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Irish Political Studies Publication details, including instructions for authors and subscription information: http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/title~content=t713635614 The Assembly Election 2007 Joanne McEvoy a a Penn Program in Ethnic Conflict, University of Pennsylvania,

Online Publication Date: 01 September 2007 To cite this Article: McEvoy, Joanne (2007) 'The Northern Ireland Assembly Election 2007', Irish Political Studies, 22:3, 367 - 381 To link to this article: DOI: 10.1080/07907180701527292 URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/07907180701527292

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DOI: 10.1080/07907180701527292 ISSN 0790-7184Print/1743-9078 Online/07/030367-15 ©2007PoliticalStudiesAssociation ofIreland 3819Ð33 ChestnutStreet,Philadelphia, PA 19104.Email: [email protected] A under d’Hondt‘oranysimilar mechanism’was‘outofthequestion’(DUP,2005). DUP’s positionatthe2005general electionwasthatpowersharingwithSinnFéin between thesetwohighlyantagonisticpartiesappearedalong wayaway.Indeed,the robbery andtheMcCartneymurderinearly2005,however, meantthatagreement Comprehensive Agreement ments attemptedtosquarethecirclein2004,leading thepublicationoftheir new executivewouldhavetobeagreedbytheDUPandSinn Féin.Thetwogovern- 2004). The2003AssemblyElectionshadchangedthepolitical environmentasany tion ofDUPandSinnFéinasthelargestpartiestheirrespective blocs(Farrington, missioning. TheNovember2003NIAssemblyelectionsfirmly cementedtheposi- UUP andSinnFéininOctober2003overtheissueoftransparency ofIRAdecom- ensuing periodtheBritishandIrishGovernmentsfailedto secureadealbetweenthe time inOctober2002amidallegationsofarepublicanspy-ring atStormont.Inthe Agreement of1998,thedevolvedinstitutionsweresuspendedforfourthandfinal With thestopÐstartexperienceofpowersharingfollowingGoodFriday/ Background Taylor andFrancisFIPS_A_252594.sgm10.1080/07907180701527292IrishPoliticalStudies0790-7184(print)/1743-9078(online)OriginalArticle2007& 223000000September [email protected] JOANNE MCEVOY Vol. 22,No.3,367Ð381,September2007 Irish PoliticalStudies Correspondence Address: Penn PrograminEthnicConflict,UniversityofPennsylvania government inthehistoryofNorthernIrelandwasagreedAprilandtookeffecton8May2007. Almost fiveyearssincethesuspensionofinstitutionsinOctober2002thirdpowersharing landscape inNorthernIreland,leadingtotheformationofafour-partypowersharingexecutive. Féin failedtomakeanimpact.Overall,theelectioncreatedconditionsforanewpolitical Fourth, thepresenceofdissidentsinoppositiontorespectivepositionsDUPandSinn 18 ÐbehindtheDUPandSDLPwonjust16seats,qualifyingforonlyoneexecutiveseat. two ‘moderate’partiesfaredbadly:theUUP’sshareofAssemblyseatsplummetedfrom24to parties oftheirrespectivecommunitieswith36and28Assemblyseatsrespectively.Third,the inter-party talks.Second,theDUPandSinnFéinfurthercementedtheirpositionasleading delivering restoreddevolutionastheculminationoffiveyearsgovernmentinitiativesand low-key inrecentmemory,theelectionwashugelyimportantasitsignalledarealpossibilityof a numberofreasons.Firstly,despitethewidespreadviewthatcampaignwasonemost Election 2007 The NorthernIrelandAssembly BSTRACT The NorthernIrelandAssemblyElectionheldon7March2007wassignificantfor Joanne McEvoy, PennPrograminEthnicConflict,University ofPennsylvania,

proposals inDecember.TheimpactoftheNorthernBank Downloaded By: [McEvoy, Joanne] At: 19:51 13 September 2007

what theelectionwasabout. It wascertainlydifficulttopredictwhatwouldhappen With pollingdaysetfor7March 2007,thereappearedtobesomeuncertaintyas A ‘Lacklustre’Campaign? had madethisthreatmorethan50times( an enhancedrolefortheDublinGovernment.Itwaslaterclaimed bytheDUPthatHain two governmentswouldprogressNorth–Southcooperation undertheir‘PlanB’with would meanthattheAssemblybedissolved,MLAsalaries wouldstop,andthe lution’ threat.AccordingtotheNorthernIrelandOffice, alternativetodevolution of StateforNorthernIrelandPeterHaincontinuedtomake his‘devolutionordisso- secure areturntodevolutionbythedeadlineof26March2007. Indeed,theSecretary republicans, theBritishandIrishGovernmentshopedthat SinnFéin’smovewould from morethan90percentofdelegates.Followingthishistoric changeofdirectionby the PoliceServiceofNorthernIrelandandcriminaljustice systemreceivedsupport the party’ssuccessfulmotiontochangeitspolicyonpolicing anddeclaresupportfor some delaySinnFéinhelditsspecial demonstrate itscommitmenttotheprocessbysupportingpolicingstructures.After the 1998Agreement.WithelectionsetforMarch2007,SinnFéinwasrequiredto decision wasarguablysignificantinitselfasimportantamendmentshadbeenmadeto an Assemblyelectionratherthanareferendumonthe of theStAndrewsprovisions,twogovernmentsannouncedtheirdecisiontohold participate fullyinthedevolvedinstitutions(NorthernIrelandOffice,2006). seven days.AndanamendmenttothePledgeofOfficewouldrequireMinisters for 30MLAstoreferaministerialdecisionbacktheexecutiveconsideritwithin could triggeracross-communityvote.Anamendmenttothe1998Actwouldprovide could notbeachievedbyconsensusandavotewasrequiredanythreeministers be madetointroduceastatutoryMinisterialCode.Wheredecisionoftheexecutive accountability. Forinstance,anamendmenttotheNorthernIrelandAct1998was tion oftheStrandOneinstitutions,particularlywithregardtoissueministerial number ofsignificantamendmentstothe1998Agreementinrelationopera- policing andpowersharing.Itisalsoofnotethatthe Secretary ofStateforNorthernIrelandPeterHainreferredtoasthe‘twinpillars’ and DeputyFirstMinister(Designate)on24November2006.Itfocusedwhat tion ofpowersharingwithnominationsforthepostsFirstMinister(Designate) back withapprovalinNovember.Thedocumentsetoutatimetablefortherestora- published the parties atStAndrewsinScotlandOctober,theBritishandIrishGovernments South andEastÐWestrelations.Despitefailuretosecureagreementamongthe between LondonandDublintoimplementtheBelfastAgreementintermsofNorthÐ provided withthegovernments’threatoftheir‘PlanB’greatercooperation institutions. Anincentiveforthepartiestoagreeondevolvedpowersharingwas 368

Following indicationfromthepartiesthattheywerepreparedtoproceedonbasis The BritishandIrishGovernmentscontinuedtomakeeffortsin2006restorethe

J. McEvoy St AndrewsAgreement

ard fheis with arequirementthatthepartieswouldcome Independent

on policing on 28 January 2007where on policing28 St AndrewsAgreement , 27March2007). St AndrewsAgreement madea . This Downloaded By: [McEvoy, Joanne] At: 19:51 13 September 2007 Ian isreducedtocheeryphotoopportunitieswitholdladies andfunnyprops’( absence ofDUPprotestwasdescribedas‘boring’bythemedia where‘anavuncular environment. These factorsmadeforawhollydifferentandpotentiallymorepositivepolitical further shiftedthatpartytowardstheSDLP’sgroundofconstitutionalnationalism. supportive oftheprocessassetoutin tially movingoutofconflicttowardsstabledemocracy.Withallmainparties that thisfocusonpolicyissuesillustratedhowpoliticsinNorthernIrelandispoten- however, diminishthebroaderimportanceofelection.Indeed,itcouldbeargued ‘sense ofpoliticalquiet’hadtakenhold( ‘one oftheoddestandstrangestelectionsinhistoryNorthernIreland’a was low-keyandsomewhat‘lacklustre’.Forinstance,theelectiondescribedas 2007). Thefocusonsuchissuesledcommentatorstopronouncethatthecampaign Times ‘anti’ positionaspertheDUPin1998andSinnFéin’ssuccessful start ofmore‘normal’politics.Itissignificantthatnonethemajorpartiestookan about votingforcandidateswhowouldformalikelyAssemblyandthepotential which becamethenumberoneissueondoorsteps( the electoratewasconcernedfirstandforemostwithprospectofwatercharges, tax, health,educationandthecostofhousing.Themediarepeatedlyreportedthat the campaignpartiesfocusedonpolicyissuessuchaswaterrates,corporation Friday/Belfast AgreementorNorthernIreland’sconstitutionalstatus.Throughout more normal ‘breadandbutter’issuesratherthancommunalpositionsontheGood to thefailureofSinnFéin‘deliver’onpolicing. socially’ (SinnFéin,2007).FortheDUP,anydelaytopowersharingwouldbedue ‘increasing all-Irelandcooperationandplanningpolitically,economically cle toenddirectruleandensurefulldeliveryoftheGoodFridayAgreement, Féin calledontheDUPtocommitpowersharingandsawelectionasvehi- before thedeadlineof26Marchwasnotanswereddefinitivelybyparties.Sinn after theelectionandburningquestionwhetheritwouldleadtopowersharing entering apowersharinggovernment withSinnFéinon26March.Instead,theDUP DUP continuedtorebuffthe issueofwhetherthepartywouldsignalitsintenton over 60andtheretentionofacademic selection.Atthelaunchofmanifesto committed topoliciessuchas theextensionoffreepublictransporttoallpeople presented asapreconditionfor devolution(DUP,2007).Inaddition,themanifesto tion toministerialaccountability.Securingasubstantialfinancial packagewasalso DUP’s claimstosecuringamendmentsthe1998Agreement, particularlyinrela- criminal activityandtheremovalofterroriststructures’. The manifestosetoutthe for thePSNI,Courtsandruleoflaw,acomplete endtoparamilitaryand republican movement,testedandprovedoveracredibleperiod, intermsofsupport sharing withSinnFéinwouldonlybepossible‘whenthere hasbeendeliverybythe The DUPcampaignwascertainlymoremeasuredthanprevious elections.The An absenceofinter-partyhostilityandafocusonsuchpolicyissuesdoesnot, An interestingaspectoftheelectioncampaignwasgreaterdiscussionon

, 21February2007).TheDUPmanifesto,

The NorthernIrelandAssemblyElection2007 Irish News St AndrewsAgreement Getting itRight , 6March2007). Irish News , statedthatpower

ard fheis the electionwas , 23February

motion Irish 369 Downloaded By: [McEvoy, Joanne] At: 19:51 13 September 2007 should beaboutNorthernIreland movingforward,notwhowouldbethebiggest the SDLP’smanifesto, elderly; andaRoyalCommission tostrengthentheUnion(UUP,2007).Similarly, Environmental ProtectionAgency; theintroductionoffreepersonalcarefor guaranteed 20hoursaweekpre-school educationforallchildren;thecreationofan everyone inNorthernIreland.Amongitsothercommitments, theUUPproposeda notable commitmentinthemanifestowastointroducefree NHSprescriptionsfor as the onlypartypreparedtocommittakingseatsinanewexecutive.Themost away fromthetribal,divisivepoliticsofpast’.TheUUP alsopositioneditself which would,intime,‘allowpartiestoformgenuinepolitical coalitionsandmove manifesto arguedthatitwasnowtimefor‘normalpolitics’ inNorthernIreland the DublinGovernmentandbecomeapotentialcoalitionpartner. ultimately hopedtowinasufficientnumberofTDsinfluence thecompositionof ( 2007, GerryAdamsmadeclearhisparty’selectoralambitions bothNorthandSouth affairs ofNorthernIreland.LookingtotheIrishgeneralelectionlatersetfor24May should movetoimplementtheir‘PlanB’withanenhancedroleforDublininthe was notpreparedtoworktheinstitutionsthenBritishandIrishGovernments party’s preferencefordevolvedpowersharingas‘PlanA’butsuggestedthatifDUP Irish Language(SinnFéin,2007).Intherun-uptoelectiondaySinnFéinstressed programme, theintroductionofanIrishLanguageActandaCommissionerfor an endtoacademicselection,investmentinacomprehensivesocialhousing powers fortheAssembly;areviewofratessystem,oppositiontowatercharges, on policingandjusticebyMay2008.Othercommitmentsincludedtaxvarying dividend fromtheBritishGovernmentovertenyears;andensuretransferofpowers cooperation; prepareforareferendumonIrishunity;campaign£10bnpeace over aweekbeforepollingday.Thepartypledgedtoexpandareasofall-Ireland 29 March2007). the dealtogointogovernmentwithSinnFéinwas‘premature’( also resignedandevenUpperBannMPDavidSimpsonexpressedsomeanxietythat Allister’s departurefromthepartysomecouncillorsinBallymenaandBanbridge ence oftheIRAArmyCouncil( had beencloudedbythe‘lureofoffice’andprotestedagainstcontinuedexist- evidenced bytheresignationofJimAllisterMEPwhosaidparty’sjudgement is nodoubt,however,thattheDUP’spolicywastoomuchforsomepartymembers, dismissed bytheDUPas‘wildspeculation’( of partydisciplinecandidateswouldincurafineasmuch£20,000,figure resignation letterelectioncandidateshadtosign.Reportssuggestedthatforabreach ranks. Accordingtomediaarticlestherewasinternaldissensionoveracontractand Times claimed thatitwasuptorepublicanswhetherdevolutionwouldberestored( 370 Irish Times The UUPwasthefirstpartytolaunchitselectionmanifesto, Sinn Féinlauncheditselectionmanifesto, During thecampaignperiodtherewererumoursofapotential‘split’inDUP , 22February2007). J. McEvoy , 1March2007).Thus,SinnFéinwasgearingupfortwo elections and

Let’s DeliverRealProgress Belfast Telegraph News Letter Delivering forIreland’sFuture , 27March2007).Following , stressedthattheelection , 6February2007).There For AllofUs Belfast Telegraph . The , just Irish , Downloaded By: [McEvoy, Joanne] At: 19:51 13 September 2007 Republican SinnFéinwho fielded candidatesinsixconstituencies.Theparty’s ings. Nevertheless,a‘dissident’ threatcamefromanumberofindependentsand shift with the special policy onpolicing.Itcanbe argued thatthepartysuccessfullymanagedthispolicy size oftheUnionistmajorityinAssembly’(DUP,2007). Unionist candidatesendangeramajorityontheExecutive, regardlessofthe this perceivedthreattheDUPmanifestostatedthat‘Votes for independentsorfringe executive includingrepublicans( He wantedtooffervoters‘ananti-agreementchoice’andprevent theformationofan McCartney pledgedthathewouldrepresentmorethanone constituencyifelected. power withSinnFéinunderd’Hondt( that Paisleyhadgonebackonthe2005manifesto partywouldnotshare the DUPandjoinedUKUPasanAssemblycandidate in NorthAntrimashefelt ran insevenotherconstituencies.Forinstance,LimavadyCouncillor LyleCubittleft Antrim, WestTyroneandFermanaghSouthTyrone. OtherUKUPcandidates defending hisseatinNorthDownandcontestingBelfast,LaganValley,South Robert McCartneyputhisnameforwardforcandidatureinsixconstituencies, dates opposedtothepositionsofDUPandSinnFéinrespectively.TheUKUP’s different frompreviouspollsduetothepresenceofanumber‘dissident’candi- not preparedtotalkoneanother’( randum, withcivilservantsactingasmessengersbetweenvariousministerswhoare their positionasthetwolargestparties,Alliancewarnedof‘governmentbymemo- (Alliance, 2007).WithregardtothepotentialofSinnFéinandDUPcementing sions ‘aretantamounttothedivisionofpowerratherthansharingpower’ appointment ofFirstMinisterandDeputyMinister,claimingthatsomeprovi- Agreement St Andrews charges linkedtoabilitypayandusage.Alliancealsosetoutitscritiqueofthe Protection Agency;thepromotionofanall-islandelectricitymarket;andwater care fortheelderlyinresidentialandnursinghomes;creationofanEnvironmental in integratedschoolingby2010;theabolitionofstudenttuitionfees;freepersonal proposed theintroductionoftaxvaryingpowers;atarget10percentchildren system basedonaweightedmajority.Intermsofpolicycommitmentstheparty the Assemblyaswellremovalofcommunitydesignationsforavoting coalition formedbyinter-partynegotiationandapprovedaweightedmajorityin (SDLP, 2007). lum; thereleaseofmorelandforsocialhousing;andareferendumonIrishunity comprehensive system;thescrappingofAlevelsforabroadersixthformcurricu- an all-Irelandeconomicpolicyunit;endtoacademicselectioninfavourofa tor onwaterrates;anall-IrelandPublicSafetybody;corporationtax; ments, including:protectionofratepayers’interestsintheformarevenueregula- party ( There wasalsoanotinconsiderable oppositiontoSinnFéinandtheparty’s In additiontotheenhancedfocusonpolicyissues,electioncampaignwas The AlliancePartyuseditsmanifesto, Irish News , 27February2007).Themanifestomadeanumberofcommit- ard fheis , particularlyinrelationtotheremovalofavoteon

on theissueanddozensofpublic andprivatemeet-

The NorthernIrelandAssemblyElection2007

Belfast Telegraph

Irish Times Alliance Works Belfast Telegraph , 28February2007). , 1March2007).Inresponseto , tocontinuearguefora , 13February2007). 371 Downloaded By: [McEvoy, Joanne] At: 19:51 13 September 2007 it was nowamatterofagreeingthescheduledevolution subjecttoSinnFéin between theDUPandUUP astheformerwasnowsupportingpowersharing; Assembly election2007changed thedynamicsofintra-unionistcompetition under thed’Hondtprocedure. Itcanbeargued,however,thattheNorthernIreland highest numberofvotesand seatstosecureasmanyministerialpossible intent onwipingouttheoppositionwithintheirrespective blocsastheyneededthe Minister’ (DUP,2007). winning moreseatsthanSinnFeintostopthembeingnominated forthepostofFirst manifesto alsostatedthattheDUPisonlyunionistparty ‘realisticallycapableif McGuinness tobecomeFirstMinister( electorate thatvotesforpartiesotherthantheDUPwould riskallowingMartin prevent SinnFéingains.Forinstance,IanPaisleygave a warningtotheunionist hold amajorityontheexecutive.Therewasclearfocus on thepartofDUPto DUP andSinnFéinasahighernumberofseatswoulddetermine whichblocwould competition didnotoccur.Therewas,ofcourse,vigorous competitionbetweenthe set outinthe was somewhatdifferentasallofthemainpartiesbroadlysupportedprocess This timeround,however,thecompetitionbothwithinandbetweentwoblocs Agreement DUPvowingtodestroyboththepro-AgreementUUPandSinnFéin. Agreement. Thiswasparticularlythecasewithinunionistcampwithanti- 2003 therewasaveryevidentbattlebetweenthepartiesonGoodFriday/Belfast tion intherun-uptoelection.InpreviousAssemblyelectionsof1998and pendent inNorthBelfast. son sparkedacontroversialPoliceOmbudsmanreportoncollusion,ranasaninde- newspaper. RaymondMcCordSnr,whosecampaignconcerningthemurderofhis previously lefttheDUPafterallegationsconcerninghisprivatelifeinaSunday Other notableindependentsincludedPaulBerryinNewryandArmaghwhohad contested theelectionincludingsixcandidatesfromRepublicanSinnFéin. toral termsbyrepublican‘dissidents’didnottranspire.Intotal26independents Antrim. Asshownintheresultssectionbelow,potentialthreatposedelec- INLA leaderDominicMcGlincheyranasanindependentcandidateinNorth as anindependentinNewryandArmagh.PaulMcGlinchey,brotherofformer ran inFermanaghSouthTyroneandDavidHylandresignedfromtheparty from formersupportersandindependentrepublicans.Forinstance,GerryMcGeogh struggled, sufferedanddiedoverthecenturies.’SinnFéinalsofacedchallenges conflict withthehighidealsforwhichsomanymenandwomenofallcreedshave tion ofindependencethefirst(all-Ireland)Dáil.Theirrecentdecisionsalso in directconflictwiththe1916proclamationofRepublicanddeclara- party leaderRuairíÓBrádaighargued:‘WhattheProvisionalleadershipisdoing under thebanner‘SmashStormont’.Citedin tered asapoliticalparty.RepublicanSinnFéinlaunchedanabstentionistcampaign candidates weretreatedasindependentssinceRepublicanSinnFéinwasnotregis- 372 In relationtointra-communalcompetition,boththeDUP andSinnFéinwere It isimportanttoconsidertheextentofinter-andintra-communalpartycompeti- J. McEvoy St AndrewsAgreement

. Thisisnottoargue,however,thatinter-bloc

Irish Times

Irish Times , 22February2007).Theparty’s

(14 February2007), Downloaded By: [McEvoy, Joanne] At: 19:51 13 September 2007 Féin wouldmakegains( water charges. consensus wasformedoncertainpolicies,particularlyinrelationtotheissueof when theconditionswereright.Theelectionwasalsointerestinginthatanall-party with SinnFéin.TheDUPwasadamant,however,thatthiswouldhappenonly however, wereofasimilarpositioninrelationtotheacceptancepowersharing the UlsterUnionistscalledforafocusonmore‘normal’politics.Bothparties, unionists thantheUUPhaddoneunderDavidTrimbleandnowSirRegEmpey, DUP campaignsoughttomaintainthatthepartyhadsecuredabetterdealfor selection; areferendumonIrishunity;andaccountabilitypolicing.Whilethe Sinn Féinmanifestoesmadesimilarcommitmentsinrelationtoendingacademic number ofyears(seeMitchell more ontothe‘moderate’ground,aprocesswhichhadbeentakingplacefor ard fheis between theSDLPandSinnFéinhadchangedinwakeoflatter’ssuccessful ‘delivery’ onpolicing.Intermsofintra-nationalistcompetition,thebattleground count with14percentofthe vote,aconsiderablefallfromhis21percentofthe 11 percentinEastBelfastand partyleaderSirRegEmpeywasreturnedonthethird share plummetfrom24to18 – 18seatsbehindtheDUP.TheUUP’svotewasdown Unionist Partywasarguablythe biggestloseroftheelectionaspartysawitsseat party’s righttothepostofDeputy FirstMinisterandthreeministries.TheUlster Féin alsoincreaseditsshareofthevoteandnumberseats, therebyconfirmingthe Assembly seats,guaranteeingthepostofFirstMinister and fourministries.Sinn 28 seats respectively.TheDUPincreaseditsshareofthevoteandnumber It wasahugelysuccessfulelectionfortheDUPandSinn Féinwhowon36and further gainswithasqueezeonthe‘moderate’parties oftheUUPandSDLP. The mainstoryoftheelectionresultswasthatDUP and SinnFéinhadmade The WinnersandLosers management ( gle tokeepthePUPseatasDUPcouldtake seatwithstrongervote just oneofhissixconstituencies,retainingseatinNorthDown( tion totheDUPfromUKUP,itwaspredictedthatBobMcCartneywouldwinin to three( badly, withonenewspaperforecastingthattheparty’sseatsharewouldfallfromsix ( 23 seatsfortheUUP,25SinnFéin,18SDLPandoneseatUKUP the UlsterUnionistswouldfaresobadly;IrishTimespredictedbetween20and Antrim ( chance tomakegainsintargetconstituenciessuchasLaganValleyandSouth and other‘republicanpuristcandidates’itwaspredictedthatthepartystillhad March 2007).InrelationtotheoppositionSinnFéinfromRepublican Irish Times In therun-uptoelectionmediamadepredictionsthatDUPandSinn Irish Times

Irish Times motion onpolicing.Thus,boththeDUPandSinnFéinhadshiftedeven , 6March2007).TherewasalsoapredictionthatAlliancewouldfare Irish News , 12February2007).Interestingly,themediadidnotpredictthat , 6March2007).ItwasalsofeltthatDawnPurviswouldstrug- , 19February2007). Belfast Telegraph et al. The NorthernIrelandAssemblyElection2007 , 2001).Forinstance,therespectiveSDLPand

, 1March2007).Intermsoftheopposi-

Irish Times 373 , 6 Downloaded By: [McEvoy, Joanne] At: 19:51 13 September 2007 nationalist constituenciesinthe westthaninunionistconstituenciestheeast.For Assembly election(Farrington, 2004),turnoutforthiselectionwashigherin eligible electorate(Electoral Office forNorthernIreland,2007).Asperthe2003 Brady onthefourth. Conor MurphyandCathalBoylangettingelectedonthe firstcountandMickey however, anddidnothavemuchimpactontheSinnFéin whichwonthreeseats– polled ahealthy2,188firstpreferencevotes.Hefailedto beelectedontransfers, who hadresignedfromthepartyandranasanindependent candidateinopposition, who toppedthepoll.InNewryandArmaghsittingSinn Féin MLADavyHyland, Féin’s DaithíMcKay,whocameinonthefirstcountwith DUPleaderIanPaisley policy onpolicing,obtainedonly383firstpreferencevotes incontrasttoSinn first preferencevotesandinNorthAntrimPaulMcGlinchey, opposedtoSinnFéin’s successes. Forinstance,inMid-UlstertheRepublicanSinn Féincandidategot437 trous electoralperformanceMcCartneyoptedtoleavepolitics. community foradealtobestruckanddevolutionreturn.Inthewakeofhisdisas- have alienatedvotersandhefailedtoacknowledgethesupportofunionist It couldbearguedthatMcCartney’sstrategyofstandinginsixconstituenciesmay the predictionthathewouldprobablymakeitthrough( all andMcCartneypolled1,806firstpreferencevotesinNorthDowncontrastto his ownAssemblyseat.TheUKUPmanagedtoattractjustover10,000votersover- North Down.Hepolledbadlyinallofthesixconstituencieshecontestedandlost tion wasamassivedefeatfortheUKUP’sRobertMcCartney,formerMP and republican‘dissidents’totakesupportfromtheirerstwhilecolleagues.Theelec- East Belfast. ment asPurvisdefiedpredictionsandactuallyincreasedthePUPshareofvotein held bytherecentlydeceasedDavidErvine.Thiswasaparticularlygoodachieve- Progressive UnionistParty,DawnPurvis,whoretainedtheparty’sseatpreviously Down. Theelectionresultwasanimportantachievementforthenewleaderof Brian Wilsonreceiving2,839firstpreferencevotesandthefifthseatinNorth produced abreakthroughfortheGreenPartywhowontheirfirstStormontseat,with Ireland’s growingethniccommunities.Theelectionwasalsonotableinthatit lature whowillbeabletobringtheAssemblyperspectiveofNorthern Anna LoinSouthBelfast,thefirstChinesepersontobeelectedaEuropeanlegis- and up6.7percentinSouthBelfast.Thepartyalsocelebratedthenotablesuccessof deputy leaderPeterRobinson.TheAlliancevotewasup9.9percentinEastBelfast erence votesinEastBelfast,electedonthefirstcountandjust50behindDUP were solidlyreturnedanditwasnotablethatNaomiLongreceived5,585firstpref- increased shareofthevote.Thankstosuccessfultargetingseats,allsevenMLAs share fellfrom18to16andonlyoneministry. vote inthe2003Assemblyelection.TheSDLPwasalsodisappointedasitsseat 374 The overallturnoutwas62.87 percent:696,538votespolledoutofa1,107,904 Republican dissidentsalsofaredbadlyandfailedtomake inroadsintoSinnFéin The electionresultsareinterestinginthattheypointtothefailureofbothunionist It wasagoodelectionfortheAlliancePartywhowonanextraseatand J. McEvoy

Irish Times

, 6March2007). Downloaded By: [McEvoy, Joanne] At: 19:51 13 September 2007 tes38037.5 3.7 17.0 22.7 3 25.6 23.5 6 18 27 30 8.0 24 5.2 15.2 14.9 30.1 26.2 3 7 16 18 Source 36 28 Others Alliance SDLP UUP Sinn Féin DUP at Seats2007 Party ment inWestTyrone. much lesssuccessfulatvote management. TheSDLPdisplayedpoorvotemanage- DUP candidatesWallaceBrowne andRobinNewton. McIlveen). InEastBelfastPeterRobinson’svoteensured theelectionoffellow of Iris Robinsonandthree others (JimShannon,SimonHamiltonandMichelle The DUPdisplayedexcellentvotemanagementinStrangford withtheelection tion ofMitchelMcLaughlin,whotoppedthepollwith6,313 firstpreferencevotes. breakthrough inSouthAntrim,atraditionallyunionistconstituency, withtheselec- count (MartinMcGuinness,FrancieMolloyandMichelle O’Neill). Thepartyhada Féin inMid-Ulster,wheretheparty’sthreecandidateswere allelectedonthefirst decline of7percent.Excellentvotemanagementwasalso demonstratedbySinn Here SinnFéinincreaseditsshareofthevoteby5percent comparedtotheSDLP’s gain wasmadebytakingDianeDodds’seatdespitetheincrease intheDUPvote. was thusthefirstpartytohavefivecandidateselectedin sameconstituency.The four othercandidatestocomeinjustunderthequotaonfirstcount.SinnFéin Adams’ personalvotewasmanageddowntojustover6,000andthisallowedthe Féin. InWestBelfastthepartybalancedfivecandidatesandallwereelected. The mostsuccessfulandsophisticatedvotemanagementwasdemonstratedbySinn ing tolookatwhetherthepartiesadoptedsuccessfulvotemanagementstrategies. compared toDUPleaderPeterRobinson’s19percent. elected inthefirstcountEastBelfast,receiving18.8percentofvote also electedonthefirstcountinthatconstituency.NaomiLong(Alliance)was since herdefectionfromtheUUPtoDUP.SinnFéin’sMichelleGildernewwas topped thepollinFermanaghandSouthTyronewithanincreaseofmorethan2,000 Assembly and18women.OfnoteistheperformanceofArleneFoster(DUP),who Antrim. The108electedcandidatesincluded30MLAswhowerenewtothe Tyrone comparedto53.77percentinNorthDownand53.46East instance, turnoutwas73.06percentinMid-Ulsterand71.68West would haveexpectedtoretain itsoneseat.Thiswasparticularlydisappointingfor In contrasttothevictoriesof SinnFéinandtheDUP,SDLPUUPwere As thiswasthethirdAssemblyelectionsince1998Agreement,itisinterest- T : http://www.ark.ac.uk/elections. able 1. Summary NorthernIreland Assembly electionresults:2007and2003 1 Thepartymadeanerrorinfielding threecandidateswhereit The NorthernIrelandAssemblyElection2007 Vote share 07()Seats2003 2007 (%)

Vote share 2003 (%) 375 Downloaded By: [McEvoy, Joanne] At: 19:51 13 September 2007 between theDUPandSinnFéin assetoutinajointstatement: share powerfrom26March. The twogovernmentscontinuedtopushforagreement Following theelectionparties hadjusttwoweekstoagreewhethertheywould Towards aPowerSharingDeal SDLP totalof44seats. combined DUP/UUPunionisttotalof54seatscompared to acombinedSinnFéin/ an extraministerialseatattheUUP’sexpense.Thenew Assemblywouldhavea seats, underthed’Hondtsystemofportfolioallocation SDLP wouldhavegained one SDLP.OfnoteisthathadtheUUPandSDLPreturned thesamenumberof member coalitionwouldhavefourDUPministers,three Sinn Féin,twoUUPand unionist majority:7:5includingFirstMinisterandDeputy FirstMinister.Theten- tigate theissue(WilfordandWilson,2006:43). favour oftheAdditionalMemberSystemandanindependent commissiontoinves- more generally,itisworthhighlightingthatsuggestionshavebeenadvancedin consider thedebatesonelectoralsystemsforNorthernIrelandanddividedsocieties for NorthernIreland.Althoughitiscertainlybeyondthescopeofthisreportto whether ProportionalRepresentation(STV)isthemostappropriateelectoralsystem (see Elliott,2003).Indeed,thelackofcross-communaltransfersraisesquestion The levelofcross-communaltransfersinthe2003Assemblyelectionwasalsolow Northern IrelandWomen’sCoalitionratherthanacrossblocs(seeSinnott,1998). Agreement communalpartiestobi-communalsuchasAllianceandthe 1998 largelytookplacewithinthenationalistandunionistblocsfrompro- Northern Ireland’selectoralsystem’.Itappears,however,thatthevotetransfersin representation ofmoderatesentimentintheAssemblywasgreatlyassistedby election, Reilly(2001:137)notedthatstudies‘foundstrikingevidencethe recurring themeforNorthernIreland’sAssemblyelections.Inrelationtothe1998 nal divide.ThelackofnationalistÐunionistandunionistÐnationalisttransfersisa Thus, partiesmostlytransferredamongsteachotherratherthanacrossthecommu- first preferencevotesbenefitedfromtransfersofpartycolleaguesalreadyelected. transferable vote(STV).AsinpreviousAssemblyelections,candidateswithfewer vote transfersundertheelectoralsystemofproportionalrepresentation ‘woeful, toputitmildly’( UUP’s onlyMPLadySylviaHermonsaidherparty’svotemanagementhadbeen increase intheAlliancevoteby6.7percent.SpeakingatNorthDowncount, rather thantwoatmost.Theparty’svotesharefellby8.7percentcomparedtoan lar, theUlsterUnionistsmadeamistakeinrunningthreecandidatesSouthBelfast three toone.PoorvotemanagementwasalsodemonstratedbytheUUP.Inparticu- performance inthisconstituencySinnFéinwonthreeseats,outpollingtheSDLP would havebeenguaranteedasecondministerialseat.IncontrasttotheSDLP’s the SDLPaswinningonemoreAssemblyseatwouldhavemeantthatparty 376 The electionresultsmeantthatanewpowersharingexecutive wouldhavea The parties’focusonvotemanagementstrategieshadanimportantimpactthe J. McEvoy BBC NewsOnline , 12March2007).

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single Downloaded By: [McEvoy, Joanne] At: 19:51 13 September 2007 1998 whenexecutiveformation wasdelayedforalmost18monthsaftertheAssembly on aProgrammeforGovernment. Thisisnotablydifferenttotheexperiencepost- tive’ d’Hondttomatchdepartments withministers,departmentalbriefingsandwork tory worktobecarriedoutin advanceofthetransferpowersincludedan‘indica- share powerfrom8May,the parties begantoprepareforgovernment.Thisprepara- with republicans.Itisalsosignificantthatinthewakeof DUP–SinnFéindealto ment asthedealreflectedthatDUPhadnowcommitted itselftopowersharing part, itislikelythatAdamsandhiscolleagueswerehappy toagreethepostpone- were preparedforthepartytogointogovernmentwithSinn Féin.ForSinnFéin’s the potentialofwhatcannowbeachieved’( hurt andtragedy…Thediscussionsagreementbetween ourtwopartiesshows between thepeopleofthisislandhavebeenmarredbycenturies ofdiscord,conflict, better andmorestablefuture.’Inreply,Adamsaccepted that‘therelationships fied loathingofthehorrorsandtragediespasttobecome abarriertocreating Northern Ireland’speaceprocess.Paisleycommented:‘We mustnotallowourjusti- Parliament Buildings,Stormontwasbroadcastaroundtheworldasamilestonein The quiteremarkableimageofIanPaisleyandGerryAdamssittingsidebyin DUP andSinnFéinthatdevolutionwouldbepostponedforsixweeksuntil8May. institutions. Whattranspired,however,wasanextraordinaryagreementbetweenthe Hain’s deadline. dar-led’, withscepticismmountingthatagreementcouldbesecuredinadvanceof republicans. TheDUPcontinuedtostressthatitwas‘condition-led’andnot‘calen- Gildernew thatshewouldnotreporttothepoliceknowledgeofarmeddissident the PSNI. Some controversyhadarisenovercommentsbySinnFéinMPMichelle on securing astrongcommitmentfromSinnFéinthatrepublicanswouldsupport DUP thefinancialpackageappeareda‘dealbreaker’.Thewasalsointent package inmeetingswithTonyBlairandtheChancellorGordonBrown.For government. Thepartiesfocusedonsecuringasufficientlysubstantialfinancial dissolution ifpartiesfailedtoagree,notablynotarequirementforfunctioning a dealseemedincreasinglypossible,theSecretaryofStatehadchangedhisthreatto Letter down andwepackupNorthernIrelandpolitics,maybeforyearstocome’( on 26Marchorit’sdissolutionandthepoliticiansstopgettingpaid,Stormontcloses set outtheoptionsthus:‘Itiseitherafunctioningexecutivewithpowersdevolved dissolution’ andtheBritishGovernmentwouldnotseektoextenddeadline.He The DUPclearlyrequiredmoretimetoensurethatthevast majorityofmembers Deadline day,26March2007,passedwithouttherestorationofdevolved For SecretaryofStatePeterHain,thechoiceforpartieswas‘devolutionor ( tions representsanopportunityofhistoricproportions.Itmustnotbemissed. together throughthedevolvedinstitutions.Restorationofinstitu- disappointment, theywantNorthernIrelandtomoveonbuildabetterfuture The messageoftheelectorateisclear:aftersomanyyearsfrustrationand News Letter , 10March2007).Bytheendofmonth,however,incircumstanceswhere , 10March2007) The NorthernIrelandAssemblyElection2007 Guardian , 27March2007).

News 377 Downloaded By: [McEvoy, Joanne] At: 19:51 13 September 2007 .DPEvrnetArleneFoster SirRegEmpey EdwinPoots MargaretRitchie ConorMurphy CaitrionaRuane EmploymentandLearning MichelleGildernew Culture,ArtsandLeisure Minister PeterRobinson Environment NigelDodds UUP AgricultureandRuralDevelopment DUP Note McGimpsey Michael SinnFéin SocialDevelopment RegionalDevelopment 10. DUP Health,SocialServicesandPublicSafety 9. SinnFéin Enterprise,TradeandInvestment 8. SDLP 7. UUP FinanceandPersonnel Education 6. DUP 5. SinnFéin 4. DUP Portfolio 3. 2. 1. Party Round the followingdays. matching ofportfoliostoministers wasannouncedseparatelybythepartiesovercourseof 2 April 2007.Atthemeeting thepartieschosetheirpreferredportfoliosinsequence.The does notrequireinter-partybargainingoncoalition‘payouts’intermsofwhogets parties ministerialseatsinproportiontotheshareofAssembly.D’Hondt than aprocessofinter-partybargainingonportfoliosandpolicy,d’Hondtguarantees certainly notakintowhattakesplaceinmore‘normal’coalitiondemocracies.Rather Minister. parties tobecomejuniorministersintheOfficeofFirstMinisterandDeputy Paisley Jnr(DUP)andGerryKelly(SinnFéin)werenominatedbytheirrespective folio ( for EmploymentandLearningMichaelMcGimpseywouldtaketheHealthport- Empey shouldfocusonpartymatters,confirmedhewouldbecomeMinister over whowouldbetheparty’sministers.DespiteAlanMcFarland’sviewthat Empey’s preferences,thereweresomeapparentlyheatedexchangeswithintheUUP further surprisecamewiththeUUP’sconfirmationofministers.FollowingSirReg Investment whichwaschosenonthefirstroundinNovember1999byUUP.A was somespeculation,however,thatSinnFéinwouldchooseEnterprise,Tradeand during the1999Ð2002administrationwithMartinMcGuinnessasminister.There first pickonthesecondround.Thepartyhad,ofcourse,Educationportfolio parties’ portfoliopreferences,itisinterestingthatSinnFéinchoseEducationasits with noneofthedramaandwalk-outsasseeninNovember1999.Inrelationto rather thanduringasittingoftheAssembly.Itwasthusanentirelydifferentevent place on2December. ally triggeredon29November1999andthetransferofpowerfromWestminstertook election inJune1998overtheissueofIRAdecommissioning.D’Hondtwaseventu- 378 It isworthhighlightingthatexecutiveformationunderthed’Hondtprocedure The ‘indicative’d’Hondtwasinterestinginthatittookplacebehindcloseddoors : The‘indicative’d’Hondtfor the allocationofministerialportfoliostookplaceon Irish Times J. McEvoy , 13April2007).Inadditiontotheministersnominatedabove,Ian T able 2. Allocation ofportfoliosunderd’Hondt

Downloaded By: [McEvoy, Joanne] At: 19:51 13 September 2007 administration, ‘Thecommitteesoftheassemblywereprime committee system.AsWilfordandWilson(2006:30)commentonthe1999Ð2002 One mechanismtoimprovetheaccountabilityofexecutivecouldbefoundin competition, ortheturnoverofpoliticalelites,shiftssupportbetweenparties.’ legislature O’Leary(2005:11)writes,‘Nothingprecludesintra-blocdemocratic parties. Inrelationtotheviewthatconsociationalismpreventsanoppositionin tion, whenallbar16candidateselectedin1998belongedtothefourgovernment The oppositionthistimeroundhasevenfewerMLAsthanthepreviousadministra- extent those10MLAscanformaneffectiveoppositiontothefour-partycoalition. just 10MLAsfromnon-governingparties.Itisquestionable,therefore,towhat in thelegislature.Inthisinstance,98MLAsaremembersofgoverningpartieswith the maincritiquesofconsociationaltheoryisthatitleavesaninadequateopposition 1977: 25)wherebysociety’smainsegmentsarerepresentedingovernment.Oneof office on8May2007correspondstoaconsociational‘grandcoalition’(Lijphart, context ofpreparatoryworkfordevolution. mental briefingsbeforedevolutionandthepotentialforinter-partycooperationin however, thattheeffectof‘indicative’d’Hondtallowedforaperioddepart- therefore nointer-partynegotiationonportfoliosorministers.Itimportanttonote, their ownannouncementsonwhichministerswouldgetportfolios.Therewas ministers todepartments.Overthecourseoffollowingdayspartiesthenmade what. Indeed,inthisinstancethepartieschosetheirportfolioswithoutmatching battle aday’( both SinnFéinPresidentGerry AdamsandDUPdeputyleaderPeterRobinson,be‘a pect ofmutualandrespectful co-operation’( that hehoped‘oldsuspicionsanddiscordscanbeburied foreverunderthepros- in theNorthernIrelandpeaceprocess,DrPaisleyasFirst Minister (Designate)said Ian PaisleyandBertieAherninDublin.Inwhatappeared as animportantmilestone Manuel Barrosoon1May.Ofadditionalnoteistheremarkable meetingbetween cut incorporationtax;andthemeetingwithEuropeanCommission PresidentJosé on theeconomicpackagefromBritishGovernment;a joint positionregardinga must vacateStormontCastletomakewayforthenewadministration; theconsensus were evidentwiththejointDUP–SinnFéinletterthatPeter Hainandhisofficials whether theDUPandSinnFéinwouldworktogether.Some signsofcooperation the newadministrationfrom8Maywouldbepronetogridlock andstalemateor committees tocheckthedominanceofexecutive. lenge forAlliance,asthelargestpartyinoppositionwithsevenMLAs,and creatures’ (WilfordandWilson,2006:30).Certainly,itwillbeaconsiderablechal- from governingpartiesand‘tendtobehaveaspartyanimalsratherthancommittee opposition role,however,islimitedastheyarealmostwhollymadeupofmembers the executivetoaccount.’Thepotentialofcommitteestakeonmorean ‘Inside Politics’programme on 31March2007,Robinsonsaidthatpowersharing As percoalitionformationon29November1999,thenewexecutivewhichtook There wassomespeculationwhether thenewadministrationwould,astermedby In advanceofthetransferpowertherewasalreadysome discussiononwhether BBC NewsOnline The NorthernIrelandAssemblyElection2007 , 3March2007).Speakingon , 5April2007). BBC RadioUlster locus

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Downloaded By: [McEvoy, Joanne] At: 19:51 13 September 2007 References 380 executive wouldbesubjecttoinstitutionalreformsunderthe sports stadiumandagreementonaProgrammeforGovernment. Significantly,the water charges,post-primaryeducationtransferarrangements, locationofthenew able challengesawaitedthenewexecutive,manyofthemcontroversial,including in thehistoryofNorthernIrelandtookeffecton8May2007.Anumberconsider- the suspensionofinstitutionsinOctober2002thirdpowersharinggovernment triggering aninternaldebatewithintheUUPonitsstrategy.Almostfiveyearssince The electionmeantafurthersqueezeonthe‘moderate’partiesofSDLPandUUP, parties totaketheirrespectivestepstowardsformingapowersharinggovernment. Northern Ireland.ItwasahugesuccessfortheDUPandSinnFéinenabledboth The Assemblyelectionheldon7March2007transformedthepoliticallandscapein Conclusions Note mean forconsociationalpowersharing. ments mayhaveontheworkingofdevolvedinstitutions andwhattheymight of October2006.Itwillbeimportanttodeterminewhatimpact, ifany,theseamend- up ofajointgovernmentbythesouthIreland?’( my peopleifIhadallowedthiscountrytohavetheuniondestroyedandsetting do thisthenitwasgoingtobecurtainsforourcountry…HowwouldIhavefaced agreeing topowersharingwithSinnFéin,Paisleysaid,‘Weweretoldthatifwedidn’t to implementtheBritishandIrishGovernments’‘PlanB’.Inhisfirstinterviewsince government withSinnFéinbysomeelementsatWestminsterwhowerethreatening position onpowersharing,however,wasthatthepartyhadbeenpressurisedinto Programme forGovernmentandgettingonwiththetaskofgoverning.TheDUP’s believe inthe‘battleaday’premonitionandhelookedforwardtoputtingplace there wouldhavetobeacollectiveeffortmovethingsforward.Hesaidhedidnot In relationtothecontentiousissueofacademicselectionMcGuinnesssuggestedthat that meetingsbetweenhispartyandtheDUPhadbeen‘business-likeserious’. would bea‘ on socialandeconomicissuessaidthattheimportantpointwaspowersharing unionists’ interests.Interestingly,however,hepointedtoagreementwithSinnFéin with republicanswouldmostlikelybea‘tussle’andhedohisbesttosecure Radio Ulster Alliance PartyofNorthernIreland (2007) IncumbentMLAEugeneMcMenaminhadfailedtogetreselectedbythe constituency butwaslater 1. added bythepartyheadquarters,therebymeaningthatSDLPhadthree candidatesinWestTyrone. http://www.allianceparty.org (accessed 5March2007). J. McEvoy political , InsidePolitics,7April2007),SinnFéin’sMartinMcGuinnessclaimed

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