Oakton Community College Environmental Scan - 2016 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

Report prepared by: Andy Blanke, Brian Harger, Thomas Kazmierczak, Shannon Sohl and Sherrie Taylor Center for Governmental Studies Division of Outreach, Engagement and Regional Development Northern Illinois University DeKalb, IL 60115 [email protected], 815-753-0934

The findings and conclusions presented in this report are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect the views, opinions, or policies of the officers and/or trustees of Northern Illinois University.

P a g e | 1 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

Table of Contents

LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES ...... 4

TABLES ...... 4

FIGURES ...... 4

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...... 6

INTRODUCTION ...... 7

PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT ...... 8

DEMOGRAPHICS ...... 9

POPULATION ...... 9

AGE CHARACTERISTICS ...... 12

RACE & ETHNICITY ...... 18

HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS ...... 19

HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS ...... 21

STATUS OF HOUSING ...... 22

FOREIGN BORN AND ENGLISH SPEAKING ...... 22

LANGUAGE SPOKEN AT HOME ...... 23

RECESSION IMPACTS ...... 24

NATIONAL...... 24

ILLINOIS ...... 26

BUSINESS AND INDUSTRY ...... 28

UNEMPLOYMENT ...... 28

LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION ...... 30

EARNINGS AND WAGES ...... 34

MEETING THE NEEDS OF BUSINESS AND INDUSTRY ...... 39

WORKFORCE CHARACTERISTICS ...... 39

CURRENT DEMAND FOR WORKERS ...... 42

MATCHING LOCAL TALENT WITH LOCAL JOBS ...... 46

OCCUPATIONS ...... 48

INDUSTRIES ...... 49

P a g e | 2 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

LOCATION QUOTIENTS ...... 50

DETERMINING FUTURE DEMAND ...... 53

FUTURE OAKTON STUDENTS ...... 56

SCHOOL INVENTORY ...... 56

SCHOOL INDICATORS ...... 57

UPWARD GRADE LEVEL TRANSITION ...... 58

FAFSA APPLICATIONS ...... 59

INTERESTING TRENDS ...... 60

P a g e | 3 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

List of Tables and Figures

Tables Table 1: Race/Ethnicity in Oakton’s District ...... 18 Table 2: Illinois Appropriations for Higher Education ...... 26 Table 3: Total Revenue by Source in Illinois Community Colleges ...... 27 Table 4: Change in Industry Employment through Recent Business Cycles ...... 29 Table 5: Change in Non-Farm Employment through Recent Business Cycles ...... 30 Table 6: Labor Force Participation and Unemployment by Education Attainment ...... 32 Table 7: Annual Earnings by Educational Attainment, 2014...... 34 Table 8: Required Certification Listed in Job Postings ...... 42 Table 9: Top Occupations by Number of Job Postings ...... 43 Table 10: Top Industries by Number of Job Postings ...... 44 Table 11: Top Skills by Number of Job Postings ...... 45 Table 12: Commuter Inflow/Outflow...... 46 Table 13: Education Attainment of Resident Workers ...... 47 Table 14: Employment by Major Occupational Group ...... 48 Table 15: Employment by Major Industry Group ...... 49 Table 16: Projected Job Openings by Associate’s Degree ...... 54 Table 17: High School Indicators ...... 58

Figures Figure 1: Oakton College District ...... 7 Figure 2: Oakton District Municipal Populations – 2014 ...... 8 Figure 3: Top Ten Destination States, 2014 ...... 8 Figure 4: Population Change of Top Cities ...... 9 Figure 5: City of Chicago Population Growth ...... 9 Figure 6: Illinois Urban/Rural Percentages ...... 10 Figure 7: Map of Megapolitan Areas ...... 11 Figure 8: Change in Age Groups from 2010 to 2014 in Oakton’s District ...... 12 Figure 9: Age Groups in Oakton Community College District – 2014 ...... 14 Figure 10: Birth Rates per 1,000 in Population ...... 15 Figure 11: Education Attainment in Oakton’s District ...... 16 Figure 12: Lifetime Earnings Ratio ...... 17 Figure 13: A More Diverse Nation ...... 19 Figure 14: 2010 Oakton District Housing Characteristics ...... 19 Figure 15: Age of Housing in the Oakton District...... 20 Figure 16: Household Size in Oakton’s District ...... 21 Figure 17: Number of Foreclosures in Oakton’s District ...... 22 Figure 18: Foreign Born and Citizenship Status ...... 22 Figure 19: Language Spoken at Home ...... 23

P a g e | 4 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

Figure 20: Percent of National Population by Income Quintile ...... 24 Figure 21: National Median Net Worth of Families ...... 24 Figure 22: National Income Quintiles by Education Attainment ...... 25 Figure 23: Unemployment Rate Comparison (1990-2015) ...... 28 Figure 24: Labor Force Participation Rate Trend ...... 31 Figure 25: Labor Force Participation by School Enrollment Status in Oakton’s District ...... 33 Figure 26: Annual Average Earnings by Education Attainment and Industry Sector ...... 36 Figure 27: Occupational Employment, Annual Median Wages and Projected Job Openings ...... 38 Figure 28: Employment by Race ...... 39 Figure 29: Employment by Hispanic Ethnicity ...... 40 Figure 30: Employment by Age Group ...... 41 Figure 31: Change in Employment Concentration ...... 51 Figure 32: FAFSA Completions ...... 59

P a g e | 5 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

Executive Summary

P a g e | 6 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

Introduction

The nation has experienced dramatic change in the last decade, driven primarily by a global economic recession that began in 2008. While there are signs of improvement, the slow recovery has hampered families’ ability to return their incomes to pre- recession levels. Unemployment rates, housing values, wages, and many other financial indicators suggest that the resources needed to pay for postsecondary education have been directly impacted, a critical consideration for institutional planning. The campaign in 2016 proposed the feasibility of offering the first two years of community college free for students. This would represent a potential game-changer for post-secondary education. However, funding concerns are likely to stall or prevent implementation if entertained by the President-elect. Other economic, demographic, workforce, technological, and political trends are important to consider, as they all shape the opportunities and challenges before Oakton Community College.

This environmental scan is intended to provide a baseline of information for Oakton Community College’s next strategic planning process to begin in 2017. Understanding the implications of the Great Recession and other relevant trends and dynamics at the local, regional, state, national and global levels will assist Oakton in charting the best course of future action.

Primary data sources used for this scan were public agencies that included the Illinois Department of Employment Security, Illinois State Board of Education, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau, the National Center for Education Statistics, and the Illinois Department of Revenue. Some resources came from private institutions providing freely accessible data such as the Woodstock Institute on foreclosures. Several subscription-based data resources were from private, for-profit companies such as Alteryx, Easi Analytics, Labor Insight and Esri. Another data source was the Society for College and University Planning (SCUP).

P a g e | 7 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

Physical Environment

The Oakton Community College District is in the northeast corner of Cook County, Illinois. Cook County was founded on January 15, 1831 named after Daniel Pope Cook who was the youngest statesman in Illinois history serving in Congress and as the first Attorney General of Illinois. The global city of Chicago has been attracting migrants from all over the world creating the energized metropolitan area. The Oakton District has flourished as a result of being in close proximity to a global city and vibrant suburbs.

The Oakton Community College district encompasses approximately 109 square miles out of a total 945 square miles in Cook County. The district was home to approximately 464,737 residents in 2010, leading to a population density of 4,263 persons living within one square mile. As a comparison, Cook County houses 5,495 persons per square mile. The next most densely populated counties are DuPage, Lake and Kane, respectively, surrounding the district throughout the state. Since 2010 the district has grown by 4.7% or to approximately 486,807 residents in 2014.

There are 14 municipalities located within the district: Golf, Kenilworth, Northfield, Glencoe, Winnetka, Lincolnwood, Morton Grove, Wilmette, Niles, Northbrook, Park Ridge, Glenview, Skokie and Evanston. Three additional municipalities have only a portion overlapping the district: Deerfield, Rosemont and Des Plaines. There are five townships completely within the district: Northfield, New Trier, Maine, Niles and Evanston. Only a small portion of Wheeling, Leyden and Norwood Park Townships overlap the college district. The district is urban in nature with very little unincorporated areas suitable for residential settlement or appealing for annexation. Therefore, the population and housing units are anticipated to remain fairly stagnant due to the area already being built up to capacity. Figure 1: Oakton College District

Community College districts receive many of their new students from the high schools within the district. Oakton has ten high schools: Evanston Township HS, Glenbrook North HS, Glenbrook South HS, Maine East HS, Maine South HS, Maine West HS, New Trier Township HS (Winnetka and Northfield), Niles North HS and Niles West HS with a 2016 enrollment of 23,491 students in grades nine through twelve.

P a g e | 8 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

Oakton has two campuses, the main campus is located in Des Plaines and there is a satellite campus in Skokie.

Demographics

Population

Figure 2: Oakton District Municipal Populations - 2014

Golf village 490 Kenilworth village 2,648 Rosemont village* 4,043 Northfield village 5,332 Glencoe village 8,824 Winnetka village 12,366 Lincolnwood village 12,653 Deerfield village 18,476 Morton Grove village 23,424 Wilmette village 27,345 Niles village 29,939 Northbrook village 33,396 Park Ridge city 37,511 Glenview village 45,400 Des Plaines city* 58,802 Skokie village 65,056 Evanston city 75,282 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010-2014 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates *Indicates municipality is only partially overlapping the Oakton district.

The country has experienced great migration shifts from the northern FIGURE 3: TOP 10 Prior IL tier to the southern tier primarily in search of warmer climates for many ESTINATION D Residents decades. However, Illinois is experiencing a slightly different trend. STATES, 2014 Approximately 330,000 Illinois residents left the state in 2014. There Indiana 41,818 were an additional 273,000 that moved into the state, leaving a net loss Wisconsin 30,591 Florida 27,505 of 57,000 residents. The majority of those who moved out did not move Texas 23,280 to the southern tier states, but rather to the border states such as Missouri 22,655 Indiana, Wisconsin, Missouri and Iowa. California 19,116 Michigan 15,770 There have always been residents leaving for the neighboring states but Iowa 13,728 the new trend is the lack of new residents, through birth or migrating Minnesota 12,259 Arizona 12,005 into Illinois, to make up for those that leave. People are always moving Source: IPUMS-USA, University in search of better jobs or to be closer to family, but Illinois has had a of Minnesota, www.ipums.org.

P a g e | 9 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

positive net gain until just two years ago. Why this is occurring is difficult to define through the data as it does not address motives. However, it should be noted that most leaving are not going far if still of working age. The top states to leave Illinois for a new residence is Indiana and Wisconsin as opposed to retirees moving south for a warmer climate. Figure 4: Population Change of Top Cities Florida, California, Arizona and Texas are still popular states and are on the top 10 destination states for Illinoisans, but the other six on the top ten are border-states.

There has been a high proportion of Hispanic and Latino families moving into Illinois. If it were not for the high numbers of in-migrating Hispanics, the population loss in Cook County alone would have gone from a miniscule 179 people to 13,000 overall from 2013 to 2014. Statewide from 2010 to 2014 there has been a loss of almost 10,000 people overall, but if the Hispanic community had Source: U.S. Census Bureau not expanded during that time frame the overall loss would have been around 80,000 people. The demographics in Illinois are changing.

The U.S. Census Bureau published the 1 Million Milestone graphic (see Figure 4) showing population change among the cities with one million or more in population. Chicago, if the current pace keeps up, will be the 4th largest city after Houston in thirteen years. Among the global cities, Chicago is the only city that is blocked from expanding as Figure 5: City of Chicago Population Growth Lake Michigan is the border to 4,000,000 the East and everywhere else 3,500,000 there are multiple suburbs deep 3,000,000 2,500,000 surrounding the city boundary. 2,000,000 1,500,000 The only way to truly expand 1,000,000 would be upwards. Since 1980 500,000 0

the population has stagnated

1980 2000 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 (Figure 5). Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1940-2010 Decennial Census and American Community Survey, 2011-2014.

P a g e | 10 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

The global cities attract people seeking employment from around the world. The foreign born are well documented and Illinois, primarily Chicago, receive a large proportion every year. The in-migration coupled with the decades-long shift of rural population decline in favor of urban regions is drastically changing Illinois from an agricultural or industrial society to a service-based society.

Illinois is still primarily agricultural when Figure 6: Illinois Urban/Rural Percentages considering the land attribution, but the Urban Rural 12.2% 11.5% 19.3% 16.8% 16.7% 15.4% economy of Illinois is strongly propelled 26.4% 22.4% through services. Currently in Illinois, it is estimated that only 11.5% of the

87.8% 88.5% population live in rural areas with the 80.7% 83.2% 83.3% 84.6% 73.6% 77.6% remaining 88.5% living in urban areas in comparison to 26.4% living in rural areas in 1940, see Figure 6. 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1940-2010 Decennial Census The shift helped to build the Oakton Community College district into the bustling urban region it is today. The future outlook is positive as Chicago is, according to the Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech, expected to continue positive regional growth evolving into one of ten ‘Megapolitan’ areas throughout the country by 2050. A large city is a central core with many other units contributing, such as the suburbs and transportation networks. It is anticipated the Oakton district is one of many entities creating the global urban region of the lakefront region (see Figure 7).

As a greater portion of the Figure 7: Map of Megapolitan Areas population will move out of the rural areas into the more urban environments as these Megapolitan areas are anticipated to continue growing. Convenience to shopping and services along with greater opportunities for

Source: Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech. employment and upward

P a g e | 11 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

mobility is making the more urban regions more appealing. If Illinois continues to lose population the appeal of the Oakton district will help to weather the storm, or continue to grow in population, minimizing the damage that a great loss of population can bring.

Age Characteristics

The age of a community helps to define the services that will be in demand today along with gauging what to prepare for tomorrow. School-aged children need different services than the older citizens. Nationally the trend is showing the population aging due to the Baby Boomers (those born in 1946 through 1964) reaching retirement age. Because there are so many of them in comparison to other age groups the impact is being felt by pension systems not prepared for as many retirements and increasing demand for health care.

Oakton is not very different from the national trends. The graphic below shows the percent change in each age group from 2010 to 2014. The median age of the population is increasing as older age groups represent a growing share of the population. As the birth rate declines and families are becoming smaller, the share of population in younger age groups is decreasing. The change among those that are of college age is primarily due to those attending college outside of the district. If compared with the same graphic of Champaign or DeKalb Counties the college age groups would be very large due to the residential college students. The Baby Boomers are now a much greater proportion of the population entering retirement creating large increases in the proportion of those in the higher age groups (see Figure 8).

Figure 8: Change in Age Groups from 2010 to 2014 in Oakton's District

26.1% 24.1% 20.2% 15.8%

8.6% 6.2% 5.4% 4.2% 1.1% 1.8% 0.6%

-2.1% -3.3% -4.1% Under 5 to 9 10 to 15 to 20 to 25 to 30 to 35 to 40 to 45 to 50 to 55 to 60 to 65 to 70 to 75 to 80 to 85 5 years 14 19 24 29 34 39 44 49 54 59 64 69 74 79 84 years years years years years years years years years years years years years years years years years and over Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Five year, Table S0101.

P a g e | 12 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

The median age for the district is 42, while the median age is 37.4 nationally and 37 in Illinois. Therefore, there is a much larger proportion of those at the upper end of the age scale in comparison within Oakton’s district. 17.5% or just under 102,000 residents are aged 65 plus. Within the Oakton Community College District, Northfield Township has the highest median age of 46 years old and Evanston Township has the lowest at 35 years old. Opportunities for non-credit or career transfer can be more appealing to an older population. 1

The age pyramid shows the distribution of males and females by 5-year age groups. A bulge in the graph indicating the Baby Boomer generation can be seen along with an indent of those graduating high school and moving away to college. Since there is not a large university there are fewer residents within those age categories. Noted within the pyramid are those in the youngest age categories where the decline in births can be viewed. Compared to past generations, younger couples are waiting longer to start families coupled with the fact that many are having fewer or no children. The economy has an impact as couples wait until they can afford a family which is taking longer to reach that level of financial comfort. The decline in youths is already being felt in the school systems with declining enrollments in the primary grades. The phenomenon is taking place nationally.

AGEING POPULATIONS

According to Pew Research Center data cited in the 2015 Society for College and University Planning (SCUP) publication, Trends for Higher Education, those over the age of 65 are expected to reach 16.6% of the population by 2020, which represents twice their share of the national population in 1950. Due to constrained resources it will be likely that families will consolidate as the need to care for older relatives increases. SCUP further suggests that this may open new markets in higher education of yet-untapped non-traditional students, a broader pool of alums for support, and the thought of elder housing on or near campus to consider (Society, 2015). The share of population over age 65 in the Oakton district has already exceeded the 16.6% mark.

Source: SCUP 2015

1 Age groups for 2010 and 2014

P a g e | 13 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

Figure 9: Age Groups in Oakton Community College District - 2014

Male Female 85 years and over 6,509 12,181

80 to 84 years 6,056 9,219

75 to 79 years 7,076 9,857

Baby Boomers 70 to 74 years 9,253 12,162

65 to 69 years 13,776 15,489

60 to 64 years 17,706 19,561

55 to 59 years 20,802 23,332

50 to 54 years 20,694 22,689

45 to 49 years 19,105 21,355

40 to 44 years 18,969 19,499

35 to 39 years 16,498 18,139

30 to 34 years 15,684 16,442

College Bound

25 to 29 years 17,258 15,305

20 to 24 years 17,657 16,068

15 to 19 years 19,727 17,323

10 to 14 years 19,134 17,945 Declining Births

5 to 9 years 18,442 18,242

Under 5 years 15,354 15,467

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2014 Five Year Data, Table S0101.

Birth Rates

Birth rates have been declining for many years. Since 2007, the birth rate fell in Cook County from 15.4 births per 1,000 in population to only 13.3. In Illinois the rate is slightly lower going from 14.2 to 12.3 births per 1,000 in population according to the Center for Disease Control. In less than ten years the pool of graduates in Oakton’s district will be much less than what is currently being experienced- approximately 7,249 fewer students when comparing the 15-19 year olds with the Under 5 years’ group. The cumulative effect of the 15-19 year-old cohort through birth is over 11,000 fewer graduates and there has been no sign of the birth rate increasing in the near future.

P a g e | 14 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

Figure 10: Birth Rates per 1,000 in Population AFTER THE MILLENNIALS, Cook County Illinois HERE COMES GENERATION Z 20

15 The Pew Research Center recently 10 reported that a record 7 in 10 (69 percent) US Hispanic high school 5 graduates in the class of 2012 enrolled in college that fall, a slightly 0 higher rate than their White 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 counterparts (67 percent). Still, the survey found that Hispanic students Source: Center for Disease Control, WONDER database. were less likely than their White counterparts to attend college full Figure 10 illustrates the declining birth rate for Cook County. time or enroll in a four-year or selective college and were less likely The rate has been going down resulting in a loss of almost to complete a bachelor’s degree. 10,000 new babies during a time when the population For discussion increased. Taking a look at the ethnic breakdown, those in the Non-Hispanic and Latino communities have a reduced the How well does your institution recruit and serve the growing total births by 7%, or almost 4,000 babies per year. Those that population of Hispanic students? Does it tailor its recruitment to are Hispanic have decreased by 25%, or almost 7,000 babies reflect the unique interests and per year in sheer numbers of babies born within the year in needs of the Hispanic community, perhaps including family education comparison with 2007. about the processes of selecting, applying to, and paying for college? Births by Race categories shows the largest number in decline How well does your institution support Hispanic students once is the White race with on average 7,000 fewer births than in they enroll? Does it help Hispanic students succeed academically and 2007, or a decrease of 13.4%. However, the Black race has the complete their degrees? largest proportion decrease of 18.6%, or 4,000 fewer births Source: SCUP 2016. than in 2007. American Indians and Alaska Natives also show a decrease but the numbers are extremely small due to the low numbers in the population. Asians or Pacific Islanders are the only group showing an increase of 500 more births in 2014 in comparison to 2007, or a 9.6% increase.

P a g e | 15 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

Education Attainment

Education attainment among the Figure 11: Education Attainment in Oakton's residents in the Oakton district has District been progressing. Those holding a 2009 2014 Bachelor’s degree or greater have been Graduate or professional 23.1% degree 24.7% increasing in both numbers and in proportions of the population. The Bachelor's degree 27.1% 29.4% lower levels of education have been Associate's degree 5.3% remaining fairly stable indicating that 5.1% an increasing number of residents are Some college, no degree 15.9% pursuing education beyond the 15.8% Associate’s degree. High school graduate 16.9% 16.9% The Illinois comparison is almost the 9th to 12th grade, no 3.8% opposite pattern as there are many diploma 3.9% more with some college or less, but Less than 9th grade 3.9% when comparing populations holding 4.1% degrees Oakton is much higher. In Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2014, the Illinois percentage for those Five Year Data, 2009 & 2014. holding an Associate’s degree is 7.5%, Bachelor’s degree is 19.7% and a Graduate or Professional degree is 12.2%.

P a g e | 16 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

The Lifetime Earnings ratio in Figure 12 represents the country as a whole as to the difference in expected earnings over a lifetime based HELPING HISPANIC upon highest education achieved. The High School diploma is used as STUDENTS SUCCEED a benchmark for the remaining categories. For example, an individual holding a Master’s Degree can anticipate almost twice what an The Pew Research Center recently reported that a individual with a high school diploma would earn. The bottom line is record 7 in 10 (69 percent) US that education does pay. Hispanic high school graduates in the class of 2012 enrolled in college that fall, a

Figure 12: Lifetime Earnings Ratio slightly higher rate than their White counterparts (67 percent). Still, the survey found that Hispanic students were less likely than their White counterparts to attend college full time or enroll in a four-year or selective college and were less likely to complete a bachelor’s degree.5

For discussion

How well does your institution recruit and serve the growing population of Hispanic students? Does it tailor its recruitment to reflect the unique interests Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012, Table PINC-03; calculations and needs of the Hispanic by SCUP, Trends in Higher Education Series, Education Pays community, perhaps including family education 2013. about the processes of selecting, applying to, and paying for college? How well does your institution support Hispanic students once they enroll? Does it help Hispanic students succeed academically and complete their degrees?

Source: SCUP 2016.

P a g e | 17 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

Race & Ethnicity

Illinois is diversifying as more Whites and Blacks move out than are moving in. Illinois lost, on net, 10,000 residents to other states in 2013 and an additional 23,000 residents in 2014. Asian is the only race increasing in number, but the total number is very low in comparison to Whites and Blacks. The population losses in Illinois from the Whites and Blacks is being masked by the influx to the Hispanic and Latino communities. The cumulative effect from 2010 through 2014 would have been a net loss of over 80,000 in population if they had not been moving in such large numbers.

Table 1: Race/Ethnicity in Oakton’s District2 2009 2014 Numeric Percent Total: 452,505 460,297 7,792 1.7% Not Hispanic or Latino: 421,837 416,824 -5,013 -1.2% White alone 327,937 311,649 -16,288 -5.0% Black or African American alone 22,724 22,748 24 0.1% Asian alone 62,817 72,714 9,897 15.8% Some other race alone 2,150 1,277 -873 -40.6% Two or more races 6,209 8,436 2,227 35.9% Hispanic or Latino: 30,668 43,473 12,805 41.8% White alone 16,993 31,251 14,258 83.9% Black or African American alone 271 355 84 31.0% Asian alone 365 274 -91 -24.9% Some other race alone 12,212 10,124 -2,088 -17.1% Two or more races 827 1,469 642 77.6% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey Five Year Data, 2009 & 2014

Table 1 illustrates these changes in the Oakton district. The total population edged up by 1.7% overall. However, most of that growth is attributed to the Hispanic or Latino communities. The White Non- Hispanics decreased in number by just over 16,000, or 5%, but the Hispanic Whites increased by just over 14,000, or 83.9% from 2009 to 2014. The Asians increased by almost 10,000, second only to White Hispanics. Overall the Non-Hispanics declined by 5,000 people but the Hispanic community grew overall by almost 13,000 people. The White community still has a significant majority in the region as the Hispanic community represents 10.4% of the overall population. However, the Oakton community is becoming

2 Hispanics and Latinos can be of any race, therefore they are kept separate in this table. The aggregations were made from the following townships: Evanston, Maine, New Trier, Niles, and Northfield.

P a g e | 18 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

more diverse with no anticipation the trend will reverse. The same trend has been seen Figure 13: throughout Illinois.

Nationally, if combining all minorities in comparison to the White community, the minorities are beginning to become the majority primarily in the younger age groups. Currently, the minorities are the majority for those under 5 years old at 50.2% (see Figure 13). In Illinois the 5-9 age group is currently at 49.3%, with those under 5 years old at 49.1%.

Housing Characteristics

The 2006-07 burst of the housing bubble started a cycle of depressed home values further contributing to the 2008 recession. The mortgages made available to people that could not afford the payments led to the loss of many homes that are the foundation for living the American Dream. Many neighborhoods experienced homes becoming boarded up and vacant until the banks could manage the high number of foreclosures. According to the Illinois Realtor’s Association, any home in the Chicago area within 1/10th mile of a home worth $150,000 would lose just over $6,000 in housing value. However, as many neighborhoods experienced, only one foreclosure would be a blessing. Many experienced multiple foreclosures within 2/10th of a mile which was shown to decrease the value of a $150,000 home to less than $100,0003. Many will say that it is only the correction of property values from a period of unusually high valuations, but the redistribution of home values and families that could afford homes has caused stress on neighborhoods and the ability of families to afford higher education. While much of the news about the Chicago region has been positive in number of homes sold and housing values increasing, the comparison to other metropolitan areas puts Chicago in last place for rate of recovery.

3 Illinois Association of Realtors, http://www.illinoisrealtor.org/foreclosureimpact

P a g e | 19 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

The vacancy rate in 2010 was 6.6% and Figure 14: 2010 Oakton District Housing the most current data estimates 8.9% Characteristics of units are now vacant. There is Renter- evidence the housing market is occupied housing units, Vacant rebounding albeit very slowly. The 22.9% Owner- housing units, occupied number of home sales is increasing 6.6% housing units, 70.5% along with the average housing value for homes sold. However, it could be many years before the economy in and around Cook County has returned to pre-recession levels. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Decennial Census.

The age of many of the homes in northeast Cook County are increasing. The Oakton district is fairly locked in by surrounding municipalities, allowing little room for expansion. However, there are many older homes that will need to be renovated or torn down and replaced with single or multi-family housing. 50.5% of homes in the Oakton district were built before 1960, compared to 42.3% of homes in Illinois (see Figure 15).

Figure 15: Age of Housing In The Oakton District

Built 1939 or earlier 17.7% Built 1940 to 1949 6.9% Built 1950 to 1959 25.9%

Built 1960 to 1969 17.6% Built 1970 to 1979 11.5% Built 1980 to 1989 5.6%

Built 1990 to 1999 5.6% Built 2000 to 2009 9.0% Built 2010 or later 0.3%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Decennial Census.

P a g e | 20 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

Household Characteristics

In 2010, the vast majority of Figure 16: Household Size in Oakton’s District households were 1-2 persons in the Oakton district, which is consistent with the rest of the state. The most common household size is two people, which is almost one-third of all households (55,240). The next most common size category is single person households, at just over 27% (47,859). Families comprise 120,144 of households, or 68.3%. Families are defined as Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Decennial Census. having dependent children under the age of 18, the prime market for Oakton (see Figure 16).

Since June of 2014, Illinois has permitted same-sex marriages. The Census Bureau estimates approximately 1,500 (or less than .03%) households are same-sex married couple households in the Oakton district. All of those households have own or related children as well. The number is anticipated to continue rising as acceptance of same-sex couples grows. Nationally, in 2010, the percentage of households with same-sex married couples was higher at approximately 1.0%, but many states still ban same-sex marriage and others legalized these marriages in different years. Because same-sex marriage is not legal in some states, the number of same-sex unmarried households is higher.

Multigenerational households tend to rise and fall in number with the economy, and can also differ between cultures. The Pew Research Center estimates there to be nearly one in five Americans living in a multigenerational household in 2014, a figure not seen since the 1950’s. The proliferation of cars and creation of the middle class allowed households to become independent through the 1980’s and has since gradually increased back to the same level in 20144. Many of the Baby Boomer generation are in their

4 http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/08/11/a-record-60-6-million-americans-live-in- multigenerational-households/

P a g e | 21 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

retired years and require more assistance and families find that it is easier to live together rather than pay for full time care facilities. The majority of multigenerational households were found to be adult children living with their parents that are not in school, almost 30% of all households.

White households are less likely to live in multigenerational households so part of the increase could be due to the increase in minorities. White households increased from 13% in 2009 to 15% in 2014 of all households. The Hispanic population (of any race) increased from 23% in 2009 to 25% in 2014. Asians have the highest percentages from 26% in 2009 to 28% in 2014.

Status of Housing Figure 17: Number of Foreclosures in Oakton's District5 The Oakton area has universally recovered from the

2008 housing crisis. Final foreclosures have 3,055 2,776 2,613 2,229 1,892 returned to numbers well before the 2008 recession 1,272 819 659 leading to the conclusion that neighborhoods are returning to stabilized property values that are 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 affordable. Throughout the state there are still Source: The Woodstock Institute, Foreclosures pockets of instability and loss of property values, especially in several Chicago neighborhoods. Having just a few foreclosed homes within a neighborhood can lead to those homes being abandoned or needing extreme renovations leading to depressed property values Figure 18: Foreign Born and throughout. The Oakton district has recovered already which Citizenship Status returns property values back to where they should have been without the housing crisis. 5

Foreign Born and English Speaking

Given that the Chicago metropolitan area has long been a destination for immigrants, the Oakton district has a large foreign- born population. 29% of the population was born outside of the U.S. In comparison, the national percentage is just over 13%, while Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Five Year in Illinois the percentage is 13.8%. The majority of immigrants in American Community Survey, 2014

5 Foreclosures were aggregated by city: Des Plaines, Evanston, Glencoe, Harwood Heights, Kenilworth, Lincolnwood, Morton Grove, Niles, Norridge, Northbrook, Northfield, Park Ridge, Rosemont, Skokie, Wilmette and Winnetka.

P a g e | 22 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

Oakton’s district are naturalized citizens (82,155 naturalized citizens compared to 48,730 non-citizens). 71% of the Oakton population is native born, including children of immigrants born in the U.S., see Figure 18. The majority of those born outside of the U.S. came from Asia, 52,128 residents. The second largest migration came from Europe (40,417 people), then the Americas (19,185 people), Africa (2,192 people) and Oceania (412 people)6.

The median household income in Cook County is $54,828 and to compare with those that are foreign born and have naturalized to American citizens the median household income is slightly higher at $56,943. Those that have not naturalized, which would include those here on Visas to attend school or work, is much lower at $41,389. These differences are also reflected in the poverty rates of families in Cook County. The overall rate is 13.3%, but for those naturalized the poverty rate declines to 8.7% and is much higher for those not naturalized at 23.5% of families.

Language Spoken at Home Figure 19: Language Spoken at Home 68% of residents speak only English at home or consider themselves to speak English “very well.” An additional 15% are bilingual and believe that they speak English “well”. However, 15% of residents speak Spanish only or do not speak English well, suggesting the continued need for bilingual education for disadvantaged groups. The high proportion of residents that speak English fluently is not surprising, given that many foreign-born residents came from Europe Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Decennial Census. (see Figure 19).

6 These totals were derived by aggregating Des Plaines, Evanston, Glencoe, Harwood Heights, Kenilworth, Lincolnwood, Morton Grove, Niles, Norridge, Northbrook, Northfield, Park Ridge, Skokie, Wilmette, Winnetka and Golf from the U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5 Year Data, 2014.

P a g e | 23 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

Recession Impacts

National

The economic recession as a result of the Figure 20: Percent of National Population 2008 housing and economic crash is in By Income Quintile Lowest Lower Middle Middle Upper Middle Highest recovery, albeit a slow recovery. A 3% 4% 5% 7% 8% 9% 10% 12% 12% prevalent issue today has been the growing 11% 12% 12% wage gap between the lowest and middle income classes in favor of the highest class.

After adjusting for inflation, the Pew 61% 59% 56% 54% 51% 50% Research Center found the middle class has been reduced in proportion from 61% to 9% 9% only 50%, from 1971 to 2015 (see Figure 9% 9% 9% 9%

20). 16% 17% 18% 18% 20% 20%

The phenomenon does not just impact 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2015 earnings, but overall wealth as the middle Source: Pew Research Center, 2015. class lost equity on their homes traditionally used as their nest egg for retirement and college tuition for their children. The middle class gained almost $70,000 in median net worth by family (adjusted for family size) from 1983 through 2007 from $95,879 to $161,050. Middle class families lost ground that they gained since 1983 returning to $98,057 in 2007 (see Figure 21).

Figure 21: National Median Net Worth of Families Upper Middle Lower $650,074 2013 $98,057 $9,465

$729,980 2007 $161,050 $18,264

$323,402 1983 $95,879 $11,544

Source: Pew Research Center, 2015

P a g e | 24 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

As seen in Figure 22 from the Pew Research Center, there is a correlation between education and income. Those with an Associate’s degree have incomes falling fairly evenly into each of the quintiles. However, for education levels past Bachelor’s degree, the income begins to shift in favor of higher income levels and continues through the graduate and professional degrees.

Figure 22: National Income Quintiles by Education Attainment

Lowest fifth Second fifth Middle fifth Fourth fifth Highest fifth

Doctorate degree 4.5%7.5% 11.1% 21.7% 55.1%

Professional degree 4.2%6.2% 10.5% 17.9% 61.2%

Master's degree 6.5% 9.0% 14.2% 26.5% 43.7%

Bachelor's degree 7.6% 13.0% 18.5% 26.3% 34.6%

Associate degree 15.2% 20.5% 24.1% 23.7% 16.4%

Some college, no degree 19.6% 23.1% 21.9% 21.3% 14.1%

High school graduate (includes equivalency) 24.5% 25.6% 23.5% 16.9% 9.6%

9th to 12th grade (no diploma) 46.8% 25.8% 16.2% 8.0%3.2%

Less than 9th grade 46.0% 27.7% 15.4% 8.2%2.6%

Source: Pew Research Center, 2015.

The median family income in Illinois is still tipped towards those in the upper class, but the findings from 2014 to 2015 show an increase across all groups, even when breaking down incomes by race and ethnicity, incomes have increased for the first time from 2014 to 2015. The gap between upper and lower incomes is beginning to contract. The Gini index is a measure of how equal or unequal incomes are and while the news has been covering the widening wage gap, the indicators are showing that gap to be contracting for the first time in densely populated areas such as the metropolitan statistical areas. The trend is true for the Chicago Metropolitan Area and time will tell if the trend continues to allow the middle class to expand back to pre-recession levels.

P a g e | 25 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

Illinois

Total state appropriations for higher education have gradually increased from $4.79 billion in 2011 to $5.84 billion in 2014, a change of 21.7% over that time frame with increases each year. However, most of the increases were in employee retirement as those born in the Baby Boom generation begin drawing pension funds. Retirement appropriations more than doubled since 2011. Appropriations also increased 8.6% for public universities, but appropriations decreased 4.5% for community colleges. Similarly, appropriations for adult and postsecondary education decreased 4.5%.

Table 2: Illinois Appropriations for Higher Education

$ Thousands Purpose Change, 2011 2012 2013 2014 2011-14 Total Appropriations $4,795,487 $5,308,527 $5,679,993 $5,837,919 21.7% Operations and Grants 3,795,872 3,964,665 3,919,639 3,967,190 4.5% Public Universities 2,874,913 3,019,087 3,069,236 3,122,167 8.6% Community Colleges 314,679 317,510 297,071 300,546 -4.5% Adult & Postsecondary Ed. 98,201 100,201 93,823 93,823 -4.5% Student Assistance Comsn. 467,531 487,875 421,649 410,366 -12.2% Institutional Grants/ Initiatives 14,801 13,815 12,275 13,856 -6.4% Math & Science Academy 21,266 21,266 20,748 21,496 1.1% IBHE Operations 3,206 3,706 3,631 3,731 16.4% Civil Service System 1,276 1,205 1,205 1,205 -5.6% Retirement 636,237 980,485 1,406,976 1,514,165 138.0% Admin. & Loan Reimbursements 363,378 363,378 353,378 356,564 -1.9% Source: Illinois Board of Higher Education Data Book, 2016.

P a g e | 26 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

Statewide the revenues being raised by Illinois Community Colleges to offset the lack of revenues from a variety of sources have been coming through local tax revenues, tuition and fees along with additional state revenue from 2011 to 2014. However, the overall revenue generation is down by 2%. Tuition can be raised, but with tuition raised to make up for lost revenues elsewhere there will be a tipping point rendering college unaffordable defeating the initial purpose of making college affordable.

Table 3: Total Revenue by Source in Illinois Community Colleges

Revenue Source 2011 2014 % Change Total Revenue 2,989,732,489 (100%) 2,930,577,774 (100%) -2.0% Local Tax Revenue 815,051,711 (27.3%) 844,779,347 (28.8%) 3.6% Other Local Revenue 40,312,003 (1.3%) 36,942,570 (1.3%) -8.4% ICCB Grants 340,564,856 (11.4%) 322,918,619 (11.0%) -5.2% Other State Revenue 103,713,796 (3.5%) 118,218,013 (4.0%) 14.0% Federal Revenue 668,075,608 (22.3%) 585,457,745 (20.0%) -12.4% Tuition and Fees 803,649,673 (26.9%) 813,978,626 (27.8%) 1.3% Misc. Revenue 218,364,842 (7.3%) 208,282,854 (7.1%) -4.6% Source: Illinois Board of Higher Education Data Book, 2016.

P a g e | 27 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

Business and Industry

Unemployment

Although unemployment in Cook County and the surrounding metro area continued to fall back toward pre-recession levels, it remains significantly higher than the U.S. average (Figure 23) 7. The unemployment rate in Cook County, which includes the Oakton Community College district, peaked in 2010 at 10.8% and has since fallen since then. In 2015, it reached 6.1% which is its pre-recession average (2003 – 2007).

Figure 23: Unemployment Rate Comparison (1990 – 2015)

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2016. The area’s slow recovery is due in part to continuing job losses in manufacturing, financial and information services. Other key sectors such as construction and wholesale and retail trade are increasing employment, but have yet to return to pre-recession levels. Business and professional services, the largest single industry sector in the Chicago metro area, has been the primary driver of growth, adding 161,200 jobs since the end of the last recession8. The education and health services and the leisure and hospitality services sectors added 93,900 and 60,800 jobs, respectively, in the last seven years. These

7 The unemployment rate is based upon who is actively seeking work in the last week when surveyed. If a potential worker is not currently employed and not actively seeking employment, then they are not considered to be in the labor force. 8 Refers to employment change from June, 2009 through September, 2016. Data source: Illinois Department of Employment Security, Labor Market Information Unit, 2016.

P a g e | 28 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

sectors are also notable as were the only ones to have experienced employment growth both during and after the recession (Table 4). The financial activities are an area of particular concern as the Chicago also has been a center for banking, commodity and securities trading and related services. This sector not only suffered considerable employment losses, but has also continued to lose jobs since the recession ended in June 2009.

Table 4: Change in Industry Employment through Recent Business Cycles

Post-Recession During Recession June 2009 - September 2016 Chicago-Naperville, IL-IN-WI CSA December 2007 - June 2009

Number Percent Number Percent Total Non-Farm Employment -276,900 -6.0 347,800 8.0 Mining and Logging -300 -16.7 -300 -16.7 Construction -40,000 -19.0 11,200 7.1 Manufacturing -67,600 -14.0 -6,100 -1.5 Wholesale Trade -19,600 -7.7 12,700 5.4 Retail Trade -57,800 -11.5 20,700 4.7 Transportation and Utilities -18,900 -9.0 31,500 16.5 Information -7,300 -8.0 -3,300 -3.9 Financial Activities -24,100 -7.4 -10,900 -3.6 Professional and Business Services -75,700 -10.1 161,200 23.8 Educational and Health Services 15,600 2.6 84,700 13.7 Leisure and Hospitality 12,400 3.1 63,300 15.2 Other Services -1,000 -0.5 0 0.0 Government 7,400 1.3 -16,900 -2.9

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2016.

Cook County, the Chicago metro area and the State have tended to experience a higher percentage of job losses during recessions, as well as lower employment gains during periods of economic expansion when compared to the national average (Table 5 on the next page). The larger communities within the Oakton District have exhibited the same pattern up until recently. Following the last recession Des Plaines and Park Ridge have grown substantially, more than making up for the jobs losses during the recession, while most other communities are still trying to recover. It is also important to note the Evanston, Glenview and Northbrook have continued to experience net losses in employment even though the unemployment rates have come down close to their pre-recession levels. Although the reasons for this shift in employment growth patterns following the recession are unclear, it may relate in some way to the drop in labor force participation rates or the growth in the number of residents commuting to jobs outside the district.

P a g e | 29 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

Table 5: Change in Non-Farm Employment through Recent Business Cycles

Expansion Recession Expansion Recession Expansion Recession Expansion Recession Expansion Area Name 7/1980 7/1981 11/1982 6/1990 3/1991 2/2001 11/2001 11/2007 6/2009 7/1981 11/1982 6/1990 3/1991 2/2001 11/2001 11/2007 6/2009 9/2016 Des Plaines 1.6% -6.6% 30.0% -3.6% 1.9% -2.3% 1.7% -5.5% 14.4% Evanston 1.6% -6.6% 30.3% -3.2% 0.8% -2.3% 6.6% -4.8% -4.2% Glenview 1.6% -6.6% 45.3% -3.4% 22.0% -2.3% 7.5% -5.3% -2.2%

Morton 1.6% -6.6% 19.6% -3.8% -1.8% -2.3% 2.0% -5.4% 3.8% Grove Niles 1.6% -6.6% 12.1% -3.7% 3.0% -2.3% -2.4% -6.3% 3.6% Northbrook 1.6% -6.6% 29.3% -3.1% 2.8% -2.3% 2.5% -5.8% -1.5% Park Ridge 2.9% -7.9% 15.5% -3.7% 5.5% -2.3% -1.2% -5.3% 6.5% Skokie 1.6% -6.6% 21.4% -4.1% 6.1% -2.3% 7.7% -6.6% 1.6% Wilmette 1.6% -6.6% 11.7% -3.4% 1.4% -2.3% -2.4% -6.2% 5.3% Cook 1.6% -6.6% 9.5% -3.4% 7.9% -2.3% -0.2% -5.5% 6.6 County Chicago 1.6% -6.6% 19.3% -2.9% 15.2% -2.0% 5.7% -5.2% 4.8 Metro Illinois 0.0% -5.2% 15.1% -3.3% 11.7% -1.3% 5.9% -5.9% 3.0 U.S. 1.5% -1.2% 20.0% -1.1% 17.0% -1.0% 7.6% -4.5% 8.5

Source: Illinois Department of Employment Security, 2016; U.S, Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2016.

Labor Force Participation

The unemployment rate estimates the percentage of workers in the labor force who are currently unemployed but seeking work, while the labor force participation rate is the percentage of the population 16 and older who are either working or actively seeking work. Participation rates have declined steadily since the 1990s. Since the last recession this decline has accelerated, thus many analysts believe that the official unemployment rate understates the employment situation because it does not account for the growing number of people who have dropped out of the labor force. The participation rate is affected by the number of discouraged workers who are no longer seeking employment, so it is important to consider labor force participation along with the unemployment rate.

Demographic shifts are also likely contributors to the trend toward lower participation rates as growing numbers of “Baby Boomer” move into retirement and lower birth rates and out migration leaves a smaller pool of younger workers to replace them. Although state and national data suggest that older workers are staying in the workforce longer than in the past, it may not be enough to offset the overall downward

P a g e | 30 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

trend9. In addition, labor force participation among younger working age people fell significantly between 2002 and 2012, but has begun to recover since then10.

Figure 24 compares labor force participation rates for Cook County in relation to the Chicago metro area, Illinois and the U.S. While Cook County is comparable to the national average, participation rates are notably lower than the Chicago metro area or the State of Illinois. Given the changes in the post-recession job market, it is understandable that many of the unemployed and other job seekers are struggling to match their skills, education and experience to the new reality. This suggests that it may be some time broadly based economic recovery takes hold.

Figure 24: Labor Force Participation Rate Trend U.S., Illinois, the Chicago Metropolitan Area and Cook County

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2016

9 Despite fluctuations following the 2002 and 2008-2009 recessions, labor force participation of persons 65 year of age and older increased from 16.3 in 2002 to 19.9 in 2015. The U.S. LFPR for this age group, though lower, followed a similar trajectory. Data source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2016. 10 Reference BLS data.

P a g e | 31 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

The benefits of post-secondary education are evident when comparing labor force participation and employment characteristics. While data specific to the Oakton district or Cook County is not available, statistics for the City of Chicago and the Chicago metro area offer a reasonable approximation. The data in Table 6 suggests a strong connection between higher levels of education, labor force participation and the likelihood of being employed. Those that lacked a high school diploma or GED experienced both the lowest labor participation rates and the highest unemployment rates. Those that completed high school, but have no post-secondary education also experience unemployment rates that are much higher than average for the working age population. Those that had either some college credit or a degree enjoyed highest rates of labor force participation and lowest rates of unemployment both locally, as well as statewide.

Table 6. Labor Force Participation and Unemployment by Educational Attainment, 2014

Labor Force Participation Rate Unemployment Rate Persons age 25 years and older State of Chicago City of State of Chicago City of Illinois Metro* Chicago Illinois Metro* Chicago Less than a high school diploma or equivalent 47.3 49.8 47.6 11.3 10.1 13.1

High school graduate or equivalent, no college 57.8 58.0 62.1 7.5 7.2 9.2

Some college or associate's degree 68.5 69.5 67.2 6.0 6.3 6.6

Bachelor's degree and higher 76.8 76.4 79.4 3.4 3.8 4.5

* Refers to the Chicago–Naperville-Elgin Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Geographic Profile of Employment and Unemployment, 2014.

P a g e | 32 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

For the younger working age population (those between 18 and 24 years old), involvement in post- secondary education or training programs can also influence labor force participation. This is an important issue for several reasons. First, many students choose to attend school full-time while others divide their efforts between work and school depending on the type of education program they are involved in, the state of the economy, and personal circumstances. This may, in part, influence the labor force participation among the younger working age population groups11. Figure 25 shows that a small plurality of those attending school are not in the labor force and are, presumably, are either attending full-time, do not have the need or desire to work or are unable to find work.

Figure 25. Labor Force Participation by School Enrollment Status in Oakton’s District Persons 18 to 24 Years of Age, 2014*

* Based on aggregated data for Evanston, Maine, New Trier, Niles and Northfield Townships in Cook County, Il. Source: IPUMS-USA, University of Minnesota, www.ipums.org. Those that are in the labor force but not attending are also a diverse group. They include some that have completed their education and are now working, as well as others that have some post-secondary education or training or have not education beyond high school. Research cited elsewhere in this report shows a substantial number of people within the district and the surrounding area that have some post-

11 Although data is limited, the U.S. Census Bureau estimates that the labor force participation rates for persons 16 to 19 years of age in Illinois declined from 54.4 in 2000 to 38.2 in 2015. Likewise, labor force participation rates for persons 20 to 24 years of age in Illinois has fell from 79.5 to 71.3 over the same period.

P a g e | 33 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

secondary experience but no degree. The percentage of those not in the labor force and not attending school (6%) is small, but are still a significant population (2,156) in the district and likely include individuals from disadvantaged groups or underserved areas. Both of these groups would seem to offer opportunities for local educational institutions to recruit future students, provided that outreach efforts exist or can be created to meets their needs.

Earnings and Wages

Although the words "earnings" and "wages" are often used interchangeably, the differences between the two can be significant. When someone has no income other than wages, it's correct to use the terms to mean the same thing. But for people with interest-bearing bank accounts, rental income, retirement benefits, stock dividends or annuities, the two words mean different things. This section examines both earnings and wages as a means to illustrate how different levels of educational attainment, especially the degrees or other credentials typically offered by community colleges, can impact an individual’s economic status. It also shows how this impact can vary based on the industry or occupation in which the individual is employed.

Table 7. Annual Earnings by Educational Attainment, 2014

State of Illinois Chicago Metro* Cook County Persons age 25 years and older Number Percent** Number Percent** Number Percent** All Education Categories $55,188 1.00 $59,496 1.00 $61,071 1.00

Less than high school $37,242 0.67 $38,136 0.64 $37,893 0.62 High school or equivalent, no college $44,358 0.80 $46,773 0.79 $46,770 0.77 Some college or Associate degree $53,343 0.97 $56,676 0.95 $57,114 0.94 Bachelor's degree or advanced degree $87,591 1.59 $92,910 1.56 $97,002 1.59

* Refers to the Chicago–Naperville-Elgin Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). ** Refers to the percentage of the average of All Educational Categories for the given geographic area. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics program, Quarterly Workforce Indicators, 2016.

P a g e | 34 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

Just as educational attainment affects employment status, there is also a connection between the level of education and earnings. As Table 7 suggests, annual earnings increase with the level of education. For example, those with some college credit or an Associate’s degree earn approximately $9,000 to $11,000 more per year than high school graduates with no college credit12. To be sure these figures are influenced to a considerable degree by the industry and occupational makeup of the geographic area. The predominance of business and professional services industries and ‘white collar’ occupations in the Chicago metro area also plays a role in the significantly higher level of compensation for those with more education and the credentials in demand when compared to the state averages.

WHAT CONSTITUTES A LIVING WAGE?

While workers’ rights organizations push for compensation levels that they say constitute a living wage, other groups argue that minimum wages that are too high put undue pressure on employers and small businesses. A recent Harris poll finds that while Americans strongly agree that the current federal minimum wage of $7.25 per hour is too low (72% of Americans feel that way, in a majority that cuts across regional, political, and generational lines) there is considerable disagreement about what that minimum should be.

For discussion How do issues around the living wage affect your institution? Even if such positions are outsourced, how fairly are janitors and food service workers, for example, compensated at your institution? Similar questions can also pertain to professional staff—an adjunct faculty member who teaches four courses a semester at the national average of $2,700 per course earns below the national poverty level, generally with few if any benefits. As institutions rely more on contingent faculty, does the way adjuncts are compensated need revisiting?

Source: SCUP, 2016.

12 Because this particular dataset does not distinguish between those that have some college credit versus those with an Associate’s Degree, it is possible that those with an Associate’s Degree or similar credentials have higher annual earnings. However, additional research would be necessary to confirm this.

P a g e | 35 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

The impact of post-secondary education on the earnings also varies considerably by the industry in which a worker is employed. As Figure 26 illustrates, in Cook County workers with some college credits or an Associate’s level degree tend to have better than average earnings, as well as growth in annual earnings in manufacturing, construction, wholesale trade, public administration and many of the higher end service industries. It is important to note that the high concentration of corporate headquarters and companies involved in IT, finance and insurance and professional and technical services likely accounts for the higher earnings levels. It is also notable that earnings in other prominent industries such as health care and social assistance, administrative and waste services, as well as transportation and warehousing are lower than average, but they have experienced positive growth.

Declining employment in sectors such financial services are a cause for concern as the Chicago metro area has been a growing hub for these activities and were deeply impacted by the past recession and have continued to shed jobs since then. In addition to local factors this situation has been further complicated by industry factors such as merger and acquisition activities, outsourcing of some support positions and adoption of new technologies that have automated or eliminated some low-skilled and middle skilled

Figure 26. Annual Average Earnings by Educational Attainment and Industry Sector Persons Age 25 Years and Older with Some College or Associate Degree Cook County, Illinois, 2010-2014

Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2016.

P a g e | 36 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

jobs. This may also explain why earnings have continued to increase, even as industry employment continues to decline.

The public administration sector is being similarly impacted as local governments, try to cope with fiscal stress brought on by slow revenue growth, looming employee pension and benefit costs and increased demand for public services. As with the service sectors previously mentioned, many local governments are responding by implementing new technologies, consolidating functions and outsourcing. This has resulted in the elimination of many low-skilled and middle-skilled jobs with the remaining high-skilled professional, technical and administrative positions pushing up the average earnings in this sector.

Although the manufacturing and construction sectors still have relatively higher than average earnings and earnings growth, a combination of long and short-term trends have contributed to significant job losses. Manufacturing continues its historical trend of shedding jobs in its quest to remain globally competitive through increased productivity and reduced costs, especially with regard to labor. The construction sector appears to be more affected by cyclical economic forces and has yet to fully recover from the past recession. As with other industry sectors, the reason for continuing earnings growth in the construction industry may be due to the elimination of many low-skilled jobs.

Industry employment is made up of a variety of occupations with the number and proportions varying according to its product or service, the size of the business, or its particular function within a larger group of industries or corporate structure. For example, in the manufacturing sector, production occupations can account for 60% or more of a firm’s employment. There is also a wide variation in compensation between occupations based on the education, skills, experience required for the job, as well as the level of responsibility and local market conditions. It is therefore important to examine employment trends in among both industries and occupations to develop a better understanding of where best-paying job opportunities exist in the region.

P a g e | 37 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

Figure 27 shows wages and employment by occupation in relation to the projected job growth and replacement needs as a way of identifying occupation groups with the highest paying jobs and the greatest future demand for workers. Viewed in this context, nearly all occupation groups are projected to grow and have a significant number of job opportunities due to growth and replacement needs. The presence of corporate headquarters and related administrative and R&D operations in Cook County and the region probably accounts for the relatively large number of management, computer and mathematical, and business and financial operations occupations, as well as higher annual wage levels.

Figure 27: Occupational Employment, Annual Median Wages and Projected Job Openings Due to Growth or Replacement Needs - Cook County, Illinois, 2012-2022

Source: Illinois Department of Employment Security, Labor Market Information Unit, 2014.

P a g e | 38 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

Meeting the Needs of Business and Industry

Workforce Characteristics

As alluded to earlier in this report, the two most important features that will have far reaching impacts on the business community and educational institutions are growing racial and ethnic diversity and the aging of the workforce. While this is a common trend in most metropolitan areas around the country, it presents some unique challenges and opportunities for the Oakton Community College district, as well as the metropolitan area. In addition to meeting the education and training demands caused by structural changes in the regional economy brought on by globalization and technological advances, businesses and educational institutions will need to adjust their approaches to meet the needs of more diverse and aging workforce. This could affect anything from reshaping outreach and programs which address linguistic or cultural barriers; developing new and innovative approaches; reversing the decline in youth labor force participation; or helping older displaced workers transition to new careers.

As Figure 28 shows, the racial composition of Cook County employment has continued the long-term trend of an increasing proportion of Non-white minorities. These groups collectively increased by 4.8% between 2010 and 2014. This is reflective of overall population trends which have shown a slow but steady decline in the White population, coupled with a steady increase of most Non-white minorities. Black or African- American employment accounted for most of this growth, increasing by over 26,000 jobs. However, it

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies, Longitudinal Employment Household Dynamics, 2016

P a g e | 39 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

should be noted that employment among this group declined by nearly 88,000 jobs from 2000 to 2010. Thus, much of the increase is attributed to the recovery as opposed to new job growth.

Although employment among the Asian group experienced a slight decreased between 2010 and 2014 (0.6%), this group had a gain of 8.7% or 13,573 jobs in the previous decade (2000-2010). Employment among those that identify themselves as being of two or more races, although a relatively smaller share of the total employment (1.2%), is the only group that has had a consistent growth trend since 2000.

The composition of the regional workforce is also becoming more ethnically diverse. Following the general population trends, Hispanics have been the fastest growing ethnic group in terms of employment, accounting for 16.4% of total employment in 2014. Between 2000 and 2014, the Hispanic employment grew 9.1% while Non-Hispanic employment decreased by 10.6%. Since Hispanics are classified by the U.S.

Census Bureau as an ethnic designation, they may identify themselves any racial group. The vast majority of Hispanics in Cook County (87.8%) identified themselves as being “White Alone” as their race (Figure 29). Those identifying as “Black or African American Alone” made up only 3.6% of the employed Hispanics in 2014, but this category increased by 10.9% between 2010 and 2014 and is comparable to the employment growth rate of the White Alone-Hispanic group (10.8% growth). This roughly comports to the racial identification of the overall Hispanic population.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies, Longitudinal Employment Household Dynamics, 2016

P a g e | 40 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

A second, and equally important characteristic of the demographic transformation of the District’s workforce, is the aging of workers and a looming potential shortage of younger workers. This is reflected in both the current proportion of the employed population under the age of 25 years (10.7%) and the relatively greater share that at are either at or past the traditional retirement age or are on the cusp of that occasion (i.e. 21.9% of workers are 55 years of age and older). The trends in Figure 30 show steep declines of employment between 2000 and 2010 for those under 25 years of age, as well as those between the ages of 25 and 44 years old. At the same time, employment in the 55 years of age and older category showed double digit growth. These findings corroborate the effects of the slowing population growth, as well as the rapid decline in labor force participation especially among younger population groups.

Figure 30: Employment by Age Group, Cook County, Illinois, 2010-2014

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies, Longitudinal Employment Household Dynamics, 2016

These trends present community colleges with several challenges going forward. The first is recruiting out of a smaller pool of younger people who need training that will give them entry to the labor force. The second group are those that are underemployed and need training to move into better paying and more productive jobs. Finally, they will also have to serve the continuing education or re-training needs of older workers to allow them to move up in their current careers or prepare them new careers that will keep them gainfully employed.

P a g e | 41 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

Current Demand for Workers

The real-time demand for workers, as well as the required skills, credentials and other attributes can now be assessed through web-based technologies that scan millions of job and applicant postings on popular sites such as Monster, SimplyHired, and Indeed or posted by various state and local employment bureaus. Labor Insight™, developed by Burning Glass Technologies, is one such tools for measuring current demand for workers across a broad variety of industries and occupations. While some employers do not post job listings on public job sites, it does give a sense of the types of jobs available within the Oakton Community College District. A complete listing will be provided separately in the form of an Excel workbook.

The Certifications featured in Table 8 were found within the job ads and ranked according to the number of postings in which they appeared. Registered Nurses and other healthcare related certifications appeared most frequently. This is not surprising as the healthcare sector has exhibited substantial job growth and a number of major hospitals and clinics are located in the region. Certifications for truck drivers and couriers are also featured prominently as are credential related to various white collar professions such as project management and information technology.

Table 8: Required Certification Listed in Job Posting, Cook County, Illinois (June, 2016)

Certification Listed Total Citations Registered Nurse 713 CDL Class A 548 First Aid CPR AED 398 Certified Public Accountant (CPA) 309 Certified Nursing Assistant 137 Commercial Driver's License 135 Basic Cardiac Life Support Certification 92 Certified Information Systems Auditor (CISA) 90 Project Management Certification (E.G. PMP) 85 Certified Medical Assistant 83 Servsafe 79 Automotive Service Excellence (ASE) Certification 73 Certified Information Systems Security Professional (CISSP) 73 Critical Care Registered Nurse (CCRN) 69 Professional In Human Resources 58

Source: Labor InsightTM, Burning Glass Technologies, 2016.

P a g e | 42 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

The top occupations shown in Table 9 clearly comport to the most popular job certifications (Table 20). In addition to being indicative of regional demand, the postings for Truck Drivers, Registered Nurses and other healthcare professionals also reflects a strong nationwide demand as well as competition for individuals with the requisite skills and certifications. This represents a significant opportunity for community colleges as many of these jobs require certifications or degrees that are already being offered by these institutions. This is also true of many of the other white-collar professional and service occupations, such as Customer Service Representatives, Administrative Assistants and various IT, financial and Human Resources Specialists.

Table 9: Top Occupations by Number of Job Postings, Cook County, Illinois (June, 2016)

Top Occupations Total Job Postings Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers 1,089 Registered Nurses 875 Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Not Technical and Scientific Products 776 Retail Salespersons 711 Software Developers, Applications 638 Customer Service Representatives 574 Computer Occupations, All Other 558 Accountants and Auditors 454 Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks 406 Managers, All Other 405 First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers 397 Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive 349 Human Resources Specialists 265 Light Truck or Delivery Services Drivers 225 Security Guards 224

Source: Burning Glass, Labor InsightTM, 2016.

P a g e | 43 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

The industry breakdown of job posting closely reflects those that have the greatest presence and the highest employment growth in the region (Table 21). These include healthcare, education, transportation, and business and professional services. Other important sectors include retailing, restaurants, hospitality and recreation and leisure services. It is also interesting to note that the banking and insurance industries also ranked near the top of the list for the number of job opening. Since these industries experienced considerable job losses during the last recession and have struggled since then, this surge in job postings may be a sign that a turnaround is underway.

Table 10: Top Industries by Number of Job Postings, Cook County, Illinois (June, 2016)

Top Industries Total Job Postings General Medical and Surgical Hospitals 840 Insurance Carriers 813 Depository Credit Intermediation 528 Restaurants and Other Eating Places 512 Colleges, Universities, and Professional Schools 467 Business Support Services 465 Elementary and Secondary Schools 336 General Freight Trucking 319 Health and Personal Care Stores 292 Department Stores 262 Investigation and Security Services 244 Traveler Accommodation 235 Special Food Services 233 Grocery and Related Product Merchant Wholesalers 231 Other Amusement and Recreation Industries 223

Source: Labor InsightTM, Burning Glass, 2016.

P a g e | 44 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

When analyzing the top skills requested by employers, duplication very evident as most job ads list multiple skill-sets (Table 11). It gives a sense of the kinds of skills that employers are seeking in new employees, although it is difficult to assess how and to what degree employers evaluate these skills (i.e. are they based on the applicant’s on-the-job experience, credentials obtained, or pre-employment testing). However, it is clear that “soft-skills” or “people skills” such as customer service or contact, sales and relationship building are highly valued for a wide range of jobs. These skills are more value-oriented, but educational programs could help to instill values such as ethics and professionalism when dealing with others. Furthermore, some aspects of customer service or sales also involve the use of more technology (i.e. social media marketing), so community colleges can capture additional students by offering more credentialed courses for this sector.

Table 11: Top Skills by Number of Job Openings, Cook County, Illinois (June, 2016)

Top Skills Total Citations Customer Service 2,644 Sales 1,976 Scheduling 1,865 Building Relationships 1,819 Budgeting 1,687 Project Management 1,629 Filing 1,552 Accounting 1,275 Supervisory Skills 1,227 Retail Setting 1,096 Customer Contact 1,054 Structured Query Language (SQL) 947 Staff Management 818 Data Entry 798 Mathematics 768

Source: Burning Glass, Labor InsightTM, 2016.

P a g e | 45 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

Matching Local Talent with Local Jobs

Worker commuting patterns can be indicators of the true size and scope of the regional labor markets, and in metropolitan environments they can indicate the degree of economic interdependency with the surrounding region. An area’s ability to pursue economic development depends in part on the supply and mobility of workers. Matching local talent with local jobs is not easily done in a labor market as large, mobile and diverse as the Chicago region. The larger communities within the Oakton Community College District (Des Plaines, Evanston, Glenview and Skokie) are major regional business centers, employing significantly more workers than are living within the District. At the same time, many District residents commute to jobs in the surrounding metropolitan area. Although this situation presents workers and employers tremendous opportunities for employment, as well as talent acquisition, it also creates considerable challenges for educational institutions in determining the types training or degree programs to offer. Nevertheless, understanding overall trends in workers commuting patterns, location of regional centers of business activity and the projected employment demand for key industries and occupations provide important insights into how the community college system can best position itself to serve the needs of future students and the business community.

Commuting patterns are best described as worker outflow (employed residents in a specified area who work outside the area) and worker inflow (workers living in other areas but employed in a specified area). The regional labor force consists of those who live in the Oakton Community College District but are employed in the surrounding areas, those who are employed in the District but live elsewhere, and those who both live and work in the District. Labor market data for the District indicates a substantial and growing number of workers commute to jobs outside the District to jobs in the nearby region. In 2014, out of 207,231 workers living in the Oakton Community College District, 64,190 actually lived and worked within the District while 143,041 commuted out of the District, resulting in a net inflow of 60,061 to jobs in the surrounding areas. Yet inflow has decreased by more than 20,000 workers over the last decade (Table 12).

Table 12: Commuter Inflow/Outflow, Oakton Community College District, 2002 – 2014

Oakton Community College Labor Market 2014 2010 2006 2002 (Primary Jobs) Count Share Count Share Count Share Count Share Employed in the Selection Area 267,292 100.0% 258,816 100.0% 265,459 100.0% 275,241 100.0% Living in the Selection Area 207,231 77.5% 193,138 74.6% 189,112 71.2% 193,709 70.4% Net Job Inflow (+) or Outflow (-) 60,061 - 65,678 - 76,347 - 81,532 - Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Local Employment Dynamics, 2016.

P a g e | 46 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

An examination of the educational attainment characteristics of District residents that work reveal some troubling trends but also reveal several opportunities for higher education institutions. Although those with less than a high school education represented 7.8% of workers, their numbers have increased by nearly 30.0% between 2010 and 2014. At the same time, high school graduates and those with some college or and Associate level degree grew by 25.7% and 16.3%, respectively. Resident workers with a Bachelor's degree or an advanced degree actually declined by 5.7% (Table 13).

Table 13: Education Attainment of Resident Workers, Oakton College District, 2010 – 2014

2014 2010 Change 2010-2014 Jobs by Worker Educational Attainment Count Share Count Share Count Share Less than high school 16,260 7.8% 12,514 6.5% 3,746 29.9% High school or equivalent, no college 33,926 16.4% 26,984 14.0% 6,942 25.7% Some college or Associate degree 47,904 23.1% 41,194 21.3% 6,710 16.3% Bachelor's degree or advanced degree 71,615 34.6% 75,930 39.3% -4,315 -5.7% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Local Employment Dynamics, Home Area Profile, 2016.

While the impact on employers may be ameliorated by the size and diversity of the surrounding labor market (and in fact may be one of the factors that has led to the increasing inflow of workers from outside the district), it presents an opportunity for Oakton Community College to expand and promote its adult education and GED program as this data clearly suggests a need. The growth in the number of high school graduates also indicates a growing market for the College’s degree and certificate programs.

DON’T DISMISS MOOCS YET

While the market for Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) may not have lived up to its original hype, a recent report says there is much more room for growth. The research firm Markets and Markets predicts that by 2020 MOOCs will grow to be an $8.5 billion industry, up from $1.83 billion today. While further expansion will require better technology, the firm believes that MOOCs are well positioned to meet the global demand for education that cannot be met by developing new physical campuses.11

For discussion While much of traditional higher education seems skeptical of MOOCs, venture capitalists are pouring millions of dollars into this pedagogic approach. If investors seem to think that there is a market for MOOCs, should your institution rethink its current position about them? Could MOOCs one day be an academically productive—and profitable—channel for serving some of your students?

Source: SCUP 2016.

P a g e | 47 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

Occupations

Occupational employment characteristics both influence and are influenced by the industrial makeup of the regional economy, population trends, and education attainment. The skills, aptitudes, and competence of the workforce govern, to a large degree, the types of business activities that develop or are attracted to a region. The Oakton Community College district, as well as the metropolitan area, has a long standing specialization in professional, technical and business services, education, healthcare, and financial services which is reflected in the composition of its workforce. Accordingly, professional, technical and sales and office support occupations dominate both the District and the surrounding region, combined with a growing number of management, business operation and financial jobs, these groups account for over 60% of total employment (Table 14). Service occupations include a wide variety of high- skilled/high-wage jobs along with low-skilled/low-wage jobs. It is one of the fastest growing occupational groups in the region and warrant close attention as many of the mid-skilled and higher-skilled jobs in the group often require some form of post-secondary training or certifications that currently are or could be provided by community colleges (e.g. public safety or security, healthcare support staff, or grounds keeping and building maintenance occupations).

Although Production, Transportation and Material Moving occupations represent a significant portion of the total employment picture, their numbers are declining, mostly as a consequence of the economic and technological forces that are reshaping the manufacturing sector. The same holds true for construction, extraction and maintenance occupations. Even so, the demand for workers within these groups is projected to remain strong through the next decade as retirements continue to surge.

Table 14. Employment by Major Occupational Group, Cook County, Illinois

Percent of Total Percent Employment Cook County, Illinois Employment Change Major Occupation Group 2010 2016 2010 2016 2010-2016 Employment, Civilian Total 2,360,871 2,355,706 100.0 100.0 -0.2 Management, Business, & Financial Operations 364,027 366,843 15.4 15.6 0.8 Professional & Related 515,409 533,861 21.8 22.7 3.6 Sales & Office 591,983 563,605 25.1 23.9 -4.8 Service 421,889 445,582 17.9 18.9 5.6 Farming, Fishing, & Forestry 2,598 3,092 0.1 0.1 19.0 Construction, Extraction, & Maintenance 152,129 139,544 6.4 5.9 -8.3 Production, Transportation, & Material Moving 312,836 303,179 13.3 12.9 -3.1

Source: EASI Analytics, Inc., 2016.

P a g e | 48 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

Industries

Industry employment allocates jobs according to the primary products or services of the businesses, while the data previously presented on occupations are based on what the role or type of work performed by an employee within the business. Health Care & Social Assistance is the largest single industry sector in Cook County accounting for 14.1% of total employment in 2016. It also has the distinction of being the fastest growing industry sector having added more than 19,000 jobs between 2010 and 2016, a 6.5% increase (Table 15). Educational Services also ranks highly in terms of employment share and job growth with a variety of teaching and related support positions driving the demand. Although Manufacturing has lost jobs and employment share, it remains an important industry sector in Cook County. Advanced manufacturing technologies and processes have made the workforce more efficient and the workplace more productive. These changes have resulted in fewer total jobs in the industry but higher wages for the remaining skilled workers.

Table 15: Employment by Major Industry Group, Cook County, Illinois

Percent of Total Percent Employment Cook County, Illinois Employment Change Major Industry Group 2010 2016 2010 2016 2010-2016 Employment, Civilian Total 2,360,871 2,355,706 100.0 100.0 -0.2 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 3,430 3,243 0.1 0.1 -5.5 Mining, Quarrying and Oil and Gas Extraction 747 804 0.0 0.0 7.6 Construction 113,411 105,078 4.8 4.5 -7.3 Manufacturing 255,975 237,387 10.8 10.1 -7.3 Wholesale Trade 67,016 60,740 2.8 2.6 -9.4 Retail Trade 232,568 236,132 9.9 10.0 1.5 Transportation and Warehousing 138,255 138,481 5.9 5.9 0.2 Utilities 11,291 10,871 0.5 0.5 -3.7 Information 57,888 52,999 2.5 2.2 -8.4 Finance and Insurance 150,319 134,368 6.4 5.7 -10.6 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 48,374 45,003 2.0 1.9 -7.0 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 199,605 208,520 8.5 8.9 4.5 Management of Companies and Enterprises 3,213 2,959 0.1 0.1 -7.9 Administrative and Support and Waste Mgt. Services 112,318 114,176 4.8 4.8 1.7 Educational Services 217,027 226,610 9.2 9.6 4.4 Health Care and Social Assistance 312,132 331,491 13.2 14.1 6.2 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 52,925 53,262 2.2 2.3 0.6 Accommodation and Food Services, etc. 173,010 182,459 7.3 7.7 5.5 Other Services 120,799 123,176 5.1 5.2 2.0 Public Administration 90,568 87,947 3.8 3.7 -2.9 Source: EASI Analytics, Inc., 2016.

P a g e | 49 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

Though it accounts for only 8.9% of total employment, the Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services sector is one of the fastest growing in the region. Driven by a critical mass of corporate headquarters, back office and R&D facilities that benefit from the regions higher education institution, talented workforce and global connectivity, this sector continues to gain strength despite serious cutbacks during the past recession. This contrasts with several related industry sectors (Finance and Insurance, Real Estate and Rental and Leasing, and Management of Companies and Enterprises) that were not only severely impacted during the recession, but continue to experience job losses due to either industry restructuring, local market conditions or automation. Retail Trade and Accommodation and Food Services are also significant employment sectors and have recovered many of the jobs they shed during the past recession. However, they remain vulnerable to fluctuations in consumer spending and the overall health of the local economy. In addition, many of the jobs they create are either part-time or seasonal and (outside of managerial positions) offer little opportunity for advancement or acquiring marketable skills or experience.

STATES ON THE REBOUND?

Analysis by the Pew Charitable Trusts shows that 41 states saw economic growth in 2014 compared to 2013. Pew looked at GDP numbers from the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis. Manufacturing drives a lot of the growth. Some states also report growth in the professional, scientific, and technical services sectors.

For discussion Stronger state economies may have a positive effect on post-secondary education in general, but when economic times are good some potential students elect to enter the workforce instead of going to college. Another effect might be greater legislative allocations of financial support for higher education, but many competing priorities for state spending may keep state support for universities in check in the near term.

Source: SCUP, 2015.

Location Quotients

Specializations or concentrations of related industries are a widely recognized economic development phenomenon and play an important role in promoting and maintaining the vitality of cities, regions and states. Location quotients (LQ) are one of several methodological tools used in research to quantify and compare concentrations of industries in a particular area to another and are critical for assessing an area's economic strengths and weaknesses. Location quotients are especially useful in identifying both the

P a g e | 50 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

distinguishing industries and also the commonalities between regional economies. They can serve to confirm the intuitively obvious (e.g. Cook County’s health care and social services concentration) and help identify emerging trends as economies change, grow and diversify (such as the development of the transportation and warehousing industry in the region). If the LQ is 1.0, that industry has the same share of employment as the U.S. If the LQ is greater than 1.0, it has a greater share of local area employment than the national average, and if less than 1.0, a smaller share. For example, the LQ for the entertainment industry in Los Angeles, California is well above 1.0 because of the high concentration of employment in that sector.

Figure 31: Change in Employment Concentration – Cook County, IL (2010-2016)

Source: EASI Analytics, Inc. 2016

Figure 31 graphically displays the industry employment concentrations in Cook County between 2010 and 2016. The horizontal axis represents the location quotient for each industry in 2016, while the vertical axis represents the change in the location quotient over time. The size of the bubbles corresponds to the industry employment in 2016. The thick black lines delineate the graph into four quadrants based on the

P a g e | 51 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

relative concentration of industry employment (i.e. whether the LQ is above or below 1.0) and the change in employment concentration over time (whether the LQ increased or decreased over time).

The upper right-hand quadrant includes those industries that have high concentrations of employment (LQ) and are growing stronger. Companies that are similarly structured tend to benefit in clusters due to economies of scale. These industries, when high in employment, will continue to have high demand for workers as they are considered high-performing. The Professional, Scientific and Technical Services sectors is a prime example. The sector has a significant share of total employment (8.9% in 2016), a high LQ (1.3) and has added over 8,900 jobs since 2010. Transportation and Warehousing has a high LQ (more than 1.4 times the national average). However, it has a relatively low employment base and added only 226 jobs between 2010 and 2016. Educational Services, which includes Oakton Community College and all Private/Public Elementary and Secondary School employment, is also growing and could grow further depending on growth in the school-age population and the continuing education needs of the working- age population.

The lower right-hand quadrant includes those industries that have high concentrations of employment (LQ greater than 1.0) but are declining in concentration. These include industries that have a strong presence in the region but have recently weakened in comparison to national employment growth. While several of these industries have added jobs between 2010 and 2016, such as Administrative, Support and Waste Services, their growth was slower in comparison to national trends. Others, especially the Finance and Insurance sector, have continued to suffer employment losses even as employment has rebounded elsewhere. Some of these industries have the potential to recover or strengthen their presence in the region but further research would be required to assess the prospects.

The upper left-hand quadrant represents those industries with a relatively minor employment concentration but with a growing presence in Cook County. Retail Trade is the only industry represented in this quadrant. It should be noted that the retail sector in Cook County is only part of a much larger and very dynamic market and therefore its employment concentration really understates its impact on the region. This sector’s recent job growth can largely be attributed to its recovery following the past recession.

The lower left-hand quadrant represents those industries that have a relatively small and declining presence in the region. Some industries, such as Manufacturing, Construction and Wholesale Trade have fallen into this category because of a slow recovery following the past recession combined with the effects

P a g e | 52 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

of restructuring within these industries. Employment trends in Public Administration are driven to a large degree by fiscal considerations which, in many cases, has led to consolidations and outsourcing to achieve greater cost-efficiencies in delivering their services. Given the recent wave of capital investments by Public Utilities in their generation and distribution infrastructure, it would seem that they have growth potential but for some reason it has not yet resulted in significant job growth.

Determining Future Demand

The Illinois Department of Employment Security (IDES) periodically issues forecasts of job opening for specific occupations based on assumptions about future job creation resulting from economic growth and replacement needs along with demographic trends and expected turnover caused by workers changing jobs or careers, relocating or other voluntary or involuntary separations. When combined with information on local annual wages and national information on the typical education, work experience and on-the-job training, the IDES information is helpful for educational institutions when planning for future degree and certificate programs, as well as other technical and professional training. Table 16 on the next page shows the occupations that typically require and Associate level or comparable degree to obtain employment located on the next page. They are ranked according to the anticipated number of annual average job openings between 2012 through 2022. Most of the top occupations in terms of job opening are in health care related fields, accounting for nearly 30% of those listed. Various types of engineering technicians make up the second largest group and account for many of the higher paying positions.

P a g e | 53 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

Table 16: Projected Job Openings Job Openings in Occupations that Typically Require an Associate’s Degree, Cook County, Illinois (2012 -2022)

Job Openings due to Work Experience Typical on-the- 2015 Median Occupation Title Growth and Replacement in a Related job Training Annual Wage Needs (Annual Average) Occupation Medical & Clinical Lab Technicians 106 None None $38,970 Dental Hygienists 98 None None $72,330 Web Developers 72 None None $64,970 Radiologic Technologists 70 None None $56,670 Physical Therapist Assistants 66 None None $55,170 HR Assistants, Except Payroll 56 None None $38,100 Computer Network Support Specialists 47 None None $62,250 Respiratory Therapists 45 None None $57,790 Diagnostic Medical Sonographers 42 None None $68,970 Electrical & Electronic Engineering Technicians 39 None None $61,130 Chemical Technicians 36 None M $44,660 Veterinary Technologists & Technicians 33 None None $31,800 Occupational Therapist Assistants 33 None None $57,870 Life/Physical/Social Science Technicians, All 30 None None $45,300 Other Air Traffic Controllers 29 None L $122,950 Medical Equipment Repairers 27 None M $46,340 Engineering Technicians, Except Drafters, All 26 None None $61,260 Other Cardiovascular Technologists & Technicians 23 None None $54,880 Environmental Science & Protection 20 None None $43,030 Technicians Architectural & Civil Drafters 19 None None $50,710 Civil Engineering Technicians 19 None None $49,260 Broadcast Technicians 18 None S $37,490 Mechanical Engineering Technicians 17 None None $53,910 Agricultural & Food Science Technicians 12 None M $36,480 Industrial Engineering Technicians 10 None None $53,780 Morticians/Undertakers/Funeral Directors 10 None L $48,490 Avionics Technicians 9 None None $58,540 Mechanical Drafters 8 None None $53,520 Environmental Engineering Technicians 8 None None $48,650 Magnetic Resonance Imaging Technicians 8 < 5 years None $67,720 Desktop Publishers 8 None S $39,840 Electro-Mechanical Technicians 7 None None $53,340 Electrical & Electronics Drafters 6 None None $59,520 Drafters, All Other 5 None None $49,650 Aerospace Engineering & Operations 3 None None $66,180 Technicians Respiratory Therapy Technicians 3 None None $48,490

S = Short-term on-the-job training. M = Moderate-term on-the-job training. L = Long-term on-the-job training. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Illinois Department of Employment Security, 2016.

P a g e | 54 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

IS THIS THE AGE OF THE “GIG” ECONOMY?

Remember when people were predicting that “regular” jobs would disappear and most workers would become free agents? While the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that some 15.5 million Americans are self- employed, another study found that no fewer than 53 million Americans freelance. Regardless of the numbers, freelancing is growing, and freelancers constitute a significant portion of the U.S. workforce—34 percent according to the second study.

For discussion Strategically, how can your institution best leverage freelance talent? In terms of the institutional workforce, more than half of today’s professoriate is made up of contingent faculty (part/full time, non-tenure track). How well has your institution changed faculty workloads, promotion policies, and factors like committee work to adapt to this new reality? How should your institution prepare for hiring more freelancers in other capacities in the coming years? If more future workers are going to work for themselves, is your institution doing all that it should to prepare its students to be entrepreneurial?

Source: SCUP, 2016.

P a g e | 55 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

Future Oakton Students

School Inventory

The Oakton Community College district overlaps five high school districts: Evanston Township HSD 202, Maine Township HSD 207, New Trier Township HSD 203, Niles Township HSD 219 and Northfield Township HSD 225. There is a very small part of Township HSD 214 that overlaps the college district in the area of Des Plaines, but is not included in this report. However, all of these districts are eligible to attend Oakton at the in-district tuition rate. These districts are the primary resource for new enrollments, totaling

There were 23,491 students enrolled in the five high school districts in the 2016 school year. In 2006 there were 23,730 students enrolled, representing a mere 1% drop. However, there has been an increase in those enrolled in the public elementary districts. In 2006 there were 47,240 enrolled in K-8, while in 2016 there were 50,125 students representing a 6.1% increase or 2,885 additional students. Many districts are seeing drops in elementary grades overall, so this is good news to have continued numbers of students coming into the high schools.

The national estimate for home schooling in 2011 is 3.4% of school aged children13, making the estimate in the Oakton district approximately 3,500 additional students with the percentage continuing to rise.

DEMOGRAPHICS OF TOMORROW’S STUDENTS

Institutions must prepare to serve a different mix of students in the years to come. The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) projects that while enrollments of students aged 18 to 24 will increase 10 percent between 2010 and 2021, enrollments of 25- to 34-year-olds will increase 20 percent, and enrollments of students 35 and older will increase 32 percent. And while the NCES anticipates a four percent increase in White students in that same time frame, it projects that ranks of Black and Hispanic college students will increase 25 percent and 42 percent respectively.

More students—and university employees—will be Millennials born from roughly 1980 to the mid-1990s. Outnumbering Baby Boomers by some 11 million people, Millennials are 43 percent non-White. “Generation Y”, as they are also known, are said to be tech savvy, close to their parents, and comfortable with diversity. When they get to college, most expect robust access to the latest technology as well as more personalized transactions and may be less inclined to support their alma mater financially.

Source: SCUP 2016.

13 Redford, J., Battle, D., and Bielick, S. (2016). Homeschooling in the United States: 2012 (NCES 2016-096). National Center for Education Statistics, Institute of Education Sciences, U.S. Department of Education. Washington, DC.

P a g e | 56 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

School Indicators PERSISTENT POVERTY Table 17 on the next page identifies schools in the Oakton AMONG CHILDREN District and their levels of students who are Limited English Proficient (LEP), are low income, mobility rates, and PARCC Statistics from Child Trends show that poverty is pervasive among American proportion of students ready to move on to the next level. youth. Nearly half (48%) of the nation’s These are not all indicators available about these schools but infants and toddlers live in families whose incomes are less than twice the are the most utilized. However, the PARCC testing has come federal poverty line ($23,550 a year for under a lot of scrutiny as it was the first school year it was a family of four); 25% live in families below that line, and 13% live in deep implemented after discontinuing the PSAE testing. The Illinois poverty, in families whose income is State Board of Education has determined to no longer provide half or less than the federal poverty line. Moreover, two-thirds (66%) of the PARCC testing for High Schools in favor of the SAT Black and Latino children live in low- beginning in the 2016-17 school year. Any school that has a income households. Risks of poverty include poor nutrition, chronic health rate greater than the statewide average is highlighted in red. conditions, and disproportionate exposure to risks that can impair brain English Learners. The Illinois average for those requiring development. additional English learning is 11%. For those schools For discussion overlapping the Oakton district there are 48 out of 104 that Future students from poor families have a higher proportion of students, the highest being the may need more help learning about Orchard Place Elementary school in the Des Plaines CCSD #62 the benefits of college, applying for college, affording a higher education, of 65%. and completing college-level work. They may also need to work to support Low Income. The best available proxy for students from low their parents and siblings. From income families is the number that qualify for Free or Reduced student aid policies to developmental educational programs to family- Lunch. These estimates are higher than regular poverty friendly practices—and beyond— measures since the lunch program is more liberal on the institutions will need to make sure that they have the infrastructure in place income requirements to qualify. These figures are also necessary to support students from aggregated based upon the residential population, not the impoverished backgrounds. students enrolled, so the percentages may be higher due to Source: SCUP. students being home-schooled, attending special schools etc. The overall rate for the districts overlapping Oakton is 25% that qualify, or 17,500 students, half of the statewide rate of 50% in 2016.

Mobility. When students are being shuffled from school-to-school their performance can suffer greatly as they try to adapt to different cultures and pedagogy. The statewide mobility rate is 12% and there are

P a g e | 57 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

only ten schools that have higher mobility rates that overlap Oakton’s district. The Stevenson school in the East Maine School District #63 has the highest mobility rate of 27%.

Table 17: High School Indicators

2016 District Low Income Grades PARCC Enrollment New Trier Township HS Northfield 966 3.0% 9 57.6% Maine South High School 2,390 8.0% 9-12 43.4% Glenbrook North High School 2,062 7.0% 9-12 39.9% Maine East High School 1,930 46.0% 9-12 36.9% Niles West High School 2,577 31.0% 9-12 36.5% Maine West High School 2,054 39.0% 9-12 35.7% Niles North High School 2,149 34.0% 9-12 35.6% Illinois -- 50.0% All 33.0% Evanston Township High School 3,322 40.0% 9-12 32.5% Glenbrook South High School 3,016 21.0% 9-12 19.9% New Trier Township HS Winnetka 3,025 3.0% 10-12 Unknown

Source: Illinois State Board of Education, Report Card Data, 2016

Upward Grade Level Transition

The PARCC has now been implemented for the second year (2015-2016) and the results are mixed throughout the state. The statewide average in 2016 is 33% of students being ready to transition to the next grade level. As shown in Table 17, New Trier Township High School in Northfield achieved the highest PARCC score of 57.6% of their 9th graders ready to move into 10th grade. Only Evanston and Glenbrook fell below the statewide average (listed in Table 18).

P a g e | 58 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

FAFSA Applications

The statewide average for completing the FAFSA applications is 61.3%. The high school districts overlapping Oakton’s district the FAFSA completions range from 42.5% at New Trier Township HS Winnetka to a high of 69.8% at the Niles north High School. High completion rates are also an indicator of schools working effectively with students to consider college and file the application. Overall, 3,489 or 61.3% of all the seniors completed their applications (see Figure 32).

Figure 32: FAFSA Completions

COMPLETED % COMPLETED 600 80.0%

70.0% 489 500 472

435 60.0% 410 405 400 367 50.0% 316 309 300 286 40.0%

30.0% 200

20.0%

100 10.0%

0 0.0% New Trier Glenbrook Maine West Glenbrook Maine Evanston Niles West Maine East Niles North Township H North High High School South High South High Twp High High School High School High School S Winnetka School School School School

Source: Illinois Student Assistance Commission, FAFSA Completion Data, Through August 2016

P a g e | 59 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

Interesting Trends

FIVE GAME-CHANGING PRACTICES IN PEDAGOGY

An insightful list of pedagogies that have game-changing potential comes from a collaboration between the Institute of Educational Technology at the Open University and the Center for Technology in Learning at SRI International’s Leading the list were these five practices:

 Crossover learning. Learning in settings like museums that links to classroom lessons.  Learning through argumentation. Using scientific methods of argument to advance student understanding.  Incidental learning. Unplanned or unintentional learning.  Context-based learning. Expanding students’ understanding of context beyond the classroom to broaden learning.  Computational thinking. Applying principles like pattern recognition and abstraction to enhance learning.

As researchers broaden our understanding of effective learning methodologies, is your institution broadening the palette of pedagogies that it draws from? How can instructors at your institution learn about and adopt different techniques?

Source: SCUP 2016.

DROP AND GIVE ME HTML5!

Boot camps—intensive, short-term education courses—are becoming an acceptable alternative to traditional courses, bolstered by strong demand from both employers and students. Proliferating in private industry, they are also being piloted by a few universities. Policy makers are experimenting with financial aid for boot camp students. Certificates for completing boot camps may fuel rethinking of educational credentials.

For discussion If employers can send employees to intensive 10-week courses leading to a certificate, will that erode demand for traditional three-credit, semester-long courses—and degrees built on that model? Can universities successfully adopt boot camp-style pedagogy or partner to offer this modality?

Source: SCUP 2016.

P a g e | 60 OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN - 2016

TEXTBOOK RENTALS ON THE RISE

A study last year by the U.S. PIRG Education Fund finds that nearly two-thirds (65 percent) of college students decided not to buy a textbook based on cost. Textbook rentals are on the rise. Textbook publishers are developing new approaches to the textbook, including online books and personalized course materials.

Meanwhile, developers continue to produce more free and openly licensed open educational resources (OER), which are gaining more traction in classroom use. Meanwhile, too, bricks-and-mortar campus bookstores are evolving to be social hubs versus merely places where you buy physical books, or are morphing online, or are being outsourced—or are disappearing altogether.

Source: SCUP.

P a g e | 61