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Economic“The “ Recoveryin America J U N E , 2 0 1 3 , 5th I s s u e 13 Economic“The “ Recoveryin America A KASIKORNBANK PUBLICATION 1 13 Shareholder Newsletter THAI ECONOMY 1H13 : Sluggish Domestic Thai Economic Overview Economic Thai Spending and Exports Although the Thai economy may not be able to avoid a deceleration in 1H13, KResearch is of the view that the Thai economy will gradually pick up later on in 2H13 as there are improving signs foreseen in global economic conditions amid a more stable Baht and domestic inflation, while the government’s budgetary disbursements should progress on-track. Thai economy...slowing growth in 1H13 The Thai economy began to slide at decelerated pace of 5.3 percent YoY in the start of 2013, mainly because of the 1Q13, reflecting that overall economic expiration of government economic stimulus activities returned to normalcy after measures, including the first-time car buyer registering a staggering 19.1 percent program, plus sluggish exports as the global YoY growth in 4Q12, as a result of the economic recovery remained fragile, low 2011 base. However the seasonally- inhibited by prolonged economic recession adjusted GDP for 1Q13 contracted 2.2 within the Eurozone and a slower-than- percent QoQ, due to the declines seen in expected economic recovery in China. household and public spending, plus fixed As a result, the Thailand economy grew at a asset investments and exports. 2 13 Shareholder Thai Economy exhibits slower growth in 1H13 Newsletter %YoY %YoY 35 Foreign Tourists Private Consumption 100 Exports 30 Private Investment 80 Manufacturing Production 25 60 20 40 15 20 10 0 5 -20 Jan 11 Jun 11 Jan 12 Jun 12 Jan 13 0 -40 Source : BOT, OIE, KResearch -5 Jan 11 Jun 11 Jan 12 Jun 12 Jan 13 -60 Source : BOT, KReseach %YoY Growth Rate of Thai Economy As economic conditions in 2Q13 should not change 25 19.1 significantly from the previous quarter, we at KResearch have 20 15 forecast that the Thai economy will continue to expand 10 5.3 at a slower pace, at 4.3 percent YoY, as the export and 5 2.7 3.7 4.4 0.4 3.1 4.3 manufacturing sectors remain clouded by murky global 0 economic conditions and the Baht’s volatility, though it -5 2Q11 4Q11 2Q12 4Q12 2Q13f -10 -8.9 began to soften gradually from mid-April. -15 Source : NESDB, KResearch Forecast It is expected that private consumption will slow as the stimulus effects from the first-time car buyer program should subside around the middle of this year. Nevertheless, domestic demand will continue to grow, thanks to the government’s budgetary disbursements that will help spur cash flow in certain businesses, thus helping sustain employment and income that are standing at relatively high levels. In addition, the government’s decision to extend measures to help ease the high cost of living for consumers, e.g., free bus and economy-class train services, subsidies on certain fuels and price controls on some necessities, amid the downward trends seen in global crude oil prices, should help keep inflation at a moderate level and support domestic spending somewhat1. Issues to be monitored in 2H13 • Signs of global economic recovery : It is expected that global economic conditions, especially in China, will improve in 2H13. A more stable global economy should help bolster the Thai export and manufacturing sectors. Moreover, prices in some of our export categories will benefit from the rebound in global demand. • Budgetary disbursements for state investment projects other than those under the annual budget, including Baht 50-60 billion for the water management program by 4Q13 and Baht 10 billion for other infrastructure development projects. If these investment projects progress on-track, it is expected that the Thai economy will grow at a sustainable pace this year. 1 It is expected that inventories will increase in 2Q13 after gold prices have moder- ated and the delay in releasing certain agricultural produce from stocks. 3 13 Shareholder Newsletter • Rising product prices in line with higher production costs will be more apparent than what was seen in 1H13. The cooking gas price hike scheduled for July will indirectly drive up product prices and production costs further. KResearch expects that subdued domestic spending and the high 2012 base will help keep inflationary pressures mostly benign until the end of 3Q13, before rising in the subsequent quarter. Growth Projection for the Thai Economy in 2013 2013 Units % YoY or otherwise indicated 2011 2012 Base Case Forecase Range Thai GDP Growth 0.1 6.5 4.8 4.3-5-3 Avg. Dubai Crude (USD/barrel) 106.0 108.9 106.0 103.0-109.0 Private Consumption 1.3 6.7 3.5 3.1-3.8 Investment 3.3 13.2 6.5 5.9-7.2 Gov't Budget Balance (% of GDP)** -3.3 -2.8 -2.3 -2.6 to -1.7 Export Growth 14.3 3.2 7.0 4.0-9.0 Import Growth 24.9 7.8 8.5 5.5-11.0 Trade Balance (USD bn) 17.0 8.3 5.7 4.5-6.7 Current Account (USD bn) 5.9 2.7 -1.3 -3.8 to 0.7 Headline CPI 3.8 3.0 2.6 2.4-3.0 Core CPI 2.4 2.1 1.4 1.2-1.7 Unemployment Rate (% of Labor Force) 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7-0.9 Souce : NESDB, BOT, MOC, and KResearch Forecase as of 20 May 2013 Thai economy expected to grow at 4.8 percent in 2013 KResearch projects that the Thai economy will grow at around 4.8 percent in 2013 or within 4.3-5.3 percent, assuming that Dubai crude averages USD103-109/barrel, and major economies except for the Eurozone are able to sustain growth momentum, even if fiscal restrictions in the US may weigh down on its economy, causing it to grow at less than 2.0 percent this year. KResearch is of the view that the Thai economy will gradually recover over the remainder of 2013 following the QoQ contraction seen in 1Q13 if global economic conditions improve amid more stable Baht and inflation movements, plus the government’s budgetary disbursements progress on-track. Nevertheless, the 2012 base and expiration of measures to stimulate consumer spending on durable goods such as cars will present an important test as to whether the Thai economy can sustain growth, particularly when our exports hinge on the global economic recovery, while government spending on special projects, namely the water management program and various infrastructure development projects, will have to go through various verification processes before it can begin perhaps later this year. 4 13 Shareholder Newsletter With regard to investments in the financial markets, signs that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might end its quantitative easing (QE) measures amid a fragile economic recovery in China will likely steepen volatility in international capital movements. This means that the global financial and capital markets will inevitably have to make a major adjustment if signs of QE exit become apparent in 2H13. Disclaimer This research paper is arranged for public information, which has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. KResearch does not warrant its completeness, reliability or accuracy for commerce or fitness for a particular purpose. The information contained herein may be subject to change at any time without notice. Reliance upon any information contained herein shall be undertaken at the user’s own risk. KResearch shall not be liable to any user, or anyone else, for any damage occurring from the use of any content herein. Nothing in this research paper shall be counted as containing any advice, recommendation or opinion for decision-making in business. Conditions Market Stock Shareholder 5 Newsletter 13 Half 2013 through theSecond- Strategies Investment 6 13 Shareholder Newsletter attribute the 20-percent stock market consolidation • We hold to our 2013 SET Index projection of 1,700, WE over the last two months, with the index falling from a expecting a fourth quarter rebound as market concerns over high of 1,645 to around 1,300 points, largely to capital outflows a pull-back of QE subside. rather than to fundamentals. • We continue to advise going overweight in banking, • Lowered GDP projections from the IMF and the World real estate, hotels, hospitals, food and agriculture, infrastructure, Bank represent slower but continuing global recovery. and ICT, recommending SCB, CPN, PS, MINT, BGH, CPF, TUF, • Analysts have not reduced their projections of listed EGCO and ADVANC. company earnings, in spite of the drop in the SET Index. • For medium- and small-cap stocks, we recommend • In spite of the steep consolidation, we are projecting TK, PM, SMK, SINGER, SAMART, MALEE, STANLY, and DSGT. next year’s price to earnings ratio (P/E) at 10-11, with a SET Index of 1,300-1,400 offering an attractive buying window. The consolidation means it’s time to buy Over the past few months, from mid-May through early June, a strengthening Japanese Yen and a weakening Thai Baht have motivated sell-offs in order to pay foreign currency-denominated debts — Yen carry trade unwinding. This, together with fears that the US Fed may terminate quantitative easing as the US economy improves, with possible liquidity effects on equity markets worldwide, lowered investment premiums, i.e. reduced expected P/E, or de-rating. We see the consequent consolidation as a good time to buy, believing that the fall-off represents overreaction to concerns of capital flight. The eventual termination of QE, we believe, will be accomplished a little at a time, not all at once, and in any case QE3 has not introduced new foreign cash into the Thai stock market (Figure 1); on the contrary, there has been a net sell-off by foreign investors.
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