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Thai Airways Int'l Pcl (THAI TB) Tha Nachart S Ecurities

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Thai Airways Int'l Pcl (THAI TB) Tha Nachart S Ecurities SELL TP: Bt 13.00 Initiation Downside : 11.0% 4 APRIL 2016 Thai Airways Int’l Pcl (THAI TB) Too optimistic We believe the market is too optimistic on THAI’s earnings turning around sharply this year on lower jet fuel prices and its cost-cutting SAKSID PHADTHANANARAK plan. Besides concerns over fierce competition and an oil-price 662 – 617 4900 recovery, we see its valuation as unattractive at 12-13x PE in 2016-17F [email protected] vs. the 11-12x industry average. Initiate with SELL and TP of Bt13.0. Initiate with SELL and TP of Bt13.0 COMPANY VALUATION A sharp fall in jet-fuel prices along with THAI’s cost-cutting plan Y/E Dec (Bt m) 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F causes us to forecast THAI’s earnings to turn to profits from this year onward. However, we expect severe competition to continue Sales 182,727 171,477 179,614 190,163 and still put THAI’s long-term growth under pressure. Based on Net profit (13,067) 2,715 2,398 2,461 our jet-fuel price assumptions of US$65-79/bbl in 2016-18F, total Consensus NP 3,353 3,557 5,609 cost per available seat kilometer (CASK) assumptions of Bt1.95- Diff frm cons (%) (19.0) (32.6) (56.1) 2.14 (vs. Bt2.19-2.49 in 2014-15) and total revenue per available Norm profit (5,289) 2,715 2,398 2,461 seat kilometer (RASK) assumptions of Bt2.14-2.35 (vs. Bt2.28- Prev. Norm profit 2.36 in 2014-15) we forecast THAI to post earnings of Bt2.4- Chg frm prev (%) 2.7bn in 2016-18, vs. losses of Bt5.3bn in 2015. Our DCF-based Norm EPS (Bt) (2.4) 1.2 1.1 1.1 12-month TP arrives at Bt13.0/share. Initiate with a SELL call. Norm EPS grw (%) na na (11.7) 2.7 Securities Unattractive valuation in our view Norm PE (x) na 11.7 13.3 12.9 EV/EBITDA (x) 12.4 8.0 7.4 6.8 We expect THAI to report strong profit in 1Q16 driven by the P/BV (x) 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 benefit of Thailand’s high tourism season, lower jet fuel prices Div yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 and lower staff costs from its early retirement program. However, we believe its share price run-up by 59% YTD should already ROE (%) na 7.9 6.5 6.3 reflect this positive news. Its valuation is now unattractive in our Net D/E (%) 521.2 445.6 387.2 342.2 view, trading at 12-14x PE multiples in 2016-17F versus the industry averages of 11-12x. We believe its low P/BV of 0.9x in PRICE PERFORMANCE 2016F is justified by its low forecast ROE of 7.9% and ROA of 0.9%. Moreover, a short-term negative catalyst could come from (Bt/shr) THA I Rel to SET Index (%) Thanachart the low tourism season in the second quarter. Over the past 8 16 40 14 30 years, THAI has incurred consecutive normalized losses in the 20 second quarter. 12 10 10 0 (10) Intense competition continuing 8 (20) We maintain our bearish view on the airline industry because: 1) 6 (30) Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 despite a fall in jet fuel prices, airlines are seeing little benefit due to fierce competition also causing their revenue per available seat kilometer (RASK) to fall, 2) we see the competition remaining COMPANY INFORMATION severe with Thai AirAsia still planning to add five more aircraft Price as of 1-Apr-16 (Bt) 14.60 with 11% additional capacity this year and Lion Air adding 11 more aircraft with 58% additional capacity, and 3) low earnings Market Cap (US$ m) 907.6 visibility given jet fuel price volatility. We estimate that a 1% Listed Shares (m shares) 2,182.8 change in the jet fuel price would affect THAI’s earnings by 15%. Free Float (%) 46.8 Avg Daily Turnover (US$ m) 3.0 Tight financial status 12M Price H/L (Bt) 14.80/7.50 Under its contracts, 14 aircraft are due to be delivered to THAI in Sector Transportation 2016-18 while 14 ageing aircraft are awaiting sale. Despite its net D/E ratio of 5.2x at end-2015, we don’t expect THAI to face any Major Shareholder Ministry of Finance 51.0% financial difficulties given support from the government as a state Sources: Bloomberg, Company data, Thanachart estimates enterprise and its cash on hand of Bt21bn at end-2015. However, given its tight cash flow situation, we expect its growth outlook to remain weak with ASK growth of only 0.5-0.6% in 2016-18F. This report is prepared by Thanachart Securities. Please contact our salesperson for authorisation. Please see the important notice on the back page COMPANY NOTE THAI SAKSID PHADTHANANARAK Ex 1: Key Assumptions 2016F 2017F 2018F Jet fuel price (US$/bbl) 65.0 72.0 79.0 Total revenue per available seat kilometer (Bt/ASK) 2.14 2.23 2.35 Total cost per available seat kilometer (Bt/ASK) 1.95 2.03 2.14 SG&A-to-sales ratio (%) 5.2 5.2 5.2 Normalized profit (Bt m) 2,715 2,398 2,461 Source: Thanachart estimates Ex 2: THAI’s Earnings Trend (Bt m) 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 (2,000) (4,000) (6,000) (8,000) (10,000) (22,038) 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F 2019F 2020F Sources: Company data, Thanachart estimates Ex 3: A Fall In Airlines’ CASK … Ex 4: … While Competition Has Also Pressured RASK (Bt/ASK) (Bt/ASK) 2.7 3.0 2.9 2.6 2.8 2.5 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Sources: Thai AirAsia, Singapore Airlines, Bangkok Airways and THAI’s Sources: Thai AirAsia, Singapore Airlines, Bangkok Airways and THAI’s average CASK average RASK THANACHART RESEARCH 2 COMPANY NOTE THAI SAKSID PHADTHANANARAK Ex 5: Airline Cost Comparison In 2015 (Bt/ASK) CASK RASK 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Thai AirAsia THAI Singapore Airlines Bangkok Airways Source: Company data Note: *Singapore Airlines’s average CASK and RASK in 9MFY16 (April-December 2015) Ex 6: Low Cost Airlines’ Market Share In Thailand (%) Low-cost airlines' passengers Full-service airlines' passengers 100 6 90 25 27 29 32 80 39 42 70 60 50 94 40 75 73 71 68 30 61 58 20 10 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Airports of Thailand THANACHART RESEARCH 3 COMPANY NOTE THAI SAKSID PHADTHANANARAK Ex 7: 12-month DCF-based Calculation Terminal (Bt m) 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F Value EBITDA 23,854 24,204 25,002 25,469 25,945 26,430 26,922 27,422 27,928 28,649 29,375 30,108 Free cash flow 19,763 13,610 12,235 12,418 12,557 12,708 13,198 13,692 14,192 14,864 15,539 16,218 252,076 PV of free cash flow 19,763 11,547 9,562 8,940 8,325 7,761 7,424 7,095 6,772 6,533 6,291 6,048 94,011 Risk-free rate (%) 4.5 Market risk premium (%) 7.5 Beta 1.2 WACC (%) 8.6 Terminal growth (%) 2.0 Enterprise value - add investments 200,073 Net debt (end 2015) 171,621 Minority interest 70 Equity value 28,382 # of shares (m) 2,183 Target price/share (Bt) 13.0 Sources: Company data, Thanachart estimates Valuation Comparison Ex 8: Valuation Comparison With Regional Peers EPS growth —— PE —— — P/BV — EV/EBITDA — Div yield — Name BBG code Country 16F 17F 16F 17F 16F 17F 16F 17F 16F 17F (%) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (%) (%) China Southern (China) 600029 CH China 98.7 9.0 8.2 7.6 1.4 1.2 8.2 7.7 1.5 2.4 China Eastern 600115 CH China 83.7 3.3 9.5 9.2 1.8 1.5 7.3 6.9 0.7 1.1 Air China (China) 601111 CH China 24.3 5.3 10.0 9.5 1.3 1.2 6.5 6.2 1.4 1.8 Cathay Pacific Airways 293 HK Hong Kong 5.0 2.3 8.3 8.1 0.9 0.9 5.4 5.4 4.2 4.4 Singapore Airlines SIA SP Singapore 24.4 30.7 18.9 14.5 1.0 1.0 4.3 3.7 3.2 3.9 Eva Airways Corp 2618 TT Taiwan na 4.4 8.7 8.4 1.2 1.1 5.6 5.2 2.0 1.9 Bangkok Airways BA TB Thailand (56.5) 16.2 19.4 16.7 1.8 1.7 10.8 9.8 3.0 3.7 Thai Airways* THAI TB Thailand na (11.7) 11.7 13.3 0.9 0.8 8.0 7.4 0.0 0.0 Average 29.9 7.4 11.8 10.9 1.3 1.2 7.0 6.5 2.0 2.4 Source: Bloomberg Note: * Thanachart estimates, using Thanachart normalized EPS Based on 1-Apr-16 closing prices THANACHART RESEARCH 4 APPENDIX THAI SAKSID PHADTHANANARAK COMPANY DESCRIPTION COMPANY RATING Rating Scale Thai Airways International (THAI), the national flag carrier of Thailand, Financial was founded in 1960 and listed on the SET in 1991.
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