Democracy, Dictatorship and Economic Performance in Chile William R. Keech Department of Social and Decision Sciences Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh, PA 15213
[email protected] Paper presented at the Latin American Meeting of the Econometric Society Santiago, Chile July 28-30, 2004 The political and economic experience of Chile between 1932 and the present provides a natural experiment for a comparison of democracy and dictatorship with respect to their impact on economic performance. Democracy existed in Chile between 1932 and 1973, and was associated with a very wide range of efforts at economic reform, though without lasting success in any of them. This period also shows that democratic politics can provide economically perverse incentives, and can legitimately elect a president who carries out disastrous economic policies. In the period between 1973 and 1990, Chile had a dictatorship that, with a long lagtime, successfully reformed economic institutions, and brought about constructive changes in economic performance. This regime made some mistakes that may have prolonged the recovery, but the notable thing was the fact that the economy not only recovered, but achieved a new level of prosperity. My argument is that the neoliberal economic policies were central to economic success. Since 1990, democratic governments have maintained the institutions and policies that brought about improved economic performance under the dictatorship, and have continued to enjoy the resulting prosperity. The democratic governments have been more sensitive to equity issues, but not at the expense of economic performance. Chile’s experience is not typical, but it is instructive about the relationship between political institutions and economic performance.