Case Studies of Expert System & Research Aspects in Artificial Intelligence
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Artificial Intelligence in Health Care: the Hope, the Hype, the Promise, the Peril
Artificial Intelligence in Health Care: The Hope, the Hype, the Promise, the Peril Michael Matheny, Sonoo Thadaney Israni, Mahnoor Ahmed, and Danielle Whicher, Editors WASHINGTON, DC NAM.EDU PREPUBLICATION COPY - Uncorrected Proofs NATIONAL ACADEMY OF MEDICINE • 500 Fifth Street, NW • WASHINGTON, DC 20001 NOTICE: This publication has undergone peer review according to procedures established by the National Academy of Medicine (NAM). Publication by the NAM worthy of public attention, but does not constitute endorsement of conclusions and recommendationssignifies that it is the by productthe NAM. of The a carefully views presented considered in processthis publication and is a contributionare those of individual contributors and do not represent formal consensus positions of the authors’ organizations; the NAM; or the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data to Come Copyright 2019 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. Suggested citation: Matheny, M., S. Thadaney Israni, M. Ahmed, and D. Whicher, Editors. 2019. Artificial Intelligence in Health Care: The Hope, the Hype, the Promise, the Peril. NAM Special Publication. Washington, DC: National Academy of Medicine. PREPUBLICATION COPY - Uncorrected Proofs “Knowing is not enough; we must apply. Willing is not enough; we must do.” --GOETHE PREPUBLICATION COPY - Uncorrected Proofs ABOUT THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF MEDICINE The National Academy of Medicine is one of three Academies constituting the Nation- al Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (the National Academies). The Na- tional Academies provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. -
Prominence of Expert System and Case Study- DENDRAL Namita Mirjankar, Shruti Ghatnatti Karnataka, India [email protected],[email protected]
International Journal of Advanced Networking & Applications (IJANA) ISSN: 0975-0282 Prominence of Expert System and Case Study- DENDRAL Namita Mirjankar, Shruti Ghatnatti Karnataka, India [email protected],[email protected] Abstract—Among many applications of Artificial Intelligence, Expert System is the one that exploits human knowledge to solve problems which ordinarily would require human insight. Expert systems are designed to carry the insight and knowledge found in the experts in a particular field and take decisions based on the accumulated knowledge of the knowledge base along with an arrangement of standards and principles of inference engine, and at the same time, justify those decisions with the help of explanation facility. Inference engine is continuously updated as new conclusions are drawn from each new certainty in the knowledge base which triggers extra guidelines, heuristics and rules in the inference engine. This paper explains the basic architecture of Expert System , its first ever success DENDRAL which became a stepping stone in the Artificial Intelligence field, as well as the difficulties faced by the Expert Systems Keywords—Artificial Intelligence; Expert System architecture; knowledge base; inference engine; DENDRAL I INTRODUCTION the main components that remain same are: User Interface, Knowledge Base and Inference Engine. For more than two thousand years, rationalists all over the world have been striving to comprehend and resolve two unavoidable issues of the universe: how does a human mind work, and can non-people have minds? In any case, these inquiries are still unanswered. As humans, we all are blessed with the ability to learn and comprehend, to think about different issues and to decide; but can we design machines to do all these things? Some philosophers are open to the idea that machines will perform all the tasks a human can do. -
The History of Expert Systems
Articles Learning from Artificial Intelligence’s Previous Awakenings: The History of Expert Systems David C. Brock n Much of the contemporary moment’s f it is indeed true that we cannot fully understand our enthusiasms for and commercial inter- present without knowledge of our past, there is perhaps ests in artificial intelligence, specificial- Ino better time than the present to attend to the history of ly machine learning, are prefigured in artificial intelligence. Late 2017 saw Sundar Pichai, the CEO the experience of the artificial intelli- of Google, Inc., opine that “AI is one of the most important gence community concerned with expert systems in the 1970s and 1980s. This things that humanity is working on. It’s more profound than, essay is based on an invited panel on I don’t know, electricity or fire” (Schleifer 2018). Pichai’s the history of expert systems at the notable enthusiasm for, and optimism about, the power of AAAI-17 conference, featuring Ed multilayer neural networks coupled to large data stores is Feigenbaum, Bruce Buchanan, Randall widely shared in technical communities and well beyond. Davis, and Eric Horvitz. It argues that Indeed, the general zeal for such artificial intelligence sys- artifical intelligence communities today tems of the past decade across the academy, business, gov- have much to learn from the way that ernment, and the popular imagination was reflected in a earlier communities grappled with the New York Times Magazine , issues of intelligibility and instrumen- recent article “The Great AI Awak- tality in the study of intelligence. ening” (Lewis-Kraus 2016). Imaginings of our near-future promoted by the World Economic Forum under the banner of a Fourth Industrial Revolution place this “machine learn- ing” at the center of profound changes in economic activity and social life, indeed in the very meaning of what it means to be human (Schwab 2016). -
Application of Artificial Intelligence Technology in Oncology
cancers Review Application of Artificial Intelligence Technology in Oncology: Towards the Establishment of Precision Medicine Ryuji Hamamoto 1,2,3,*, Kruthi Suvarna 4, Masayoshi Yamada 1,5, Kazuma Kobayashi 1,2,3, Norio Shinkai 1,2,3, Mototaka Miyake 6, Masamichi Takahashi 1,7, Shunichi Jinnai 8 , Ryo Shimoyama 1 , Akira Sakai 1,3, Ken Takasawa 1,2 , Amina Bolatkan 1,2, Kanto Shozu 1 , Ai Dozen 1 , Hidenori Machino 1,2, Satoshi Takahashi 1,2, Ken Asada 1,2 , Masaaki Komatsu 1,2 , Jun Sese 1,9 and Syuzo Kaneko 1,2 1 Division of Molecular Modification and Cancer Biology, National Cancer Center Research Institute, 5-1-1 Tsukiji, Chuo-ku, Tokyo 104-0045, Japan; [email protected] (M.Y.); [email protected] (K.K.); [email protected] (N.S.); [email protected] (M.T.); [email protected] (R.S.); [email protected] (A.S.); [email protected] (K.T.); [email protected] (A.B.); [email protected] (K.S.); [email protected] (A.D.); [email protected] (H.M.); sing.monotonyfl[email protected] (S.T.); [email protected] (K.A.); [email protected] (M.K.); [email protected] (J.S.); [email protected] (S.K.) 2 Cancer Translational Research Team, RIKEN Center for Advanced Intelligence Project, 1-4-1 Nihonbashi, Chuo-ku, Tokyo 103-0027, Japan 3 Department of NCC Cancer Science, Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences, Tokyo Medical and Dental University, 1-5-45 Yushima, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8510, Japan 4 Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Powai, Mumbai 400 076, India; [email protected] 5 Department of Endoscopy, National Cancer Center -
Carl Djerassi 1923‐2015
SenD#7009 MEMORIAL RESOLUTION CARL DJERASSI 1923‐2015 Carl Djerassi, Professor Emeritus of Chemistry, novelist, playwright, patron of the arts and pioneer in the production of the oral contraceptive pill, died in his home in San Francisco on January 30. He was 91 years old. Djerassi was born in Vienna in 1923 to Samuel Djerassi and Alice Friedmann. He lived for periods in Sofia, Bulgaria and Vienna but with the rising Nazi threat, moved with his mother to the United States, arriving nearly penniless in 1939. Djerassi graduated at the age of 18 from Kenyon College where in his own words, he “became a chemist”. He earned a Ph.D. in chemistry from Wisconsin in 1945 and subsequently worked at CIBA, developing one of the first commercial antihistamines (Pyribenzamine). In 1949, Djerassi became associate director of research at Syntex in Mexico City. His research on steroids led to the synthesis of norethisterone and the first birth‐control pill, studies that have since transformed science and society. Djerassi joined the faculty at Wayne State University in 1952. In 1959, he joined the faculty at Stanford while for a time serving also as president of Syntex Research. In 1968, he founded Zoecon, a company directed at hormonal control of insect pests. Djerassi published over 1200 scientific manuscripts, encompassing seminal contributions to tools for structure elucidation including mass spectrometry, magnetic circular dichroism and optical rotatory dispersion. He also made pioneering contributions to our understanding of the biosynthesis of marine natural products. With Nobel Laureate Joshua Lederberg and computer scientist Edward Feigenbaum, he also devised a computer program called DENDRAL, one of the earliest uses of artificial intelligence for structure elucidation. -
An Overview of Expert Systems
NBS NAT'L INST. OF STAND & TECH U.S. Department publications of Commerce National Bureau AlllDb EE52SE of Standards NBSIR 82-2505 AN OVERVIEW OF EXPERT SYSTEMS May 1982 Prepared for — lilC " National Aeronautics and Space inn Administration Headquarters Washington, D.C. 20546 o2-2iUb lyo2 c. 2 MATIUNAL UUKaAb OP BTANOABUS UBtAJtT NBSIR 82-2505 JUL 7 1^2 AN OVERVIEW OF EXPERT SYSTEMS A - - - - d I William B. Gevarter U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Bureau of Standards National Engineering Laboratory Center for Manufacturing Engineering Industrial Systems Division Metrology Building, Room A127 Washington, DC 20234 May 1982 Prepared for: National Aeronautics and Space Administration Headquarters Washington, DC 20546 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, Malcolm Baldrige, Secretary NATIONAL BUREAU OF STANDARDS, Ernest Ambler, Director i s\n>»\i’i aiwujfA*!, \i. t.f.iMA0»ATa "SO TRAsnrw SBer t JUl m ^ :'^;. 'r 4 i /_ !^-., ^ -A- i ii'.i Uf »tSs»-®:'»airJ ( ^' ^n<3l^iyl0 -4^W: ^ ' ' 'ift’tm .'£f 1^ '''t m': t •«•, !©• u 3i ^'i:. #' 'T @|» la.. '• >S' \n "4kv 'r^-trii 1. /2r„ a. li 3 I GS^ m m wai I ft % ^ i <*sf '-.-4 Preface Expert systems is probably the "hottest” topic in Artificial Intelligence (AI) today. In the past, in trying to find solutions to problems, AI researchers tended to rely on search techniques or computational logic. These techniques were successfully used to solve elementary or toy problems or very well structured problems such as games. However, real complex problems are prone to have the characteristic that their search space tends to expand exponentially with the number of parameters involved. -
An Introduction to Expert Systems
AN INTRODUCTION TO EXPERT SYSTEMS by Bryan S. Todd Technical Monograph PRG·95 ISBN 0-902928-73-2 February 1992 Oxford University Computing Laboratory Programming Research Group 11 Keble Road Oxford OXI3QD England Copyri~ht © 1992 Brya.n S. Todd Oxford University Computing Laboratory Programming Research Group 11 Keble Road Oxford OX! 3QD England Electronic mail: toddlDcomlab.ox.ac.uk An Introduction to Expert Systems Bryan S. Todd Abstract This monograph provides an introduction to the theory of expert systems. The task of medical diagnosis is used as a unifying theme throughout. A broad perspective is taken, ranging from the role of diagnostic programs to methods of evaluation. While much emphasis is placed on probability theory, other calculi of uncertainty are given due consideration. Contents 1 Synopsis 1 1.1 Scope of Monograph 1 1.2 Outline of }'·1onograph 2 2 Decision Support Systems 3 2.1 Purpose a.nd Role . 3 2.1.1 Checklists . 3 2.1.2 Decision Aids 3 2.2 Early Attempts . 4 2.2.1 Flowcharts 5 2.3 Observer Variation . 5 2.4 Statistical Methods. G 2.4.1 The Value of Raw Data G 2.4.2 Probability Theory G 2.4.3 Bayes' Theorem 10 3 Data-Based Approaches 13 3.1 Validity of the Independence Assumption 13 3.2 Avoiding the Independence Assumption 14 3.2.1 Lancaster Model .. 14 3.2.2 Clustering Methods 14 3.2.3 Kernel Method ... 14 3.3 Nearest-Neighbours Method 15 3.4 Logi stie Model ...... 16 3.4.1 The Spicgelhalt€r-Knill~Jones Method 17 3.5 Recursive Partitioning 19 3.6 Neural Networks 22 4 Rule-Based Methods 24 4.1 Types of Knowledge .. -
Theory and Application of Expert Systems in Emergency Management Operations
A11102 blS.TflE NATL INST OF STANDARDS & TECH R.I.C. A1 1102615982 /Theory and application of expert system QC100 .U57 N0.717 V1986 C.2 C.1 NBS-PUB- in NBS SPECIAL PUBLICATION 717 a % T / U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE/National Bureau of Standards Theory and Application of Expert Systems in Emergency Management Operations Gass and Chapman, Editors . Tm he National Bureau of Standards' was established by an act of Congress on March 3, 1901. The M Bureau's overall goal is to strengthen and advance the nation's science and technology and facilitate their effective application for public benefit. To this end, the Bureau conducts research and provides: (1) a basis for the nation's physical measurement system, (2) scientific and technological services for industry and government, (3) a technical basis for equity in trade, and (4) technical services to promote public safety. The Bureau's technical work is performed by the National Measurement Laboratory, the National Engineering Laboratory, the Institute for Computer Sciences and Technology, and the Institute for Materials Science and Engineering The National Measurement Laboratory 2 Provides the national system of physical and chemical measurement; • Basic Standards coordinates the system with measurement systems of other nations and • Radiation Research furnishes essential services leading to accurate and uniform physical and • Chemical Physics chemical measurement throughout the Nation's scientific community, in- • Analytical Chemistry dustry, and commerce; provides advisory and research services -
A Tribute to Carl Djerassi
A Trfbute to Carl Djensssi: Reflections on a Remarkable Scientific Entrepreneur Number 42 October 18,1982 There has been much said about the Djerassi is best known to the public for scientflc entrepreneur. Ordinarily the h~ contribution to the development of term is applied to the scientist who has the birth control pill. But research in con- been successful in business, One thinks traception is only one aspect of his multi- of Thomas Edison or Edwin Land, faceted career. He is one of the giants of founder of Polaroid, among others, But modern organic chemistry. Carl has been there are also scientific entrepreneurs in a leader in analyzing or “elucidating” the the academic community. Many Cur- structures of complex organic molecules rent Contents@ (G@’ ) readers fall into and in applying these discoveries to the this category so I will not belabor the synthesis of pharmaceutically important point. My reason for mentioning these compounds. He is also responsible for two meanings of scientific entrepreneur major advances in the methodologies is to emphasize that we rarely find both used by organic chemists. Analytical kinds in one person. To maintain a cred- techniques which he helped develop, ible academic existence one needs enor- such as optical rotatory dispersion, circu- mous dedication and energy. To func- lar dichroism, and mass spectrometry, tion in a scientifically oriented business are now among the most widely used you need these qualities as well as signifi- took in organic chemistry. cant managerial competence. That rare I first met Djerassi back in 1959. We combination of qualities is found in my were introduced by Joshua Lederberg, friend Carl Djerassi. -
An Expert System for Diagnosis of Blood Disorder
International Journal of Computer Applications (0975 – 8887) Volume 100– No.7, August 2014 An Expert System for Diagnosis of Blood Disorder Ayangbekun, Oluwafemi J Olatunde, Ayoola I. Felix O. Bankole Department of Information Department of Computer Department of Information Systems Science Systems University of Cape Town Crescent University Abeokuta University of Western Cape South Africa Nigeria South Africa ABSTRACT diagnosis/treatment. The proposed system has been subjected The mortality rates in medical sector have given birth to most to a voluminous amount of information gotten from the technology that aids in treatment of diverse ailments. The hematologist (i.e the expert in this field). The information is commencement of technology era in the 20 century gives a great relatively manipulated into expert system to solve humans’ mark to the limit of unnecessary element that causes mortality. As blood problems. Most expert system build recently has left the time is one of the major elements that deal with mortality issue, issue of blood diagnosis and focuses on other major area of this however give birth to this research as it stands out to help in medicine. Although there is no singular system that can take reducing the time that is used in attending to a critical patient care of all medical works, in which as well, there has been medical condition. This is to aid the doctors and other medical nobody that can stand out to call himself an expert in all area practioners in attending and prescribing treatment to patients. of medicine which has always made this a little cumbersome. -
How DENDRAL Was Conceived and Born. Joshua Lederberg Rockefeller University New York, N.Y
How DENDRAL was conceived and born. Joshua Lederberg Rockefeller University New York, N.Y. As agreed with your organizers, this will be a somewhat personal history. They have given me permission to recall how I came to work with Ed Feigenbaum on DENDRAL, an exemplar of expert systems and of modelling problem-solving behavior. My recollections are based on a modest effort of historiography, but not a definitive survey of and search for all relevant documents. On the other hand, they will give more of the flow of ideas and events as they happened than is customary in published papers in scientific journals -- accounts so dry that Medawar lugubriously calls them fraudulent (43); cf. Merton & Zuckerman (44, 45, 61). These authors point out that the standard scientific publication is narrowmindedly devoted to the context of justification. The DENDRAL effort (along with much of medical informatics) is dedicated to discovery: should we use a different standard for its history? I hope it will be eventually possible to divert my colleagues from the more important work they do from day to day, and join me in a larger effort at historical research and informed consensus. My account is inevitably incomplete, especially about what others were thinking at a given moment. Built into the phenomenon of history, as soon as enough time has passed to enable some detachef judgment, the evidence becomes frail, and we become vulnerable to the myths we create. Understanding all of these limitations, I will no longer qualify every remark: it should be implicit that each is "to the best of LAY recollection / or/ as best as can be inferred from the fragmentary documentary recordn. -
The Stanford Heuristic Programming Project: Goals and Activities
AI Magazine Volume 1 Number 1 (1980) (© AAAI) Al Magazine 25 directed machine transformations of a checked-out and these topics provides new techniques and mechanisms for the debugged single-machine implementation. design and construction of knowledge bases, its explanation, and its use to solve problems. Continued work on these topics Packet Radio Terminal System Evaluation provides new techniques and mechanisms for the design and Tom Ellis and Steve Saunders construction of knowledge-based programs; experience Work intended to result in a demonstration-level portable gained from the actual construction of these systems then terminal to test and evaluate various solutions to the issues feeds back both (a) evaluative information of the ideas’ utility raised by extreme portability in the packet-radio environment. and (b) reports of quite specific problems and the ways in which they have been overcome, which may suggest some more general method to be tried in other programs. One of our long-range goals is to isolate AI techniques that The Stanford Heuristic Programming Project: are general, to determine the conditions for their use and to Goals and Activities build up a knowledge base about AI techniques themselves. Under support from ARPA, NIH/NLM, ONR, NSF, and industry, the HPP conducts research on five key scientific by the Staff of the Heuristic Programming Project problems of AI, as well as a host of subsidiary issues: The Heuristic Programming Project (HPP) of the Stanford 1. Knowledge Representation-How shall the knowledge University Computer Science Department is a laboratory of necessary for expert-level performance be represented about fifty people-faculty, staff, and graduate students- for computer use? How can one achieve flexibility in whose main goals are these: adding and changing knowledge in the continuous development of a knowledge base? Are there uniform .