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Alerts Ethiopia Burundi South Sudan EARLY WARNING/EARLY ACTION JAN-FEB 2016 EAST AFRICA EARLY WARNING REPORT JAN-FEB 2016 $530,000,000 in Regional Programming Assisting over 16,500,000 Children In 9 Countries With more than 6300 Staff ALERTS ETHIOPIA DROUGHT BURUNDI ESSENTIAL SERVICES DELIVERY SOUTH SUDAN CONFLICT FOOD INSECURITY EARLY WARNING/EARLY ACTION JAN-FEB 2016 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS BURUNDI INSTABILITY—WORSENING ETHIOPIA DROUGHT—NSC KENYA STABLE—IMPROVED RWANDA STABLE—NSC SOMALIA COMPLEX—NSC S. SUDAN COMPLEX—NSC SUDAN COMPLEX—NSC TANZANIA STABLE—IMPROVED UGANDA FOOD INSECURITY—WORSEING SEVERITY INDEX NSC= NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE METHODOLOGY Information for this Early Warning/Early Action document is gathered from varying sources through desk top assessments, per- sonal interviews and anecdotal understanding of humanitarian contexts throughout the region. This document is produced monthly and has been developed to provide a snap shot of important information for World Vision managers to promote and track trends relevant to their work. The main goal of this document is to facilitate World Vision manager’s decision making on next steps towards promoting a response, tracking a response or closing a response. All references for information can be supplied upon request, but have not been included here due to space constraints. In general, information is gleaned from World Vision data, UNHCR, IOM, WFP, UNOCHA, UNICEF and other partners existing reports as and when appropriate. EARLY WARNING/EARLY ACTION JAN-FEB 2016 BURUNDI $16.6 M USD in PROGRAMMING 188 STAFF 18 OFFICES IN 7 PROVINCES 40,048 CHILDREN ASSESSED MONTHLY INSTABILITY—WORSENING Malnutrition levels have risen with current food insecurity and deterioration in health services; this trend is projected to continue as the causes are mainly structural. The education system will witness a deterioration in terms of performance, facilities and attendance as donors close taps on support to social programs. The ongoing food insecurity and political tensions in the country will continue to contribution to poor enrolment, absenteeism and poor performance over the coming months. Like other sectors, health will be negatively affected by the country economy deterioration as results of donor disengagement to support the country. Some health programs may be suspended, hence endangering lives. El Nino effects are expected to be felt in season B (February-June) which may bring about disease outbreak such cholera and waterborne diseases. Negative coping mechanisms occasioned by political and economic hardships are likely to lead to an errosion in the productive assets; farming inputs such as seeds and tools likely to be limited in quality and quantity over the next planting season; poor crop situation likely to result in the coming months. Ongoing harvest season projected to bring improvenetns in food security situation for households not affected by political turmoil. However, increases in prices of staple foods, trade disruptions between neighboring con- tries will continue to lead to negative food security outcomes for hundreds of thousands over the coming months. No influx of refugees into Burundi reported. The reintegration of Burundian returnees is ongoing with ten- sions reported between them and host community. Over 217,000 Burundians are seeking refuge in the neighboring countries of Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda and DRC. Internally displaced estimated at about 15,000; this number is however difficult to verify. Internal displacement trends likely to be affected by the outcome of the ongoing peace talks. The crisis has subsided with the commencement of AU led dialogue in Uganda and Tanzania. However, disa- greements over opposition representation and agenda will continue to cause tensions within Burundi over the coming months. The United Nations Security Council, the AU and EAC have ramped up efforts to prevent the further deterioration of the situation. Increased international sanctions against Burundi, including the re- duction of aid (which accounts for up to 80% of social services budgets) are hurting the civilian population the most. The Feb-April rain season period is characterized by heavy rains which are expected to be harsh this time due to El Nino effect. Flooding and landslides which have been reported in the Imbo and Mirwa communes are expected to be more severe in the coming months. EARLY WARNING/EARLY ACTION JAN-FEB 2016 ETHIOPIA $77.5 M USD in PROGRAMMING 1500 STAFF 68 OFFICES IN 8 PROVINCES 157,400 CHILDREN ASSESSED MONTHLY DROUGHT—NSC The National Disaster Risk Management Coordination Commission’s (NDRMCC), Emergency Nutrition Co- ordination Unit (ENCU) released the revised nutrition hotspot classification in December 2015. In 2015, the number of areas needing urgent humanitarian support (hotspot priority 1) increased from 40 woredas in Feb- ruary to 186 woredas in December 2015, reflecting the deteriorated humanitarian context. The HRD projec- tion indicated: 0.4M SAM and 1.7M MAM caseload for 2016. There are indications that children attending school will be affected by the ongoing drought. Monitoring this situation is critical for continuity of education and protection of children. A strain of meningitis C is now circulating among refugees in Gambella (11 suspected cases and four con- firmed). An emergency vaccination campaign will be launched in the affected refugee camp and surrounding host community. In addition, 33 suspected cases of acute watery diarrhea in Moyale woredas of Oromia and Somali regions, bordering Kenya, are currently under investigation by the Government and partners. Drought in the eastern highland farming areas led to loss of crops. Forecasted performance of the meher pro- duction season has already resulted in rising food prices and declining terms of trade as farmers and pastoral- ists in the drought affected areas have sold their livestock for progressively lower prices. Missed cropping sea- sons in some areas, and total failure of planted crops in others exacerbated food insecurity situation. Irrigation -based crop cultivation totally failed as well, as a result of reduced river water volume and flood water coming from the Tigray highlands. Projected 10.2 M people in need of emergency food assistance in 2016, 435,000 children under five and 1.7 M children, pregnant and lactating women requiring specialized nutritional support. Current food need is $1.1 B. Out of the total 10.2 M beneficiaries, 1,290,968 beneficiaries (12.6 % of total beneficiaries) exist in WVE oper- ational areas. The number of beneficiaries in 34 programme areas alone are 1.4 M people. There are 821,200 refugees from South Sudan, Somalia and Eritrea currently in the country. Numbers contin- ue to increase. This is the largest population of refugees in the region and needs continued and consistent support. There are 440,000 Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) in Ethiopia due to flooding and violent clashes over scarce resources. At present, about 8.2 M people are receiving emergency food assistance. This figure is expected to increase to 10.2M due to failure of both belg and meher rain which adversely affected crop and livestock performance. The poor performance of Kiremnt rain resulted reduction of ground water table and discharging capacity of water structures and schemes. deterioration Furthermore, high risks of communicable disease outbreaks are anticipated in the country due to the drought and scarcity of potable water and vaccinations. NE Tigray, N Afar, E/C Amhara and western and southwestern parts of the country received normal rainfall. S/SW parts of the country experienced short rains favoring grass/fodder production. EARLY WARNING/EARLY ACTION JAN-FEB 2016 KENYA $88 MILLION USD in PROGRAMMING Over 1000 STAFF 56 OFFICES IN 35 COUNTIES 156,658 CHILDREN ASSESED MONTHLY STABLE Nutrition status remained very critical in Turkana and pockets of Marsabit North and Mandera and Critical in Wajir, Marsabit and Isiolo Counties. The situation is expected to improve with the availability of pasture which will lead to increased milk production and migration of livestock back to the settlement areas. Many schools are at risk to severe damages during rainy seasons: Elgeyo Marakwet, Isiolo, Makueni, Tana Riv- er, Kiambu, Murang'a, West Pokot, Homa Bay, Vihiga, Kakamega, Kilifi and Nandi counties. New threat of a teachers strike related to contractual negotiations and performance evaluations. Outbreak of diseases, e.g. malaria, cholera, diarrheal diseases especially in Dadaab, Kisumu, Tana River, Migori, Isiolo, Homa Bay and West Pokot. Constraints with routine emergency referral of medical emergencies ongo- ing due to structural inadequacies. Cholera outbreak was reported in Garissa and Wajir Counties Food prices are stable and expected to remain so due to harvest in the North Rift and fast maturing crops in Marginal Agricultural clusters. Maize supply is likely to continue increasing with anticipated good harvest of short rain crop. Overall, national food availability is normal, and most areas of western and central Kenya are likely to remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) Most areas of western, Central Rift, South Rift and central Kenya are in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) as the long rains harvest and imports continue to keep markets well supplied. Most areas of Kenya received above-average short rains, driven by El Niño. In pastoral areas, the short rains led to the seasonal recovery of rangeland, increasing livestock productivity. Further improvements are expected through March, with more households moving to None (IPC Phase 1), although many will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Kenya hosts approximately 600,000 refugees, mainly from Somalia and South Sudan, in the Dadaab and Ka- kuma camps out of which WVK is handling 225,000 Refugees (125,000 in Dadaab and 100,000 in Kakuma) Localized flooding and mudslides/landslides were reported in northwestern and northeastern pastoral areas and southeastern and coastal marginal agricultural areas. Although less extensive than previously expected, National Disaster Operation Center (NDOC) reported that the heavy rains resulted in approximately 103 deaths and displaced nearly 70,000 people. No significant tensions to report that would lead to violence or destabilization.
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