Hurricane Matthew

eVENT Hurricane Tracking Advisory

Hurricane Matthew Information from NHC Advisory 36, 11:00 PM EDT Thu October 6, 2016 On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will be moving near or over the east coast of the Florida peninsula through Friday night, and near or over the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A gradual weakening is forecast but Matthew is expected to be a category 3 or stronger hurricane as it moves near the coast of Florida.

Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. Landfall (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 130 mph Position Relative to 125 miles SE of Cape Canaveral Speed: (category 4) Land: Florida Est. Time & Region: n/a Min Central Pressure: 939 mb Coordinates: 27.1 N, 79.2 W

Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained 185 miles Bearing/Speed: NW or 325 Degrees at 13 mph n/a Winds Extent: Wind Speed:

Forecast Summary ■ Hurricane conditions should diminish over portions of the northwestern Bahamas tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane warning area in Florida during the next several hours and will spread northward within the warning area through Friday. Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward in the warning area along the Florida east coast tonight and Friday. Hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward in the warning area in Georgia and South Carolina Friday night and Saturday with tropical storm conditions expected on Friday. Winds increase rapidly in elevation in a tropical cyclone. Residents in high-rise buildings should be aware that the winds at the top of a 30-story building will be, on average, about one Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area in the Carolinas on Friday night and Saturday. ■ The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the following amounts above normal tide levels: 10 to 15 feet on the northwestern Bahamas. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide: 7 to 11 feet from the Sebastian Inlet, Florida, to Edisto Beach, South Carolina, including portions of the St. Johns River; 4 to 6 feet on Edisto Beach to South Santee River, South Carolina; 4 to 6 feet from Boca Raton to Sebastian Inlet, Florida; 2 to 4 feet from South Santee River, South Carolina, to Cape Fear, North Carolina; and 1 to 3 feet from Virginia Key to Boca Raton, Florida. ■ Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in the following areas: 8 to 12 inches with isolated amounts of 15 inches on the northern Bahamas, 6 to 12 inches with isolated totals near 15 inches on the Atlantic coast of the United States from central Florida to eastern North Carolina. Forecast Track for Hurricane Matthew Forecast Wind-field for Hurricane Matthew

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Coastal Watches and Warnings A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island; the central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San Salvador, and Cat Island; the northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands,

Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence; north of Golden Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, and Lake Okeechobee. A Hurricane Watch is in effect north of Altamaha Sound to South Santee River South Carolina. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Chokoloskee to Golden Beach, the Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward, and Florida Bay. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect north of Chokoloskee to Suwannee River.

Strom Surge Potential Probability of Surge exceeding 3 feet Probability of Surge exceeding 5 feet

The images at right shows the NHC’s probabilities for a storm surge exceeding 3 feet at left and exceeding 5 feet at right, for the 77 hours 05 PM EDT Thu Oct 06 to 10 PM EDT Sun Oct 09. Probabilities for a surge exceeding 3 feet are highest (90% - 100%) along the coast from near Orlando to north of the Georgia South Carolina border.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

There is a danger of life- threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida east coast, the Georgia coast, and the South Carolina coast from Boca Raton, Florida, to South Santee River, South Carolina. There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours from north of South Santee River, South Carolina, to Cape Fear, North Carolina.

New Tropical Cyclone Potential and Tropical Storm Nicole Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. Tropical Storm Nicole NHC Advisory 12 at 11:00 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 Category 2 Nicole is currently stationary but is expected to drift generally The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane southward on Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have Matthew, located near the Bahamas, and on Hurricane Nicole, located increased to near 105 mph with higher gusts. Some weakening is likely to a few hundred miles south of Bermuda. begin on Friday with Nicole. Nicole is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane- force winds extend outward up to 15 miles from the center and tropical-storm- force winds extend outward up to 90 miles. Swells associated with Nicole, along with rough surf conditions, will affect Bermuda for the next few days.

National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook on October 6, 2016