WORKING PAPER Number 2, June 2009 STABILITY IN IRAQI KURDISTAN: REALITY OR MIRAGE? LYDIA KHALIL WORKING PAPER Number 2, June 2009 STABILITY IN IRAQI KURDISTAN: REALITY OR MIRAGE? LYDIA KHALIL Saban Center Working Papers are meant to stimulate debate and discussion on difficult policy questions. As with all Brookings pa- pers, Working Papers do not necessarily reflect the views of the Saban Center, the Brookings Institution, or the Institution’s board of trustees. All Saban Center Working Papers are available online at www.brookings.edu/sabancenter, and comments may be sent to
[email protected]. Table of Contents Acknowledgements. iii Executive Summary. iv About the Author. ix Introduction. 1 Good News, Bad News. 3 The Oil Law Controversy: Does Energy Independence Mean Territorial Independence?. .5 Kirkuk: The Powder Keg. 16 Internal Challenges: The Two Kurdistans . 21 Turkey and the KRG: Mending Fences. 30 KRG: Looking in a Different Direction. 35 Recommendations for U.S. Policy. 37 S tabi L it Y I N IRAQI KURDISTA N : R E A L it Y O R M ira GE? The Saban Center at The Brookings Institution ii Acknowledgements hank you to the Saban Center for Middle East My thanks also to the many Kurdish and Iraqi offi- TPolicy for providing me the opportunity to cials who took the time to speak candidly with me publish this paper. Special thanks to Martin Indyk about the challenges that lay ahead. Because many and Ken Pollack, who was an early mentor and pa- of our conversations were off the record, they have tiently guided the paper’s drafting and publication.