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Thailand Airlines Thailand Industry Focus Thailand Airlines Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 15 May 2017 Consolidation opportunity comes SET : 1,543.94 NOK-ing Analyst Capital raising for struggling NOK raises Marvin KHOR +60 32604 3911 Paul YONG CFA +65 6682 3712 opportunity for consolidation [email protected] [email protected] Industry in need of capacity restraint against mild demand outlook Improved dynamics could boost yield development and industry profitability Potential beneficiary AAV (Buy, TP: Bt6.90), while risks remain for THAI (Hold, TP: Bt18.70) and NOK STOCKS (NR, FV: 4.95). Expect minimal involvement from 12-mth BA (Hold, TP Bt20.15) Price Mkt Cap Target Price Performance (%) Bt US$m Bt 3 mth 12 mth Rating Financial woes led to potential consolidation. While airlines had in 2016 generally saw bumper profits from cheaper fuel, Nok Asia Aviation 6.05 847 6.90 (2.4) 2.5 BUY Airways (NOK) sank to deeper losses due to pilot sourcing issues, Bangkok Airways 20.10 1,218 20.15 (6.9) (21.2) HOLD which hurt capacity and drove up costs. The group reached Nok Airlines 4.68 84.4 4.95 (4.1) 3.6 NOT RATED negative equity which prompted a rights issue – raising the Thai Airways 18.00 1,133 18.70 (17.8) 11.8 HOLD possibility that 39.2% stakeholder Thai Airways (THAI) may end up Source: AllianceDBS, DBS Bank, DBSVTH, Bloomberg Finance L.P. with a majority stake, if insufficient minority shareholders answer Closing price as of 12 May 2017 the cash call. On the other hand, NOK is emerging as a potential target for airlines seeking inorganic growth – given its sizeable 20% market share in the domestic segment. Airlines’ relative performance YTD Opportunity to control supply growth as demand indicators Indexed closing price: AAV TB BA TB NOK TB ease. The Thai aviation market has been characterised by sliding 31Dec17 = 100 THAI TB SET yields (fares/revenue-passenger kilometre) over previous years, in 120 large part due to aggressive capacity additions by key and LCC (low cost carrier) players. The acquisition of NOK by another party 110 may allow for more judicious capacity addition decisions with its enlarged size. 100 Improved supply-demand balance can boost industry profitability. Historically, M&A activities had allowed other airline 90 markets globally to improve industry-wide profitability, resulting in improved load factors and yields for the remaining players. We 80 think consolidation, if it were to happen, may give rise to similar benefits for the Thai aviation industry. 70 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Acquirer could trade near-term earnings dilution for sizeable market share. NOK is expected to continue making losses in the near term, thus no immediate accretion should be expected for Source: AllianceDBS, DBS Bank, DBSVTH, Bloomberg L.P. any party which may absorb it. A key benefit lies in control over medium- to long-term yields and load factors, thanks to an enlarged market share. Alternatively, we think NOK’s unit costs have room to be improved, especially with regard to aircraft- related expenses. Retaining recommendations. Among our coverage, we prefer AAV for its market share lead that it can extend even further. THAI may be faced with injecting capital with minimal returns; or ceding sizeable domestic market share. We think Bangkok Airways (BA) will have minimal involvement in the NOK saga given its tighter focus on full-service carriage. ASIAN INSIGHTS VICKERS SECURITIES ed: CK / sa:CS, PY Industry Focus Thailand Airlines Financial woes at NOK had in its own analyst briefing revealed that this would trigger certain requirements for state-owned enterprises (SOE) as THAI While airlines had in 2016 generally saw bumper profits from is majority owned by the Thai government. cheaper fuel, Nok Airlines (NOK) sank to deeper losses due to We calculate that it would require >17.6% of current NOK pilot sourcing issues, which hurt capacity and drove up costs. shareholders (i.e. >28.95% of the remaining 60.8% share) to The severity of losses led the group into a negative equity answer the cash call to avoid this scenario. position, necessitating capital raising in 2017. The amount (up to Bt1.5bn) raised would likely go into working NOK’s end-FY16 financial statements capital / settlement of payables, which has grown to Bt3.1bn Inc ome Sta te me nt (THB m) FY15 FY16 (excluding forward sales). Note that NOK is in a net cash Passenger & service rev 13,753 16,226 position, mainly because it has all planes on operating leases. Other income 499 676 Operating expenses (15,913) (20,076) NOK’s end-FY16 payables breakdown Ope ra ting profit (1,661) (3,174) Pa ya ble s bre a kdown (THB m) FY15 FY16 Net interest 3 (81) Payables 2,934 4,467 JV 0 (14) Profit/loss be fore ta x (1,658) (3,270) less Unearned passenger rev 883 1,324 Taxation (6) (0) 2,052 3,143 Profit a fte r ta x (1,664) (3,270) less Minority interest (938) (475) Related parties 106 68 PATAMI (726) (2,795) Trade & other (3rd parties) 624 999 Other advances 357 578 Shareholder EPS (THB) (1.2) (4.5) Accrued expenses 964 1,499 Ba la nc e She e t (THB m) FY15 FY16 Source: Company, AllianceDBS, DBS Bank, DBSVTH, DBS Bank Cash and liquid assets 4,214 3,231 Receivables 1,120 1,182 However, we think more capital raising may be required – this is Other assets 1,777 1,587 primarily because NOK is likely to continue seeing losses in Tota l Asse ts 7,110 6,001 Borrowings 520 700 FY17F (see our attached Non-Rated report), which would again Payables 2,934 4,467 whittle down its net asset value. Even assuming full subscription Other liabilities 714 1,173 of the rights, our projections of 43% reduction in bottomline Tota l Lia bilitie s 4,168 6,341 losses (to Bt1.88bn) would still result in negative total equity Share capital 625 625 widening again to Bt762m, from Bt340m at end-FY16. Retained earnings & others 2,422 (386) Shareholder equity 3,047 239 NOK’s end-FY17F forecasted financial statements Minority interest (105) (579) Ba la nc e She e t (THB m) FY16 FY17F Tota l Equity 2,942 (340) Cash and liquid assets 3,231 2,935 Receivables 1,182 1,489 Shareholder BVPS (THB) 4.9 0.4 Other assets 1,587 1,601 Total NA per share (THB) 4.7 (0.5) Tota l Asse ts 6,001 6,024 Source: Company, AllianceDBS, DBS Bank, DBSVTH, DBS Bank Borrowings 700 700 Rights issue to restore equity value, though potentially Payables 4,467 4,913 just temporarily Other liabilities 1,173 1,173 Tota l Lia bilitie s 6,341 6,786 NOK’s rights issue plan entails a 1-for-1 (625m) rights issue at Share capital 625 1,250 Bt2.40 per share which would raise up to Bt1.5bn; plus a 1-for- Retained earnings & others (386) (1,387) 4 (156.25m) free warrants issue with an exercise price of Bt5. Shareholder equity 239 (137) This received shareholder approval in Apr 2017. Minority interest (579) (625) Tota l Equity (340) (762) Given that THAI currently owns 39.2% of NOK, there is the possibility that minority shareholders’ under-subscription would Shareholder BVPS (THB) 0.4 (0.2) result in its ownership exceeding 50%– necessitating the full Total NA per share (THB) (0.5) (1.2) consolidation of NOK’s financials into THAI as a subsidiary. THAI Source: Company, AllianceDBS, DBS Bank, DBSVTH, DBS Bank ASIAN INSIGHTS VICKERS SECURITIES Page 2 Industry Focus Thailand Airlines Strategic significance of NOK Saturated domestic market has mild outlook NOK has a fleet of 32 aircraft as end-FY16 (all on operating Tourist visitations have historically been a strong driver of leases), comprising 22 narrowbody jets (Boeing 737s) and 10 Thailand’s air traffic given the popularity of the country as a turboprops (mix of Q400s and ATR72s). In terms of capacity tourist destination. While visitation growth has been resilient – (available seat kilometres, ASK), its production in 2016 reliably rebounding after incidents of weakness – its temporary represents 7% of that of the largest carrier THAI (all services), up downturns had correspondingly tempered passenger traffic, to 30% of the largest domestic LCC player Thai AirAsia/AAV, which bodes ill for the aviation sector. and even more for smaller players. As such, it would be a significant acquisition in terms of total capacity addition. Air traffic growth vs tourist arrivals Air traffic* growth Tourist arrival growth For intra-Thailand services, NOK makes up 19% of overall seats, 25% a sizeable chunk and placing it second behind Thai AirAsia 20% (29%), but slightly ahead of Thai Lion Air (19%). For any of the 15% top 4 airlines, consolidation of its seats will propel them to the top spot in terms of capacity share. 10% 5% Snapshot of airline statistics 0% 2016 statistics NOK AAV inc.* THAI inc.* -5% Year-end fleet -10% Tota l 32 51 63% 95 34% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Turboprops 10 - - *Airports of Thailand (AoT) data - inc. embark, disembark, transit Narrowbody 22 51 43% 22 100% Source: AOT, Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) Widebody - - 73 The resilience and robustness in traffic has led to airline players ASK (m) 6,264 20,629 30% 85,042 7% being more aggressive in capacity growth as they anticipate demand to eventual grow to match supply.
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