Report GVA 10 Stratton Street London W1J 8JR Chelmsford Retail Capacity Study 2014 Chelmsford City Council November 2014 gva.co.uk Prepared By: Elizabeth Milimuka .......... Status . Draft ....................... Date June 2014 ....................... Reviewed By: Matt Morris ...................... Status . Draft ....................... Date October 2014 ................. For and on behalf of GVA Grimley Ltd October 2014 I gva.co.uk Chelmsford City Council Chelmsford Retail Capacity Study 2014 CONTENTS Executive Summary ............................................................................................................. 1 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................. 7 2. Policy Framework ........................................................................................................ 9 3. Retail Market Review and Town Centre Trends ....................................................... 22 4. Competing Centres ................................................................................................... 34 5. Qualitative Assessment – Chelmsford City Centre ................................................. 51 6. Qualitative Assessment - South Woodham Ferrers Town Centre ........................... 83 7. Qualitative Assessment - Principal Neighbourhood Centres ................................. 91 8. Quantitative Needs Assessment ............................................................................... 99 9. Opportunities for Growth and Change .................................................................. 126 10. Conclusions and Recommendations ..................................................................... 129 Plans Plan 1 Household Survey Area Plan 2 Map of On-Street Survey Locations, Chelmsford Plan 3 Map of On-Street Survey Locations, South Woodham Ferrers Town Centre Plan 4 Foodstore Gap Analysis Appendices Appendix I Convenience Capacity Forecasts Appendix II Comparison Capacity Forecasts Appendix III Chelmsford Published Retail Requirements Appendix IV PMRS Pedestrian Flow Counts November 2014 I gva.co.uk Chelmsford City Council Chelmsford Retail Capacity Study 2014 Executive Summary GVA have been instructed by Chelmsford City Council to undertake a Retail Study for the City Council Area which comprehensively reviews the need and capacity for new retail floorspace in Chelmsford and provides the Council with strategic advice on how to plan for retail needs of the City Council Area up to 2036. The terms of reference are to: Review and advise on the retail performance of Chelmsford City Centre, South Woodham Ferrers Town Centre and the defined Principal Neighbourhood Centres; Identify the capacity for new retail provision across the City Council Area up to 2036 in accordance with provision of the NPPF and in light of potential increases in population and forecast changes in retail expenditure; and Assess the potential to accommodate forecast capacity for retail development within the City Council Area, focusing specifically on the potential role of Chelmer Waterside. In addition to on-site and desk based evidence gathering, this report is informed by a new and up-to-date Household Telephone Survey across twelve survey zones and in-centre visitor surveys undertaken in Chelmsford and South Woodham Ferrers Town Centre. The report provides a sound and robust evidence base to inform the Council’s next Local Plan. Policy Framework The National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) was published in March 2012 and clearly advocates a ‘town centres first’ approach and requires planning policies to positively promote competitive town centre environments and manage the growth of centres over the plan period. The online National Planning Practice Guidance was published on 6th March 2014 and provides technical guidance on how to prepare a robust evidence base, which has informed this study. The Core Strategy and Development Control Policies DPD (2008) and Focused Review (2013) seek to reinforce Chelmsford’s sub-regional role by attracting new commercial investment and reinforcing the town’s attractiveness by enhancing civic and cultural activities. The policy framework also seeks to enhance the viability and vitality of the South Woodham Ferrers Town Centre and the four Principal Neighbourhood Centres of The Vineyards, Great Baddow; November 2014 I gva.co.uk 1 Chelmsford City Council Chelmsford Retail Capacity Study 2014 Gloucester Avenue, Moulsham Lodge; Newlands Spring, North Melbourne; and Village Centre, Chelmer Village. Adopted Area Action Plans for Chelmsford Town Centre (CTCAAP) and North Chelmsford (NCAAP) set out the guiding principles for development, identify opportunity sites for development and promote retail expansion of Chelmsford City Centre. The Site Allocations DPD (2012) identifies the potential for further development of retail, commercial, community and residential uses in South Woodham Ferrers Town Centre and the Principal Neighbourhood Centres. The Council is currently in the process of preparing a Local Plan and this study will help to inform this process. Retail Market Review and Town Centre Trends Research suggests that economic growth will continue to improve following the recovery from the economic downturn although improvements are more likely in the comparison goods sector rather than the convenience goods sector. The traditional high street faces a number of challenges, not least from the impacts of the recession, including tightening of retail spending and changing consumer behaviour, but also from increasing competition posed by the internet, multichannel retailing and out of centre developments. In this context, town centre strategies which support the continued evolution of the high street are considered ever more vital. This may involve providing a high quality shopping ‘experience’, maximising the benefits of tourist trade, and improving the mix of retail and non-retail outlets to increase length of stay and spend. It will be important for town centres to be well positioned to be able to adapt to on-going changes in the retail and leisure sector over the development plan period and to reaffirm their unique selling points which differentiate their retail offer from other centres. The on-going pattern of polarisation suggests that larger centres are well placed to maintain and enhance their offer. However, this is dependent on continued investment to ensure the right mix of retailers and other services. Competing Centres Within the sub-regional area, the household survey demonstrates that Chelmsford retains a growing share of comparison goods expenditure within its core survey zones. The top sub-regional competitors remain Bluewater and Lakeside. Market shares attributed to these destinations grew between 2005 and 2013 and this trend is likely to continue following implementation of significant November 2014 I gva.co.uk 2 Chelmsford City Council Chelmsford Retail Capacity Study 2014 extensions planned at both shopping centres. Westfield Stratford City draws limited trade from Chelmsford’s core zones and from the study area as a whole. Cambridge continues to exert an influence over shopping patterns in the survey area, however retains a relatively minimal market share from within Chelmsford’s core zones. Colchester’s influence is falling both within the survey area and within Chelmsford’s market share however planned retail and leisure development in the centre will seek to reverse this trend. Braintree’s market share has fallen from within the survey area as a whole but increased slightly within Chelmsford’s core zones. Basildon, and Harlow have limited influence on shopping patterns within Chelmsford’s core zones, and whilst there are plans to regenerate parts of these town centres they are unlikely to be of a sufficient scale to substantially extend their influence over shopping patterns in the sub-region. Collectively, the level of investment planned in the competing sub-regional centres will strengthen their role in the retail hierarchy, and increase their market share from the Chelmsford catchment area. It is therefore important that Chelmsford continues to evolve to improve its city centre offer in order to retain attractiveness and maintain market share. Qualitative Assessment of Centres Chelmsford remains a strong centre which performs well against the national average in key indicators. It achieves the highest level of retention of all the centres (and out-of-centre destinations) in the City Council Area for comparison goods, which demonstrates the popularity and strength of the city centre as a retail destination. The household survey results indicate that the centre attracts trade from across a wide area which extends beyond the City Council Area’s boundaries, confirming that the city centre serves an import role in the wider regional hierarchy. The addition of John Lewis and wider Bond Street development should help ensure that the city centre maintains market shares and continues to attract trade and investment. Our analysis shows that convenience provision in the centre is below average and is trading below expected levels. The Tesco on Springfield Road, provides an important complementary role to the city centre and helps encourage linked trips to other shops and services. Market shares have decreased since 2005, and although household surveys tend to underestimate the performance of city centre stores, this may indicate a qualitative case to support new provision