DOCSLIB.ORG

Detailed Climate Change Assessment

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Detailed Climate Change Assessment Climate Change and Disaster Resilient Water Resources Sector Project (RRP KGZ 51081-002) DETAILED CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT Table of contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 I. COUNTRY BACKGROUND AND ITS CLIMATE 3 A. BACKGROUND 3 B. THE CLIMATE OF KYRGYZSTAN 4 C. CURRENT CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE 6 II. BRIEF INTRODUCTION OF GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS USED IN THIS CVRA STUDY 16 A. MODEL GENERATED CLIMATE DATA 16 B. DATA ANALYSIS TOOLS 20 C. DATA AND CHOICE OF METRICS 21 D. VALIDATION OF GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS TO BASELINE OBSERVED (CRU, UK) CLIMATOLOGY 22 E. KYRGYZSTAN CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUES, POLICIES AND INVESTMENTS 28 III. CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS AND EXTREMES 29 A. KYRGYZSTAN’S MEAN CLIMATE & SEASONAL VARIABILITY –KEY ISSUES 29 B. SIMULATION OF FUTURE CLIMATE OF KYRGYZSTAN & SELECTED OBLASTS 31 C. UNCERTAINTIES IN FUTURE PROJECTIONS 69 D. SUMMARY - KEY FINDINGS ON CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS 69 IV. IMPLICATIONS OF PROJECTED CHANGES IN CLIMATE ON THE RISKS AT PROPOSED SUB-PROJECT LEVEL AND ASSOCIATED VULNERABILITIES 72 A. THE SHORT-LISTED SUB-PROJECT: INTRODUCTION 72 B. CLIMATE RISK SCREENING AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE SHORT-LISTED SUB-PROJECT 73 V. CLIMATE CHANGE & DISASTER RISK FRAMEWORK FOR CLIMATE RESILIENCE 89 A. MAINSTREAMING FRAMEWORK FOR CCA AND DRR 89 B. POTENTIAL ADAPTATION RESPONSES / STRATEGIES 90 C. REHABILITATION OF EXISTING HYDROMET MONITORING NETWORK AND REQUIREMENTS OF ADDITIONAL WEATHER STATIONS IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC 97 Tables TABLE 1: AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION - BISHKEK 5 TABLE 2: AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION - NARYN 5 TABLE 3: THE CMIP5 EARTH SYSTEM MODELS WITH A FAIRLY HIGH DEGREE OF SIMULATION SKILL OVER CENTRAL ASIA 19 TABLE 4: LIST OF CORE CLIMATE INDICATORS 22 TABLE 5: BASELINE CLIMATOLOGY OF AVERAGE MONTHLY MEAN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (DEGREE C) OVER KYRGYZSTAN AS OBSERVED (CRU CLIMATOLOGY) AND SIMULATED BY THE MODELS (RMSE IS THE ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERROR BETWEEN THE OBSERVED AND SIMULATED SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES) 26 TABLE 6: BASELINE CLIMATOLOGY OF AVERAGE MONTHLY MEAN MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (DEGREE C) OVER KYRGYZSTAN AS OBSERVED (CRU CLIMATOLOGY) AND SIMULATED BY THE MODELS (RMSE IS THE ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERROR BETWEEN THE OBSERVED AND SIMULATED MINIMUM SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES 27 TABLE 7: BASELINE CLIMATOLOGY OF AVERAGE MONTHLY PRECIPITATION (MM) OVER KYRGYZSTAN AS OBSERVED (CRU CLIMATOLOGY) AND SIMULATED BY THE MODELS (RMSE IS THE ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERROR BETWEEN THE OBSERVED AND SIMULATED PRECIPITATION) 27 TABLE 8: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEANS OF PROJECTED WARMING AREA-AVERAGED OVER KYRGYZSTAN AT THREE TIME SLICES UNDER RCP 8.5 AND RCP4.5 PATHWAYS 34 TABLE 9: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEANS OF PROJECTED WARMING AS INFERRED FROM FOUR MODEL ENSEMBLES AREA AVERAGED OVER THE SEVEN OBLASTS OF KYRGYZSTAN DURING 2020S FOR RCP 8.5 PATHWAY 38 TABLE 10: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEANS OF PROJECTED WARMING AS INFERRED FROM FOUR MODEL ENSEMBLES AREA AVERAGED OVER THE SEVEN OBLASTS OF KYRGYZSTAN DURING 2050S FOR RCP 8.5 PATHWAY 38 TABLE 11: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEANS OF PROJECTED WARMING AS INFERRED FROM FOUR MODEL ENSEMBLES AREA AVERAGED OVER THE SEVEN OBLASTS OF KYRGYZSTAN DURING 2080S FOR RCP 8.5 PATHWAY 39 TABLE 12: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEANS OF PROJECTED WARMING AS INFERRED FROM FOUR MODEL ENSEMBLES AREA AVERAGED OVER THE SEVEN OBLASTS OF KYRGYZSTAN DURING 2020S FOR RCP 4.5 PATHWAY 40 TABLE 13: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEANS OF PROJECTED WARMING AS INFERRED FROM FOUR MODEL ENSEMBLES AREA AVERAGED OVER SELECTED SEVEN OBLASTS OF KYRGYZSTAN DURING 2050S FOR RCP 4.5 PATHWAY 41 TABLE 14: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEANS OF PROJECTED WARMING AS INFERRED FROM FOUR MODEL ENSEMBLES AREA AVERAGED OVER SELECTED SEVEN OBLASTS OF KYRGYZSTAN DURING 2080S FOR RCP 4.5 PATHWAY 41 TABLE 15: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEANS OF PROJECTED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE AS INFERRED FROM FOUR MODEL ENSEMBLES AREA AVERAGED OVER KYRGYZSTAN DURING THE THREE TIME SLICES FOR RCP 8.5 AND 4.5 PATHWAYS 42 TABLE 16: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEANS OF PROJECTED CHANGE IN AREA AVERAGED PRECIPITATION (ΔP, PERCENT CHANGE) OVER KYRGYZSTAN AT THREE TIME SLICES FOR RCP 8.5 AND RCP 4.5 PATHWAYS 43 TABLE 17: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEAN PROJECTED CHANGE IN AREA AVERAGED PRECIPITATION (ΔP, PERCENT CHANGE) OVER SELECTED OBLASTS DURING 2020S UNDER RCP 8.5 PATHWAY 47 TABLE 18: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEAN PROJECTED CHANGE IN AREA AVERAGED PRECIPITATION (ΔP, PERCENT CHANGE) OVER SELECTED OBLASTS DURING 2050S UNDER RCP 8.5 PATHWAY 48 TABLE 19: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEAN PROJECTED CHANGE IN AREA AVERAGED PRECIPITATION (ΔP, PERCENT CHANGE) OVER SELECTED OBLASTS DURING 2080S UNDER RCP 8.5 PATHWAY 48 TABLE 20: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEAN PROJECTED CHANGE IN AREA AVERAGED PRECIPITATION (ΔP, PERCENT CHANGE) OVER SELECTED OBLASTS DURING 2020S UNDER RCP 4.5 PATHWAY 49 TABLE 21: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEAN PROJECTED CHANGE IN AREA AVERAGED PRECIPITATION (ΔP, PERCENT CHANGE) OVER SELECTED OBLASTS DURING 2050S UNDER RCP 4.5 PATHWAY 49 TABLE 22: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEAN PROJECTED CHANGE IN AREA AVERAGED PRECIPITATION (Δ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
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Seethings and Seatings
    SEETHINGS AND SEATINGS Strategies for Women’s Political Participation in Asia Pacific Researchers: Bernadette Libres (the Philippines), Bermet Stakeeva (Kyrgyzstan), D. Geetha (India), Naeemah Khan (Fiji), Hong Chun Hee (Korea) and Saliha Hassan (Malaysia) Editors: Rashila Ramli, Elisa Tita Lubi and Nurgul Djanaeva A Project of the Task Force on Women’s Participation in Political Processes APWLD COPYRIGHT Copyright © 2005 Asia Pacific Forum on Women, Law and Development (APWLD) Reproduction of this publication for educational or other non-commercial purposes is authorised and encouraged, provided the source is fully acknowledged. ISBN: 974-93775-1-6 Editorial board: Rashila Ramli, Elisa Tita Lubi and Nurgul Djanaeva Concept for design and layout: Nalini Singh and Tomoko Kashiwazaki Copy editors: Haresh Advani and Nalini Singh Cover design and layout: Byheart design Cover batik image: Titi Soentoro Photographs of research subjects: Researchers and research subjects Published by Asia Pacific Forum on Women, Law and Development (APWLD) 189/3 Changklan Road, Amphoe Muang, Chiang Mai 50101, Thailand Tel nos :(66) 53 284527, 284856 Fax: (66) 53 280847 Email: [email protected]; website: www.apwld.org CONTENT Acknowledgements...................................................................................................... v Message from Regional Coordinator .....................................................................vii Foreword .....................................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • REPORT on Handicraft Activities in Central Asia: Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan in 2013 Prepared by D.Chochunbaeva, Vice-President of WCC-APR for Central Asia
    REPORT on Handicraft activities in Central Asia: Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan in 2013 Prepared by D.Chochunbaeva, Vice-president of WCC-APR for Central Asia Kyrgyzstan: 1. During 2013 there were organized 7 short craft fairs. This craft fairs are organized in Bishkek, capital of Kyrgyzstan, every month. Usually 23-25 Kyrgyz, Uzbek and Tajik craftsmen take part at fairs. Schedule of the craft fairs: Feb 9-10, March 16-17, April 5-6, May 22-25, October 19-20, November 22-23, December 7-8. 2. Since October 2012 to March 2014 CACSARC-kg takes part in implementing of the Project "Advancing women’s economic opportunities in Fergana valley handicraft and textile supply chain" in partnership with the RCE KG (Resource Center of the Development for Sustainable Development in Kyrgyzstan). There were several International Experts on Handicraft Development being involved in the Project activities: WCC-APR Board Members Ms. Manjari Nirula (India) and Mr. Edric Ong (Malaysia) have been providing support in creation of the craft production-marketing chain in Fergana Valley and introducing Central Asian handicrafts to the different markets; Ms. Geraldine Hurez (France) – have been completing and adapting handicraft items “Fergana Valley Collection” for the European market, particularly for the Maison et Objet; Ms. Karen Gibbs (USA, “ByHand” Consulting) – have been developing selecting craft production to be introduced for American market (at New York Gift Fair, Feb 2014). 1) Within Project activities there were 23 trainings on different craft technologies and marketing were provided for more than 225 craftsmen all over Fergana Valley in Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.
    [Show full text]
  • Genetic Diversity of Echinococcus Multilocularis and Echinococcus Granulosus Sensu Lato in Kyrgyzstan: the A2 Haplotype of E
    PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES RESEARCH ARTICLE Genetic diversity of Echinococcus multilocularis and Echinococcus granulosus sensu lato in Kyrgyzstan: The A2 haplotype of E. multilocularis is the predominant variant infecting humans 1☯ 1☯ 2 Cristian A. Alvarez RojasID *, Philipp A. Kronenberg , Sezdbek Aitbaev , Rakhatbek a1111111111 A. Omorov2, Kubanychbek K. Abdykerimov3, Giulia Paternoster3, Beat MuÈ llhaupt4, a1111111111 Paul Torgerson3, Peter Deplazes1 a1111111111 a1111111111 1 Institute of Parasitology, Vetsuisse and Medical Faculty, University of ZuÈrich, ZuÈrich, Switzerland, 2 City Clinical Hospital #1, Surgical Department, Faculty of Surgery of the Kyrgyz State Medical Academy, Bishkek, a1111111111 Kyrgyzstan, 3 Section of Epidemiology, Vetsuisse Faculty, University of ZuÈrich, ZuÈrich, Switzerland, 4 Clinics of Hepatology and Gastroenterology, University Hospital of ZuÈrich, ZuÈrich, Switzerland ☯ These authors contributed equally to this work. * [email protected] OPEN ACCESS Citation: Alvarez Rojas CA, Kronenberg PA, Aitbaev S, Omorov RA, Abdykerimov KK, Paternoster G, et Abstract al. (2020) Genetic diversity of Echinococcus multilocularis and Echinococcus granulosus sensu Alveolar and cystic echinococcosis (AE, CE) caused by E. multilocularis and E. granulosus lato in Kyrgyzstan: The A2 haplotype of E. s.l., respectively, are considered emerging zoonotic diseases in Kyrgyzstan with some of multilocularis is the predominant variant infecting the world highest regional incidences. Little is known regarding the molecular variability of humans. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 14(5): e0008242. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008242 both species in Kyrgyzstan. In this study we provide molecular data from a total of 72 para- site isolates derived from humans (52 AE and 20 CE patients) and 43 samples from dogs Editor: Adriano Casulli, Istituto Superiore Di Sanita, ITALY (23 infected with E.
    [Show full text]
  • BA Country Report of Kyrgyzstan Part 1 Macro Level
    Informal Governance and Corruption – Transcending the Principal Agent and Collective Action Paradigms Kyrgyzstan Country Report Part 1 Macro Level Aksana Ismailbekova | July 2018 Basel Institute on Governance Steinenring 60 | 4051 Basel, Switzerland | +41 61 205 55 11 [email protected] | www.baselgovernance.org BASEL INSTITUTE ON GOVERNANCE This research has been funded by the UK government's Department for International Development (DFID) and the British Academy through the British Academy/DFID Anti-Corruption Evidence Programme. However, the views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of the British Academy or DFID. Dr Aksana Ismailbekova, Max Planck Institute for Social Anthropology, Advokatenweg 36 06114 Halle (Saale), Germany, [email protected] 1 BASEL INSTITUTE ON GOVERNANCE Table of contents Abstract 3 1 Introduction 4 1.1 Informal Governance and Corruption: Rationale and project background 4 1.2 Informal governance in Kyrgyzstan 4 1.3 Conceptual approach 6 1.4 Research design and methods 6 2 Informal governance and the lineage associations: 1991–2005 7 2.1 Askar Akaev and the transition to Post-Soviet governance regime 7 2.2 Co-optation: Political family networks 8 2.3 Control: social sanctions, demonstrative punishment and selective law enforcement 11 2.4 Camouflage: the illusion of inclusive democracy and charitable contributions 13 2.5 The Tulip Revolution and the collapse of the Akaev networks 13 3 Epoch of Bakiev from 2005–2010 14 3.1 Network re-accommodation in the aftermath of the Tulip Revolution
    [Show full text]
  • Water Governance in the Kyrgyz Agricultural Sector: on Its Way to Integrated Water Resource Management?
    Water Governance in the Kyrgyz Agricultural Sector German Development Institute (DIE) The German Development Institute is a multidisciplinary research, consultancy, and training institute for Germany’s bilateral development cooperation as well as for multilateral development cooperation. On the basis of independent research, it acts as consultant to public institutions in Germany and abroad on current issues of cooperation between developed and developing countries. In a 9-month training course, the German Development Institute prepares German and European university graduates for careers in the field of development policy. Elke Herrfahrdt, economist, German Development Institute (DIE) E-Mail: [email protected] Martin Kipping, political scientist, Federal Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) E-Mail: [email protected] Tanja Pickardt, geographer, German Technical Cooperation (GTZ) E-Mail: [email protected] Mathias Polak, political scientist, freelance consultant E-Mail: [email protected] Caroline Rohrer, social anthropologist, Epos Health Consultants E-Mail: [email protected] Carl Felix Wolff, geographer, German Federal Agency for Nature Conservation (BfN) E-Mail: [email protected] Studies Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik 14 Water governance in the Kyrgyz agricultural sector: on its way to Integrated Water Resource Management? Elke Herrfahrdt Martin Kipping Tanja Pickardt Mathias Polak Caroline Rohrer Carl Felix Wolff Bonn 2006 Studies / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik ISSN 1860-0468
    [Show full text]
  • Water and Conflict in the Ferghana Valley: Historical Foundations of the Interstate Water Disputes Between Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan
    Dipartimento di Scienze Politiche Cattedra: Modern Political Atlas Water and Conflict in the Ferghana Valley: Historical Foundations of the Interstate Water Disputes Between Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan RELATORE Prof. Riccardo Mario Cucciolla CANDIDATO Alessandro De Stasio Matr. 630942 ANNO ACCADEMICO 2017/2018 1 Sommario Introduction ....................................................................................................................................................... 4 1. The Water-Security Nexus and the Ferghana Valley ................................................................................. 9 1.1. Water and Conflict ................................................................................................................................. 9 1.1.1. Water uses ..................................................................................................................................... 9 1.1.2. Water security and water scarcity ............................................................................................... 10 1.1.3. Water as a potential source of conflict ....................................................................................... 16 1.1.4. River disputes .............................................................................................................................. 25 1.2. The Ferghana Valley ............................................................................................................................ 30 1.2.1. Geography, hydrography, demography and
    [Show full text]
  • The Second Assessment of Transboundary Rivers, Lakes and Groundwaters: Central Asia
    The Second Assessment of Transboundary Rivers, Lakes and Groundwaters: Central Asia Annukka Lipponen Environmental Affairs Officer, UNECE Coordinator of the Second Assessment Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes Process • Letters to ministers in August 2010 • Workshop on transboundary water management in Central Asia in Almaty, Kazakhstan 13-15 October 2010 • Draft assessments prepared based on the information provided (datasheets & presentations in Almaty) & sent for comments • Some challenges with making drafts available in Russian for country review • Comments received from IR Iran, Kazakhstan (GW only), Kyrgyzstan (just received, not yet incorporated), Mongolia Particularities • Information on land use/land cover and population hardly available at all – taken from GlobCover and LandScan products for the graphs • Recent quantitative data commonly lacking • Discharge information complemented from GRDC • Assessment of transboundary aquifers by UNESCO and IGRAC in 2009 built on General gaps • No input from the following countries: China, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan • Information on management response and about the future outlook very limited • In most cases information concerning the institutional and legal side of water management very scarce Ramsar Sites included • Gomishan Lagoon • Daurian wetlands • Xingkai Lake National Nature Reserve – Lake Khanka • Tobol-Ishim forest-steppe • Aydar-Arnasay Lakes System • Ili Delta, Balkhash Lake Syr Darya • Main issues/pressures: irrigation
    [Show full text]
  • DRAINAGE BASIN of the ARAL SEA and OTHER TRANSBOUNDARY SURFACE WATERS in CENTRAL ASIA Chapter 3
    68 DRAINAGE BASIN OF THE ARAL SEA AND OTHER TRANSBOUNDARY SURFACE WATERS IN CENTRAL ASIA Chapter 3 ARAL SEA AND OTHER WATERS IN CENTRAL ASIA 69 71 AMU DARYA RIVER BASIN 75 ZERAVSHAN RIVER BASIN 76 SYR DARYA RIVER BASIN 83 ARAL SEA 84 CHU-TALAS RIVER BASINS 89 ILI RIVER BASIN 91 LAKE BALQASH 91 MURGAB RIVER BASIN 91 TEJEN RIVER BASIN Chapter 3 70 ARAL SEA AND OTHER WATERS IN CENTRAL ASIA This chapter deals with major transboundary rivers in Central Asia which have a desert sink, or discharge either into one of the rivers (or their tributaries) or the Aral Sea or an another enclosed lake. It also includes lakes located within the basin of the Aral Sea. Practically all of the renewable water resources in this area are used predominantly for irrigation, and the national economies are developing under conditions of increasing freshwater shortages. TRANSBOUNDARY WATERS IN THE BASIN OF THE ARAL SEA AND OTHER TRANSBOUNDARY SURFACE WATERS IN CENTRAL ASIA1 Basin/sub-basin(s) Total area (km²) Recipient Riparian countries Lakes in the basin Amu Darya …2 Aral Sea AF, KG, TJ, UZ, TM - Surkhan Darya 13,500 Amu Darya TJ, UZ - Kafirnigan 11,590 Amu Darya TJ, UZ - Pyanj 113,500 Amu Darya AF, TJ -- Bartang … Pyanj AF, TJ -- Pamir … Pyanj AF, TJ - Vakhsh 39,100 Amu Darya KG, TJ Aral Sea Zeravshan …2 Desert sink TJ, UZ Syr Darya …2 Aral Sea KZ, KG, TJ, UZ - Naryn … Syr Darya KG, UZ - Kara Darya 28,630 Syr Darya KG, UZ - Chirchik 14,240 Syr Darya KZ, KG, UZ -Chatkal 7,110 Chirchik KG, UZ Chu 62,500 Desert sink KZ, KG Talas 52,700 Desert sink KZ, KG Assa … Desert sink KZ, KG Ili 413,000 Lake Balqash CN, KZ Lake Balqash Murgab 46,880 Desert sink AF, TM - Abikajsar … Murgab AF, TM Tejen 70,260 Desert sink AF, IR, TM 1 The assessment of water bodies in italics was not included in the present publication.
    [Show full text]
  • Assessing Climate Change Impact on Cropland Suitability in Kyrgyzstan: Where Are Potential High-Quality Cropland and the Way to the Future
    agronomy Article Assessing Climate Change Impact on Cropland Suitability in Kyrgyzstan: Where Are Potential High-Quality Cropland and the Way to the Future Sugyeong Park 1 , Chul-Hee Lim 2 , Sea Jin Kim 3 , Erkin Isaev 4, Sol-E Choi 5, Sung-Dae Lee 6 and Woo-Kyun Lee 5,* 1 OJeong Resilience Institute (OJERI), Korea University, 145 Anamro, Seongbukgu, Seoul 02841, Korea; [email protected] 2 College of General Education, Kookmin University, 77 Jeongneungro, Seongbukgu, Seoul 02707, Korea; [email protected] 3 Risk Advisory, Deloitte Anjin LLC, One IFC, 10, Gukjegeumyung-ro, Yeongdeungpo-gu, Seoul 07326, Korea; [email protected] 4 Mountain Societies Research Institute, University of Central Asia, 138 Toktogul Street, Bishkek 720001, Kyrgyzstan; [email protected] 5 Department of Environmental Science and Ecological Engineering, Korea University, 145 Anamro, Seongbukgu, Seoul 02841, Korea; [email protected] 6 Yumkwang High School, 9, Wolgyero 45ga-gil, Nowongu, Seoul 01874, Korea; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected] Abstract: Climate change is one of the greatest challenges in Kyrgyzstan. There have been negative spillover effects in agriculture. This study aims to assess the climate change impacts on cropland Citation: Park, S.; Lim, C.-H.; Kim, suitability in Kyrgyzstan. We used the random forest algorithm to develop a model that captures the S.J.; Isaev, E.; Choi, S.-E.; Lee, S.-D.; effects of multiple climate and environment factors at a spatial resolution of 1 km2. The model was Lee, W.-K. Assessing Climate Change then applied in the scenario analysis for an understanding of how climate change affects cropland Impact on Cropland Suitability in distribution.
    [Show full text]
  • United Nations ___Economic Commission for Europe Use of Clean, Renewable And/Or Alternative Energy Technologies In
    1 UNITED NATIONS _____________ ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR EUROPE SUSTAINABLE ENERGY DIVISION USE OF CLEAN, RENEWABLE AND/OR ALTERNATIVE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES IN RURAL DISTRICTS OF KYRGYZSTAN Shamil Dikambaev Bishkek 2015 2 Contents Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 3 1. Assessment of proposed decisions for autonomous and network access to power services in rural and remote districts of Kyrgyzstan ...................................................................................................................... 5 1.1. General description of power generation and consumption ............................................................ 5 in Kyrgyzstan ................................................................................................................................................. 5 1.2. Issues of power supply to rural and remote districts of Kyrgyzstan .................................................... 10 1.3. Assessment of using renewable power technologies for rural districts of Kyrgyzstan in the current conditions .................................................................................................................................................... 20 2. Assessment of political measures, advanced practices and business models for support of rendering sustainable power services in the rural areas of Kyrgyzstan ...................................................................... 26 3.
    [Show full text]
  • Case Study Highlighting Impacts from Sustainable Land Management Investments in the Central Asian Republics and with a Particular Focus on Kyrgyzstan
    FRAME – Knowledge Sharing for the Natural Resources Community IRG Project No: 3006-000 Case Study Highlighting Impacts from Sustainable Land Management Investments in the Central Asian Republics and with a Particular Focus on Kyrgyzstan (DRAFT) TECHNICAL REPORT August 28, 2006 Prepared for: International Resources Group Prepared by: Daene C. McKinney, PhD, P.E. Contents Section page 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................1 1.1 Objectives and Tasks .........................................................................................................1 1.2 Consultant Terms of Reference .........................................................................................1 1.3 Report Structure .................................................................................................................2 2 Desertification and Land Degradation ..................................................................................2 2.1 Processes of Desertification and Land Degradation ..........................................................2 2.2 Land Degradation in Central Asia ......................................................................................3 2.2.1 Water and Soil Resources of Central Asia ..................................................................3 2.2.2 UNCCD in Central Asia ...............................................................................................4 3. Kyrgyzstan Water Resources and Irrigation
    [Show full text]
  • The Climate- Cryosphere- Water Nexus in Central Asia Key Messages
    Nexus Brief, Nr. 8, October 2019 Climate Change & Environment The Climate- Cryosphere- Water Nexus in Central Asia Key messages Climate change impacts are already noticeable in Transboundary cooperation and integrated Central Asia, which is expected to be one of the most approaches in water management are key strategies in vulnerable regions globally. Temperatures in Central the development of sustainable adaptation solutions in Asia have increased steadily over the past 50 years the region. Integrated Water Resources Management and are projected to rise by 2.5°C–6.5°C towards the through the implementation of basin management end of the 21st century depending on future emission principles is a key instrument for maintaining interstate pathways. Global warming leads to increased melting dialogue and an entry point to the climate-cryosphere- of snow and glaciers and thawing of permafrost and water nexus. As such, cooperation on transboundary as such affect the overall water balance. water management can be a driver for sustainable economic development and thus ultimately for cross- The mountain cryosphere is already changing and will border peace and stability. continue to change considerably towards the end of this century, depending on emission pathways. These Excellent examples of changes will dramatically alter the resource bases of projects and programmes Aralsk the communities and societies depending on water relevant to development Northern Lake Balkhash Aral Sea Ili delta 4 availability from glaciers, snow and permafrost. and cooperation in the (38) 5 region are testimony to KAZAKHSTAN Eastern Ili Economic development and population growth the willingness to step up Aral Sea CHN 4 Western Khorgos intensify impacts and risks in Central Asia.
    [Show full text]