Housing Land Requirements and Supply Briefing Note
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Bolton’s Authority Monitoring Report 2016/17: Volume 2 Housing Land Requirements and Supply Briefing Note For more information contact: Planning Strategy Department of Place Town Hall Bolton BL1 1RU Tel: 01204 333216 Email [email protected] 1 Contents 1. Introduction .............................................................................................................. 3 2. Five Year Housing Supply 2017-2022 ...................................................................... 5 3. Housing Trajectory ................................................................................................. 10 4. Overall Housing Supply (Allocated or with Planning Permission) ........................... 12 5. Sites under Construction ........................................................................................ 13 6. New Permissions ................................................................................................... 14 7. Housing Completions (Figure 2) ............................................................................. 16 8. Completions by House Type .................................................................................. 17 9. Registered Provider Development ......................................................................... 19 10. Previously Developed Land ................................................................................... 19 11. Housing Distribution ............................................................................................... 20 12. Conclusion ............................................................................................................. 20 Appendix 1: Detailed Schedule of Sites Remaining in the Supply ..................................... 22 2 1. Introduction This briefing note sets out the housing land position in Bolton at 1st April 2017. It also provides information on new planning permissions, dwellings completions and allocated development land in the borough. The National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) was published in March 2012 and sets out the need for Local Planning Authorities to boost significantly the supply of housing. In doing so the LPA is required to identify and update annually a supply of specific deliverable sites sufficient to provide five years’ worth of housing against their housing requirements with an additional buffer of 5% (moved forward from later in the plan period) to ensure choice and competition in the market for land. Where there has been a record of persistent under delivery of housing, local planning authorities should increase the buffer to 20% (moved forward from later in the plan period) to provide a realistic prospect of achieving the planned supply and to ensure choice and competition in the market for land. To be considered deliverable, sites should be available now, offer a suitable location for development now, and be achievable with a realistic prospect that housing will be delivered on the site within five years and in particular that development of the site is viable. Sites with planning permission should be considered deliverable until permission expires, unless there is clear evidence that schemes will not be implemented within five years, for example they will not be viable, there is no longer a demand for the type of units or sites have long term phasing plans. There is also a requirement to identify a supply of specific, developable sites or broad locations for growth, for years 6-10 and, where possible, for years 11-15. The Allocations Development Plan Document identifies further sites to satisfy this longer term supply. The National Planning Policy Framework does also allow an allowance to be made for windfall sites in the five-year supply where there is compelling evidence that such sites have consistently become available in the area and will continue to provide a reliable source of supply. At this time Bolton’s five year supply does not rely on the inclusion of a windfall allowance. However in an urban area like Bolton windfalls have historically played a significant part in the delivery of housing and their contribution will continue to be monitored. Bolton’s Allocations Plan progressed through its public examination in April/May 2014 and was adopted on 3rd December 2014. The housing figures within the 2014/15 report reflected adoption of the plan and also the Inspector’s key conclusions in his report dated September 2014. These were that: The Allocations Plan proposes sufficient housing site allocations to meet the overall requirement set out in the Core Strategy and is consistent with its planned distribution of housing across the Borough. There has not been persistent under delivery of housing. In terms of a five year supply of deliverable sites it is appropriate to apply an additional buffer of 5%. 3 The backlog of undersupply since 2008 should be addressed and in line with the national Planning Practice Guidance (PPG) should be dealt with in the first five years. The Borough contains significant areas of urban land where planning policy is generally positive towards the provision of new housing. There is clearly potential for at least some larger windfall sites to come forward, including in the short term. In addition the Council accepted at the hearings that it was reasonable to anticipate an average of 40 demolitions per year. However since production of the last AMR there has been a continued under-delivery of new housing against the Core Strategy targets. This results in a rise in the 5 year housing land requirement and the need to apply a 20% uplift to that increased requirement. In addition, the draft Greater Manchester Spatial Framework, dated October 2016, sets out a new draft housing requirement for the period 2015-2035. This figure is based on considerable work on objectively assessed need, including building on recent national projections, and for Bolton proposes a housing requirement of 16,800 or 840 per annum. This is higher than the Core Strategy requirement of 694 dwellings per annum. The increase in the 5 year housing land requirement, coupled with a relatively static supply of deliverable housing sites, mean that Bolton can no longer demonstrate a 5 year supply of housing land. This is a situation that was confirmed by the appeal decision for housing development at Hill Lane, Blackrod, in April 2016. DCLG has recently issued a consultation document entitled “Planning for the right homes in the right places: consultation proposals”. This is proposing a national standard methodology for calculating housing need, the underlying basis for local plan housing requirements. In summary this uses national DCLG household projections coupled with affordability ratios to derive housing need figures. This year’s report therefore uses the figure supplied by DCLG as another illustrative base measure against which to assess the five-year supply. The next section of the report therefore considers the five year housing supply against requirements of the Core Strategy (which is now dated), the proposed DCLG standardised methodology figure and draft GMSF figures. In addition it uses a 20% buffer in its supply calculations. 4 2. Five Year Housing Supply 2017-2022 In this monitoring year the five year housing supply 2017-22 has been calculated against a range of requirements including the Core Strategy requirement, DCLG draft standard methodology and draft GMSF. Table 1 sets out 5 year dwelling requirements for 2017-2021/22 using these three underlying requirements. The most relevant position is that against the draft GMSF, the other two are for primarily illustrative purposes. In the case of the Core Strategy and Draft GMSF backlog is proposed to be met in line with national policy within the 5 year period (Sedgefield method) rather than over the remaining life of the plan, the calculation also uses the higher 20% buffer and a clearance allowance of 40 dwellings per annum. Taken together these factors inevitably increase the underlying 5 year requirement above that in previous reports as completions remain well below target levels. This results in a range of revised gross 5 year requirements between 5028 - 6568 dwellings. Table 2 shows the projected deliverable supply for 2017-2022 of 3390 dwellings. In line with advice in NPPF this includes the majority of large sites with permission and an allowance for small sites drawn from those with planning permission. Several Bolton town centre apartment led schemes have been excluded since viability concerns at the present time would suggest doubts over delivery in the short term. A contribution from Horwich Locoworks has been included within the five year supply and this site has will deliver a significant quantity of housing over the plan period. This largely explains the capacity differences between Table 2 and Table 4. The supply of 3390 dwellings is set against the residual requirements under the three scenarios and all result in under-supply ranging from 1638 to 3178 dwellings. These equate to between 52 and 67% of the necessary supply of ready to develop housing. This is the equivalent of 2.6 – 3.4 years, well short of the required 5 years. Against GMSF requirements there is only a 2.8 year supply. Table 1 - 5 Year Requirements Core Strategy Annual 694 Proposed DCLG standard 798 Draft GMSF 840 requirement 2008-2026 methodology 2016-2026 2015-2035 Years since 2008 9 Years since 2 2015 Plan requirement 2008- 6246 GMSF 1680 16/17 requirement since 2015 Net completions 2008- 4443 Net 951 16/17 completions