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Detailed Climate Change Assessment

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Climate Change and Disaster Resilient Water Resources Sector Project (RRP KGZ 51081-002) DETAILED CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT Table of contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 I. COUNTRY BACKGROUND AND ITS CLIMATE 3 A. BACKGROUND 3 B. THE CLIMATE OF KYRGYZSTAN 4 C. CURRENT CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE 6 II. BRIEF INTRODUCTION OF GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS USED IN THIS CVRA STUDY 16 A. MODEL GENERATED CLIMATE DATA 16 B. DATA ANALYSIS TOOLS 20 C. DATA AND CHOICE OF METRICS 21 D. VALIDATION OF GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS TO BASELINE OBSERVED (CRU, UK) CLIMATOLOGY 22 E. KYRGYZSTAN CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUES, POLICIES AND INVESTMENTS 28 III. CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS AND EXTREMES 29 A. KYRGYZSTAN’S MEAN CLIMATE & SEASONAL VARIABILITY –KEY ISSUES 29 B. SIMULATION OF FUTURE CLIMATE OF KYRGYZSTAN & SELECTED OBLASTS 31 C. UNCERTAINTIES IN FUTURE PROJECTIONS 69 D. SUMMARY - KEY FINDINGS ON CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS 69 IV. IMPLICATIONS OF PROJECTED CHANGES IN CLIMATE ON THE RISKS AT PROPOSED SUB-PROJECT LEVEL AND ASSOCIATED VULNERABILITIES 72 A. THE SHORT-LISTED SUB-PROJECT: INTRODUCTION 72 B. CLIMATE RISK SCREENING AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE SHORT-LISTED SUB-PROJECT 73 V. CLIMATE CHANGE & DISASTER RISK FRAMEWORK FOR CLIMATE RESILIENCE 89 A. MAINSTREAMING FRAMEWORK FOR CCA AND DRR 89 B. POTENTIAL ADAPTATION RESPONSES / STRATEGIES 90 C. REHABILITATION OF EXISTING HYDROMET MONITORING NETWORK AND REQUIREMENTS OF ADDITIONAL WEATHER STATIONS IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC 97 Tables TABLE 1: AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION - BISHKEK 5 TABLE 2: AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION - NARYN 5 TABLE 3: THE CMIP5 EARTH SYSTEM MODELS WITH A FAIRLY HIGH DEGREE OF SIMULATION SKILL OVER CENTRAL ASIA 19 TABLE 4: LIST OF CORE CLIMATE INDICATORS 22 TABLE 5: BASELINE CLIMATOLOGY OF AVERAGE MONTHLY MEAN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (DEGREE C) OVER KYRGYZSTAN AS OBSERVED (CRU CLIMATOLOGY) AND SIMULATED BY THE MODELS (RMSE IS THE ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERROR BETWEEN THE OBSERVED AND SIMULATED SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES) 26 TABLE 6: BASELINE CLIMATOLOGY OF AVERAGE MONTHLY MEAN MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (DEGREE C) OVER KYRGYZSTAN AS OBSERVED (CRU CLIMATOLOGY) AND SIMULATED BY THE MODELS (RMSE IS THE ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERROR BETWEEN THE OBSERVED AND SIMULATED MINIMUM SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES 27 TABLE 7: BASELINE CLIMATOLOGY OF AVERAGE MONTHLY PRECIPITATION (MM) OVER KYRGYZSTAN AS OBSERVED (CRU CLIMATOLOGY) AND SIMULATED BY THE MODELS (RMSE IS THE ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERROR BETWEEN THE OBSERVED AND SIMULATED PRECIPITATION) 27 TABLE 8: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEANS OF PROJECTED WARMING AREA-AVERAGED OVER KYRGYZSTAN AT THREE TIME SLICES UNDER RCP 8.5 AND RCP4.5 PATHWAYS 34 TABLE 9: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEANS OF PROJECTED WARMING AS INFERRED FROM FOUR MODEL ENSEMBLES AREA AVERAGED OVER THE SEVEN OBLASTS OF KYRGYZSTAN DURING 2020S FOR RCP 8.5 PATHWAY 38 TABLE 10: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEANS OF PROJECTED WARMING AS INFERRED FROM FOUR MODEL ENSEMBLES AREA AVERAGED OVER THE SEVEN OBLASTS OF KYRGYZSTAN DURING 2050S FOR RCP 8.5 PATHWAY 38 TABLE 11: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEANS OF PROJECTED WARMING AS INFERRED FROM FOUR MODEL ENSEMBLES AREA AVERAGED OVER THE SEVEN OBLASTS OF KYRGYZSTAN DURING 2080S FOR RCP 8.5 PATHWAY 39 TABLE 12: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEANS OF PROJECTED WARMING AS INFERRED FROM FOUR MODEL ENSEMBLES AREA AVERAGED OVER THE SEVEN OBLASTS OF KYRGYZSTAN DURING 2020S FOR RCP 4.5 PATHWAY 40 TABLE 13: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEANS OF PROJECTED WARMING AS INFERRED FROM FOUR MODEL ENSEMBLES AREA AVERAGED OVER SELECTED SEVEN OBLASTS OF KYRGYZSTAN DURING 2050S FOR RCP 4.5 PATHWAY 41 TABLE 14: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEANS OF PROJECTED WARMING AS INFERRED FROM FOUR MODEL ENSEMBLES AREA AVERAGED OVER SELECTED SEVEN OBLASTS OF KYRGYZSTAN DURING 2080S FOR RCP 4.5 PATHWAY 41 TABLE 15: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEANS OF PROJECTED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE AS INFERRED FROM FOUR MODEL ENSEMBLES AREA AVERAGED OVER KYRGYZSTAN DURING THE THREE TIME SLICES FOR RCP 8.5 AND 4.5 PATHWAYS 42 TABLE 16: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEANS OF PROJECTED CHANGE IN AREA AVERAGED PRECIPITATION (ΔP, PERCENT CHANGE) OVER KYRGYZSTAN AT THREE TIME SLICES FOR RCP 8.5 AND RCP 4.5 PATHWAYS 43 TABLE 17: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEAN PROJECTED CHANGE IN AREA AVERAGED PRECIPITATION (ΔP, PERCENT CHANGE) OVER SELECTED OBLASTS DURING 2020S UNDER RCP 8.5 PATHWAY 47 TABLE 18: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEAN PROJECTED CHANGE IN AREA AVERAGED PRECIPITATION (ΔP, PERCENT CHANGE) OVER SELECTED OBLASTS DURING 2050S UNDER RCP 8.5 PATHWAY 48 TABLE 19: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEAN PROJECTED CHANGE IN AREA AVERAGED PRECIPITATION (ΔP, PERCENT CHANGE) OVER SELECTED OBLASTS DURING 2080S UNDER RCP 8.5 PATHWAY 48 TABLE 20: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEAN PROJECTED CHANGE IN AREA AVERAGED PRECIPITATION (ΔP, PERCENT CHANGE) OVER SELECTED OBLASTS DURING 2020S UNDER RCP 4.5 PATHWAY 49 TABLE 21: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEAN PROJECTED CHANGE IN AREA AVERAGED PRECIPITATION (ΔP, PERCENT CHANGE) OVER SELECTED OBLASTS DURING 2050S UNDER RCP 4.5 PATHWAY 49 TABLE 22: MONTHLY, SEASONAL AND ANNUAL MEAN PROJECTED CHANGE IN AREA AVERAGED PRECIPITATION (Δ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