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Study on Exploring the Possible Employment Implications Of This document is downloaded from the VTT’s Research Information Portal https://cris.vtt.fi VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Study on exploring the possible employment implications of connected and automated driving Smit, Geert; Flickenschild, Michael ; Verkennis, Nils; Martino, Angelo ; De Stasio, Claudia; Fiorello, Davide; Schade, Wolfgang ; Scherf, Christian ; Berthold, Daniel; Stich, Meike; Öörni, Risto; Fougeyrollas, Arnaud; Dreher, Stephane; Giro, Carlo ; Tozzi, Michele ; Saeidizand, Pedram Published: 13/01/2021 Document Version Publisher's final version Link to publication Please cite the original version: Smit, G., Flickenschild, M., Verkennis, N., Martino, A., De Stasio, C., Fiorello, D., Schade, W., Scherf, C., Berthold, D., Stich, M., Öörni, R., Fougeyrollas, A., Dreher, S., Giro, C., Tozzi, M., & Saeidizand, P. (2021). Study on exploring the possible employment implications of connected and automated driving: Final Report. ECORYS. http://ecorys.com/cad VTT By using VTT’s Research Information Portal you are bound by the http://www.vtt.fi following Terms & Conditions. P.O. box 1000FI-02044 VTT I have read and I understand the following statement: Finland This document is protected by copyright and other intellectual property rights, and duplication or sale of all or part of any of this document is not permitted, except duplication for research use or educational purposes in electronic or print form. You must obtain permission for any other use. Electronic or print copies may not be offered for sale. Download date: 08. Oct. 2021 Study on exploring the possible employment implications of connected and automated driving Draft Final Report Client: European Commission, DG RTD Rotterdam, 31 August 2020 Study on exploring the possible employment implications of connected and automated driving Annexes Client: European Commission, Directorate General for Research & Innovation, C.5 Ecological and Social Transitions This report was written by Ecorys, TRT Srl and M-Five GmbH with the support of VTT, SEURECO, ERTICO-ITS Europe, IRU Projects and UITP.1 Rotterdam, 02 October 2020 Disclaimer: The information and views set out in this study are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official opinion of the Commission. The Commission does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this study. Neither the Commission nor any person acting on the Commission’s behalf may be held responsible for the use which may be made of the information contained therein. 1 The authors are Geert Smit, Michael Flickenschild, Nils Verkennis (Ecorys); Angelo Martino, Claudia De Stasio, Davide Fiorello (TRT), Wolfgang Schade, Christian Scherf, Daniel Berthold, Meike Stich (M-Five); Risto Öörni (VTT); Arnaud Fougeyrollas (SEURECO); Stephane Dreher (ERTICO); Carlo Giro (IRU); Michele Tozzi and Pedram Saeidizand (UITP). Table of Contents List of Tables 9 List of Figures 13 Annex A – Data Collection Framework 15 Annex B –The Scenario Model and Scenarios 23 Annex C – The Economic and the Synthesis models 51 Annex D – Literature review and sources 135 Annex E – Stakeholder consultations 169 Annex F – Disaggregated survey results 185 Annex G – Workshop minutes 215 Annex H – Impacts on business models 241 Annex I – Policy measures matrix 267 Study on exploring the possible employment implications of connected and automated driving 5 List of Tables Table A.1 Data inputs for Scenario Model 16 Table A.2 Data inputs for the ASTRA Model, the Component Model and the Mobility Service Model 19 Table A.3 Data inputs for the NEMESIS model 22 Table A.4 Data inputs for the Synthesis model 22 Table B.1 Reference Scenario – Composition of car fleet by automation level (EU27) 40 Table B.2 Scenario 1 – Composition of car fleet by automation level (EU27) 41 Table B.3 Scenario 2 – Composition of car fleet by automation level (EU27) 42 Table B.4 Scenario 3 – Composition of car fleet by automation level (EU27) 42 Table B.5 Scenario 4 – Composition of car fleet by automation level (EU27) 43 Table B.6 Reference Scenario – Composition of bus fleet by automation level (EU27) 44 Table B.7 Scenario 1 – Composition of bus fleet by automation level (EU27) 44 Table B.8 Scenario 2 – Composition of bus fleet by automation level (EU27) 45 Table B.9 Scenario 3 – Composition of bus fleet by automation level (EU27) 46 Table B.10 Scenario 4 – Composition of bus fleet by automation level (EU27) 46 Table B.11 Reference Scenario – Composition of freight vehicles fleet by automation level (EU27) 47 Table B.12 Scenario 1 – Composition of freight vehicles fleet by automation level (EU27) 48 Table B.13 Scenario 2 – Composition of freight vehicles fleet by automation level (EU27) 48 Table B.14 Scenario 3 – Composition of freight vehicles fleet by automation level (EU27) 49 Table B.15 Scenario 4 – Composition of freight vehicles fleet by automation level (EU27) 50 Table C.1 Relations between NACE, NEMESIS and ASTRA sectors as well as relevance for CAD 58 Table C.2 Digital components, which are relevant for CAD-based services 62 Table C.3 Car models considered in the passenger cars component model 66 Table C.4 Mapping of vehicle components to economic sectors in ASTRA 69 Table C.5 Data collected on investments in R&D and production of CAD-components 71 Table C.6 Costs per RSU 74 Table C.7 Costs of Central Intelligent Transport System Integration 75 Table C.8 CAD progress profiles in terms MS 80 Table C.9 Framework of the generic job keys (general framework) 81 Table C.10 categories of the job key distribution 81 Table C.11 job keys for buses (classic) 82 Table C.12 job keys for buses (automated) 83 Table C.13 job keys for taxi (classic) 84 Table C.14 job key for taxi (automated) 85 Table C.15 job keys for carsharing 86 Table C.16 job keys for ridesharing 87 Table C.17 job keys for light-duty vehicles (classic) 88 Table C.18 job keys for light-duty vehicles (automated) 89 Table C.19 job keys for heavy-duty vehicle (classic) 90 Table C.20 job keys for heavy-duty vehicles (automated) 91 Table C.21 job keys for trains 92 Table C.22 Sources of job keys per service (overview) 92 Study on exploring the possible employment implications of connected and automated driving 9 Table C.23 sources and processes of the creation of regional keys 96 Table C.24 Sectoral employment of EU27 in relevant sectors, Baseline (ASTRA) 97 Table C.25 Sectoral employment of EU27 in relevant sectors, Scenario 1 (ASTRA) 97 Table C.26 Sectoral employment of EU27 in relevant sectors, Scenario 2 (ASTRA) 98 Table C.27 Sectoral employment of EU27 in relevant sectors, Scenario 3 (ASTRA) 98 Table C.28 Sectoral employment of EU27 in relevant sectors, Scenario 4 (ASTRA) 98 Table C.29 CAD-related companies in the NUTS zone Île-de-France (selection) 101 Table C.30 CAD-related companies in the NUTS zone Oberbayern (selection) 102 Table C.31 CAD-related companies in the NUTS zone Stuttgart (selection) 103 Table C.32 CAD-related companies in the NUTS zone Dresden (selection) 105 Table C.33 CAD-related companies in the NUTS zone Chemnitz (selection) 105 Table C.34 CAD-related companies in the NUTS zone Noord-Brabant (selection) 105 Table C.35 CAD-related companies in the NUTS zone Stockholm (selection) 106 Table C.36 CAD-related companies in the NUTS zone Västsverige (selection) 106 Table C.37 Development of GDP of EU27, all scenarios (ASTRA) 106 Table C.38 Development of GDP per country, Baseline (ASTRA) 107 Table C.39 Development of GDP per country, Scenario 1 (ASTRA) 108 Table C.40 Development of GDP per country, Scenario 2 (ASTRA) 109 Table C.41 Development of GDP per country, Scenario 3 (ASTRA) 110 Table C.42 Development of GDP per country, Scenario 4 (ASTRA) 111 Table C.43 Total employment of EU27, all scenarios (ASTRA) 112 Table C.44 Development of total employment per country, Baseline (ASTRA) 112 Table C.45 Development of total employment per country, Scenario 1 (ASTRA) 113 Table C.46 Development of total employment per country, Scenario 2 (ASTRA) 114 Table C.47 Development of total employment per country, Scenario 3 (ASTRA) 115 Table C.48 Development of total employment per country, Scenario 4 (ASTRA) 116 Table C.49 Main macroeconomic results for Scenario 1 (NEMESIS) 118 Table C.50 Employment in some sectors for Scenario 1 (NEMESIS) 118 Table C.51 Main macroeconomic results for Scenario 2 (NEMESIS) 119 Table C.52 Employment in some sectors for Scenario 2 (NEMESIS) 119 Table C.53 Main macroeconomic results for Scenario 3 (NEMESIS) 119 Table C.54 Employment in some sectors for Scenario 3 (NEMESIS) 121 Table C.55 Main macroeconomic results for Scenario 4 (NEMESIS) 121 Table C.56 Employment in some sectors for Scenario 4 (NEMESIS) 122 Table C.57 Comparing results for Italy and Spain in Scenario 1 & 2 (NEMESIS) 123 Table C.58 Comparing results for Germany and France in Scenario 3 & 4 (NEMESIS) 123 Table C.59 Total employment of EU27, all scenarios 127 Table C.60 GDP of EU27, all scenarios 128 Table C.61 Main macroeconomic results for Scenario 1 130 Table C.62 Employment in relevant sectors for Scenario 1 130 Table C.63 Main macroeconomic results for Scenario 2 131 Table C.64 Employment in relevant sectors for Scenario 2 131 Table C.65 Main macroeconomic results for Scenario 3 132 Table C.66 Employment in relevant sectors for Scenario 3 133 Table C.67 Main macroeconomic results for Scenario 4 133 Table C.68 Employment in relevant sectors for Scenario 4 133 10 Study on exploring the possible employment implications of connected and automated driving Table D.1 Estimated market introduction of CAD systems (2016) 137 Table D.2 Estimated market introduction of CAD systems (2019) 138 Table D.3 Overview on CAD related policies in third countries 143 Table D.4 Autonomous Vehicles Readiness Index - Rankings of Top Five Countries 146 Table D.5 Autonomous Vehicle Readiness Index for Major Vehicle Producing Countries 146 Table D.6 EU funded (FP7 and H2020) and Member State funded projects addressing societal aspects: user acceptance, ethics and driver training 148 Table D.7 List of reviewed literature 155 Table D.8 EU funded (FP7 and H2020) and Member State funded projects addressing societal aspects: user acceptance, ethics and driver training 162 Table H.1 Main business cases related to CAD.
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