The publication Bosnia and Herzegovina 2025: Scenarios on d.) FUTUREÒ$EVELOPMENTSiÒ ÒOFFERSÒµVEÒDIFFERENTÒOUTLOOKSÒONÒWHATÒ E THEÒCOUNTRYÒCOULDÒLOOKÒLIKEÒINÒTHEÒYEARÒÒ 4WENTYÒINDIVIDUALSÒFROMÒALLÒWALKSÒOFÒLIFEÒWEREÒWORKINGÒONÒTHEÒ asch ( P BOSNIA AND PROJECTÒTHROUGHOUTÒÒAPPLYINGÒTHEÒMETHODOLOGICALÒFRAMEWORKÒ aul of Shell scenario planning. The participants chose different P train names for each scenario to metaphorically symbolise the HERZEGOVINA 2025: COUNTRIESÒPROGRESSÒTOWARDSÒ%UROPEANÒ)NTEGRATION The goal of this publication is not to provide a blueprint for S SCENARIOS ON FUTURE DECISION MAKERSÒBUTÒTOÒADDÒSOMEÒVALUEÒTOÒTHEÒON GOINGÒDEBATESÒ BYÒPROVIDINGÒANÒUNCONVENTIONALÒLOOKÒONÒPOSSIBLEÒANDÒPLAUSIBLEÒ DEVELOPMENTS developments in the country. ON FUTURE DEVELOPMENT S SCENARIO www.fes.ba BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA 2025: Paul Pasch (Ed.) BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA 2025: SCENARIOS ON FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS Paul Pasch, Editor Sarajevo, 2012 Published by: Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung Kupreka 20 71000 Sarajevo Bosnia and Herzegovina Tel.: +387 (0)33 722-010 E-mail: [email protected] www.fes.ba © Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung Responsible: Dr. Paul Pasch Translation: Senada Kreso Proofreading: Gwen Jones Zinaida Lakiæ Illustrations: Mirza IbrahimPasiæ Layout: Filip Andronik Photos: Dr. Paul Pasch CIP - Katalogizacija u publikaciji Nacionalna i univerzitetska biblioteka Bosne i Hercegovine, Sarajevo 316.422:[323:338(497.6)2011/2025(083.92) BOSNIA and Herzegovina 2025: scenarios on future / Paul Pasch, editor ; [translation Senada Kreso ; illustrations Mirza IbrahimsPahiæ]. - Sarajevo : Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, 2012. - 87 str. : ilustr. ; 24 cm Prijevod djela: Bosna i Hercegovina 2025. - "IBLIOGRAµJAÒSTRÒ ISBN 978-9958-884-11-5 1. Pasch, Paul COBISS.BH-ID 19407622 Bosnia and Herzegovina 2025: Scenarios on future developments Paul Pasch, Editor Contents Foreword .......................................................................................................... 7 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................. 13 The Scenario Method ...................................................................................... 15 The Need for a Fresh Look ............................................................................... 17 Executive Summary ......................................................................................... 19 SCENARIOS BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA 2025 ........................................... 23 Dayton Mail - Status quo ................................................................................ 24 Trans BiH Arrow - Functional decentralised state .............................................. 28 BiH Union Express - Functional centralised state ............................................... 34 Western Balkan Inter City - Regional reconnecion ............................................ 40 Tripartite Border Train - Dissolution ................................................................. 46 Background to the Scenarios BiH 2025 .................................................... 53 Political scenario planing: Short Guideline ........................................................ 55 The Pathway towards the Scenarios BiH 2025 .................................................. 62 Participants individual Stories .......................................................................... 65 Some further results of the Working GrouP on Regional Reconnection ............. 78 ANNEX .......................................................................................................... 83 Scenario Planning Team ................................................................................... 85 Bibliography .................................................................................................... 88 5 Foreword The global economic down- of semi-autonomous entities, i.e. the turn has hit Bosnia and Herzegovina Republika Srpska and the Federation of hard. The socio-economic situation is in Bosnia and Herzegovina with its 10 Can- dire straights. Political impasse is preva- TONSÒkÒISÒNOTÒCONDUCIVEÒTOÒTHEÒEFµCIENTÒ lent. The international community is still functioning of state institutions. Back in very much engaged. Much has been and 1995 the Dayton Peace Agreement was still is being Published about the country. a very welcome achievement, but with Still, sometimes we do have mispercep- Bosnia and Herzegovinas ambition to tions regarding Bosnia and Herzegovina. accede to both NATO and the EU, things have changed. The FES project Bosnia and Herze- govina 2025 Scenarios on future Devel- Everyone now seems to be aware OPMENTSiÒ ÒOFFERSÒµVEÒDIFFERENTÒSCENARIOSÒ that Bosnia and Herzegovina is in need on what the country could look like in the of constitutional reform. A better func- year 2025. The scenarios seek to provoke tioning of state level institutions needs the on-going debates by providing an un- to be ensured. In October 2010 general conventional look on the situation. elections took place. For a state that has begun to lag behind the rest of the re- The international community is com- gion, that should have been Perceived as mitted to helP Bosnia and Herzegovina a starting Point to move forward from overcome the shadows of its traumatic the Political deadlock. However, it took Past, assist it on its way to transatlantic the leaders of the six main political par- and EuroPean integration, and to help ties 15 months of brinkmanshiP to come the country regain its status as a modern to a watered down compromise that al- and functional European country. lowed for a PrinciPal agreement on the formation of the Council of Ministers. The current Constitution being one of the annexes of the Dayton Peace Thus there is a Pressing need for the Agreement with its comPlex structure new administration to take some clear 7 decisions with regard to the future of scenario planning exercise could contrib- THEÒ /FµCEÒ OFÒ THEÒ (IGHÒ 2EPRESENTATIVEÒ ute to the Process in a constructive way. (OHR), Brcko District, comPliance with We hoPe that, by Presenting Politicians the Stabilisation and Association Agree- and Policy makers Possible and Plausible ment, NATO membershiP and EU acces- scenarios of what Bosnia and Herzegov- sion candidate status. ina could look like in 2025, we may pro- vide them with food for thought. By be- The international community is ing confronted with Possible scenarios more and more convinced that the driv- that might be in line with their visions of ing force behind these changes should the future of their country, or which they come from the PeoPle and their leaders. would like to prevent by all means, pol- The reform process should be undertak- icy makers and politicians might imple- en with a continuous step-by-step ap- ment their Political strategies with more proach. The harmonisation of the Con- determination. stitution with the European Convention on Human Rights, the adaPtion of state It is obvious that local ownershiP is AIDÒLEGISLATION ÒASÒWELLÒASÒµNDINGÒAÒCOM- the only way to guarantee the outcome PROMISEÒONÒTHEÒCENSUSÒLAW ÒAREÒTHEÒµRSTÒ of the necessary reforms. However, ac- steps that need to be taken. Further- cording to the actual scenarios, the in- more, the rule of law and the PrinciPle of ternational community still has some ob- legal certainty should be resPected. But LIGATIONSÒTOÒFULµLÒTOÒASSISTÒINÒTHEÒEFFORTSÒ above all a Paradigm shift needs to take to overcome the dysfunctional Dayton Place so that reconciliation amongst the structure. That is why Bosnia and Her- people can yield fruit. zegovina needs to be Pushed to make progress towards reforms. Constitutional reform must be well prepared and agreed with local politi- The scenarios do not give a bluePrint cians in order to be able to form a coali- for decision-makers how to act but they tion Government. A solution to the con- give a message, from which the recipi- ¹ICTINGÒCONCEPTSÒOFÒConfederation versus ents can draw their conclusions. The Federal State must be found. Overall the Present Publication intends to add some required reforms should be Perceived as value to a controversial Public debate a win-win situation for everyone. This of that will hopefully contribute to over- course is easier said than done. coming the stalemate. The PeoPle of Bosnia and Herzegovina, like all PeoPle This political deadlock was the star- of the Western Balkans, deserve to have INGÒPOINTÒWHENÒWEÒµRSTÒCONSIDEREDÒIFÒAÒ 8 a Peaceful, ProsPerous and socially just determined to make this project a suc- perspective within the European family. cess. I would esPecially like to thank Winfried Veit, Merima Alic, Mia Karame- This Publication Project was made hic and Tanja ToPic for their dedicated Possible through the joint efforts of a work throughout the year-long exercise. very committed scenario team consist- It is their coordinating role, research, ing of 20 PeoPle from all walks of life of writing and technical editing that made Bosnian and Herzegovinian society, to- this project possible. I am also grateful gether with the FES coordination team. to Mirza Ibrahimpasic and Filip Andronik All team members ParticiPated in the for their invaluable work in illustrating scenario building in a Personal caPacity. and designing this publication. The scenarios are necessarily a compro- MISE Ò RE¹ECTINGÒ CONSENSUSÒ AMONGÒ THEÒ This publication remains the sole re- whole scenario team. I wish to acknowl- sponsibility of the editor. edge my aPPreciation to all the team members who were, over the year,