This year’s crop of new representatives may need to find General Assembly successes like these to stay popular with constituents back home, but they may also have a distinct advantage: familiarity with legislative Experience may not help politics. Three favored candidates for Congress this fall are currently members of the Virginia General Assembly: • In the 2nd district, Scott Taylor stunned Forbes in the GOP primary Rookie Congressmen and is heavily favored against Democrat Shaun Brown; Taylor is in By Richard Meagher his second term as a Delegate from Virginia Beach. Observers of politics have long noted • Long-time Democratic State Senator Don McEachin is facing a one of the many ironies of the United tougher battle against Henrico Sherriff Mike Wade in the 4th district, State Congress: everyone seems to hate the but is still favored to win. (Larry Sabato has been rating this district institution, and yet it’s nearly impossible for as “safe Democratic” for most of the summer.) a member not to get re-elected. In 2014, as • Tom Garrett, who just started his second term as State Senator, Gallup’s approval rating measure hit an all- is taking on Jane Dittmar in the 5th; the Buckingham County time low of 9%, nearly 95% of incumbents Republican is solidly favored (despite concerns that even “safe” were returned to Congress. GOP districts might be dragged down if Trump loses badly in the Still, if there’s one state that has bucked fall). this incumbency trend, it’s Virginia. Thanks Assuming the favorites win out, that would be three Virginia state to the cumulative effects of a number of representatives now moving up to the big leagues. They would join events, both routine and historical, the Barbara Comstock, who served as a Delegate for five years before Virginia Congressional delegation has been dramatically reshaped moving to Washington. over the past few elections. The most seismic of these events, of State-level politics is different from the national level in many course, was the 2014 election of (my former colleague) Dave Brat in ways, but of course the general principle is the same. Rookies like the Virginia 7th. Brat’s upset of sitting House Minority Leader Eric McEachin and Garrett would have a sharp learning curve in terms Cantor in the 2014 Republican primary turned out to be the first of of institutional knowledge — how Congress itself operates — but many changes to the VA delegation. To wit: presumably they already have a considerable amount of political • The 2014 election also saw two major retirements, with the knowledge. Unlike outsiders or even those who come from other kinds replacement of longtime representatives Jim Moran (8th district) of offices (attorneys general, say, or state cabinet secretaries), these and Frank Wolf (10th) by Don Beyer and Barbara Comstock, rookies would at least have familiarity with legislative policymaking: respectively. how to make deals, work with others, and get bills passed. • Earlier this year, both the 2nd district’s Scott Rigell and 5th’s Robert McEachin particularly has long been a player in state politics, Hurt announced their own retirements. and a position in Congress would make him one of the most powerful • Court-ordered redistricting also led to Randy Forbes’ ill-fated Democrats in the state (if he isn’t one already). He seems most poised attempt to switch districts in 2016, leaving Forbes’ 4th district open to take advantage of his experience. Garrett and Taylor are fresher as well. faces, and landing in Congress would be the latest step in rapid rises to • Rob Wittman may be comfortably ensconced in the 1st district this power propelled in part by their staunch conservatism. The question year, but he hopes to leave that seat for the Governor’s office next for them as rookies will be how much to work with GOP leadership year. or, like their soon-to-be colleague Brat, whether to buck the powers • Tim Kaine’s Vice Presidential nod adds even more uncertainty, as that be. Brat’s maverick style has helped keep him popular in his Bobby Scott (3rd district) is one of the names most mentioned to fill district, but some conservatives (particularly writers at Virginia’s Kaine’s Senate seat should the Democrats win the Presidency this Bearing Drift blog) take him to task for his lack of accomplishment. fall. And who knows which, if any, members of Congress from the Unlike Brat, Garrett and Taylor have been legislators, and might know Republican side might run for that Senate seat in not one, but two a thing or two more than him about dealmaking — while pleasing upcoming elections in 2017 and 2018? constituents at the same time. The end result is a massive amount of turnover in our state’s Comstock might be a better model for rookies than Brat. She House delegation. It would not be out of the question for Virginia to has so far been successful in voting with her constituents, even as it head into 2018 with Republican Bob Goodlatte in the 6th (serving has somewhat reduced her conservative credibility. (Citizens Against since 1993) as the only member of the state’s delegation with more Government Waste rates her as merely “Friendly” as opposed to a than 10 years of Congressional experience. “Taxpayer Hero” like Brat.) And she has managed to land the chair of What does this mean for Virginia? Less experience in office a subcommittee favorable to NoVA’s technology sector. means less experience playing the game of politics in Washington. Still, Washington is a very large and very new pond, with lots of The resulting lack of clout means that Virginians might not get fish swimming in it. No matter what, it will take time for the newbies appointments to key committees. This was Randy Forbes’ argument to make an impression and find their place — and that’s assuming in switching to a new district; Virginians, he claimed, needed the they even stick around for more than a term or two. Legislators are power he had as Chairman of the Seapower and Projection Forces often most vulnerable to challenge after their first victory — just ask Subcommittee to help defend Norfolk and Virginia Beach against Glenn Nye — so there are no guarantees they will even stay in office, cuts in defense spending. (Voters in his new district seemed to think let alone become the next Frank Wolf, who served for 34 years. In that his chairmanship mattered less than his carpetbagging.) fact, the only guarantee is that with so many fresh faces, the Virginia Congress may have eliminated official earmarks — line items delegation will have a long way to go before it moves back up the that direct money to specific projects in legislators’ districts — but pecking order in Congress. that doesn’t mean that “pork barrel” politics have gone away. Savvy Richard Meagher is Associate Professor of Political Science at politicians can still find ways to direct funding towards home or, as Randolph-Macon College. His writing about Virginia state and Forbes claims to have done, at least protect the funding that is still local politics is featured on the Washington Post’s All Opinions are there. It might be unpopular to publicly defend traditional pork barrel Local page, WRIC’s #RVALife site, and his own RVA Politics blog spending in the age of the Tea Party. But even conservative politicians (rvapol.com). have been happy to take credit for highway funding and public works V projects, economic development, and targeted loans and grants.

Virginia Capitol Connections, Fall 2016 4