“Evaluation of the 2011 Kosovo Population Census” American University in Kosovo “Evaluation of the 2011 Kosovo Population Census” Mentor Candidate Brian Bowen, PhD Shpend Thaqi 20 March 2013 Page 1 of 88 “Evaluation of the 2011 Kosovo Population Census” Table of Contents Acknowledgments…………………………………………………………………………4 Executive Summary ............................................................................................................ 5 CHAPTER 1 - Introduction ................................................................................................ 8 CHAPTER 2 - Methodology ............................................. Error! Bookmark not defined. CHAPTER 3 - Census History ......................................................................................... 19 CHAPTER 4 - Role and importance of the Census .......................................................... 23 4.1. Importance of the census ..................................................................................... 23 4.2. Conference of European Statisticians for member states of CES ................... 24 4.3. Demand for census in Kosovo ............................................................................. 34 CHAPTER 5- Legal aspect of the census in Kosovo and organization structure ............ 37 5.1 Census law, households and dwellings ................................................................ 37 5.2 Legal aspect until the determination of the census date, households and dwelling ........................................................................................................................ 37 5.3 Organization Structure and responsibilities for census .................................... 39 5.3.1 Personnel, organization and supervision of the process ................................. 40 CHAPTER 6 - Steps and preparations toward the census 2011 ....................................... 42 6.1 Census Test ............................................................................................................ 44 6.2. Preparation of main documents ......................................................................... 45 6.3 Campaign and Media campaign ......................................................................... 62 6.4 Codification,processing, analysis, tabling, delivering data…………………….59 CHAPTER 7 – Completion of the Population Census (the field- data collection) .......... 61 7.1 Preliminary Results .............................................................................................. 61 7.2 Completion of the 2011 census ............................................................................. 61 7.3 Announcement of the Census results 2011 ......................................................... 62 7.4 Participation of the Serbian community in the census in 2011……………….65 Page 2 of 88 “Evaluation of the 2011 Kosovo Population Census” CHAPTER 8 - Evaluation of the project and data comparison with other registration and statistical facts ................................................................................................................... 66 CHAPTER 9 – Process evaluation of the population registration .................................... 69 9.1 Focus on municipality - Questionnaire after the registration....……...….….70 9.2 Case study in the Municipality of Prishtina………………………………….73 9.3 Increase and reduction of population number in the Municipality of Prishtina according to certain period and administrative territorial changes……..80 CHAPTER 10 - Discussion………………………...……………………………………85 References ................................................................................................................. 877 Page 3 of 88 “Evaluation of the 2011 Kosovo Population Census” ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I am deeply indebted to Dr. Brian Bowen. I would like to express my gratitude to my Mentor, for the useful comments, good advice, remarks, guidance, encouragement, and engagement through the learning process of this master thesis. This thesis is a much better work, thanks to his supervision. Special thanks to Dr. Rifat Blaku for graciously lending his time and expertise in content, analysis and critical theory. I would also like to thank Mr. Agim Zuzaku for agreeing to be on my thesis committee despite his extremely busy schedule. My thanks must also go to Mr. Sabri Zabergja, who, in spite of having practically no spare time, still managed to find time to provide help and advice. It would have been very hard for one to find a more energetic and enthusiastic committee. I am truly grateful for the opportunity to have had such a dynamic and capable thesis committee. I would like to thank my loved ones, who have supported me throughout entire process, both by keeping me harmonious and helping me putting pieces together. I will be grateful forever for your love. I would like to thank the participants in my survey, who have willingly shared their precious time during the process of interviewing. I would like to express my deepest appreciation to all my friends who provided me the possibility to complete the survey. Last but not least, I would like to thank my family; my wife Hana, my mother Ilmije, my father Nazmi and my brother Dren. Each of you have share in this accomplishment. Without your support it would not have been possible. Page 4 of 88 “Evaluation of the 2011 Kosovo Population Census” Executive Summary Registration as a statistical operation, reveals the real situation of the population in a certain time and serves as a base to conduct further demographic assessments by using the data on natural increment and migration balance1. A Census is real picture of the territory of a country expressing the real situation over everything that deals with numbers and statistics of a country. In 2011, from the date 1-30th of April, Kosovo realized its first census, family economies and dwellings after 20 years. After the independence of Republic of Kosovo in 2008, the census was considered to have been the most important event and the most serious project of Kosovo institutions toward international obligations. The Kosovo Census has been a long journey toward its realization. Preparations for this registration started in 2003 and ended in year 2011. After the realization of the population census, many debates were initiated regarding its success and if the process had failed in different cities of Kosovo. The most contested issue was the case with Municipality of Prishtina, where the number of registered inhabitants was lower than expected, and as a result, it was questioned by the expert expectations for demography. The term “Resident” was also discussed often together with the issue for the North Mitrovica and other places populated by the Serb community. Before three decades, Kosovo, has realized the first population census and census of households, on April 2011. The registration provided valuable statistical information for the population and welfare condition, information that lead the policy planning’s during the following decade. From the year 2005, registration activities were monitored continuously from an International Monitoring Operation (IMO), consisting of European Union (EUROSTAT), European Council, UNECE and UNSD and known international experts for registration. The IMO objective was to ensure that the registration is in accordance with the 1 “Demographic Changes of the Population in Kosovo for the period 1948 – 2006”, Statistical office in Kosovo (SOK), February 2008, Prishtina Page 5 of 88 “Evaluation of the 2011 Kosovo Population Census” international recommendations of registration approved by the United Nation and this objective was fulfilled correctly.. In October 2010, IMO has assessed the registration activities to make them in consistence with the international recommendations and approved the goal of authorities to conduct registration from 1-15 April 2011.IMO had the chance to monitor closely the data collection process in order to supervise the international standards for data protection and their confidentiality. The general assessment of IMO was that the registration was implemented in a satisfied level and that it fulfils all the transparent professional terms for quality and indifference. However, there were limits since only 34 out of 38 registration zones were covered and there were partly boycott signs among minorities in few zones. During the population census there were many discourses regarding the Emigrants whom were not included in the registration process directly, but, they were only included in supplementary lists. Based on the research, many emigrants were not informed well. Some of them thought that they will lose their nationality or the participation on the elections. With the population census you do not loose either the right to vote or the nationality. However, with the population census you don’t win them either. There were many doubts in the population census if they should declare or not the land possession and wealth in real estate, thinking that if their land is registered they will be taxed. In the European Statistician Conference on 2006, the principles for population censuses are defined in order to avoid overlapping of population number worldwide. If an emigrant lives, acts and works in another country for more than 12 months he/she should be registered in that country, since this country should plan for them since they live there. In addition, if the emigrant is registered in the place where he/she lives and works in the origin country