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A Model of Bimetallism
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Research Department A Model of Bimetallism François R. Velde and Warren E. Weber Working Paper 588 August 1998 ABSTRACT Bimetallism has been the subject of considerable debate: Was it a viable monetary system? Was it a de- sirable system? In our model, the (exogenous and stochastic) amount of each metal can be split between monetary uses to satisfy a cash-in-advance constraint, and nonmonetary uses in which the stock of un- coined metal yields utility. The ratio of the monies in the cash-in-advance constraint is endogenous. Bi- metallism is feasible: we find a continuum of steady states (in the certainty case) indexed by the constant exchange rate of the monies; we also prove existence for a range of fixed exchange rates in the stochastic version. Bimetallism does not appear desirable on a welfare basis: among steady states, we prove that welfare under monometallism is higher than under any bimetallic equilibrium. We compute welfare and the variance of the price level under a variety of regimes (bimetallism, monometallism with and without trade money) and find that bimetallism can significantly stabilize the price level, depending on the covari- ance between the shocks to the supplies of metals. Keywords: bimetallism, monometallism, double standard, commodity money *Velde, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago; Weber, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and University of Minne- sota. We thank without implicating Marc Flandreau, Ed Green, Angela Redish, and Tom Sargent. The views ex- pressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, the Fed- eral Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, or the Federal Reserve System. -
WHY DID the BANK of in Financial Markets and Monetary Economics
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES WHY DIDTHEBANK OF CANADA EMERGE IN 1935? Michael Bordo Angela Redish Working Paper No. 2079 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 November 1986 The research reported here is part of the NBER's research program in Financial Markets and Monetary Economics. Any opinions expressed are those of the authors and not those of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER Working Paper #2079 November 1986 Why Did the Bank of Canada Emerge in 1935? ABSTRACT Three possible explanations for the emergence of the Canadian central bank in 1935 are examined: that it reflected the need of competitive banking systems for a lender of the last resort; that it was necessary to anchor the unregulated Canadian monetary system after the abandonment of the gold standard in 1929; and that it was a response to political rather than purely economic pressures. Evidence from a variety of sources (contemporary statements to a Royal Comission, the correspondence of chartered bankers, newspaper reports, academic writings and the estimation of time series econometric models) rejects the first two hypotheses and supports the third. Michael D. Bordo Angela Redish Department of Economics Department of Economics College of Business Administration University of British Columbia University of South CArolina Vancouver, B.C. V6T lY2 Columbia, SC 29208 Canada Why Did the Bank of Canada Emeroe in 1935? Michael D. Bordo and Angela Redish Three possible explanations for the emergence of the Canadian central bank in 1935 are examined: that it reflected the need of competitive banking systems for a lender of last resort; that it was necessary to anchor the unregulated Canadian monetary system after the abandonment of the gold standard in 1929; and that it was a response to political rather than purely economic pressures. -
Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic Thomas Sargent, ,, ^ Neil Wallace (P
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic Thomas Sargent, ,, ^ Neil Wallace (p. 1) District Conditions (p.18) Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review vol. 5, no 3 This publication primarily presents economic research aimed at improving policymaking by the Federal Reserve System and other governmental authorities. Produced in the Research Department. Edited by Arthur J. Rolnick, Richard M. Todd, Kathleen S. Rolfe, and Alan Struthers, Jr. Graphic design and charts drawn by Phil Swenson, Graphic Services Department. Address requests for additional copies to the Research Department. Federal Reserve Bank, Minneapolis, Minnesota 55480. Articles may be reprinted if the source is credited and the Research Department is provided with copies of reprints. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis or the Federal Reserve System. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review/Fall 1981 Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic Thomas J. Sargent Neil Wallace Advisers Research Department Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and Professors of Economics University of Minnesota In his presidential address to the American Economic in at least two ways. (For simplicity, we will refer to Association (AEA), Milton Friedman (1968) warned publicly held interest-bearing government debt as govern- not to expect too much from monetary policy. In ment bonds.) One way the public's demand for bonds particular, Friedman argued that monetary policy could constrains the government is by setting an upper limit on not permanently influence the levels of real output, the real stock of government bonds relative to the size of unemployment, or real rates of return on securities. -
How the Rational Expectations Revolution Has Enriched
How the Rational Expectations Revolution Has Changed Macroeconomic Policy Research by John B. Taylor STANFORD UNIVERSITY Revised Draft: February 29, 2000 Written versions of lecture presented at the 12th World Congress of the International Economic Association, Buenos Aires, Argentina, August 24, 1999. I am grateful to Jacques Dreze for helpful comments on an earlier draft. The rational expectations hypothesis is by far the most common expectations assumption used in macroeconomic research today. This hypothesis, which simply states that people's expectations are the same as the forecasts of the model being used to describe those people, was first put forth and used in models of competitive product markets by John Muth in the 1960s. But it was not until the early 1970s that Robert Lucas (1972, 1976) incorporated the rational expectations assumption into macroeconomics and showed how to make it operational mathematically. The “rational expectations revolution” is now as old as the Keynesian revolution was when Robert Lucas first brought rational expectations to macroeconomics. This rational expectations revolution has led to many different schools of macroeconomic research. The new classical economics school, the real business cycle school, the new Keynesian economics school, the new political macroeconomics school, and more recently the new neoclassical synthesis (Goodfriend and King (1997)) can all be traced to the introduction of rational expectations into macroeconomics in the early 1970s (see the discussion by Snowden and Vane (1999), pp. 30-50). In this lecture, which is part of the theme on "The Current State of Macroeconomics" at the 12th World Congress of the International Economic Association, I address a question that I am frequently asked by students and by "non-macroeconomist" colleagues, and that I suspect may be on many people's minds. -
Interest Rates and Expected Inflation: a Selective Summary of Recent Research
This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: Explorations in Economic Research, Volume 3, number 3 Volume Author/Editor: NBER Volume Publisher: NBER Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/sarg76-1 Publication Date: 1976 Chapter Title: Interest Rates and Expected Inflation: A Selective Summary of Recent Research Chapter Author: Thomas J. Sargent Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c9082 Chapter pages in book: (p. 1 - 23) 1 THOMAS J. SARGENT University of Minnesota Interest Rates and Expected Inflation: A Selective Summary of Recent Research ABSTRACT: This paper summarizes the macroeconomics underlying Irving Fisher's theory about tile impact of expected inflation on nomi nal interest rates. Two sets of restrictions on a standard macroeconomic model are considered, each of which is sufficient to iniplv Fisher's theory. The first is a set of restrictions on the slopes of the IS and LM curves, while the second is a restriction on the way expectations are formed. Selected recent empirical work is also reviewed, and its implications for the effect of inflation on interest rates and other macroeconomic issues are discussed. INTRODUCTION This article is designed to pull together and summarize recent work by a few others and myself on the relationship between nominal interest rates and expected inflation.' The topic has received much attention in recent years, no doubt as a consequence of the high inflation rates and high interest rates experienced by Western economies since the mid-1960s. NOTE: In this paper I Summarize the results of research 1 conducted as part of the National Bureaus study of the effects of inflation, for which financing has been provided by a grait from the American life Insurance Association Heiptul coinrnents on earlier eriiins of 'his p,irx'r serv marIe ti PhillipCagan arid l)y the mnibrirs Ut the stall reading Committee: Michael R. -
Deflation, Productivity Shocks and Gold: Evidence from the 1880-1914 Period
Deflation, Productivity Shocks and Gold: Evidence from the 1880-1914 period Michael D. Bordo NBER and Rutgers University John Landon-Lane Rutgers University Angela Redish University of British Columbia Abstract In this paper, we examine the issue of deflation from a historical perspective. We focus on the price level and growth experiences at the four dominant countries on the gold standard, in the period 1880-1913: the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Germany. We distinguish between good deflation (driven by positive aggregate supply shocks) and bad deflation (driven by negative aggregate demand shocks). We use an empirical Blanchard-Quah model which decomposes the behavior of prices, output, and the money stock in the impact of three structural shocks (a world price level shock, a domestic supply shock, a domestic demand shock). Our key finding is that the European economies were essentially classic in the sense that money was neutral and output was mainly supply driven. In the United States, however, we observe both good and bad deflation. JEL: Money, Economic History, 1880-1913. Keywords: Deflation, Gold Standard, Demand, Supply Shocks. The authors wish to thank participants at the CNEH conference and at the Money/macro seminar at Carleton University and Tulane University, for comments, and Jake Wong for research assistance. Michael D. Bordo, Department of Economics, New Jersey Hall, 75 Hamilton Street, Rutgers University. New Brunswick NJ 08901. (732) – 932 – 7069/7416. [email protected] Introduction The return to an environment of low inflation in most countries in the past decade has sparked renewed interest in the subject of deflation since its possibility is only a recession away. -
Draft. Do Not Cite. April 4, 2005 Deflation, Productivity Shocks And
Draft. Do not cite. April 4, 2005 Deflation, Productivity Shocks and Gold: Evidence from the 1880-1914 period Michael D. Bordo NBER and Rutgers University John Landon-Lane Rutgers University Angela Redish University of British Columbia Paper prepared for seminar at Carleton University, and the conference of the Canadian Network in Economic History, Kingston, ON, April 2005. All comments appreciated. Introduction The return to an environment of low inflation in most countries in the past decade has sparked renewed interest in the subject of deflation since its possibility is only a recession away. The recent deflationary experiences of Japan, China, Hong Kong, Switzerland and other countries led to concern in 2003 by policymakers at the Federal Reserve, the ECB and elsewhere that it could happen to them. They feared the possibility of prolonged stagnation as experienced by Japan or even worse a deflationary spiral that would lead to the conditions of the 1930s Great Depression (Bordo and Filardo, 2004). In this paper we examine the issue from an historical perspective. We focus on the experience of deflation in the late nineteenth century when most of the countries of the world adhered to the classical gold standard. The period 1880-1914 was characterized by two decades of secular deflation followed by two decades of secular inflation. The price level experience of the pre 1914 period has considerable resonance for today’s environment. Several elements are salient. First deflation pre 1914 was quite low as has been the case recently. In the U.S. the GNP deflator declined by an average of 1% to 1.5 % per year from 1880-1896. -
When Did the Dollar Overtake Sterling As the Leading International Currency? Evidence from the Bond Markets
WORKING PAPER SERIES NO 1433 / MAY 2012 WHEN DID THE DOLLAR OVERTAKE STERLING AS THE LEADING INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY? EVIDENCE FROM THE BOND MARKETS by Livia Chitu, Barry Eichengreen and Arnaud Mehl In 2012 all ECB publications feature a motif taken from the €50 banknote. NOTE: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily refl ect those of the ECB. Acknowledgements The authors are grateful to Thierry Bracke, Marc Flandreau, Kristin Forbes, Norbert Gaillard, Christopher Meissner, Angela Redish and Roland Straub for helpful discussions. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily refl ect those of the ECB or the Eurosystem. Livia Chițu at European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany; e-mail: [email protected] Barry Eichengreen at University of California, 603 Evans Hall, Berkeley, 94720 California, USA; e-mail: [email protected] Arnaud Mehl at European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany; e-mail: [email protected] © European Central Bank, 2012 Address Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany Postal address Postfach 16 03 19, 60066 Frankfurt am Main, Germany Telephone +49 69 1344 0 Internet http://www.ecb.europa.eu Fax +49 69 1344 6000 All rights reserved. ISSN 1725-2806 (online) Any reproduction, publication and reprint in the form of a different publication, whether printed or produced electronically, in whole or in part, is permitted only with the explicit written authorisation of the ECB or the authors. -
An Interview with Neil Wallace;
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Altig, David; Nosal, Ed Working Paper An interview with Neil Wallace Working Paper, No. 2013-25 Provided in Cooperation with: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Suggested Citation: Altig, David; Nosal, Ed (2013) : An interview with Neil Wallace, Working Paper, No. 2013-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago, IL This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/96633 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. www.econstor.eu An Interview with Neil Wallace David Altig and Ed Nosal November 2013 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Reserve Federal WP 2013-25 An Interview with Neil Wallace David Altig Ed Nosal Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago November 2013 Abstract A few years ago we sat down with Neil Wallace and had two lengthy, free-ranging conversations about his career and, generally speaking, his views on economics. -
The Ends of Four Big Inflations
This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: Inflation: Causes and Effects Volume Author/Editor: Robert E. Hall Volume Publisher: University of Chicago Press Volume ISBN: 0-226-31323-9 Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/hall82-1 Publication Date: 1982 Chapter Title: The Ends of Four Big Inflations Chapter Author: Thomas J. Sargent Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c11452 Chapter pages in book: (p. 41 - 98) The Ends of Four Big Inflations Thomas J. Sargent 2.1 Introduction Since the middle 1960s, many Western economies have experienced persistent and growing rates of inflation. Some prominent economists and statesmen have become convinced that this inflation has a stubborn, self-sustaining momentum and that either it simply is not susceptible to cure by conventional measures of monetary and fiscal restraint or, in terms of the consequent widespread and sustained unemployment, the cost of eradicating inflation by monetary and fiscal measures would be prohibitively high. It is often claimed that there is an underlying rate of inflation which responds slowly, if at all, to restrictive monetary and fiscal measures.1 Evidently, this underlying rate of inflation is the rate of inflation that firms and workers have come to expect will prevail in the future. There is momentum in this process because firms and workers supposedly form their expectations by extrapolating past rates of inflation into the future. If this is true, the years from the middle 1960s to the early 1980s have left firms and workers with a legacy of high expected rates of inflation which promise to respond only slowly, if at all, to restrictive monetary and fiscal policy actions. -
Deflation Edited by Richard C
Cambridge University Press 978-0-521-83799-6 — Deflation Edited by Richard C. K. Burdekin , Pierre L. Siklos Frontmatter More Information DEFLATION Until recently, fears of deflation seemed nothing more than a relic of the Great Depression. However, beginning in the 1990s, persistently falling consumer prices emerged in Japan, China, and elsewhere. Deflation is also a distinct possibility in some of the major euro area economies, especially Germany, and became a concern of the U.S. Federal Reserve in 2003. Deflation may be worse than inflation, not only because the real burden of debt rises but also because firms would confront rising real wages in a world where nominal wage rigidity prevails. This volume explores some key themes regarding deflation including: (i) how economic agents and policy makers have responded to de- flation; (ii) the links between monetary policy, goods price movements, and asset price movements; (iii) the impact of deflation under different monetary policy and exchange rate regimes; and (iv) stock market reactions to deflation. Richard C. K. Burdekin is Jonathan B. Lovelace Professor of Economics at Claremont McKenna College, Claremont, California. His areas of interest include monetary and financial economics, Chinese economic reforms, and inflation and deflation. Professor Burdekin has published four books: Budget Deficits and Economic Performance (with Farrokh K. Langdana), Confidence, Credibility and Macroeconomic Policy (with Farrokh K. Langdana), Distributional Conflict and Inflation (with Paul Burkett), and Establish- ing Monetary Stability in Emerging Market Economies (edited with Thomas D. Willett, Richard J. Sweeney, and Clas Wihlborg). He has also authored more than forty refereed journal articles that have been published in the American Economic Review; the Jour- nal of Economic History; the Journal of International Money and Finance; the Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking; and the Review of Economics and Statistics, among other leading publications. -
Rational Expectations: Retrospect and Prospect
Rational Expectations: Retrospect and Prospect A Panel Discussion with Michael Lovell Robert Lucas Dale Mortensen Robert Shiller Neil Wallace Moderated by Kevin Hoover Warren Young CHOPE Working Paper No. 2011-10 30 May 2011 Rational Expectations: Retrospect and Prospect A Panel Discussion with Michael Lovell Robert Lucas Dale Mortensen Robert Shiller Neil Wallace Moderated by Kevin Hoover † Warren Young * 30 May 2011 †Department of Economics and Department of Philosophy, Duke University. Address: Box 90097, Durham, NC 27278, U.S.A. E-mail [email protected] *Department of Economics, Bar Ilan University. Address: Department of Economics, Bar Ilan University, Ramat Gan 52900, Israel. E-mail: [email protected] 1 Abstract of Rational Expectations: Retrospect and Prospect The transcript of a panel discussion marking the fiftieth anniversary of John Muth’s “Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements” ( Econometrica 1961). The panel consists of Michael Lovell, Robert Lucas, Dale Mortensen, Robert Shiller, and Neil Wallace. The discussion is moderated by Kevin Hoover and Warren Young. The panel touches on a wide variety of issues related to the rational-expectations hypothesis, including: its history, starting with Muth’s work at Carnegie Tech; its methodological role; applications to policy; its relationship to behavioral economics; its role in the recent financial crisis; and its likely future. JEL Codes: B22, B31, B26, E17 Keywords: rational expectations, John F. Muth, macroeconomics, dynamics, macroeconomic policy, behavioral economics, efficient markets 2 “Rational Expectations” 28 May 2011 Rational Expectations: Retrospect and Prospect: A Panel Discussion with Michael Lovell, Robert Lucas, Dale Mortensen, Robert Shiller and Neil Wallace, Moderated by Kevin Hoover and Warren Young The panel discussion was held in a session sponsored by the History of Economics Society at the Allied Social Sciences Association (ASSA) meetings in the Capitol 1 Room of the Hyatt Regency Hotel in Denver, Colorado on 7 January 2011.