, of same.

"Taking a shot at fiber optics," Telephony, Dec. 5, 1977: 63-70. The particulars of a 6.5 mile experimental optical fiber communications system that has been installed in Belgium by GTE and the Belgian telecommunications agency. "FM MAIL"

Barna, B. "The hottest new idea in electronic mail," Computer Decisions, Feb. 1978. The article describes TDX's proposed nationwide electronic mail system which will operate over subsidiary communicati pans ^hannels of commercially licensed FM rsdio istations. The principal obstacles to early s ystem implementation, the article indicates, are regulatory.

"Digital Broadcasting Blossoms Overnight," EMMS, vol. 2, no. 10, May 15, 1978: 6-8. the article paints a bright future for Digital Broadcasting Corp., which intends to lease the FM subcarriers which are a part of an FN, radio station's allocated channel space in order to broadcast digital information to local subscribers connected into nationwide networks. It is expected that newsletter and stock quotation services will be principal users of the Digital Broadcasting system. At date of publication, the company had received letters of intent for 26,000 terminals.

"Faxnet -- 'A Radio Newspaper,'" EMMS, vol. 2, nv. 12, June 15, 1978: 7-9. Particulars on Fax Net Inc., which presently provides FM mail service to grocers and travel agents in Chicago and Minneapolis. The article maintains that FM mail, although serving no more than a niche market, will experience rapid growth.

"Now FM broadcasters carry the mail," Business Week, Nov. 28, 1977: 46B-46D. - Particulars on the two front-line FM mail carriers, Digital Broadcasting Corp, and Fax Net Inc. It is expected that specialized news bulletins will be the principal con- 1 stituent of FM mail. It is not clear, the article notes, whether the FCC will choose to regulate FM mail w i

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"FM MAIL" Y

1 "Will Digicast Replace Today's Modern Newspaper?," EMM5, vol. 2, no. 19, Oct. 2, 1978: 5--7.

Noting that there is often considerable distance between what is technologically implementable`and what is realistically marketable, the article maintains that a plan to use a subchannel carrier of the FM band to distribute an electronic newspaper, a plan that is technologically implementable, is likely to fail. Only with a newspaper's large-size pages is it possible for the eye to scan a day's worth of news in a few minutes, what it cannot do if it must await the playback of an entire electronic newspaper. The article does foresee, ,however, a bright future for broadcasting via FM subcarriers - specialized publications. IBM/SBS

Data Communications E ui ment Market in the U.S.A., New York: cost s Sullivan, Feb. 1975. A discussion of the introduction of SDLC by IBM in 1974 and of the effect of SDLC and the concept of Advanced Function for Com- munications on users and on independent terminal and mainframe vendors. The new concept is considered an imposing challange to IBM's competitors.

Myers, D. "Business Communications - in orbit by 1 80, in service, '81," Telephony, Feb. 27, 1978. A press-release type description of the SBS system and of trial service provided to Montgomery Ward during Project Prelude. It is noted that economic evaluation of the SBS system cannot proceed without consideration of several imperfectly quanti- fiable elements, e.g., in the case of teleconferencing, reduced travel time.

Prelude: Communications of the Future - Evaluation Report on Project Prelude, Exj2eriment No. 26 in the CTS Pro gram, McLean, VA: Satellite Business Systems, May 30, 1978. Evaluation report of trial 12/14GHz transmission links established by SBS between specific, volunteer customer locations over CTS. Trial users evaluated three communications applications: video conferencing, data processing, and high-speed facsimile. Prospective cost to the user, by the prc- jq^ct's ground rules, was not determinative.

"Prelude Pro gram Previews Satellite Business Systems," Communica- tions News, Mar. 1978. A press-release type description of Project Prelude, a four-month demonstration of intra-company communications conducted by 1 SBS via the 12/14GHz Communications Tech- nology Satellite. Participants in the demonstration were Aetna, Montgomery Ward, Rockwell, and Texaco. V

IBM/SBS t

Printers & Papers in the Office of ture, New Canaan, CN: International Resources Inc., Feb.

The study considers the impact of technology on the office of the future. Described in some detail is the makeup of SBS-type satellite networks, which will funnel variable- speed voice, data, and visual traffic through single message switching or data concentra- tion stations. Also discussed are local and remote printing stations and communicating word processors. An indication of the impact of these technologies on paper flow is included.

SBS Special Report, Waltham, MA: Internationa? Data Corp., Jan. 197&.

A comprehensive description of the SBS system and the services, both conventional and new, it will avail. System saturation will be attained, it is projected, when 10 to 15 cus- tomers (in addition to IBM and Aetna), each with 20 to 25 earth stations and 20Mbps worth of capacity, are on -line. Of interest is the claim that voice traffic will be carried at 32Kbps.

Sherwood, H.F., "IBM's Strategy in Terminals and Distributed Processing," Datamation, Mar. 1978: 92-98. The article identifies two conceivable strategies that explain recent actions of IBM: (i) consideration of distributed networks as bridges from centralized computing to multiple installations of smaller mainframes, which might, in turn, grow into larger installations; and (ii) provision of cheap transmission services (SBS) so that users will continue to transfer data base *lements to single large centralized installations rather than store them at distributed sites. MEMORY DEVICES

Berman, M., and N. Snyderman, " Surge in Bubbles Soon to GGG," Electronic News, Mar. 20, 1978; 87 - 88. Early jockeying for position in the bubble memory component and supplier markets. Referring to a recent Creative Strategies study, the article notes that although charge coupled devices are five or six times faster than bubble-s, the latter are competitive, bubble memories are, notably, non-volatile and, at some point, will be less expensive.

"Bubbling Up Some Memory Devises," Data Management, Aug. 1977 12-15. Brief descriptions of today's principal memory technologies - magnetic tapes, ferrite cores, integrated circuits, charge coupled devices, and magnetic bubbles. The article notes that, given a specific per-unit cost, there is generally a trade- off between storage capacity and speed of data retrieval.

Gilder, J.H. "Wonnerful, wonnerful - turn on the bubble machine," Computer Decisions, Nov. 1976: 20. An overview of two emerging, competing semiconductor technologies - bubble memories and charge-coupled devices. increased chip memory densities are expected for both technologies in the near future.

Hanson, D. "653'\ CCDs Split Into 3 Camps; National to Second Source Intel," Electronic News, Dec. 5, 1977: 37. The article points to the nonuniformitp of opinion of industry observers over the market potential for charge coupled t devices. The article concludes that i the demand for CCDs is a function of the price differential between CCDs and i dynamic memory devices.

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HEMORY DEVICES 1

"The Qutlook for Bubble Memory Devises," Mini-Micro Systems, Feb..1978. A report noting the results of a study conducted by Venture Development Corp. into the market potential for bubble memory devices. The market is expected to grow rapidly provided bubble system prices Are competitive with moving head disks. Bubble memory shipments are estimated to exceed one billion dollars by 1985.

Shaffer, R.A. "Bubble Memories Aren't Developing Rapidly as Expected," The Wall Street Journal, Aua. 4, 1970. The article suggests that the bubble memory market is not developing as rapidly as enthusiasts once expected. Texas Instruments, the market's principal supplier, has not yet reached several significant productions mile- stones, leading industry observers to conjecture that bubble memories will not fulfill their original promise until at least 1980.

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MISCELLANEOUS

Washington: ications Dittberner Associates), 1976. The ,study considers the past and present mar- ' ket for PABX equipments in the United States, analyzing, in part, equipments supplied to this marketplace by the major U.S. and foreign manufacturers. The study also provides a broad look at U.S. export activities in the PABX market area. The time frame of interest is 1972-1975. Likely trends in the PABX market area are forecasted through 1985.

An Analysis of Domestic and Forei gn Small Earth Station Markets, Washington: U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Telecom- munications (in conjunction with Arthur D. Little, Znc.), May 1976. The report considers the domestic and foreign markets for small earth stations (earth stations with antennas measuring 10 meters or less in diameter). It is projected that domestic'small earth station shipments will grow from $7.7 million in 1975 to $62.9-89.5 million in 1985. Foreign small earth station shipments are expected to show similar growth, from $16 million in 1975 to $1.42-224 million in 1985.

Barbetta, F. "Local Digital Switching Systems, PBX's to Domi- nate Telecom Field," Electronic News, Jan. 2, 1978: V. Industry observers indicate that the independent telephone companies will have a significant impact on this market, either through implementation of digital equipment for new or replacement of existing local central office equipment. Within the PBX area, digital techniques are encroaching upon the long existent analog systems. Key

systems and Automatic Call Distribution 01 systems, each with more sophistication 1 through digital technology, are becoming competitive with small PBX systems. i r-

MISCELLANEOUS i

"Booming International Telecom Marketr" Microwave Journal, Nov. 77: 34. Arthur D, Little relates the growth of domestic and international satellite communications systems through 1965 promulgated by the advance- ments in technology of switching, transmission, local distribution and terminal equipments. The growing importance of digital techniques will replace the traditional use of analog services over the next ten years. Most promi- nent among the newly developed technologies are the higher frequency satellite systems operating at up to 30GHz.

Committee on Interstate and Foreign Commerce, Options Papers, Washington: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1977. A series of papers presenting various options open to the Subcommitfiz^e on Communications which has revisited the Communications Act of 1934 with the intention of general revision: Considered are policy options for the spectrum resource; commercial and public broadcasting; safety, special, and mobile radio communications; domestic communications common carriers; international communications; cable television; the right to privacy; and regulatory structure and procedure.

Data Base and Industry Sector Forecast, Vol. III, MAPTEK Strategy Report, New York: Quantum Science Corp., 1976. An industry-by-industry summary of projected communications expenditures - broken down into equipment, leased facility, and labor subcate- gories - through the year 1960. Descriptions of specific company installations and communications networks are provided. In thg article it is predicted that the demand for facsimile and TDM equipment and for satellite earth stations will grow dramatically. MISCELLANEOUS

information Resources Polic Arenas, Plaersy and Stakes, O-1. i t Cambrl3ge l MA: Harvard University, A chart and text presentation of the arenas, players, and stakes involved in the development of information resour.,,ra policy. of especial interest is a diagi.,&,n showing the R functional relationship between investment cost per mile of transmission system and number of circuits.

"Interconnect - Ten Years Later," Communications News, Mar. 197E.

Interconnect penetration over the past ten years in the consumer marketplace and business applications area has been developing at a fast pace. Some industry estimates of this penetration state that it has reached a 5 to 10% level, whereas Independent Tele- communications Analysts in a recent study chowed that in the Denver market a 28% penetration has been accomplished. ITA considers that Denver is typical of the national trend and therefore,'the national level should be 20 to 28%. The most important effect that interconnect has done for the industry has been to accelerate new technology that has provided the user with service enhancements and new capabilities that would still be nonexistent or possibly just surfacing. Unit growth over the next ten years has been forecasted as (1) station equipment, from 2.2M to 10.4M units, 218, (2) PBX's from 5.8K to 24E units, 24% and (3) key systems, from 7.6A to 37K units, 21%.

Langley, G.A. "Beginnings: The global transition to digital switching is underway," Telephony, July 10, 1978: 104-131. Digital switching offers advantages that financially aware telecommunications admin- istrations no longer can ignore. The author predicts that many countries will find themselves turning to digital before the year 2000. 'Within his text he describes current systems, step by step, common control, stored program control and then digital with his reasoning for conversion to digital. a

MISCELLANEOUS

Management Action Report, Vol. I MAPTEK Action Report, New Xor : Quantum Science Corp., 1976. A report marking the trend toward, integrated systems Accommodating previously separate elements of business information, that is, voice, data, image, and text. AT&T and IBM/ SBS are the only vendors, the report observes, that are in a position to support fully integrated systems. Four key products which will serve as the nucleus of fully integrated systems are noted.

Sefton, N.H. "Duke University Tel-Com: Large Interconnect or Small Telco?," Business Communications Review, Nov./Dec. 1977: 3-11. The article describes Duke University's privately owned telecommunications system which serves the university, its medical center, and student popu-- lation. The system is organized and operated "very much like a small telephone company", with its own central office; inside and outside ilant; business office; and traffic, commercial, and data processing departments.

The report provides a set of five scenarios that illustrate some of the impacts, conflicts, issues, and changes that might arise daring the next 15 years from the interaction between technological innovation in telecommunications and the social context in which it occurs. This context includes our national economy, political framework, industrial structure, international relations, and personal life styles. r`

White', C,E. "International Carriers Looking Up and Forward," Telecommunications, Aug. 1976. The article provides an estimate of U.S. - World telex traffic through 1980. Factors encouraging the growth of ;:international data communications over the time F* riod in question are identified: ,,

MISCELLANEOUS

lowering of costs, introduction of new services, reduction of regulatory controls, and introduction of compatible standards.

i MOBILE RADIO

Lana eq@Dlle %:vmmuniva r_xvns ana runllc rolicyp VU1 . 1. 1 - Urban Forecasts of Conventional LMR Demand and Elaboration on the Demand-Rd ated As ects of the Stud y ? Beverly Hills: ystems Applications, Inc. or the office of Telecommuni- cations Policy), Aug. 31, 1972. The second volume of a three-volume study providing OTP a quantitative basis for its formu- lation and implementation of public policies that affect the evolution of the domestic land mobile radio (LMR) industry. Included in the present volume are a discussion of the scope and particular objectivee of the demand aspects of the study, a critique of previous LMR forecasting studies, and brief descriptions of the conventional LMR services for which forecasts were produced. The appendices contain demand forecasts for various urban areas under different sets of assumed conditions.

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"And t1hen there were 71,860," Broadcasting, Feb. 6, 1978: 32-33. 1 'The article sets forth a new narrowband technology that will increase the number of land mobile channels seven to tenfold within the assigned spectrum. As with the cellular concept, most radio common carriers consider implementation of the new technology beyond their financial resources.

Evacuation of the Market for Mobile Communications Equipments Chicago: INTEC, Inc,_ May 18, 1972. The study quantifies potential demand for several types of mobile communications equipment and identifies demographic differences between positive and negative respondees. It is concluded that the demand for paging systems is more price elastic than the demand for mobile telephone systems and that vendors would not be misled to venture into the tone only and tone plus voice pager residential markets.

"Fewer busy signals for mobile phones," Business Week, Aug. 7, 1978: 60B-60C. The article highlights "nontechnical roadblocks" which may hold up the general introduction of the Bell System's Advanced Mobile Phone Service: the absence of FCC-imposed standards and the delay tactics of radio common carriers, many of whom cannot afford the huge investment required to build cellular systems. In this winner-take-all market, Bell has forecasted 10 million subscribers by 1990; others, prin- cipally radio phone suppliers, anticipate slower, but still significant, growth.

Fredrickson, D. "Airborne Service Gets Off Ground," Communi- cations News, Nov. 1978: 78-79. A status report on the evolvement of the air- ground telephone system, which presently_ serves 4000 subscribers '°rom 52 ground stations. Ground station usage has been growing at a 258 annual rate.

A 1 MOBILE RADIO

Jamieson, W.M., C.S. Peet, and R.J. Bengston, Potential Markets for a Satellite-Based Mobile Communications System, Columbus, OH: Batte a Co umbus Laboratories, Apr.. 16, 1976. The, study, initiated under NASA contract, addres- ses the nature and character of land mobile communications uses and users. The study also seeks to measure uses demand for a satellite, based mobile communications system, concluding that the local nature of most land mobile communications, the emergence of land-based means of improving spectrum utilization, and the expense of satellite services will hold up its early development.

Kraus, R. a__QgmRlete Mobtle Radig.Markft Study on the 900 M; z High Capacity System, Dedham, MA: Horizon House International, 1976. The study gives evidence of a linear relationship between price and demand for mobile radios, evaluates several mobile radio market projections found in the literature,, derives its own market forecast, and proposes several marketable non-vehicular uses for mobile radios.

Land Mobile Communications and Public Policy, Principal Stud Fin in s and their Policy Implications, Beverly Hills: Sys- tems Applications Inc., Aug. 31, 1972. The study identifies significant trends in the evolution of the mobile radio market (in 1972) and projects ;subscriber counts through the year 2000. The study also considers alternative public policy objectives; in conclusion it,pxoposes that government introduce mobile radio services that would not be _conceived in a timely fashion if left to private industry and that, otherwise, the mobile radio market be as competitive as possible.

O'Brien, J.A. "Final tests begin for mobile telephone system," Bell Laboratories Record, July/Aug. 1976: 171-174. i Description of two ongoing tests, one in Chicago and one in Newark, whose results arf intended to measure the market potential for the Bell System's Advanced Mobile Telephone Service, a cellular mobile telephone service MOBILE RADIO

ghat affords cons iderable radio spectrum saving. A second goal of the two tests is bo show that call setup and hardoff can be `handled reliably, even in small cells, where there will be the greatest amount of inter ferencee

"Squabbling over mobile phones," Business Week, June 6, 1977: 36J. The article takes note of the contention between the Bell System, which has advanced a cellular solution to radio telephone service expansion, and many radio common carriers, which have pushed the single, powerful transmitter concept to the same end, the other requiring investment beyond their means. It appears that the FCC will favor the cellular concept.

"Testing_ the new radiophones," Business Week, Mar. 28, 1977: 341. A prospect of the next generation of radiophone services, which will operate in reallocated spectrum and make use of a new arrangement of ground stations called a "cellular system". Tests of the cellular concept are being conducted by the Bell System, in Chicago and Newark, and by American Radio Telephone Service Inc., in the Baltimore-Washington area.

The U.S. Mobile Radio Equipment Market, New York: Frost Sullivan Inc., May 1978. The study provides both historical and prospective glances at the mobile radio equipment market which includes land mobile radios and antennas; pagers, private paging systems, and paging transmitters; marine radios; scramblers; CB radios and antennas; and radio scanners. :Through 1980 the aggregate base of mobile radio equipments is expected to grow at a nominal rate; beyond 1980 growth will be rapid. i i

j M©BILE RADIO

Watanabee, S. "Pagers Ride Crest of Mobile Society Wave," 1 Communications News, Nov. 1978: 89. i A

An encouraged look at developments in the i pocket pager market. The article points to an experimental satellite paging service interconnecting Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York; reduction in the size of pocket pagers; and multi-readout and multi-address R & D as indicators of the market's good health.

Write, C.E. "Mobile Radio's Cautious Growth," Telecommuni- cations, Aug. 1977: 10. The article points to the impending battle between those that espouse cellular land mobile systems and those that espouse centralized, high-powered land mobile systems. The .Bell System,` a major proponent of the cellular concept, has obtained 350 land mobile plant construction permits during the last year, increasing its market share and its ability to affect market decisions.

1 PRICE ELASTICITIES

Davidson, P. "various in-house. price elasticity studies," in-house documents, May 1974, June 1976, and Nov. 1976. Various price elasticity studies conducted by or in concert with Paul Davidson, a frequent consultant to Western Union in econometric/price elasticity matters. Included are derivations of price elasticities for public message and money order services, voice-originated Mailgrams, and nIX.

Interconnection - an economic impact analysis, Washington: 07-five of Telecommunications policy, 1973: 93-110, 326-341. An analysis of cross elasticity between a variety of products or service concepts among which, in combination, gaging and mobile radio, facsimile and videophone, and business protective alarms and CATV or videophone. In addition, price-demand elasticity analyses of, for example, facsimile devices, mobile telephones, and tone/voice one-way pagers are included. It is noted that any analysis of demand is incomplete without recognition that demand is often created by imaginative and aggressive marketing.

Johnson, H.R., and J.R. Wilkinson, AdvancedWESTAR and TDRSS Market Stu dy, in-house document, July 16, 1975. An internally conducted study assessing the demand for satellite channels through the year 1990 and estimating the price elasticity of demand for such services. The study provides a logical jumping-off point for further evaluation of price elasticity and traffic statistics.

Lage, G.M., and J.D. Rea, A Time Series Analysis of the D nd for Telecommunications Services f rom the United States to e nitecT—Kingdom, Washington: Office of- Telecommunications Policy, Aug. 1975. -'the study identifies and quantitatively measures the determinants of demand for telecommunications services. Involved are the development of a theoretical model of the behavior of the users of telephone, telegraph, PRICE ELASTICITIES I and telex services and the econometric specification and estimation of equations lne4suring observed, past behavior. It is concluded, at least in the present instance, communications between the U.S. and the U.K., that telephone and telegraph services are price inelastic and that telex service is price elastic.

i Golomb, S.W. "Some Scenarios on Communications by the Year 2000," Astronautics z Aeronautics, Jan. 1976: 66-69. Three scenarios of communications in the year 2000. In one instance advanced communications will be used to monitor the daily activities of the citizenry, in another to make univer- sally available those services of the new technology that are communicable, and in a third to maintain a given standard of living in the face of decreased availability of natural resources.

Marsten, R.B. "Service Needs and Systems Architecture in Satellite Communications,`' IEEE Communications Society Magazine, May 1977: 14-23. Projected demand for fixed and broadcast satellite capacity provided by North American domestic satellite systems through 1989. Beyond 1989, the article finds, 18/30GHz satellite systems will have to be implemented if all reasonable demands are to be met _. The article also suggests that a need for 60GHz and 90GHz satellite systems will materialize before 2000.

Pritchard, W.R. "Is Satellite Communications a viable Market?," Telecommunications, Mar. 1978.

Forecasts of the number and value of new satellite and earth station purchases worldwide through 1988. Not included are the costs of launch vehicles and of research and development. The article concludes with the supposition that fiber optics will not be economical for most of the applications for which satellite systems are now being contemplated.

Stamminger, R. A 25 - Year Traffic Forecast for Domestic and Regional Satellite Communications, Dedham, MA: Horizon House international, Oct. 1977.' A model-derived forecast of domestic communications satellite traffic requirements for the+year 2002. The total global traffic requirements cor- respond to 1800 present-day C-band transponders

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and 140 direct broadcast channels ( 50 dperating spacecraft). The article con- eludes with a discussion of the satellite systems that may be operating by the year 2002. •

5-Year Forecast for Commercial Communications Satellites the Congestion o the Geos Arc, Gaithersburg, ure Systems Inc., Nov. 1,977, A conceivable arrangement of geostationary satellites in the year 2002. The study maintains that 18/30GHz satellites will carry video conference and high-density telephone traffic in 2002. Only AT&T, Telesat, and a video con- feren_cing entity are expected to position 18/30GHz satellites in the orbital arc practicable for U.S. communications.

t and Satellite Communications 1978-2003, A unities, Gaithersburg, MD: Future Systems nc., May lyiu. The report anticipates how the changing world environment, which will see significant and disproportionate population growth and soaring energy costs, will affect demand for satellite communications. It is expected that future satellite systems will provide video conferencing, electronic mail, facsimile, electronic news, database, financial transaction, order entry, inven- tory control, and other information services in addition to the conventional telephony services. Projected transponder demand through the year 2003 is provided for some of these services. k

SATELLITZ/EARTF STATION TECHNOLOGY

Baer, W.S. "Telecommunication Technology in 1980s," in Communications for Tomorrow, Policv Persoec s for the w Yorg Fraeger, Descriptions of some of the advances in telecommunications technology that can be expected during the 1980s. Of all technological changes, the article finds, covergence of communications and computing technologies will have the most profound effects on telecommunications in the 1980s. The article notes, however, that the introduction and commercial growth of any technological improvement will be determined by requirements for compatibility with the existing network, by availability of capital, by depreciation policies, and by regulatory constraints than by their technical "ripeness".

"Bell Labs Conducts High-Frequency Satellite Studies with New Antenna," Communications News, Sept. 1977. The article lays out the reasons for which Bell Labs has constructed an ultra-sensitive radio antenna: to determine if 18/30 GHz satellite systems will operate reliabl y , tc evaluate discrimination at a single receive point of signals of the same frequency arrivin g from different satellites, and to study radio signals emanating from beyond the solar syZtem.

Brandinger, P.E. 11 20-30 GHz Communication Satellite Systems Design, ICC 78 Conference Record, vol. 1, June 1978. A discussion of the various means by which 18/30 GHz satellite systems can be designed to minimize the effect of rain attenuation. Availability can be increased by site sity, store-and -forward transmission,.N1, angle diversity (multiple satellites), inter-satellite crosslinks (especially in global sys- • tems), up and downlink optimization on board multi-band satellites, and steep ele- vation angles (satellite positioning over i land masses).

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SATELLITE/EARTH STATION TrCHNOLOGY I Cooper, R. Future Communications Satellite.S stems, NASA/ Goddatid Space slight Center, Nov. 1977.

A discussion of technological problems facing future satellite communications applications. Identified in the article are the problems of orbital spacing, propagation, and higher prime power for spacecraft. The article also discusses space shuttle launch costs and public service space platforms.-

Covault, C. "Platform Design for Numerous Uses," Aviation week and Space Tec nooay, June 19,

A description of a geosynchronous space platform that could carry the U.S. satellite communications capability. The space platform would house multiband capacity equivalent to several current single-purpose communications satellites. K-band, the article suggests, could support electronic mail and data transfer. The article notes that the communications capability would become more vulnerable to attack under such an arrangement.

DiFonzo, D.F. Introduction to Commercial Communications satellite Systems, Boston University and the Institute for Advanced Pro..essional Studies, Nov. 1977. A brief description of the AT&T, RCA, SBS, and WU satellite systems. In addition, the article discusses the relationship between orbital and launch vehicle parameters on the one hand and future satellite design on the other.

Edelson, B.I. "Global Satellite Communications," Scientific American, Feb. 1977: 58-73. A primer on basic satellite communications. Using the Intelsat system to illustrate specific points, the article goes into spacecraft and earth station design, means of transmission, and operations and economics. international traffic, the article holds, will grow at a 15% annual rate.

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SA^ELLI:'EIEARTH STATICN TECHNOLOGY

Fordyce, S.W., and L, Jaffe, "Future Communications Concepts; The Switchboard-in-the- Sky," Part I, Satellite Communications, Feb. 1976, Depicting the orbital crowding of C-Band spacecraft in Region 11, the article spec- ulates that a like situation will, occur when Ku- and K-band generation spacecraft are launched. The article predicts that multiple, non-overlapping spot beams and orbital platforms will be implemented in anticipation of these recurrin g instances of overcrowding.

A Forecast of Space Technology, 1980-2000, NASA SP-367, Jar.'1976. A detailed forecast of the future of apace technology in the united States during the last quarter of the 20th cen- tury. Although the re port does not focus on communications satellite technology, it does provide projections of synchronous orbit satellite data transfer rates and transmission costs through the year 2000.

Gustin, H.J. Small Aperture Earth Stations for Domestic Thin Route Applications, Bell Minufacturing Co. Nov. 1977. An examination of low cost earth stations whose characteristics are appropriate for thin route satellite communications. Cost is identified as an overriding concern.

Hilsen, N.B., L.D. Hola.and, R.E. Thomas, R.W. Wallace, and J.G. Gallagher, "Millimeter Wave Satellite Concepts," NASrV Lewis Research Center, Sent. 1977. The paper identifies the techniques on which development and commercial imple mentation of a millimeter wave communications satellite depend. For each technology an assessment of risk is made

i SATELLITE/EARTH STATION TECHNOLOGY 1 Hyde, Communication Satellite Antenna Technolo , Boston Univeris ty and the Institute for Advanced Pro sional Studies, Nov. 1977. A discussion of the relationship between rain depolarization, rain attenuation, and frequency re-use on the one hand, and earth station antenna characteristics on the other.

Kelly, R.L. Low Cost Ku-Band Earth Terminals for Voice /Data/ Facsimile, Fairchild pace and Electronics Co. 0 Nov. Text providing cost and application data for Ku-Band earth terminals.

Kiesling, J.D., B.R. Elbert, W.B. Garner, and W.L. Morgan, "A technique for modeling communications satellites," Comsat Technical. Review, vol. 2, no. 1, Spring 1972: 73-98. The paper presents a model of the apace segment of a representative communications satellite system. With the model it is possible to formulate parametric relationships among satellite power, mass, and cost.

Lombardo, P. Recent Developments in C and Ku Band Station Receivers, LIAR Communications, Inc., Nov. 1977. A technical review of the amplifiers and receivers operating in the C and Ku downlink bands.

Morgan, W. L, "Communications Satellites - 1973 to 1983," ICC 78 Conference Record, vol. I, June 1978. The paper reviews the current status os fixed, maritime mobile, and broadcasting -satellites. Orbital conjestion, the obvious consequence of the accelerated launch of the single-purpose satellites, will be obviated, the article suggests, by the development of orbiting antenna farms. SATELLITE/EART8 STATION TECHNOLOGY

Mundie, L.G., and N.E. Feldman, The Fe asibili Preeuencies between 20 and 300 GHz for hart - ant& Monica, CA: Rand Corpora n,

A report prepared for the Defense Communi- cations Agency inquiring into the feasibility of using frequencies above OGHz for military satellite communications. Much of the report is devoted to the development of a model for estimating the Ptatistical distribution of weath er- induced outages as a function of data rate and downlink frequency. The -model points to rapid performance degradation as the ele- vation angle of the user terminal falls below 300 (fn the riven configuration) and the downlink frequency increases. The article concludes, however, that annual throughput will increase materially if the high-frequency outages can be tolerated. The model was developed for Washington, D.C., a region with relatively high rainfall, but could be exten- ded to any location where weather data are available.

Myers, D. "Satellite communications - a down-to-earth clim.pse of the 1980s and beyond, Telephony, May 22, 1978; 27-31. Recording the transactions of the 7th American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics Satellite Communications Systems Conference, the article points to several issues of growing concern to observers of the communications satellite manufacturing industry - too many suppliers (too few buyers), heavy pressure from optical fiber technology, precedence of political considerations over technological ones. Becoming more cheerful, the article identifies three prospective technological events that will promote satellite communications in the 1980s the use of satellites for video broadcasting and conferencing; the use of R-band frequencies and, in conjunction, small, low-cost earth stations; the use of the space shuttle as a launch vehicle, freeing manufacturers of some spacecraft design constraints.

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i SATELLITE/EARTH STATION TECHNOLOGY "Technology of the 1 80s," Telephony, June 12 1 1973:

T 4nscrip t of an interview with W.O. Baker, pre si derit of bell Telephone Laboratories. ,Dr. Raker considers the turns technological research, especially that dealing with satellites and memory devices, may take in the 19808.

Rogers, T.F. NASA's_Future Role in S pace Telecommunications, Washington: National Research Council, Nov. M7. An identification of telecommunications research programs which could be suitably undertaken by NASA.

Scott, W.G. Communication Satellite Multibeam Antennas, Boston University and the Institute or Advanced Professional 'Studies, Nov. 1977. A discussion of frequency band re-use accomplished by means of multiple beam spacecraft antennas. There may either be several, dif- ferently pointed, broad-shaped area coverage beams or many narrow pencil beams, each pointed in a different desired direction.

Technolo^a Priorities for Future Satellite Conanunications, NASA Goddard Space F' ight Center, July 1978. A compilation of satellite communications R & D projects more suitably undertaken by NASA, which is able to enter upon high- technology, high-risk activities, than by private industry. Subjects of a comprehensive NASA investigation would incaude p system analysis and synthesis, multibeam antennas, low-cost user terminals, inter- I satellite links, and propagation. The 'report maintains that saturation of the 4/6 GHz band will occur in 1984, of the combined 4/6 and 11/14 GHz bands in 1990, and of the combined 4/6, 11/14, and 18/30 GHz bands shortly after the year 2000. Means of retarding saturation are suggested. a

SATELLITEZEARTH STATION TECHNOLOGY

"Telecommunications - Orbiting a New Market," Electronic News, May 30, 1977. The article considers the market for small earth stations, a market whose value, one source has projected, will increase five- fold between 1977 and 1985. By the following year, 1986, there will be approximately 7500 rooftop earth stations in place, 375 of which pointed to the SBS satellite system.

Tillotson, L.C. "A Model of a Domestic Satellite Communication System," Bell System Technical Journal, Dec. 1970 (manuscript submitted July 12, 1968): 7111-2136. A study conducted by Bell Labs to evaluate the potential of a 50-satellite communications system operating on a multibeam basis in the 15 to 40 GHz ran ge. Of interest is the reported finding that 110- to 20-mile earth station diversity is a sufficient safeguard against down time due to rain attenuation.

The University of Dayton Research Institute, Space Broadcast. Communications TechnoloQ y Value Assessment Methodolo g y Stud', 14ASA Contract NAS3-20365, 1978. The study was undertaken to develop a methodology that could be utilized by NASA to facilitate selection of the most appropriate space communications tec,- nologies for R & D support. Forecasts of the growth of all significant elements in the U.S. telecommunications system were prepared, interactions among these elements were identified, and both were incorporated into a cross impact model. From a large number of runs, statistical pictures of the future were developed.

Van Trees, H.L., E.V. Hoversten, and T.P. McGart}r "Communications satellites: looking to the 1980s," Spectrum, Dec. 1977: 43-51. i The article, whose technical complexity makes it somewhat inaccessible, considers the areas of technology that are likely i

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SATELLITE/EARTH STATION TECHNOLOGY 0 1 to have a significant impact on satellite communications applications and services in 'the 1980s. Areas covered are launch vehicles and satellite "busses"; antennas; on-board processing; intersatellite links; multiple access; error control; terminals, sources of coding, and multichannel processing; and terrestrial interface and interconnection.

White, W., and M. Holmes, "The Future of Commercial Satellite Communications," Quest (the quarterly journal of TREW Defense and Space Systems Group), Spring 1978: 46-67. A thoughtful account of the current dispo- sition of satellite communications. Dis- cussed are the specific orbital spacing characteristics of communications satellites, notably those operating at 18/30 GFiz, and the susceptibility of high-frequency satellites to signal loss during thundershowers. At 18/30 GHz, the article finds, a rain margin of at least 25dB may be required along the eastern seaboard, where a large fraction of total traffic is located. Various means of circumventing signal loss are discussed. The article concludes that the future will bring "higher frequencies, bigger satellites, and digital communications".

Wright, D.L., and J.D. Kiesling, "Communications Satellite Ser- vices for Special Purpose Users," in Telecommunications & Economic Development, Exposition Proceedings, vol. I, of the first International Telecommunications Exposition, Atlanta, Oct. 9-15 1977, (Dedham, MA: Horizon House Int.): 200-208. The paper identifies potential satellite services, specifically TV and radio distribution, video teleconferencing, audio/ facsimile teleconferencing, multiplexed data/voice, land mobile, and TV and ,radio broadcasting; examines the technology necessary for their efficient implementation; and determines minimum service cost versus user network size. Included is a schedule of prospective launch vehicle costs expressed in 1976 dollars. SATELLITE/EARTH STATION TECHNOLOGY ADDENDUM

Crombie, D.D. "Direct Satellite Communications," Lowering Barriers To Telecommunication:, Growth, Washington: U.S. partment of Commerce, Office of Telecommunications, Nov. 1976. A discussion of spectrum and orbit resource limitations and the effects they may have on the public service sector's ability to obtain telecommunications services sufficient to meet its neods. Economic and technical conditions generally favorable to the public service sector are specified.

"Japan extends Technology Program," Aviation Week & Space Technology, Oct. 17 0 1978: 104-108. A sketch of the probable course Japanese com- r,=ications entities will follow in imple- menting a domestic communications satellite sy:3tem. Although it is clear that they intend to establish a multiple-satellite broadcast/ communications capability in the 1980's, it appears ^ghat they will defer a decision on spacecraft characteristics and operating frequencies until data collected from the first two satellites, which will operate at 20/30GHz and 30/35GHz, respectively, have been evaluated.

Posner, E.C. Information and Communication in the Third Mil- lennium, Pasadena; CA: Jet Propulsion Laboratory, July 24, 1978. Amplification of a talk given at the Communi- cations Society Communication Theory Workshop held in April 1978. It is predicted that point-to-point satellite trunking will become outmoded, guided waves, especially optic fibers, taking over heavy traffic routes. The same optic fiber networks are expected to impact commercial broadcasting, first class postal delivery, and newspaper publishing. Finally, it is proposed that satellites will not become passe{; they will serve as the primary instrument of a burgeoning mobile communications market.

.y SATELLITE/EARTH STATION TECHNOLOGY ADDENDUM 1 "Satellite Communications Advancing Without Federal Develop- ment Funds, But National Lead Will Not Be Sustained Long, Survey Respondents Say," Telecommunications Reports, vol. 44, no. 30, July 31, 1978: 43-45. The results of an Office of Science & Tech- nology Policy survey on the federal role in satellite communication research and development. Fearing that private R&D will not sus- tain U.S. technological leadership, especially in the area of satellite ground terminals, beyond the next few years, respondents maintained that government should undertake to develop advanced technology that is too risky for private industry. Needed variously, they said, were new infrastructure, greater channel capacity, lower circuit cost, and in some cases, operations at 20/30GHz, multiple spot beams, multiple accessing, and satellite-to- satellite relay by laser link. • +

STATISTICS

American Hospital Association Guide to Health Care Field, Chicago: American Hospital Association, 1976. An alphabetical listinc by state and city of approximately 700P hospitals in the United ' States. Shown for each entry are number of beds, number of admissions, number of employees, percent occupancy, and payroll expenses.

Area Economic Projections 1990, Washington: U.S. Department of Commerce - Soc al and Economics Statistics Administration, Bureau of Economic Analysis, 1975. The document provides projections of personal income, employment, and population in 1980 and 1990 for 426 geographic areas which cover the nation and for another 226 areas which represent different group- ings of the 426. 'Historical data for selected years back to 1950 are also included.

The Budget of the United States Government - Fiscal Year 1979, A endx, Washington: Executive Office of the President, Office of Management and Budget, Jan. 1978. The document contains detailed information on the various appropriations and funds that comprise the budget. Included for each agency are the proposed text of appropri- ation language, budget schedules for each account, explanations of the work to be performed and the funds needed, proposed general provisions applicable to the appropriations of entire agencies or groups of agencies, and schedules of permanent, positions.

City Employment in 1976, Washington: U.S. Department of Com- merce - Bureau of the Census, July 1977. The pamphlet provides municipal employment and payroll data by function, population +^. ! size-group, and city of 50,000 population or more. t la STATISTICS

City Government Finances in 1975-76, Washington: U.S. Department, of Commerce - Bureau of the Census, Sept. 1977. The pamphlet provides municipal revenue and expenditure data by population size-group and city of 50,000 population or more. Addi- tional financial data is shown for the largest 48 cities.

Consumer Expenditure Patterns, vol. I: Food, Household Supplies, Personal and Health Care Products, New York: The Conference Board, 1978. The first of two volumes showing how the American family spends its money. Covered in the present document are volume expenditures for food and related items, as well as housekeeping supplies, and personal and medical products. The findings were based on a survey conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics over a two-year period ending in mid=-1974, updated in part by the authors to reflect the demographic characteristics that prevailed in 1977.

Governmental Finances in 1975--76 0 Washington: U.S. Department of Commerce - Bureau of the Census, Sept. 1977. The pamphlet provides the gross balance sheet data of federal, state, and local government. Revenue data are further shown by state and source and expenditure data by state and function.

A Guide to Consumer Markets, 1977/1978, New York: The Conference Board, 1978. A standard source of statistical information concerning the consumer - his demographic and social profile and his economic behavior. : Areas covered include population, labor, and employment trends and characteristics; consumer income and expenditure patterns; and the production, distribution, prices, and price indexes of consumer goods and services. in several cases historical and projectional data are provided. 1 i i i

STATISTICS

The 1977 Dow Jones-Irwin Business Almanac, Homewood, IL: Dow Jones-Irwin, Jan. 1977. The document is comprised of a series of articles and tables concerning regulatory and legal affairs, regional and population trends, and economic/business statistics.

The 197788 Fortune Double 500 Directory, Chicago: Time, Inc., 1978, The document ranks by sales the 1000 largest industrial corporations and 50 largest retailing companies; by assets the 50 largest commercial banking, life insurance, and diversified financial companies, and utilities; and by operating revenues the 50 largest transportatioA companies.

Podolsky, A., and C.R. Smith, Education Directory, Colleges s Universities: 1977-78, Washington: National Center or Educa- tion StaMstics, 78. The document provides a variety of statistical information on institutions of higher learning. Compiled is the number of such publicly and privately controlled institutions by state, sex of student body, calendar system, and accredi- tation. Also compiled is an alphebetical listing of same by state.

Statistical Abstract of the United States, Washington: U.S. Department of Commerce - Bureau of the Census, 1976, 1977. The standard summary of statistics on the social, political, and economic organization of the United States. The data are compiled from many statistical publications, both public and private.

Statistical Reference Book, Data Entr /Data Communications Equipment, Waltham, MA: International Data Corp.,.July 1976. f 1 A reference book providing growth statistics for data entry/data communications devices. The installed base for such devices is expected ^o grow at 20 - 25% annually through 1980. STATISTICS i Statistics of Communications Common Carriers, Washington: Federail Communications Commission, 1975. The document provides a variety of statistical information concerning telephones in 'place, • telephone distribution, inside and outside plant, telephone calls and record messages, and common carrier revenues and expenditures. In most cases historical data are provided.

Statistics forof States and Metropolitan Areas, Washington: U.S. Department Commerce - Bureau of the Census, 1977. The document provides a variety of statistical information for states, divisions, regions, and standard metropolitan statistical areas (SMSA,). For each state, 195 statistical items are provided; comparable totals are shown for Census divisions and regions and the United • States.For each SMSA, a corresponding selection of statistical items is shown.

The United States Budget In Brief - Fiscal Year 1979, Washington: Executive Office of the President, Office of Management and Budget, Jan. 1978. The document provides a nontechnical overview of the 1979 U.S. Budget. Included are summary and historical tables on the federal budget and debt, together with graphic displays. Y .

VALUE ADDED SERVICES

"AT&T is preparing national data net with easy access," Data Communications, Sept. 1977: 15-16. The article describes the general architecture of AT&T's Advanced Communications System, noting that the system ' s basic components - No. 4 ESS switches, digital intercity transmission facilities - are currently available but in some other employ.

"AT&T Makes First Move in Advanced Communications Service Drama," EMMS, Aug. 1, 1978: 1-4. A newsletter analysis of AT&T's Advanced Com- munications Service, whose first nodes may become operational as early as 1980. The service will handle code conversion, data editing and format- ting, message switching, and incompatible terminal interfacing. By 1983, AT&T's request for rule- making states, ACS will generate revenues of $500 million annually. Noted in the analysis is the thorny issue of regulating hybrid services.

Communications Markets and Strategies, New Yorks " Quantu^r, science orp., : Vol. 11 1 93-126. The study outlines the services offered by five value added carriers - AT&T, Graphnet, ITT, Telenet, and Tymnet, It is proposed that packet switching, which is the principal means of data transfer of all five carriers, is the natural vehicle for electronic mail sources.

Criner, J.C. "VANS - Current Regulatory Issues," Telecom- munications, July 1978. The article, observing that the Communications Act of 1934 does not provide specific guidance for regulators of value added common carriers, recites the major instances of rule-making that have shaped the value added network environment. Principal issues have been resale /sharing, maxi-- mum separation of data processing functions from communications functions, and determination of a realistic boundary between monopoly and competition.

^^a VALVE ADDED SERVICES

Gamble, R.B. "VAN Services in the U.S.," Telecommuni- cations, July 1978: 49-54. f 'The article provides a roster of Value Added Networks which, as a whole, will reach billion dollar proportions during the 1960's. Descrip- tions of three types of VAN service are provided - terminal-to-computer, record message, and voice/data.

Hovey, R.B. "The user's role in connecting to a value added network," Data Communications, May/June 1974: 35-40. A primer on packet-switching technology. Through- out, reference is made to the case of Telenet.

Johnson, T. "Projecting the future roles of packet- switching networks," Data Communications, July/Aug. 1976: 18-23. Thg article sets forth a possible course of events for packet switching. Whereas to date only the boldest and most advanced users have transferred major applications to pub3ic packet-switching facilities, it is expected that within the next few years the population of terminals connected to packet-switching networks will include those installed in the home. The scenario, conceived in 1976, is not in accordance with observable fact as of this writing.

"A Look at Message/Packet Switching," Telecommunications, Jan. 1978: 44-52. A synthesis of responses supplied by message- switching and packet-switching entities to questions regarding market strategy, technical innovation, market potential, etc.

Packet Data Communications, Gathersburg, MD: Future ystems Inc. (with Digits Communications Corp.), May 1977. A'two-volume report on packet data communications. The first volume covers packet- switching technology, the Telenet and ITT Com-Pak networks, access arrangements, interface options, pricing structures, and service applications. The second volume contains reprints of articles on the subject.

i r VALUE ADDED SERVICES

Packet Data Communications, Gathersburg, MD: Future ystems Inc. with Digital Communications Corp.), dune 1978. An updated version of FS1 1 s 1977 report on Packet Data Communications. Added to the earlier report are descriptions of several new packet-switching networks: Tymnet (United States), Datapac (Canada), and Transpac "Trance).

Roberts, L.G. "Development of Packet Switching Networks Worldwide, " Telecommunications, Oct. 1976.

The article, making the case for a public data communications network service, addres- ses the design of a public packet - switched network. The article concludes with examples of packet network services.

"Study Says Packet Switching is Cheapest," Electronic News, Mar. 27, 1978: 27. The article, setting forth the findings of a recent study of Department of Defense communications requirements, maintains that packet switching makes possible a less costly integration of voice and data operations than do either standard or hybrid circuit-snitching arrangements. Determinative in selection were the observation of trends showing that the cost of computerized switching is decreasing faster than the cost of communications transmission, that digital transmission and multi- plexing equipment are becoming less expensive than comparable analog gear, and that the practicable bit rate of voice digitization equipment is falling.

Value Added Network Services, Menlo Park, CA: INPUT, ec. The study, which forsees a $1 billion Value Added Network Service industry by 1982, identifies the services that may be provided k on a VAN basis and the major potential providers of such services over the next five • years. Although WU is currently the largest supplier of VAN services, it is expected that AT&T will become the dominant supplier when it introduces ACS. Although the availability VALVE ADDED SERVICES

o!f SSS-tyre w.deband facilities will substan- tially affect the growth of VAN services, it is expected that such availability will only benefit those users that are willing to put their communications networks through major changes.,

White, C.E. "Packet Switching for Past and Secure Data, "Telecommunications, Jan. 1978: 33-38. A catalog of current packet-switching applications and a review of recent technological developments, specifically dual service and packetized speech. The article concludes with a synopsis of future developments.

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"Aetna tries using TV to cut travel costs," Business Week., Mar. 6, 1976: 34-36. A rows-release-type article describing Aetna . Life and Casualty Co.'s role in Satellite Business System's Project Prelude. Ascer- taining that its travel costs will increase 60 to 90% between 1975 and 1980, Aetna estimates that effective use of sophisticated communications, particularly video conferencing, could shave 10 to 25% of this total.

Baer, W.S. Cable Television in the United States--Revoluti,or. or Evolution?, Santa Monica, CA: THe Rand Corporation, F_ . 1974. A pre- satellite interpretation of events within the cable television industry. The paper identifies three principal advantages of cable over broadcast television: significantly more channels, restriction of a channel or a program to a specific audience, and two-way capability. The latter, the paper notes, may not generate much near -term interest, telephone lines, which can also provide a return path, being, obviously, in considerable supply.

Baran, P. Potential Market emand for Two-Way Information Services to the Home: 1990 f Men o Park, CA: The nstitute .tor ure, =9 A description of potential home information services which may be grouped into the following six major categories: education, business conducted from the home, general information access, shopping facilitation, entertainment, and person-to-person communications. Although the article does not give time and place, it can be presumed that direct-to-home satellite broadcasting in the U.S. will not progress beyond the embryonic stage before 1990, Japanese experi- ments to the contrary. 1 "Broad-Band Interactive Communications Services to the ome: Part 11 - Impasse," IEEE Transactions on Com- munications, Jan. 1, 1975: 176-184. 1 An article exploring the impediments presently blocking the development of the potential

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3 a broad-band cable interactive services industry. Key parameters of an "ideal home terminal" are discussed. Circumvention of developmental a roadblocks and design of an "ideal terminal" are seen most expeditiously accomplished through an industry-government "partnership" arrangemeAt. U

Bender, W.G., and P.D. Shapiro Outlook for the CATV Industry Through 1985 8 Cambridge, MA: Arthur D. Little Inc., Dec. 1976. A primer on cable TV. Included are system and subscriber historical and prospective growth statistics; discussions of the future of pay cable, business, and interactive services; and des^.riptions of program supplies, major system operators, and cable TV events outside the United States. The authors pre- dict that the basic cable subscriber popula tion will grow by 1.0 to 1.4 million per year through 1985 and that pay cable will reach a penetration level of 35% by the same year.

Brown, D.M. "Video Conferencing - A Viable Alternative to Travel," Intelcom Conference Papers & Proceedings, Oct. 1977. The paper discusses the evolution of video teleconferencing in Canada and points to probable near-term developments. Users of the first system (1972) found voice switching unreliable and unnatural; the central studio location inconvenient and, as some felt, less secure than home offices; the four-city network geographically inadequate; and projected costs prohibitively high. Bell Canada has since found other means of camera switching than voice activation; developed a trans- portable studio intended for customer premises origination/reception; connected Western Canada to the network by satellite; and engaged in research of video bandwidth compression utilizing digital processing techniques. To date'the service has only been offered on a non-commercial basis.

Cable Television, Federal 'Communications Commission flews Bulletin, May 1970. A summary of rules and regulations governing cable television. Signal carriage, access VIDEO

cablecasting, and copywrite payments are primary considerations. The bulletin, in conclusion, underlines the need for citizen participation in the regulatory process.

Chapanis, A. "Interactive Human Communication," Scientific American, mar. 1975.

Experimental confirmation that problem- solving is almost as quickly accomplished writ), audio teleconferencing as it is with video -r .,udio teleconferencing. This article has been further reviewed and supported in the SRI study, Teleconferencing S ystems: A State-of-the-Art Survey an Preliminary Analysis.

Donnelly, W.J. The Emer inq Video Environment, New York: Young & Rubicam, .978. A pamphlet forecasting the nature of the video environment of the early 1980 1 s. It is projected that 30% of the homes using TV will be hooked up to cable by the end of 1981. 30 penetration, the prospectus goes on, is the critical mass required before an electronic communications medium can become a broad- based advertising medium. Once cable TV begins to attract advertising dollars, commercial broadcasters, of course, will become particularly anxious. The prospectus maintains, however, that advertising support will not fall off for broadcast television, which is designed to reach large market segments and significant customer blocks.

Erikson, A. "Digital TV: when, not if," Electronics, June 23, 1977: 94-95. A status report on the digital television equipment manufacturing arena. By the lnid- 1980s, the report maintains, digital video processing willhave become generally accepted. By that time, too, receivers +^ with digital frame stores may be on the market. i

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Feldman, N.E. Interconnecting Cable Television Systems by Satellite - An Introduction to the Issues, Santa Monica, CA: The Ra Corporation, June 1973. An early paper to anticipate the use of satellite systems in the process of distributing programming to the cable television community. Establishing that both pay television and two- way or interactive television are material to cable's future growth, the paper maintains that only the first arrangement, pay television, will be suited to satellite distribution.

Hough, R.W. and R.R. Panko, Teleconferencing SXstems: A State-of-the-Art Survex and Preliminary Anal sis, Menlo Park, CA: Stanford Researc Institute, April 1977. A general survey of recent studies conducted to evaluate user attitudes toward video teleconferencing. The studies reviewed support the position that public teleconferencing systems do not capture the imagination of potential ,users. Private, in-house systems accommodating frequent, regularly scheduled meetings seem to engender the most enthusiasm.'

Impact of Wideband Channels, New Canaan, CN: International ,Resources Development Inc., Aug. 1977: 67-84, 100-113, 200-203. A discussion, in part, of the various methods by which an illusion of "presence" can be introduced into video teleconferencing, to date a generally disappointing means of communication. Mention is made of SBS entry into the video teleconferencing market. It is indicated that video teleconferencing will form a low proportion of the SBS network loading.

"Informercials, Qubits and Quaint Facts ahput Qube " EMMS, vol. 2, no. 15, Aug. 1, 1978: 10-11. A status report on Warner Cable's Qube, a two- way cable system being test marketed in Columbus, Oh. Underscored is the capability of Qube to measure audience response to advertized products and to tabulate television-viewer statistics. I

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Kahn, A., and Herb Nunnally, Communications in Lieu of Trans ortation, Baltimore: Westinghouse Electric company, Feb. 1977. A, two-phased investigation of user attitudes toward video teleconferencing. The critical test of the teleconferencing concept, it was found, is user acceptance of the teleconferencing room. Preliminary results using the 12/14 GHz Communications Technology Satellite have been generally promising. There have been some problems, however, with voice- switched cameras,

Martin, J. Future Developments in Telecommunications, Englewood Cliffs, NJ: --Prentice-Hall, Inc., 977: Ch. S. A description of AT&T's Picturephone and Picturephone Meeting Service. Neither service has been successful commercially and it is presumed that a thoughtful examination of the psychology of the communications process would explain why. Mention is made of various means by which the bandwidth needed to transmit video signals between central offices can be reduced.

McNair, M.P., and E.G. May, "The next revolution of the retailing wheel," I3 p rvard Business Review, Sept./Oct. 1976: 61-91. Noting that the world of routinely purchased, staple, everyday merchandise is splitting off from the world of more specialized goods and services which involve an element of ego-enhancement, the authors purpose that consumers will eventually prefer to purchase the first type of good electronically, using the time saved to pursue other activities, including the purchase of goods of the second type. They observe, however, that the road to full implementation is not smooth.' A practicable delivery system must be developed; a sufficiently large volume of transactions at start-up must be assured, justifying the significant capital expenditure; and consumers must be convinced that the specter off government scrutiny is illusory. VIDEO 1 i

Potter! J.G. Emerqing Markets for Satellite Data Communications j in the Public Service, San Diego, CA: Public Service Sate to Consortium, Jazz. 1978. The paper estimates the volume of traffic that would be-turned over to satellite in 1962 by six major sectors of the public service community. Video applications, mostly one-way, are likely to predominate.

Pye, R., and E. Williams, "Teleconferencing: is video valuable or audio adequate?," Telecommunications Policy, June 1977: 230-241. The article identifies four factors that are expected to influence the success of a teleconferencing system. Cost considerations, which are a primary factor, generally favor the implementation of an audio conferencing system in those cases where either an audio or video means of communication has been chosen to replace travel. The article concludes that audio is adequate and video is not valuable.

"Rethinking Teleconferencing: On Raising a Cripple From the Dead," EMMS, vol. 2, no. 14, July 17, 1978: 1-6. An assessment of findings made public by SBS following user appraisal of its video teleconferencing services during Project Prelude. The article holds that SBS's failure to evaluate the interchangeability of audio and video teleconferencing alternatives has caused it to prejudge the viability of business video.

"Satellites: tomorrow is here today," Broadcasting, March 27, 1978. A review of broadcasting entities that have entrusted their communications requirements ,to the satellite carriers. One industry observer finds that satellites "are the next logical step in communications" and that developments such as direct -to-home satellite service may be only "10 to 15 years down" the road. ^ r

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Shales, T. "Television in the '80s," The Washington Post, June 18, 1978. Speculations, some serious, some not, on what television will be like in the 1980s by ten sources standing at various points in the ' television industry spectrum. None of the ten entries is particularly informative. In beginning remarks, however, the survey's editor indicates that what really happens will ;depend on the health of the economy and the degree to which the broadcasting industry allows change to occur.

"Southern Satellite's Taylor: It's Rolling Like Gang Buster," The Media. Report, July 31 0 1978: 2. Results of a survey conducted by Southern Satellite Systems to gauge the growth of satellite services delivered to the cable television community. It is expected that the number of satellite channels will increase threefold over the next four years, pay TV channels clearly the head- liners over the next two.

Taylor, J.P., "'Two-way' pay-cable system automates many functiols, including monitoring audience," Television/Radio Age, July B, 1974. An examination of Coaxial Communications Inc.'s simplified two-way pay-cable system in Columbus, Oh. The article proposes that two-way cable services will become available on a step-by-step basis, the first service, ostensibly two-way pay cable, providing a base for the next service, the two then providing a base for the next, and so on. It is expected that alarm and metering, shopping, and polling services will be early adjuncts to the two-way pay cable base. A

"Satellite distribution of TV programming explodes on many fronts," Television/Radio Age, Jan. 30, 1078.

The first in a series of five articles t that look into the possibility of the satellite as a vehicle for video program distribution. The article catalogs the

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ptogrammers that currently avail themselves of satellite distribution, indicating that they, rather than the major commercial networks, were expected to take the back seat when it came to pioneering the use of satellites. The article, in conclusion, poses the question " How will past and prospective satellite developments affect the broadcast industry?" and suggests that a suitable answer may evolve out of the remaining four articles of the series.

, "New flexibility in programming envisioned resulting from upsurge in satellite distribution," Television/Radio Age, Feb. 27, 1978. The second in a series of five articles that look into the possibility of the satellite as a vehicle for video program distribution. The article weighs the liklihood that the broadcasting industry will implement a, satellite distribution capability. It is proposed that the affiliates rather than the networks will start the ball rolling, the former keen on the flexibility of multiple program pickup and the increased independence that come with owning an earth station, Without some affiliate commitment to satellite transmission, it is presumed that an audience level acceptable to national advertisers will not obtain. The future of satellite video distribution is therefore closely tied to what the affiliates do and they, in turn, by what the outriders of satellite video distribution, the PBS ' s and the CBN's and the SIN's, do.

, "'Space shortage', regulations, equipment choice among station concerns as satellite use grows," Television/Radio Age, May 8, 1978. The third in a series of five articles that Xook into the possibility of the satellite as a vehicle for video program distribution. The article suggests that the number of C-band and, eventually, of K-band transponders that would be available to network broadcasters in first and second generation commercial satellites would fall short of the number required to accommodate the full complement of network

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programming, barring video channel compression. Orbital crowding, the need for full, backup on j secondary satellites, the predictable failure of in-orbit transponders - all would frustrate any effort on the part of network broadcasters 1 to "go satellite" in the near future. • "Satellites of the 'b ps will have more channels, power, frequency - but no dramatic changes," Television/Radio Age, June 5, 1978. The fourth in a series of five articles that Look into the possibility of the satellite as a vehicle for video program distribution. The article examines second- and third-generation satellite systems, which will become operational in the 1980x, inquiring particularly into their usefulness as video carriers. With the launch of the second-generation satellites, the article maintains, there should be enough orbiting channels to meet all reasonable video requirements. The article does not see direct-to-the-home broadcasting, launch of satellites by the television networks, or utilization of the 18/30 GHz band for video distribution as probable events.

"Satellite systems of the 1990's will operate from huge pl orms orbiting in space," Television /Radio Ace, July 3, 1978. The fifth in a series of five articles that look into the possibility of the satellite as a vehicle for video program distribution. The article considers the basic characteristics of third- and fourth-generation domsats which will be flying in the 1990's. It is anticipated that these satellites will be fitted for on-board processing, which is more appropriate to highly sophisticated switched communications networks than to broadcast and cable television operations. Television entities may, however, benefit from the head- long charge of technology; third- and fourth- generation satellites will be higher powered offsetting some degradation from multiple- channel transmission and facilitating remote pickups. i

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Television Factbook: Services Volume, No. 47, Washington: Television Digest, Inc., 9 A compilation of radio, broadcast television, and cable television historical data. Inclu- ded are station revenues and expenses, sets in use, stations and CATV systems in operation, and market ranking.

Ten-Year Video Business Plan: 1978 -1987, in-house document, Dec. 1977. A plan analyzing Western Union ten-.year business opportunities in four broad video submarkets- network distribution, occasional use, CATV distribution, and business video. Included in the plan are an overview of the competitive environment, design of a ground-and-space video distribution network, an analysis of cost and investment elements, and an estimation of revenue potential through 1987.

"Three networks bide their time on satellites," Broadcasting, Mar. 27, 1978. A sampling of major network attitudes toward satellite distribution of their day-to-day TV and radio programming. All three major networks are adopting a "wait and see" posture, wary, for one thing, of a curtailment by AT&T of some of its occasional services, leaving what could become a dangerous lack of backup, and, for another, of the effects of sunspots on transmission.

Veith, R. Talk-Back TV: Two-Way Cable Television, Tab Books, Oct. 1976. A lengthy discussion of two-way cable.-services. The author predicts that pay TV will lead the way to a two-way communications environment. Alarm monitoring, limited channel polling, and at-home shopping are considered the most likely two-way services to take hold in the near future. There will be a rivalry, the discussion maintains, between cable TV companies and telephone companies for two-way service franchises.

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Waters, H.E. "TV of Tomorrow," Newsweek, July 3, 197$: 62-74. A popularized prospectus of second-generation television. The general movement toward "narrowcasting", possible responses of the network television/television set industry to cable TV inroads, the shape cable TV itself may take, and the uneasiness of some viewers to a new technology that may alter leisure habits and social arrangements are the article's principal considerations.

Williams# E., and S. Holloway, The Evaluation of Tele rencina_: Re port of a Bell Canada Conference Television System, on: Communications Study Group, 1974. The results of a survey of user attitudes toward the Bell Canada four-city teleconferencing system. Respondents indicated that teleconferencing emphasized the work-oriented aspects of meetings to the detriment of the more inter-personal, socially-oriented aspects, Those who showed a reluctance to traveling long distances felt that teleconferencing was suitable for a wider range of tasks than those who didn't. Contrary to the reported findings of D.M. Brown, the present authors found that attitudes were not effected by the proximity of the teleconferencing studio to respondent premises.

Wilmotte, R.M. Technological Boundaries of Television: Vol. I - Finding s and Recommen ations, Spring iel , VA: National Tech ical In ormation Service, Dec. 1974. A report, prepared for the FCC, seeking to determine what may reasonably be expected of television technology within the next decade. Noteworthy among the new developments are large, flat screens displaying high resolution pictures for home viewing; bandwidth comp- pression; and sub-carrier transmission* of still pictures. Addressing grade of transmission, the report found that for entertainment quality was paramount; for other purposes quality was of little value beyond the point of ease of identifying certain elements of the picture.

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Zaputojycz, R.Z, SMPTE Stud^^ G ou on Digital TV Meeting, in-house memorand^mr. Mar. 29, 197 7. i A review of subjects discussed in meeting by the SMPTE Study Group on Digital TV. Top on the meeting agenda was consideration of various means of bandwidth compression. Those means intended for video teleconferencing, it is noted, presently suffer from motion breakup.

, Digital TV Bandwidth Com cession Study, in- house' d"ocument, May , 977. A consuming analysis of various analog and digital techniques by which satellite transponders can accommodate more than one TV program. General characteristics of the two techniques are cataloged. Although analog compression techniques are more easily and inexpensively implemented than digital compression techniques, they are, by comparison, relatively inefficient. The study concludes, with a projected schedule of digital TV developments as a function of time.

, The Ninth Meeting of the Digital TV Study Group, in-house memorandum, Feb. 26, 1978. A review of subjects discussed in meeting by the SMPTE Study Group on Digital TV. The major networks, the review notes, will not make use of digital transmission services until network quality digital throughput standards have been tariffed and their analog studios have been outfitted digitally, the latter occurring only after their analog equipment has been fully depreciated. Ano- ther major user of satellite video services, the CATV industry, will also shy away from digital transmission, the funds needed to retrofit CATV headends to accommodate digital transmission being beyond the reach of most CATV operators.

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ata and Its Potential Impact in the USA Intern orz - K Experience, New York., Lin in association w ut ew "Partners Limited, London), Aug. 1978. The report describes early experiences in the United Kingdom with Viewdata, an interactive service whose physical components are television sets, the telephone system, and a network of computer bases. The report also considers the likely success of - viewdata in the marketplace, looking first at the domestic market in the UK next at the busin*ss market; third at the pressures acting in and between the Post Office, television set manufacturers, and information providers; and finally at the international market.

t U VOICE ANALOG

i "FDC Analysis = Sensitivity Studies," WATS Rea onse Filina, American Telephone & Telegraph Co., Apr. 29, 1977t vol 0. Five sets of Sensitivity studies performed on WATS data compiled for the 12 -month period ended September 30, 1976. Revenue, investment, market, traffic, and division-of-revenue data are provided in the docu'yient.

"GTE chariman predicts world's telephones to double in 10 years," Telephony, Oct. 31, 1977; 47. Estimates of telephone populations in 1987. In the United States the number of telephones will grow at a 4.6% annual rate, increasing from 149 million to 234 million; in Canada at 7,28 annually from 13 million to 24 millions in rurope at 7.98 annually from 132 million to 282 millions and, overallp at 6.28 annually from 380 million to 736 million.

"Independent Telcos Point to Gains and Pitfalls," Communications News, Dec. 1977: 86-87. The article provides telephone statistics - operating revenues, and numbers of telephones, operating companies, and operating company employees for the years 1966 through 1976. Separate counts are shown for Bell and the Independents. Independent telephone placements and operating revenues have grown at a faster rate than have Bell's counterparts over the eleven year period.

"Market Analyses - Inward and Outward WATS," AT&T 1977 Annual FDC-7 Report, American Telephone & Telegraph o., June 35, 78: Vol.. The study discusses the sources and procedures used to develop historical (1977) and projectional (1978-1.980) market data for Inward and Outward WATS. The study also considers the I' accuracy of earlier projections, comparing the 1976 view of 1977 and the actual demand experienced in 1977. 1 VOICE - ANALOG

"Market Analyses - Inward and Outward WATS," AT&T Docket No. 19128 Response, Central Submission, American Telex one & Telecfraph Co., July Vol._ T. The study discusses the sources and procedures used to develop historical and projectional market data for Inward and Outward WATS. Under consideration are revenues; number of access lines, messages, and minutes; and weekday and weekend percentages. The volume of Outward WATS traffic is at least twice the volume of Inward WATS traffic.

"Market Analyses - MTS Domestic," AT&T 1977 Annual FDC-7 Report, American Telephone & Telegraph Co., June 50, 1978: vol. 10. The study provides historical (1975-1977) and projectional (1978-1980) traffic and revenue data for Bell's domestic Message Telecommuni- cations Service (MTS), detailing the method by which the projectional data are derived. The study also considers the accuracy of earlier projections, comparin g the 1976 view of 1977 and the actual demand experienced in 1977.

"Market Analyses - HTS Domestic and MTS Overseas/International," AT&T Docket No. 16128 Response, Central Submission, American Telephone & Telegraph Co., July 8, 1977: vo . .

The study discusses the forecasting of domestic and non-domestic interstate MTS traffic and revenues, Under consideration are the forecasting methodology used, the development of the MTS message forecasts provided for Docket 18128, and the sources of data relevant to the forecasting process.

"Market Analyses - Private Line Telephone ^Channels and Telpak," AT&T 1977 Annual FDC -7 Re ort, American Telephone & Telegraph Co., June 0, 1978: vol. 4. The study provides historical (1977) and projectional (1978-1980) traffic and revenue data for Bed's Series 2000/3000, 4000, 5100, 5200/ 5300, 5400, and 8000 (voice only) private line offerings. Traffic data are expressed as total channel sections and channel miles per air band.

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VOICE DIGITAL l^

McDonald, J.C. "Local Digital Switching - A Successful New Technology," Telecommunications, Jan. 1978: 69-72. a Digital networks are now being planned where voice is digitized at the subscriber drop and is transmitted in digital form to and through the serving central office. As required, the I local central office will extend the digital signal over a digital toll trunk to the digital toll switch and on to the intertoll network. The use of digital networks will allow telcos to implement end-to-end digital transmission and switching to improve subscriber service at a lower first cost and lower recur- ring costs.

Occhiogrosso, B. "Digitized voice comes of a ge, part 1 - trade-offs," Data Communications, Mar. 1978: 45-'51. The article, underlining the inevitability of digital voice communications, outlines the principal advantages of such transmission - voice/data integration, less degradation, secure communications, reduced bandwidth, and compatibility with computers. Voice quality, voice digitization rates, and equipment costs - all trade-off factors when choosing between analog and digital voice communications - are also discussed..

Sergo, J.R. "An Independent carefully plans the switch to digits: equipment," Telephony, Mar. 13, 1978: 26-28. An independent telephone company examines the approach for introducing digital switching and transmission networks on a district by district basis. The plan is presented from the viewpoint of general application considerations and restrictions with the ration- ale that it may apply to both, this individual company and other operating groups. tven though the plan outlines advantages and disadvantages, the author makes the point that is digital switchin g is here to stay and the growth rate will rapidly establish the service concept nationally. i

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,s _.e,s^_ --: 1911 MC'IM941.1^'Nl^:. VOICE - DIGITAL

s White, C.E. "Hits of Voice," Telecommunications, Apr. 1978: 46-48.1 Although the article describes a new telecommunications voice multiplexer/concentrator for use with private line voice systems, the author delves into the controlling factors, trends, both present and future plus benefits of introducing digital transmission techniques. The economics of in-plant investment within the overall industry is described as the largest deterrent for replacing analog facilities with digital and therefore will inhibit the expansion of digital voice communication systems in the U.S. and Canada.

Yeh, L.P. "Digital Telecommunications Networks," Telecommunications, Aug. 1977: 21-25. A review of the major advantages and disadvantages of digital techniques and of the causes of bit error rates. The basic configuration of a digital network is described. It is con- jectured, however, the the implementation of such networks will be gradual; there is, under- standably, an unwillingness to write off the plethora of existing analog networks. t .

APPENDIX B

MARKET DEMAND FORECASTS

The Appendix contains the detailed forecasts of telecommunications services traffic volumes for the period 1978-2000 for the voice and data. service categories. The traffic volumes are displayed in the two units of measure, thousands of half voice circuits and terabits of data per year. In each computer run, six key time periods are presented 1978, 1980, 1985, 1990, 1995 and 2000, in order to show the long term traffic trends.

For each services' traffic forecast a projection is shown for the:

• Baseline Forecast

• Impacted Baseline - Expected Case

Intrastate Traffic

• Intra SMSA Traffic

• Inter SMSA Traffic less than 40 Miles

o Data Traffic Carried on Voice Facilities

• Net Long Haul Traffic - after removal of traffic to the hinterlands

The discussion of each of these intermediate forecasts and their purpose can be found in Task 2.A, Section 3, methodology, of Volume I1.

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t.Ialler ►or^erat Data Catejort (Trlratltl per tear)

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JI! r N !fJY r frlf ff lJ frA1 IY'YYIRf /M r T a Of K IIr.7 1•I.1 1+7,7 )r,,• 11+., 1C•.^ •••,) •`1.0 M lrlf f I ! r !fIRl16 1•.f tt.+ 1•.t 1+ 10.1 ^••.: • .+ R'J{C fffrJw.: r0 r f/v ► ...... •: f...... • It:...... {:::...... rit...... , t:...... :t:Y...... ^i`:...... t:.... :OffL Jf` f RI-TIYr 1tt,f )17.a "7.7 7+3.+ 1+7,t +` . srrS^ t.JT"wltC ...... :::...... :.:...... ::...... :::...... -...---... ..:::.w...... ::. !\'_1_L- _..1L 1L _ ..liy 12 ] SLLI 1,7),{ 11It,• )11 ^'I.^^.^ I • ,Jtr •II,f 1.1^ff

^ . I aw.l;l'..I.-;v, ..rrf J • / flare t^'r C9Y fr ' • ff +7.- ,7.) 1r1.• 11•.• 1•,y,, .,• w 1•V,+ 77+.•

.fD-..fDI •r„ r•-r• Ywr. ^.+ +.• 7,Y ^. ., ••+ ,.. 1•^• r^ :r•t.l r,.. Va.. l ., Jf.r {J^ ••]T f ' :'lwr• ...... : i: ...... i•...... _......

N......

t TTY r^+rr^•+1^^ . .. + i • .. . +

•......

.. w.. h f^AM(f! eMl-r1 ...... I

.. .. J' I'! a.w.• t^,t,n 1111.7 1••7•\ IScr•r ,]. . 1a\,,w ,' .1 "IryIc= Gswr, IV irss ►¢.Y- MMllas ftrw61 au c•1Mer7 ( frrulu Mr 1..r) 1

.,• tr•., 7•w a „ 1 . \,f ► 1\7),7 171 ► .1 1111.1 1 .,.,, r.. { {•{ • ...,. 414.. {{s,t 47{., •,",f

•t,, • ,\ ,• • + 1t•,1 4)t .l 44).1 1 oil. s

•-1. { ► '+,1 r1t.1 441,\ 1 417.1 411.• ...... ::...... ••.•li...__...: iii••N•••.::::...... _:::^.....•..::i:.....•.i.:i^_ .l;:t:. 1'I 1'7+. ► '•.1,1 P11.,t '- .. )4)-.7 •111.1 H 1:.7

'fr 1+'.. 11'•.1 174,, 111.1 111.1 1+).) ts).7 Tip.• • ..1.• ^" .^ 441.4 4,4.1 i)t.1 4fG.t „7•, 117.1

141. 4 ,, ,.•, .• s ► 4.s •11.7 1or7.r 1)11.4 j

{1• w trt,1 17• , „^.) `+\i.r Ill).{ 1\Sl.{ 17}}.} \• • ,+ tt. t+.7 4+.1 141.• 17.0 IOf.! ___...!...:_...... _-..._....: ...... :: ::^--..•.- :::::.- »--.:::::• ♦ „ , r • .i 1^ ► 1.S t7" . 1)11.4 IS1t. ► Stf7.• T7`t.1 " .7 `1 1 4t ♦ •- • {t,t 11n.1 lsf.4 )"i.]

74 \1 ,• S7 t.• 414).• •1f 7.S s•11.e i0)+.f 1117.7 rt^•.7 f --► - _ •fir

.. , ,..1 ► • ► t7.• 1T.• !C).S 11s.1 1)7.1 • •• •• r•,t st,n 41,4 7S,) 17).1 ^ /'ter...... „--rr•-. •r i t . t +1.• ){,I T•.t r1.n • .'• 41.5 ts.^ •.r,1 ► ► 1.• •t.} •+.4 •s.r 101.7 111.1 111,1

• '3. 4 t1^,, .. ,,,,, •1:.r 110.. 111•.1 1701.4

• -rrrr 7.1 •.4 7.t 7.t 7.7 7.0 ,. •.r 741.. {t , ,.,!.1 {r, { ► T.1 ] 1Jf\.] ^]' 17)'1.• 151.5 T].r l ^r-r•r 4 In,t,4 r 1). • ► •.1 Ht,• rts.r . . 17)•.4 1)'7.0 101,,• 174:.• 14 17.5 11-I.t t^l:." 7117.E J1•:.7 TS:f.r

t\I.r 1/n,t }p^ r., • ^•,,, ..,, •:,.) 171.7 r• f•-t r• ^f7/ -1 !1{Ir/^f _•__•__.::!._..._..::::«.....! .:...... :...... :::...... _...... :I.::. 1^1,S 74r,, 11n,• v.t,n .7r,4 ,1•,J 411.7 7 41.1

14.1 7•,{ ► 7,7 41.7 •t.} 1^.^ 10, .7 11 :+.5 4 r !' J!<• • Y^^^r 4 7.• 41.7 ?4.• 11•.1 1}l,) 111.4 71].7 !4•.f ...... •...... •...... ^.!..._.»...... ^._ »...:^. 111.4 1V . - 177.4 7nn.1 77).1 7.4.4 )01.0 1},.)

. t . f .. ,_ ^lr tTI,.t ln•,,4 7,44.4 177 1.s -r-t .111.1 tll ► ,7 4447.1 fns77.1 ►

i R y I 1 I7^ Ml1M C AI I I I I PC-"-

gasoli ne refecaat

Date category

(14braalto per Saa/)

--•a,1 )f.- ..^ . • V • 4,t al'7,6 177)144 41'1.6 '. 13. 1' • 1,1 Itt'. 1•f'.1 1{%••.• Ito {,e 1711.! 12\•.1 7\:..•

10;1'0. ! ► _ .1' 171'4^ I1• {.• 14.1.4 1GT6.e 1071.6 7.71.2 ?l••.c 1••1.1 "vu 1r•t• %r,• Q ► 1{,f a ),1 X6,4 10t,6 114.7 151,1 151.\

r+•, • C;1 •IA .fyr ^ " .• Itt 17'1.1 fa•. . .4^,.1 .:71.7 7!a'.. }••:,1

•1 . I ^j.• a /^. ^/^,6 • ► %6 1 7.7 1:)4.6 0e•1.: 17.\7,4 17006.0 131ai.3

2 1 1. 1 791.0 11'.V^ or 2,• 311.1 f167.1 I11.0 •1'•6 A - V.

4. 1444 • 11•`.• ,t. t6!'.\ 1••:.• :11'44 7...... :...... :....•.••...... 4444.. of - 1.1•' tell• 11^1,) 1707,2 111,1 711!.1 155... t/6:.\

♦41.4 ! "1 1 .1 77' 41 .4.1 31"S .. \:73.1 e4)•./ 1• I 17'. • 1!a•a 1" .E i/ft.{ 7"' 156.7 7':.3 7%• ' 4444...... • • ...... :...... :..•..... 4444«4444 .^...... ::..•. Tr • 4j I'?•*A"Ir• 7{ • 4. 4 2^+•.+ 7111.6 5714.+ 4'14," 03\1.1 fo!1.1 fy}1.f

IACr • f J:j'^•lt'

•4 •• . 11 !••.• 1245+.• 1•^16,1 1+117.0 10111.1 2 N41.1 0!17:.1

r A • 'J' J • .' r Arre , .. rlt1!r ?FA•• ;+. ..re....r1•. x•1 . 7 1^1.41 1175.1 I•I5.3 1151.1 1111.1 1371.1 714..• 11•, , .11,• I•'.• 317.% 1\4,• 375.) 3^6.• 2...1 1{ • ,1 179 •. 5^:.! }1:." 571.1 at:.1 ► 4\.' 4)1.1 • ". 7 1•',• I1+." 141.7 1Ia.7 1t .\ 7f e.. . • ••_.: It 13 ► POT - " fry }1 • 17 • .1 11••.4 I".• 1'•1.1 1e'.7 144.+ 1764/ 114,1

•'ftL ^'• 'I^ f' rr A".r•f 51"1.1 1.71.7 !a^'. ;^^'... 7•'7. !!7.41 7'.... 3 1:1,6

Of" ?• L •r•e•' ' • •ff w ...::...... •...I...... ^..w «...._...... Iw,.3•..^..•..•^^••:.':...« •^... w. 6 ,. ...•.1..5...... t.t..^.w ...^.. • ':^w.. 11 {6 :^••....1_ 12 ^ ..142C:» ..^•^^i1:...... 1...:1. 2714,1 3711.^ 071S.r fe/1.\ •1C1.% ft11:.7 4171.0 1\':.2

rT/T-rr- 41 4 4 ? 7774• 11!.7 loss.f 1711.1 1S4c.7 171J.s ec)6.7 DA,-4 C1fRI,4&4S'A ?*Aft e r rA 71.•7 ^1:.7 5:7,7 4c s.6 ... • ft1.S 1!1.! 7114'

?r"4/ 477 . : 1••• 11"1,• ISC3.1 1412.0 77\1.1

'•• Av • rl lr • A""1111 ♦/ ^"t r It' 11 • . 4 11•.1 1•"." 141.,0+ 17'.' 1•••.1 7c:.3 731.) . • "r,A• rnf"• ).,,^ 4\347 1f•,• \•1. {.• 11 .1 t1 ..ft 44!,1 ...__....i :...... ::.. ?^-.• « I •" r l L 4ft•Ar•e 41{. 4 ••1.4 \1.,n .,+,h 714.1 414,1 111.4 11('.41

...... '.,.'., ar.4...... '.;;..'.....'7•, 1 ...... x 4 ...... 41.

ra f tl ft • ..L

1 iLxv7C7 DrmAI10 AESrssmr'r7

Impacted baseline

Data Cetenory - Expected Came Surw ary

(Terabits per tear)

1 .7 1 I•An )gas Iwo^ toes FOw^

3AI41 _I L41'/Sl 1SS109 _ ^Ltl1L^lLta 1•I C- SPFf01wIor 44 N? DATA TeANtf Ee NnN-4"VEeN M fN • IS1.1^^'+ 2114,4 ^nn 549./11^0 ISO4.4nno le, 7..a^ n ^ ^^^ G^VO s N M fv7 14 A n on 171.0n00 171.!000 IARO,)11n^ 4SIC* v*0r9SSIN. h 1.900r IDS 7.o^011 e IeON- nvr e NMENT lvs.401"0 727.Annn 47).2000 99%.9f nn 100).6nnn G ^VE 9 N rr N T 16 n3 ► 1"57.11'1011 21.Snoo 44.401111 9t. 6000 IeS.Mn^ ?Te.4n^n "A • A F •:Tvv IwI:- SFrE111 N^\•'^VFeN M ENT Tx.An^n In4.rnnn J.59.5011r 690.911 ^^ 15.4,01111^ ^vee\M/NT 16.6^^n 71.2110n 4S.Anon I04.1on^ 2141.6'7111 ACC ,411^^ t TAL wlrM SesFn/rinf • 4 6-40 477,91^0 7 SI.2n9" 1764.20 nn M 421S.0onn 91111.7001^ Iv)7),•^n^ 06 % vor 11f E0l r►M S tn[r tJATA It •IvRY 45.)9 Co 11,6noo 109.7000 e Erllte Jn4 F4T4v 2o0.S000 370.1^1In 9e7.enDn Nn\_ !nVfa.0rtN. 16x,^ n ^ IIS.F 11n11 471.x0^- ^11 4111.60x0 lal•.t ^1111 271[.7^0f C1y90-1r,\1 24.7 11.•^^^ 6C. SAO- 112.1011^ IF'.1n\0 24'.6^nn " 1 1L Ln ♦ t er 11rt17VM S o ft) 211, A , An \^R, 7nnn lot. F11n^ 1144. 7o nn 197 S.^1111^ 31166,7111111 INT te A! T IV[ TeANSMISSI"N 1W10Ia V/e9SPAN%E NnN ^nv [0 Nor -IT - 111.10011 I47.ennn 516.90110 JPea.41111n GnvEeNME•:T 1)0).911110 6114.41111^ 14, 9D nn TL90nn Sb.An," ?for 111.4onn 74t.Aenn 474,1111"0 , IVAT r SMAA1N0 1].7110'1 1/,7111111 )9.1111 96.5000 174.1^11^ 1)5.5110^ (now forlAi. TI M E S141e14G v nN- QnVFe I M FNT ► 46.3All 62.71M 145.Gn00 ]11.300( -199,911 00 110.4, !111111 G^VF P•1 M ^NT S.20011 7.ono'1 16.211011 1a. ►,000 66.7011^ 127.4^'1^ T^T Al 1NT Pa ArTfVE t12.Sn11n 29S.An00 ?of.annn 1!.9.4000 39S4.nnnn 91n),n^11n FA I-tFT %WITCwIN' 7.6ÎV) I1.911n11 )6.711^0 110.SOnn )>t7,7^11^ 1079,1111110 IV Q1_=II _ I21 5 . 1551z 1011.5000 1364.nn10 1165.60 ê 1))9.;Ono 15147. 11111111 31877.6110^ EIFU S. y l^.l11 ► FpL1t Î1095 o r "A I:TFO ACCESS NrTVO48S A^ M INIS 76 A • IV 1 MESSAGF T6AVV •ION- G'1 V tA N r[ N / 97.101111 117.604110 291,Ion0 7 It. 4nnn 1IM,4^11n ^vFFVrr •17 2n. 4nnn ISSo.lenn 2t. Vin 57.50110 IIS. son 0 272.401111 19I.eln^ n^tsA • InN\L F ACSI M ILE 3.9000 6.1117^ 27.70n0 97.4000 7941.711011 9et.111n0 fn M "llvtr TING YnO11 ► PR OCESSnI 2,So" 4.V1nA I4.lon0 x7.901111 172.70111 )98.nnn^ Lrt •tvrN1Fa1!1 F4r%I%jLE , ^vt9Nr9NT NON- ' 20.91100 71.7000 SA.730r 99.9nnn 141.2x11.11 11 Gr1Vf a .4 4C -47 1F6.een ).7000 4. 9nnn IC.7non 17.5000 24.9000 2S. Inn^ 01 411, ^ SE e 1'ICFS 4 1 /.6^110 S.40nn l6.)oon 36.4000 05.Inln 199.4100 V) 'AL off y r , t •• IC ACCESS 142.1/1^11 197.56nn 4el.S000 1152.5000 24F4, 4n11^ 52S6.9n00 nT'r • . &Cr aft Nettsêr,t 4N^ Ttl-t b y I.6^ 1111 I,wn11n 2.711^^ 2,lnnn ,11"1111 NAILrs11" Aqn GOA N IfL F 0. 11^n 0l,7nnn 0.4%nnn 1.1000 1.41111^ 2,x111111 us e r r•sc 1 NnN-r^V[ x-41 147 S P 7, *Ann t109. we nn 17 M,ennn 1)^0,1111111 :^vFANM1N• SI.7nn n v6.Snnr 108.11110 Il4,n^^" TnTAI n F • 1 orCFSS ► I.nnoo 2.nnn0 641.9omo L2 In. 7nor 112 n,S11no 1430.6nOn IQIIL_ELELIS0Y1L RAIL 144.1000 1.4.1no0 I123.400n 2362. 7000 3904.9000 6697.5000 EE" _ JSS/!!°:1GlIlIlÎS IN3UI0 T/eE S P INtf 27.4non 41,1000 155.1011^ )95.100^ 991.4010 2446.9110') DATA EWTeTMATA TFAMSFFO 4nN_GnvFe10q49NT 14.1000 21.7n00 70.20n0 161.90no 1Se.40nn 791.S30C G11 v g e N . 1 N 7.500^ 1.11100 12.1000 21. vonn 61.4nnn 114. 4nnn IGIA L EtIS / 27S 44, " 030 69 , 7non 131.6100 So%.FOOD 1401.70011 1367. PICA 31SGELLL'JE^,:l1 AULICA7I OUS S P ECIAL OLM O DSF FACSI•ILE ww*- OnUt l y rFm y 114.IAno 18.Ioon S4. 40n0 87,1n00 137.Pont 114.6 ^nn 17 VEeNNF47 1 1I.40no 12. tnoo 16.?ion 11.9000 14,4000 32.0003 SECu r VOICE o 62.S030 164.0000 481!.71100 •41.410110 FIDNITCIFINC SFSVICES 0.1000 0.50no 2.9noc tnLL_SISLELLi 3 EC1V5 411.1000 So.600n 19S.I0no 273. soon 504.1000 ALL AF 1711.1000 IOI1L LL1GlI V7 5 1265 . loot) 76741 . 1000 466I.T000 10559 , 9000 21117 . 9000 421314.000 Sf*VTCt DEMAND ASSESSKr" i IWp6Ctod Baseline 1 Data Category - L+ov hangs ewneary

1 !Terabits per Year)

1 .7 1 1460 1165 14.0 loo, 700n

1.Ie...I _ SSSCISI1^yJLt11LlZ10y5 S IG" So t f^/Î!1 i 4A'c D DATA f"AISt Ie N)N • :^vf-9Nr a NT 151. 11100 206.40M !)2.10110 1)69.611110 )7••.1^1111 7e46.1^nn ; n vf 4yr^vT ()6.61100 76).)0110 )6),j10^ s6Tr. •^nCettt+G 715.1000 161•.6^0) 7615.)000 N^V-G^V t4 vrEV1 175.601) 2z 7 .)90) 657,1000 40n,10on (s95.O111 7604.91111) G^vi 9 e yrc14T 16.6^110 77.6109 4S.6nn0 14.1000 ISI.Snnn 7sS.sn)O 014TA "ve• IHI :N Sffrol N^ y r,nyreyrt NY 70.6^711 104.90110 250.T011n 613.I00n 14111.)0^^ 3116.1^nn ^Vte..0 G •4T 16.60'111 :2.)010 46.6000 10•.S000 119.99110 461.7,10 TTITAL -IC" S DF F'J/vl)F 9449 572.9000 146.1nn0 1615.1000 )111.00)0 0)96.61111 171!4.111100 Ln. S octn / r Enl l l y SotE) 1 A 'A c •ITev •s . 1 11 ^^ S7.1OÔ 106.69011 104.1000 A16.Sn'1n acr^ff In4 cyTe• 415,00110 t N 'V-'•^VfeN 0i v7 16A.11n1n 214.6nnn 411,611110 756.4000, 117s.6^110 zOS4.2)nn y vi .lT ^.lyfe is 70 010 11.7^)0 %5.40Ju 96.71100 Iss.711n) 710.5nno T')YAL LOS S e F e ,7 vc 11u• S o E°D 2%6.so^^ )'•2.9100 %75.6000 1)42.90011 171Y.7010 2T66.7^00 INT te AC T lv e To6YSrTSSIO4 Iw011ov/AESt^ySE VO'I - ; n vf^N O ENT 1)).5003 116.9000 499.6000 1201.60011 76.7.0900 S651.3On(7 G)v c'N 0F •Ir 16./'10) 70.7100 Ss. 1)00 10'..0nnn 22•.5000 )'+7.291111 001VATE T1 0f SNASING 12,7))0 17.1^)) 37.4000 81.8000 (64.%n)) )16.4100 CO r• F 4 CIAl TI OF SHARING NON- ;)vNwrf'vT 46.3,,111 62.300n 119.I0n0 219.8000 55e.0"M 1070.2 11^11 G "VF4v rc vT 5..'100 7.00400 15.6000 )2.)000 6j. 2000 114.81n0 7f'TAL IvTE e AC T IV C 212.5001 294.1900 747,1000 1716.3no0 3662.0101n 1503.10)1111 e4CtFT SwItCNI .r, 7.6))0 I1.4nnn 76.2101 110.son0 337.zn)n 1029.0non LaAL_3IILIQ ► y S_1SS1C!! 1011.51011 131) 1. 10 34. 6000 6681.6000 13e33.SnoO 7e4se.0000 EIE:Z::YI'^11L AO °' !C111 225 AES TO ICTFO ACCESS %FTrCARS 6n r l'+IS T4 4r(vf "o SSAGE TsAFt NrN-:nvfeN0FN7 e7. )O nn ll1. l^ 110 276,10110 6117. 6n11n 1)ss.0111n 7TSe.lonn ,'?Vi ce % .c-It 20.6600 TS. l^110 52.11100 I0s.0000 191.)11nn )•^.a ^0) 'e 9e 4TIONAL tA CSI"ILF 1.99)^ 6.19^) I1.3110 17.71')n 237.7^111 77T.7n6O r r^ ruNlrtT14r. 0 ,1en to nCFSSno 1.5)00 4.7 ^nn 17.3nnn S6. ?Ono 142.^n1n )2 e. 9)11n C M -4041 900f PACtl•ILF ey rc Nnv-r.)Vf y ► 2^.•nDo 2t.6nn0 56.6010 9).9090 1)1.7114111 17•.7^110 1^ 'VF evrF 141 ).1)00 6.40 019 In, 10 10) 16.60111 z1. Sinn 74.nnn11 rn "61L all S vICFS ).60)0 5.4000 Is.2n00 36.6000 76.20 ^n 160.190^ TnT•L ettT•IrTt) ACCESS !42.))90 19n.jn11n 452.00)0 1022.2000 2159.5n001 4514.7011n 1'41 ( 14 1C_fSS NFfmnao5 Tv• A'1) I FLF1 1.6110 1.041nn 1.1110 2.601111 I.41111n •.4)4141 0 1 T l -^ o„' 4 'iD TE LFG 4 60 G,- 71100 11. jnon 0. Sn)n I . l Ono 1 . 6)nn 2, onnn ,I • SOS cyst N r N-^VC A NMf NT 570.1))0 1054.90011 IISn.Tnn n 125s.5n)11 rnVt 69.6))0 99.10011 T 9l.)^00 101.•n nn ^TiL rtfy g c css I.t000 2.noln 622.7001 IISO.0000 175S.611^ 1371.7000 IIIIÊLELI_1YILJIL 144.1^no 142.2noo 074.7000 2172 .20cn 1415.1n ) o l091.4n011 EELS- !C%/l!°_L1Lkf 10!15 1 •, 0 , 111V Att t 7NS, 2T.6n0) 41,5n11n 149.0000 )78.1000 9.0.0010 7)6n.son" DA T A F% Ts v/')ATA TeANSFFv "ON -1 1, 044 .IfNT 14.1))0 11.S)n0 65.8100 1.6.900" . 312.fInn 706.51110 G 11 vF44"f4? ?.$Ono I.en)) 11.7000 25.5000 ss.7011n 122.20ne ICI&L LEIS 1 125 64.0noo 6e.e000 226.)00o sso.6000 III8 . lOno 3169.5000 J1SLELL.19L0JS_1[[11 CAT I pyS c eFCIAL el7otptf P AC t101LI NnN-,nvF4N•F4T 14.1000 1A.1Onn %2.3000 77.1000 119.501111 202.5n011 r.nvfs4 1" 41 11 .4000 12. 7non 17.3000 19. 1000 2%. snn11 j 7, sô) .PC I P F VOICE 60.4000 149.2000 )71.00)0 046.6n00 0041 1 notNG SFvvtCfS O.IOOn 0.5nno 7.0^^n ILYA L-11 5 ;1 L LA I E =S 411.5n ) 0 S1 .60on 1)0.0000 245.60nn 529.Sn nn 1001.5^00 l 1.1AL - LLL.J!_1 lu tIONS 1267.101111 166s . S1100 4.65.4000 4 6.4.9000 197e7 . 9oon 3 1600.4-100

1 ,

i i[RyICr Dr"ANt, A5Srsl1Q:'

Impacted baseline

Date [;ataqory - bi g?, Range btsw%arl il4•raDlts per Vow

I Joe, Joe- too- _. ZAIA.:tA%l"I All DYJ"_l.1L^IIDYS w1G^ S 0 1 9 0 I rIN aa r^ t1ATA taSV,•ta •IoM-G,y••rr(V1 .Inn^ T^•..'1„ ,e).•,nN fir.. 1,. ••.0,n, IR:I.anO^ N I•. \^n n i••.I,r^ •1 . •H tl6l(w Po n r..IV'. OC •!•.I^n^ 19)9.An^rl ^..

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r n t 1198VICt OCKAND AssrssIgNr

Balance After Benovel of Intr&bmsA T[AffjC 1 Date Category - Expected Geee summary

T (Terabite per Yeerl

19'4 1911 Iom^ loon 1114 +n nn

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9alenCe After Rae.t+vel of IntresmsA Traffrc Date Categer) • la Range 9tea,er5. (Tarenit• Per Year)

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ORIGINAL PAGE IS Of MOOR QUALln I 14

Irll t'TCr DrP"D Ae)rSlfrrT

1 61 1en ce After ReaVvel of lntraelteA Traffic

Date Category - High ►tang• 11s.ary ( Te raDlto per Year)

le1`4 l^911 1444 104M 1944 11100

2 ALA_ IsIt Is! IsIL: urLl y117b$ NIGH 11 66 [0/1410[ 6640 1ATA 1e64trEe 4n 40- p.^V1.49I YT 1 144.oM ^n I1vfeV»EVT 501•$000 1.1+4,100^ 141).• ^1M 1611.41^0 121.1611 1/0.1130 )14,110, 100.21000 1165,40011 121 6. 210%0 la r C» ► anCESSIvG y 414 .f ^ eaV •e YT 14 M . 161^ C^966414 14 91 111.11^^ 116..1^^ 1)5.1/10 1511.60^^ 256^.8110 11. 10^0 1 7. 901M )6, 2100 11, 1001 6a/4 F y Ta• IMIC w t0rfll 1 )9.11110 2Is. 1001 4 MV_ ;^V e 11-4 014! V T 40. 000 14, ► 000 1 41 .6^M^ 5)). 611110 1151. \11116 1117.0^66 ;,y9.r14e V. „Qn0 ^6 )1.2010 47,1000 110.6000 •21.1^10 ^Tel 41 1.m telalirl 4140 41?.2M11 15)9,)1111 )e• t ^r sefflitenly+ Seer1 ► .M00e 461.5110 It••4.T^^0 1 ? â T 41 16• 14.nn1n •1,.,11 11.11^0 a f. ^1è I ^, 1414.6• 116. 61100 211,•111 445. 411011 'eM•'-;^ v 4 " 14 .9 41 114,4000 IT\,\100 )41.SMO T70.4nn6 1724.On ^n A ^n ! - yre4rr •11` •0.2100 I•??.? 25,2111 55.11nM 105. IMM1 117.Inlot 76 A.•'MA 1^14.1 I M14 1. 1 991114rMI ' I* Se991 114,60%^^ 744,910 S00.9M ^M 11101.1111-0 IS40.1111 264A, 1nn^ T1q/14.r•Ive I ^,•114111111 ^V 14Ût9,19-t*^•Ief v^Y--lvrav14C4T ;I.!1nn 112,5,01 1.11.2^00 1026.1n10 ?24e.enn0 40?1.20eM ."vrer4r•IT 10.4110 I4.?Mnp 6).1010 44?, Irmo 196.214114 1%%.)nnM e elvat r 11 4 f %man r. 9,11.,1111 1\.01^6 )0.•000 ?I.6Mp 1...5610 2/6.1^116 COrwr e • 14L 71 4f SHAe14G « r4_; nye 4 41 11.4911 ?4.21^0 61.9100 1)6.4000 ^^ 445, 1140 ;^vf e r49v T , x6).60 .t^91 2.6101 6.410^ 15.2000 2•,40^0 -4 M1^ T^TAL I 'ITO41CT1VI 116.M^^M 164.7100 !)?.6300 1)16.6000 2/47.6011 5914.1010 6 &C a9 ^ t.IT- H Ivr 1.+111 11011^ )..14'0^ 105.1000 I.- IM11 9?T.6^ M I:.^L_.SI! _ IS 1§=lSilt 111 ?,1111 1661.11^1 ► y y 7612.161111 6)A 1.6000 11167.%Mn M 2 761•,401^ E.FGI!:Y1G_1S1L_i !11G^113^15 cfS I:TOn tC 49rr0a4S TO AN 614 + 141STo,T I VF 4ESS4GI To or rw - ^nv ^4 4T e •r a1 .1^^n 11.111111 221.4nMn 5T4. 200n ,IVreg4t '+' 1141.4^^^ 2S72.1100 16. 1^^M ?^.51M^ •6. 1 1 1n 102.1!110 1,S4^ 1 1 1 7\4,•1^1 10901T11r,L 6SfS1 0 1LF ^n I. Tn 4.x000 22.100 91..IOn 2 74 1111 04S. 601^0 r'1. Û4r r 6 T IV1 "(1 90) ee ocESToe 2.11100 ,0 ;nn 14.110 11 :16,1000 1 , 1 •(96.4 C^ vve YtE4CE e6CSl•llf 14 610 ^M %0Y-;^VF 9 4 • E4T 1•.•090 26.s1Mp 4e_:00o 109.)000 ISS.10`10 204.00410 .10 0 % ,d e v f 1.S1Mn 4,111^0 10.SM^ 14.70110 7T.71MM 24.21011 • &ItAM S VQ VICFS ).6010 5.IonM 16.10011 6C. 4010 90,19 ^1 200.1§000 T ^TAL 66 tTeICTSO AeCFSS 101.2000 064I.S000 395.0000 1001-0000 2174.1610 4641.511111 C ee•• Act FSS toTr0eeS IMF A 1 .M T6 LF e 1.511!7 1,10^0 7,loô ).0000 - I L'. 6A4 540 Tf LFCeA n I.I010 4.10010 A 0.SnoO 0.21nn 3.40911 1. 00M M 1.101^ 7,00%1M 1 1 1 14 ? r.%S al rrl-,.rve•4 n C4T 677, 60011 l2o,vnnnr 11117.16^11 1640,111116 C1vFe•i »6914 a 1.0111 1017. 6o^n 11^.7moo 110.1MM6 T^T61 nOC 4 acc e ss I.i^n1 1.91^11 679.41100 1711.5000 Isn7,4n6e 1616.)^MM 104.9110 IL AL-LLELIMU L-lll 1A1.4Mnn Io15..000 1349.Soo(l 1666.5 ^ 1o) 6160.ammm E°_I5_-MS/Ai _L6 ILALICYS IYOJI4T141t ,r1Y4F 4.2^00 11.2100 S1.1000 1)9.9000 1.•,6010 116•. M nn DATA F%If• 1 1ATa T•ANSFFa Mn4 - ^ ny f • %0F4T 10.6^ M I6..,MM 51.1100 1)4,111111 7^7, 7`01111 676,6110 G1vF 9 4 w vT 1.4^00 2,9100 10.1000 74.5000 7M.7010 !•.2006 116.7000 TOTAL_EEI5 1 !0S 12.sonn 114.30on )0).S000 111.5000 1661.1060 CULELLUEOUS_ LI P ICA71 0ISS SPEC IAL 6 J•rnSF FACS141LF MOM 1 0vf44 e1E4T 12.4000 16.7100 75.1000 96.0000 Govfe..E4T 151.2000 277.7000 10.6000 12.1000 IT.SoOo 21.70011 7•,pnno 71.1`000 SVCU•F vnICF 51.9000 ?51.5000 )06.)010 •O41r 1 eIVC SF•VICFS 906.1000 0.1000 0.1000 1.5000 lA4 ^ rt 43.21 00 IIZFLr1SLEL 4 4e,3n0n 1)0.)000 775.1000 5111.1010 119,.1000 L7TA LALLJ! FI_i rA Tl04 t v6S.10n0 1526.0000 3916.2000 9109.9000 111)42.)000 76749.4000

i f 1190VICT yr " A.+C A!E^ ! lpaw!

94:anCe After Removal of lnterfttSA Traffic of loss that AC ru.ea Do s s ;•teyorl - lRyecteE Came su"kar)

l:lraDlts per Year)

1•.. 1.44, tons 1^•r 1••• ^,•

D^:l_IllyS : 13IIZI_ ^•_1ILC.ICy3 OtIC y i r fE'+r"Ins 0164' Â? ♦ Te AVtrrs ^^v-'nV"v+1 YT 1)7.9" „ 1 •,• „- ► •1..• ^-^ o1c.•onc f7f &.N(•14n t+1•:.r ^. ^v! e v .r r • Ilr.ln^ I.n,•,•, etrCr ee^-"Sits: !1•.1,,, 7••.7141414 1.5•.214^^ 7N 1.1^^^ 4 ^V^G n Y' l rV+f M t Ilo•.1^,' 021.1-,. )09.10140 7•".1141414 1• M .1^^ !)1S.•^^' vr.y14r.,T I).^,,, .^,,^ )..•000 27.7000 119.•14^ J11.o ^n" 11a T & IvTev I w IG M tr[f,l s. 11i.100C c^vf r v rry ? ,^ 406. CON) 1195.•^^Y 7.11.7,"•" 11.InM FS,S „- ^ c 1•.•000 T "'T1^ rlr,. r a n ))•^ 11R,9^^0 )5$.1140" S r ff? otÎ AV •TC.114^0 •1.,.•14, ^ ta)S./n C !••..9000 r ♦♦.. el^ê ^.,. t..ln/+t^1v• Srrrn 19o ► o.9n^• ,.•. t ► •• )]?.1140, •:.Innn 90.71114" 1.•,90014 soon?$ Jn• ?"Tow 7.0.141400 TT1. +ôn N ^v-'nv0av+rYT I11.1' ,'f 1^•.•,nn 11..610nQ •.s. 9nn0 G'vf r •• YT ► 1101, An^0 11/1,•^0A A r 1•.10^1 1..•tn0 •1.1,00 11.S0n0 1.1.71414^ 11$,•,14^ ? t 1t 1,1. S p r r live .)I km S o fr0 141.0,140 Js1.•^140 •t l.0IMA 00). onnn I.0\,r^114 7.44.1. ^^^ IN- -Inv it- t•^\to 14"v . -.lv s uv •• 4 • el.l^^' I$s.tnn^ Y•n,1n,^ 09•.114^- 1^•.,•^^^ •It.,)n,^ G^v'149'Y t In.l' „ 1•.!114, tv.•nnn v7..nn0 I0^4. InIA 7v'.nn Y Pal s• &t$ v i ol 00. • 14 • •.)14 11 11.wnnn J9.o000 61. soon 1)1,114,A 7.,.•,14 Cnr •$r1( $At 11 44 0 SwAe1NC ► ^nN.r.^Vrryr$Vt If.l(•^n 7..•141414 S6.9M0 111.1nnA 1.a,n+11 .tl.tAMA G^vf o %" , :.0,11 1.t1n• •.,0^r I). SO" 16.14^,^ •?,eon^ T^[ A; IvT r aACTivf I 1^.9^0^ Ip7.)^0^ •91.ann0 11•S.onnO ISI:.r•^^n •IO•.s14nn r Ars r T Srlt( w 1Y; /noon, 11.0^^^ )).S,nn 10:.•0014 11'.•01, •-•.Aoon ILI1: _CDIÎl1 y S113S1 Jl ?•1.9nnol 10 4 5.)In- 24 : 2.4nnc fi•5.7no0 ► le •+.• ono 1•^ • .loon ElEL1E:]1^ U L A•D IrA11Dy3 I t S T RIC T fn A:C$SS Nr Ttr nr ♦ S 4n+ Ia15T S ATIV[ ofSSSGf Tea" 01^V - "V 69 4+f NI ♦9, 1. Mn Fon,\nnn J07.10^n .!\.anon I-..,+^,^ 7121.1^^^ G'V$rVrryt 11.•,914 19,7^n^ )•.)0140 AI.•000 ISI.r^nn 76?,•p0^ no r •aT1 ;6, I t f 0 A SIo 1.•001 5,1,^- J1.o0nr 15.^rno J6T,,010 921.Inf+Fn c A TIN;. vnr^ MncESS 1t 2.714 n, ). 11 1 - 16.[91r St, 6 n^n III.1o914 1.v. M14n r0-1 V[YIEV' r r AC SI o f II NCao- G ^V r o Oror V • lie•^" 7S,1nn^ r 54b.40140 •2.!000 00.20140 17:.•nn^ Gnyr••o y yt ).• „- ..SO0^ 9.•000 16.7cAn 71,140 „ T).•^140 44 A • I ^ Sf VICft s s @ 1.)Dn^ S.e060 IS.IOnc 35. soon 79.914^, T^ T &t n F tT0 1C Tr ^ ACrfSS Ina.•^r la 1.JMnn 351.9014" 49C.SOn0 tOfI.I^114 30?9.ln^f nr f% ArrrtS off i v Da n t 1 A4 n Tftfr I,S,nn 09 1.114014 2.14,140 ?,001414 ),714,14 •,yn141) (AA tt gels &YD Tflr r A+ O.JOnn O. 7141414 0. 0nc 1.00140 l.rc1^ „ 141414 Ut^t r.tt ► Nth!.nyf•N+rVT 57).)01414 1011". 4000 11?i,•n," 11,•,•,,^ 01011 -4 411 F NO ••.•non •..tens I'M At n o r 4 In1.Tnn, 111.1^^" ACCf t t 1.7,0.^ 1.0„ •)S.sOnn 1100.nO ^14 t!'t.Sno" I394..•n," I^.IEI_CICCIS7 L . li1L Ic• no^ 1.\,Inns y • ea.lonr 7oao . SOne ) 1 N .9014 14 ) ) ?.,?1414^ tC13.113'3! L:M ! Inv? IYG,I a• /of s on--W a.onni IT.9nOn •5.6000 IIS.6000 7.2.7010 71S.•nn9 OAT& [N T a v /DATA TaANSrta NON-: ^vfav + EYT 10.)i0n IS.900n 51 .1eno 119.10,1^ GOVfa4 44 rY 1•;.T^'+" tTI.AIM, T 1.1,914 2. a I, n^ 1 •nn^ 2c 4071 - •a.• „ ^ •[ .)non 111A_.L115 r i:3 20.100^ ) ► .5000 105.90140 7••.3010 991.000" Iles.Iln0? 441 t • r I L JNL.LJ3_JLL If Al 1 2y1 S O ( CIAt r U ar 9Sf FACS1+IlI ft"_r,:tvra4444f00T 11. )n00 So. 400c, 9Cr•Onn "On11 . JIt.1,14^ onV $ av44F-07 ► Ic.90nn 11.900" 16.•Onr 19.1000 )1.900n 19,61414n SECVaf VVIct )4.9000 1.).•00" 361.InOn 129.9MOO 44DNIT04IN(1 StrvlCrt 0.709n 1. 600f, 7 1LL_S1 S L,LLLAN=f .).7141414 47.100" IJ7.inon 7•S. IV, III - InnC l0?•.•Onc, Into AL, A 1 pLILAIION1 061.000C 1269 . )6)4. 0000 7000 / 195.9000 16+71.4000 ) 14bIS.70On 1

srwylR DMA1r: ASMSFQTrT 1 Aelenc• After Fu wove: of InterfMlA Traffic of Leas th0r IC NLle6 1 Date Catogery - Lo4. Mange 1.pa1••ary

(Terabit• per vowr

19 7 1 11x0 1... I%am look an nn

7^.I^_IS^d3S1S11^1s.,JiLLi.1LIllClli MIGM % p 1 9 n nr10F 1avD DATA Teary%oft 4^r-GOv6er4FVt 1.7. M n ^ 111..1ne 461.6000 17ol.9000 Poe I.7600 6170.100^ G1 Wil l V.4F VT 111.1^m 141.1nn0 101.2000 6441.9000 1266.0000 2297.A600 14 11 % vo ' fs%IrG .49 M^4-G^Vt • 4 rt I3T. 11"" 177.)0010 )416.6000 1,02.7eoo 1?44.40too ?IMI.V%oft f^v 99 r9tVt 11.06"n 11.6010^ )41.aemm Ao.966r 127.981^ W. 1 16" 11614 arts• I..ir• M %09101 1109-! m v r ar-Fri S/.1^mm 70•.7nen 111.40^0 44 It. Amon I^'1.16"^ 74166.6 ^101 r.^vf•4 4 rW 17.1000 16.1000 1..Inme 16.40^0 160. Senn ))1.1100 MI T^Tat !w % p iFm2Y 9m 1 0640 47^.Inn,) 61 0.0 13M, 1)16.)000 )1.4.)nne At•6.emn0 142701.16014 L - 11 % •ro ot-tmtLp- t•FF^ mAT4 F"Wev 11,1^ „ 4%.9^60 77,pmn0 111.5000 274..?^"n 1.6.0000 eo4RTv 1014 tvvev V^b-^^v r eV 49 vr I)1.Imme 10, a.nmme W .1nno 1vo.%000 914.7mmm 16142.Gnno . vT r,1v 9 e/14 19, 70111 2 3.6"601 4 ). 70010 71. Omen 171.41nnn 111 % . %A mn m T^141 I m r S •r '1t .4fnlo- % p ro 140,4^" 1 71%.46mm 443 POIAn On%.460101 114mm.n00 711 . 1nnn 14Tra4rr1v 9 Ta4•tr14t11r tr:•110vt•'S•l4tr 60 ^v - : m v e a4r r vT 1.1.Ineo I2 T. anon 141.1(Ino 117%. 4010 1607.lkee0 talk 7. 4010n G^VF•VVf 0 1m.Imem 14.Imn0 37.1Onm N.Soon 156.7000 ? 67. 7nnn T 9 • •IVA F T1 41 1 % M 4 I4' 4.19m0 I?.Some 27.6000 59. soon 120.3000 711. SAM co- o f f, IAt 11 .49 %MaeI40 rr'w-- n vf4r 4 FV1 I4.IInn 74.1nOm S4.lono 11).0000 ?17.7mmo 6111 mne . GIVf944F4 2.m10m 7,71nn 6.0000 12.6000 ?4. 1010 44.1900 T T1r.L I470aaCTIvf 130.6enm 16 1. 7 131M 4b6.e000 1011.)m0o 2176.so90 41^1.lnon p AC • F T S11IT'M14; 7. me 09 It.m"!7m )).Sono 102.4000 112.4^1.4 013.3nm0 VIAL-O ► I LILS y 52151in 741.6060) 1016.1moo 7)22.4000 9132.4000 10676.6000 72172.5000 ELL: IS0 ,JI -]AIL_ L Iu lIMIS a I S 7 aI'/ F 9 4" 9 SS 4r7rnacS A^-141S To At I V F "IV %Sa l . TO AFF 4^4- :1V! Q.4 4 FVr 49.1101"n 701,1')0^ 190.)000 4)41.)6^0 9241.^')^^ 1112.pm'-o G IVFa 449 vT 11.g1-31 17. 2 m n 1% 16.Ommn 71. 700 A 2)2.6^^^ npr 112.069!7 QAv1mraL Fa(ST N ILF 3.60m0 5.7000 14.7300 72.0000 :.1 0. 674,7011^ ♦ ^- • u4ICAil y ' r0•n p•mcIssna 2.2^On 1.7nnm Is.2mme 49.10m0 124.em1n 28t.*men c0 .1vo 41I 9 4't 9A(SIMILF vnr_!^VF9V4FV7 10.41mn 75.4609 !2.46016 417.010^n 1270^mn0 (6%.40106 r. ! , Vf a4- r W 1.40mm 4.91e^1 9.4006 1%.6000 71.a'tim 2702^^^

VA IL 411 S o• vICFS 1.11"1 5.0010 14.1000 ).•I^00 7n.tnln t45.Tm00 7^Tet • F%V N ICTF" •00%4141 Ms. 41 1,10 161.41100 337.ION% ItI.SnoC IAl6.?^101 1415.1000 M e t% AC , 9 %% f0rrnles 1 n Ta w a • 79 L Fr 1.1n1n I. Teen I.•ooe 7.4000 3.1010 4.1oee e n -a IL G O A- 641 TItl P. a 0. 7mnm 0.21100 0. Some t. 00 on I.TO11n ?. T600 Ilt a % f -tS wnr-;^vo9r4f47 SS6.6000 1071.7000 1122.?0160 1124.40#10 C"vFa4-947 41.2onn 44.0000 97.2^00 lob. Inee Tnt aL p rr n a C C F % s 1. 70 nn l.9nnn e0T.200n 1.I21.I0n0 122•.7n10 II11.)m00 _us_^s/iu.^utr4^I0LL F LELIMUL-uIL 107.Inne 141.2nmo 944.3000 1164.6000 7F40.4m00 4T93.1no" 140u1 aT t .9 s • 04sF 6.00601 12.Tnoo .3.6000 110.6001) 7741.7000 664.1000 DATA Fv 7 •v/DATA TaArSFFa T Asr V -Govea Olaf 41 10.3000 141. TOM 40.Imeo 107.400^ ?75.1660 516.10nn 130vf•4VFVT 1.1noo ?.enno 6.4000 le.1000 40.To10 19.6000 1II1L_Ef1S/!3S 7m. Win 31.1000 100.1000 2)6.7000 951.60001 1790.90100 3LSLLLiSUJS _ Sr'L I C 1 ' IRIS S 9 F-IAL •uar^St FACSINII! w r79. -COVE• w14r 11.60m6 )41.1000 46.S000 TI..Omo I1o.7mon I1 T.60nm revfarrrrr 10.6nno 11.1non 16.0000 17,70no 77.1m1n 7s.snnn SF(LA1t voice 53.0000 191.0000 125.600n 744.10100 # wn sIT0 M T%G SF 9 vICts 0.7000 1.4nee III1AL-31"LL.N L= 42.?nne 47.1eno 117.5000 770.10en 461.1^ne 951.1000 iCLL_LLL JLLL1G A fln01s 961.00on 12S7.90on ) 4 14.)000 7 4 73.1000 14112.40no r91 ? s.l000

F• ecn•tct Ott m., Assrso r:- balance A fte r Remove) of lntureiten Traffic of 1406 tner 6C Males

Dots Ceteeor7 - n len e16ny. Swm&ry

(TrreD1t4 per Veer)

le 610 1.4^ I•e1 1••11 )0014 7qn-

wIG« Srli,i,^,r •6v^ Het• 1616.161140 #4^%-Gnvre Vrr N/ 11:.6^ „ IT4,4nn^ ••.,111^0 G ^%00%6161 •,• 1674.1000 14+71,7,0, 061•.4,••+ 11'.1^nn 166.en^^ )6e.409D 060.1000 1702.40 110 1136..^^^ •611 ► „ e6nrlttI%G M^N • ;1Y r 0 NVi y' 114A. •,,, 117.140nD ) 116.•0^n .11.1 ^^n 16 Tt. 1nnn 160 1P.6nnr G 1%04#461 61 ••r 1t,n , , , IA.en^, )11.11^110 75.00011 116.1 „ ^ 274.1^^^ n6 T 6 0% 114. 161146161 Seltnl 0dr%-CAVf9 4rr%T X7, 1+^^ tA,/,^^ 1.1.1^+^ )70.5000 1711.'^^^ 141(1.# ^n^ r ^Veevers. 17.1 ,,, I T.^^n^ ?1.1000 •I.M^n Isq 60 .%n 41C./^n, 1^61,1 611G « o • S ffolviol 46#40 ► 11.10110 6)).7^nn 15(11.00^0 )e0^.f000 62011.01)0 11% p .•ne^ tnr 1t6sln141 e ÎVr Serin fit V4 wTe. 1 )•1 nn^ •1.)^^^ e5.ô110 170.)000 7 on. 60nn err + 11! ,Jn4 !%11ev 414,11nn^ • II M r M^% ^^Y I 4' I'll, 4 l.7nn n 101.ON^,. I101.Annn I0!P.ln0+ ^#4610#4.61.. In,1nr 261 ,,^. 51.9n,n ,, 4 0 n T,•, l l^. l^11 ,6161(Î;1. telt- 1@1,•0, • + 61 7.0: 4s6.S000 iie.t000 1666.7010 t6?1.6 ^Po n IN1te6C v W 1e641SrItS10% 101^ -111 4 V to f %er% S I ti rr l -G"'O A1 44 0 %I 01.100 1. 1J9.7nn^ 315.6noo 1000.600^ 6TnI,Tnn•+ G, V T O %r 2701.11111nI %rr 10. 1o^'+ 16. t^^- ... , ^n I 0r1V6Tt Tirt Sr401Mi ► 67.000" 1141 . I , % 117, ^^n^ 9.100^ 12.1?^' )".In^n 69./000 140.4ô0 111.6000 C I -l I C16l 11 41! Sw ► el#4G 1004-1IVlo r1011%T If.Inn , :..5,101. 19.40nA 133.00 ^n 6157,)0)0 6,1.10AA c^V e •V r f NT 2.nn^^ 7, 10 nn 6.6no0 I4.eoor, 20,)000 511.0000 TM6l 1-01 sac, IV! 1 110.600^ Ir1.Vlon 126.7000 17n5.7Jon fe70.4111n Se16.6noc o6C4fT SrIT;«Iti'. 7,11nn, I1.n^^^ )).S00^ 102.4009 )12.4101 953.11n'fo A^nn InI:_W a_IEA yS31117:y To t. 1066.4,n, 7S67.+000 616•. oonn 1110)1.7000 t6966. s ^^0 ELl:IS:`^1^7 ► I ^ 6r^_ Ic6T 10YS aIS,01CIfr, a t wrT1P1 4tS 6D-I%IS t6 6 T IV e MTSS6G! T06if 611 n% - r , V O'IVc%T 59.0^ , - •n.@111^ 21,,0„ 016 C. On^ - 1217.40 ^1 r, I V O%rr YT 7+ê.) ^^^ 111.•00^ 7n.n^ nn 45.7 ,^, •c,Tdnc IFS.9^911 57 T. + ^n^ nrt46TT^V4l i4CSlrilf ).6^^- S.7nnn 21.09^' 41.110" 164.4090 67).!^00 LJ rr 0 141COIN, 11(1110 ^ AOCISS',0 2.2^10 1.000( 17.AIOC 67.0n10 170.•0^^ )•6,611^0 r0 11v nile%rr 16CSIMIlt M^^ - '^VTOVrt N11 14.4'1n^ 2S.e11n^ 57.7onn lot.6000 IsI.14c^^ 144,•,0, G, V re N rr vt ♦, ).601!1 A^^^ 10.)000 19,2^nc 77.1^^^ 107.S'f ^n •611401 196VIClt ).) n o? S,nnn^ IS.70n^ )c, 6090 117.@^D9 195.5^^^ TnT6 1t1 0 e 1 9 1CT n 6CCFSS 105.41^r I4+.1mn- 1166.lono 993.o00n 2175.1no. .510.11êr n ot •. 6Critt wrvwAv-t

76 9 4 01 1) Ttil1 1.50nD 1,70,11n 2.70nn 1.0000 1I.7^,11 4.6 ôn 6'Ire6 . r 4V^ TrtTG06r 0.7^n^ 0.2000 0.Sn11n I.n00D I.Tnn'! 7.tnnn use r. e4tt #4^r.-C0vr0g4s%11 607,60^^ 17)6. 5nnf 114 ? A1 An 14 1611,0^061 G,vfOVr•^r S2.6n0n 106.40^^ II6.T0'1^ I)S.o^^^ 7n nn T^11,1 O or , 6""61141 1.•000 662.7ono 1)47.4000 t470.ennn ISIS.•nnn I II1:^1L^LSCYl:.â11 107.Ioo n 147.6ôc 1061.Ionn 731C.605A 15.1,10110 6116.1 ^n^ :t1S_!=Spa^^:I:lS1:Y: I%: 10'Ier to^1 114 e. ^^^- 12.•nn, 49.60,10 1)..S000 160.911011 [email protected] DATA !% Ie 1/DO T 4 1.6NSTIe 1W•Yr-r11VvRv9NT 100^ 101.0'10^ 55.7000 35. (, Of, •00.00'10 657,•000 GOO SVV t All 1.@00'1 2.4no^ 1.0190 73. IA110 Sl.a^no 1111.7^^^ IZ A`FL: S t 1': S 20.100n 31.0000 115.300C 796.own 617.1000 1671.4^D^ IC671 51S[ELLJ.1i:A.ii_ APot 011S 1 S S o lC16l R lleo nS i i6CS141t! t00M-GOV ► 4#4•E NT )1.600^ )5.)000 53.9000 93.6000 167. inn^ 25().00^^ CnYlSr•f r' 10,600^ 11.0100 17.000^ 1I.IOno 1111 In n, so,•on- SK UOt YnIC! S6.1000 111.6000 1664000 @06.700,^ 11047T0e1N6 SlOVICtt 0.2000 1.4noc 10TAt e1tC!tL6llrD,,t 42.7000 47.100^ 177.onnn 269.1000 $67.1000 1167.1000 II6t ALL ♦ l r« IC/1 10'75 461.00on I?q?.•nno 16116.11000 9070.7000 171671P 1000 55867.9000 1 srpyiR yr p"D A66rsonmr:

balance After Reviov61 of InterenzA "" •'• Traffic of 1..•66 1 then 40 stiles Data Category - Expected C666 6unetary

(half voice circuits n 1000)

167A IAA, too! 1900 lees 7101

2AII_I!INI!115101 J !W LA11Q3S MIG- S P f 91) r •I1E 11641 .A t e T66NS.16 11 .1 4- el l VF P 4+f A1 T 4. $0041 e.11^^ 16,.7 ^n 4a, 9000 In4.6 ^n^ 761.7104^ VtINrr Vf (. 1 6•rN On S.11M 11.1000 25.1110 N ,SDI^ $^.71n0 ft ad O6 "CF SS14G 61nN-c ^v Pe v + r 4r 4.7nn1 1%. 1`1144111 11.6011 7^. Senn 4.7.4000 U. I III" 1; 1 V r• v +r 4T n,41n9 0.60nn 4.2000 Z. some 6.4071 1.4^oo C41A rNTe. I 641C M SOffnI 4 T M^a-- I VF P 4 •F $.11111 1 2. 6100 10.I"Ine Pei. some 166.\^104 611.1111 Virg 4+ G! r v 1 2.0010 2.010o S. A lt no 11.$0•±0 11,e17o $7.4001 7^161 ..I;« S rr 1 1 26.on11 /01 1 13f II6ND 17.71040 17..000 1$2.!09^ 417.7 ^1^ ^1a.11^^ i ns S 6 F F ^/ + ► DIV+ SP/^'► ", 4 94 VATPT 5.4000 6.'000 11.00110 2+.7000 16.A1OO eo.noeo 61wf%TF in , r4TPr rlrr-' n v! P 1Mr4 • 21.,•100 17.111^ 54.onnn 104. some 170.2MAO 21 v.0O04n 11 4 1 VI 6.1M 41 ),7011 4.1111 7. 60,70 Ia.10mc 21.!1010 \S.4^104 tPrrn/•rntt,r TFTA1 l n w S I M, 2b ann n 16,0111 14,600^ 112.6010 740.00nn 162.6^nn 14t F F6C T t y ! t o in-, INC, IaV/PrSP:^4SI 4n0A-G^V 66 4 M I4T 14,1000 70.7^10 So. lone 141. Gone IIs."In t/4.1On^ G n Vto%"r AT 1.6nno 2.110^ 6.6000 11. SOnn 2?.seen 46.6nno TIMr ^ P 1VA T9 t- 46I4G l.$D1n 2.0111 4.6000 10.2010 In. 6049n 16.6nn0 (nwMFe • lei TI -t Swat IAir, Nf'% -G^VF6NrF N7 .0m n o) 4. AI nn •.7000 17.6000 11.6090 6-$. A10n G7V r. N rr V1 P.1000 0.4010 I.Olen 2.2000 4.7oOO ?.?Moo T r ial 14 Tr. 1CTIV r 21•^nn, 74.4111 77.10010 16!.11006 405.11111 \7,61nn Per.rt S.I I '+1V, 1.1111 I,A1^7 5.49041 :6.Sno0 S0•S n1 n ISo.nn013 ICI6:_1021_I! ►YS'1SS109 76.6000 In1.n100 2)6.10004 1)•.9nno 1171.$110 2304.1onn EL! L1!1+ 1L_lS11^^PL1LJlIlOyS ofS 'Is ICTFn at! rtS .197wOr.S &n a tNItt•\ T IV r +rtSACf Tsar o%1Vr64MI NT Nn%- 6.61 n1 I'I.Ann04 32,6nn0 1$.n00r I70.601n 1$0.6^00 G n VF64+F •IT ),)Orin 7.101nn 6.1000 1).:onn III .4nOn 41.7100 O Pr6 ATI r•; 0 L FACSI a IL1 0.70013 0.1nOn 1.1101 6.4000 11.6191 41.61^^ 'c1-a "dICA?IN. w 1 P 1 66 oCfSsna 0.6001 n.6nn0 1.7000 $.6010 26.4000 56.4^no C('`VVFNIF4!f FACSINILF 1 .T% - "MV r 64+F/,1 IS.6noo 70.711nn 43.$0n0 74.1010 105.6190 1141. I:1^n GIVI D N r f NT 2. Mon 3,1n00 1.6090 13.100n 16.6111 16,610^ M 61LP 1 F SF 6 VTCFS 0.5000 C.ennn 2.40no s.7ono 12.70 104 26.70011 Tf.141 69 S T9 1CT1 n 6ff r SS 11.1110 47. Win 96.6000 199.70or 170.1090 676.0001 o pt -, W 9 5% NFTwn6rS Twr 44n Tr1Fr 0.7710 0.%nno 0.10nn O.annn n.Nn1n n.f0404n n "AllFQ A 441 7F L FrP6+ 0.104 ^n 0.)nnn ^,\^nn M. A,"". us ,• % FM('. NfIN-r •A VF@N+f NT Iq. ^11M \b. nnnn 0. 1^nn 41. annn :-Vv6NW r 4T 1. 1^^^ \, `n-rn 1, • .^104 ., n^^n T n TAI ner. AffrA% A. I, n, \n^^ 71.1.1nA 4n.rnnn 44•.1,11 4.,\^ ^^ I0I9: _ Lt.LLIE091L _^lll \ 1 .5111 4 7, 11111 I I n.4 • lnn Tan. .041... 4 I 4 , 104,1 T+., I ^^1 LC1S_=1Sf^^__n11Ll11:Y5 IM0VIav fo r % O nNSE I.lnno 7.Innn 7.3000 1". ?moo 4A.Sn1n ► 15.6^04^ 06 . 6 F% Vg v/')6T6 T6ANSFfe NON-G04 Vf 6 4 .11147 0. 4. n.460nn 1.1nOn 4. noon 10.4^nn G I)VFP4 M 141 0.1000 M.Inne 0.11nn o,rnnn I.AnOm \.\nnn IUAL-Ef1-S I NS 1.6000 2.7000 $.1010 21.4000 $6.$0110 1It6.)^01 51S LL l l0 LD J S_.lLL1JU I1011S S P ECIAL PU6 P nSI FACt1MILF M Fl OM - rnvf 6 M EMY 5.1000 S.Tnoo 4.1000 1).1000 70.6000 IS. Innn G^VF6N+F .jT I, 7noo 1.90no 2.7000 3.3n0o , $.loon 4. 61no sfru e t VOICE 6.9000 71.2000 $6.4000 111. soot) WMIT0914c sfevlcfs T n L1 Ml t (,L1 may= 6. $One 7.6000 14. 70oc 10.6000 64.I one 171.4000 I pu1-ALIJP FL r4TIONS 116. $ 0100 1$4. . $000 3 64.10on 943. 2000 161v.200o 1147.1000 Sr"ICI IKOWA : AW11011117

•elandAft•r lk*:OvaI of IAtertq•r Traftic of I* a then 40 Pulse

Date category - LAW &81.11 •very

(half voice clrcults a 1000,

I+2`1 t^^^ less 1•r^ 1011 >^^' ?3L_1! l :3'1331?:.1•^1LII1C:^ VIS T A T••Ntare 01n4_ ► nvte466-4t 6.1&8&8 t A llive""t 49 11,- •x. 31- +• 66 0 ..•111111 10.701111 a. ^•. ear•([ t s14! 77.000" • 7.• w,^ To. 110100 4AV-'nfo ofeer 42` •.Ô,w A,nw^• 17.1110" G ^vt•• r yl -.•^1; n.•Mp 2).•oot •7.t^,- 1 i . I nn, ns • s r4Tev fulpi seffol I .fM^ on"6.000 ..7^'Irn^t. M" . nS vf anef4l •.1,A, 126•&80&8 2.6.01- It- Vs a%.#.19 1.0011, 12.•0110 la•.•-An 3111.7-1^ 7.•11-0 1.100 ^ ?6.0141A Tfllll H I 1-w 1 e f!0/YInI aeN^ 7a.^1A0 311.•&811&8 I1. I0- n a.. 1n10 I n" 1 86 11/rfÎJr toff- 1•.100^ 11)••Onn 317•,00111 •fa.NO- n f .. 1.,99. !.•^M •.II C,n ff. ^•r ^• fhTf. IJ.• r' 77.•01111 t•.2`^1- 11.•^10 a^,- -.-vre.•..1'do 71.711111 rf V • 1sTâ0 Tl.lnno 1:. 1901 1 •1••1100 G^vla4 I••?00 IAO.1n9A 713.awOn 1^ 1 %L knot l e [ rp / r nn 1.I;;,Oo iJ.70rr [OIU" S^fen •, Tt.rnoe I v1, *ACT Ivf Ia 14s"Is%10% 7 • ' "•1p1n 110.nnoo 716.1o1A 164." At IA* 11 1.2/or %an%%[ M^4. G,V1f 4rr4T O,yta4ry\• I•. IVIO 70.x009 11,1090 111 . 1!Inn I.anOn +31.•0? 67 ) . ^1nr IVATV II.•1nr •a TI" r %.At14G 1.10-0 •.Inns 71.31"it 43,7nrin C " We 0 Clal 71 off SMA*1W, 1.001111 4•10n0 •.1000 19.4,010 11,•0011 Nn4-r,AVra Ma p NJ 7.1000 1.ÔOn G-vfa4rC4• 11. loot e•,anAn 0.1-10 11.•1100 111.TO,n T- JAL I%tre•CTIV1 '.ÔOn 2.011,0 1.•n90 T.T9An TI.o-01 T•.tOnn PACfT1 swl'Cw14 114. 10nn IIts. li t" , 7 Is. •'1 An 1.1-^ - - 11.•1111, S DI :_D3:^_I!IYS^SSSC9 /•.•nn^ 16.1nnA 111.1^,n ta.,nAnn 1111.310-0 t1^.lnp^ ••a.lonr LIL:I3_ y1L-131 2^p a• I1D93 F-2`621• TI^^.I^ „ of S TS I fT F access lot TY'at a-"1411 TOAIn IV F air ttsG1 testy %n%-(','Ivf 0 •Ir f N1 e , An nn ln.Von^, [n,Âw• 31n^,In^, G^vrerr••II 7.7^ 111 I .0 nAA 1.^. M1 w nr•aef11 4•l 2.I 1 , ,11-, 11 II.A1v •1,•„- ^7I^,. a a[Sl r ilt 11,71^^ )1111 .rnf !SI" A. 1.111 ^^. ). /n ^ . I I ^.,^. CO 41c•lfM, te eCtsSM n.•0^^ ft. 4% t...... CPVVtVIf4C[ • •,st r ut 2.111^r •.n11pn 71.In,- •I.f^^• Nn4- ^•A Vf eat"IM/ I a.01nn 2`0.111^ •7.)NO if).PooA ",•n,^ 1\.,^,^- G^vff4rr 'T 0.SAAnnn, \./1111'1 rflten. SfaVIC[s 7.1&8111 I:.f - - A il.•^^^ 1f,^,n^ 0.1 O.enO- 2.)1,11 1.711 of T ^TII ersT"Iftrn aCC f st 11.31100 •1.Mnn 11. •'•^^ 1167^^^ Mr '. Arfrss Nftllâat •2.71-^ la1.Olin" y7o,@.Ann .•n^^ / r y T5161 •II^ n. 7rinn n. tnpn ".ff!efr I4, i f l6Gel., O. !11,11 0.•111111 p,an n ^ O, TwnA 11,1111111 IIVt t rtt A. • n 1^ 11,,11,^ 11.. ^nn gnVf effrr oil f,^Vfe.IrrylWm%- 1^.'.nnn 1',.nn,M IN, •nnn 6I.6.1nA T^l.l 11111". I•Af111n "n no l,\.,VA arr y tS" 11,1111111 A,\AAA 1.O'nnn n f0.•nn11 1'.00010 A %^nn •A.l,nn ID13. .L1L' LY111L__ 61: / 1 . Ann, • 1. •1r 1 1 ). 100111 7JO,tnnn 1716 ",111 •• 7. FL1S.tD1/3!t ► 1L3IL7Y: Ant, DoleINN-119T/or sf^4cf 1.3000 7.1000 1N • rr/ntT/. /gANSftf 1.0000 It.oOon 44.101n 110.600A lln4 -Gnvta Nflf N y 0.4011^ 0.11A01 wiff e 4"F VT I.•nor 3•Tro^ 1.00^^ 1T.a000 0.ton" 0.10011 0.)000 I113^CEI3/tD5 0.•000 1.•1190 ).nor" 1••001 7.100- 4.41n0- 11SLLilIYLDtJSJ a ► tl a Tlpys 27.1000 11.10111 1/1.701111 Sol' Iit e lI•S OSI P AC S101LF 0114-GOVfanolty, . 11 oOn I,Toon 1.•000 11.!000 frnvfa4 814! 1. tnnp .•00- I^.M eo 110.31oon sfcuar voice ► t.•one J.•ne0 •.•010 4.1oon 41.6090 f10NI Too INc SfavlCIS 21.1000 12.6000 120.1000 1aLAL- 8 11LFLLASE= 6••n1n 7.60on 19.00n0 11.1000 IIILLJL:- ILLIL ATIO 13 11e.•0nn 111,100r 14.9090 114.10011 3.1.1000 771.0000 1179.1000 10311.2`000

URIGINk P of AGE !S I 1 POOP QUACtTy 4t0^'1:[ Ot tiN+C I►!f[ffKTM7

Balance After Removal of I nters KIA Traffic of Lose ti.en 40 Miles

1 Data Category - 1119h Range ailwary

(half voice clrculte n 1000)

le T$ Seen 1969 1•M 1••S +^'70)

] u !.IIl93 ' 1SSIQYJLLL1Lî1:91 •116" Sef a " ê111 •ern 0616 T•aYtrta Y^Y-G^9 6 910+far •.S0)"0, A.l9en I•.I^^^ ••.•1100 11•.41nw t61,6Aee G9V06r 0 0 4T •.9011 41. 61-A 12.1100 2•.•000 1T. 1e •. 0"A 661(r •6A, f SS1Y; y 10 • 00 IY- s'-V9a% a fYr 6•l"lo 601100 ?. Tolle 210/ro0 10.10"0 •.•• Ano t v e104e Y1 A,610A ► n p 0.•0,111 1.2010 2.•000 •,^^^^ T,6n1n nAr• [rte ♦ 1-91 1.04 teftel r('N..^"V/4 wVNt •,)0,"0 .. ^ 11.6"0tn )1.l^,n 46.IÔA 1"r,T„w 6 a ., ,^n^ f914 or rf ?.J)"l 2.6" ^^ .. ^. ..1^y •.: 16. a -'^ \1. ^.^•'` • •'• 19 66 "0109"1 4. 100 r6.e"n" \\,•1111 {n ,^., 211 r.t 0)w, ••1,r.^n I^,. I,ww t -,a rr"I rt nl•^10 - sr t9a6^ , e t a-Ire• •.69nA w.e,Sn t, V1n^ •r. • A \" ,..^n I,,I,ww 6r.nts 1^9 IY/ar y.l.4.r 11 v6 6 Y-r*%1 21.711110 2 T, twnn 911. \nr1A 11\•{A'M Ir\,ti l,w ',•Va•-iN-It \11,911 A" If.. T(1^ •.I..•Irw 1 ^fSL tear"/et 11 'J° e T.1^,w l^r S rIO )9.•10'1 14,1^^^ T6^T"n^6•• 191• rnnn 2^ {,6w,w ;; ,,`w.." INC 'I ► av/e ft9"•ISE ^Y 14. 70 N • 61Vr TY a 0YT 0%n 7".e""^ •2.29An 1.1.61100) 141.0nA" T {a. \^"^ r,309 410f It 1 1.61"n ?.S"00 6.9010 1•.IA0,0 IA.90AA ••,@AA"

of IVail T1 of 1w4e1%C 1.1000 2.00,00 6.0000 C n••I • C r at rl rl %"ANlr1: 11.30n0 27.611"0 •7.611011 r0)Y • G^v 6 6r e 1r1 2.•'1"11 6.""nn •. g9vr•wr4f • "A o zl.soln • 1 ,9Ann T•. ♦1Ao 0).1700 e.6AnA 1.100)1 2,69111 6.6nA0 P. 414010) TOT\l I%f 6 •aCT1V1 21.9"Ae 26,6111 66,1100 210.•0010 699.611141 961,O0%0%A • •CRT S.I ' .11YC • • • I.l^91 1.a ' IN 9 7.•36n 16.1010) 10.111%e 11•.31111 I^^L_S1^SL ^S'1S31=J 76.470^ to1.•eon z.•.7^00 1.2.4000 111 11,10 2S .+911) CLLG1:QILa _: 61LJSt t ILAI12111 a lst a terl9 aCClss vrTrOaas A Ar t y 19TatTlvr •a SSAGf ?NArr Y^Y-'^V• a Y f-I •,110,0,0 6 t i7."IAA )1.2101 •0.60"0, 1°e.T^"n 601.1"0" (, 1 yr e-1 we - I t +.7100 \,2.10,0 7.\'om 16.In10 10.10)111 0Of8 Art ^vat 12.941) 9 ICS1'8 111 0.2000) 0.1101 1.1000 6.600n 16.Soln 66,sn-10 C0 r6 v401 1 4TI4 0% W AS, - e nCESSna n.61e0% M. 6In#) 2.60^0 CCYV[rlf-I'f 9ACS.rILf 10.8000 2%6A10 ••."^A0) rCY-;^v ar+ rt 1{.6000) • a 20,.9000 46.6000 46.10911 2.1. " A " 191.611^" ; • V6S 10.16 Yf 7.S1n0, 1.10,"0) 6.1119" 1S. S A 1 0) 71.4"111 ?2.?10, • 1111 9 ^ • S a aV1:IS 0.1000 9,6910 TCral 2.1000 6.6000 16.`1190) \1.•0,0)0, a f f rel(T911 aCrf9) 1t. 190 11 •?.Sloe 103.0900 7:9.9700 44 ? . 11111 13 To I.T0)nA ^ e [ r ACCISS r!rr0,9ai two 4r0 ILE 1 0.7010 T 0.79on 0.6010 0.1030 0.611'11 0.7011 •NAIL 1.e 6 9 6100 IElf Oe 6r 0.11110 0.?000 n.\nAn n,6nnn LIS+ S r"S 62,1111111 N ,en"" ♦•. 60110, Vsp4of-Or •.1710 11.6090 6.0,0)10 •,t9nn T e'VAL '10f4 ACCESS e. 2 110) 0 1.)1"0) r1.on"O •6.1000) 4n.t""0 16.8^110) I-I2L_ELty1 :al: 91111 91. SA 0)1 67.4000 126.6100 216.2000 •T•,TA"e 910.9,110 Lt:.IS.1tS^1!!L1:l T1CtiS 100 I a• /A f l o oYSI 1.3000 7. IA00 6.0000 22.00010 19. 10'10 OATS 110 T6 •/1ATA 10610Se11 117.1000 100)10-GOON re/rt 0.4no0 1.loen 1.9000 6.•00)11 10.20110 ??.•111" GOVr•Y 41 0,19110, ra m. 150 01 0.10no 0.6000 1.6"10) 1.111111 : ^ Lt_LI1S/!OS 1.0000 2.1100 10.2000 21.•010 61.1100 161.)non !11^LlU9tIIJS _ ^tr^luTtnIll S e fCIAI e u99ntf rACSIRILE %r%_"Vie lo g o YT S.Iuoo 5.7000 6.rolo 11.1000 23.eonn 60.11n0A Grvf -, . as 41 1.10)09 1.900m 2.0000 7.601%0 5.6Aln 1,90,n" SfCU f v0)10E a 9.1000 26.8000 62.4000 1.2.8000 wiN1 1, 01 1 14G S[aVICES I =AL SISGLLLASE ZA 4.8000 T. 60,00 20.6000 67.300,0 •1.60 111 146,10011 ICIILJLL-AM I ' AU = 116.4 000 11 6. 1000 4 06.1100 9 79.7000 166Q . so9n 7T17.600n

J^ 1r ey icI or"wr oisrss1K9T

Dot* Traffic C1rr1•t er V01.• FOCA111101 D•t•'vole• C•t•vory Rrp•ct•d Ca se Swontary (half voice eireult• • 10'0)

01:1 _IL!!Sl1331:,-IUL1C1I1:S3 "1 1 6 ♦• • r SI I• y n,.4 n y11 WrVT 6,tww, ^.•,w, L^r r• r rltt t f.0,,, II.S^... 71.6,,n 1).^,^w •.11nw T.1n,, 71.1^^' f1. 1 Cr • n nCffS111L 1r. 1000 1•.01t,n •.Inn" -VrrtpYt y. 1 .n,wn I I. 7new n.• ,• 71.11►,^ 7'.1"^' ^••. To 4k1.1['f1 7.n •• 1.•,,, r •Tr- Gh r• 4.141 t. ,,, r1 ^. 71.66^r .., tww ^ c'% v[• • 1 .•o„ ♦.7000 iS. f 1 . 101.1 •tIGM ti^tTO/ri n l •1%111 t'6^n7 , 1000 11.11,1)1)11 I1.IIn^ r6.IMen fc. »oo %#.loop ► t'1• S •• f^ r •[01v S 6r TM Io•.•ooc 111.6n,M fs^,•w,11 01 1 4 6%,Ov S.000n 6.0 nn, 1t.1, , •r.,Te J-%& ryT•% 0 21. 1000 r•.I,n11 it.9w011 ,^_-^y1.4•I VT •,,, elk. Potô 1.•21111 t.T 1l l M t•rr,/•/nlVr .,^ 11.f r 110 .'.•^.4^ Srfln r ^ • • 1•.0011^ IVtt•1Cf IVf i•1VS111SSID1. • T.'npn 11•.6000 1 %• .1000 117. totem InC 119V/•[S•nVff M^%-G"vr•%1wfvT 1 . , Tnnw ^ .. • 70. Tnnn Sr, I pM11 fi^v•6 1.6,1111 ..1t,^ 141.OMAM 71t.1nnw •0..!1111• n 6.61110 1:. So ilV.Tl T I.1 s «1.I^L I.+,e^ f,n,n, n " 21.•^,^ r1.1n2" c^ •.r •.1Meo r.7nor .:11 ► ?I010t«r•1.1- tn.sale 7.01%01 •1^w-G^vt*oval yt 2.41110n 4.01111 â 71.1M)0 ^v[•'•rrrl 0.100^ 0.69110 71./116^ 1.0000 11.0000 I T•t IMT[11!TIV[ 71. n Mown 1.19611 ),1011, rI Tn 1^ 71.4000 I n ..IOeo •• C r f T SrI T CMIMf I.l,,, 11t.êeo •T1.•eer I,Tn,' 1.90110 %n I y 1 - DL :/_ IL1 11 S r l tt lr e, 16.0110^ 7 1. .110 •p,6,nn rOr.^000 • 1•.100^ LLtLI1Z:&1-3I1t._/ r P- I I A:.t pki 1tS. •0011 1 [ 1.1'10^ •r S T• IC t 11 1C:15s MfTrD••S 10 10 1VISTI. T IVf •[fS16f T11rr h",-S • •r•r y. ^v 9.60 n^ 11.1100^ C^Vrr....,T P. )1.1000 11.100^ 11•.190' 6, 14w,n lTl.S^^^ ^ r f n r.•onn 1!.•O^^ .T1Dvtt sac s1 41 1 0.700 , 11.1,011^ 71.6111^ 0.1nn1 0.4000 1.rr02 ( ^ r•lr•1169IRS •19• '.` 01 0)C[ff11• 0,6"00 0.1rT,11 6.1111111 7.•OMe 2.700r It.ln'1P 71.7nnr M,^.",^v.•.1Yr^r IS.^nn, 70.7ner n vrr^T 61.•nnn 76.iMwr •,, On,11 111.11111^ l;^VT t,$n00 I.T,nO T.60no tt611 110 r f T• vtf • S A. Anne 1S.IOOn 11.1010 IS.InnO o.snnn 7.41n0 s.tnnn Tn t1t n r S T• I'I f ) 1cr•sf SI-1111111 6..61^ 11,•111111 'vrn lccrs t yr lrM r• 61'1111611 •'• ` nn " IIt.lOnn 71e.00^c 11, 1.T n^^ Two •v n Tftr% 0.10no n6 1 t r. 91k . 4v0 Tftlnr•Y US"t r.t. e V n1.- " li v 0-001141 !'• %1rrrYf 4• I. TT,M1, I. TOnr T"T,t ner% •ccrst n, n^, o.lnnM n.Tôc 1 1 . I „^ .. 111111^ „w Ic:et ^ LL:O!eli:' _^ll. 11.6111111 • .^ „^ •r,.,nnn 1•^. +oen n,r !T.,.wn^ I •.. 1 r • r.1 %•Cult I . %we, t.lnon MT• r g T•v/1.1,. 1uMSTf• 1,.11106 18. T OO, •o. Tn ^^ 416, 106^ 04 nr-4n V1.11•r r1 0.•"n 0.16110 C,vr n vrr.,T 1.•01111 r.1nn0 1.• „^ f.•,w, ItI1^tL:S'":S I.^n,^ 11.10,^ 0.7M^^ 0.11000 0.•M"!t t.1n^n ^.•onc W00oc •1.1111111 ûttuvli.ai3_t►ttt.tt^3l^bs • ► .1 ^nr "if fit r U• 6 0Sr PA C tl•Itf nrnr -Onvr•1r•1n 1 4. SAAM 5.1110^ Gnvr•v n 141, S. Tenn 6 :4) ,Tn,r ^n^ 1.6,011 I.TOna S.1 0411 v10C 1.•Onn .0022 0.TnnO 1tDalrrT•IML fl n vlcrt 0.•000 1.1000 r.•oeo iC1I1l_e13LL1 ud:Q115 1.4nnn 6. fnnn 9.0000 LoI1û^ 1ttL1tÎ1DlsIS 115.16611 151.Ino0 10.6000 11 .10"0 •.enec 1ro.TODO •.?.•000 p..Se n r 17S4.IMOr HAVICt Ci15A.4D ASSCStIQNT I Data Traffic Carried c.n voice recilitiA4

D6t6/Notc6 Category Low AAna6 6u0pAry

(half voice circuit/ n 1000)

iu•• 1,— 1941 to•1 Ions 2101A

^!L_L•!^S`1351^'+ ► ••rIClI1Gy3 ..1- ^^rr^i^l0f •4vn 10 . 4 T•541FF4 4 -•. - :- v a, •a•,r •.1+^^ 4.4,11 t l .1111? 20.6nno 70,5^11 71.snnA :4•,rr•IT 1.•010 •.•t,1 1.2000 11.2011 11.11^^ T. a111 RATC4 ••n1FStl•1'S 414-:-V r9 4"VT •.A+A9 5.7111 9.r1n0 IS.sonn 19.+0+^ 11.•^^, r - VF a• 1'•4 0 1, 600101 (3.0411 1.1411 1.11100 1.1111 1.00111 10 7 6 EVf9• rMI^M S^0[OI 4 4 4 V^4-',^vr fr1 9,1^n^ 11.1+nn 2t,pn10 41.5010 06.61 11 76,5010 ,,y44v+rV• ► 1.4^101 7.5+11 •.1000 T.601e 10.6n1n In,91n1 r.-y . rr, • T1f11 /Mr^r A++1 24.1 10 1^.511A 46.)111 oo.)nnn t6n,t1,1 111.6 10101 t:r t.rc^r^07i,9 110011 1AT1 r• -T•v •.6011 0.6110 II.90e0 2^.I1(3n 2?.7OC1 11,snn1 •ErOtf Jolt 0414♦ 4 1 4 - ;^V a9 4 Mr '0 21.2110 27. to" •6,4110 i6.1On6 r1, 4011 77.6nM r,nyia4 41 4.20^1 ).A^nn R.)110 9. loot, 10.4110 9.tnno TnT1t lam• 1^ 9 ft/+!1 T ' Ir S O ff) 29.1^10 17.?1no 65.10+0 106.1Ono 12A 6 1+ 1 170.7',mm I v TV A AC T IVE To4v)"It tl Or IN111+•r/•ES•1rSa •'^4-^-vr•y9lN• i6. 1^001 20.6^1A 55.11^0 1)). IOnO 2)).snnn 11). Anon C+vF a 44 6 r7 1.6nno 2.)10,o 6.1Ole) II.60(3o 20,.1'no 25.4161 • AIVA Tr T I + E 1104A•104Z. 1.s1(3o 7.Olmm 4.00100 1,1006 9.141 n 1. SnM C^• 4E•rIAL T1%f tM49T4G 14ruse-67v0AN r914T 2.9non 1,9nno 1.)Ono 16.•010 77.1^10 75.90101 G^V0 ••4 r fVt 0.1101 0.6000 0.7100 1.1010 2.5111 2.9100 T^T ►t IN T94 ACTIVE 21.0+^1 29.20no 7•.6000 170.6000 M .71no 616.010n .0(111 1115-•1I4c 1.1'111 1.?Ono 3.4000 /.)000 16.•11n 23.IOOA I:IlL_IIlI^ZSlaS _ 1SS1JI ?6 . o00n 99.Inn0 199.7000 366. 3000 $71.6301 71 7.?Mon

AESTOICTM ACC 0 11 4rTr7A4S AD + IVIS T•• Tlvr +. SSA,E TAAff 4ry-! VO a yoFVT 4. fin n1 17.01^n 19.21,10 61.10An In6,4n,n 1570nnn G^.,4.4..r4r 2.2101 2.0100 5.5010 IU.4006 16.90111 16.9100 M0 90 4 T l'1 0041. f 1CSi 3 1l a 9.2000 0.3000 11.1000 2.4010 5.1010 5.6110 Ctlav u•'t;A f iN; 1rnon P onCESSO• n.6no0 0.6000 2.)J"1 ?.2000 14.1000 71.7100 Cn4V rv ifW-''E f4CS1 9+ lF 4 r'V- 1 • 1 VF 0 4O F4T 111.6900 2A.S0(30 42.3010 10.2000 11.7111 114.1AA0 -Vra•,•r.,T 2.1111 ).1110 7.630) 12.6AOO 17.A00n 14,4000 V All • ^ n S C4 vI s 1.50nn 0.8100, 2.7100 6.7nno 7.•091 10.11nA T-7 4 1 or t?-ICTFn Access 11.11noo 41.60,,31) 69.9100 I10.40ou 2sn.6nlo ))1.6000 1 10 91 4 Arrrtt 4rTMl24t T u g q vn I FLEV O.IOMo ► )5' 0 0 4 ANn TF LE .•AM JS a t r"tS V n 4-r n Vf4N^r Vf O.9n1n ),SO M 1,9111 ;rysavrrYl 0.1110 0.)nnn A.2A1A T^T4l On 1.0000 1.0011 2.1101 ItItl EIL IS : y 1C 3611 • 1.40100 41.6eno 90.9000 !74.6oni 2S7. "In 37 1.610^ tE:S.i:S /lLLLL^' lI.1LY1 ' 1 v 0)IaT/+1 , PO4tF 1.3000 7.1100 7.0090 11F.400A 30.410'1 11.0010 DATA ENT • v/nATA TAANSfFA r^r-;nvr4Na1E NT 0.60011 0.11000 1.3000 2.400n ).4011 1.5000 C,ovF4v.avT 0.10en 1.1100 0.20nn 0.40on 0.61011, 0.60,no I LILL LuL /L73 1.1000 2.?n00 A.Snon 20.1000 42.9000 11.1000 3111-9LL1L= JS 4••11CATInyS S • ECIAL OUQPMSr S iCSI O IL F Nn• r GnvOAV •A ENT 6.10Ao 11.1001 S. 5600 5.600(3 S.•On0 •. InOo 1-M VP4 4 . F4T 1.6000 1.7000 1.1000 1.6001 1.41110 0.6000 S F CU4r VnTCf 0.6An0 7.1001 2.6000 " M41 T ^ a 1 14G tf4VICFS I r-' IAt 111CFLL" E_uS 6.60An 6.Annn 7.7000 9.11000 9.4111 S.100n ICI)L-ILLJ2LLIJI1CyS 11s. be) On 130.20no 3 06.1000 566 . 9000 8? 7.0000 1141.1000

1a srat• Ic,t vtrtA:lr Assrsay:-

Data Traffic carried on Vole rac111:axe

Data Nole • catayorl Nigh Range summary

(half voice elreult• a loOC)

lore 1\•, Iona loin Iw\. 0101,_

0^1e.1•.leSl1SS1.^^_e^" ► 1Cet109S Mir... tat'^/rl ^' eAh^ n o • A to 4h41 t• alnh-r.^y.•rrrMt •, \,nn ^nyrevr.vt t.\,w, 11.101,, 11.101„ f•. \AAA 4, ^•,• xatfr • e ^fr its trr. 1•. a0 nn 11.60114e 101.•„n 0010-Gn v • ah'1. •.1 •.^n Al ♦.101 „ n, 4\Yf •hat• yi ,.n n., M. It 1,•,^.. no'A r.••, lrl'... t e rr D) 7.1O,e M^h-'.nv r aArr . y1 \.Innw I loan", Pit. IMAM ,r,•^nn le,9n,n • ^- G^VI\V0.V• 1."nw, 1.M,w •.113,01 a,\inn 17.A0ne in? it MI LM SIR rf"/Yl nt fka1r, 7•.100) tl.f„0 A0.\110101 11 • .nnn1 IA\.•ww, IAt.. .^. ( •► r t•er3 /r rlun r )3110 01 nA .A 0 % x, SA At •.r^rr (.... rv••. e.1^e, 1).70101• T..innn .v,n ,w^ .1.1_. - h^% -'.`Vf•Vr' W 11 . • ,01^ ; 10 01 t^^, G,vrehrr.,1 lC.1nn- \0,x010101 01,.^,n01 •,,..... ). `^^, ...,^, ?.Acton 11^fA1 1 r. t a ff, r,1/^111.6 toff, 1 t. tnOD I 1% .401111 ► t\,1111"4, ) a, 1, 0p 11.10010 1"0 ^0101.1 loot • acloW r 1\4A1S•Ittl0h 17•.x000 IA•.\0"n 16 . 1 1M7.ia•/1(tanVt( h ^h•,^yr\y^(N• 1•.•` „ 70. "An a...DO I61.Annn faA.Pn,n 6 4-^^r,r G ^vN q \1 v1 1.6." 2.301nn 6.0010%r I.eelV;Tr sit, %4440lot" 14. 10nn 14.1nnn 11. •,nr ft•t 1.Rnn, 2.001010 •.•000 lu ti h' SMa•IMG 1.33001 11.•"010 1. an„ A r•h-G^VfeN r f Vi on M ♦,0301, l.Inn0 Iv . \0010 71, Onn3 ,wn G'^Vf•h'rr vl 0,1nnn 3.•3019 1.6MMO 6.1000 1101.1 ih lr0 a; • IVr 5.00"0 tic 21.0mm, r\,•nn^ 1)..01010 206. POOP aACrf, 11011 Ml.r. 11110.701010 11110.1 -0 1, I.Inn, 1.1,^^ ).\30^ 1.t^nn ItI1._DS2LLSlVWM.125 /A.nnw, 16.•0,01 is.Innn 1nl.onnn tl\.ton^ •61.•003 •\;,f^lo .^nn tLLG:EAiI' . ^^1L_ ►tL11:JI10013 ar S to 10f" a:Ct SS w1rReAt as" lvltT o &tIVF of It taarf rr')h-G'IVfeh.tf yr •.•^,^ 1).000101 )).•0"r Itl,lwn0 c. n v ee v rr.,1 11.•03" 201.\^^' 11.11010^ 3. : 0 1N, 0a fta t e.von^ I•.lnnr 111.010.01 t•.•^n i nval f aftl r llf 0.1o0n 0. soon , 0.o^or 3.or00 •.loon 11.101^^ cn ro ,/vICaI1rG use aa0EISSn11 0.•3"o n,•n,r :.tOn^ it,)rnr q. %m'0 );,n^n- rr1 •'v r Vl r V:f •a[Slrllr Alnt-;,yrehrt47 IS.a0o0 ;0.o"n^ ••.•+1010 of, .1 oft n lno,en,n r' n vt•vof v1 17\.1100" f. 1din0 ). 73on a. • 3 010 1 S. 1000 ( \. 7n,0 l T. a,ne tea : l a n t S r• vt r ft ".SAM, 0.1111nr 6 :.•nn0 .1Mr \.7f^n :.A^n^ 11nf1( 0 S7et[t!^ aCf[SS 11.1100101 •:,\ n, ► 0 131.11"001 :(,,0030 ):1.101010 ^,r ^ • E • •CCftt Ogg ?W110111% 6111.• tr• Av^ 7r1,69 0.1001 o a'l Coe A" A4r 1[lfG•A% 1111• • I"', M 104 - G n v f xrlof Aff 1.0,0101 G ^vE•v.lrv, •,1000 2.114401 0.10010 0.•nnr 110111x1 n• [v acct)) 01.1^,o O.IO M 1.10nn 4. boor, t,•n,n 101A 6_ 1l1:I12N1L =11l \1.•,0 ^ •t.so" in:.tnnn 27r.\nnr .a0 , r 6 ELI.(-JC]'1_.`.1LA! 1045 111..01010 1•IOJIx•/atS•0v4r I.Snn0 2.1000 6.0000 DAIS r Atfat/Da1. 1eAhtrfe 22.0000 41,1"00 10:.10no

3. 0 r 1.\010101 3. noon •.)"^^ •.1,^^^ 6nYfa wrV1 0.10 n? 0.IOOn 0.)0010 Jo.toon 0 . x r90' 0-.A••^ MAL f l y 1 105 1.9^00 2.11000 1.1000 2S.s000 SCilt.>YLDJia M 11 1 IM1. 1011.0000 S • EClat au •• ^tr PAC tlottI 2111 00 - S'1vt llh"f v1 •.lone rrwlavorhr 5.1700 •.1000 t.t•oo3 • 1,10001 •.10^' 1.•000 1.7000 I..non 1 SF( Lot f win lc[ I.?Don 1.7non 0.1onc elnlrlt not IVG SfavIcft O.tOno 2.11000 5.1000 1121k- S1S` LLt.hE= 6.4000 6,13001 (.soon ((,(10013 tt.sllno 6.on.•r ILIA: u t •• C > _lrA7Io la 11.•000, ( , ).0000 tt 31.0. We 71\.7000 7 01). 4 000 1.1...^^n

o agIF^,.,,t OF POOR ^,', SFWVI,Zt DEFUINO ASSESSMrNT

1 Met LOnq Maul Traffic (Balance %fter Removal of hinterland Traffic) 1 Data Cateqory - Expected Case Surr.a -y

(Terabits per Year)

love loom 1-101 Ilan Ions 2^n.4

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(Terablts per )ear)

I •la lea- tops lee, lee- 7nn-

06 III .I- A1LILAI1:9s MI G • SvFentrl^ r âM^ nalA 1FeYtrra N^V-'^VF total rl/ II7."InI, L^Vr aVwr.(t IS7.s,nn 397.1^ns lr'21.6m^n 76-7.1n1^ IIn.4010 t su. S•-7.1^^^ 1?I.a11"" onnn f49."pnn I Ak e. IAnn , aa l t w Ott%' ► SSIV;, 19 I.In1r N^V-"tvf9•IaFV1 l it . 1 101 1 ISO.?An0 G, Vee•Irt V. 301.1A1301 191•.960^ 1.^1?.Ilan" 1 70..17t . 11.^0^'1 IS.^11010 IM. IOno ' " Â11 e •. • e • Iwl'•w SaFr11I sc .lnn 10..•11".lo I^^ •^.•?001 as. Ss. 9 n 00 is 1. 200(' aIt.6^9^ 2('11.91^^ G^v Fe Vr f V1 I n .140nn I3l.9n^-1 24.0nno 65.A010 1)6.111"" 7F 7.o^n^ 1'11.1 611'..4 S e F r n/MI^f GA NG )99.6 11". 9. loon 1111.6000 L^v s •r F n/ ., Îll. teeFO 2617.aono !••?.1-111' I2n•e.nn^^ F • tev ,A 1 1 , 7 1 . 7o Al )S. 601n, er y ^1r ^^ ..110 66.1",0 117..0"^ 1.O.SM 7%..111"' 111..^01 , 1.7.Fnn^ 2?...,^( V1ev. , ^• 501.400^ 11.1.•^11, 11147.7 n no It. ?!)o^ 2C.0-1^^ 10.lnnn t ^ta t I'1. t e 1 F -1/4F6ILt. t•ffn 6..110C Is).+^1r 156.6000 110.1010^ 19e, An"n 1114.7""" 6 P 't. 7mom l-1 lee Art IV r It4 . trl its lnY II 19,1,11^ 1615.1An0 IN^.-11.1/0- te,Yst NnV-'. , VF-.1rt 41 77.A,nn In1,4-10111 16Q,ennr. on.?A-r 1+/1.60.01^ 7•.7^ ^r r.^Vrv%.r%I 0.6 MC 12.11""" ► .47 7:.111. 6n. annn 1)14.7^01^ 777. .1111, •v iva •• 71r t t••/FIVG 7.9nnn 101,^^0111 c n-mp a' I el 1 1 "r $04491NG 23.Sn,n So.9nnn 107.)^1^ 11/.11""^ #4m% - Onvf04"e4T IA.Anon 70.1n"n .O.,IOno 9e.1nnn 16,,1111," S.n,•,ns Gnvr a 011111' 41 I.1'nn0 2.)"n0 1.1000 10. loon 70.^^t^ )•.Inns TTnIAI IVIFaaCTlllf III.IA n n Iar,n.lnn PAC.11 %1.11'•11.10 )9e,Tomn 9114,7^nn toll.,^ „ 61167.•^^n 6.On11n o,4,n11 1..111^6 614.010" 766.,^,- Iola:_?1:^1:1yS_1SSlt^ 1,7\, nnnn al^.•,,. a41,•-1nn 19I..M-1A 4110. ?Ono on 7V,^ ^^ - 16611., +^^- tlC::5:^1:..^11:_I•._°11i1:1:^s 61Sn1rlFI) 4 1 r I ss Nr lun g . 5 an v 1\1tTeA11V1! mos%acf TvAsr St.T^nn 67.•11"" 161.610' 11(,nolf, 7614 +,nn Ienr,.,nn 1..Fn,n .40..11- 6('.911"(' 117.701^^ I.7, nr- ^F"eA/111VA1 PAC SI•Ilf ).1-101-1 4.ann0 ► 16.611^^ 61.7""6 l97,111n-1) SI),I01M rO r rUYIraTING then varKISsng I.•n"n Innn 17.1""(% 67.1000 1^^.9nnn 2.^,onn01 C,1 \VF,IfNC $ FACS19111 N^V- r:^VF • V re VT 16.!01"" 71.6"1111 64..1^"^0 73. 90nn 10). Tn 00 ,.111 G100%o uF V1 7.910101 1)7.7 ..9-100 6.111100 13.7016 16.!11"0 16.91nn • alt 6 nt sF'VlcFS 2.a-101, ..1n00 17. on^ 11 27.2ont, T^Tai, e !t te 1 , If^ ACrFSs )7..110^ 014,70%% 171.7-100 266.1000 64,6.7nOn 1171,Vmgn 'IO F, Ar'r tc Ne T1Ina6t 10014.61^^ /v t aV n 1'lry 1. Win I,.n"n 1.?onn I. anon •Alt r,e •- AN' /r 7. noon 7. Innn IrC9 A- 0.7 nn n n.•nnn ()..Onn 0.•,nn ils" .'•1414 1..^ Â '.\Ann N n V-' n Vr^vrr Nl 67), Innn A7...nnn 4,1,en01n f.^V F •4 + ' Y1 1040.lnn^ 40.9nnn ,lOnn a7,fnnn •0.7ftn^ T6Tal n09 % ACCftS 1.10"n. 1.6010^ 516.10^0 9S3.nnor 104^.1^nn IlNt.?Ann IA1l. 11n _tlf:I _OY1:_r_^ll v 1.7 171.6^,1 $02.a000 1601.70nD r•l..l n01n 60.0.1""^ &v i e INOJI r t^(1\tr e.Po00 10.6"nn 117. ["n o) 9.. noon )1..0^n^ OAIA fNTev/nATa TaaMSFf6 Sa7.1O6n 6r ItW -G1 Vf aY YT 0.6000 11. 6n"0 .0.900(' 91,14010n CnVFeM•rVT 7^0.101-10 .)•.7110'` 1. 1`n on 7..')^n t. 101 , 1S.90 ^0• )4.6nnA 76,^nnn 17.2000 In1clÎturt^s 26.anon 105.1000 201.7000 460.90010 1091.110" S1.SLE11lElt rylC li6tILlTIQyS & P ICSAL P U6. OSF FACS110ILF Alm-CM01100"F4T 76. 41000 10.onon GOVFeNrF Y1 41.70os 6('.7010 9•.low 119.100(' 9.0 1100 10.0000 11.4nOC 1s. 0000 a 2 ?00 217"no SFCII F V01cf 95.1000 e90't1T0a119G SFaVICFS 111.1000 2.6.69-10 611:Ino" 0.700o 1.7"On TfY A1 111 tr F " A mF 35.9000 90.Onno nIlS 99,9000 16T.CJRC )9..)000 6t5.So0C ]L nIAL ALL a • •1 I[aT10Nt 011.1000 1064.1000 7ve1.6000 6352.6000 12157.9/111 2975..1000

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(Terabits per Vesr^

Joe, I••s tort t••n 194% ?AAA

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APPENDIX C

MARKET DETERMINANT FACTORS

The baseline forecast reflected predictable events and orderly growth. Scenarios which describe less predictable events which have a high probability of occurrence were generated through the use of market determinant factors (Task 2A).

There were a total of twenty two factors used in modifying the data service category baseline forecast; ten separate factors in the voice services category; and seven events in the video services group.

The market determinant factors cover such areas as introduction of new technology, socio-economic and regulatory environment changes, competitive and price elasticity market changes. The events may have varying degrees of impact on different services.

The list of market events includes only those which are expected to have widespread market acceptance or impact. Therefore, the impact of a new transmission alternative would only be included when it-was in use on a widespread basis.

Also identified are a group of events which were considered but deemed inappropriate for inclusion in the impact model. The reasons for their omission are listed in Table E.

I r7 MARKET DETERMINANT FACTORS DATA SERVICES

Events Year Probability

D-1 Fiber optics installed for 1985 30 local interconnection (20 1987 25 or more metropolitan cities) 1990 20

D-2 Fiber optics installed for 1988 20 Intercity Transmission be- 1990 10 tween 10 SINISA's 1995 20

D-3 Dedicated Earth Stations 1984 30 (widespread and low cost) 1986 30, Ku Band or higher frequency 1990 30

D-4 High Speed (9.6 + Kbps) 1984 30 Packet Switched Electronic 1986 30 Message Systems (20 SMSA's) 1988 30

D-5 High Power and Capacity 1988 25 Satellites Uncl. 1990 25 Platforms) 1995 25 2000 25

D1~6 Digital Satellite Improve- 1982 20 ments (TDMA, BURST 1983 25 MODEMS) 1985 25 1987 30

Table A

=y MARKET DETERMINANT FACTORS

DATA SERVICES (CONrD)

1 No. Events Year Probability

D-7 Facsimile Improvements 1980 30 (VF) Advance Compression 1982 25 Techniques - High 1984 20 Resolution 1985 25

D-8 Trend toward Office 1985 15 Work at Home 1987 10 Electronic Inter- 1989 10 connection with the 1995 20 office

D-9 FM Subcarrier Broad 1981 25 cast Message in Use 1985 20

D-10 Public Acceptance of 1990 15 Electronic Mail to 1995 20 Home (incl. cost) 2000 20 Carrier provided by CATV lines

D-11 Connection of Domestic 1990 25 Satellite systems to 1995 35 international via inter- 2000 30 satellite links

D-12 Transoceanic cable use 1988 20 optical fiber providing 1990 120 lower costs and greater 1994 30 capacity 2000 i10

Table A

9 i

MARKET DETERMINANT FACTORS DATA SERVICES (CONrD)

No. Events Year Probability

D-13 Secure Voice 1984 20 Standardized at 32 1986 20 Kbps (instead of 1990 20 56 Kbps)

D-14 AT&T ACS Acceptance 1980 20 by Users 100 Markets 1982 40 1985 40

D-15 SBS Acceptance 1983 15 (100 Low Cost Earth 1985 30 Stations) 1987 30 1989 25

D-16 AT&T Transaction 1979 5 Network Service provided Y981 20 interstate 1983 25 1985 0

D-17 Management Acceptance 1981 30 of Office Automation 1983 25 k Practices (Equipment 1985 20 used by Managers and 1987 15 Clerical) 1990 to { i

D-18 Centralized Database 1982 120 Access 1984 30 1986 20 1988 30

r ray ,yk'.. W, Table A MARKET DETERMINANT FACTORS

DATA SERVICES (CONrD)

1 No. Events Year Probability

D-19 Use of EFT Services 1981 10 by the Public 1983 20 1985 30 1987 20 1990 20

D-20 Rapid Rise in Energy 1982 20 Cost (Transportation) 1984 25 Promote use of 1987 30 Electronic Info. 1990 25 Services (Telecon- ferencing, video, audio, computer

D-21 Terminal Compatibility 2985 20 Standards adopted by 1988 20 various terminal types 1990 10 1995

D-22 Widespread implementation 1982 20 of Digital Radio Net- 1984 20 work (e.g. DDS) 1986 30 1988 20 1990 10

Table A

a! 9 ^j K . 1

i MARKET DETERMINANT FACTORS VOICE SERVICES i

Np. Events Year Probability

VO-1 Digital Telephone Keysets 1985 30 - (Microcomputer based) 1967 25 - additional data services 1990 30 - home services 1995 15 • call transfer /forwarding • recording

VO-2 Viewdata/Prestel direct to 1983 20 borne telephones 1985 20 1987 20 1990 10

VO-3 Intelligent digital PBX's 1980 10 with additional functions 1982 20 1985 30 1988 30 1990 10

VO-4 Fiber Optic cable use for 1985 30 local telephone service 1987 25 distribution 1990 20 2000 25

Table B

y L L: t. . r MARKET DETERMINANT FACTORS

MOBILE RADIO SERVICES

.r No. Events Year Probability

.J M-1 Cellular radio telephone 1981 25 systems widespread 1983 25 1985 25 1987 25

M-2 Packet Radio systems using 1982 30 short bursts/channel sharing 1985 30 1998 30

M-3 Nationwide paging services 1982 20 available 1964 20 1986 30 1988 30

M-4 Mobile radio telephone via 1982 10 satellite 1984 30 1986 20 1988 30

Table B

i r I

i e 4

#, R g MARKET DETERMINANT FACTORS

RADIO PROGRAM TRANSMISSION

No. Events Year Probability

R-1 "FCC disapproves use of 3 1980 15 meter antennas for radio program receiving

Table B

it MARKET DETERMINANT FACTORS VIDEO SERVIC°S

E _ x No. Events Year Probability

V-1 Significant Tech. improve- 1985 50 ments permit digital band- 1988 30 width reduction (11 hl Hz, or 1990 20 less) for network quality

V-u Change in communications act 1982 20 permits networks to acquire 1984 30 and offer CATV services 1986 40

V-3 Emergence of many new in- 1985 50 dependent networks offering 1987 25 new programming bewiuse of 1990 25 profitability cf new alternatives

V-4 Dramatic change in fuel 1988 10 prices results in increased 1995 30 use of video transmission 2000 10 for business conferences

V-5 CATV orgs. deliver new 1985 20 programming via optical 1990 25 fiber T.V. systems (25% 1995 45 homes)

V-6 In-home video equipment 1984 25 reduces network/CATV 1988 45 programming demand ($400 1990 30 recorder $5 disc/tape)

V-7tj Slow scan video on digital 1984 15 voice grade lines becomes 1986 to widely used 1990 35 ii

Table C 3 MARKET DETERMINANT FACTORS i EXCLUDED EVENTS

Reason Code x 1 A 1. Changes in level of government spending; availability of investment capital

B 2. Increased use of hand-held portable telephones.

E 3. Video compression to less than 56 Kbps.

B 4. Voice activated switching and DSI (Digital Speech Interpolation) employed.

E 5. Demand assignment for video conferencing.

E S. Multiple spot beam antennas and increased frequency reuse.

C 7. Regional banks permitted nationwide operations. E S. 15 KHz stereo a.m. channels permitted by the FCC.

B 9. Low cost receive-only stereo E.S. in widespread use for audio program channels

F 10. Conversion of telephone key sets to direct digititation.

E 11. Execunet type services become widely available.

F 12. Use of high powered, multiple beam satellites for narrow band mobile telephone.

F 13. Integration of computers and communications in the 1980's create new services/markets.

' B 14. Use of video disks for digital data storage.

Ff G 15. Development of simple home terminal for pay TV, alarm services, ordering of advertised merchandise, and interketive games.

Table D i f:

MARKET DETERMINANT FACTORS EXCLUDED EVENTS (CONT'D)

Reason Code D 16. Inexpensive video screens that respond to the touch of a finger, a pointer or light pen. D 17. Voice recognition devices become inexpensive and reliable. D 18. Development of voice identification equipment, (e.g., for authorizing financial transactions, etc.). B 19. Development of a "voicewriter" that can prepare draft copy from dictatiion. D 20. Voice response systems become widespread and more reliable new uses created by mass storage systems. B 21. CRT's succeeded by flat, solid-state panels for both alpha- numeric and image displays. Used in large screen TV and portable computer terminals. Types: plasma, LED, LCD, ferroelectric ceramics, electroluminescent materials, magneto optic films. C/G 22. TV receivers with microprocessors allow other uses as information displaying devices. B 23. Microprocessors incorporated into all office typewriters, copying machines, facsimile devices, data terminals, and PABX's during 1980's. (Automated office) C/B 24. Remote use of intelligent copiers from digital data, using internal character generator and a laser imaging system,

F 25. Facsimile transmission will be limited largely to documents containing handwriting, graphics or other non-standard characters. . } 26. Widespread use of computer based PABX. ! F F 27. Interconnection of terminals from different organizations (via telephone lines) for computer based teleconferencing, electronic mailbox and electronic text processing (Domestic and Ifiternational).

Table D w

MARKET DETERMINANT FACTORS

EXCLUDED EVENTS (CONT'D) V

Reason Code

EIF 28. Switched video becomes available in 1990. Video telephones will not be commercially viable until after 1980's.

F 29, Picturephone Meeting Service (R)becomes a widely used alternative for face-to-face meetings.

C 30. Audi oconferencing becomes widely used.

D/G 31. ^oevelopment/evolution of the combined home terminal from: 1) the telephone, 2) television, 3) typewriter, 4) pay TV terminal, 5) video recorder/player, 6) the hand calculator, TV game and home computer.

B 32. Development and use of the intelligent telephone containing microprocessor, memory, mag card (or other data entry device) and LCD or LED readout. E 33. Development of home T0ex/TWX terminal for system access on public lines. (e.g. mailbox services)

F 34. Home facsimile terminals in widespread use prior to 1990.

Table D t REASON EVENT NOT INCLUDED AS DETERMINANT FACTOR

A. Event doesn't affect the domestic communications market demand

B. Event is equipment oriented and doesn't directly impact transmission

C. The market demand impact of event is trivial

D. Significant impact of event won't occur until after year 2000

E. Event is implementation oriented and doesn't significantly affect market demand

F. Effects of event included elsewhere or combined with larger/more general event

G. Effects of event are essentially local or short haul in nature

Table E r i

Li y "^

APPENDIX D

USER SURVEY DATA

All of the intermediate steps and final results of the user traffic study (Task 3) have been presented in Volume II, Section 3.

For market research purpose, a sample of the survey questionnaire given to median users from the top three quintiles of each user group is presented. The questionnaire was designed to determine both the user's present and projected eXpenditures and growth rates for transmission services. The questionnaire was sent to communication managers of representative user organizations..

The data on their present as well as future telecommunications requirements for voice, data and video communications were received and analyzed to support the evaluation of the typical communications user profile.

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APPENDIX E

METROPOLITAN AREA SURVEY DATA

The primary market research data on the Phoenix SMSA traffic profile was collected through the use of a personal interview survey. The questionnaire supporting the personal survey was prepared to collect data on a variety of subject areas:

• Flow of traffic between Phoenix and other cities

Local traffic patterns within the Phoenix metropolitan area

• Estimates of telecommunication expenditures and its distribution by service

• Present and planned use of earth stations, fiber optics, high speed data electronic mail and videoconferencin.g by users in Phoenix

• Total numbers of communications equipment in use

The length of the questionnaire was also designed to allow the interviewer to complete the interview in one visit with the user. Each question was carefully pretested to eliminate leading, ambiguous or intimidating questions.

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I. 47 APPENDIX F

PARAMETRIC SATELLITE COST MODEL

Task 5A involved the projection of C and Ku-band satellite service costs. The methodology for the construction of the Parametric Satellite Cost Model is discussed in Section 5, part 3. The computer model results are displayed in Appendix E.

The results display three sets of satellite cost data and crossover distances in comparison to terrestrial service alternatives.

The first set of cost model results show the base case costs for three time periods - 1980 0 1990 and 2000 and for the C and Ku-band transmission service alternatives.

The second set of results are for the same three years and transmission service alternatives, but crossover distances are where satellite costs are 20'1'0' higher than terrestrial costs. This alterr,ative was developed to reflect market considerations which require satellite rates to be 20;0 below terrestrial service to influence a significant traffic movement to satellite.

The third set of satellite cost model results were in support of the 18/30 GHz traffic separation. 'Scenario 3 in which .18/30 GHz system service costs were assumed to be 3010 below Ku-band service are reflected in the cost crossover distances.

All three sets of cost modelling take into account a steadily declining trend of terrestrial service costs. A reduction in the satellite service crossover distances is due to satellite costs projected to decline at a faster overall rate.

In addition, a schedule also found in Appendix F reflects the current terrestrial service rates for voice, low, medium and high speed data channel services on a private line basis. This schedule shows both the monthly fixed and mileage charges incorporated in the parametric model as the base year costs. Adjustments were made to these costs to reflect `A he anticipated decline of terrestrial rates based on historical trend analysis. A ' ^ 0000 V000ww 0000 •CPOCGG^ ^ « ^^q^,^C+1: ^^ P

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TERRESTRIAL SERVICE CHANNEL RATES

VOICE CHANNEL (4 KHz) a t Source: Type 2001 AT&T/WU Private Line Tariffs r

FIXED CHARGE STATION TERMINAL CHARGE TOTAL CIRCUIT CHARGE

$ 49.20/End $ 25.00/Terminal $ 148.20

INTEREXCHANGE MILEAGE (SCHEDULE 1

1 - 15 miles $ 1.80 16 - 25 1.50 26 - 40 1.12 41 - 60 1.12 61 - 80 1.12 81 - 100 1.12 101 - 1000 .66 1000 and over .40

LOW SPEED DATA (50 BAUD)

Source: Type 1006 AT&T/WU Private Line Tariffs

` CHANNEL TERMINAL STATION TERMINAL TOTAL CIRCUIT CHARGE

$ 30/Terminal $ 60/Terminal $ 180,00

IXC MILEAGE MONTHLY

r k 1- 00 MILES 101-250 250-500 501-1000 0100 ±

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f APPENDIX G

SATELLITE ADDRESSABLE MARKET DEMAND

The computer printouts of the detailed satellite addressable market forecasts for voice and data service applications are found in Appendix F. The intermediate step forecasts which segregate traffic meeting user and technical constraints are also shown. These forecasts of traffic relate to efforts found in Tasks 5C and 6C in Sections 5 and 6 of Volume II.

For both the voice and data service forecasts, the following similar traffic reports are shown:

e C-band service demand after removal of unacceptable user and technical considerations

Ku-band service demand after removal of the same two factors

• 18/30 GHz Scenarios 2 and 3 (similar service quality) after removal of the same two factors

e C-band addressable market after removal of traffic below cost crossover distance

• Ku-band net addressable market after removal of traffic below cost crossover distance

• Scenarios 2 and 3 net addressable markets after removal of traffic below cost crossover distance

• Scenario 3 forecasts reflecting the effect of the 30 price reduction

The voice services market forecast is shown in thousands of half circuits. Data services traffic demand for the C and Ku-band and 18/30 GHz scenarios is displayed in both terabits per year and megabits per second.

Video service forecasts were calculated without use of the computer model and.-did not generate forecasts in a greater detail than '.those already found in fart 6.0 of Section 2.

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• S9RVICC o[IWID ASSr41NM- •••-•►

user AA", ARlrieoetelon1 Cher^ teslitTee

D•t• Category - SIlPeeted Case 1 uw%&ry

(Terabits per Veer)

1911 !9110 1945 1990 1995 2n0M

Oli1.I!ed3^13S1BjL ^"PLlertjpys N ► G1I ;PCrn/WIOF RAND MAYA YRAN %fCR NOM- rfM 4NMfNT 46.,2000 11Y.MOno 125.5!1 110 9111410n0 224101000 S6?64,7 01 9n 4nVF4NMI4T 760RODO 99.1"o 280.00011 51100000 1011,1000 194909n00 RATCH PRDCFSSING PInN-GOVrRNMENT 0404000 11311000 =f2•Sono 412.1nnn 053.1000 141901000 1 404000 IO.snon 21.0000 4401000 1165000 129./000 G1 vf ► 44C4I DATA ENTRY (MIGM SPEEOI NnN-GOVE R NMENT 3164000 9007000 30a9Onn !!1.6000 463.4000 205401Oo0 GnVEANMCNT 169000 (0050o0 2300000 51.1000 1264SOon 27592000 TOTAL NIG H SPEED/WIDE $AND 105.1000 402.5000 953.3000 836104000 5842.1000 11494,1000 iOw SPFEn/MEnIUM S ► FED DATA ENTRY 2001000 25.4000 SO.TOno 9503000 16003000 255.0000 4ENOTF Jnm ENTRY NnN-GO0 0 4MENT 10.5000 104.5nnn IISoOn011 4?4000nn 119.4mmn 12)11.00no G'Jv FR44r4T 12.11150 1'l.Sonft 30.1 ona 57010n0 950 30118 (50.1000 TOTAL LOW S P EED/MEDIU M S P EED 112.1000 145.4000 Rio I * 51414000 495000In 160501400 ' ( INTFRACTIVE TRANSMISSION INOUIRY/RESPONSE NnN-GOVE R NMENT 2604000 42.8904 160.#.nnn 44/.1111'1 I144.50'1'1 ,1544.69'1^ I OUVERNMr4T ?.9nn0 408000 17.01J00 41. ?A 14 99.4044 111,%Mnt PAIVAIF TIME SNARING 5.1000 1.7400 I1.609n ld.6n49 ?4.?ln0 1%n.7%M CDH W FRCIAL TIME SHARING NnN-GnvFRNMENT 901000 1304090 3?.1094 10.11100 1?4.nn1n ?ti4.7n"m AV VFRNMEVT Is Ono I.Soln 306n1n 7.9nn9 1•i.7nn4 •••.4101'1 TOTAL INTERACTjVF 1%5.90Co 10.2on0 2)1.61In 65106010 14 I1.S0no )IIf.RnzO P 4CKf/ SWITC11ING 1.A400 661000 18.99n9 S9.5nno 186.7nnn 545044'10 Z1IA1-9AIA.ISASS:JSS1Q1 461.'1000 62406000 1497.6000 1661.9000 1901090no 16060.Yn94 ELFCIt1tl1L_y.11L_eLtu rAT Y°wc AFSTRICTPD ACCESS NETWORKS ADM INISTRATIVE MESSAGE TRAFF NiN-nnvrA4MFNT 1606000 4905000 12609490 310.2000 11904noo 14110900 GOVERNMENT 8.5400 11.2nnn 74.6000 51.1010 91.4000 11400n00 OPERATInNAI, FACS1 14iLE 2.1000 4.1000 16.2000 65.7000 2OS.Ino0 629.9000 COMMUNICATING WORD PROCESSOR 1.4000 2.3000 1004000 17.T00n 91.0000 227.1000 Cn4VF-NIFNCF FACSIMILE 61ON-1 nVERNMENI 1.1900 2.6000 106000 16.4000 26.3900 4401090 GOVERNMENT 061000 O.S000 101000 209000 5.0000 A.on0© MA M OV SFRVICFS 2.4000 301400 10.9000 250.6000 510000 126.9000 TrTAL RESTRICTED ACCESS S307000 7401000 19109000 51004000 1169.5000 26190000 OPEN A CCESS NETWnRKS TWK AND TELEX 1.2000 1.3000 165000 109000 ?05900 7.2000 MAILGRAM AND TELEGRAM 0.2000 0.2000 0.4000 006090 1.3000 2.10no UFPS Fw%S N^N-GnVFR4MENT 401.3000 920.0000 1002.9070 106503000

GOVERNMENT 42.4000 0000000 41.3090 94.5000 y TOTAL O P EN ACCESS 1.4000 1.5non 931.6000 1002.1000 10% .0'700 1165.1000 hill-ILUISMU C-MA I L 9561000 15 0 6000 72965000 1511 . 1000 2263.5000 380406000 EEIS_JI A-ellCATIDU5 INQUIRY/RESPONSE 263000 403100 20.3000 6406000 16604000 434.1900 DATA ENTRY/OATA TRANSFER NON-GOV! MENT 5.9000 9.2000 10.7n00 7208000 11 S00n0O 311000.7 G4VFRNNEO 1.1000 1.6000 9.3000 1209000 24.4006 64.0000 I ZALrEm/ pus 903000 13.1000 5001000 14909000 36101000 073.0000 y1SLILLAUIDU S APPtICATIOUS SPECIAL PURPOSE FACSIMILE NON-MVER Poll ENI 24.3000 21.1000 380AD00 6200000 97.900fj 166.7000 GOVERNMENT 061000 900000 12.9000 IS0!000 24.9000 2207000 SECURE VnICE 38.2D00 101.1000 250.9000 600.1000 MONITORING SERVICES 0.2000 1.00" 1JUL-r1SLE1LA2= 32.4000 36.1n00 69.7000 11902000 36165000 101.1000 LaU-ALL-U PL le A^tIeiMds 564.1000 15104000 2373.1000 550491000 10901.7000 1231604000

ORIGINAL PAGE IS ! OF POOR QUAL ny LRy:OL mwp Alssrso ONT

balance After Removal of Onacoaptable User and Application Charactariatioa

C-band

• Data Eat"Ory aqat1W Casa Inow ry (forabita Mr, Veer)

1971 1940 1915 1990 1941 ROOD - ......

OL1A.UA y3C11= A!1LMU1OVJ NIGH SPEED/WIDE $AND DATA TRAN%FEr IMN-GOVERNMENT 9100000 314.1000 141.4400 06404000 8414.7010 5939.30nn OHVia4MFNT 91.1000 IiWiaoo0 832.2000 14106000 109005000 105461000 DATO 13 ROCM ING NON-GOVF4449NI 9761000 110020DO 14101000 49404000 16604010 141911not GOVERNMENT 1.9000 1184000 12.7000 46.0000 7901000 129.1000 DATA ENTRY INIGH SrEE01 N1)N-r.OvERNMENT 19.5000 ` 5101000 115.1000 A61910n0 IT 5.0"On 2051.1000 GnVFRNMFNT 10100D 10.9noo 14.90 00 $1.3000 12109000 21S.2000 TOTAL NIGH SFFFD/WIDE $AND 1!201000 42407000 1000.2000 1477.1n0.ow $45202040 1114060000 LOW sv t rD/MEPIU• PUD DATA ENTRY 2001000 tS.Rno:^ 70.7000 95.1000 160.1100 755.0000 OFMOTF init ENTRY NO4-GUVFR4*rNT 10.5000 10415000 213.0000 4.140s+ T%9.4110 1 rpm. nn00 Gn,VFR40FNT I1.ln0n 15011on 10011na $701onn 55.11nn ISn.1nn1 TOTAL LnW SrC FO/MFDIV 11 SPEED 117+1000 145.4no0 1V33Moon >16.40n0 9v+. ^910 1415. 000 iNTrRACTIVC TRAN%MIS5Ir N INOUIRY/NFSOONSC N!?N-1V)VFN`09ENT 27.V000 4501006 1640060 5:5 r50nn 120h.Y901 26 4#^. f "+^ GOVFRN'4F'i1 101000 S.010o is.enoo 4b.fon0 1940190 let.+^n' PRIVATF TIMF SNARING S.TDCO 100100 17.40110 36.9nOo iF.;+on1 I"O. t^j' C061 4FRCIAL TI M E SNARING 7h4.7nne NDN-3RVFRNMFNT 9.0000 11.4000 3'► .1000 10.5000 (79.an1D GnVERNMrN1 I.Inio 1.91100 1.4on0 1.9001+ 15.4 n1n 79.41100 TOTAL INTf%ArTIVE 4104000 17.0000 14100000 61145000 154704110 137e.701n sACKTT Sw1TCHING 401n00 4.4000 20.1000 to3.001n MOW 410.90,4^ I1131.DAZL_YEdJ33S351t25 4R7.ineo 649.410n 155S.90nn 110046000 119:.1nnn 11453090,40 t LELI ,F1'11. _JE1L.de_L1C,i11Cy5 aCStRIr..TFn Artr$% NrIwnkKS 4DMINISTnATIVE M FSSAOC TRAFF NnN-nnvfANMENT US An no S7.70oe 1#400000 3ie.inno 750.l1nn 1577.AIn^ OnVFR4wFN1 900 0100 11.9non 1645000 $6.4000 101.1010 144.41nn OrFA4TInN1L FACSIMILt 3.1000 4.60,40 1709700 1200000 227.3000 691.9000 CVOIW.ICATING WOWn PROCESSOR 105noo 204000 110i0o0 42.3000 1010900 251001000 CnNVrNIrNC[ FACSIMILF NMN-GOORNMENT 16.5000 11.1000 4602000 11.6000 111.1n0o 146.9000 0MVEANMENT 2.9000 109000 8,0000 1101000 19.1000 19.910^ MAICnnx SERVICES 201000 1.9on0 11.5000 27.2000 40.+)ODO 193.6000 TOTAL RFSTRICTED ACCESS 1401000 10106000 251,.6000 429.1000 1115.0000 10240006 O1+ FN ACCESS NFTMORKS INN AND TELrr 161000 134000 1.1000 t01nn0 2.0nn0 1.11)0C MAILrf e A w ANn TFLEGRAM O.tOon i1.pono 004000 o.4nnn 184nno t.-lonc UPS FMS: Nn4-GOVERNMC4T 4e703n00 97060nn0 100T.9000 10e5.3non

0MVERNMENT 42.4000 00.0000 0101000 94.5000 TOTit n ► F k1 ACCESS 101000 166000 51141000 1001.0000 1094.4000 1115.6000 t li:►L _ E L 1: CI d Gl11L..tl111 75.1000 103.2000 19004000 161:01000 2419.4000 4209.9100 LiiS,. J1S /IEPL1LlI1DdL5 INQUIRY / RFSOCINSF 2.4000 435000 2136000 61.3000 11109000 467.5000 DATA CNTRY/DATA TRAN%FER a :NnN-GOVFRNMFNT 601000 10.1000 31.0000 t 71. 1000 176.5010 391.400n &%C,OVERMMFNT 192MDO 101000 S.IOOo 11.6000 3004000 61.So0C UZA"1151ens 1001000 1606000 61.0000 16100000 10400090 922.4000 RUCELLAULnusrE pL In hi 1eUs SPECIAL PUR P OSE FACSIMILE WON-GOVERNMENT 16.9000 3000000 42.1000 61.1000 i 104.500c, 104.7100 OOVFRNMFNT 9.6000 1000000 14.3000 1702000 21.10Oo 75.7"00 SECURE vnict 40.1000 10703000 1173.3000 41401000 MONITORING SERVICES O.to00 100000 >^^illlsstl.^zs3 1S6 9000 4000000 9T04000 193.2000 40901nOo 14S.loon 109.1000 009.6000 110401000 511706000 1146504000 11471.7000

r 0000 000_,0. ,s _ .-' _,+k"_ •_:__:. 0000:.,_- ^.r _^w^."r".".. rmn rte_ s-.--+^^. .._..^_..__;_ _ ^ -4A A n v §§04! )

{ r^949r 22-- sw^§^^ m^ ! i $ll

Pa e - ^r $ fy o |^ 0 2 $ $ | I R: 2 7 . .. 2 0n / (A low E Poo ~ , I § ^ ^ $ $ | ^ n _^ 2^ ^m noom ^ R .^ IA § N ` g o { ƒ k .11 N. .^0. of\ kn o ,_| k ^® ~ Elin © i

^ ^ k § § } k

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a ,

k StRVTCE DEIUING ASSCSSMENT

saiance After Pummoval of Unacceptable User and Application Characteristics 15/30 INS - scenarios 2 and 3 Oats cata/osy + •apeeled cote mom (Terabits per Year)

. 1976 1950 less 1990 1995 200o

6!1106!!'4 LlSS1Dy 4r. r l^111i1i HIGH S ► 'h Fn/WIDE 6441 DATA TRANSFER N0N-GDVFRNMENT 1606000 104.9000 29000000 414.2000 2 0144.1000 S034.4100 GDVFRNMFNT 66.1000 56.2000 196.0000 459.500n 92101000 1744.7000 RATCH PROCESSING NON-G1IVERNNFNT 6307000 101.10n0 279.gOnn 411.9inn 494.Inno 1441.nnnn G1`VE P NM I NT 169000 In.3nnn 71.50110 44.4()nn 47.60n0 I4n.Pnno DATA FNTRY IHIGH SPFEDI NO4-GnVFRN4ENT 13.1000 45.1000 116.4000 317.9000 T11.40n0 164704000 GnVFaN4FNT 790000 4.1001) 20.6000 51.1000 112.2000 24700000 TOTAL MMM SPEED/WIDE RAND 216..6000 144.7000 $14.4000 2101.1000 463•.60(10 1005.145. LOW SPEF MMFDIUM sPEEn DATA EN'4RY 16.6000 20.1000 39.5009 74.1000 126.in00 2n1.s00D k jw ITF Jn q ENTRY NnN-GrjvFzNmFNi 62.1000 5100007 165.5000 329.4000 576.1000 951.P000 nnVFRVMrVT 9.4000 lt'.n9D0 21.1000 44.40nn 7402000 117.7000 Tn1AL Lnw SPEFD/MEMU N SP EED 67.4000 11101000 711107000 44V00000 116.4000 (71003000 INTFaACTIV F TRANSMISSION • INQUIRY/4 9 SPON SF Nnot-G'1VFAN V.tNT 14.0000 21.1000 69.3000 196.7000 $07.0000 1241.6000 Gt1V14NMTNT 1.5000 2.3000 7.7000 17.loon 44.0000 66.3000 PRIVATF TIME SHARING 4.1000 5.1900 13.0000 29.300D 54.70no 116.0con CnMMFktIAL TIME SHARING N1TN-GnVFRNMENT 6.0000 562000 1906000 43.6000 66.6no0 164.9000 G1IVF.P44rNT n.7onn 0.0000 2.1000 4.9000 9.6000 18.3000 MAL INTERACTIVE 26.1000 1642000 11700000 291.6000 707.1000 1676.1000 PACKET SWITCHING 2.7000 4.3000 13.6000 42.9000 135.2000 425.4000 " 5 0 341.2000 $27.1000 1226.3000 2964.60()0 6453.1000 11Ens),J000 i #FSTRICTFn ACCESS NETWORKS ADMINIST R ATIVE MESSAGE TRAFF NDN-GOVF4NMFNT 30.4000 4107000 1100000 277.4000 624.8000 1333.3nOD GnvTRN4 F NT 7.10n0 904noo 21.3000 46.200n 69.6000 164.3000 f n ►FRATION4L FACSIMILE 2.7000 4.1000 15.3000 62.2000 194.3000 996.7000 i COMM11641CATING Wrmt PROCESSOR 103000 2}2007 1n.0000 36.6000 95.6000 277.1000 C014VFNIFNCE FACS1041LE NrN-G1VERNMENT 10000 2.6000 106000 1604000 24.3000 44.1000 GOVERNMENT 00000 0.5009 1.3000 2.9000 5.0000 6.0000 NAIL00X SERVICES 2.1000 3.3000 9.9000 21.7000 93.4000 119.eo00 TOTAL RESTRICTED ACCESS 4506000 61.6000 175.6000 465.6000 1091.2000 2411.3000 OPFN ACCESS NETWORKS 1WX AND TELEX 1.1000 102000 105000 196000 2.4000 3.01300 MAILGRA M AND TELEGRAM 002000 0.2000 003000 0.6000 1..000 2.0000 US"S PMSS NON-GOVERNMENT 46700000 694.4000 a 969.0000 1065.3000

GOVERNMENT 40.6000 TL.a000 66.1000 94,5000 TOTAL OPFN ACCESS 1.3000 1.4000 509.4000 074.6000 1076.7000 1104.6000 IJLL,&LZ-L11Q N1L MAU 46.9Dnn 6 5.2000 665.0000 1440 . 4000 2169 . 9000 367601000 EEIS.JJS /!°-PLILATION9 INGUI U YI RES P ONSE 102000 261000 5.7000 2%06000 74.6000 21300000 OLT4, ENTRY/DATA TRANSFFA NON-GOVERNMFNT 4.9000 7.6000 25.3000 60.2000 137.0000 109.6000 GDVFRNMENT 0.9000 103000 4.3000 10.4000 23.6000 5363000 r IJZ " E15 /PCS 700000 1160000 36.3000 " 0 2000 235.2000 976.1000 ^ EOLS_l PP1 ru7rel,^ SPECIAL PURPOSF FACSIMILE NON-GOVERNMENT 20.4000 22.6000 32.5000 '92.2000 52.5000 140.4000 GDVFRNMENT 6.6000 7.6000 10.9000 13.1000 20.6000 19.2000 SECURE VOICE 3309000 90.4000 21002000 514.0000 MONITORING SERVICES 0.10100 0.5000 1DIlLlIiiLELL!1l011S' 2707000 1094000 7163000 Us.t000 1733.4 0 694.4000 1 R4t LL lPtUcA7rews 41401000 42509000 2026.9000 669609000 919165000 Ndss^9...

i`00;00+?,. ..^^

..^ ... ,.r. :.. : _.. 00,00 ` .. xt•.:ur_ _; -:.... •.._ _ ..,_ _0000.. ..,. a 0000.._ _ - I r

1ERVICC DEIIAIID A$SE66tMNT

balance Altar Addition of Price/Dwane Elasticity Advantage

11/70 OMa - scenario 3

Data Category - Expected Case suwary

. (1hrablts per Year)

1911 1940 1915 1990 1.95 2000

RAIA-18JUSUSUDN Am leiT nas HIGH S O FFn/HIDE RAND DATA, TRANSFER NON-GOVFANNENT 1204000 1126 ► on0 ]11.1000 116.1000 2197.4g0^ 5412.OnOn GOVERNwP4T 11.4000 9401000 210.1000 494.00Dn 992.)000 1/1S.S000 BATCH PROCESSING NON-GOVERNMENT ♦000000 11102000 247.2000 521.10on 960.400n 1656.5000 GOVFRNMFNT 1.5000 11.1000 23.2000 4900000 11.1000 151.4000 DATA ENTRY INIGH SPEED) NON-Gf1VFR44ENT 55070on 41.5000 125.1000 341.7000 171.4000 1985.9000 GOVERNMENT 1.5000 9.80on 22.1000 54.9000 121.'000 265.5000

TOTAL MI4H S P EED/WIDE SAND 297.50170 594.10no 940.00001 2144.1000 5191.1000 11146.1400 LnW SPECO/MFDIUM SPEED DATA ENTRY 16.1000 21+6000 42.5000 10.3000 11S.6n00 216.4000 REMnTF J00 CNTRY NnN-GOVFRNMENT 61.1000 11.1000 117.9noo 154:6000 614.3000 1023.2000 GOVFKVMFNI 10.1000 12.9000 25.1000 41.1000 79.0100 126.0000 TOTAL Ln^-' SPEEO/MEDIU M S ►!RFD 911.0000 121.6000 245.9000 462.1000 174.1000 1365.6000 INTERACTIVF TRANSMISSION INOUIRY/PFSPO'ISE NON-GOVERNMENT IS.0000 22.7000 74.5000 211.5000 545.0000 1))5.0000 COVFRNMFNY Is ?060 2.5000 1.1000 I$.40DO 41.3000 92.1000 PRIVATE TIME SNARING 4.9000 601000 14.0000 71.3000 64.2000 125.6000 rf1w4EP'IAL TIME SNARING NON-GOVFRNMENT 6.5000 0.0000 21.2000 46.9000 9).)000 177.2000 GOVFR4wr4T n.1n00 1.0000 2.4000 l.tnnn 10.4010 19.1000 TOTAL INTERACTIVE 21.4000 41.1000 1;0.4000 113.5noo 760.2000 1750.2000 PACKFT SWITCHING 2.9000 4.7000 14.6000 46.1000 145.3000 457.1000 IZALDA11- 12ANS" I S S ION 42707000 S61.SD00 1720.5000 3117.0000 6917.3000 14919.9n00 El:CIJ.blL-t3iL.. 1ED1 ICA 'j= RESTMICTr n A,.CVSS NFTWGaKS ADMINTSTQ01 VE MCSSAGF TRAFF NnN-GOV FP NmF m T 32.1000 44.1nno lib.4000 291.2000 671.6000 14)).1000 GriVFlVl4C4T 7x•.6000 IO.I0n0 2*.9000 49.7000 960000 176.6900 n ► FRATInNAL FACSIMILE x.1000 4.40nO 16.5000 66.9000 201.4000 641.5000 Cn w MUNICATING MOP€ PROCESSOR 1.4000 2.40n0 IO.K000 39.60no 107.0000 244.2()n0 CONVFNIFNCE FA,CSIMRF N'IN-GOVERNMENT 1.100n 2.1000 1.1000 17.7000 70.4000 47.4000 GOVFR44FNT 001000 0.5000 1.400n 3.1000 5.3noo 6.4000 MAILROX SFAVICFS 2.1000 3.5000 10.7000 250000 $704000 121.1000 ?nLAL PFSTRICTED ACCESS 41.9000 61.5000 11101000 S0o.7o00 1172.9000 2671.2000 O P FN ACCESS NETWORKS TWX AND TELEX 102000 1.3000 1.6000 119000 2.6000 3.2000 MAILGRAM AND TELEGIIAM 0.2000 0.2000 0.4000 0.1000 1.3000 2.1000 LIS P S EMS$ NON-GOVERNMENT 50200000 961.5000 1063.1000 1466.7000

GOVERNMFNT 4101000 11.6000 92.5000 101.60no TOTAL OPEN ACCESS 1.4000 I.S00o S47.T000 1041.10no 1159.500n 1271.6000 IJIAL-L"rli nfi lr MAIL 50.3000 70.0000 754.5090 1549.$000 2))2.4000 3951.1000 1m.=S/APPU jt w tNOVIRY /S ► nNSE ' 161000 1.1000 904000 27.5000 10.4000 221.90Do DATA FNT Y/DATA TRANSFER NON-GDJFRNMENT 9.2000 1.1000 27.2000 14.1000 147.)000 333.0000 GOVEKNMENT 1.0000 1.4000 4.7000 11.1000 25.4000 S7.3100 I..IA"US/10S 1.5000 1101000 4103000 103.4000 252.9000 619.2000 JUSLULANaLLS ,AZILLU LIM SPECIAL PURPnSF. FACSIMILE NON-GnVFIINMFNT 22.0000 84.5000 75.0000 56.1000 11.6040 150.9000 GOVERNMENT 704000 1.2000 11.7000 111.1000 22.10an 20.6000 SECURE VniCE 16.5000 97.2000 241.4000 974.0000 MONITORING SERVICF$ 0.1000 009000 IMALAUSCaA19126 us 29.4000 120000 13.2000 167.4000 151.2000 146.4000 UUL L UZ ie6tMW $09.9000 11600000 2 111.5000 5006.3000 9110.1000 202)79)000

I ItItVICL DCtWD A6:G6MM ORIGINAL PAGE IS Not Addressable satellite Market OF POOR QUALITY (lot once After Ammoval of Traffic below 'terrestrial /satellite Cost separations)

C-sand

Date Category - ti}eeted Can •eRlaary (Torbbits per weer)

Me 1960 1945 1990 leas rRn4

A&LA-1tAN5%!3S1 0N APP Jt 11OU NIGH SPFFn/wIDF RAND ► DATA TRANSFE4 NON-GnVFRNMFNT 16.2nno 44.41100 147.900n 444.90nn 107S.90no 2i10.R0n0 GWANyFyT 12.2000 41.6non 9Y,9000 250.1000 4050ROn0 •70,1000 OATCH ►RnC ssm NON -GnVFRNMENT 40.2000 5103000 1116.5000 35103000 S97.4100 919.6000 GOVERNKENT 1.6000 499000 12.000D 1205000 $4.9000 85.96n0 DATA ENTRY IH16H SPEED! NUN-GOVFRNMFNT 250400n 114.3000 9S.Innn 271600n0 69306000 169140non GOVFRN"ENT 5.4000 6.9000 16.60DO 44060n0 101.6000 226.1000 TOTAL,Hifw SEED/WIDE NAND 1410000 166.6000 50900000 1401060no 1009.2000 6323.90nn LnW % P EEn /MFn1 1 I'k SPFEn nATA rNTPv te.tonn 23.Sn0n 46,7oon 90000no 152.3000 !ALTO" R1MnTE J n n FNTP1' NON-GOVFRN4[11 92. 0,000 611, 1 nnn 1%3.700() 1114, ROno 611.enon 1CS4. tn0o GRVERNMFNT 1.9mnn 10.1 (lnn 21.7000 45.1000 120.9000 TnTAL LOW S P FED1 0d FDIUM SPEED 16.4000 101.5000 222.1000 469.9000 042.90no 1427.80n0 INTTRACTINF TRANSMISSION INoU1RY/RESpnNSE NON-A,,rl V1: PNM F NT 22.6001) 16.4021) 1.31.7000 435,0000 1051.7040 2461.100^ OnV ER"%Rr NT 2.SO4O 4.100!1 15.3000 7106000 91.3non 171.4100 PRIVATE T14E SHARING 501000 7000n0 16.20n0 16.1000 73.8no0 141.2nnn CDM%FRCIAL TIME SHARING NON-GnVERVMENT 6.60100 12.1000 29.6000 66.6000 131.1000 250.9100 GnVERNNFNT 160000 1.7000 3.3000 104000 14.6040 2T. 9001) TOTAL INTERACTIVE 060000 6105000 20201000 563.5000 1563.1000 1060.5000 PACKET SWITCHING 102000 5.1000 11.800o 22.2000 106.3006 466.6000 Ll'Id1.^6IL..IBi! e r r c e t 1)N 264 • $000 33665000 945.0000 2477.4000 $321.51300 11276.4000 por ELEtEFlY1L-lll' ^..A 1CATT0^ 1 RESTRICTE4 ACCESS NETWORKS AOMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE TRAFF NON-Gf10RNMENT 74.0000 '1904000 104.SOno 269.10n0 61005000 1304.60no GOVERNMFNT 601000 6.4000 20.2000 64.an00 6765000 160.E000 OPERATIONAL FACSIMILE 200000 1.1000 11.0000 41.3000 122.6000 330.7000 CONMUNIC ATING WORD PROCESSOR 1.4000 2.3noo 10.3000 77.10no 96.Sono 232.9DOO CDNVENIFNCF FACSIMILE N04-RnVF9414ENT 1006000 14.o(0A 32.8000 6101000 9303000 132.4000 GOVFRNMFNT 1.9000 2.5000 5.7000 100000 16.4nno 17.460!) 10I111OX SERVICES 1.3000 195000 10.6000 25.7000 56.60nn 126.2000 TOTAL RESTRICTED ACCESS 1309000 73.7000 195.1000 46906000 1063.2000 2525.7000 OPEN ACC E SS NETWDRKS TWX AND TELEX 0.0000 009000 1.2000 106000 2.400n 1.2000 MAILGRAM AND TELEGRAM 0.1000 O.lono 0.1000 0.1000 1.2000 2.1000 lis p $ FMS$ NnN-GT1VfaNMENT 24.9000 66.6000 69.3000 112.5000

O0VFRNMFNT 2.2700 6.6000 7.6$00 9.4000 TOTAL DPFN ACCESS 0.9000 100000 2a.6000 76.7000 100.7000 117.6n00 111A1.-E•UZ1S 0y.u.Uu 54.6000 14.7000 223.7000 566.5000 1163.9000 '.53.3000 1W-115/A_MICA T IONS INQUIRY/RESPONSF 2.2000 4.1000 196too0 61.1000 162.1000 431.9Dn0 DATA ENTRYIDATA T014NSFER NON-GOVFRNMENT 4.6000 702000 2k.600O SS6900n 10R.S2n0 197.2000 s0 RNMENT 0.0000 163000 4.1000 9.6000 16.7000 33.9000 ttl=S/tns 766000 1206000 46.1000 12606000 269.30no 663.0000 YL9t F ANE DUS-A PPt rc^yS SPEC 4L PUR P OSE FACSIMILE NON-GOVERNMENT 14.0000 15.6000 20.5000 29.3000 42.2000 63.3000 00VFRHMENT 407000 5.2000 609000 7.1000 4O.S00o 8.6noo SECURE VOICE 2.1000 660000 84.5020 65.6000 MONITORING SERVICES 0.1000 009000 IaTAI NI St1L'^Fy A t6.T000 20.6000 24.5000 4496000 ^l7./000 116.6non •43.9000 464.6000 1!45.0000 !215.1000 611.6000 1453303000

r s j i

BLRVTC'L DLMIWD A^iCi, eKT"1':' ••

Not Addressable satel3 to Market c-Sand Date category - sgaeted case cherry (megabits per second) i

1.7! t•4o 1985 love 199S 7000

NIGH SPFFD/HIDE BAND DATA TRANSFER NON-GOVERNMENI 7.4000 10.1000 30.7000 90."on0 219.5070 S/2.71nn GnVERNMFNT 6.6000 $.soon 2004000 31.2000 99.10on 171.5000 "ATCH PROCESSING NON-QOVERNMLNT 6.2000 10.5000 270"000 110000 121.9000 1919100" GOVERNMENT 0.8000 1#0100 2.6000 606000 11670170 17.5000 DATA ENTRY 1411H SPEEDI NON-GOVERNMENT 74.7700 7302000 920000 26905000 67290000 1640.3000 GOVERNMENT 3.2000 6.7n00 16.3000 003000 9a.6nn0 219.3000 TOTAL WIN SEED/WIDE BAND 32.9000 10.000n 189.6000 $33.1000 1223.1000 2196.5000 LOW SPEEn/MEDIUM SPEED DATA ENTRY 17.6000 22060110 4503000 6103000 147.8000 236.4000 Of"OTF Jnn ENTRY NON-GOVFnN4CNT $0.9000 66.0000 119.1000 324.7000 $9!.4000 102246000 GnVFRN4FVT 7.6900 4.1001 210000 43.1000 76.5000 126.0000 TOTAL LOW %PFF.O/MF,OIUM SPEED 76.1000 98.4000 215.4000 115.7000 81101000 1595.0000 INTFRACTIVE TnANSMISSION INQUIRY/RESPONSE NnN-GOVERNMENT 7700000 115.7000 13306000 121,9000 1020.1000 2193.1000 GOVERNMENT 2.400n 460000 1400000 36.1000 86.6000 166.3000 PRIVATF TIME SHARING 500000 608000 15.7000 3S060n0 71.6000 138.9000 COm MERCIAL TIME SHARING NON-GOVERNMENT 4. 6000 1 1.7000 711. TOnn 44.1,000 127. Rnnn 243.3700 GOVERNMENT O. 917n0 1. Soon 303nn 1.2"ton 14.2nno 7T.nnol TOTAL INTERACTIVE 3".9000 59.5000 IN6.0000 566.0000 11172.1001) 796/.6700 PACArT SWITCHINr1 3.1000 5.0000 11.4non 11.00 0 103.1nnn 457.6700 ULK -DAIA-LL "15 1 15110 171.00n0 212.9nno 612.47nn 1516.4000 3461.210^ 7564.10"113 ELEC11la1C - 9A1L_& PPL!rATI 121113 RFSTRICTED ACCESS NETWORKS AO4INISTR4TIVE MFASAGE TRAFF NnN-Gf1VERN4FNT 2§41000 38.2nnn 101.4')nn at 1.^R An 497.0000 126~,11101 GOVFRNMENT 6.50n0 8.6mol 19.011n 41.5031 04.Nnon 156."11 nPFRATInNAL FACSIMILE 0.2000 0.3000 1.1000 4.2000 12.S11O 33.A000 [DMMUNIGATI% WORn PROCESSOR 10000 203000 10.0000 36.0000 91.6nnn 226.00170 CRNVFNIFNCF FACSIMILE NON-GOVERNMENT 5.2000 6081Dn 15.9000 290900 45.2090 64.20011 GOVFRNMENT 01 ,4000 102000 2.6000 5.2000 1.9000 4. 77170 MAIL"Ox SCRVICFS 2.ZOMO 3.4000 10.3000 24.9000 54.9000 122.4000 TnTAI RESTRICTED ACCESS 44.4000 60.0000 161.1000 404.5000 891.0000 ILI78.0000 OPftl AGCFSS NETWORKS TWX ANn TELEX n•en00 0.9000 1.2000 1.600n 2.30"O 3.1000 MAILGRAM AND TELEGRAM 0.1000 061000 0.3000 001000 1.1000 2.0000 LISPS EMSS NnN-GOVERNMENT 295000 100000 9.1000 11.5000

G"VFRN MF NT 002000 0.6000 0.8000 f.Onno TOTA1 O^CN ACCESS 0.9000 1.000n 4.2000 9.9000 13.3000 .'v. b'00 IDUL_ELEtS3DDllL_ MA tt 65,3000 6106000 165.3000 414.4000 904.3000 1e96.400C EEIS .M/RIL1CAI1DOtS INQUIRY/RESPONSE 201000 400000 14.5000 5902000 15103000 419.0000 DATA FNT,",IS/DATA TRANSFER NON-GnVF)RNMENT 0.9000 1.5000 4.F000 11.4000 22.1 * An + 600"00 GnVERNMENT 00000 0.3n00 0.0000 2.0000 3.0000 6.9000 3.1000 501000 !4.1900 12.6000 183.2000 166.1000 "ELLAULMIS-AeeL ICATteas SPECIAL PURPOSE FACSIMILE i NON-GOVERNMENT 6.8000 7.6000 10.0000 14.2000 20.5"It 30.1000 GOVERNMENT 2.3000 2.5000 3.3000 306000 501000 4.20o" SECURE VOICE 290000 7.70oo 21.6000 63.0.000 MONITORING SERV1Ct:S 1 0.2000 IGLLJaSUS LA 6=...tt1• 9.1000 10.1000 15.3000 25.5000 49J000 9809000 i j^^ A^ uP^ tf^ r t^,ew^e 22106000 31006000 A 81761000 2084.9000 4602.9000 10926.1000 R

ICRVICr DEMAND ASSCSSK-!:T

Not Addressable satellite Market (Naltnce After Kateoval. of Traffic Nolov Terrestrial /6atollite Cost &operations)

Ku^6and Date Category - tapected Ca61 NVwary

(firabits per tear)

1976 1910 190 1990 19141 FOOD

O^ZA.Il2d3^1511Q1s. APPÎÂrtny^ NIGH SPFFO/WIDE HAND DATA TRANSFER NDh-GOVFPNMFNT 26.6000 31000no 11101000 22206000 97#,. 101n 2534.0nnn GOVERNMENT 25.1000 32.6000 75.1000 101.60n0 416.3400 0, 81b. 6ATCH PROCESSING NW-4OVERNMENT 26.9000 24..1000 $360000 16.4004 194.4040 410.6w GOVFPNMFNT 1.9000 > o no 5.0000 701000 1769000 3A.1000 DATA ENTRY IHIGM SPEEDI NON-GOVFRNMENT 3.700n 1'.0000 1509900 4005000 01.0W 266.1000 fnVEPNMFNt n.FOof) (.Donn 245000 6.5noo 14.2000 91.9000 Tn1 A L HIîN S P EED/WIDE &AND 01.7000 114.70on 26006000 634.1000 1106.9000 4342.9000 Lnw SPFFO/MEDIUM SPFED OA14 FNTR Y 17.7000 22.7000 4501000 95.9000 1470000 2)6+0000 RFMnTE Jn5 ENTRY NnN-PnVERNMFNT 9.6nan 12.ROnn 29.9000 67.3noo 133.6000 246.4000 GnVFRNwFNT l.5no0 1.90nn 4.2000 9.1000 17.2040 30.400w T11AL Lnw SPFFD/4EDIU4 SPEED 2000000 37.4000 19.2n00 162.3000 216.1000 515.6000 INTFPACTIV6 TRANSMISSION INQUIRY/RESPDNSE N(N-f f1VFRNM ENT 16.0000 26.0000 1604000 110.1000 366.0000 057.1000 GnvrRNwFNT I:R004 .2.9000 6.5000 14.0000 3).ToOC $4.6000 ►FIVATE TIME SHARING 5.o1nn 6 66000 15.60n0 35.0000 66.1090 12 9.1000 COMKFRCIAL TIME SHARING N04- Gnvf%N4FNT 6.6000 11.6000 2006000 63.3000 120.1000 216.1000 4nVFR4m v %T I.Onon 1.3004 2.2000 761000 13.3nin F4.00n0 TOTAL INTERACTIVE '17.4000 46.6000 132.3000 290.6000 629.804n 1266.11no ►ACKTT SwITCNING 2.20n0 1.4000 7.7000 14.9000 59.1000 235.4000 ihIAL_rSIA^6IÎS 5.1!11 190.1000 1046100n 47906000 1107.1000 1616.1non N1o.onon EIPLIP1yl,E_lL1L _APLL1L1I1Dd3 RFSTRICTFn ACCFSS NETWORKS An w iNISTRATIVE M FSSAGE TRAFF NON-GDVFRNMFNT 15.1000 20,400r) 37.600^ 56.7000 153.7On^ 179.3000 GnvEKNMF41 3.5000 4.6000 7.3000 4.4000 22.0000 46.7000 nPFRATIONNL FACSIMILE 0.3000 0.4nOn 3.0000 110600 61.1010 25?.9000 CO M MUNICATING WORD PROCESSno 1.2000 2.0000 10,6000 22.0000 46.5000 05.3no0 CONVFNIENCE FACSIMILE NON-GOVERNMENT 0.2000 0.300D O.Rn00 10000 3.4000 6.00DC GOVERNMENT 0.1000 003000 0.61)00 0.60no MAILROt SERVICES 2.10n0 3.2000 90000 23.3000 46.1000 96.5000 TOTAL RFSTPICTFD ACCESS 12.4000 10.9000 66.3000 131.1000 143.4000 669.5000 OPEN ACCFSS NFTWrWKS TWx ANn IELFX n.InOQ 0.1000 0.7noo 0.7000 0:3000 0.4001 MAIL614 0 4Nn TELFGRAM 0.1000 00000 0.1000 IIS P t FMt; NnN-Gt1Vf'? NM(N7 226.9000 606.90no 66-1.1nOn if4.9ON7

Wjvr'RNMENI 16.3000 570000 ST.990n 63.1000 TOTAL nPFN ACCFSS 0.1000 11.1000 15).5000 659.3004 72).TO4n 766.6000 IllAL_ELLLn DN.1L_SA1L 27.5400 11.0000 419.7000 190.4000 1061.1no0 1656.1000 Ef is- Jo5 / 6221.,1 1 AlunhU INOUIRY/RFSPOYS F 74,0000 3.1000 15.6000 47.7000 107.6noo 269.9000 DATA FNTRY/n:1A TRANSFER Nt1N-GOVFR ►4 14ENT 105000 2.41O0 6.4000 11.5000 46.40110 149.30no GnVFRNMF t-,'T 0.3000 0.4000 I. 0 0 2.0000 1.0000 (5.7000 I jIAL-FFIS / 2 05 1.1000 6.4000 21.1000 *%.2Dn0 162.2000 "4."00 NUCLLL A N F uL EE 1 AtteNc 2 CIAL PURPOSE► FACSIMILE ON-GOVERNMENT 5.2000 5.1000 11.5000 23.6000 43.6000 64.7000 jjOVFRNMFNT 1.7000 1.9000 3.9000 5.9000 ^10.9nn0 11.600^ SECURE VOICE 25.5000 •7.0000 141.6000 401.200." RDNITORINO SERVICES 0.1000 = eru tttc^i ^u 6.9000 1.7000 60.9000 96.5000 216.9000 49706000 i .^Fn^'1 i jj i ^ ue^ tc ► ttnNe 164.0000 16904000 963.5000 2045.1000 141141.1000 6900.6000

^ K r^F-Tj1

i9 stayicE DEMAND "SESSMElt? d Not Addressable N telitte market

iw-band Data Category - swdt" Cate I6!l11ry (6»gablt6 per fasaw) i 1416 1910 1965 1190 19+5 2100 '

^uL.Ila yS=13S10y "^^5:*?awi NIGH SPEED/WIDE BAND DATA TRANSFER R11N.PfWfRN0lENT $.Boca 709000 22.7000 6506000 161090no 92200100 GOVERNMFNT S62000 -60000 1503000 3701000 14.1n00 1/01,1000 6ATCN PRICESS14C UnN-GOVERNMENT 106000 7.0000 1066000 16.6000 1107000 65.4000 GOVERNMENT 005000 00000 1.0000 1.4000 106000 1.1000 DATA ENTRY (NIGH SPEED$ NON-GOVfRNMENT 106000 4.19000 :305000 $4.3000 12701000 376.5000 G(IVFR4MF4T no "I no 1.0l0on 2.4000 6.3000 16960no 900000 TATAI "Ir.4 SPFEn/w1DE f16NO 21.3000 26.2000 65.7000 165.90oo 463.2000 1227.1000 LOW SPFF01 14F,nIUM S ► FED OA11 ENTRY 17.1not) 22.On0n 4307600 a3. )ono 142.9noo 23106000 RtMnIF JnA FNTRY NnN-GDVFRNMFNT 905000 ;4.60n" 29.0000 65.3000 179.6()00 299.0000 GRVFQNMrNT 104000 1.0111 401000 6.0000 16.Tnnn 79.4000 Tn1Al Lnw t P ffn/MEn1UM SPEED 211.6000 36.7000 16.1000 197.4000 219.2000 900.0000 INTr*ACTIVf TRANSMISSION (N?UIaRYIRESPO4SE N(*- 1/ nVFRNMFNI 1995000 25.2000 74.1000 16541000 316.3000 131.6000 GnVFR4MENT 107000 206000 6.7n00 14.4o00 32.1"On $7.11n(10 PRIVATE TINE SNARING 4.90n0 6.6000 19.7000 340nn00 66.4100 125.2nno CDM MFRCIAL TIME SNARING NCN-GnVERNMENT 6.4000 11.4000 2707000 6t.6000 116.9001 109.6000 GnVfRNWfNT 0.9000 103000 3.1000 6.QODO 12.1010 213.1000 TOTAL INTFRACTIVF 11.40nn 47.3000 121.3000 262.00no 605.0100 t147.9n00 PACKET SWITCHING 2.100(1 1.3000 1.4000 11.9000 ST.S000 116.3000 I.aal_91zLIS ry c M tc t I nv 62.6000 LLS.0000 216.3000 416.6000 1414.9000 3196.7000 Elf.'.^.tSll.-'^i1L APPLIfAYlONt RESTRICTED ACCFSS NETWORKS ADM INISTRATIVE MESSAGE TRAFF NnN-GOVERNMENT 14.6000 19.1000 3607000 SS.0000 14901000 367.1000 GOVERNMENT 304000 4.5700 7.1000 962000 21.6000 45.3000 OPERATIONAL FACSIMILE 0.3000 1.6000 7000017 2501000 COMMUNICATING WORD PROCESSOR 102000 700000 704000 21.3000 ♦5.1010 67.60"0 GONVENIFNCE FACSIMILE NPN-GnVERNMENT 14,1000 0.1000 0.4000 0.6000 1.6000 :.9000 GOVEPNMF4T 0.1000 001000 0.3000 0.4000 MAILAOY SERVICFS 200000 361000 9.3000 2246000 46.6000 99.5000 TOTAL PFtTRICTED ACCESS 2103000 29.,4000 61.5000 110.6000 2T1.1000 620.6000 OP EN ACCFSS NETWORKS TWx AND TELFX 0.000 001000 0.2000 0.2000 0.3noo 0.4000 MA(1M,0.39 AND TELEGRAM 041000 0.1000 0.3000 ASPS EMSS NON-GOVERNMENT 3301000 6106000 67.9000 73.9000

GOVFRNMENT 20 4000 5.4000 9.9000 644000 TOTAL O P FN ACCFSS 001000 0.1000 3642000 67.50n0 14.2000 61.0000 j n At .U.LjjDNIr MllL 21.4000 24. 6000 910000 174.3000 345.1000 701.6000 tfli_.1lS /!2.".^1tl.L1DClS INQUIRY/RESPONSE 200000 3.7000 15.11000 41.5000 10404000 26106000 DATA ENTRY/DATA TRANSFER . NON-GOVERNMENT 003000 005000 •103000 2.4000 9.5006 30.4000 GOVERNM NT 0.1000 0.1000 0.2000 064000 106000 5.2000 I.C7JL. F EIS CCS 204000 4.3000 1647000 44.3000 lts6Soo0 291.4000 ILUXLEUINN SPECIAL PURPOSE FACSIMILE NON-GOVERNMENT 1.,1000 2.6000 5066+10 11.9000 21.20001 41.1000 GOVERNMENT 066000 009000 189000 2090011 S03600 5.6000 SECURE VOICE 2401000 61.0000 166.60110 369.1000 MMIITORING SERVICES 1 =MT t fait t 11MRf1 K 303000 301000 3202000 "44000 191.10" 435.6000 109.9000 15206000 42449000 . 92008000 1066.1000 "1309000

I BERVICE DCMP.ND ASSESBMLNT

Net Addressable 6ateilits Market (balance Alter Ramoval of Traffic below Vorrestrial/batellite Croat Separations)

16/10 ONa - scenario 2 Seta Category - btpected Cara /nmary

("rabite per tear)

' 19TO 1910 1905 1990 1995 FOOD

OLL.It15151'1SS1LY^! ' P3_ tCA 7 ewe NIGH S P EED/WIDE BAND DATA TRANSFER NON-GnVCRNMFNT 2!0,2000 34.5000 "00000 28198000 027,5000 Z7R4,6noo GRV1r 0N4FNT ??•Soon 290nn0 "09000 162.2000 37101000 ?91.5000 BATCH ►RnCESSING NnN-GOVERNMENT 25•;000 S2.70on S2050no 77.9000 ?040700n 494,?nOn GnVFRNMFNT 2.4000 I.Innn 4.9000 102000 1609000 4).6000 DATA ENTRY 141AN 1PEEDI p nt#-GnVFnVMfNT I,'1000 4450nn 1204000 $6.2000 11703006 54R.)oon GOVERNMENT 067000 0.9000 2.2000 5.6000 17.2000 46.4000 TOTAL HIGH SPEED/WIDE BAND 1902000 104.1,000 231.9000 $11.1000 1S54.2DOC 1914.3000 1041 SPffn/MQDIUM SPEED DATA ENT'"" 111.1000 11.6non 15,200n 67.9000 115.4000 )01\.5000 REMnTf Jnn ENTRY NnN-GnV P RNMFNT 106000 9.90n0 2),2000 57.4000 104.1000 142.7000 GnrERNMFNT 1.Innn 1.30On 1.1Dno 7.1000 1304000 7307nnn TnTAt lnW SPEfn/4F0ItM SPEED ?7.40n0 79.00n0 61,Tonn I?6.SDn0 71304000 404.4000 INTT a AfTIVf TQAN50(ItS10N INQUIRY/PrSPnN%r NnN-r,nvrRNM FNT 6.5000 1100000 11,0000 67.3000 11199000 416.7000 GnVFRNMENT n.9000 104000 3.7000 5.9000 14.0000 79.0000 PRIVATE TIME SNARING 3.6000 S.ocon 11.6006 76.4000 57.5006 100.0+300 Cr3MMERCIAL TINE SNARING Nn*4-GnvF9NMENT 5.3000 1.2000 17.6000 34.3000 14.5000 1)4.6000 GUVFRNMFNT 0.6000 008001) 2.0000 4.4000 9.3100 14.9000 TOTAL INTCRACTIVE 18.9000 21.200n 61.9000 141.3000 112p..10n0 645.7000 PAKKFT SVITGHIN, 1.5000 2.9000 5.5000 10.3100 42.9000 171.0000 L.aAL.0/,lE..I1J11 c11t m t22.00n0 Ie1v4000 3111.0000 997.5000 2157.6000 5244.4900 9AIC1ItM1C-SILL- ♦tt:L lulIONS RESTRICTED ACCESS NFTWORKS AD M INISTRATIVE MESSAGE TRAFF NON-COVERNMENT 12.5000 17.1000 32.8000 90.7000 141.4nn0 15A.29nn GDVFRN4FNT 2.9000 3.9000 6.4000 0.4000 20.3010 x46.1000 OPERATIONAL FACSI M ILE 043000 0.4000 2.0000 16.8000 65.5000 131.6000 COMMUNICATING WORD PROCESSOR 1.1000 1.9000 7.4000 21.4000 45.9000 65.3000 CONVENIFNCE FACSIMILE NnN-r,DVERNMtr 0.2000 O.Ionr^ 0.6000 (.1000 3.4000 6.0000 cnVE^WMENT 0.1000 0.7000 0.6noo 0.otnnn 14AILROX SERVICES 1.9000 2.9000 8.8000 2104000 44.5000 91.0000 TOTAL RESTRICTED ACCESS 16.9000 26.5000 19.10oo 120.1000 321.9000 527.0000 OPEN ACCESS NETWORKS TWX AND TELEX 0.1000 0.1000 0.100n 0.7000 0.3000 0.4000 MAILGRAM AND TELEGRAM 0.1000 O.IOno 00000 LISPS PMSS NON-GOVER4MENT 111.3000 091.4000 656.1000 124.8000

GOVERNMFNT 17.1000 S1.3000 57.1000 63.1000 TOTAL DP v N ACCESS 0.1000 0.1000 316.5000 641.0000 711k.6000 785.6000 1Ju"LECm k,1r "ALL 19.0000 26.6000 997.6000 161.7000 1035.5000 1615.6000 ILIS -JSS 11P2L 1r1T1etic INQUIRY/RESPONSE 101000 1.9000 6.8000 16.9000 41.1000 111.2000 DATA EMTPY/DATA TRANSFER NON-GOVERNNFNT 1.2000 1.9000 5.3000• 9.9090 18.1000 124.4000 GOVERNMENT x.2000 0.3000 0.9000 106000 6.7000 71.4000 MAL-" 31!05 2+1000 4.1000 13.0000 26.0000 91.1000 277.0000 SLA L AN o i1S APP) ICI Tinwe SPECIAL PURPOSE FACSIMILE 0104-GOVEA "ENT 4.4000 4.1000 9.1000 19.9000 36.7000 71.3000 GOVERNMENT 1.5000 1.6000 1.2000 5.0000 4.7000 9.7000 SECURE VOICE 22.6000 99.6000 152.7000 IS6.6000 WM ITORING SERVICES 0.1000 * ^mo.t =^ Lbf.GliS 5:9000 605000 3).!000 $4.9000 19606000 437.7000 = et Ai u uP^ ^eAT mwe 14944000 200.4,000 91901000 1711 1000 9406.8000 7915.1000

StAVICr OtNAND Aa112111 ITT

Not Addressable latellits Market

19/30 OMs - 80eaar10 2 Qt" Qatpasy - upestad can mu" (9megablts per as00Md)

' t^79 9994 1995 I^^o 19^s t000^

OA%A_Z.1 bU1S11V'd APlt M& yew: NIGH SPEED/WIDE •ANO DATA TRANSFER 16909000MOM-IiWANMENT 9.1000 700000 8062000 $9.7000 46161000 GOYFPN46NT 4.4000 96 9000 13.6000 13.1000 7602000 16 10 9000 LATCH PROCESSING AON-OOVFRMMENT 001000 607000 1007000 1901000 4109000 1261000 005000 006000 9.5000 GOVFRNMENT 100000 ► 65000 306000 DATA ENTRY (NIGH SPII01 NON-GOVERNMENT 1162000 401000 1200000 1501000 11309000 737.9000 GIIVERNOENT 0.7000 009000 2.1000 106000 1607000 4.02000 TOTAL. HIGH SPfEOIWIDE NANO 1902000 8504000 1906000 14909000 421.1000 111104000 LOW SPFED/MEDIUM SPEED DATA ENTRY 11.3000 11.1000 1401000 65.3000 11264000 19207000 PEMOTE JOB ENTRY NON-GOVERNMENT 7.4000 966000 22.5000 !009000 100.9000 ' 116.9000 COVERVOFNT 161000 164400 1.2000 1.R000 11.0000 1160000 TOTAL LOW SPEED/MEDIUM SPEED 8109000 1961000 9909000 122,0 9000 28661000 392.4000 INTERACTIVE TRANSMISSION /NOUTRY/RFSPONSE NON-GOVERNMENT 962000 1204000 1200000 6503000 /666 10 00 40402000 GMVFRNOENT 0.4000 1.4000 3*5000 S.7000 14,5000 2961000 PRIVATE TIME SHARING 3,3000 4.9000 31*3000 2S,booO 1009000 77.0000 COMMPRCIAL 114E SHARING •-T NON-GOVERNMENT 5 0 1000 760000 1101000 38.1000 1203000 11005000 GMVFRNOFNT 0.6000 049000 109000 401000 100000 14.5000 TOTAL INTERACTIVE 19.1000 8664000 6`169000 13900000 11204000 6740000 PACKET SWITCHING 165000 204000 5.4000 1000000 46107000 16S. 9000 1001*5000La61.=16_1 aSM 1 SS ION 60.9000 42.1000 19006000 42109000 2344.0000 ElELIMIL - SAL_LULI CATIn 15 RESTRICTFD ACCESS NETWORKS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGF TRAM'•" NON-GOVFRM0ffNT 12.10')0 16.6000 31.9000 4901000 137.1000 341.5000 GOVERNMENT 164000 3.9000 602000 R02000 11.7000 41.6000 667000OPERATIONAL FACSIMILE 0.3000 1.1000 24.4000 COMMUNICATING WORD PROCESSOR 101000 1.9000 761000 2001000 4405000 12.,000 CONVENIFNCE FACSIMILE NMN-GOVERNMENT 001000 061000 004000 0.1000 1.6000 2.9000 0.3000cnV7RNMFNT 0.1000 9.1000 0.4000 MAILBOX SERVICES 149000 209000 4*6000 20.8000 47.4000 9062000 TOTAL RESTRICTED ACCESS 17.9000 2502000 54.6000 101.SOOD 25303000 971.0000 OPEN ACCESS NETWORKS TWX AND TELEX 0010010 O.1o00 061000 002000 003000 0.4000 MAILGRAM AND TELEGRAM 0.1000 001000 003000 US pt FOSS NON-GOVERNMENT 11.9000 60.1000 "04000 13.4000 GOVFRNNsNT 2,6000 501000 9011460 6041100 ?isTOTAL O P FN ACCESS loft001000 0.1000 34.7000 65.6000 41.01" IILI -ULLIA MMIC MAIL 1/.0000 25.3000 09.3000 16701000 32604000 67260000 ELLS_ .0/iPtL1LYZ1D015 INQUIRY/RFSPONSE 100000 1.9000 6.6000 1604000 46o2080 t7702000 DATA ENTRY/DATA TRANSFER kON_GOVFRNOENT 007do0 0.4000 101000 1.9600 1.9000 2564000 yI1VERNMfMT 001000 002000 003000 104000 4.1000 L1^LEIS/GCS 1.3000 203000 7.1000 19.6000 950s000 19 700000 suscfLUClaDUS^teLlrs.Ilnbs SPECIAL PUR P OSE FACSIMILE {r NOM-GOVERNMENT 201000 204000 407000 906000 1700000 34.6000 OOVIRNNENT 061000 069000 1.6000 264000 409000 4.1000 SECURE VOICE 8200000 9760000 149.10000 949.9000 MONITORING SERVICES I n i wee Ausnue 2.9000 3.2000 2903000 69.9000 170.6000 JN502000 =nai ^^ sPr^ ^e^r^Mwe 9209000 11301000 31601000 6TT.1000 15530/000 156002000

ORIGINAL PAGE IS OF 'PWR QUALITY IMMrCC DEMAND ANSESIMEIrr I Net Addreuablo satellite Market 16/30 oNg - Ocenar10 3 Date Category - GAlpe cted Case 8t ry

foegabit/ per "a"d)

1910 1980 1985 1990 • 1995 2000

ndse_zaeas^^s sip5l..AtElstAIS001s HIGH SPEED/W10F RAND DATA 7AANSFER "NON-GOYFRN 11ENT 10.1000 13011000 39•3000 ll).SOon 1010 011 1) IInO.Anno GOV F ANMFNT 900000 1106000 260600n 6400090 130.6010 210.700n MATCH PRnCESSING NON-GOVE^N4ENT 1006000 13.0000 2601000 10.2000 104.8000 X201.5000 GnVERNMENT 1.0000 103000 2_0_4000 4.6000 946000 1804000 DATA ENTRY IHCGH SPEED) NnN-G0VERNMENT 11.6000 11.5000 49.7000 14104000 316030DO 973.6000 ' GnVERNMFNT 2.90Dn 3.1000 4.0000 22.7000 55.1000 1$0.7000 TOTAL HIGH S P EED/WIDE NAND 41.2000 62.7000 152.9000 396.4000 991.4000 2412.8000 lnW SPEFD/MFnIU M SPEED 'nAtA ENTRY IS-5000 2o.00no 4003000 77.9000 13169000 209.9000 AfMnTF. JOR ENTRY NON-GnVFANMENT P607000 14.6000 74.8000 157.4000 2 90.60Rn 505.90(0 GnVCRNM F NT 4.0000 5.1000 10.6000 21.2oDn 3705000 62.9000 TOTAL Lnw SPEED/MEDIUM SPEED 4662000 59.TODD 125.1000 296.9000 459.6000 , 178.1000 INTf4ACTIVF TRANSMISSION INDUIRY/RESPONSE NnN-rinVFRNMENT 11.0000 16.7000 41.9000 121.4000 31144000 770.5000 GOVFRNMENT 102000 1.9000 5.4000 10.6000 2102000 53.5000 PRIVATE TIME SHARING 4.1000 5.60,10 19.3000 30.5000 60.5000 /15.20nn COMMF,RCIAL TIME SHARING NnN-GOVERNMENT 6.0000 062000 2001000 43.4000 /6.700( 156.0000 GOVERNMENT D.7o00 0.9000 2.3000 S.1000 906010 11.6900 TOTAL INTFRACTIVE 21.0000 33.3000 9000000 213.0000 497.4000 1114.0n00 PACKET SWITCHING 2.1000 3.90no 1.5000 14.0000 6101000 292.30n0 11Lel-DA A-12AVRMICeInN 110.SOn0 169.00n0 37601001) 119.9000 201601000 49980000 EIELL.fttffiL3y All_eEELILALl01iS , RESTRICTED ACCESS NFTWORKS AO M INISTRATIVE MESSAGE TRAFF NON-GOVERNMENT 19.6000 26.9000 63.00on 13104000 337.50n(l 7T7.Oon0 GnVFPtJNFNT 4.6000 6.100n 12.200n 22.9000 40.4000 95.8000 OPERATInNAL FACSIMILE 0.1000 0.2000 0.8n00 ).soon 13.3nnn 45.0non Cn"UNICATING WORD PROCESSOR 1.3000 2.2000 9.001)0 29.4nnn 69.Innn 147.3000 CnNVFNI F NCE FACSIMILE NnN-GnVFRNMFNT 0.3000 0.Snnn I.bono. 3.6noo 6.soon 10.6n00 Gf14FRNMFNT C.1000 O.Ionn 0.39no n. ► nno I.Innn 1.4nnn MA ItMnY SERVICES 2.1oon 1.3nnn In.lonn ?4.7nnn 52.snnn lll.^Ann TOTAL PISTRIfTEn ACC14S »01000 39.30"0 91.0noo 222.4000 52H.4nn0 II0Q.4000 OPFN ACCESS NFTWOAKS TWK ANn TELFX 065000 0.5n00 0.6000 0.11000 I.Innn 1.41nn M11Lr,RA M AND TELEGRAM 0.1000 0. 1000 0.1000 o.3onn n.s" 1 n.9onn USPS FMSS NON-GOVERNMENT 46.500C 80.4000 9P.400n ImA.Rnno

GnVFANMENT 4.0000 7.7000 /.tinno 9.Sonn TnTAI np EN ACCESS 0.6000 0.6non 51.2000 97.?ono IDo.6nnn 120.6000 JILAL_ LLEURLIUlL.'JA I L 21 . 1000 39.9000 148.2000 X119.6000 637.0nnn 1310.0000 a LIS _ Jt5 /122 Ll L AI1t1115 INOUIRY/PES ► ONSE 102000 2.1000 101000 ?..0000 67.5000 114.1000 DATA ENTRY/DATA TRANSFER NON-GnVERNMENT 0.5000 0.0000 2.7000 6.1000 17.4000 46.7non GOVFANMFNT 0.1000 0.1000 0.5000 1+1000 l.Onoo 6.0000 XUAL-EFI5 120S 1.8000 3.0000 11.3000 29.2000 112 . 9000 226.0000 1XISLELLANLQU U. ^ SPECIAL PURPOSE FACSIMILE NnN-5nVERN4ENT 5.3000 5.9000 9.9000 17.9000 31.00n0 96.90n0 GOVERNMENT 1.4000 2.0000 3.3000 4.5000 17.7000 1.8000 SECURE VOICE 32.I0On 0409000 211.9000 104.1000 NnNITORING SERVICES 0.1000 6.1 ZIILAL.HI SC ^F ^ ► p ^.^LX ^ 7.1000 7.9000 45.3000 107.3000 25606000 973.9090 IAL2 196.1000 20908000 38069000 133600000 2992.6000 6710.1000

'i SERVICE DEMAND ASSESSMENT d Not Addressable satellite Market ,(Balance After Rnnoval of Traffic below ' mrostrial/satellite Coat Separation$)

' I41/30 ON; - Scenario 3 Data Cate"ry - upeated Case 8mvary • Phrabits per Year)

1+7/ It10 1985 t990 1945 2000

O^LA.IlIySrlSS1nN _• _Rri i r^:l^teel• 1416H SPEED/WIDE DANO OAIA TRANSFEP NON-GOVERNMFNT 49.6000 0.5000 192.8000 SS6.3000 1504~4000 396407000 PnVFRNMENT 444000 97.00n0 17003000 31106000 61906000 111400000 SATCH PROCESSING N04-GUVERNMENT 51.Bnoo 67.5000 1200 1000 246.0000 51369000 907980no GOVERNMENT 469000 604000 17900Dn 22.6000 4703000 90.7000 DAT4 ENTRY IHICN SPEEDI NON-GOVERNMENT 1401000 190100n $161000 145.1000 367.9000 1001,7040 GOVERNMENT 300000 309000 9.1000 23.4000 5604040 13462000 TOTAL MT rlH S P EEO/WIOE BAND 1 7.6000 2210000 $2306000 1301.8000 319003000 755401000 LOW SPCED/MEDIUM SPEED DATA ENTRY 1600000 2006000 4106000 50.3000 135060n0 216.4000 REMnTE JOD ENTRY NnN-GOVERN4ENT 27.5000 3507000 1761000 162.3000 29966000 521.5no0 GOVF$NME4T 4.1000 S63noo 1009000 21.+000 38.6000 6402000 TITTAL LnW %DECD/MEDIUM SPEED 4706000 6106POO 129.6000 264.5000 47308047 •02.1000 INTERACTIVE TRANSMISSION INQUIRY/RFSPONSE NON-IOVERNMENT 11'.4ODD 1.7.2000 SQs!4000 125.1009 223.1000 T94. S000 GOVERNMENT 103000 1.9000 5.6000 10.9000 28.0000 55020on PAIV4TF TIME SHARING 4.!000 5.24000 11.7000 31.5000 6204000 118.6000 C"4ERCIAL TLME SNARING NON-GOVERNMENT 602000 6.5000 2068000 46.9000 85.4000 P,62.9000 COYFRNMENT O.TOoO 0.9000 2.3000 502000 9.9000 18.1000 TOTAL INTERACTIVE 23.9000 34.3000 92.1000 21906000 51268000 1149.1000 PACKET SWITCHING 201000 3.4000 101000 14.4000 690090 301.3000 I1L 1 _DiId -IL"S4Itm4N 241.2000 32100000 7'33.7000 1806 . 3000 4246.7090 9807.4nno El1CIUNIL-lA1L_ ADEL JL1 1W RFSTRICTED ACCESS NFTWnRKS ADMINISTRATIVF MESSAGE TRAFF NON-GOVERNMFNT 20.2000 270000 640000 141.7000 347.900D Bol.80nn GMVE• RNMFNT 4.7000 6.3400 12.6000 23.6000 44.9000 98.8000 OPFRATIDNAL FACSIMILE 1.1000 1.10DO 7.9000 37.6000 130.8000 440.8000 CIIMMUNICATING WORD PROCESSOR 1.3000 2.3000 4.3000 30.4000 71.2000 151.9000 CONVFNIFNCF FACSIMILE Nn%-GOVERNM ENT 0.7000 101000 303000 7.4000 t3.3000 21.6000 GOVERNMENT 001000 062000 0.6000 1.3000 2.30nn 3.0000 MAILBOX SFRVICES 2.2000 3.4000 10.4000 2505000 54.2000 114.9000 TOTAL RESTRICTED ACCESS 3003000 4201000 109.0000 267.5000 669.6090 16,33.0000 OP EN RCCESS NETWORKS TWx AND TELEX 0.5000 1T65000 0.6000 000000 101000 1.5000 MAILGRAM AND TELEGRAM 0.1000 0.1000 0.1000 063000 066000 1.0000 LISPS FM55 NnN-nnVrNNMENT 4860000 466.6000 96'1.100() (00,661004

GUVTRN4 P 4T 39.1000 75.4000 040nnnn 97.9nnn T m AL nPFN ACCFSS 066000 0.6nnn 496.100n 943.1090 1050.R910 I It, 2.1nor) 1I16L-ELE;IEUN i c MAIL 10 . 9000 43.3000 60501000 1210.6000 1720,409n 2T95.10DO EESS_jM/"P L1CA T InNc h INQUIRY/RESPONSE 1.3000 2.2000 4.4000 2207600 64.4000 119.5000 V DATA FNTPY/DATA TRANSFER I NDN-GOVFRNMENT 2.6000 4.1000 13.2000 50.1000 85.110nn 27808000 GOVFRNMFNT 0.5000 0.7000 2.3000 5.2000 14.7000 1994000 rF ZSf ^^ u/CO5 404000 1.0000 13.9000 58.0000 144.4000 441.7000 AUULL"ZOUS_APPLTcAT Inpa SPECIAL PURPOSE FACSIMILE NON-GOVERNMENT 10.9000 12.2000 20.3000 31.0000 1 63.0000 111.4000 GOVERNMENT 5.7000 401000 6.8000 9.30on 15090no 16.0on0 SECURE VOICE 33.1000 41.6000 274.6000 514.6000 MONITORING SIRVICES 0.1n0o 0.4000 Z -..^^ -L f .L..F ' P: M R 14.6000 16.3000 60.2000 113.9000 I 304.400t) 65e.6nnn i r.• iyJjt ê• ê#ê 291.1000 347.6000 1442.9000 3208n5one 6435.9000 13708.4000

•.,"RN!INAL, 1 9, E OF !^