V22, N9 Thursday, Oct. 13, 2016

Pence straddles the GOP cataclysm As Trump declares war on GOP, Pence fights through loyalty, Russian hacks & scorched earth By BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS – Hours after recoiled at ’s lewd remarks in a 2005 “” video tape with Billy – learning about them at a Toledo restaurant where he was to have a photo op with an autographed hot- dog bun signed by his running mate – the governor morphed from one who couldn’t “condone or defend” the verbiage, to finding a big man of redemption. “I am truly honored to campaign with him,” Pence said Monday morning on MSNBC. “I thought his Gov. Mike Pence greets Buckeye voters at Tony Packo’s in Toledo where he apology on Friday night was prepared for a photo op with a Trump autographed hotdog bun when the appropriate. I was offended lewd audio/video story broke. by his comments and urged hours later in North Carolina, Pence said Trump “literally him to show his heart to the American people and he did embodies the spirit of America. It takes a big man to know that Sunday night. Donald Trump made it clear that those when he’s wrong. And to admit it. And (to have) the hu- were only words. He hadn’t engaged in any of that behav- Continued on page 3 ior and I believe him. I am proud to stand with him.” A few Souder: Who are we? By MARK SOUDER FORT WAYNE – It was around 2 a.m. on a cold January night in Washington. Looking down at the from our room at the Hays-Adams Hotel, the lights were dim outside but it had a glow coming from the lights “It is not acceptable to ask a within. I was about to go live, worldwide, on BBC’s morning moral, dignified man to cast his news show. The evening before, Presi- vote to help elect an immoral dent William Jefferson Clinton man who is absent decency or had delivered his annual address to Con- dignity. If the consequences of gress. “These are good times standing against Trump is for America” he had told us. His message, however, had been indeed the election of Hillary overshadowed by the press conference the day before in Clinton, so be it.” which he famously said: “I - Conservative host Glenn Beck Page 2 have not had sexual relations with hypocrisy is the tribute vice pays that woman, Miss Lewinsky.” virtue. On the one hand, as we are BBC had previously tracked again learning – too much, too fast – me for a year, in Washington and why “locker room” talk is not generally back home in Indiana. When the a desired part of public discourse. It Republicans had taken over Congress was why “politically correct” became a in 1995, there was a lot of confusion common term. worldwide about what it would mean. The problem is not, however, At one point, in an interview in my just about being “politically correct.” hometown of Grabill, their host for the When Donald Trump made some out- Howey Politics Indiana equivalent show to 60 Minutes ex- landish claim in one of the debates, WWHowey Media, LLC 405 plained some ground rules for taping. and then tried to defend it as not Massachusetts Ave., Suite He explained that many of “politically correct,” another candidate 300 Indianapolis, IN 46204 the newer democracies around the corrected him by saying that “no, world, mentioning Russia in particular, Donald, it is just incorrect.” www.howeypolitics.com watched the BBC shows to explain The problem Trump is hav- what was happening in U.S. politics ing is not just “locker room” banter, Brian A. Howey, Publisher because they found American news but let’s discuss that for a minute. Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington made too many assumptions about Even ignoring that he was 59, with Jack E. Howey, Editor what they understood. For example, a reporter, and not in a locker room, I could say “Clinton” or maybe “Gin- it was not just “banter.” And it deni- Mary Lou Howey, Editor grich” or “the fresh- Maureen Hayden, Statehouse man” but don’t say Mark Curry, photography “Dole” or other names because we’d have to cut and re-tape. Most Subscriptions listeners had no clue HPI, HPI Daily Wire $599 who other legisla- HPI Weekly, $350 tors were. So keep it Ray Volpe, Account Manager simple. 317.602.3620 So as I prepared to go live email: [email protected] worldwide, I thought Contact HPI I was ready because I [email protected] had already done this Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 many times on their major shows. Like Washington: 202.256.5822 always, there was some chitchat first grates locker rooms all over this na- Business Office: 317.602.3620 with the news producer in London. tion because he implied it was univer- The focus was on Clinton’s speech and sal. © 2016, Howey Politics briefly on whether the Monica mess Some locker rooms may be Indiana. All rights reserved. would impact his ability to govern. But this way. Penn State comes to mind. I was not ready for the first question. But conversations about sexually Photocopying, Internet forward- Que music. Host comes molesting people is not typical. There ing, faxing or reproducing in on. Introduces who I am and then are times when talk can be offensive, any form, whole or part, is a asks something like this: “Why are more than just inappropriate, but violation of federal law without Americans so moralistic that you get Trump’s standard is far lower. Fur- permission from the publisher. all upset when a president drops his thermore, it appears that he is being pants in the White House? Why should protected from the release of further he have to apologize?” trash-talking, foul-mouthed tapes from I don’t remember how I re- NBC’s “Apprentice.” Like his tax re- sponded. Probably that we had expec- turns, he will falsely hold up legal rea- tations about our presidents. Possibly sons which, of course, he can waive if mixed in some history as he followed he treated the American presidency as up the original question. I do know the most important job in the world. that we didn’t talk economics. Some excuse this most recent It has long been said that evidence of unacceptable behavior for Page 3 anyone, yet alone a president, as being 11 years old. How- having led Trump to Christ. White says that she has talked ever, plenty of evidence has come out of his consistent with Trump on spiritual matters for over 15 years, a lot of behavior before and after. In this campaign he flashed his “locker rooms” and beauty queen dressing rooms ago. disdain for women who dared challenge him by attacking The deepening divide among Republicans is and Megyn Kelly. not just because of his lack of personal decency but it As for the recently released tape, Trump first apol- highlights a generally dumbed down, relatively incoher- ogized “if anyone was offended.” Trump’s second apology ent, contradictory, selfish, “back me or I’ll destroy you” was about as innocuous as his first one. Then he deflected approach to statist, big government. It is hard to avoid criticism as if he had actually apologized. During this inappropriate language this election, so I apologize for this campaign when asked about forgiveness, he replied “that direct quote from a focus group participant after the first he didn’t bring God into it.” What part of repentance, of debate: “He’s a jackass, but he’s our jackass.” Except he’s becoming a Christian, doesn’t bring God into it? How can not. Trump is not, nor has he ever been, a conservative or church leaders peddle the supposed faith of a man who a Republican. Specific issues are just a temporary tactic to didn’t understand step one? gain power and glory. “I drink my little wine, have my little cracker” is about to be elected president, response to a serious question about forgiveness, insults possibly by a huge margin. But the other question is this: the very sacrifice of Jesus Christ that enables sinners like Will there be an articulate opposition or are Republicans me and Donald Trump, and everyone else, to be saved. going to follow Trump and become another Clinton party? That isn’t “political incorrectness.” It is “incorrect.” Once anyone sells their soul for power, buying it back is A major personal disappointment to me are the hard. v Christian leaders in politics, but especially in Christian ministry, who are excusing or defending Trump. Christian Souder is a former Republican congressman from Minister Paula White is the person usually credited as Indiana.

incidents. A Bill Cosby/ pattern is now emerging. Pence straddles, from page 1 This juxtaposition of topics associated with the mility to apologize.” pious, sunny Indiana governor is evidence that we’re in He was reacting to Trump’s self-described “locker the midst of an epic and bizarre campaign. It has morphed room talk” that most American men abandon after junior beyond Paddy Chayefsky’s “Network” and George Miller’s high school (or, perhaps, the frat house). But here was the “Mad Max” into something we cannot yet understand 60-year-old Trump bragging about extra-marital conquests because the final chaotic chapters have yet to be played and “grabbing” female genitalia with this lethal line: “When out and written. The author of “Confessions of a Negative you’re a star they let you do Campaigner” now finds himself it. You can do anything.” trolleying with a presidential Humility goes only nominee on the precipice of a so far. As Pence watched down-and-dirty end game that Sunday night’s surreal will scorch the earth and the debate between Trump and reputations of those who dare Hillary Clinton at the Indi- give it an imprimatur. It comes ana Governor’s Residence, with apparent ties between the there was former President Trump/Pence campaign and Pres- Bill Clinton in the gallery ident Putin’s Russian government, along with past sex partners which has hacked its way into the , Juanita Broad- upper hierarchy of the Clinton drick, Kathleen Willey and campaign. It roils in an outright Kathy Shelton. Standing a few yards away was Melania feud between Trump and Pence ally House Speaker Paul Trump, wearing a Gucci fuchsia pussy-bow blouse, perhaps Ryan, which could eclipse the very majority that brings the a statement of defiance so subtle as to have gone unno- Wisconsin speaker power. ticed on North Meridian Street. With Trump acknowledging a probable defeat, During Sunday’s debate, Trump was asked by An- Pence was confronted with a woman named Rhonda in derson Cooper if he had sexually assaulted women, some- Iowa on Tuesday. “I will tell you just for me – and I don’t thing Trump denied and Pence accepts. By this morning, want this to happen – but I will tell you for me, person- four women came forward to the Times, People ally, if Hillary Clinton gets in ... I’m ready for a revolution Magazine and the Palm Beach Post detailing more groping because we can’t have her in.” Page 4

“Yeah, you don’t want “There is no merit to Donald – don’t say that,” Pence respond- Trump’s claims of widespread voter ed. He tried to shift her back fraud in , and to sug- into a two-century-old American gest otherwise simply has no basis tradition. “There’s a revolution in fact,” said Pennsylvania Gov. Tom coming on November the 8th,” Wolf. “His attempts to delegitimize Pence said. “I promise you.” The the election in Pennsylvania are dis- fact is, Trump has opened a Pan- graceful and dangerous.” Having said dora’s Box of demons, with hope that, Indiana State Police are now retreating. conducting a voter fraud investiga- The next month promis- tion in dozens of counties. es more than the kind of Reagan The rigged scenario prompted or Gingrich revolution that oc- conservative commentator Charles curs at the ballot box and not in Krauthammer to observe, “Look, I’m the streets. Last spring, Politico not sure you can call these mis- gathered five Trump biogra- takes. I think they’re a reflection of phers, Wayne Barrett, Gwenda who he is. Everybody expected the Blair, Michael D’Antonio, Harry pivot to being presidential, to being Hurt and Timothy O’Brien. In a conciliatory, to bringing the party reunion conference call on Mon- together, and it never comes. People day, the tone was ominous. This, say mistake after mistake. At some they said, is not a show. It is not point you have to ask yourself, is he an act. Donald Trump is, the biog- capable of conducting himself in any raphers said, “profoundly narcis- other way.” sistic,” “willing to go to lengths we’ve never Potential fallout seen before in order to At this writing, satisfy his ego,” and “a with Clinton leading Trump very dangerous man in the a post-second for the next three or debate NBC/Wall Street four weeks.” Journal Poll by 9%, and Even the most with Trump holding just sacred American value, a 5% lead in the WTHR/ that of a peaceful, Howey Politics Indiana harmonious transition Poll of Oct. 3-5, the down of power between ballot consequences are political enemies after now just coming into play, an election, is now though lacking focus. threatened by the Democrats have to be Trump/Pence ticket. looking at the 2nd and 9th In the lifetimes of our CDs as potential pickups in readers, we’ve seen an outright tsunami. Richard Nixon decide With Republican against a recount after John F. Kennedy fraudulently won Senate nominee , Rep. and 9th and Illinois. On Nov. 9, 1960, Nixon conceded, CD nominee unwilling to cut ties with telling journalist Earl Mazo, that “our country cannot af- Trump, in part out of loyalty to Pence, in part for fear of ford the agony of a constitutional crisis.” A century prior, alienating the volatile Trump base, they now descend into historian Michael Beschloss noted that defeated Democrat a political “Alice in Wonderland,” a rabbithole unlike any Stephen Douglass held President Lincoln’s top hat on his other. lap during the inaugural address as the nation descended The NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll gave into Civil War. Democrats a 7-point lead on the question of which party On Monday in Wilkes-Barre, Trump renewed yet voters want to control Congress next year. NBC News again talk of a “rigged election,” saying, “I just hear such reported: It’s too early to know whether the damage to reports about . I hear these horror shows and Trump will be lasting, especially since the post-tape polls we have to make sure that this election is not stolen from thus far render a split decision on his standing relative to us and is not taken from us. And everybody knows what I last week. Moreover, even the newest polls can’t gauge the am talking about.” impact of Sunday night’s second debate, if the rancorous Page 5 clash moved the numbers at all. Ben Tulchin, a Democratic “Access Hollywood” video “disturbing, unsettling, disap- pollster, said a 6-point lead for Clinton in national polls pointing” but said the alternative of Democrat Hillary would give Democrats a long shot at winning back the Clinton becoming president was “unsatisfactory.” Indiana House. An 8-point lead would really put the House in play, Democratic Chairman is attempting to make Tulchin wrote in an email, and a double-digit lead would them all pay, saying on Tuesday that Hoosier Republicans give Democrats “very good chances of winning back the “should be ashamed of themselves” for continuing to House.” approve of Trump’s candidacy despite his remarks about “Is this just a dip, or are our feet in cement? It women. He said those officials are “putting party over feels like our feet are in cement,” Rob Jesmer, a former country.” executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, told Politico. “But we don’t know yet. It’s not Pence straddles history just this week’s data. It’s next week. We need to know if With Pence, there was a weekend of speculation this is a blip or if it sticks. In most of these places, just that he might resign the ticket, as dozens of Republicans having the Republican vote is not enough. It’s pick your jumped ship, many of them openly wishing that Trump poison: Are you worried about your base not turning out? would step down and Pence ascend. The problem with Or are you worried about that is many state ballots are not getting swing vot- already printed, and early ers?” voting is now underway in A growing dozens of states. consensus among the The governor is not pundit class is that while drawing big crowds. In Trump threw out enough Fort Wayne on Sept. 30, a anti-Clinton red meat at little more than 300 Hoosier Sunday night’s debate to Republicans showed up for a embolden his base, he rally with him, Holcomb and did little to expand his Young. On Tuesday in North appeal to independents Carolina, only 400 attended. and moderates still leery This presents cross currents. of Clinton. It is a worst Indiana has a record 4.7 million people registered to vote, case scenario for many GOP incumbents who are now many new voters coming from the Trump camp, although between a rock and a hard place. In doing so, he froze Bernie Sanders also expanded the voting pool. One prom- the process of Republicans abandoning ship that began en inent Hoosier Democrat told HPI that there is concern the mass over the weekend. Even so, USA Today reported on polls are not picking up all the Trump support. “The guy Wednesday that 26% of Republican governors and mem- at the water cooler at the office downtown isn’t going to bers of Congress are refusing to endorse Trump. Of the say he’s voting for Trump because he’ll be perceived by 31 Republican governors, 54 GOP senators and the 246 his co-workers as anti-female,” the Democrat said. “But Republican members of the House (331 total), the survey he wants to blow up Washington.” identified 87 who are not endorsing Trump’s candidacy as While Bloomberg’s Mark Halperin said on Monday of late Tuesday. “It is an extraordinary demonstration of that Pence was weighing his options over the weekend, the fracture Trump’s candidacy has revealed in the Repub- on CNN Monday morning, Pence tried to quash such a no- lican Party,” USA Today reported. “There is no precedent tion. “It’s absolutely false to suggest that at any point in in modern American political history for elected officials of time we considered dropping off this ticket,” he said. either party to refuse en masse to support their presiden- “I’ll always keep my conversations with Donald tial nominee.” Trump and my family private,” Pence told CNN’s Alisyn This erosion of support has yet to occur in Indi- Camerota on “New Day.” “But it’s absolutely false to sug- ana, simply because many Hoosier Republicans remain gest that at any point in time we considered dropping loyal to Pence, even after he kept between $5 million and off this ticket.” Running with Trump, Pence said, “is the $6 million of his reelection campaign war chest out of the greatest honor of my life.” hands of Lt. Gov. Eric Holcomb. Pence is invested in his deal with Trump. He is Holcomb is taking a nuanced approach. “It is my riding a violent bronco, a metaphor Joe Scarborough used full intent to support the Republican nominee, but no one in a different context (the Trump campaign is like the O.J. should ever take my vote for granted,” Holcomb told the Simpson Ford Bronco chase in slow motion). Pence has Associated Press on Tuesday. “Over the coming 30 days, a war chest of $5-$6 million he can spread to potential I’ll evaluate it each day as we go forward.” It appears 2020 allies during the 2018 election cycle. to be right out of the playbook of former U.S. Sen. Dick The question at this writing is whether he will be Lugar, who has taken a similar stance. doing it within the Republican Party, or the Trump Party. Holcomb called Trump’s lewd remarks in a 2005 v Page 6

said. Young faces dilemma Bayh’s linking Young to Trump could be the best path to achieve that. On Tuesday, Bayh campaign man- ager Paul Tencher said, “Todd Young says he will be an in Trump separation ‘independent voice’ in the Senate but he is too small and By BRIAN A. HOWEY scared to stand up to his own presidential nominee even INDIANAPOLIS – In the weeks following Donald when many members of his own party have had the Trump’s twitter tirade against a beauty queen, and days courage to rescind their support. Hoosiers want to know after Trump’s lewd “Access Hollywood” audio/video sur- if Todd Young is going to vote for Donald Trump despite faced, the Republican Party plunged into a widely de- Trump’s lewd and disgraceful bragging about sexual as- scribed “civil war” and pressure to denounce the nominee sault, and Young won’t even give them a straight answer. ratcheted up for U.S. Rep. Todd Young, who is engaged in Instead of being upfront and honest with Hoosiers, his a cliff-hanger against Democrat Evan Bayh. campaign continues to evade tough questions while Todd Deep in the cross tabulations of the Oct. 3-5 Young contrives his next best political maneuver around WTHR/Howey Politics Indiana Poll lie a data set that shows his own crisis of leadership.” that Young’s cutting any sem- “The only thing more shocking than Donald Trump blance of ties with Trump would bragging about sexually assaulting women is that Repub- be problematic. It might endear lican senators and Senate candidates are still supporting him to independent female voters him for president,” said Lauren Passalacqua, Democratic who could decide this race, but Senatorial Campaign Committee press secretary. “In stick- such a stand would hurt him with ing with Trump, Republicans like Marco Rubio, Pat Toomey, a base of Trump supporters more Richard Burr, Todd Young and Ron Johnson are condoning than likely to turn out. his behavior, and that is just disgusting and wrong. Voters Young has long employed the so-called “10 foot will hold these candidates accountable for their cowardice pole,” saying for months he would support the nominee. at the polls in November.” But he did not attend the Republican National Conven- With Trump radioactive with a wide swath of the tion in , nor has he appeared with Trump at any electorate (but not his base), and with Republican U.S. Indiana rally or fundraiser. The closest he came was a joint Sens. John McCain, Jeff Flake, Mike Crapo, Kelly Ayotte, rally with Gov. Mike Pence and Lt. Gov. Eric Holcomb in Deb Fischer, Mike Lee, John Thune, Rob Portman and Fort Wayne on Sept. 30. Nevada Senate nominee Joe Heck joining dozens of other On Monday, Politico Republicans (including the reported that Young is still in- last four presidential nomi- tending to vote for Trump. “The nees) all announcing they majority of Hoosiers Todd speaks won’t vote for Trump, why with are still supporting Donald isn’t Young following suit? Trump despite their deep res- Cross tabulations in the ervations, because it’s the only WTHR/Howey Politics Indi- way to ensure we don’t have ana Poll reveals the so-called another four years like the last “double-edged sword” for eight as Hillary Clinton and Evan Young. As we analyzed last Bayh would ensure,” said Young week, independent women spokesman Jay Kenworthy in an voters hold the key to this email. “Congressman Young is election. While Young leads focused on his campaign, which Bayh among independent will decide who controls the males 41-32%, he trails with Senate. No matter U.S. Rep. Todd Young prepares to make phone calls with independent women 39-35%, who wins the presidential elec- campaign volunteers Aaron Minnich and Tyler Woodward, 13, though Young holds a 38-35% tion, Congressman Young will be at the Clark County GOP headquarters in Jeffersonville on lead among all independent an independent voice in Wash- Saturday. (News & Tribune photo by Josh Hicks). voters. ington, not a rubber stamp for In other female cat- any party’s agenda.” egories, Bayh leads 47-33% With the Sept. 26-28 WTHR/Howey Politics Indi- among women age 18-54, 47-42% among those age 54 ana Poll showing Bayh leading Young by just 42-41%, poll- and up, among women with college degrees at 50-34% ster Gene Ulm of Public Opinion Strategies sees a clearer and among women without degrees 46-39%. path for Young to win because the Bayh brand is widely The dilemma for Young comes with Trump vot- perceived as establishment, a dangerous station this year. ers, whom he needs to fortify his base. Among all Trump “Evan Bayh is going to have to destroy Todd Young,” Ulm voters, Young has a 78-13% lead. Among voters who have Page 7 a favorable image of Trump, Ryan appeared with Gov. Scott Young leads 74-14%. Those Walker and U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson, with an unfavorable opinion of and was heckled by Trump support- Trump, Bayh leads 63-16%. ers with shouts of “shame on you” Among voters who view Gov. and “you turned your backs on us.” Pence favorably, Young leads ABC News reported that Wisconsin 70-18%, whereas Bayh has a Attorney General Brad Schimel, the 63-19% lead among those who only speaker to directly address have an unfavorable opinion. Trump’s crude remarks, was heck- With voters who hold led when he said, “I know Donald both Trump and Clinton in Trump has said some things that are disdain, Young has a 38-30% bad.” lead. “Get over it!” someone shouted. With key issues, those Dennis Karbowski, a trucker from who back Trump on jobs are Elkhorn, called Ryan a “traitor,” add- supporting Young 69-17%; on ing, “Mr. Trump is human. We’ve Trump and immigration, Young all said those things. ... Either you leads 71-17%; and on the issue believe in your party or you don’t. I of Trump and terrorism, Young don’t like Judases.” leads 72-14%. Two days later, Speaker Ryan To understand Young’s sparked ire within the House Re- reticence to make a clear break with Trump, look no fur- publican conference when he announced he would not ther than Elkhorn, Wis., last Saturday. House Speaker Paul campaign with Trump, and told members, “You all need to Ryan, a close ally of both Young and Gov. Pence, had just do what’s best for you and your district.” He stopped just described Trump’s lewd video as “sickening” and asked short of rescinding his tortured endorsement. Trump not to attend. Pence decided to cancel his substitu- Like Young, U.S. Reps. Jackie Walorski in the 2nd tion appearance to reassess the situation. CD and Trey Hollingsworth in the 9th CD, both in potential Page 8 tightening races, have denounced Trump’s video remarks. used taxpayer money to travel to New York City since But they are not withdrawing their support. Walorski told 2002. In response to IndyStar’s inquiries, the campaign the Elkhart Truth, “Rather than engage in political punditry, said in early September that Bayh didn’t meet with anyone I will continue to do what I’ve always done: Run an issues- from Apollo during those trips. “Turns out, that wasn’t the based campaign focused on Hoosiers.” case,” the Star reported. Traveling through the 2nd and 9th CDs, particu- “We now know why Evan Bayh has avoided larly in rural areas, is to find them spackled with Trump/ answering questions about what he’s been doing the past Pence yard signs. six years, and we now know why he delayed releasing his public financial disclosure,” the Indiana Republican Party Bayh’s wealth in the spotlight said in a statement Monday. “He didn’t want Hoosiers to While Democrats seek to exploit Young’s Trump know that he spent his last year in the Senate making problem, Bayh is dealing with more fallout from the wealth votes on behalf of his future employers, and his employers he made while serving in the U.S. Senate from 1999 to rewarded him handsomely.” 2011, and the fact that he was job searching before exit- The Star and the Journal Gazette reported that ing office, apparently at taxpayer expense. Bayh’s financial disclosure shows his net worth has shot And, HPI has heard anecdotally from up dramatically since he left office, a number of Democrats that many are still largely because of his work for Apollo. angry at him for bolting his 2010 reelection He he has received more than $2 million campaign at the 11th hour just before the in income from Apollo since January February filing deadline, even though Bayh 2015 and another $400,000 as a corpo- had told President Obama in September rate board member at Berry Plastics, a 2009 that he was “98% certain” he would position he obtained because Apollo was not seek a third term. That would have been once one of the Evansville-based com- news the could pany’s largest shareholders. Bayh also have used months before the bombshell. reported Apollo-related assets valued at That set off what we’ve called the “Bayh $5.7 million to $20.6 million, the report dominoes” that preceded the Democratic shows. Those investments generated Party’s southern Indiana erosion that has an additional $91,400 to $239,100 in in- seen the loss of two congressional districts, come. In all, Bayh and his wife, Susan, leaving just a handful of General Assem- have amassed between $13.7 million bly seats in party hands. Bayh also left the and $47.7 million in assets, a significant scene with almost $10 million, most of which he hoarded increase over the $6.8 million to $8 million he reported in until he forced out of the race in July. a 2010 disclosure form during his final year in office. More Tuesday’s newspaper editions were instructive. than 40% of his current assets are related to Apollo or The Fort Wayne Journal Gazette reported that Bayh was Berry Plastics. worth $30 million, according to his recently filed Senate financial disclosure form, which he delayed for more than The final month two months. That followed a Saturday Associated Press Bayh, Young and Libertarian Lucy Brenton will story that revealed Bayh stayed overnight three times at meet for their only debate at 7 p.m. next Tuesday at one Apollo executive’s New York City residence, and met WFYI-TV. It will be a potential matchup between the twice with the company’s chief executive, Leon Black. The Marine and the lawmaker turned lobbyist. In the week report was based on Bayh’s previously unreleased 2010 leading up to this fateful showdown, expect Bayh and his schedule. super PAC allies to tether Young to Donald Trump. And Also on Tuesday, the IndyStar reported that Bayh expect Young and his allies to paint a U.S. senator who met several times with executives from Apollo Global enriched himself while in office. Management during his final months in the U.S. Senate, a direct contradiction of what his campaign has said in Bayh has money edge recent weeks. Bayh landed a lucrative job with private eq- Bayh heads into the homestretch with a $5 million uity giant Apollo Global Management shortly after leaving to $1.6 million cash advantage over Young, though Young office in January 2011. He had in the months prior worked had a third quarter advantage, $3.4 million to $2.5 mil- against a tax increase on carried interest and a provision lion. Bayh had just under $10 million when he entered the of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform Act that would have race in late July. Young has remained competitive with the hurt the bottom lines of companies like Apollo. help of super PACs, including the National Rifle Associa- The timing of the new job prompted IndyStar to tion, the National Republican Senatorial Committee and ask Bayh’s campaign about a half dozen taxpayer-funded the Senate Leadership Fund, a group with ties to Senate trips Bayh took to New York City during the last half of Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. v 2010. The flurry of travel was unusual for Bayh; he hadn’t Page 9 Bayh no longer seen as unbeatable By MAUREEN HAYDEN CNHI Statehouse Bureau INDIANAPOLIS – knew he’d be up against a tough candidate when he entered the U.S. Sen- ate race in 1998. His opponent was Birch Evans Bayh III, known as “Evan” to Hoosier voters who’d sent his famous father to serve in the U.S. Senate for 18 years. The younger Bayh was coming off two terms in the state’s highest office, a job he’d won at age 32, gaining national recognition as the country’s youngest governor. Bayh’s first gubernatorial win had broken a 20-year grip on the office by Re- publicans. A popular centrist in a conservative state, he was easily re- elected four years later by 25 points. Still, Helmke’s Senate bid caught the attention of , which deemed it the toughest Sen- ate election that year. The newspaper described Helmke, a Yale law graduate and former Fort Wayne mayor who’d Clinton regains lead in Wisconsin headed the U.S. Conference of Mayors, as “well-creden- The Marquette Law School poll shows Clinton with tialed.” The same story called Bayh blessed with a “fa- a four-point lead over Trump in a head-to-head matchup, mous name” and “good looks.” 46 percent to 42 percent. Her margin increases in a sub- Helmke lost with 35 percent of the vote to Bayh’s sequent question, when respondents are also offered the 64 percent. options of Libertarian Gary Johnson and Now, at age 60, Bayh faces his Green Party nominee Jill Stein: In the first truly competitive campaign in an four-way ballot test, Clinton leads Trump, effort to take reclaim his old Senate 44 percent to 37 percent, with Johnson seat. Millions of dollars are pouring into at 9 percent and Stein at 3 percent. Indiana to help his rival, three-term U.S. Rep. Todd Young. And people like Clinton has 9% lead in PA Helmke, who once found themselves Hillary Clinton holds a commanding in the wake of a candidate considered 9-point lead on Donald Trump in the criti- unbeatable in Indiana, are wondering cal state of Pennsylvania in a Bloomberg if time has finally caught up with Evan Poll. Clinton has 51 percent to Trump’s Bayh. 42 percent in a two-way race statewide. Bayh parachuted into the race in July, pushing out the less popular Clinton up 12% in Michigan primary winner Baron Hill, with nearly A Detroit News poll conducted $10 million in campaign cash. He had after the second presidential debate far more money than Young’s $1.2 mil- shows Hillary Clinton up by almost 12 lion. Early polls showed Bayh leading percentage points over Donald Trump in by 21 points. But Young has closed the Michigan. According to The Detroit News gap, and the race is a near dead heat. poll conducted Monday and Tuesday, The country is again watching since Clinton garnered 42.2 percent of support Democrats need the seat if they hope to from likely voters, compared to Trump’s regain control of the Senate. 30.6 percent. Third-party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein received 10.3 Other people’s money percent and 4.6 percent, respectively. v Money is flowing into the race, story/2016/10/michigan-polls- but that wasn’t the case for Helmke back in ‘98. His struggle to squeeze Page 10 cash from big donors and outside forces came as no sur- Republicans hope for. “We think Indiana is going to be the prise. “Evan was considered safe from day one,” he said. Democrats’ Waterloo,” Steven Law, president of the Senate Helmke found a shred of hope late in the cam- Leadership Fund, told The Associated Press. “They are go- paign, when the National Republican Senatorial Committee ing to spend a fortune here. And they are going to lose.” sent an urgent fundraising letter to donors warning that Bayh and his campaign repeatedly declined to the GOP was in danger of losing the Indiana seat, then return calls. But in an interview with The New York Times held by Republican . Helmke called the commit- in late September, he already blamed outside forces for tee to ask when he’d see the money. “We’re not giving you the disappearance of his gaping lead. A conservative super the money,” he said he was told. “We’re saving it for other PAC associated with brothers Charles and David Koch states, for races we can win.” pledged to spend at least $1 million in the race. The Na- Helmke isn’t the only former Bayh opponent tional Rifle Association announced last month a $500,000 watching in wonder as Young, 44, makes a contest of what ad buy to attack Bayh’s “anti-gun record.” was supposed to be a walkaway for Democrats. Marvin “Yes, I’m surprised, but that’s the Citizens United Scott, who ran against Bayh in 2004, said he’s still bitter world we are living in,” said Bayh, referring to the U.S. Su- that big party donors didn’t contrib- preme Court’s 2010 ruling that removed ute more to his campaign, though he major limits on political fundraising and raised nearly $3 million on his own. spending. A Butler University sociol- ogy professor, Scott saw himself as No longer unbeatable a promising candidate, an African- Political analysts and Young’s American Republican who better Republican supporters see it differently. reflected the state’s conservative Bayh, they say, is no longer unbeatable. politics than Bayh. But, as he trav- “The last time Evan Bayh was on the bal- eled the state, Scott said, he kept lot was 12 years ago,” said Andy Downs, encountering women – including Re- director of the Mike Downs Center for publican women – who told him they Indiana Politics. “There’s a whole genera- liked Bayh for his looks. “I thought, Democrat Evan Bayh campaigns at the Vigo tion of young voters who don’t know who ‘How do you beat someone that’s County Democratic HQ in Terre Haute, where he is.” more handsome than you are?’ ” he a picture of his father hangs on the wall. Rudy Yakym III, a Republican recalled. Scott lost the race by 24 (Terre Haute Tribune-Star photo by Jim Avelis) fundraiser from near South Bend, con- points. curs. “Evan Bayh was elected when I was four years old,” he Sensing opportunity said. “A generation of voters have no memory of him other This year’s contest isn’t such a slam-dunk for than when he left the Senate to permanently live in D.C.” Bayh. For one thing, his opponent is getting multi-million- Yakym’s swipe about Bayh’s residence echoes a theme of dollar help from the same national committee that once Young’s campaign. turned away Helmke. Also, the numbers are breaking After unexpectedly quitting the Senate in 2010, Young’s way. A week ago, a new WTHR/Howey Politics claiming he was sick of its hyper-partisanship, Bayh joined Indiana poll showed Young rising to within one point of a Washington law and lobbying firm, McGuireWoods. Bayh, at 40 percent to Bayh’s declining 41 percent. The Though he kept a voting address in Indiana – at a small, difference between them is well within the poll’s margin of one-bedroom condo in Indianapolis – he and wife, Susan, error of plus or minus four points. now own two multi-million-dollar homes in Washington. Republicans, having done internal polling, have Young, putting to use the millions pouring into sensed the narrowing gap, and they see opportunity. Late his campaign, has painted Bayh as an aging D.C. insider last week, a major GOP political action committee, the Re- who is beholden to special interests. His ads, meanwhile, publican Senate Leadership Fund, announced it is plowing cast Young in an image that recalls a younger Bayh. He is $8.5 million into the race, with television buys on Young’s energetic and fit. Young’s ads stress his service as a U.S. behalf. That’s twice what it originally pledged to spend. Marine. And, they promise, he is more closely aligned with That’s forced Bayh to beg for more money from small Hoosiers’ conservative sentiments. and big donors alike. In late September, the Democratic Yakym said he called Young on the day that Bayh Senatorial Campaign Committee revealed it was doubling made his surprise announcement back in July, amid re- its original commitment to the Indiana campaign and now ports that prominent Democrats including presidential can- plans to spend at least $5 million to support Bayh. didate Hillary Clinton had persuaded him to run to reclaim Howey Politics publisher Brian Howey predicts his old seat. Political forecasters were already handing the the race will eclipse the $50 million spent four year ago, race to Bayh. “But Todd knew things had changed in Indi- when longtime U.S. Sen. Richard Lugar lost his seat to ana, that it wasn’t the 1990s anymore,” said Yakym. “He Democrat . Big spending is exactly what some knew Evan wasn’t unbeatable.” v Page 11

tive. I love this district, how it is a slice of what America Walorski talks about looks like. It’s not Republican and not Democratic; it’s a compilation of Democrats, Republicans, a lot of indepen- dents and ballot-splitters. I love the fact that we are the her tough reelect bid largest manufacturing district in the country; that we are By THOMAS CURRY hard-working Hoosier families and that I grew up here. GOSHEN – Locked in another close reelection bid, This is my home and it means so much to me to fight for U.S. Rep Jackie Walorski plans to call on her experience Hoosiers, and it doesn’t matter what background they in Washington to differentiate herself from the Democrat come from. I take it very seriously and I am very passion- challenger, Lynn Coleman. The Coleman campaign argues ate about fighting for this district. that Republican Walorski has been inaccessible to voters HPI: You agreed to two debates coming up. What of the 2nd CD, only agreeing to two debates despite there will you use to differentiate yourself from Lynn Coleman? being many more invitations. What would you say is the biggest difference between Coleman and the libertarian candidate, Ron Cen- you? kush, will be holding a debate Walorski: I don’t necessarily know Lynn’s plans. without Walorski’s attendance on I haven’t heard much from him; I have heard more about Nov. 1 at WKUZ in Wabash. debates than anything else. The problems in this country With fewer than 30 days are many, maybe we will hear about those in these two to go, HPI sat down with Walorski debates. One of the clear differences between us is his to share her thoughts on the cam- loyal support of Obamacare. I have voted against Obam- paign, her opponent, the pressing acare 40 times. Every time we would vote in the house, issues of the day and her work in Congress. President Obama would make jokes about Republicans HPI: This year, Indiana has exciting races going trying to repeal Obamacare. But that leveraged a lot of on. As a down-ballot candidate, how do you think these pressure that grew every time we voted to repeal and got races affect your campaign? How do they help you or hurt us a two-year suspension of the medical device tax. So, you? while President Obama was laughing, he knew that the will Walorski: What our campaign has done and will of the people was being protected. Stopping that medical continue to do is no different than any other year. I have device test was because of my work on Congress voting a large grass roots base, and we have a lot of momen- no on Obamacare. I have seen and I have heard Coleman tum, as we always do. We are making carry the flag for Obamacare before, which is thousands of phone calls and I am all a failed policy that has fallen apart. over the district like I always am. We HPI: The question for Obamacare is are pedal to the metal. This is a swing “what now?” If it gets repealed, what system seat, the only swing seat in Indiana, should be put in place? and we never stop. It’s not like we Walorski: The House has sat down with stop planning after the election. No, physicians and come up with some good the very next morning we are back plans. That is opening up the states and to doing what we always do, that is allowing free market competition, just like fighting for Hoosiers and being all over any other insurance. Allowing folks to keep the place to meet with constituents their children and young people on their plan so we can interact. We keep a pretty until age 26, there are ways to negotiate heavy schedule both in D.C. and back those things. Just allowing folks to keep their home every weekend. So, we have doctors would be huge. That was one of the done nothing different than we do biggest promises broken by the President. every year. This is a busy time, but we Not being allowed to keep the doctor who feel we are in very good shape and may have been a longtime family friend and very strong. Other races come and go; we are consistently delivered your children is not right. Putting people back in steady and don’t deter from that plan. control of their health care and not allowing government HPI: Talk a little bit more about this swing seat to dictate health care, that’s what we need in our district. district. You have been in some close elections before and The cost has already risen dramatically. We are looking this year many pundits have pegged it a potential upset. anywhere from a 10- to 20-percent increase in cost in Why do you think it is that way and what do you think 2017. This district is predominately middle-class double-in- about your opponent, Lynn Coleman? come households, and they can’t afford to continue paying Walorski: Well, I have known Lynn since I was more and getting less. much younger, when I was a reporter and he was a police HPI: As you travel around the 2nd and when officer. As for the district, it was just drawn this way. When people call your office in Washington, what issues do you I was a state legislator, this district was heavily competi- find matter the most to your constituents? What positions Page 12 have you taken and what have you done in Congress to when IDEM was an advocate for family farmers, and their deal with those issues? job was to make sure Hoosier companies would not run Walorski: In Indiana, national security is a grow- into an unfamiliar federal violation. EPA has become a ing industry, over two billion dollars now in investment. In heavy-handed rules-generating and revenue-generating Congress, I wanted to be on the Arms Services Commit- organization. Our folks have to keep up with the fees and tee because I care a lot about national security and the the fines and they still have to go out and hire. When it jobs it brings into our state. One thing I have done on the comes to economic health in our area, I am fighting for Arms Services Committee, just this past session, is pass a them to get these regulations off their backs. I have sat on bill stopping the release of the Gitmo detainees until after a subcommittee focused on nutrition, finding way to stop this President leaves office or until the National Defense this cycle of poverty. Hunger and poverty go hand in hand. Authoritarian Budget is enacted, whichever comes first. We have vetted ideas on how to break that cycle and get I think this is really important. Folks in this district are people to the point where they can stand up on their own very concerned about national security. They care about again, because it really is a fiscal cliff. Those are the issues terrorists with blood on their hands who are killing our that I have looked at and worked on behalf of this district, soldiers. I vehemently opposed the Iran deal, which the its national security, economic security and taking care of President concocted on his own, because for the three our veterans. I am on the Veteran Affairs Committee and and a half years I have been in office, I have been very it was shocking to see all the promises made to the finest passionate about keeping this country safe. All the meet- fighters the world and then this government doesn’t keep ings and classified briefings tell me the Iran deal was one those promises. I seriously try to protect our veterans. of the most irresponsible things a person could do. About HPI: We hear sad stories about how hard it is for economic security in our district, it is fighting to free our many veterans when they get back home. What needs to manufacturers from heavy-handed regulations. In a district change in Washington, or what does Congress have to do as industrious and entrepreneurial as we are, there still to fix this? isn’t a large or small company that doesn’t tell me these Walorski: I have helped pass legislation on this regulations are killing us. The frustration and the amount issue. The Arms Services Committee is bipartisan, so col- of money being kept from hiring additional people is just leagues from both sides of the aisle work with me on this. incredible. I share their frustration because I remember There needs to be a level of transparency that doesn’t Page 13 exist. When we did the big V reform bill a couple of years 2nd Amendment, I co-sponsored the lifetime gun permit ago, we rolled out the choice program for rural veterans bill when I was in the Statehouse. There is a balance we who have community based hospitals. If they are dealing need to achieve, and that is why I am interested in that with something terminal or chronic, they should be able to mental health bill. get treatment near home where their family can support HPI: Being in office for two terms now, what are them. My father was a veteran and ultimately died from the biggest challenges you have faced? How have you cancer. He wasn’t in the VA system for that cancer therapy. dealt with bipartisanship when it seems like there is so Veterans do so much better when they have support of much gridlock? family and people around them who care about them. We Walorski: You can’t move legislation in the Con- have taken solid steps forward, but we have a long way to gress without both sides coming together and working it go. A recent bill I was involved in was a large bipartisan throughout the system. I happen to be on two extremely bill on the issue of the opioid epidemic. I worked with the bipartisan committees. From day one it is imperative to DEA to allow every prescription to have another govern- make partnerships across the aisle. I have had support on ment agency look at it. That turns the spigot off, adding the bills I have pushed through the system because I have accountability to giving prescriptions in Indiana. made those partnerships. HPI: As you said earlier, national security is an HPI: Congressional approval rating is at a historic important issue in this campaign. Many Hoosiers consider low and it seems like nothing gets done. What has to it one of their most important issues. What do you think change to get Congress back from this 10% approval rat- the next president and the next Congress have to do dif- ing? ferently? What mistakes have been made? Walorski: The gridlock in Congress revolves Walorski: Certainly, we have not had a com- around the top 10 ideological differences between Demo- mander in chief. When the commander in chief removes crats and Republicans. Most bills that go through Congress himself from that position,it allows vacuums to form haven’t been controversial, say 90% of what we vote around the world, that those vacuums have filled them- on. The only thing Americans hear is when something is selves. Now we have an out-of-control situation with ISIS, contentious and then the media drives it. I spend my time we have a radical in North Korea testing out his own little every day working on issues that Hoosiers care about and warheads. We have China who is building airstrips in the need. I don’t spend my energy getting in big fights. I went South China Sea. We have an over aggressive Russia there to take Hoosier values and common sense to make and Putin who have never been punished by this country a difference. When you look at the bills I have sponsored except for a scolding and we have red like military sexual assault and VA opioid lines drawn by the President in Syria overdoses, it’s common sense stuff. I want that he doesn’t follow. As they march to make a difference for Hoosiers and that’s past the line and started gassing their what I focus on every day. I’m not looking own people, we just stood by and let for fights and 15 seconds on some cable that happen. The last seven and a half show. That’s why I come back here every years we have been disjointed, and that weekend and make sure that I look my con- is very dangerous. Both our economic stituents in the eyes and do exactly what I account and perspective on national went out there do. security have weakened. The next HPI: What do you think the next Con- president has to have a plan to take gress needs to start with right away? global precedence. We have problems Walorski: Tax reform. We have that need to be addressed immediately. got to make our tax code more competitive. HPI: What are your thoughts It’s our country that’s been on the losing on the recent mass shootings and gun side of tax reform and it’s our middle class violence? What do you think Congress that’s been on the losing side. Entitlement can do to help fix that? reform is getting this issue of poverty be- Walorski: One idea is to focus hind us and doing common sense things as on mental health. Rep. Tim Murphy has I have been doing in Congress. worked on for decades on a bill coming HPI: What historical figures or closer to moving up; it redefines mental political leaders do you consider role mod- illness and handles things differently. els? There is a good chance that bill will be Walorski: I have always been debated. impressed by Margaret Thatcher. I grew up HPI: Where does gun control with running for president fit into that? when I was in college and I was fascinated Walorski: It goes hand in by the idea of peace through strength. v hand. I am a strong supporter of the Page 14

opinion, three Republican-appointed judges gave Catholic Tobin’s defiance caught Charities and Exodus Refugee more legal cover. Judge Richard Posner wrote that no evidence has been offered showing refugees pose a “terrorist threat.” the Pope’s attention He called Pence’s unfounded security claims to be “night- By MAUREEN HAYDEN mare speculation.” CNHI Statehouse Bureau In hearing of the ruling, Tobin and Varga both INDIANAPOLIS – Catholic Archbishop Joseph Tobin thought of the Syrian families they’d met. The families had had just celebrated the annual Red Mass for lawyers and arrived in Indiana from wretched refugee camps with little judges when he heard details of last week’s court ruling money, so often huddled together, just yearning to breathe striking down Indiana’s ban on Syrian refugees. free. For Tobin, the ruling was affirmation of what he says The mass had included a message from state Su- is the imperative, not just of a Christian community but of preme Court Chief Justice Loretta Rush, a Catholic, quot- civil society. That is, he said, “to welcome people who are ing St. Thomas More, the patron in such great need and have endured such suffering as of politicians and lawyers: “I die these refugees have.” the king’s faithful servant, but His decision to defy the governor led the news God’s first,” More said moments stories announcing Pope Francis’ decision to elevate Tobin before his head was chopped off to the prestigious rank of cardinal, giving him a vote in for defying King Henry VIII. future papal elections. Tobin, named by Pope For Varga, it was affirmation of his work. “This is a Francis on Sunday as one of the humanitarian effort we’re engaged in,” he said. church’s new cardinals, found The men shared another reaction to the court some comfort in More’s quan- ruling. They described an outpouring of support, in money dary. For 11 months, Tobin has and volunteers, that has come into their refugee resettle- engaged in some defiance of his ment programs since Pence’s order. The first big mon- own. Last November, Gov. Mike etary donation to Catholic Charities came just a day after Pence directed state agencies to cut off funding to Catho- Pence’s order, from a Jewish congregation in Indianapolis lic Charities and Exodus Refugees for their resettlement who said they had no fear of the refugees. programs for Syrian refugees. “This notion of Hoosier Hospitality, I don’t Demand had been growing. Nearly a half million think it was a cutesy slogan cooked up by the tourist civilians have been killed in the nation’s civil war, accord- board,” Tobin said. “It’s a sincere value that people have ing to some estimates, many of them at around here have long had.” the hands of their own leader. But Pence Tobin and Varga believe, too, personally asked Tobin, of Indianapolis, that the ruling will aid and comfort to stop any more Syrian families from the refugees as they work to make coming to Indiana, for fear of Islamic Indiana their home. Both men said extremists who might lurk among them they’ve worried that anti-immigrant The governor, now Donald sentiment stirred by Pence’s running Trump’s Republican running mate, mate in the presidential campaign has repeated those fears during Tuesday’s the potential for danger. nationally televised vice presidential de- “I think it will enhance their sense bate. He claimed his order was a matter of security,” Tobin said. “They’ll know of national security. “As governor of the this country is not about the narrow state of Indiana, I have no higher prior- rhetoric that has unfortunately charac- ity than safety and security of people terized this political election.” in my state,” Pence said. “So, you bet I Bishop Tobin, is scheduled to suspended that program. And I stand by that decision.” speak Friday at the on the moral But Tobin said “no” to Pence back then. So imperative of welcoming refugees. It seems a bit ironic did Cole Varga, director of Exodus Refugees. Since that doesn’t it, that it’s happening at one of the nation’s lead- November order, the organizations have quietly resettled ing Catholic instiiutions, in a state led by our anti-refugee more than 150 Syrian families in Indiana, according to governor. v both men. A score or more families are still waiting to come before the year’s end. Maureen Hayden covers the Indiana Statehouse Pence’s order turned out to be a political gesture for CNHI’s newspapers and websites. Reach her more than a pragmatic one. Early on, a federal judge at [email protected]. Follow her on Twitter @ issued a preliminary injunction blocking his order. On MaureenHayden. Monday, a U.S. Appeals Court upheld the decision. In their Page 15

but sometimes dangerous position for a politician who is Trump moves are leading. She cited Michelle Obama – “When they go low, we go high” – and said Trump wasn’t telling the truth about some of his accusations but generally decided not disqualifying GOP to engage. We suspect the Republican base loved Trump’s By LARRY SABATO, KYLE KONDIK performance, further driving a wedge between party and GEOFFREY SKELLEY leaders, many of whom asked Trump to leave the race CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va. – In the broad sweep over the weekend, and GOP voters, who will support the of U.S. history, very occasionally one of the major parties nominee in large numbers. But we also don’t think Clin- simply disqualifies itself from the contest to win the White ton did anything to turn off her own base, and in fact she House by nominating an unelectable, non-mainstream enthused them in some ways. candidate. We suspect that there will never be a better In other words, this felt like a status quo debate to example than Donald Trump. The us. And if that is indeed the case, Republican Party chose a deeply the outcome is fine for Clinton, divisive figure, one not supported because she had reestablished a by many senior figures in the GOP clear lead in the race going into the even before the release of Trump’s weekend. raunchy 2005 discussion with Access Hollywood’s (and It will take another round of polls to grasp the full now The Today Show’s) superficial, celebrity-worshipping impact of the Trump tape and the debate. While it’s tempt- . (Yes, he is of the , so a Bush finally ing to speculate that Trump will free fall, party loyalty in speared Trump, however unintentionally.) Their X-rated this era is probably too strong for that to happen. But even discussion, and Trump’s insistence on discussing Bill Clin- before the debate, Hillary Clinton has gotten fairly strong ton’s sordid past, has caused voters to usher children out numbers. That’s translating to an improved outlook for her of the room when the TV news comes on. Is this the most in our Electoral College ratings, which are starting to look embarrassing campaign ever? very similar to the map we had before Clinton’s September It must be close. swoon. There are some amusing aspects to this, including the parade of top Republicans who are shocked, shocked Ratings changes: Electoral College that Trump is capable of lewd, vulgar, crass talk and be- We’re making several ratings changes this week, havior. What did they think they were getting? Only now all of them in favor of the Democrats. do they consider Trump unworthy of their support? And First of all, Ohio moves all the way from Leans they find themselves in a tough spot because there has al- Republican to Leans Democratic in the Electoral College. ways been more resistance to There has been a lot written Trump among the party lead- about why Donald Trump will per- ership than the rank and file. form better in Ohio than national- The vast majority of self-iden- ly; we devoted an entire article to tified Republicans will vote it last week. Both the state’s his- for Trump, and they may be tory of having a slight Republican angered by the party leaders lean and its current demographics who have retracted their en- make it friendlier to Trump than dorsements. One thing that’s the nation as a whole. However, clear to us is that the idea of polling in the state is showing Trump actually dropping out that Donald Trump’s lead from a is nearly unimaginable – and, few weeks ago has evaporated, no, the Republican National and the most recent surveys Committee is not going to actually have had Clinton ahead. remove him from the ticket. We’ve also caught wind of some The Republicans have been unreleased polling that mirrors stuck with Trump ever since these results. If Clinton has a his victory in the Indiana primary on May 3, and practically national lead of around four or five points, there’s good speaking before that as well. reason to think that Ohio will end up voting for her, even if As we always say, it’s hard to be very confident it has a redder tint than usual. about what a debate will do to public opinion. We suspect The Clinton campaign also appears to be redou- that Trump will get better reviews for this one than his first bling its efforts in this historic bellwether, further putting to debate, if only because it would be hard for the reviews bed rumors that the Clinton campaign might not be focus- to be any worse. Clinton seemed like she was just trying ing much on the state (although one never knows what to run out the clock much of the night, which is a natural Page 16 might happen in the final month of this contest). Clinton for more than half a century. Trump still seemingly leads in herself campaigned on Monday in Columbus, a place Arizona, but the state’s growing Hispanic population should where she will likely need to match or probably even ex- be energized to vote against Trump, and the state also has ceed Obama’s performance to win the state, and President a decent-sized number of Mormons, conservative voters Obama is campaigning in Cleveland and Columbus later who don’t like Trump. in the week. On Thursday, Trump will be in Cincinnati, the Speaking of, some readers may be startled by our heart of vote-rich southwest Ohio, a conservative region shift of the only Mormon majority state, Utah, from Safe that is vital to any Republican’s statewide chances. Republican all the way down to Leans Republican. But the If Clinton wins Ohio, Trump has no path to vic- recent developments in the Beehive State have been noth- tory. No Republican has ever won the White House without ing short of jaw-dropping. Trump has been weak there all it, and, particularly in this election, Ohio’s demographics along, thanks to the strong, continuing opposition of fa- should make it relatively low-hanging fruit for the Repub- vorite son Mitt Romney, among others. In the state’s GOP licans. So we now have Trump as the underdog in Florida, caucus, Trump was walloped, receiving a mere 14% of North Carolina, and Ohio, three electoral vote-rich states the vote to Ted Cruz’s 69% and John Kasich’s 17%. Early that he absolutely needs to have any chance to win. surveys showed Trump ahead in the general election race The same logic we’re using in Ohio we’re also but running far, far below the massive majorities Utah has applying to Nevada, a state where polling has been very regularly delivered to GOP presidential candidates since close all year but which should probably lean to Clinton if 1968 (Romney received almost 73% in November 2012). she’s leading nationally by an Obama 2012-style margin. Utah went from having a Republican nominee perfectly The Silver State, which like Ohio almost always votes for designed for the state, Romney, to one who is an almost the winning candidate, goes from Toss-up to Leans Demo- uniquely poor fit. cratic. So too does the single electoral vote in Nebraska’s And then came the 2005 “Access Hollywood” 2nd CD, a relatively diverse, well-educated district where tape. In short order, a long list of Republican officials (in- Trump doesn’t have the same kind of appeal that Mitt cluding Gov. Gary Herbert, Sen. Mike Lee, and Reps. Jason Romney did. Chaffetz, Mia Love, and Chris Stewart) denounced Trump. We’re also going from Leans Democratic to Likely The Deseret News, long viewed as close to the leaders Democratic in Michigan and Pennsylvania, where Clinton of Utah’s dominant Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day now seems to have reasserted herself after some tighten- Saints (Mormons), wrote a scathing editorial repudiating ing before the first debate. That’s particularly true in the Trump. In a state where character matters a great deal, Keystone State, where her lead in polling averages right the Trump sex-talk tape was a deal-breaker. It is unclear now is bigger than the 5.5 point margin of victory Obama what will happen now. v enjoyed there in 2012. These states ended up being bridg- es too far for even George W. Bush, and Donald Trump is more Billy than George W. Looming over all of these states are two key factors: Clinton is almost certainly going to have a major ad-spending advan- tage in all of the states, and she is very likely to have a better-funded and organized ground game ef- fort. We also wonder if we’re snapping back to the point in the race where some regularly red states might be moving back with- in grasp for Clinton. Polls have often shown a close race in Arizona, a state that has consistently voted sig- nificantly more Republican than the national average Page 17

service providers whose jobs are disappearing because of Demonization makes robots, machine learning, and other irreversible changes in how work is accomplished. Politicians need to place much more emphasis for hard governance on economic growth, which is the key that unlocks many By LEE HAMILTON doors and is the preferred course to ease the anxiety and BLOOMINGTON – We have to be able to disagree cynicism abroad in the country. Growth should be the cen- in this country without tearing into and trying to destroy tral aim of economic policy, and how to achieve it should the opposition. The politics of demonization that character- be the focus of the policy debate. izes this election will make it very hard for whoever wins The problem is, this election isn’t providing us office to govern well. with a substantial policy debate. We’ve heard plenty about This campaign year has been full of twists and personality, vision, and the alleged dirty dealing of people turns. We don’t know what’s going to happen tomorrow, on the other side. Serious debate about policy approaches let alone on Nov. 8. So talking about what comes after- has been replaced by sound bites signifying... well, not ward seems premature. But it’s been on my mind a lot, very much. because I’m worried. This is not Indeed, if anything characterizes this election, it’s about who wins the presidency. the politics of personal destruction. Demonizing the oppo- I’m concerned about the after- nent has become the central concern of many campaigns, math of this campaign season up and down the political ladder. This approach is toxic for and how hard it’s going to be for democratic institutions and political culture. We have to be our next set of elected officials, able to disagree in this country on matters of great import from the President on down, to and controversy without tearing into and trying to destroy govern. the opposition. Let’s start with the belief We have always had, and should have, vigorous expressed by a lot of people, partisanship. But today, politicians prefer hunkering down including some candidates, that with their fellow believers and party members and circling the system is “rigged.” This the wagons. This makes it very hard to get negotiations is a perilous way to treat the going, which is the only way to make the system work. country’s political system; it sows distrust in future elec- All of this: The attacks on the system, the lack of tion results, de-legitimizes winners, and undermines the meaningful debate about improving Americans’ economic government’s credibility. If the charge takes hold, it will future, the generally substance-free nature of the cam- put political stability at risk. paign, the politics of demonization, will make it very hard We all have criticisms to make of the system. We for whoever wins office to govern well. The anger, frustra- know it doesn’t work perfectly and that there’s no short- tion, cynicism and outright pessimism that we’re seeing in age of challenges the nation needs to address. But to this election cycle will not miraculously dissipate on Elec- convey the impression that the whole system is rigged is tion Day. dangerous and risky. Without a basic foundation of trust, It used to be that when a president came into representative government crumbles. Instead of taking office, a substantial majority of the American people gave aim at “the system,” we could instead focus our criticism him the benefit of the doubt, and with it an extended on a more substantive target: Politicians, including the two period in which to get things done. I don’t believe that’s presidential candidates, who have failed to serve us well in going to happen after this election. And all Americans will their debate on the economy. be worse off as a result. v Much of the debate has revolved around im- migration, trade, and other issues of the moment. These Lee Hamilton is a Senior Advisor for the Indiana are not unimportant, but they’re not the heart of the University Center on Representative Government; matter. The real issue, the one that politicians have prof- a Distinguished Scholar, IU School of Global and fered few solutions for, is that the economy is not working International Studies; and a Professor of Practice, for most people. True, there’s been some improvement IU School of Public and Environmental Affairs. He in the lot of middle-income earners, but the fundamental was a member of the U.S. House of Representatives issue that economists of all stripes have been warning us for 34 years. about remains. This is that we face significant structural problems, driven not so much by foreign competition and immigrant workers, but by advancing technology and glo- balization. Our real economic challenge, in other words, is how to provide meaningful work and good wages to tens of millions of clerks, accountants, factory workers and Page 18

cause Trump’s campaign seemed to be imploding. How- Lake Democrats look ever, a question remains about the pairing of the signs. And, that is who stands to gain the most. v for boost from Gregg By RICH JAMES MERRILLVILLE – When the 30-day rule kicked in around Northwest Indiana last week, it became increas- ingly clear who was tagging his wagon to whom. 9th CD facts vetted by WTHR Most area communities have adopted an ordi- INDIANAPOLIS (WTHR) - A wide open House seat nance limiting the placement of political yard signs to the in the 9th Congressional District has the two candidates 30 days prior to an election.Those ordinances lately have battling it out over the airwaves. Democratic Monroe come under fire and there is a move afoot to get rid of County Council member is running against them. Lake County Commissioners Republican businessman Trey Hollingsworth. 13 Investi- Attorney John Dull recently said the gates takes us inside that race and looks at the labels each ordinances are unconstitutional. candidate is trying to make stick on their opponent. Until the ordinances are wiped away, Yellow light: Did Shelli Yoder “repeatedly” vote municipalities seem to be adhering to raise taxes? From the radio, to the TV, attack ads by to the 30-day provision. Trey Hollingsworth are drawing attention. “Good grief, I’ve Accordingly, the yard signs sprout- heard enough about socialist Shelli,” said the woman’s ed last weekend and it is interest- voice in a radio ad paid for by the Super PAC Indiana Jobs ing to note whose signs are being Now. “Shelli Yoder voted repeatedly on the County Council paired. At the heart of the matter is to raise taxes,” the announcer said in the television ads John Gregg, the Democratic can- paid for by Trey Hollingsworth for Indiana. 13 Investigates didate for governor. It’s interesting reviewed council minutes from Monroe County and found whose signs appear with Gregg’s. There are Gregg and Yoder did vote to raise taxes in 2014 and according to Shelli VanDenburgh signs together as well as Gregg and news reports, it was to pay for youth services. But this Tom O’Donnell signs side by side. year, Yoder cast the sole single vote against a public safety VanDenburgh is trying to win back the 19th House tax. District seat she narrowly lost to Republican Julie Olthoff Green light: Trey Hollingsworth moved to Indi- two years ago. VanDenburgh held the seat in the heart of ana last fall; father created Super Pac Indiana Jobs Now Lake County for four terms. O’Donnell is taking on incum- Hollingsworth also criticizes Yoder, a Hoosier by birth, for bent Republican Hal Slager in the 15th House District on moving outside of Indiana for ten years. At the same time, the west/central side of Lake County. the Yoder campaign tags Hollingsworth as Tennessee Trey. O’Donnell took on Slager in 2012 after new ​“Trey Hollingsworth...moved to Jeffersonville in September House districts were drawn following the 2010 Census. and declared his candidacy the next month. He’s already O’Donnell, an attorney and former county councilman, spent millions and his father even started a Super Pac to came within a whisker of defeating Slager. Slager easily help,” said the ad by Shelli Yoder for Indiana. Trey Hol- defeated Democrat Jim Wieser, an attorney and longtime lingsworth is a wealthy businessman who did in fact move Democratic player, in 2014. from Tennessee to Indiana last fall. Based on records from O’Donnell was giving serious thought to running the Federal Election Commission, Hollingsworth’s father, for sheriff in 2018, but party Joe, did in fact create the Su- officials convinced him to per Pac Indiana Jobs Now. run for state representative. Then there’s the radio ad O’Donnell conceded, thinking by Indiana Jobs Now call- that with Donald Trump head- ing Yoder a socialist. Her ing the Republican ticket that campaign tells us that is an he stood a good chance of “outright falsehood,” and that winning the House seat. their candidate has never Winning the 15th and been associated with the so- 19th districts are important to cialist party. Those claims both Democrats if they are to break get red lights for the Holling- the Republican super-majority sworth team. There is abso- in the House. O’Donnell, as lutely nothing that suggests he was putting up signs last Shelli Yoder supports socialist weekend, said he felt good government. v about the race, largely be- Page 19

Gary Legum, Salon: For just a fleeting moment when introduced to women. By Saturday night, Pence was this past weekend, it looked as if Republican vice presiden- back on that script, according to reports in the Wall Street tial nominee Mike Pence might escape from his decaying Journal. v orbit around Donald Trump with what is left of his dignity intact. Talk of Pence’s escape came amid the weekend Jon Webb, Evansville Courier & Press: For Todd of fallout over the leak of Trump speaking on a Young, the “choice” is this: Support Trump and your politi- about his treatment of women he finds attractive, in the cal future may be cooked. But your political future may be process revealing an attitude towards the opposite sex cooked if you don’t support Trump. It’s a choice Joseph so gross and demeaning that even a Neanderthal might Heller would appreciate if Joseph Heller wasn’t dead. So say, “Whoa, dude; that’s over the top.” The tape was here Young is, forced to bend to party will at the breaking point for many Republican of- the expense of his spine. Our system of govern- ficeholders who had long grown weary of the ment values blind loyalty over intelligence. And candidate and his smoking ruin of a campaign. if Young is telling the truth, and is determined to Quite a few took advantage of the moment a live a principled political life based on com- to officially withdraw their support, suggest- mon sense and bipartisanship, well, he better get ing Trump should quit the race and Pence used to being alone. v should replace him at the top of the ticket. Had Pence made a statement that, of course, he would Weekly Standard: There is one not accede to a plan that subverted the will of Republican Jonathan Last, important sense in which Donald Trump “won” the debate voters who had made Trump the presidential nominee, he on Sunday night: He did not implode. He wasn’t “good,” might have tamped down at least that part of the crisis. or attractive, or knowledgeable. He was coarse and whiny Instead, having condemned the remarks and saying that and unpleasant. He lied constantly. And he became the he was grateful Trump had “expressed remorse” over his first presidential candidate in the history of our Republic comments, he mostly disappeared. When Trump holed up to promise that if elected he would attempt to have his inside his eponymous New York skyscraper to confer with opponent face criminal prosecution. Actually, he went a advisers about handling the crisis, Pence was not there, bit further than that, telling Clinton that if he is president, though as a longtime politician he certainly might have “You’d be in jail.” Which, by the by, should terrify you and had some good advice to offer. By the time of the debate be disqualifying all on its own. But Trump didn’t have a on Sunday night, rumors were spreading that Pence would psychotic break onstage. And clearing that bar might be quit the ticket on Monday. They were exacerbated when, enough to keep Mike Pence, Paul Ryan, and Reince Priebus during the debate, moderator Martha Raddatz mentioned from publicly disavowing his candidacy this week. And to Trump that his position on what America should do that, ladies and gentlemen, is what a win looks like for about the Syria crisis differed from that of his vice presi- Trump these days. v dent pick. Trump fixed her with a stern squint and said, “He and I haven’t spoken, and I disagree” in a voice so icy you could have played hockey on it. But minutes after the Michael Gerson, Washington Post: This sad end of Sunday night’s debate — a grotesque spectacle that Republican fate is deserved. It is the culmination, the frui- saw Trump threaten to jail his opponent, all but stamp his tion, of an absurdly simplistic anti-establishment attitude. feet over what he claimed was moderator bias in Clinton’s The Trump campaign is what happens when you choose a favor, and generally act like a toddler who doesn’t want to presidential candidate without the taint of electoral ex- go to bed — Pence was tweeting out his congratulations to perience — and all the past vetting that comes with it. It the candidate “on a big debate win.” v is what happens when you pick a candidate who has not engaged in serious public argument over a period in which his or her views and consistency can be tested. It is what Dave Bangert, Lafayette Journal & Courier: happens when you embrace a candidate only on the basis Mike Pence woke up Saturday morning coming to the of an outsider persona, who lacks actual political skills — conclusion that he was in no mood and no condition to like making a policy argument, empathizing with a voter go stand next to House Speaker Paul Ryan and bear the or avoiding a constant stream of distracting gaffes. This suragant’s brunt of the latest — and possibly crippling is what Republicans get for devaluing the calling of public — revelations about his running mate, Donald Trump. “I service. When you have contempt for politics, you often do not condone his remarks and cannot defend them,” get a politics worthy of contempt. Until recently, it was Indiana’s governor said, as pundits and Republican leaders presumed, by both critics and supporters, that the GOP alike were using the phrase “the dam broke.” A campaign was the party of traditional moral order. Under Trump, it season’s worth of uneasy support gave way on the Re- seems much more like British conservatism at its worst — publican presidential candidate after a decade-old “Access hate and mock the liberals, fear the outsiders, and put a Hollywood” tape showed Trump talking about how star topless woman on Page 3.v status gave him the green light to “grab them by the p----“ Page 20

Trump’s campaign, the recent video of U.S. works with Georgian counterparts Women say Trump the candidate from 2005, and the rift to monitor disease trends in the re- groped them between Trump and House Speaker gion and protect dangerous pathogens Paul Ryan (Bunker, Newsmax). “Paul from falling into the wrong hands. NEW YORK — Several women will focus on his job to make sure we say Donald Trump lied during the sec- have Republican house majority after Early voting ond presidential debate when he said this election. I think Paul very clearly that he never groped understands the problems of a Hillary starting strong women in the manner Clinton presidency,” the Indi- BLOOMINGTON — Early vot- he described on a 2005 ana Republican said of Ryan’s ing started Wednesday with a bang. recording, according fallout with Trump. “This is By afternoon, around 300 people had to reports published a non-traditional situation,” come to Election Central at 401 W. Wednesday by The New he continued. “I understand Seventh St. to cast a ballot, elec- York Times, People and traditionally we’ve been able tions supervisor Laura Dahncke said the Palm Beach Post. On the 2005 to grab the banner of our (Bloomington Herald-Times). A total tape, Trump tells Access Hollywood nominee and full-throated scream of 173 people voted on the first day of host Billy Bush that when he sees and cheer like at a college football early voting during the May primary, attractive women, “I just start kiss- game. That is not where we are but and 128 voted during the first day of ing them. It’s like a magnet. Just kiss. the stakes are very high. Frankly I early voting in the municipal elec- I don’t even wait. And when you’re think the vast majority of Republicans tion last October. A WISH-TV reporter a star, they let you do it. You can do across the country are behind our posted on Twitter that 987 people anything.” But, he has repeatedly nominee.” voted Wednesday at the Marion dismissed the remarks as “locker room County clerk’s office in Indianapolis, a talk.” When asked during Sunday’s Superintendent 31 percent increase from the first day debate if had ever actually done what of early voting in 2008. he described in the tape, Trump said, hopefuls to debate “No, I have not.” At least five women FORT WAYNE — IPFW will Arredondo to visit have now contradicted that de- host a debate between the state’s nial with stories of aggressive sexual two candidates for Superintendent of 324 Mex restaurants advances. One woman says Trump Public Instruction (WANE-TV). Demo- grabbed her breast and put his hand crat Glenda Ritz and Republican Jen- INDIANAPOLIS — On the up her skirt on a flight three decades nifer McCormick will debate at noon campaign trail, Lorenzo Arredondo, ago. Two other women say Trump Monday in the Classic Ballroom in the the Democratic candidate State At- kissed them on the mouth at their first Walb Student Union on the campus torney General, visits the state’s 324 meeting. Another says Trump grabbed of IPFW. Doors open at 11:30 a.m. supermercados and Mexican res- her butt at a 2003 event at his Mar-a- taurants to reach Spanish-speaking Lago estate. And a reporter for People Donnelly visits Hoosiers, passing out brochures and says Trump forcibly kissed her before other freebies (Beilman, News & an interview in 2005. “It is absurd to Lugar Center Tribune). His message - now is the think that one of the most recogniz- time for Latinos to make their voices able business leaders on the planet TBILISIS, Georgia — U.S. heard in elections. “Understand what’s with a strong record of empowering Sen. Joe Donnelly visited the nation at stake here, because if it doesn’t women in his companies would do the of Georgia to review U.S.-supported happen now it’s not going to hap- things alleged in this story, and for efforts to counter the threat of nuclear pen in my lifetime,” Arredondo said, this to only become public decades and biological terrorism, a news re- referring to Republican presidential later in the final month of a campaign lease stated. According to the release, nominee Donald Trump’s stance on for president should say it all,” said Ja- Donnelly met with Georgian lead- immigration. There’s been a concerted son Miller, a Trump spokesman (CNN). ers and security forces to reinforce effort to engage eligible Latino vot- the importance of the U.S.-Georgia ers recently. Arredondo claims that if Messer wants relationship and toured facilities along twice as many Latinos in Indiana vote the Georgia-Armenia border tasked in this year’s election as they have infighting to end with identifying, stopping, and deter- in the past, results of state elections ring the trafficking of nuclear and could swing in favor of the Democrats. INDIANAPOLIS — Rep. Luke radiological material. The senator Messer appeared on and also visited biological research labs, addressed GOP nominee Donald including the renowned Lugar Center for Public Health Research, where the