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www.fes.ba BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA 2025: Paul Pasch (Ed.) BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA 2025: SCENARIOS ON FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS

Paul Pasch, Editor

Sarajevo, 2012 Published by: Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung Kupreka 20 71000 Sarajevo Bosnia and Herzegovina Tel.: +387 (0)33 722-010 E-mail: [email protected] www.fes.ba © Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung

Responsible: Dr. Paul Pasch Translation: Senada Kreso Proofreading: Gwen Jones Zinaida Lakiæ Illustrations: Mirza Ibrahimpasiæ Layout: Filip Andronik Photos: Dr. Paul Pasch

CIP - Katalogizacija u publikaciji Nacionalna i univerzitetska biblioteka Bosne i Hercegovine, Sarajevo

316.422:[323:338(497.6)2011/2025(083.92)

BOSNIA and Herzegovina 2025: scenarios on future / Paul Pasch, editor ; [translation Senada Kreso ; illustrations Mirza Ibrahimspahiæ]. - Sarajevo : Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, 2012. - 87 str. : ilustr. ; 24 cm

Prijevod djela: Bosna i Hercegovina 2025. - "IBLIOGRAµJAÒSTRÒ

ISBN 978-9958-884-11-5 1. Pasch, Paul COBISS.BH-ID 19407622 Bosnia and Herzegovina 2025: Scenarios on future developments

Paul Pasch, Editor

Contents

Foreword ...... 7

INTRODUCTION ...... 13 The Scenario Method ...... 15 The Need for a Fresh Look ...... 17 Executive Summary ...... 19

SCENARIOS BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA 2025 ...... 23 Dayton Mail - Status quo ...... 24 Trans BiH Arrow - Functional decentralised state ...... 28 BiH Union Express - Functional centralised state ...... 34 Western Balkan Inter City - Regional reconnecion ...... 40 Tripartite Border Train - Dissolution ...... 46

Background to the Scenarios BiH 2025 ...... 53 Political scenario planing: Short Guideline ...... 55 The Pathway towards the Scenarios BiH 2025 ...... 62 Participants individual Stories ...... 65 Some further results of the Working Group on Regional Reconnection ...... 78

ANNEX ...... 83 Scenario Planning Team ...... 85 Bibliography ...... 88

Foreword

The global economic down- of semi-autonomous entities, i.e. the turn has hit Bosnia and Herzegovina Republika Srpska and the Federation of hard. The socio-economic situation is in Bosnia and Herzegovina with its 10 Can- dire straights. Political impasse is preva- TONSÒkÒISÒNOTÒCONDUCIVEÒTOÒTHEÒEFµCIENTÒ lent. The international community is still functioning of state institutions. Back in very much engaged. Much has been and 1995 the Dayton Peace Agreement was still is being published about the country. a very welcome achievement, but with Still, sometimes we do have mispercep- Bosnia and Herzegovinas ambition to tions regarding Bosnia and Herzegovina. accede to both NATO and the EU, things have changed. The FES project Bosnia and Herze- govina 2025 Scenarios on future Devel- Everyone now seems to be aware OPMENTSiÒ ÒOFFERSÒµVEÒDIFFERENTÒSCENARIOSÒ that Bosnia and Herzegovina is in need on what the country could look like in the of constitutional reform. A better func- year 2025. The scenarios seek to provoke tioning of state level institutions needs the on-going debates by providing an un- to be ensured. In October 2010 general conventional look on the situation. elections took place. For a state that has begun to lag behind the rest of the re- The international community is com- gion, that should have been perceived as mitted to help Bosnia and Herzegovina a starting point to move forward from overcome the shadows of its traumatic the political deadlock. However, it took past, assist it on its way to transatlantic the leaders of the six main political par- and European integration, and to help ties 15 months of brinkmanship to come the country regain its status as a modern to a watered down compromise that al- and functional European country. lowed for a principal agreement on the formation of the Council of Ministers. The current Constitution being one of the annexes of the Dayton Peace Thus there is a pressing need for the Agreement with its complex structure new administration to take some clear

7 decisions with regard to the future of scenario planning exercise could contrib- THEÒ /FµCEÒ OFÒ THEÒ (IGHÒ 2EPRESENTATIVEÒ ute to the process in a constructive way. (OHR), Brcko District, compliance with We hope that, by presenting politicians the Stabilisation and Association Agree- and policy makers possible and plausible ment, NATO membership and EU acces- scenarios of what Bosnia and Herzegov- sion candidate status. ina could look like in 2025, we may provide them with food for thought. By be- The international community is ing confronted with possible scenarios more and more convinced that the driv- that might be in line with their visions of ing force behind these changes should the future of their country, or which they come from the people and their leaders. would like to prevent by all means, pol- The reform process should be undertak- icy makers and politicians might imple- en with a continuous step-by-step ap- ment their political strategies with more proach. The harmonisation of the Con- determination. stitution with the European Convention on Human Rights, the adaption of state It is obvious that local ownership is AIDÒLEGISLATION ÒASÒWELLÒASÒµNDINGÒAÒCOM- the only way to guarantee the outcome PROMISEÒONÒTHEÒCENSUSÒLAW ÒAREÒTHEÒµRSTÒ of the necessary reforms. However, ac- steps that need to be taken. Further- cording to the actual scenarios, the in- more, the rule of law and the principle of ternational community still has some ob- legal certainty should be respected. But LIGATIONSÒTOÒFULµLÒTOÒASSISTÒINÒTHEÒEFFORTSÒ above all a paradigm shift needs to take to overcome the dysfunctional Dayton place so that reconciliation amongst the structure. That is why Bosnia and Her- people can yield fruit. zegovina needs to be pushed to make progress towards reforms. Constitutional reform must be well prepared and agreed with local politi- The scenarios do not give a blueprint cians in order to be able to form a coali- for decision-makers how to act but they tion Government. A solution to the con- give a message, from which the recipi- ¹ICTINGÒCONCEPTSÒOFÒConfederation versus ents can draw their conclusions. The Federal State must be found. Overall the present publication intends to add some required reforms should be perceived as value to a controversial public debate a win-win situation for everyone. This of that will hopefully contribute to over- course is easier said than done. coming the stalemate. The people of Bosnia and Herzegovina, like all people This political deadlock was the star- of the Western Balkans, deserve to have INGÒPOINTÒWHENÒWEÒµRSTÒCONSIDEREDÒIFÒAÒ

8 a peaceful, prosperous and socially just determined to make this project a suc- perspective within the European family. cess. I would especially like to thank Winfried Veit, Merima Alic, Mia Karame- This publication project was made hic and Tanja Topic for their dedicated possible through the joint efforts of a work throughout the year-long exercise. very committed scenario team consist- It is their coordinating role, research, ing of 20 people from all walks of life of writing and technical editing that made Bosnian and Herzegovinian society, to- this project possible. I am also grateful gether with the FES coordination team. to Mirza Ibrahimpasic and Filip Andronik All team members participated in the for their invaluable work in illustrating scenario building in a personal capacity. and designing this publication. The scenarios are necessarily a compro- MISE Ò RE¹ECTINGÒ CONSENSUSÒ AMONGÒ THEÒ This publication remains the sole re- whole scenario team. I wish to acknowl- sponsibility of the editor. edge my appreciation to all the team members who were, over the year, so Paul Pasch

INTRODUCTION

The Scenario Method1

We simply do not know. but delineate different futures. It is then This was John Maynard Keynes famous up to decision-makers to decide upon comment on the future and the main which future they prefer and which motivation for building scenarios. Human strategy they choose to reach this fu- beings have been trying for centuries to ture. Scenario sceptics might argue that forecast the future, in former times by AÒ SPECIµCÒ TRENDÒ ISÒ EXAGGERATEDÒ ORÒ THEÒ consulting the oracle in Delphi, in present IN¹UENCEÒ OFÒ CERTAINÒ FACTORSÒ ISÒ OVERESTI- times by sophisticated trend extrapolation mated. Scenario advocates might accen- techniques. Military strategists, in particu- tuate the way in which scenarios can be lar, have always been keen on designing used as a mirror, showing reality in an scenarios for different situations. In more unpolished way. recent times, the scenario technique has been adapted for business as well. How are scenarios built? A scenario exercise starts by analysing what is al- Uncertainties complicate the scenar- ready known, i.e. the present situation. io building process. As the future is com- #URRENTÒKEYÒISSUESÒINÒAÒSPECIµCÒAREAÒAREÒ pletely unknown, everything is think- agreed upon, dynamics that may play a able even though one might consider it CRUCIALÒROLEÒINÒTHEÒFUTUREÒAREÒIDENTIµED Ò improbable. Peter Schwartz got to the and external events that could lead to point by stating: Scenarios are a tool to fundamental changes are taken into ac- help us make choices today with an count. Scenarios should be built by a understanding of how they might turn heterogeneous team whose members out (Schwartz 1991: 4). have different backgrounds and varying perspectives. Scenarios are not aimed at How do scenarios work? They do building consensus, quite the contrary; not spell out the only possible future, they need controversial debates to paint

1 This section has mainly drawn on The Geneva Scenarios on Global Economic Governance 2020, FES Geneva, 2009.

15 different and nuanced pictures of the fu- possible developments and could thus ture. Scenarios should be consistent and thwart the planning process? What can plausible even though some parties to we possibly do to prevent this from hap- the exercise may regard certain scenarios pening? In the dialogue between differ- as exceedingly unlikely and undesirable, ent societal groups, this method offers but no one should be able to prove any the advantage of describing different scenario impossible (Lempert/Popper/ future scenarios and helping to build Bankes 2003: 30). consensus for various future versions, as would be the case in an argument over In recent years the scenario method one possible future scenario. However, has also been applied as a tool for stra- each participant has to be ready to ac- tegic planning in the social and political knowledge the likelihood of the future spheres. scenarios presented by his/her political opponents. The core of the deliberations is not AÒ µRMLYÒ STATEDÒ GOALÒ NORÒ THEÒ WAYÒ ANDÒ For the purpose of illustrating the means to achieve this goal, but rather scenarios the team chose the metaphor the question: What if...? e.g. What of different trains. These illustrations are will happen if events occur which cur- catchy and, during public presentations rently are not actually predictable, but and discussions of the scenarios, have which are well within the bounds of proven to be very effective.

16 The Need for a Fresh Look

What will Bosnian and Her- on the basis of a clear analysis, a num- zegovinian society look like in 2025? And ber of options for the future and possible what developments will it go through by pathways leading to them. These scenari- then? Will it succeed to overcome the os may provide the basis for the initiation DEEPÒµSSURESÒTHATÒCHARACTERISESÒITÒTODAY Ò of discussion among policy makers and And if not, what options for its future decision takers, followed by an elabora- does the state of Bosnia and Herzegov- tion of which steps and measures need ina have at its disposal? The search for to be taken in order for certain future answers to these questions was the aim scenarios to become possible, or alterna- of a scenario planning exercise that was tively to prevent them from materialising. conducted between March and Novem- ber 2011 with 20 participants from all The scenario planning team was walks of life of Bosnian and Herzegovin- composed of 20 persons representing ian society. various backgrounds in politics, economics, academia, media and society, as The project was initiated by Friedrich- well as different political camps and dis- Ebert-Stiftung (FES) and was modelled tinctive ethnic backgrounds. In a very dy- after the Mont Fleur scenario-simulation namic process of discussion and analysis, GAMEÒ4HEÒ&%3ÒOFµCEÒINÒ#APEÒ4OWNÒUSEDÒ the participants succeeded, despite their a similar approach during the transition differing and partially contradictory po- from apartheid to democracy in South litical and ideological positions, to agree Africa at the beginning of the 1990s. ONÒµVEÒPOSSIBLEÒSCENARIOSÒFORÒTHEÒFUTUREÒ of the Bosnian and Herzegovinian soci- From the outset one thing was clear ety, symbolised metaphorically by using to all participants: the future cannot be different train names: predicted. Instead, scenario planning is an intellectual exercise used as an instru- x Dayton Mail Status quo ment for strategic planning. Thus the ob- x Trans BiH Arrow Functional decen- jective of scenario planning is to describe, tralised state

17 x BiH Union Express Functional cen- Group members were of the opinion tralised state THATÒTHEIRÒDEµNITIONÒFORÒTHEÒSTATUSÒQUOÒ x Western Balkan Inter City Regional SHOULDÒBEÒCLARIµEDÒASÒhTHEÒEXISTINGÒSTATEÒ reconnection of affairs (at a particular time) or the x Tripartite Border Train Dissolution situation as it currently exists. The con- cept of status quo is often used when The members of the group found a referring to political or social conditions. common language not only to describe The idea is often debated vis-a-vis the possible future scenarios, but also the dialectic between power systems that present situations of their communities. reinforce the status quo and those who All participants were aware of the acute seek to subvert it. danger that is rooted in the social and ideological divisions of society. Thus the Moreover, it should be stressed that year 2025 as a conceptual target point none of the scenario team members fa- of the various scenarios is only of sym- voured the dissolution scenario. Rather bolic meaning: the developments de- they viewed it as a plausible possibility, scribed in the scenarios could become but with different probable outcomes. reality even tomorrow.

18 Executive Summary

FES Bosnia and Herzegovi- Dayton Mail Status quo na 2025 - Scenarios on future developments OFFERSÒµVEÒDIFFERENTÒSCENARIOSÒONÒ In the year 2025 the constitutional how the country could look in the year structure of Bosnia and Herzegovina 2025. Its aim is to sensitize policy-mak- still remains the same two entities (in- ers to possible consequences of their de- cluding 10 cantons in the Federation of cisions, whether they are actions or non- BiH) as well as Brcko District, and with actions. The scenarios are intentionally three constituent peoples, Others and exaggerated, but they are not implau- Citizens. Although the implementation sible. They seek to further provoke the of some reforms have enabled BiH to existing debate on required reforms by receive EU candidate status, the state taking a fresh and unconventional look. is in a bad economic situation in comparison to neighbouring countries, fac- In order to facilitate cross-scenario ing intolerable levels of public spend- comparison, all scenarios are struc- ing, massive internal and external debt, tured along the same lines. They have as well as delayed payments of wages a common starting point, looking back ANDÒ OFÒ SOCIALÒ BENEµTSÒ 4HEÒ FUNCTIONINGÒ through time from the year 2025, be- of the system still depends on the par- ginning with stock-taking in the post- ticular agendas of politicians. Changes election year 2011 and developing from are taking place, but always in the same THEREÒAÒPATHWAYÒTOÒTHEÒSPECIµCÒSCENARIOÒ manner: at an extremely slow pace or as Each scenario then develops its unique a result of political self-interest to retain dynamic, which leads to different results. power, as well as under various international, regional and internal pressures. A synopsis of the proposed possible Croatia accessed the EU in 2013 and by outcomes is provided below. 2014 other neighbouring countries were granted candidate status.

19 Trans BiH Arrow Functional Western Balkan Inter City decentralised state Regional reconnection

By the year 2025, Bosnia and Her- In the year 2025, Bosnia and Herze- zegovina - a member of the European govina is part of the EU together with Union - is a functional decentralized Serbia, Croatia, Montenegro, Macedo- state with a functioning rule of law, re- nia and Kosovo. As a result, a new po- spect for human rights and a blooming litical paradigm has been created and economy, all of which are the result of partition along national or ethnic lines SUBSTANTIALÒ CONSTITUTIONALÒ CHANGESÒ 4HEÒ has become futile. However, before newly established political elites have the region arrived at this point of inte- managed to overcome the obstacles of gration it went through a decade-long the old political system, which was based process of reconnection that was driven on particular ethnic interests, and to cre- by several important motivational ele- ate a new structure, with a clear socio- ments: economic-interdependence; mu- economic policy that serves the interests tual sport and cultural values; a common of all citizens of the state and protection EU membership perspective; absence of mechanisms to ensure respect for the a language barrier; cultural regionalisa- rights of different groups. tion, among others. Decades of politi- CALÒSTALEMATE ÒECONOMICÒANDÒµSCALÒCRISESÒ that drained social welfare programs in BiH Union Express each and every country stripped off na- Functional centralised state tionalistic ideologies and showed to the full extent their long-term destructive In the year 2025, Bosnia and Herze- potential. Since these ideologies were govina is a functional centralised state not able to offer anything new, but the and a member of the European Union. same old mantra of ethnic division, soil, 4HEÒ CENTRALISEDÒ POLITICALÒ SYSTEMÒ ESTAB- blood and historical memories, people LISHEDÒAFTERÒTHEÒVIOLENTÒCON¹ICTÒANDÒSUB- had gradually started to seek an alter- sequent international military interven- native. More sober and pragmatic forces TIONÒENABLEDÒSIMPLIµEDÒDECISION MAKINGÒ thus got their chance. Regional recon- processes which resulted in political, nection had become a modus operandi economic and judicial reforms. Human that embraces connections rather than rights legislation is being implemented, disconnection points. the economy is on an upward path, unemployment rate is in decline, and social cohesion is on the increase.

20 Tripartite Border Train of the international community to pre- Dissolution VENTÒ VIOLENTÒ CON¹ICTÒ 4HESEÒ NEWÒ COUN- tries are now focused on their path to- In the year 2025, Bosnia and Herze- wards EU integration through internal govina no longer exists in its previous STRUCTURALÒCHANGEÒ4HEÒECONOMIESÒINÒTHEÒ FORMÒ 4HEÒ SMOULDERINGÒ ETHNICÒ CON¹ICTÒ newly formed countries are developing which had lasted for decades, culminat- DUEÒTOÒTHEÒIN¹UXÒOFÒFOREIGNÒDIRECTÒINVEST- ed in the dissolution of BiH into three ments and international aid. separate countries under the patronage

SCENARIOS BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA 2025

23 In the year 2025 the constitutional structure of Bosnia and Herzegovina still remains the same two entities (including 10 cantons in the Federation of BiH) as well as Brcko District, and with three constituent peoples, Others and Citizens. Although the implementation of some reforms have enabled BiH to receive EU candidate status, the state is in a bad economic situation in comparison to neighbouring countries, facing intolerable levels of public spending, massive internal and

24 Dayton Mail Status quo

EXTERNALÒDEBT ÒASÒWELLÒASÒDELAYEDÒPAYMENTSÒOFÒWAGESÒANDÒOFÒSOCIALÒBENEµTSÒ4HEÒ functioning of the system still depends on the particular agendas of politicians. Changes are taking place, but always in the same manner: at an extremely slow pace or as a result of political self-interest to retain power, as well as under various international, regional and internal pressures. Croatia accessed the EU in 2013 and by 2014 other neighbouring countries were granted candidate status.

25 After a very long and painful elites realised that their power base was procedure of endless negotiations in or- fragile. As a result the vast majority of der to form a government, a deteriorat- previous decisions came under re-ex- ed political situation emerged after the amination, primarily those on economic 2010 general elections, creating a politi- affairs. Due to the fact that the govern- cal stalemate which further contributed ments were in desperate need for re- to the economic decline. Even after the forms and foreign investments, the CoM Council of Ministers was agreed upon and other governments were formed at by the End of 2011, there was no sig- a much faster pace, and consisted partly NIµCANTÒ IMPROVEMENTÒ INÒ THEÒ POLITICALÒ of technical experts concerning the min- and economic situation, which was also istries for economic affairs. The reason IN¹UENCEDÒBYÒTHEÒCONSEQUENCESÒOFÒTHEÒ for this was that politicians were averse global economic crisis. Social decline, to taking responsibility for painful deci- the threat of debt crises and a lower sions in social matters and in restructur- standard of living led to strikes and ing the social and administrative system. further unrest. The EU persisted on full compliance with the basic principles of the rule of law. With huge resistance by affected elites, some indicative cases of corruption were brought to the courts.

The next general elections brought changes in the composition of the par- liaments, leading to more constructive leadership since the old

26 T i m e ORDERÒTOÒBECOMEÒFULL ¹EDGEDÒMEMBERSÒ pressure to of the European Union. Due to this BiH start a cycle remained more and more isolated, es- of progress PECIALLYÒSINCEÒTHEÒMODIµEDÒSTANDARDSÒATÒ and to remain the now surrounding external frontiers in power forced of the European Union caused increas- political parties INGÒDIFµCULTIESÒINÒEXPORTINGÒITSÒPRODUCTSÒ to loosen obstacles Additionally, there was internal pressure to the functionality among people living in poverty and ex- of institutions at all TERNALÒPRESSUREÒBYÒINTERNATIONALÒµNANCIALÒ levels, thus creating institutions and formal and informal cen- more effective coordi- ters of power. As a consequence, there nation mechanisms on EU matters and were efforts towards reform although the establishment of a common legal at a slow and painful pace. Despite the framework in terms of a single economic LACKÒ OFÒ THEÒ FULµLMENTÒ OFÒ %5Ò ACCESSIONÒ space, health and education standards. obligations, the EU granted candidacy The impact of these reforms was meant status for BiH for political and strategic to generate a push towards poverty re- reasons. duction and economic growth, investment opportunities, health and peaceful In 2025 the structure laid down in civic engagement. However, the out- the Dayton Peace Agreement remains in come, at least in the short-to-medium place in BiH, but with less obstacles be- term, was not all positive. tween different administrative units and a more functional economic space as a In 2013 Croatia became a full mem- result primarily of social pres- ber of the EU, and suddenly BiH lost a sure and economic necessi- large portion of the market for its prod- TIES ÒASÒWELLÒASÒTHEÒFULµL- ucts while imports increased. At the ment of the obliga- same time BiH was burdened by the tions originating repayment of the original obligations from the EU from the IMF stand-by arrangement. integration The surrounding countries had in time p r o c e s s set their priorities and started enforc- require- ing required reforms to improve mar- ments. ket economy mechanisms, secure social justice, improved employment opportunities and gain relative prosperity in

27 By the year 2025, Bosnia and Herzegovina - a member of the European Union - is a functional decentralised state with rule of law, respect of human rights and a blooming economy, which is the result of substantial constitutional changes. 4HEÒNEWLYÒESTABLISHEDÒPOLITICALÒELITESÒHAVEÒMANAGEDÒTOÒOVERCOMEÒTHEÒOBSTACLESÒOFÒ

28 Trans BiH Arrow Functional decentralised state

the old political system, which was based on particular ethnic interests, and to create a new structure, with a clear socio-economic policy that serves the interests of all citizens of the state and has established protection mechanisms to ensure the respect of the rights of different groups.

29 Year after year, the situa- year, public budgets were empty and tion in Bosnia worsened. The countrys the government imposed new taxes in economy was at an all time low. Unem- an attempt to maintain the functioning ployment, decay of the system of social of its big and complex administration. protection and all-round poverty caused All social compensations for demobil- massive social unrests. The dysfunctional ised soldiers and for casualties of war political system proved to be a major were terminated, while incentives for ex- obstacle in the process of Euro-Atlantic port-oriented companies were revoked. integration. Due to the lack of stability Popular discontent was manifested in a and legal uncertainty, no foreign direct growing opposition to the ruling ethno- investment could be attracted for the nationalist oligarchies, which were ac- development of the huge hydropower cused of masking the dreadful economic potential of the country. Nationalistic and social conditions by fuelling ethnic rhetoric, chauvinism and hate fuelled by CON¹ICTSÒ4RADEÒUNIONSÒANDÒNEWLYÒFOUND- the discourse of political parties and the ed citizens alliances organised a series media triggered random acts of inter- of strikes all over the country. ethnic violence designed to shift attention from the deteriorating economy, To prevent the destabilisation of the the lack of development strategies and country, a national convention was con- staggeringly high unemployment. vened under the patronage of the international community. It included rep- 4HEÒSECONDÒGLOBALÒECONOMICÒANDÒµ- resentatives of civil society, academia, nancial crisis of 2015 hit Bosnia and Her- trade unions and different social groups. zegovina severely. The prices of energy Its task was to amend the constitution on the global market skyrocketed, re- and elect a transitional government. In ¹ECTEDÒBYÒTHEÒENERGYÒCOSTSÒINÒTHEÒCOUN- this context, the international communi- try. Huge segments of society could no TYÒOFFEREDÒµNANCIALÒASSISTANCEÒANDÒLEGALÒ longer afford to heat their homes and expertise to help the transitional govern- took to the streets. By the end of the ment implement necessary reforms.

30 management of natural resources with A new state structure was formed, the focus on hydropower and renew- comprising three levels of government. able energy. The equality of all people The state level was to be comprised of one was to be ensured by the newly estab- President, Vice-Presidents, the bicameral lished Supreme Court. parliamentary system, and the central government. This government was to be The mid-level of governance was to given jurisdiction over the state military be comprised of territorial units with force, the single police force, internal se- their own administration designed to CURITY ÒMONETARYÒANDÒµSCALÒPOLICY ÒENERGYÒ WORKÒ EFµCIENTLYÒ ANDÒ WITHOUTÒ UNNECES- policy, natural resources, foreign policy sary costs. The territorial units were to and international relations, as well as be established according to geographic, higher education, tertiary medical care infrastructural, economic and cultural facilities and the communications sec- factors, taking into consideration the tor. Special attention ethnic dispersion of population wher- was paid to sus- ever possible. All units were to be giv- tainable develop- en mechanisms of protection against ment and the discrimination, while also reinforcing inter-ethnic respect and thus preventing the future endangerment of any ethnic, religious or social groups. The units were to be linked through a series of in- f r a s t r u c t u r a l d e v e l o p m e n t programmes as well as cross- border cooperation. These programs were to BEÒ µNANCEDÒ BYÒ grants and low- interest development loans provided by the international community in or-

31 The reforms, implemented by the transitional government as well as by the new government elected in 2018, stabilised the country. Legislation was reformed in order to remove adminis- d e r trative barriers for investments and to to boost provide a healthier climate for SMEs, as employ- well as to introduce tax reductions and ment in the subsidies that would increase employ- productive sectors. ment rate, boost exports and improve The Council of Territo- the countrys economic ratings. The rial Units was to be es- achievement of political, economic and tablished as a consulta- social stability causes a relaxation in eth- tive and planning body nic tensions and leads to a higher level tasked with proposing measures for the of social cohesion. These reforms led to social and economic development of EU candidate status for Bosnia and Her- territorial units to the state government zegovina in 2020 and its accession to and monitoring their implementation. the EU in 2025.

The third, municipal level, coordinat- Although the structure of political ed by the Council of Municipalities, was system in 2025 is still complex, the plan- to be given strong competences and ning, decision-making and implementa- charged with meeting most of citizens tion processes are developing in a much needs by providing services pursuant to MOREÒFUNCTIONALÒANDÒEFµCIENTÒWAYÒ4HISÒ the European Charter of Local Self-Gov- results in positive consequences for the ernment, a body which is guided by the Bosnian-Herzegovinian economy and a principle of subsidiarity. higher standard of living.

In the year 2025, Bosnia and Herzegovina is a functional centralised state ANDÒAÒMEMBERÒOFÒTHEÒ%UROPEANÒ5NIONÒ4HEÒCENTRALISEDÒPOLITICALÒSYSTEMÒESTABLISHEDÒ AFTERÒTHEÒVIOLENTÒCON¹ICTÒANDÒSUBSEQUENTÒINTERNATIONALÒMILITARYÒINTERVENTIONÒENABLEDÒ

34 BiH Union Express Functional centralised state

SIMPLIµEDÒDECISION MAKINGÒPROCESSES ÒWHICHÒRESULTEDÒINÒPOLITICAL ÒECONOMICÒANDÒJUDI- cial reforms. Human rights legislation is being implemented, the economy is on an upward path, unemployment rate is in decline, and social cohesion is on the increase.

35 Year after year, the situation Serbias accession was put on hold. This in Bosnia was worsening. By 2015, the stirred discontent among its citizens and countrys economy reached an all-time brought about the destabilisation of the low. Unemployment, the decay of the political situation in the country, exacer- system of social protection and all-round bated by demands for more autonomy in poverty caused massive social unrest. Vojvodina and the Sandzak, and also be- The dysfunctional and complicated po- cause of the still unresolved Kosovo issue. litical system proved to be a major obstacle in the process of Euro-Atlantic By the end of the year, political elites integration. After the 2010 Elections, in BiH were still unable to form a govern- and an extremely long delay in forming ment at the state level, culminating in the state government, the 2014 General discontent. At the same time, the inter- Elections proved to be an even larger di- national community pushed for consti- saster in terms of building a stable politi- tutional changes that would strengthen cal coalition at the entity and state level. the state competences, but which was Nationalistic rhetoric, chauvinism and unacceptable for the parties in Republika hate fuelled by the discourse of politi- Srpska. The politicians from RS argued cal parties and the media, triggered ran- that the stalemate prevented economic dom acts of inter-ethnic violence which development and undermined political were designed to shift attention from STABILITYÒ THATÒ IN¹UENCEDÒ BOTHÒ THEÒ STATEÒ the deteriorating economy, the lack of and the two entities. There was no com- development strategies and staggering mon state level economic strategy, while unemployment. µSCALÒ POLICIESÒ WEREÒ CAUSINGÒ DISCONTENT Ò especially regarding the distribution of In 2015, neighbouring Croatia was taxes and funds from the state level to- ALREADYÒ AÒ FULL ¹EDGEDÒ MEMBERÒ OFÒ THEÒ wards the entities and Brèko District. The %5ÒANDÒ3ERBIAÒWASÒINÒTHEÒµNALÒPHASEÒOFÒ RS politicians presented this as yet an- the candidacy process. However, due to other reason why, in their view, it was the enlargement fatigue within the EU, impossible for BiH to be maintained as

36 a state. Therefore, they decided to hold community pushed for a centralized referendum on the secession of the RS state in order to make communication from Bosnia and Herzegovina. Reactions and cooperation with the authorities from the Federation were massive and EASIER ÒFASTERÒANDÒMOREÒEFµCIENTÒ3ERBIAÒ volatile, the referendum being perceived µRMLYÒOPPOSEDÒTHEÒINTERVENTIONÒCLAIMINGÒ as a proclamation of war. that the interests of Serbs in BiH were endangered. However, after strong po- In the beginning of 2016, all three litical pressure by the international com- ethnic groups were mobilizing, fuelled munity it renounced its opposition. by rapid increase in ethnic tensions and hostile and openly aggressive pub- The goal of this mission was not only lic discourse which was supported and TOÒ PACIFYÒ THEÒ CON¹ICT Ò BUTÒ ALSOÒ TOÒ DIS- enforced by the media. Frequent at- empower the established ethnic politi- tacks on returnees in both entities, the cal elites, most of them in power since forming of paramilitary groups and the WARTIMEÒ &OLLOWINGÒ THEÒ PACIµCATIONÒ INÒ BREAKOUTÒOFÒARMEDÒCON¹ICTSÒTHREATENEDÒ THEÒ µELD Ò THEÒ INTERNATIONALÒ COMMUNITYÒ to escalate into a civil war. The escalat- convoked a national convention, coming violence prompted NATO to launch prising the representatives of civil soci- a military intervention. The swift reac- ety, academia, trade unions and other tion of the international community was social groups, was formed to amend an expression of the lessons learned from the past mistakes, especially those committed in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the 1992 1995 period. The objective of this mission was not only to pacify the CON¹ICT ÒBUTÒALSOÒTOÒµNALLYÒSTABI- lize the situation in the region by creating a functional state framework. After years of dealing with numerous institutions and representatives at 14 different governance levels, the EU and the rest of the international

37 the constitution and elect a transitional The 2017 General Elections produced government. new political elites, which emerged in the one-year period of transtional gov- Pressure was exerted on politicians ernment as a result of intensive lobby- TOÒADOPTÒAÒCONSTITUTIONÒDEµNINGÒ"OSNIAÒ ing of the international actors present in and Herzegovina as a centralised state BiH society. The international commu- with in-built mechanisms for the pro- nity developed an economic plan similar tection against any kind of discrimina- to the famous Marshall Plan, boost- tion. The new Constitution, adopted by ing infrastructure, employment and THEÒENDÒOFÒ ÒDEµNEDÒALLÒTHEÒPEOPLEÒ economy. This resulted in a relaxation in Bosnia and Herzegovina as citizens of ethnic tensions due to substantial im- with equal rights and individual free- provement of the quality of life and the doms and a political system designed standard of living for BiH citizens. The to comprise one President, one strong new state structure enabled the creation central government, a bicameral parlia- OFÒAÒUNIµEDÒANDÒSTRONGÒECONOMICÒPOLICYÒ ment and municipalities. Moreover, new and a sustainable development strategy, election legislation which, in combination with a set of legal was introduced to reforms, created a stable climate for for- protect ethnic and eign direct investments. The reduction of minority rights by the heavy administration made possible using the principle substantial subsidies and support pro- of mandate rota- grams for local companies, which was tion at all levels RE¹ECTEDÒ INÒ STABLEÒ ANDÒ STEADYÒ GROWTHÒ of gover- of the local economy, very much to the nance be- satisfaction of BiH citizens and the inter- tween the national community alike. Regional co- three larg- operation was further improved and the est ethnic COUNTRYÒWASÒMAKINGÒSIGNIµCANTÒPROGRESSÒ groups and towards Euro-Atlantic integration with Others. Any the help of its neighbours Croatia and future possibil- Serbia now both members of the EU. ity of blocking the functioning BiH was granted candidate status of the state and for EU accession in 2019 and became a resorting to elec- member in January of 2025. A stable po- tion rigging was litical and social environment in the coun- prevented. TRYÒPOSITIVELYÒIN¹UENCEDÒTHEÒENTIREÒREGIONÒ

In the year 2025, Bosnia and Herzegovina is part of the EU together with Serbia, Croatia, Montenegro, Macedonia and Kosovo. As a result, a new political paradigm has been created and partition along national or ethnic lines has become futile. But, before the Region came to that point of integration, it went through a decade-long process of reconnection that was driven by several important motivational elements: economic- interdependence; mutual sport and cultural values; a common EU membership perspective; no language barrier; cultural regionalisation, ETCÒ$ECADESÒOFÒPOLITICALÒSTALEMATE ÒECONOMICÒANDÒµSCALÒCRISESÒTHATÒDRAINEDÒSOCIALÒ

40 Western Balkan Inter City Regional reconnecion

welfare programmes in each and every country, stripped off nationalistic ideologies and showed to the full extent their long-term destructive potential. Since those ideologies were not able to offer anything new, but the same old mantra of ethnic division, soil, blood and historical memories, people had incrementally started to seek for an alternative. More sober and pragmatic forces thus got their chance. Regional reconnection had become a modus operandi that embraces the connections rather than disconnection points.

41 As they had neither the op- upgrade the economic environment and portunity, nor the capacity, to cope with instead of playing the irrational card of big European corporations on their ter- ethnic division, started playing the card rain, major companies in the Western of regional preferences and economic Balkan countries were pushing for clos- interests. Furthermore, by that time all er economic cooperation among their war criminals in the Balkans had been countries in order to improve poor infra- prosecuted and inter-ethnic tensions structure that posed heavy obstacles to came to rest. A wide-spread campaign their expansion. Because of the support for reconciliation under the slogan Nev- of the media controlled by economic er again war! took place in the whole oligarchs, and due to ongoing social region, accompanied by numerous cul- unrest, new political parties and lead- tural and sport exchange programs. The ers who came to power on the wave of existing regional structures, such as the an ideological paradigm shift, embraced Central European Free Trade Agree- economic interdependence as a work- ment (CEFTA) ing platform. They decided to

42 and the Regional Cooperation creation of WBEU was not meant to lead Council(RCC), the latters headquarters to a new Yugoslavia, but rather as an in- based in Sarajevo, were being used as a tegration half-step towards the EU. The platform for regional reconnection with EU served as a kind of model: European the overarching goal to better prepare integration started after World War II at the countries use of the EUs structural a very modest level, with the establish- and cohesion funds. This coincided with ment of the European Community of the intentions of the EU to create a com- Coal and Steel, and its main philosophy mon economic space at its South East- was economic integration up to such a ern border as a kind of waiting room level that war among its members would for EU membership. no longer be possible. There were no emotional issues at stake, but rather so- In a series of meetings, regional lead- ber economic interests. ers and EU representatives prepared the ground for the future. The Western By 2020, economic issues had be- "ALKANÒ %CONOMICÒ 5NIONiÒ 7"%5 Ò OFµ- come the main topic, while ethnic and cially came into existence at a regional national feelings lost their importance summit held in Sarajevo in 2017. The as the process of cooperation intensi- Bosnia-Herzegovinian capital was cho- µEDÒ(EAVYÒINVESTMENTÒINÒINFRASTRUCTUREÒ sen not only as the headquarters of the connecting the countries of the region RCC, but also because BiH is the geo- allowed the development of BiHs huge graphical heart of the region and forms potential of hydro-power and cross-bor- a kind of micro-sphere of the cultural- der environmental cooperation. This led ethnic-religious make-up of the region. not only to better economic prospects by enhancing regional trade, but to an WBEU was not intended to be a state increased feeling of shared cultural heri- or confederation per se, but rather to tage and identity in a union of around serve as an economically-driven integra- 20 million people that speak the same tion within the given EU mechanisms. language and share the same cultural Each and every country in WBEU was to and media space. The promotion of REMAINÒFULLYÒINDEPENDENTÒWITHÒAÒµRMÒIN- common economic interests led to bet- dividual perspective for EU membership. ter use of the EU cohesion and structural WBEU was to replace neither the EU as funds, as well as to joint rural and ag- a common goal, nor to presuppose that ricultural development projects. The re- all the countries involved should give connection of infrastructure culminated up their constitutional frameworks, in- in the establishment of a regional railway stitutional settings and sovereignty. The company. Joint business and sometimes

43 even diplomatic representations of the changed towards a functional federa- WBEU were opened around the world, tion without the ethno-veto mecha- although there was no central govern- nisms that used to be incorporated in ment for the Union, but rather, like in every segment of the decision-making the case of Germany and France, a com- process. This helped the government to mon interest and the need for economic BEÒEFµCIENTÒANDÒENABLEDÒITÒTOÒCATCHÒUPÒ solutions. BiH also became a gateway to with the regional EU dynamics. In 2025, the Turkish and Arab markets. BiH - together with other countries from the Region - was already a member of Altogether, the new regional pros- the European Union pects have created a new political paradigm, while national or ethnic partition in BiH has become worn out. As a consequence, the political system in BiH gradually

In the year 2025, Bosnia and Herzegovina no longer exists in its previous SHAPEÒ4HEÒSMOULDERINGÒETHNICÒCON¹ICT ÒWHICHÒHADÒLASTEDÒFORÒDECADES ÒCULMINATEDÒ in the dissolution of BiH into three separate countries under the patronage of the INTERNATIONALÒCOMMUNITYÒTOÒPREVENTÒVIOLENTÒCON¹ICTÒ4HESEÒNEWÒCOUNTRIESÒAREÒNOWÒ

46 Tripartite Border Train Dissolution

focused on their path towards EU integration through internal structural change. 4HEÒECONOMIESÒINÒTHEÒNEWLYÒFORMEDÒCOUNTRIESÒAREÒDEVELOPINGÒDUEÒTOÒTHEÒIN¹UXÒOFÒ foreign direct investments and international aid.

47 The neighbouring countries Election results over the past years have of BiH - Croatia, Serbia, Montenegro, also manifested the ethnic divisions in as well as Macedonia - join the Euro- the country. As a result of the segre- pean Union between 2013 and 2020, gated educational system, the post-war HAVINGÒ FULµLLEDÒ ALLÒ REQUIREMENTSÒ FORÒ AC- generation strongly identify with their cession and solved their national issues. respective communities. Attempts to en- By this time, BiH has not yet managed courage interethnic relations have failed. TOÒ SOLVEÒ ITSÒ ETHNICÒ QUESTIONÒ ORÒ FULµLLEDÒ Decision-makers have advocated that the requirements, and has therefore ethnic segregation is completely normal become isolated in the new European and that it is natural to live one beside neighbourhood. The necessary reform the other and not one with the other. of the state structure has not been put 2ELIGIOUSÒ IN¹UENCEÒ HASÒ BECOMEÒ MOREÒ into effect, which has led to the exten- present in all segments of life, especially sion and aggravation of problems which in politics and the educational system. have retarded the country for more than two decades: an overly fragile state level The stagnating conditions and well- versus entities which are behaving more established corruption at all levels and and more autonomously; the states pro- functions of the state have kept the gressive ethnic divisions in all forms of population in deep poverty, with in- civic life, especially in the economy and creasing lack of prospects and increasing media. 20 years after the war, the de- desperation. As these trends continue, mographic structure of the country is the political elites have focused increas- still very different from the pre-war pe- ingly on ethnic issues, with the aim of riod (1991). Refugees have not returned distracting citizens from the exacerbat- to their pre-war homes. Displaced per- ing economic and social crisis. The divid- sons have settled and organised their ed media support their respective entity lives in their respective entities or other policies by reporting in a biased and pro- countries throughout the world, thus ce- pagandistic way. While Republika Srp- menting the results of ethnic cleansing. ska has achieved a relatively functional

48 level of administration, both the overall After the last wave of enlargement state level and the Federation of BiH ANDÒTHEÒBIGÒµNANCIALÒCRISISÒINÒ ÒTHEÒ have become increasingly dysfunction- European Union showed great concern AL Ò WITHÒ PUBLICÒ INSTITUTIONSÒ IN¹ATEDÒ TOÒ for stabilising the last troublesome spot provide public functions for more and in the region. Both the international more people. This has resulted in huge community and local communities with- BUREAUCRACYÒANDÒREDUCEDÒTHEÒEFµCIENCYÒ in Bosnia and Herzegovina saw peaceful of the public sector, providing an ideal dissolution, as was achieved in some oth- environment for nepotism, political fa- er countries, as the only possible option. vouritism and other forms of corruption. Bosniak political representatives and the majority of Bosniak people became in- As of 2010, the presence of the increasingly frustrated with the constantly ternational community was reinforced; failing efforts to keep the country in- ITÒ STARTEDÒ TOÒ RE DEPLOYÒ FORMERÒ OFµCIALSÒ tegrated and came to terms with the who had worked in the Western Balkans fact that two out of the three ethnici- in the 1990s, clearly seeing certain risks ties could not identify with the state of developing in the near-failed state of Bosnia and Herzegovina. In the last few BiH. years a consensus was reached among European Union, United States, 4HEÒ TERMSÒ DEµNEDÒ BYÒ THEÒ $AYTONÒ Russia and Tur- Peace Agreement still had to be super- key to vised by the international community; the Special Representative of the Eu- ropean Union was still present in BiH, struggling to keep the COUNTRYÒ UNIµEDÒ "OTHÒ THEÒ %5Ò and the rest of the international community had no clear strategy for maintaining Bosnia and (ERZEGOVINAÒASÒAÒUNIµEDÒSTATE Ò and showed, instead, an inconsistent and often counterproductive approach to regulate developments in the country.

49 initiate a dissolution process. The out- were intensively involved in economic come of intensive diplomatic actions investments. was the Dayton 2 Conference held The international community re- in 2022 that resulted in a dissolution mained actively present in the three new agreement signed by the leaders of the states, including a military presence to three constituent peoples and support- calm unrest and prevent the use of the ed by the neighbouring countries that dissolution of BiH as a pretext for terror- were already members of NATO and the ist attacks. European Union. In 2025, the international communi- However, a part of the Bosniak pop- ty and particularly the EU are involved in ulation was opposed to the agreement diplomatic endeavours to keep all three and expressed their disappointment countries on the road to EU integration. through violent action. Furthermore, it is the international com- munitys task to ensure the protection of Nevertheless, three new countries human rights, particularly with regards were born, mostly following the borders to the presence of newly formed minori- of Republika Srpska and two groups of ties in the new ethnic states, the result cantons, one with a Bosniak and the of the redrawing of borders in some other with a Croat majority. Some terri- parts of what was once BiH. torial changes were made including the solution of the status of Brcko District to Having resolved ethnic issues, na- enable their territorial unity. Srebrenica tional leaders in the three newly estab- was declared an extraterritorial district lished states and the international com- with the status of memorial centre. munity are focused on state building The new Bosnian state maintained the and regional economic integration, thus legal continuity of the previous coun- opening the path towards complying try, including all diplomatic missions with the conditions to join the EU. abroad and its seat in the United Na- tions. Along with this process a donor conference and wide fundraising ac- TIONSÒWEREÒORGANISEDÒTOÒµNANCIALLYÒ support the stabilisation of the new states and to prevent potential radicalism. Turkey and some Arab countries

BACKGROUND TO THE SCENARIOS BIH 2025

Political scenario planing: Short Guideline1

In the ancient days of old scenario. Had Croesus better responded there once existed a powerful king- to the oracles answer, he might not dom called Lydia, ruled by King Croesus HAVEÒ ATTACKEDÒ 0ERSIAÒ BUTÒ INSTEADÒ µRSTÒ whose name is till today synonymous measured the military powers of the two with immense fortune. At the eastern empires and then looked for possible al- border of Lydia lay the emerging pow- lies to ensure his superiority. His main er of Persia under King Cyrus. Croesus mistake was to mix up the oracles an- wanted to attack Persia before it be- swer with his own wishful thinking. came stronger than his own empire. But FOLLOWINGÒTHEÒAGEÒOLDÒTRADITION ÒHEÒµRSTÒ Like oracles, scenarios do not give sent messengers to the famous oracle of a blueprint for decision-makers how to Delphi, asking whether or not he should act, but they give a message from which ATTACKÒ0ERSIAÒ4HEÒORACLEgSÒANSWERÒWASÒ the recipients can draw their conclusions. If you attack Persia, you will destroy a This is what happened with the famous great kingdom. Croesus then attacked Mont Fleur scenarios in South Africa in Persia, but lost and his own empire was the early nineties of the last century, in destroyed. which I had the privilege to participate. Almost twenty years later, the long term This story demonstrates the essence µNANCEÒ MINISTERÒ ANDÒ MAINÒ ARCHITECTÒ OFÒ and usefulness of scenarios. Like the an- South Africas economic policy, Trevor cient oracles, scenarios do not give cer- Manuel, said of this scenario exercise: tain predictions of the future but rather I could close my eyes and give you offer different pictures of possible fu- those scenarios like this. Ive internal- tures, thereby enabling decision-makers ized them and if you have internalized and stakeholders to adapt their strate- something then you carry it with you for gies in order to reach or avoid a certain life. Why had Manuel internalised the

1 Copyright Winfried Veit.

55 Mont Fleur scenarios? Because they had Origins of and reasons for scenario a big impact on the direction of the eco- building nomic policy the new ANC-led government was carrying out, and because this Scenarios were originally developed government unlike Croesus did not after World War II for military purposes mix up its wishful thinking with the sce- in order to prepare the armed forces for narios messages. If wishful thinking had unpredictable and unforeseeable events. prevailed, the new government would In the early seventies of the last century, have carried out a populist economic in the face of increasing uncertainty and policy with huge state expenditures complexity, private companies started but with dire long term consequences, working with scenarios and developed clearly shown in one of the scenarios. In- their own methodologies, the most fa- stead, the government opted for anoth- mous of which is the multinational Shell er scenario, in which the governments Oil companys scenario approach. Later, policies were sustainable and where the government agencies, non-governmen- country took a path of inclusive growth tal organizations, foundations and aca- and democracy. demia also recognised the usefulness of scenario planning in order to assess po- The opposite was the case with an- litical, societal and global developments, other scenario exercise I experienced in addition to the hitherto prevailing in Israel in the years 1999-2000, called military and business interests. Already Israel 2025 Scenarios of future devel- in 1972, the Club of Rome had pub- opments. Due to the unstable internal lished its famous study on the Limits of situation where minority parties could Growth, thereby using a kind of early block any political decision, a business- scenario approach. This study had a great as-usual policy has prevailed since then impact on the unfolding debate about despite the fact that the scenarios clear- ecological issues and on the formation ly demonstrated the disastrous conse- of the ecological movement worldwide. quences of such a policy and that the This is another example of how scenario scenarios had been presented to major PLANNINGÒCANÒIN¹UENCEÒNOTÒONLYÒGOVERN- decision makers of almost all political ment action but also contribute to public camps. Only ten years later, far from debate and even promote the formation 2025, these consequences are already of civil society and political movements visible with some of the worst scenarios (green parties). becoming more and more probable. The following remarks draw mainly from my personal experience with

56 scenario planning in different countries desirable trends where none exist or ig- and continents, but also from some of nore unwanted but real patterns. Hu- THEÒ MOSTÒ IN¹UENTIALÒ SCENARIOÒ PLANNINGÒ mans are notoriously bad at estimating methods and institutions, like Shell, likelihoods because they greatly overesti- Global Business Network and z-punkt, as MATEÒTHEIRÒCONµDENCEÒINÒTHEÒCOURSEÒOFÒFU- well as from authors like Peter Schwartz ture events and simultaneously hold be- and Lempert et.al. (See bibliography). liefs that violate basic laws of probability. Human biases, coupled with an inability The starting point for scenario plan- to track the implications of long causal ning is the following statement by John chains, may skew judgments in ways not Maynard Keynes, the famous economist easily recognized (Lempert et al, p. 25). and one of the founding fathers of the International Monetary Fund after World In contrast, scenario-based planning War II: We simply do not know. What is designed precisely to grapple with this Keynes meant, is that nobody can fore- multiplicity and unpredictability. There- see the future even if applying the most fore they do not offer forecasts nor do sophisticated computer programs. For a they deliver strategies. Instead they offer long time, forecasting has been and pictures of possible futures, which allow partially is still today, an instrument that decision makers to take measures in or- tries to predict future developments. Such der to avoid undesirable developments methods and techniques like Delphi, Fore- and/or to contribute to a desirable envi- sight or Trend Exploration all derive from ronment. Scenarios are a tool for help- the past and attempt to describe how the ing us to take a long view in a world of key factors and with them the whole set- great uncertainty. They are stories about ting will develop in the future. The obvi- the way the world might turn out tomor- ous disadvantages of these methods are row, stories that can help us recognize a limited time horizon and the disregard and adapt to changing aspects of our for discontinuities (also called critical un- present environment. Scenario planning certainties). Therefore, all of these ap- is about making choices today with an PROACHESÒ µNDÒ THEIRÒ STRENGTHSÒ TEMPEREDÒ understanding of how they might turn by their inability to confront the challenge out (Schwartz, p. 3). of multiple plausible futures. This has to do with human weakness, which tends to overestimate the existing situation Scenario planning methodology and to think that things will continue in the future as they are now: Faced with Scenario building is an art, not a masses of data, humans often recognize science. It does not use quantitative

57 methods but is a qualitative approach, SCENARIOÒ TEAMÒ SHOULDÒ RE¹ECTÒ THEÒ DIFFER- based on intuition, creativity, courage ent political, social, demographic, gen- and unorthodox thinking. At the same der, educational and professional strata time it is team work whereby the pro- of a country or region and also include cess (of scenario building) is almost as external expertise. However, the number important as the results (i.e. the sce- of participants should not exceed more narios). This can clearly be seen by the than 20-25 people. The reason for this example of the Mont Fleur Scenarios, is that everybody should have a voice WHICHÒ NOTÒ ONLYÒ IN¹UENCEDÒ GOVERNMENTÒ and enough time to articulate himself or orientation but also led to a greater un- herself, and also because scenario build- derstanding amongst rival and even hos- ing workshops are working sessions tile positions of the team members (ANC and not classical seminars. They are vs. white minority representatives) which democratic exercises (round tables), later turned out to have a positive im- where no hierarchy exists and where pact on the peaceful outcome of the ne- every participant has the same impor- gotiations. The same is true for the Israel tance. There is no separation between scenarios where peace activists, Jewish speakers and public and there are settlers and representatives of the Arab no lectures or long debates between the minority more then once clashed during participants. the scenario building process but later agreed on the four scenarios and built As scenarios are a collective prod- trust among themselves albeit with no uct, the team as a whole must iden- avail concerning the political situation. tify with them. However, there need not Even on a less emotional global issue it be consensus but rather respect for the was hard for some team members of the position of the others. Scenarios have Geneva scenarios on global economic always to be put into question; quite governance, which I directed in the years naturally, they cannot be complete nor 2008/09, to agree with all four scenarios RE¹ECTÒALLÒTHEÒVALUESÒANDÒPERSPECTIVESÒOFÒ and there were almost emotional discus- team members with their different back- sions about a rather sober issue. grounds. Scenarios should not look too polished; on the contrary, they have These examples show how impor- to be considered as a success if they call tant the scenario team and its composi- for further discussion and they have to tion are for the outcome of a scenario be tested consequently for consistency planning process, but also how such a and plausibility. Some parties to the ex- PROCESSÒCANÒIN¹UENCEÒANDÒCHANGEÒSTALLEDÒ ercise may regard certain scenarios as positions and longstanding prejudices. A exceedingly unlikely and undesirable,

58 but no one should be able to prove any Shells approach exploring the future. scenario impossible. 3HELLÒWASÒONEÒOFÒTHEÒµRSTÒMULTINATIONALÒ companies to conduct scenario planning The question of how many scenari- in a systematic way and later to expand os should be built cannot be answered it from narrow business views towards a in a general manner; this depends on more general view under the title Peo- the subject matter. However, there ple and Connections: Global Scenarios should not be too many scenarios and to 2020. This means that Shell recog- one should avoid looking at them sim- nised in an early stage, that business in- plistically as positive, negative or terests cannot be looked at without tak- mainstream. This would have more to ing into account the political, social and do with wishful thinking than with se- ecological environment. The Mont Fleur rious scenario building and one should scenarios, for example, were conducted always bear in mind that not everything by Adam Kahane, at that time the head is positive or negative for everybody in of Shells scenario team who during this the same way. An interesting example exercise recognised the importance of from literature in this respect is The Al- political and cultural issues and who exandria Quartet, a collection of four later became an international organ- novels written by Lawrence Durrell. Each iser, designer and facilitator of scenario novel deals with the same subject but projects on issues like the peace process from the perspective of four different in Guatemala, unblocking a political people closely connected to each other. stalemate in the Philippines or dealing The result is four different scenarios with widening cultural and ideological for the same setting with different views schisms in Israel. He is also the author a literary example for how people look of several bestselling books on scenario at the same issue through their own planning. glasses. To put it simply, the Shell scenarios follow three steps: orientation, building 4HEÒTHREEÒPILLARSÒOFÒSCENARIOÒBUILDING ANDÒ AFµRMATIONÒ 4HESEÒ THREEÒ PILLARSÒ OFÒ scenario planning are usually the themes As explained above, there are a num- of three workshops, each of which deals ber of scenario building approaches, with one of these issues. Orientation which in general differ only slightly. In MEANS Ò µRST Ò IDENTIFYINGÒ THEÒ ISSUEÒ ATÒ my opinion, the most consistent and stake (which sounds easier than it is); proven methodology, which has been second, taking into account the present applied in all my scenario exercises, is situation, the underlying assumptions

59 every participant holds and learning to exist, agricultural surface will dimin- more about the challenges a country/ ish and biological agriculture will slightly region/organisation faces; and third, ex- increase. This scenario is not very help- ploring the many driving forces that ful for decision makers. Or, for example, could shape the future. By driving forces when you are looking at the future of a we mean agents of change that in- business centre in a conference hotel in ¹UENCEÒ FUTUREÒ DEVELOPMENTSÒ INÒ EITHERÒ the next ten years, you should not for- a predictable or unpredictable way (the get to look at the future of the hotel in latter also called critical uncertainties). general, because nobody will stay in a Building means telling stories by the hotel just because of the business cen- members of the scenario team or creat- tre (examples taken from Wilms, p. 71). ing headlines of newspapers in the time In the second step we look at the pres- horizon we are dealing with. From these ent situation and how every team mem- stories, we can usually cluster out- ber sees it. Although scenarios paint a lines of what will later become scenarios picture of life in the future, they must and which will be elaborated in work- be rooted in what is happening in the ing groups. !FµRMATION means testing present. They must show a sequence of the scenario outlines, mainly regarding events, decisions, attitudes and actions plausibility and consistency, getting the that brought us to the future world be- AFµRMATIONÒBYÒTHEÒWHOLEÒSCENARIOÒTEAMÒ ing described in a given scenario. This and then writing the actual scenarios. has nothing to do with extrapolating or forecasting, but rather it takes into ac- Orientation:Ò THEÒ µRSTÒ STEPÒ INÒ THISÒ count from our starting-point for build- phase is identifying the issue at stake. ing our scenarios, while at the same This issue is more important than one time clarifying the underlying assump- might think. If you put the question too tions of every participant in the scenario GENERALLY Ò YOUÒ MIGHTÒ HAVEÒ DIFµCULTIES Ò exercise and learning (from external ex- ending up with plausible and consistent perts) about the major challenges the scenarios. If you put it too narrowly, you IDENTIµEDÒ ISSUEÒ FACESÒ )NÒ THEÒ THIRDÒ STEPÒ might overlook important factors and we identify driving forces; these are fac- issues, which could also severely limit tors or developments that push a system the consistency and plausibility of the (actors, institutions) in one or the other scenarios. To give two examples: if you direction. They are elements that move look at the future of Swiss agriculture in the plot of a scenario, that determine the coming ten years in a general way, the storys outcome (Schwartz, p. 107). you might end up wit the following sce- There are predictable and unpredict- nario: Swiss agriculture will continue able driving forces, the latter also called

60 critical uncertainties; this means dis- - Plausibility: this means that the turbing events or discontinuities that developments described must be consi- could lead to a radically changed envi- dered as possible which not necessarily ronment. They cannot be predicted, but means that they will happen. The future they might happen and therefore must paths and pictures described in the sce- be taken into account. nario must be imaginable and should not be considered as impossible. Building:Ò(AVINGÒIDENTIµEDÒTHEÒISSUEÒ - Consistency: this means that the at stake and the major driving forces, future paths and pictures in a given we can start with building the scenarios. scenario should be consistent and sho- 4HEÒµRSTÒSTEPÒINVOLVESÒMEMBERSÒOFÒTHEÒ uld not contradict themselves in certa- scenario team telling stories about in aspects or even exclude themselves how they could imagine the future. completely. While these stories are not yet scenarios, - Differentiation: scenarios sho- THEYÒ AREÒ AÒ µRSTÒ STEPÒ TOWARDSÒ ELABORAT- uld be clearly distinguishable from ing them. A given number of stories can each other. They must offer alternati- then be clustered into different blocs ve pictures of the future in order to be which later may become real scenarios. comparable. Another pathway to creating scenarios - Clearness: the developments and is to imagine future headlines of news- pictures in a scenario should be easily papers published at the time horizon of understood. This means that they should the scenarios (for example 2025). An BEÒSUFµCIENTLYÒDETAILEDÒBUTÒONÒTHEÒOTHERÒ example for this shortened version of hand they should not combine too many scenario building is the Balkans Daily, driving forces and critical uncertainties. published in the year 2015 as a result - Transparency: scenarios always, of a scenario exercise conducted from either implicitly or explicitly, embody 2004-2005 in the Balkan region by two perceptions and judgments. It should be internationally operating NGOs (CASIN made clear how assumptions and opti- and MI). Based on these clusters, which ons (for example the choice of critical are usually already a kind of scenario uncertainties) came about. outline, several working groups elabo- rate the actual scenarios and present All this has to be tested by the mem- them to the whole team. bers of the scenario team and by external experts. The last step is writing (and !FµRMATION According to most sce- in most cases rewriting several times) the nario techniques, a good scenario should µNALÒSCENARIOÒVERSIONÒBYÒTHEÒSCENARIOÒDI- have the following characteristics: rector and coordinators.

61 The Pathway towards the Scenarios BiH 2025

The scenario project on the methodology and a warming up Bosnia and Herzegovina 2025 lasted amongst the team members. from March 2011 to November 2011, led by the FES country director and his coordinators. The scenario project was 1. Orientation facilitated by Dr. Winfried Veit, who has longstanding experience in scenario a) Review of the present situation planning, e.g. the Mont Fleur scenarios in South Africa 1991-92, the Israel On Friday, April 8, we started the orien- 2025 scenarios 1999-2000 and The tation phase with a review of the present Geneva Scenarios on Global Economic situation, as this would serve as a point of Governance 20202008-09. This coor- departure to the future. The team mem- dination team managed the process and bers came up with a long list of mostly guided the scenario team. It provided negative factors highlighting the present technical inputs and shaped the exercise. DIFµCULTÒSITUATIONÒINÒ"OSNIAÒANDÒ(ERZEGOV- ina. We entitled this list Joint in crisis, as In the scenario building exercise we the initial conclusion of all the participants applied the methodological framework regarding the situation in Bosnia and of the Shell scenarios. The scenario Herzegovina was that the country is in a building consists of three phases: ori- PERMANENTÒCRISISÒANDÒTHEÒSTATEÒISÒNOTÒEFµ- ENTATION ÒBUILDINGÒANDÒAFµRMATIONÒ4HEÒ ciently functioning. Ever since the country scenario building phase is described in gained sovereignty in 1991, immediately greater detail below. followed by four years of war, the crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina was, and still is, Orientation was accomplished at a key attribute of the political, social and a workshop in Vlaiæ from 7 9 April economic state of affairs. 2011, where in the second part the building process was initiated. The The main elements of the political workshop began with an introduction to CRISISÒIDENTIµEDÒBYÒTHEÒTEAMÒWEREÒFEARÒ

62 of endangerment coming from other ethnic groups; prevalence of the ethnic b) Identifying driving forces principle; bad/non-existent interethnic relations; ethnically segregated curricula Driving forces are external factors in schools and universities; lack of cul- that have the potential to push a system TUREÒOFÒCOMPROMISEÒDEµCIENCYÒOFÒPEACEÒ in different directions. They are the ele- building and reconciliation; lack of civic ments that move the plot of a scenario, culture; big, costly and ineffective ad- that determine the storys outcome (Pe- ministration; ethnic-driven manipulation ter Schwartz). of the people by political stakeholders; and disagreement on the involvement of 4HEÒSCENARIOÒTEAMÒIDENTIµEDÒTHEÒFOL- the international community. lowing seven driving forces, which will shape the future of the country: The main elements of the economic - Economy ANDÒ SOCIALÒ CRISISÒ IDENTIµEDÒ BYÒ THEÒ TEAMÒ - Demography are: lack of strategy of sustainable devel- - Education opment; lack of sustainable management - Media of natural resources; almost 20% of the - EU integration people living below the poverty line; high - Regional stability unemployment rate of about 44 %; weak - International community social protection system and empty state COFFERSÒ¹AWEDÒPRIVATISATIONÒPROCESSÒLEAD- c) Identifying critical uncertainties ing to mostly negative economic development; ageing society and brain drain; and Critical uncertainties are disturb- negative foreign investment and capital ing events or discontinuities that could ¹IGHTÒDUEÒTOÒREDÒTAPEÒANDÒLEGALÒUNCERTAINTY lead to a radically changed environment. They cannot be predicted, but they The political, economic and social ele- might happen. ments of the on-going crisis are locked in a downward spiral of mutual causes and 4HEÒSCENARIOÒTEAMÒIDENTIµEDÒTHEÒFOL- effects. Simultaneous intervention at all lowing four critical uncertainties: three levels is needed to reverse it. The - Human catastrophe in the Medi- team argued that if this situation contin- terranean region ues the problems of BiH will be exacer- - Disagreement on NATO bated and perhaps lead to social unrest membership ANDÒ DEEPENEDÒ CON¹ICTÒ ANDÒ MIGHTÒ EVENÒ - Social unrest endanger the existence of the state. - EU implosion/collapse

63 2. Building of a second workshop in Neum from 2-4 June 2011. The draft scenarios were fur- a) First phase: Vlaiæ ther elaborated in working groups, taking into account the comments, amendments !FTERÒµNISHINGÒTHEÒORIENTATIONÒPHASE Ò and questions by the team members. we immediately started the building phase. Based on the results of the orienta- Ñ!F´RMATION tion phase, the team members presented many short stories or newspaper head- 4HEÒµNALISEDÒSCENARIOSÒWEREÒTHENÒPRE- lines in the year 2025 that were clus- sented in the second part of the workshop tered by the coordinating crew. The result TOÒTHEÒWHOLEÒTEAMÒFORÒAFµRMATIONÒ&OURÒ were several very rough outlines of pos- scenarios were accepted unanimously: sible scenarios, that later were discussed - Regional reconnection and further elaborated in working groups. - Functional decentralized state These scenario outlines were presented by - Functional centralized state the working groups to the whole team on - Dissolution Saturday morning and further discussed, especially as regards their consistency, However, no consensus could be plausibility and logic. The scenario team reached on the Status Quo scenario. agreed on 5 draft scenarios: - Functional decentralised state A third meeting took place at Jaho- - Functional centralised state rina 2-3 September 2011. At this meet- - Regional economic integration ing, the partially revised four scenarios - Status quo WEREÒµNALLYÒAFµRMEDÒBYÒTHEÒWHOLEÒTEAMÒ - Peaceful dissolution and the illustrations adopted. The working group on the Status Quo scenario These draft scenarios were then fur- came up with a new version, which how- ther elaborated and written by the coordi- ever still had some weaknesses concern- nating crew immediately after the working consistency and logical structure. shop. They were then sent to all the team members in time for them to be prepared !TÒ AÒ µNALÒ MEETINGÒ INÒ "ERNRIED'ER- for the second phase of the building pro- many from 18-20 November 2011, the cess and to comment on the drafts. Status Quo scenario was revised and approved by the group and than sent by b) Second phase: Neum electronic mail to the other members of THEÒSCENARIOÒTEAMÒFORÒµNALÒAFµRMATIONÒ The second phase of the scenario BUILDINGÒTOOKÒPLACEÒDURINGÒTHEÒµRSTÒPARTÒ

64 Participants individual Stories

Lejla Èaueviæ-Suæeska Bosnia and Herzegovina, July 15th 2025.

Bosnia and Herzegovina will complete all the work. It is expected that host the next Winter Olympic Games in as a result Bosnia and Herzegovina will 2030. The decision was adopted yester- ACHIEVEÒFULLÒµNANCIALÒRECOVERYÒINÒTHISÒECO- day and resulted in great celebrations NOMICÒSECTORÒ/URÒCOUNTRYÒWILLÒµNALLYÒBEÒ across the country. It represents the linked to regional highways, and most greatest achievement of the whole state of the present transportation problems of Bosnia and Herzegovina after the war will be resolved. Thus, we will surely be that ended 30 years ago. It is, of course, the biggest European construction site the result of huge efforts made in Bos- during the next several years. However, nia and Herzegovina during the past ten workers in the construction sector are years, and especially in the period since not the only ones who received the infor- the country became an EU member in mation from the International Olympic Ò#ITIZENSÒWILLÒµNALLYÒHAVEÒAÒCHANCEÒ Committee with a smile on their faces. to show the world once again that they There was a lot of joy yesterday among are able to host such a huge and impor- employees in the tourism industry and tant event, as well as to demonstrate metal industries, catering and trading their world-famous hospitality. sectors, etc. We will need to build ap- proximately 30 new hotels, numerous It is expected that 100,000 work po- motels and hostels and, of course, many sitions will be created due to the need restaurants, bars and other similar plac- to building all the required premises. es where, during the Games, visitors and Olympic sites on Bjelanica, Igman and tourists will have a chance to fully enjoy Jahorina, as well on Vlaiæ, need recon- their stay in Bosnia and Herzegovina. As struction, and domestic construction a result, workers from the above-men- companies will have the opportunity to tioned sectors, as well as the rest of our

65 countrys citizens, see opportunities for will be a great challenge for decision- more work and higher salaries during makers in our country. There must be the period of preparations for the up- some amendments in the present leg- coming Olympic Games, as well as for islation and other relevant documents, the period during and after the Games. which will allow the Organizing Com- It will certainly decrease our unemploy- mittee to continue its work in the best ment rate, which is, unfortunately, still possible way. There is lot of work that among the highest in the EU. needs doing, but we should take one step at a time. A lot of political decisions have to be adopted in the next few months and it

66 Duka Juriiæ BiH 2025

BiH is a single state with two opening it during the election campaign entities that each have a high level of in 2026. autonomy. However this does not produce political and other tensions as was The Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina the case in the past, because Bosnia and is still working on a number of war crime Herzegovina is now a member of Euro- cases. The Hague Tribunal for the Former pean Union. Although there is some im- 9UGOSLAVIAÒISÒCLOSEDÒ4HEREÒISÒNOÒUNIµEDÒ provement in the quality of education, view on recent history, i.e. the period THEÒ DIFµCULTIESÒ FROMÒ THEÒ PREVIOUSÒ DE- from 1991 to 1995, but the atmosphere cade have affected young people most among peoples of different nationality is deeply. Due to the economic crisis, lack better. While they do not share the same of jobs and lack of a vision for the fu- views of history, they share the same TURE ÒMANYÒOFÒTHEMÒHAVEÒDECIDEDÒTOÒµNDÒ land, as well as economic and social is- a better place for themselves outside the sues. EU and NATO membership have country. contributed most to the situation where ordinary people think more about daily Although BiH has become a mem- issues (raising their children, studying ber of the EU, it still faces a number of and work), than about political divisions. economic and social problems because of the high level of corruption and the There is one President with two Vice- slowness of political and economic re- Presidents with more or less similar au- forms. Its GDP is still one of the lowest thorities as previous ones. The state in- in the region, near to that of Kosovo and stitutions are stronger because that was Albania. The country faces problems in one of the conditions to become a mem- agriculture and most produce is import- ber of the EU. ed, from Serbia and Croatia in particular. 4HEÒ /FµCEÒ OFÒ THEÒ (IGHÒ 2EPRESENTA- #ORRIDORÒ CÒ ISÒ ALMOSTÒ µNISHEDÒ 0OLI- tive does not exist any more. OHR was ticians are considering the possibility of closed in 2015. The High Representative

67 celebrated the 20th Anniversary of the The implementation of Annex 7 of Dayton Agreement and then left Bosnia Dayton Accord has failed. There is no and Herzegovina. SIGNIµCANTÒ NUMBERÒ OFÒ REFUGEESÒ THATÒ RE- turned to their homes.

68 Muharem Bazdulj

Although I know that we are Headlines II not supposed to think about scenarios for BiH in 2025 either in terms of wish- - BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA IS THE ful thinking or in our fears, I have writ- ONLY COUNTRY IN THE WESTERN ten two short series of headlines where BALKANS THAT IS NOT PART OF THEÒµRSTÒSERIESÒREPRESENTSÒHEADLINESÒFROMÒ THE EU a positive version of the future, while the latter is from a negative one. - S A D ANNIVERSARY: 14 YEARS AFTER ITS FIRST SUSPENSION, Headlines I BOSNIAN FOOTBALL ASSOCIATION STILL SUSPENDED FROM UEFA - BOSNIAN GDP REACHES 70% OF AND FIFA EU AVERAGE - T R A G I C ACCIDENT IN BOSNIAN - N O T VIDEOTON AGAIN: MOUNTAINS: MINEFIELDS ARE ZELJEZNICAR FC IN SEMI FINALS OF STILL OUT THERE EUROPE UEFA LEAGUE1

- BOSNIAN MOUNTAINS - THE CENTRE OF EUROPEAN WINTER TOURISM

1 This is an allusion to the famous defeat of Zeljeznicar soccer club from 1985. when their team lost TOÒTHEÒ(UNGARIANÒ6IDEOTONÒINÒTHEÒ5%&!ÒSEMI µNALSÒMATCHÒ)FÒ:ELJEZNICARÒHADÒWON ÒTHEYÒWOULDÒHAVEÒ PLAYEDÒAGAINSTÒTHEÒFAMOUSÒ2EALÒ-ADRIDÒINÒTHEÒµNALS

69 Amer Kapetanoviæ BiH at the heart of regional reconnection

By the year 2025, Bosnia After a long stalemate in infrastruc- and Herzegovina will enter the European tural reconnections of the region, held Union and NATO. After decades of na- hostage by nationalisms, the countries tionalism, ethno-national separatism and OFÒTHISÒREGIONÒHAVEÒµNALLYÒDECIDEDÒTOÒCRE- collectivism, political elites lost their radi- ate a better road and railway network cal grip, simply because they were outma- using EU structural funds. neuvred by political rationalism. Passing through the EU and NATO standardisa- Infrastructure tion tunnel, BiH has managed to trans- form itself thoroughly, thus creating new By 2014, Bosnia and Herzegovina societal parameters: individual prosperity, and Croatia (at that time the only mem- instead of collective disguise; prosperity ber of the EU in the region) have jointly of the overall society based on educa- applied for EBRD credit and EU funds in tion, economic progress and inter-depen- order to construct a part of the Corridor dence, instead of mono-ethnic autism. 5c, from Sarajevo via Mostar to the Port As values that are prone to re-connect of Ploce, where it connects to the Za- rather than separate, they pushed the in- greb-Split-Ploce Motorway and part of terest groups forward to embrace a new BiH territory via the Trebinje Dubrovnik political philosophy. The same language, section). the same culture, economic inter-depen- dence and relatively large and attractive In addition, BiH and Montenegro market, made politicians start thinking have jointly prepared a feasibility study about winning the hearts and minds of for the railway corridor between Sara- ordinary people by providing them with jevo and Podgorica, which will further the opportunity to identify themselves lead towards Skopje and Athens, and with a broader entity, beyond their own towards Tirana and Durres. statelets a region that is big enough and IN¹UENTIALÒ ENOUGHÒ TOÒ BEÒ TAKENÒ SERIOUSLYÒ Based on the regional Energy and as a player within the EU. Transportation charters, BiH, Montenegro,

70 Macedonia and Kosovo have jointly es- Agreement had shown that each country tablished the Regional Star Alliance Air would save around 10 million Euros an- Corporation with an asset 300 million nually by implementing the Agreement. %UROSÒANDÒ¹EETÒOFÒÒAIRPLANESÒ4HISÒISÒAÒ result of long-lasting effort on all sides to Economy ACHIEVEÒ SELF SUSTAINABILITYÒ INÒ THEÒ µELDÒ OFÒ air transport. Using EU Diagonal Accumulation as a starting point, BiH, Serbia, Montene- Political cooperation gro and Macedonia have succeeded in establishing many joint ventures, espe- Following the successful Scandinavian CIALLYÒINÒTHEÒµELDSÒOFÒAGRICULTURE ÒTHEÒTEX- example, BiH, Serbia, Montenegro and tile industry and renewable energy. They Croatia have established joint cultural cleverly use the so-called source diver- centres in New York, Moscow, Beijing, SIµCATIONiÒ TOÒ SUPPLEMENTÒ EACHÒ OTHERgSÒ Tokyo, Berlin, Paris, and London. As of efforts in reaching the maximum pro- 2020, the four countries hold a joint re- ductivity and presence on EU and third ception for national days, based on a bi- markets. lateral agreement on common diplomatic efforts that the respective governments Sports signed on 2018. According to this Agree- ment, the countries signatories of this &ORÒTHEÒµRSTÒTIMEÒAFTERÒTHEÒBREAKUPÒ Agreement are obliged to offer to each of the former Yugoslavia, BiH, Croatia, other diplomatic and consular services in Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia and the countries and areas where the other Kosovo have established a joint football countries do not have their own embas- league. Serbia, BiH and Croatia have sies or consular missions. The feasibility jointly applied for hosting the World study done prior to the signing of the Football Cup.

71 Srðan Mazalica 2025 Balkan Press (Agency news)

Mostar: European Capital of Culture Newspapers have become history?! in 2026?! The last printed newspaper has been The Herceg-Bosna Minister of Cul- CLOSEDÒINÒ")(ÒDUEÒTOÒµNANCIALÒPROBLEMSÒ ture lobbied at the Council of Ministers Dnevni Avaz, the newspaper with the Meeting in Brussels for Mostar to be largest circulation in BIH in the past, has pronounced the European Capital of been shut down. Culture in 2026, instead of Sarajevo. The owner of Dnevni Avaz, Mr. Fah- According to the principle of rotation RUDINÒ2ADONāIĀ ÒSAIDÒTHATÒµNANCIALÒPROB- of entity ministers at the EU Council of lems existed due to the decline in circu- the Ministers meetings, Mr. Komadina lation, as several thousands of internet was appointed to represent Bosnia and portals and blogs are being read on cell- Herzegovina at the recent meeting. He phones. He said that he would continue misused the opportunity to promote working with Dnevni Avaz as an Internet the nomination of Mostar for European portal, but that he would lay off many Capital of Culture in 2026, even though journalists and workers as a result. there was a consensus reached in BIH to nominate Sarajevo, which was supported by the RS Government as well. 4HEÒ&ACEBOOKÒCRISIS

4HEÒ0RESSÒ/FµCEÒOFÒTHEÒ-AYORÒOFÒ3A- The Facebook Party representatives rajevo protested that the previous agree- in the Parliament blackmail the leading ment and the principle of speaking with party claiming that they are entitled to one voice in Brussels had been violated. get half of the ministerial positions. Sev- eral MPs, predominantly young people with no political experience, said that they have been receiving demands for changes in the country on a daily basis

72 from their voters via the Internet. Other the new mayor of the RS capital, took more traditional parties claim that, even advantage of the large number of candi- though this political crisis has no impact dates competing, and won with approx- on the economy, failed ambition was imately 20% support, gaining most of the only reason for such behaviour. The his votes among the young and liberals. post-ideological age has brought about various phenomena, such as the Face- Swedes, mostly from the town of book Party, the Consumers Party, the Al- Lulea, are proud to become part of the liance of Concerned Men, etc. community in this way. After the Arctic ice started melting faster than expected, raising the average global sea level, Srpska opens its heart many people from the Scandinavian countries moved to southern, Mediter- The Government of the Republic of ranean countries, with a milder climate Srpska has completed a call for applica- and lower population density. Swedes, tions for more than 200 fellows from the having brought their technology to Ban- other two entities to visit Srpska next ja Luka, have improved economy there, year, including its institutions, NGOs and and reduced unemployment rate to various other destinations, and to stay 10%, which led many Serbs, mainly or- there with host families. ganised through various Internet social networks, to vote for Johan Soderbergh,. 4HEÒ PRESSÒ OFµCEÒ OFÒ THEÒ 23Ò 'OVERN- ment emphasizes that the project sup- ports the exchange of students and Republika Srpska joined BFA study visits in order to promote cooperation and mutual understanding among After the coal reserves in Ugljevik and youngsters in BIH. It is our interest to Gacko had been exhausted and pow- improve and create a better image of er plants shut down, Republika Srpska our entity, which may have a positive joined the Balkan Fusion Association, in- impact on our economy as well. vesting money in a joint power plant that would produce 60% of energy for the region. Swedish mayor of Banja Luka Even though RS produces 50% of The Swedish community in Boèac, its energy from the renewable energy NEARÒ"ANJAÒ,UKA ÒHASÒELECTEDÒTHEIRÒµRSTÒ resources (mostly hydro-power plants), mayor of Banja Luka. Johan Soderbergh, the lack of coal reserves has caused a

73 SIGNIµCANTÒ DROPÒ INÒ ENERGYÒ PRODUCTIONÒ Income tax rate increases to 15% and an increase in production costs. The Association of Foreign Invest- Given that the BFA membership im- ment Employers, which has over 15% of plies the participation of member states` employers in its ranks, protested against companies in the construction of facilities, the RS Governments 15% increase in their ownership of stocks, and the sharing income tax. THEÒ PROµTS Ò THEÒ 23Ò 'OVERNMENTÒ JUSTIµESÒ this investment with future budget rev- Amendments to the Law on Income enues and the creation of new jobs. Tax have been proposed to the RS Na- tional Assembly and will be considered at the next session.

23ÒOFµCIALSÒCLAIMÒTHATÒAÒÒINCOMEÒ tax rate is the lowest in South-East Eu- rope and that it has been increased because of the pension fund debts, which are a result of the increase in the aging of the population in RS.

74 Andrija Vrdoljak Organic food fair in Livno

Todays consumer demands The Government intends to continue for healthy food encourage producers to to invest heavily in the modernisation produce natural organic products. Today, and improvement of existing capacities Bosnia and Herzegovina is not lagging because there are huge opportunities in behind the most developed countries of the world markets. It is important to em- %UROPEÒINÒTHEÒµELDÒOFÒAGRICULTUREÒ phasize that Bosnia and Herzegovina has AÒTRADEÒSURPLUSÒINÒTHISÒµELDÒWITHÒALLÒTHEÒ BiH is one of the regional leaders countries of the region, and that this sec- in this production. The best example TORÒEMPLOYSÒAÒSIGNIµCANTÒNUMBERÒOFÒCITI- is the Organic Food Fair, held in Livno zens of B&H .The Fair was attended by from June 15 to June 21, 2025. The fair representatives of all major supermarket brought together some 900 producers chains operating in the region as well as of organic food from all over BiH, as well representatives of food industries from as a large number of producers from the almost all the EU countries. It is expected region of South-East Europe. that the Fair will help many producers to make new deals with potential buyers The fair was opened by the Prime and resellers, and to bring new greater Minister of Bosnia and Herzegovina, stat- PROµTSÒ TOÒ THEÒ PRODUCERSÒ THEMSELVESÒ ASÒ ing the following in his opening speech: well as the BiH economy in general.

75 Aid Smajiæ Croatia, BiH and Serbia to Host the European Football Championship 2020

Today, on June 20th, 2014, Given the persistent inter-ethnic and the citizens of Serbia, Bosnia and Herze- political tensions and serious economic govina and Croatia have received great slowdown in most of the Balkan Region news from the Union of European Foot- in the recent years, local authorities and ball Associations (UEFA). The three coun- peoples understandably look forward to tries will jointly host the next European the event with huge optimism and great Football Championship, to be held in expectations. For them, the Euro 2020 is June 2020. much more than a sporting tournament. As the successful organisation of the The news came as no surprise. During event requires the (re)construction of 2011 representatives of the three national sport and communication infrastructure, football associations clearly signalled to the construction of hotels and the gen- the UEFA their interest in staging the Euro eral improvement of tourism capacities, 2020. After the European Football Associ- it is expected that the event will bring ation decided to consider joint bids by the ABOUTÒ AÒ SIGNIµCANTÒ BOOSTÒ TOÒ THEÒ THREEÒ three member associations under excep- economies and create new jobs for the tional circumstances, the three countries unemployed. Such expectations are es- MADE ÒINÒ ÒTHEIRÒµNALÒBIDÒFORÒHOSTINGÒ pecially high among the citizens of Bos- this prestigious football tournament. Oth- nia and Herzegovina, whose unemploy- er bidders included Turkey and another ment rate, according to the latest statis- joint bid by the Czech Republic and Slo- tics, is still among the highest in the EU. vakia. However, the strong support of respective national governments and an effective promotion and lobbying campaign But, even more importantly, such launched by the national football associa- joint endeavours of the three states tions have proved to be successful, and could meanwhile strongly highlight the the coalition won after having beaten importance of common economic inter- 4URKEYÒINÒTHEÒµNALÒSELECTIONÒROUNDÒ ests for regional prosperity and political

76 stability, putting these in the focus as capacity to remove this barrier and pro- the basic principle of their mutual rela- VIDEÒTHEÒTWOÒCOUNTRIESÒWITHÒAÒµNALÒPUSHÒ tions, thus overshadowing ethnic differ- towards European integration. Given ences and tensions. After the previous the prevailing positive atmosphere and years accession of Croatia to the EU, the 6-year timeframe, it is highly prob- when Serbia and BiH were also granted able that Serbia and BiH will host the candidate status, it is ethnic differences, Euro 2020 gathering of national foot- the consequent inter-ethnic tensions ball teams as EU member states. Mean- and the burden of the recent past that while, one thing is sure: it has been essentially remain the main obstacles on AGREEDÒBYÒTHEÒHOSTÒSTATEÒTHATÒTHEÒµNALÒ the latters path to the EU. Such cooper- match will be played in the Bosnian cap- ative approaches and projects have the ital, Sarajevo.

77 Some further results of the Working Group on Regional Reconnection

Common sport and cultural values TOGETHERÒ TOÒ DEµNEÒ AÒ COMMONÒ PLATFORMÒ for the presentation of BiH. Globally, the region has always been PERCEIVEDÒ ASÒ ONEÒ &ROMÒ RENOWNEDÒ µLMÒ After having presented themselves festivals, various cultural fairs to indi- successfully at the ITB, respective coun- vidual cultural presentations, the Balkan tries decided to make a joint bid to host cultural tradition has been celebrated to THEÒµRSTÒEVERÒ%UROPEANÒ&OOTBALLÒ#UPÒONÒ a great extent. The Sarajevo Film Festi- Balkan soil. val and Exit in Novi Sad have become regional cultural brands, together with similar cultural events in different areas. A common membership perspective 2EGIONALÒCULTURALÒIDENTIµCATIONÒHASÒBEENÒ µNANCIALLYÒSUPPORTEDÒBYÒBIGÒREGIONALÒCOM- Serbia was granted candidate status panies, EU funds and states alike. In the in 2012 while Bosnia and Herzegovina year 2015, BiH, Serbia, Montenegro and submitted its membership application in Croatia jointly applied to become a Re- the same year (Croatia having accessed gional Partner to the International Tour- the EU in 2013, Montenegro and Mace- ist Bourse (ITB) the greatest world-wide donia already having candidate status, gathering of its kind. Individually, none of while Kosovos EU path remained dis- these countries could achieve such a sta- putable as far as candidacy status was tus. It actually forced embassies of these concerned). countries and their respective ministries to work closely together on their promo- Croatia and Montenegro have helped tion. The Tourism Ministries of both RS Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Federation BiH worked closely to better prepare its responses to the

78 questionnaires relevant for candidate Montenegro and Croatia, the Interna- status. Experts from Slovenia, Croatia, tional Media Corporation has established Macedonia and Montenegro helped BiH regional TV programs and started publish- and Serbia to get ready for the adoption ing regional newspapers and magazines. of all the relevant segments of the acquis. 46Ò!LÒ*AZEERAÒWASÒTHEÒµRSTÒTOÒESTABLISHÒAÒ All the countries have signed bilateral regional News TV channel, followed by agreements on mutual cooperation and some other media groups that purchased technical assistance related to EU affairs. different newspapers, streamlining them towards a more regional rather than national editorial approach. Local and inter- No language barrier national publishers improved their cooperation in the region by establishing the Due to the fact that there is no lan- µRSTÒ"ALKANÒ"OOKÒ0RIZEÒFORÒAUTHORSÒWRITINGÒ guage barrier between Serbia, BiH, in South-Slavic languages.

ANNEX

Scenario Planning Team

Bazdulj Muharem is a publicist and and an M.A. degree in Criminology. She journalist. He was born in Travnik and was born in Zenica and now lives and currently lives in Sarajevo. He writes for works in Sarajevo. the Osloboðenje daily. *URIÛIā Duka graduated in Law and Ceniæ Svetlana graduated from the holds an M.A. degree in Journalism. She Faculty of Economics in Sarajevo and lives in Sarajevo where she works as a then completed her postgraduate stud- journalist. ies at Cambridge University. Currently, she is a PhD student in Switzerland. She Kapetanoviæ Amer holds a degree has worked in foreign trade and as a in Political Science. He is a career diplo- consultant for several foreign compa- mat. He is in charge of the Department nies. She was an advisor to the President for the European Union in the Minis- of Republika Srpska, Mr. Dragan Èaviæ. try of Foreign Affairs of BiH. He is the She was the Minister of Finance of Re- President of the Governing Board of the publika Srpska (from 2007 to 2008). She Foundation of Cinematography of BiH. teaches courses at private faculties in Banja Luka. Martinoviæ Aleksandra has a degree in Economics obtained from Bel- Èaueviæ-Suæeska Lejla has a de- grade University. She lives and works in gree in Journalism and works as the Banja Luka. She is a member of Transpar- (EADÒ OFÒ /FµCEÒ FORÒ )NTERNATIONALÒ #OOP- ency International BiH. She is involved in eration and Information of the Indepen- THEÒµGHTÒAGAINSTÒCORRUPTIONÒINÒTHEÒECO- dent Federation of Trade Unions of BiH. nomic and political spheres. She was born in Zenica and now lives in Sarajevo. Mazalica Srðan is a delegate of the National Assembly of Republika Srpska. $ÞUMHURÑ *ASMINKAÑ is a Human He holds a degree in Electrical Engineer- Rights expert. She holds a degree in Law ing. He lives in Banja Luka and works at

85 the Elektroprenos BiH Company, Opera- Staniæ Bojan is a political activist. He tional Area Banja Luka. was born in Zenica and currently lives in Mostar. He is a professor of Croatian and Nikoliæ Predrag is the President of English languages. He is the director of the Centre for Strategic Cooperation in the HKK Zrinjski in Mostar. Banja Luka. He is a medical doctor spe- cialised in Clinical Pharmacology. He was Teanoviæ Nataa is a professor of born in Tuzla and now lives in Bijeljina. He German Language and Literature. Since is a member of the Serb Democratic Party. 1997 she has been the manager of Al- ternativna Televizija in Banja Luka. Osmanèeviæ Enes holds a PhD in Journalistic Science. He teaches at the Trifunoviæ Aleksandar is the editor Faculty of Philosophy in Tuzla and the of the Buka Media Project in Banja Luka. Faculty of Political Science in Sarajevo. He publishes articles in local and foreign He has published four books and occa- media. sionally writes commentaries and articles for various newspapers. Vrdoljak Andrija is an NGO activist working with the Youth Centre. He lives Ramiæ-Mesihoviæ Lejla has an M.A. and works in Livno. degree from the Department of Diplo- macy of the Faculty of Political Science in Zaimoviæ Uzunoviæ Nermina is a Sarajevo. She lives and works in Sarajevo. professor of Mechanics and Metrology at the Universities of Zenica and Saraje- Rondiæ Adnan is a journalist of In- ternational TV News Channel Al-Jazeera. vo. She is a delegate of the Social Demo- He holds an M.A. degree in Journalism cratic Party of BiH in the Parliamentary obtained from the Faculty of Political Assembly of BiH. Science in Sarajevo. He lives and works in Sarajevo. Zurovac Ljiljana was born in Zren- janin and now lives and works in Sara- Smajiæ Aid holds a PhD in Psychol- jevo. She has a degree in Theatre and ogy and teaches at the Faculty of Islamic Dramaturgy from the Faculty of Philoso- Studies. He is particularly interested in phy in Sarajevo. She is the author of the- exploring the status of religion in the atre plays, TV series and TV plays. She lives of individuals and societies. He is has also worked as a radio journalist. active in the NGO sector and works at She was a director of the High College the Centre for Advanced Studies. of Journalism in Sarajevo. She currently

86 holds the position of Executive Director Scenario Coordination Team of the Press Council of BiH. Veit Winfried, Scenario Facilitator, ÙIVANOVIāÑ !LEKSANDARÑ is an inde- Associate Professor at the University of pendent consultant in organisational Freiburg development, communications, negotia- tion and alternative dispute settlements. Pasch Paul, Scenario Co-Facilitator, He is one of the founders and former ex- Country Director, Friedrich-Ebert-Stif- ecutive director of the Mediators Asso- tung BiH, ciation in Bosnia and Herzegovina, which has led development activities and the Topiæ Tanja, Research Associate, application of mediation in the country. Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Banja Luka He was in charge of a program run by OFµCE the Helsinki Citizens Parliament in Banja Luka and a journalist for and editor of Aliæ Merima, Research Associate several local and foreign media. He has a &RIEDRICH %BERT 3TIFTUNG Ò3ARAJEVOÒOFµCEÒ degree in Journalism obtained from the Faculty of Philosophy of the University of Karamehiæ Mia, Project Assistant Banja Luka and is currently studying at a Masters programme of Contemporary Sociology.

87 Bibliography

Global Business Network, Why scenari- Schwartz, Peter, 4HEÒ !RTÒ OFÒ THEÒ ,ONGÒ os? An Overview of scenario think- View. Planning for the Future in an ing concepts, www. gbn.com. Uncertain World, 1991.

Institute for Social Development, 4HEÒ Shell International, Scenarios: An Explor- Mont Fleur Scenarios, South Africa ERgSÒ'UIDE, 2003. 1992-2002, University of the West- ern Cape, 1992. Steinmüller, Karlheinz / Schulz-Montag, Beate, z-szenarioprozess. !USÒ4RENDSÒ Kahane, Adam, 0OWERÒANDÒ,OVE Ò!Ò4HE- und Zukunftsbildern Strategien für ory and Practice of Social Change, morgen und übermorgen entwick- 2010. eln, 2005.

Lempert, Robert J./Popper, Steven W./ Veit, Winfried (ed.), Israel 2025, Scenari- Bankes, Steven C., Shaping the Next os of future developments, 2001. One Hundred Years. New Methods FORÒ 1UANTITATIVE Ò ,ONG 4ERMÒ 0OLICYÒ Veit, Winfried (ed.), 4HEÒ'ENEVAÒ3CENAR- Analysis, RAND, 2003. ios on Global Economic Governance 2020, 2009. Meadows, Dennis L. et al., 4HEÒ,IMITSÒTOÒ Growth, Universe Books, New York, Wilms, Falko E.P. (ed.), Szenariotechnik. 1972. Vom Umgang mit der Zukunft, 2006.

Millennium Institute and Centre for Ap- plied Studies in International Negoti- ations (CASIN), Balkans Daily, 2007. Available at: birn.eu.com/attach- ment/000000015.pdf

88 The publication Bosnia and Herzegovina 2025: Scenarios on d.) FUTUREÒ$EVELOPMENTSiÒ ÒOFFERSÒµVEÒDIFFERENTÒOUTLOOKSÒONÒWHATÒ E THEÒCOUNTRYÒCOULDÒLOOKÒLIKEÒINÒTHEÒYEARÒÒ

4WENTYÒINDIVIDUALSÒFROMÒALLÒWALKSÒOFÒLIFEÒWEREÒWORKINGÒONÒTHEÒ asch ( P BOSNIA AND PROJECTÒTHROUGHOUTÒÒAPPLYINGÒTHEÒMETHODOLOGICALÒFRAMEWORKÒ aul

of Shell scenario planning. The participants chose different P train names for each scenario to metaphorically symbolise the HERZEGOVINA 2025: COUNTRIESÒPROGRESSÒTOWARDSÒ%UROPEANÒ)NTEGRATION

Bosnia and Herzegovina 2025: Scenarios on D.) FUTUREÒ$Evelopmentsiò Òoffersòµveòdifferentòoutlooksòonòwhatò E THEÒCOUNTRYÒCOULDÒLOOKÒLIKEÒINÒTHEÒYEARÒÒ

Bosnia and Herzegovina 2025: Scenarios on D.) FUTUREÒ$Evelopmentsiò Òoffersòµveòdifferentòoutlooksòonòwhatò E THEÒCOUNTRYÒCOULDÒLOOKÒLIKEÒINÒTHEÒYEARÒÒ