Water & Development Publications - Helsinki University of Technology TKK-WD-03 CENTRAL ASIAN WATERS Social, economic, environmental and governance puzzle Muhammad Mizanur Rahaman Olli Varis (eds.) Water & Development AB HELSINKI UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY Research Group Water & Development Publications - Helsinki University of Technology Central Asian Waters: Social, economic, environmental and governance puzzle Muhammad Mizanur Rahaman Olli Varis (eds.) Helsinki University of Technology - TKK Water Resources Laboratory P.O. Box 5200 FIN-02015 TKK www.water.tkk.fi/global © 2008 by TKK & authors All rights reserved ISBN 978-951-22-9593-7 ISBN 978-951-22-9594-4 (PDF) ISSN 1797-254X First published by Water & Development Publications - Helsinki University of Technology Espoo 2008 Layout and cover by Katri Tikkanen Technical support by Matti Kummu and Tiina Merikoski Printed by Yliopistopaino, Helsinki, Finland This publication is available electronically at www.water.tkk.fi/global/publications All the research articles (Part II) in this book have been peer reviewed by at least two independent reviewers. The views, findings, interpretations, and conclusions presented in the articles are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the publisher and editors. The editors and publisher cannot guarantee the accuracy of the data included in the articles. i FOREWORD It was in 1986 that we took a train from Helsinki to Moscow. Our plan was to travel around Central Asia and get acquainted with water management in that part of the USSR. One of our particular interests was to get a view on what was going on with the Aral Sea – there were some rumors and even news about the environmental disaster but a clear picture was missing at the international arena. In Moscow, we were privileged to have meetings with distinguished Soviet water specialists such as Professors V. Voropayev and M. Khublaryan who were modest in describing what was going on in with the Aral Sea but the solution was clearly outspoken; the region needed large-scale water transfers from the Northern rivers, most preferably from Ob-Irtysh through Volga. Otherwise, there would be a massive catastrophe with millions of migrants away from the area. The solutions became very different than planned those days of Perestroika. In fact, it seems that the solutions have by and large not really been found yet; the catastrophe remains. On our trip with a team that dominantly consisted of water engineering students – among them one of the two editors of this book, Olli Varis as a young postgraduate student – we had no way to the Aral Sea but saw and heard many things. The region was and is rich with ages-old wisdom and culture. It strived to modernize its economy with massive agricultural systems and other water-related means. Many things went well we heard but we also already knew that many went totally wrong too. Looking back is easy of course but looking forward is far more difficult. Central Asia needs solutions and new insights to its development and for its water sector. We at the University tend to believe in an optimistic way that we must give all the means that we can for the young generation and they most probably will be able to make things better than what they are now. Such is the history of this book too. In autumn 2007, we organized a course at Helsinki University of Technology on Global Water Issues, with a special topic on the Central Asian water problems. This course has, over the years, targeted various regions, from China to Middle East and North Africa. The course on Central Asia was quite productive and nice, and as one of the consequences, to our positive surprise, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Finland asked for our willingness to take over the Finnish component of their co-operation with Global Water Partnership and Interstate Commission for Water Coordination of Central Asia. We accepted this offer with great pleasure. Along with the University’s mandate, we thought to propose the distinguished partners to organize a seminar in the region with the scope to involve young water professionals from Finland and from the region to deliberate the water challenges of Central Asia. The partners were fond of this idea and consequently, the seminar will take place in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, in late November 2008 with a background document which is the book in hand. ii I sincerely hope that this contribution is useful to the region’s water colleagues and will bring the attention of the young water professionals to this highly attractive region and to the region’s water challenges in a solution-seeking way. Pertti Vakkilainen Professor Water Resources Management Helsinki University of Technology iii CONTENTS PART I: Introduction Olli Varis & Muhammad Mizanur Rahaman The Aral Sea keeps drying out but is central asia short of water? 3 Björn Guterstam Towards Sustainable Water Resources Management in Central Asia 11 Victor Dukhovny, Nazir Mirzaev & Vadim Sokolov IWRM Implementation: Experiences with water sector reforms in Central Asia 19 PART II: Research Papers Bo Libert Water management in Central Asia and the activities of UNECE 35 Manijeh Mahmoudzadeh Varzi & Kai Wegerich Much Ado About Nothing – Sub-Basin Working Groups in Kunduz River Basin, Afghanistan 47 Stuart Horsman Afghanistan and Transboundary Water Management on the Amu Darya: A Political History 63 Suvi Sojamo Illustrating co-existing conflict and cooperation in the Aral Sea Basin with TWINS approach 75 Iskandar Abdullayev, Fatima Nurmetova, Farida Abdullaeva & John Lamers Socio-technical aspects of Water Management in Uzbekistan: emerging water governance issues at the grass root level 89 Rachel Strickman & Miina Porkka Water and Social Changes in Central Asia: Problems Related to Cotton Production in Uzbekistan 105 Kai Wegerich Passing over the conflict: The Chu Talas Basin agreement as a model for Central Asia? 117 Kati Kangur Deliberative Water Policy-making in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan: Focus Groups in the Talas and Chu River Basins 133 BIOGRAPHIES 147 PART I: Introduction Water & Development Publications - Helsinki University of Technology THE ARAL SEA KEEPS DRYING OUT BUT IS CENTRAL ASIA SHORT OF WATER? Olli Varis and Muhammad Mizanur Rahaman Water and Development Research Group, Helsinki University of Technology, Finland The water-related challenges of the Central Asian republics including Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, plus northern Afghanistan are indeed demanding. It is important to realize that, against the common perception, this region is not extremely water-scarce. The enormous environmental problems that have been created after 1960 are largely due to extremely uneconomic water use and due to policies that have not taken into consideration the sustainability of agricultural development, particularly in the basins of Syr Darya and Amu Darya Rivers. The per capita water use in the region is sky-high, being manifold in comparison to any other comparable part of the world. This waste of the valuable resource yields in very low economic gain, keeping the countries economically weak. 1 Introduction: water scarcity questioned At the first glance it is easy to get an impression that to consider the limit of 1000 m3 per capita of the Central Asian countries are very short of water. renewable freshwater per capita as a sort of rough All know the environmental disaster of the Aral Sea indicator of water scarcity. Countries below that and the fact that the once-so-mighty Syr Darya and line are commonly considered of having shortage of Amu Darya Rivers bring now only a fraction of the water. Whereas such simple indicators have plenty water to the Aral Sea in comparison to what the of shortcomings, they are often useful in rough situation was only some decades ago. comparisons of different countries and regions. But in fact the countries of the region are not so For instance many of the countries in the Middle scarce on water. It has become almost paradigmatic East and North Africa fall clearly below that line. Some of such countries include Algeria (457 m3/ Corresponding author: person/year), Tunisia (470), Israel (259), Jordan Olli Varis (135), Libya (110), Saudi Arabia (110), Yemen Water and Development Research Group (220) and United Arab Emirates (62). Such Helsinki University of Technology- TKK P.O. Box 5200 examples can also be found from other parts of FIN-02015 TKK, Finland the world. Let us mention one; the economically Email: olli.varis@tkk.fi booming North China which has very little water. © 2008 TKK & Rahaman & Varis ISBN 978-951-22-9593-7 Rahaman, M.M. & Varis, O. (eds.): Central Asian Waters, pp. 3-9 4 Central Asian Waters - Part 1: Introduction Table 1. Water availability and use in the Central Asian countries (World Bank 2004). TOTAL RENEWABLE % OF TOTAL % FOR % FOR % FOR RESOURCES PER RESOURCE AGRICULTURE INDUSTRY DOMESTIC CAPITA M3 Afganistan 2322 40.2 99 0 1 Kazakhstan 7368 30.7 81 17 2 Kyrgyz Republic 9293 21.7 94 3 3 Tajikistan 12706 14.9 92 4 3 Turkmenistan 12706 39.1 98 1 1 Uzbekistan 4527 50.8 94 2 4 The Hai and Luan River Basins, where for instance serious environmental problems, many of which the economically booming Beijing and Tianjin are are related to the unsustainable agricultural located, has only slightly over 200 m3 per capita of development. Accumulation of salts and pesticides renewable freshwater to offer. in soils is a particularly detrimental problem. Now, the impression that the Central Asian Rather than blaming the nature of not being countries have very little water is easily turned generous enough in terms of water and other down by the figures in Table 1. In fact, some of natural resources, we must approach the question the countries such as Tajikistan and Turkmenistan from the other direction; from the water use which are relatively affluent with water, having more of indeed is sky-high.