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Paradise Entertainment Monday, September 29, 2014 China Merchants Securities (HK) Company Report Hong Kong Equity Research Paradise Entertainment (1180 HK) Angela HAN LEE +852 3189 6634 Initiate with BUY: Right segment, right product [email protected] ■ Initiate BUY with 12-month TP of HK$4.70, based on 0.6x FY15E PEG on 43.9% FY14E-17E EPS CAGR. WHAT’S NEW ■ Casino services focus solely on grind mass market with strong Initiation growth, outperforming Macau peers exposed to high-end market. ■ The sole live multi game (LMG) system and terminal supplier in BUY Macau. Upcoming Cotai properties and replacement demand imply good sales visibility. LMGs cater grind mass with low minimum bet Previous for table games. Price HK$3.28 12-month Target Price Catalysts for re-rating HK$4.70 (+43%) The company provides 1) casino services in Macau and 2) LMG sales to (Potential up/downside) Macau (monopoly protected by patent) and overseas casinos. Weak set Previous of 1H14 results and market sentiment caused the recent share price fall: 1) delayed LMG sales, 2) one-off early redemption loss of promissory Price Performance note, and 3) weak GGR trend of Macau. However, we expect to see two (%) major catalysts leading to strong earnings growth at 38.7%/42.7% in 400 1180 HSI Index FY14E/15E: 1) casino services keep growing strongly along with resilient 300 grind mass market (revenue up 28.6%/22.7% YoY in FY14E/15E) and 2) 200 increase in LMG deployment (revenue up 48.8%/80.0% in FY14E/15E). 100 In 2H14E, we expect to see 56.5% YoY earnings growth to HK$88.5mn. 0 Well-positioned to benefit from capacity expansion -100 Major earnings driver in the long term is LMG business. We believe LMG Sep/13 Jan/14 May/14 Aug/14 terminals are one of the solutions for upcoming casinos for both gaming table shortage and labour shortage in Macau. We expect 40.0% 3-year Source: Bigdata % 1m 6m 12m CAGR in the company’s LMG sales during FY14E-17E. 1180 HK (25.2) (48.1) 86.8 HSI (5.6) 8.2 2.4 Valuation/ Key risks Our PEG valuation target is at 33%-45% discount to our target for Macau Gaming casino operators to factor in 1) smaller market cap with less liquidity and Hang Seng Index 23678 2) management track record is not as strong as casino licensees in HSCEI 10584 Macau. Our 0.6x PEG target is in line with the current market valuation Key Data for overseas gaming machine suppliers. Key risks: 1) heavy reliance on 52-week range (HK$) 1.74-7.85 patents, 2) substantial cut of minimum bet in Cotai competitors and 3) Market cap (US$ mn) 450 corporate governance. Avg. daily volume (mn) 5.9 Financials BVPS (HK$) 1.12 Shareholdings Structure HKD mn FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E Jay CHUN 59.3% Revenue 729 1,030 1,360 1,815 2,215 SHAN Shiyong 2.5% Growth (%) 33.6% 41.4% 31.9% 33.5% 22.1% Bridger Management LLC 3.2% Net profit 106 97 134 191 280 No. of shares outstanding (mn shares) 1,064 Growth (%) 198.7% -8.9% 38.7% 42.7% 46.1% Free float 33.0% EPS (HKD) 0.04 0.15 0.13 0.18 0.26 P/E (x) 87.8x 21.7x 26.x 18.2x 12.5x EV/EBITDA (x) 14.4x 12.2x 8.3x 6.8x 5.x Dividend yield (%) 0.0% 1.5% 1.2% 1.6% 2.4% ROE (%) 27.3% 8.4% 11.5% 15.0% 19.5% Source: Company data, CMS (HK) estimates To access our research reports on the Bloomberg terminal, type CMHK <GO> 1 2014 年 9 月 29 日(星期一) 公司报告 招商证券（香港）有限公司 韩琦 汇彩控股 (1180 HK) +852 3189 6634 首次给予买入评级：恰当的市场定位，恰当的产品 [email protected] ■ 首次覆盖给予买入评级，12个月目标价4.70港元，基于FY15E PEG 0.6x及FY14E-17E EPS CAGR 43.9%。 最新变动 ■ 娱乐场服务仅锐意发展增长强劲的低端中场业务。因此跑赢暴露于高端 首次覆盖 市场的澳门同行。 ■ 澳门直播混合游戏机(LMG)的独家供应商。即将陆续开幕的氹仔新赌场 买入 以及更新换代的需求意味着良好的LMG销售的前景。LMG同样迎合低端中 前次评级 不适用 场玩家的需求，满足他们用较低的最小赌注玩赌台游戏。 股价 HK$3.28 评级上调的催化剂 12个月目标价 HK$ 4.70 （+43%） (上涨/下跌空间) 公司提供1）澳门娱乐场服务业务，2）LMG在澳门（受专利保护的垄断） 和境外销售。2014年上半年业绩及市场情绪均疲弱，导致近期股价下跌： 前次目标价： 不适用 1）延迟了的LMG销售，2）一次性的承兑票据提早赎回亏损，及3）澳门 博彩总收入的弱势。然而，我们预期看到两个主要催化剂，将带动14/15年 股价表现 盈利强劲增长38.7%/42.7%：1）娱乐场服务继续强劲增长，与低端中场表 (%) 汇彩控股 恒生指数 现同步（预测14/15年收入将同比上升28.6%/22.7%），及2）LMG的使用 400 增加（预测14/15年的收入将上升48.8%/80.0%）。我们预计，2014年下 300 半年盈利同比增长56.5%至8,850万港元。 200 100 进占有利位置受益于容量扩张 0 长远的盈利增长动力主要来自LMG业务。我们相信，LMG终端机是解决未 来澳门娱乐场赌桌和人手短缺的其中一个方法。我们预期，2014-17年公 -100 司LMG销售的3年CAGR将达到40.0%。 2013/09 2014/01 2014/05 2014/08 资料来源：贝格数据 估值/风险提示 % 1m 6m 12m 1180 HK (25.2) (48.1) 86.8 我们的PEG目标估值较我们给予澳门娱乐场运营商的目标有33%-45%折 HSI (5.6) 8.2 2.4 让，考虑到：1）公司的市值较小及流动性较低，及2）管理层的往绩不及 澳门娱乐场持牌者般坚实。我们的0.6xPEG目标与海外博彩机供应商现时 行业：博彩 的市场估值相符。主要风险：1）严重倚赖专利，2）氹仔竞争对手显著削 恒生指数 23678 减最低下注金额，及3）企业管治。 国企指数 10584 重要数据 52周股价区间（港元） 1.74-7.85 港股市值（百万美元） 450 日均成交量（百万股） 5.9 每股净资产（港元） 1.12 主要股东 盈利预测及估值 陈捷 59.3% 百万港元 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E 单世勇 2.5% 营业额 729 1,030 1,360 1,815 2,215 Bridger Management LLC 3.2% 同比增长(%) 33.6% 41.4% 31.9% 33.5% 22.1% 总股数 （百万股） 1,064 净利润 106 97 134 191 280 自由流通量 33.0% 同比增长(%) 198.7% -8.9% 38.7% 42.7% 46.1% 每股盈利(港元) 0.04 0.15 0.13 0.18 0.26 市盈率(x) 87.8x 21.7x 26.x 18.2x 12.5x 企业价值收益比率(x) 14.4x 12.2x 8.3x 6.8x 5.x 股息率(%) 0.0% 1.5% 1.2% 1.6% 2.4% 股本回报率(%) 27.3% 8.4% 11.5% 15.0% 19.5% 资料来源：公司资料、招商证券（香港）预测 彭博终端报告下载: CMHK <GO> 2 Monday, September 29, 2014 Investment thesis Both main businesses cater grind mass market. 1) It provides casino services (81% of FY14E revenue) in Kam Pek, Waldo and other casinos under the gaming license of SJM and Galaxy. The company targets grind mass only, which is more defensive from political and economic risks than VIP and premium mass. 2) Gaming system business (19% of FY14E revenue) is about LMG distribution in Macau and overseas, enabling grind mass players to bet for table games with lower minimum bet. The company is the sole distributor of LMGs in Macau, protected by Casino services are growing patent. ahead of its peers due to grind mass market Casino services: Strong ramp-up of Waldo brings surprise positioning. Focus on grind mass will surprise with outperforming results. Macau gaming sector has been suffering from weak demand from VIP and premium mass players due to on-going anti-bribery campaign. However, its flagship casino Kam Pek recorded historic high GGR in July 2014 of HK$165.3mn, while the sector suffered from 3.6% YoY contraction. The management expects further expansion of Kam Pek’s GGR in 2H14E. Waldo records rapid growth of table yield. After the handover to the company in Feb 2014, Waldo changed its marketing strategy from high- end to grind mass with minimum bet of c.MOP500. Timing of transition coincides with weakening VIP and premium mass market of Macau, LMG: solution for casinos helping its casino service business outperform the market in 2H14E. for gaming table and labour shortage. LMG business: Cotai expansion brings better visibility Table and labour shortage in Macau brings opportunity. Upcoming properties in Cotai are raising market’s concern on the shortage of gaming tables and hiking labour cost. We expect new casinos to get half of originally designed gaming table capacity due to the current table cap policy. It implies high probability for casino operators to install LMGs in remaining gaming area. Moreover, it will enable casinos to cater players with less employees (1 dealer can serve 100 LMG terminals). Gradual exposure to overseas with global partners. It signed partnership with IGT and Ainsworth for its LMG distribution in the US and Australia respectively, another critical earnings driver in the future. Strong fundamentals likely to support rally ahead of casino moguls Outperforming 2H14E results Recent collapse in share price due to weak 1H14 results: 1) less than will trigger re-rating ahead of expected LMG deployment and 2) net margin decline due to early Macau casino operators. redemption loss of promissory note. Apart from these company-specific factors, we believe sector-wide weak GGR was a reason. Worst has gone. Outperforming GGR growth will trigger re-rating. As a unique Macau company focusing solely on grind mass market, Paradise Entertainment keeps recording YoY expansion of monthly GGR YTD in both Kam Pek and Waldo. As a result, we believe it will bring the rally ahead of other casino operators who are suffering from weak high-end demand. Moreover, LMG sales in 2H14E will be stronger with contribution from overseas partners such as IGT and Ainsworth. Valuation gap with peers will narrow gradually. The company currently trades at 0.4x FY15E PEG/3-year EPS CAGR, at a discount to Macau casino operators 0.6x and global gaming machine suppliers 0.7x. The valuation gap will narrow with 1) resilient earnings growth of 38.7%/42.7% in FY14E/15E and 2) stabilization of margin with adoption of daily fee model in LMG business. To access our research reports on the Bloomberg terminal, type CMHK <GO> 3 Monday, September 29, 2014 Focus charts Figure 1: 16.2% FY13-18E CAGR for no. of slot Figure 2: No. of LMG sales to grow at 16.8% machines and ETGs installed in Macau FY13-18E CAGR in Macau FY18E FY18E FY17E FY17E Lisboa Palace, Galaxy Macau 3&4 FY16E FY16E MGM Cotai, Wynn Palace, FY15E Parisian FY15E Galaxy Macau 2, Studio City FY14E FY14E FY13 FY13 FY12 FY12 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Source: Company data, CMS (HK) estimates Source: Company data, CMS (HK) estimates Figure 3: Profitability to improve with economies of Figure 4: ROA and ROE improve after bottoming in scale FY13E due to setting up the US office 70% 30% 60% 25% 50% 20% 40% 15% 30% 10% 20% 10% 5% 0% 0% FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E Gross margin Operating margin Net margin ROE ROA Source: Company data, CMS (HK) estimates Source: Company data, CMS (HK) estimates Figure 5: Revenue from gaming system will grow Figure 6: EBITDA contribution from gaming system stronger than casino services.
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