Men's Preview – 20 March, 2021
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Men’s preview – 20 March, 2021 jon Men’s preview – 20 March, 2021 MEN’S INTERNATIONALS – 20 MARCH, 2021 WORLD RUGBY MEN’S RANKINGS STATS • France will secure an immediate return to third place if they beat Wales and England lose to Ireland • Wales will climb above France if they complete the Grand Slam in Paris • Wales can climb as high as third if they win by more than 15 points and England lose, or with a narrower victory if Ireland beat England by more than 15 points • Les Bleus will drop two places to sixth if they lose and Ireland beat England in Dublin • Wales can fall no lower than sixth with a heavy defeat in Paris, although their advantage over Australia would be down to less than a tenth • Ireland will climb above Wales if they win and the Welsh lose to France • Ireland must win by more than 15 points to climb above their visitors England • The Irish could climb as high as third, but only if the above scenario happens and the match between France and Wales ends in a draw in Paris. This would leave both on 85.17 rating points to two decimal places, but Ireland with the slightly better rating when expanded to the 15 decimal places the rankings work to • However, they will drop below Australia again with defeat at home to England • England can fall no lower than fifth – a position they last occupied in August 2019 • Scotland cannot improve their rating with victory given the 9.47 rating points between the sides before home weighting is factored in • Italy will climb two places if they avoid defeat against Scotland – three if Georgia lose to Russia • The Scots will drop below Japan into 10th place if they fail to win at Murrayfield • Georgia cannot improve their position with victory in Russia as their maximum gain is 0.42 • The Lelos will fall one place – below Tonga – if they lose by more than 15 points, two if Italy avoid defeat against Scotland • Georgia could fall in victory if Italy also beat Scotland by more than 15 points. However, if the Lelos match Italy’s margin of victory they will not slip from 12th • Russia can only improve their position if they beat Georgia and Romania lose to Spain • Romania will climb above Spain into 18th place with victory over their visitors • Spain will regain 17th place lost to Uruguay last weekend if they avoid defeat in Romania • Los Leones can equal their highest position of 16th if they win by more than 15 points SCOTLAND (9) 80.12 v ITALY (15) 70.65 Scotland win by 15 points or less – Scotland 80.12, Italy 70.65 (No change) Scotland win by more than 15 points – Scotland 80.12, Italy 70.65 (No change) Draw – Scotland 79.12, Italy 71.65 Italy win by 15 points or less – Scotland 78.12, Italy 72.65 Italy win by more than 15 points – Scotland 77.12, Italy 73.65 IRELAND (6) 83.72 v ENGLAND (3) 86.41 Ireland win by 15 points or less – Ireland 84.69, England 85.44 Ireland win by more than 15 points – Ireland 85.17, England 84.96 Draw – Ireland 83.69, England 86.44 England win by 15 points or less – Ireland 82.69, England 87.44 England win by more than 15 points – Ireland 82.17, England 87.96 1 Men’s preview – 20 March, 2021 FRANCE (4) 85.64 v WALES (5) 83.97 France win by 15 points or less –France 86.17, Wales 83.44 France win by more than 15 points – France 86.44, Wales 83.17 Draw – France 85.17, Wales 84.44 Wales win by 15 points or less – France 84.17, Wales 85.44 Wales win by more than 15 points – France 83.44, Wales 86.17 RUSSIA (20) 63.14 v GEORGIA (12) 73.31 Russia win by 15 points or less – Russia 64.85, Georgia 71.59 Russia win by more than 15 points – Russia 65.71, Georgia 70.73 Draw – Russia 63.85, Georgia 72.59 Georgia win by 15 points or less – Russia 62.85, Georgia 73.59 Georgia win by more than 15 points – Russia 62.71, Georgia 73.73 ROMANIA (19) 65.37 v SPAIN (18) 66.88 Romania win by 15 points or less – Romania 66.22, 66.03 Romania win by more than 15 points – Romania 66.65, Spain 65.61 Draw – Romania 65.22, Spain 67.03 Spain win by 15 points or less – Romania 64.22, Spain 68.03 Spain win by more than 15 points – Romania 63.65, Spain 68.61 The World Rugby Men’s Rankings update every Monday at 12:00 GMT. 2 Men’s preview – 20 March, 2021 SIX NATIONS 2021 SCOTLAND v ITALY – MURRAYFIELD, EDINBURGH – KO 14:15 GMT Head to head Played: 32 – Scotland leads 24-8 Points for: Scotland 794 / Italy 532 (avg. score: Scotland 24-16 Italy) Highest score: Scotland 48 (48-7 on 29 August, 2015) / Italy 20 (37-17 on 24 February, 2007) Biggest winning margin: Scotland 41 (48-7 on 29 August, 2015) / Italy 20 (37-17 on 24 February, 2007) First met: 14 December, 1996 – Scotland 29-22 Italy – Murrayfield, Edinburgh Last met: 14 November, 2020 – Scotland 28-17 Italy – Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence Referee: Pascal Gaüzère (France) Test debut: 13 March, 2010 – Russia 48-11 Germany Tests as referee : 51 (including one as replacement referee) Six Nations debut: 15 March, 2014 – Italy 11-52 England Six Nations tests as referee: 10 • Pascal Gaüzère has refereed this fixture twice previously, taking charge of Scotland’s 29-0 win at Murrayfield in March 2017 and their 29-27 victory in Rome in March 2018 • This will be his fifth match as a test referee at Murrayfield, having also overseen Scotland defeats against England and Wales • Italy will finish bottom of the Championship for the sixth year in a row and the seventh time in eight years with Scotland bottom in 2015 • Italy’s first-ever Six Nations match on 5 February, 2020 saw them beat Scotland 34-20 at the Stadio Flaminio • Diego Dominguez kicked 29 points in the win – including three drop goals – with Giampiero de Carli scoring a first-half try • Italy have lost their last 31 Six Nations matches, dating back to a 22-19 defeat of Scotland at Murrayfield on 28 February, 2015 • In this run, Italy have scored 49 tries and 409 points but conceded 165 tries and 1,250 points • Stuart Hogg is the only player in Scotland’s squad this weekend to have started that 2015 loss to Italy, although Hamish Watson came off the bench. None of Italy’s 23 were involved • In total, Italy have won just 12 and drawn one of their 109 Six Nations matches, losing 96 • Seven of Italy’s 12 Six Nations victories have come against Scotland • Italy have now lost all 12 matches under coach Franco Smith • They have lost 13 games in a row since beating Canada 48-7 at RWC 2019, 541 days ago • Scotland have won their last nine meetings with Italy dating back to the 2015 Six Nations • The closest Italy have come to victory in this run was a 29-27 loss in 2018 • Scotland have only won one of their last six home matches in the Six Nations dating back to their 33-20 win over Italy in February 2019 • Italy have only won twice on Scottish soil, 37-17 in February 2007 and 22-19 in February 2015 – these are Italy’s only wins in 54 away matches in the Six Nations • Italy need four tries to bring up 50 in test matches against Scotland (81) • If Italy fail to add to their five tries, it will be their lowest return for a Championship since 2014 • Italy could also concede a record number of points for a single Six Nations Championship as they have conceded 187 (an average of 47 per game) so far in 2021. The record is currently 228 points conceded by the Azzurri in their debut Championship in 2000 • Italy have conceded more than 200 points in a single Championship on five occasions – in 2000, 2001, 2016, 2017 and 2018 3 Men’s preview – 20 March, 2021 • Italy winger Monty Ioane has made the second-most metres in the competition. His 361 metres gained is only bettered by Ireland’s James Lowe (433) • Three Scotland players have played every minute of their campaign – Duhan van der Merwe, Hamish Watson and captain Stuart Hogg. No Italian has played every minute • Scotland lost six lineouts on their own throw in defeat to Ireland • Scotland have made seven personnel and two positional changes for the visit of Italy, the most eye-catching being captain Stuart Hogg’s first selection at fly-half in his 84th test • Sean Maitland starts at full-back for the first time since the 38-38 draw with England in March 2019 with Darcy Graham filling his vacated spot on the right wing • Centre Huw Jones, scrum-half Scott Steele, hooker David Cherry, prop Zander Fagerson and second-rows Sam Skinner and Grant Gilchrist are the other changes • Steele and Cherry will make their first starts for Scotland • Alex Craig could become Scotland’s 61st World Rugby U20 Championship graduate if he comes off the bench for his debut – only France (74) and Argentina (73) have capped more • Italy have made four changes from the Wales defeat, two in the pack and two in the backline.