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Impact Analysis of the Greek Shipping Industry January 2020 Limitations

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Impact Analysis of the Greek Shipping Industry January 2020 Limitations Impact Analysis of the Greek Shipping Industry January 2020 Limitations • This Report has been based on published data and other sources referred herein. Deloitte has not conducted any independent review, audit or examination of this information and thus carries no responsibility for its accuracy or completeness. • No part of this report is or may be assumed to be binding regarding future developments. It must be noted that some of the assumptions adopted in this Report, as well as estimates for the future development of various figures, may possibly change, leading to a possibly substantial change of the relevant results. All future - financial or other - projections provided herein are only indicative and depend on the implementation of various assumptions and prerequisites adopted and reported herein. • The use or reliance on this Report by any party and any decisions based on it are the responsibility of the party using it. Any potential recipient must rely solely on its own independent estimates regarding future performance and results. By using this analysis, such party consents that Deloitte has no liability with respect to such reliance or decisions. Deloitte accepts no liabilities for damages, if any, suffered by any party as a result of decisions made or actions taken based on this report. © 2020 Deloitte Central Mediterranean S.r.I. Impact Analysis of the Greek Shipping Industry 2 Global growth The Chinese economic deceleration had a major impact to the GDP growth rate in 2015. In 2019 trade wars are yet again slowing down the world economy although it is forecasted that growth rates will recover mainly driven by the sub-Saharan, Asian and the Middle East markets. GDP at current prices (2012-2024) 15,0% 10,0% 5,0% 0,0% -5,0% -10,0% -15,0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 World Euro area North America Sub-Saharan Africa Middle East Asia and Pacific Source: IMF, 2019 © 2020 Deloitte Central Mediterranean S.r.I. Impact Analysis of the Greek Shipping Industry 3 Volume of exports High growth of the volume of exports of goods from Southeast Asia is still expected to be the main trend of the coming years. On the other hand, export growth deriving from Euro area and Middle East & Central Asia is stagnating. Volume of Exports of Goods Growth Rate (2015 – 2024) 14% Southeast Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and LatAm markets are expected to 12% drive exports growth in the foreseeable future 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019* 2020* 2021* 2022* 2023* 2024* World Euro area Latin America and the Caribbean Sub-Saharan Africa Middle East and Central Asia Southeast Asia Source: World Economic Outlook, IMF, 2019 © 2020 Deloitte Central Mediterranean S.r.I. Impact Analysis of the Greek Shipping Industry 4 Freight prices Prices for transported cargo have fallen sharply during the last years as the result of the imbalance between supply of fleet and demand. Baltic Exchange Dry IndexS Baltic Exchange Dirty Tanker IndexS 4500 1500 4000 10-year low All time low Aug 2016 3500 1300 Feb 2016 @ 515 3000 @ 290 1100 2500 900 2000 1500 700 1000 500 500 0 300 Source: Investing.com © 2020 Deloitte Central Mediterranean S.r.I. Impact Analysis of the Greek Shipping Industry 5 Seaborne trade & global fleet Global seaborne trade as well as fleet capacity continue to rise, however, at a diminishing growth. Global fleet supply growth rates from 2012 onwards have been significantly reduced. Global Seaborne Trade Global Fleet Capacity(*) (2010 –2018) (2010 – 2019) 12.000 2.200 10,9% 7,0% 11.000 2.000 10.000 1.800 8,3% 5,0% 7,0% 4,5% 9.000 4,1% 1.600 6,1% 3,4% 3,5% 8.000 2,6% 2,8% 1.400 3,9% 3,5% 3,3% 3,1% 3,3% 1,8% 2,7% 7.000 1.200 6.000 1.000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Metric Tons (in millions) Growth DWT (in millions) Growth Source: UNCTADstat 2019, Deloitte Analysis © 2020 Deloitte Central Mediterranean S.r.I. Impact Analysis of the Greek Shipping Industry 6 Greek Shipping Industry in numbers Member firms and DTTL: Insert appropriate copyright Presentation title 7 [To edit, click View > Slide Master > Slide Master] [To edit, click View > Slide Master > Slide Master] Greece: The top Shipping Nation Greece remains a global shipping stronghold, while Greek Ship Owners, as leaders in the sector, control roughly 20% of the global fleet in terms of capacity (*) Vessels Dead-Weight Tonnage Rank % Global Country of ownership # Vessels Total dwt (mn) (dwt) Capacity Greek Flag remains the 2nd most preferred flag in EU (behind Malta) 1 Greece 4,536 349.2 17.8% and ranks 9th in the world 2 Japan 3,822 225.1 11.5% 3 China 6,125 206.3 10.5% The Greek fleet is also 1st in terms 4 Singapore 2,727 121.5 6.2% of value surpassing the $100Bn milestone in 2019 5 Hong Kong, China 1,628 98.1 5.0% 6 Germany 2,672 95.5 4.9% (*) According to the UGS Annual Report 2018- 7 Republic of Korea 1,647 76.7 3.9% 19, (based on the IHS Markit World Shipping Encyclopedia 2019) the Greek- 8 Norway 2,038 61.1 3.1% owned fleet in 2019 numbers 4.936 vessels with a total of 390 mn dwt, representing 9 United States 1,975 58.4 3.0% roughly 21% of the global feet 10 Bermuda 532 58.2 3.0% Propelled seagoing merchant vessels of over 1,000GT ranked by dead-weight tonnage Source: UNCTAD Review of Maritime Transport 2019, Deloitte Analysis © 2020 Deloitte Central Mediterranean S.r.I. Impact Analysis of the Greek Shipping Industry 8 Greek-owned Fleet Greek ship ownership is on the rise, surpassing global growth rates in terms of supply (both in number of ships and in available capacity), effectively positioned for an anticipated market recovery. Global vs Greek Interest Fleet (number of vessels, Global vs Greek Interest Fleet growth index 2014–2019) (capacity growth index, 2014 – 2019) 119 122 119 115 117 111 115 114 109 108 111 110 2014: 100 2014: 106 105 100 2014: 108 104 103 107 100 101 103 100 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Greek Global Greek Global Greek interest fleet remains strong, while exhibiting impressive growth rates in capacity. Source: UNCTADstat 2019, Deloitte Analysis © 2020 Deloitte Central Mediterranean S.r.I. Impact Analysis of the Greek Shipping Industry 9 Greek fleet vs global fleet age Greek Ship-Owners continuously renew and expand their fleet with an age profile well bellow the world fleet’s average. Greek vs. Global Fleet Age Distribution Greek Fleet Age Improvement Greek vs. Global Fleet Average Age (2000-2018) (2013-2018) 1,4% 3,7% 9,9% 10,2 10,2% 10,1 20,3 10,0 34,3% 9,9 18,2% -54% 9,6 9,5 9,6 9,6 9,3 9,3 9,0 8,9 60,7% 61,7% 8,6 2000 2018 Greece World 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018 Greece World 0-9 years 10-14 years 15-19 years 20+ years Source: Petrofin Research 2018, Hellenic Chamber of Shipping, UNCTAD Review of Maritime Transport 2013-2018 © 2020 Deloitte Central Mediterranean S.r.I. Impact Analysis of the Greek Shipping Industry 10 Strategic position in global trade Greece, accounting for only 0.16% of world population and 0.26% of Gross World Product, has a dominating role in the global shipping industry. Greece is the major shipping nation within EU, having 53% of total EU interest capacity. European Union World Greek fleet as % of global fleet per vessel type 17% Tankers Bulkers LNGs Chemicals 47% 53% 83% +22% DWT growth for the Greek owned fleet since 2014 22,5 % of trade to and from the U.S. 20,3 % of trade to and 32% 23% 15% 15% from Europe Source: UNCTADstat 2019, Deloitte Analysis © 2020 Deloitte Central Mediterranean S.r.I. Impact Analysis of the Greek Shipping Industry 11 The impact of Greek Shipping to the Greek economy & society Member firms and DTTL: Insert appropriate copyright Presentation title 12 [To edit, click View > Slide Master > Slide Master] [To edit, click View > Slide Master > Slide Master] Greek Shipping performance during the economic crisis The Greek shipping industry has held well during the recent economic crisis, exceeding the performance of the overall economy both in terms of output and in terms of employment sustained. Greek Shipping Output vs Greek Economy Output Greek Shipping Employment vs Greek Employment (2009 – 2017) (2009 – 2017) Total Output of Greek Economy Shipping Industry Output 111,7 111,1 Greek Employment 108,8 107,7 Shipping Industry Employment 10-year low 100,0 100,8 Freight Prices 102,8 Indexes 102,7 94,4 93,4 100,0 91,9 99,4 98,9 97,4 97,8 87,0 85,5 85,0 80,5 81,4 90,6 75,8 74,3 71,5 2009: 100 2009: 73,7 71,5 100 2009: 69,7 85,3 84,3 83,3 83,8 81,6 82,6 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Eurostat, Deloitte Analysis © 2020 Deloitte Central Mediterranean S.r.I. Impact Analysis of the Greek Shipping Industry 13 Services Balance of Payments Sea transport represents a major component of the national trade balance.
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