Yo-Yo Market Seeks Stability in Face of Tariffs, Cheese Stocks
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Volume 38 August 3, 2018 Number 29 Yo-yo market seeks stability in Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter! face of tariffs, cheese stocks A By Alyssa Mitchell gling to strike a balance for but as I mentioned, some of issue of Cheese Market News.) much of the year, but the volatil- those concerns have already Meanwhile, the U.S. nonfat INSIDE MADISON, Wis. — Cheddar ity of the past month has been had an impact on daily prices,” dry milk (NDM) market has barrels at the Chicago Mercan- signifi cant,” says Sara Dorland, she says. “Unless trade data strengthened a bit in recent tile Exchange (CME) have expe- managing partner at Ceres Dairy comes out unscathed, I think weeks as hot weather in key ✦ Guest column: ‘The time rienced signifi cant price swings Risk Management LLC, Seattle. the current price level is a likely powder-producing states has is now for microfi ltration.’ in recent weeks as the U.S. dairy “The market has swung from the outcome for the third quarter.” resulted in less milk, and there- For details, see page 4. market faces tariff pressure and $1.20s to the $1.40s nearly every Mike McCully, owner of The fore, less milk powder, McCully heavy cheese stocks. other week since the start of McCully Group LLC, New Buf- notes. ✦ Guest column: ‘What is $12 USDA’s Dairy Market News July, and that is a wide range.” falo, Michigan, says with the He adds that in Europe, hot, billion amongst friends?’ notes CME barrel prices CME block Cheddar has uncertainty surrounding cheese dry weather in several countries For details, see page 6. dropped 11-and-a-half cents been a bit more stable, moving exports, domestic demand has has negatively impacted milk Monday, “surprising few mar- between $1.50 and $1.55 per not been strong enough to keep output, so milk powder produc- ✦ Dairy Cares gives $200,000 ket participants, as contacts pound for much of July and cheese supplies from bulging to tion is falling there as well. to Children’s Hospital. expected some price correction increasing to $1.5875 today. new record highs. “I think a lot of end-users are For details, see page 13. from last week’s buildup. Annie AcMoody, director of However, U.S. cheese prices covered for most of the rest of “Producers are slightly anx- economic analysis for Western continue to trade at a discount 2018. There is still the issue of ✦ Sartori wins best USA ious but hopeful regarding some United Dairymen, says the to European and New Zealand the mountain of old milk powder cheese at International steadiness moving forward in combination of a bearish Cold prices, so that should keep stocks in the European Union Cheese Awards. the cheese markets,” Dairy Storage report for June and exports moving, he says. intervention program that they For details, see page 26. Market News adds. trade tariff announcements this “There will be a seasonal will try to aggressively sell,” Mc- “Barrels have been strug- summer have pressured cheese downturn in stocks this fall, but Cully says. “I believe U.S. NDM markets. it appears very large inventories prices can move into the $0.90s While heat in the Midwest will hang around, especially this year, but over $1 will take in early July helped bring some with more production capacity a more signifi cant downturn in Harbison from Cellars at market confi dence back, tariffs coming online over the next 6-9 supply.” are on market participants’ months,” he adds. At the same time, CME Jasper Hill is ACS winner minds. With that and weather Dorland says additional butter continues to show price cooling off some in the Midwest, production capacity added over strength, with analysts antici- PITTSBURGH — Cellars at Jasper Hill, Greensboro Bend, Vermont, “the market sadly is not poised the past two years is one reason pating additional upward price won the top two awards at the American Cheese Society (ACS) 2018 for a signifi cant upward long- cheese stocks have increased, movement this fall. Judging and Competition, which took place last week. lasting price move,” she says. noting that American cheese CME butter settled last Jasper Hill’s Harbison, a soft-ripened cheese with a bloomy rind At the same time, there is stocks are fl at, suggesting that week at $2.2625 per pound and wrapped in spruce bark, was named Best of Show, while Calderwood, plenty of cheese available on most of the new growth is in the has increased an additional 5.5 a variation of Jasper Hill’s Alpine-style Alpha Tolman coated with hay the U.S. market, AcMoody says. Italian cheese category. (For the cents this week to settle at $2.32. fi bers, took Second Best of Show. “Trade data has not yet latest Cold Storage data, see McCully says he is forecast- “What a thrill! These wins represent the efforts of many dedicated shown how our export markets “Cheese stocks in cold storage ing butter prices to trade in the people from our cropping crew and herdsmen, through production will be impacted by the tariffs, set record in June” in last week’s Turn to YO-YO, page 11 a and affi nage, to sales and support,” says Mateo Kehler, cheesemaker, Cellars at Jasper Hill. “It took a village working in concert to pull this off.” Harbison previously had been awarded Second Best in Show at the 2017 and 2015 ACS competitions. Total cheese production Wisconsin earns Third Best in Show this year was awarded to COWS Creamery, world title with Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island, for its Avonlea Clothbound up in June by 1.8 percent big cheeseboard Cheddar. WASHINGTON — Total U.S. cheese production, excluding cot- “This prestigious award for Avonlea is a true honor, and we’re very tage cheese, in June was 1.06 billion pounds, up 1.8 percent from MADISON, Wis. — Dairy pleased to represent not just Prince Edward Island, but also Canada,” June 2017 but 1.9 percent below May 2018, according to USDA’s Farmers of Wisconsin made says Andrea White, wholesale manager, COWS Creamery. Dairy Production report released Thursday by USDA’s National history on Wednesday by This year’s contest featured a total 1,954 entries from 259 companies Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). (All fi gures are rounded. creating the World’s Largest representing 35 U.S. states, fi ve Canadian provinces, Mexico, Colum- Please see CMN’s Dairy Production chart on page 26.) Cheeseboard, offi cially set- bia and Brazil. The results were announced at a July 27 ceremony at When adjusted for the length of the months, total June cheese ting a new Guinness World the 35th annual ACS conference, “Forged in Cheese,” at the David L. production was up 1.4 percent from May 2018 on an average Records title. Spanning 35 Lawrence Convention Center in Pittsburgh. daily basis. feet long and 7 feet wide, “This year’s competition once again featured the very best cheeses Production of Mozzarella, the nation’s most-produced cheese, the board took over an entire and cheesemakers in the Americas,” says Nora Weiser, executive di- was up 1.4 percent from the previous June to 354.4 million pounds. street in downtown Madison, rector, ACS. “This diversity of cheese displays the skill and passion of Total Italian-type production, of which Mozzarella is the largest Wisconsin, displaying more American cheesemakers. In taking two top honors, Cellars at Jasper component, was down 0.1 percent from the previous June to 449.7 than two tons of Wisconsin Hill exemplifi es how American artisan cheesemakers seamlessly meld million pounds. In the Italian-type cheese category, production of cheeses from across the a Turn to ACS, page 17 Turn to NASS, page 26 a Turn to TITLE, page 5 a © 2018 CHEESE MARKET NEWS® — This is Cheese Market News’ E-subscription and may not be forwarded to anyone other than the intended paid subscriber without the express permission of Cheese Market News (For more information, contact [email protected]) 2 CHEESE MARKET NEWS® — August 3, 2018 MARKET INDICATORS Chicago Mercantile Exchange Cash prices for the week ended August 3, 2018 CHEESE FUTURES for the week ending Aug. 2, 2018 (Listings for each day by month, settling price and open interest) Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday July 30 July 31 August 1 August 2 August 3 Fri., July 27 Mon., July 30 Tues., July 31 Wed., Aug. 1 Thurs., Aug. 2 JUL18 1.491 3,274 1.491 3,274 1.489 3,277 1.487 4,310 --- --- Cheese Barrels AUG18 1.564 4,153 1.562 4,133 1.547 4,139 1.548 4,141 1.549 4,137 Price $1.4050 $1.4075 $1.4300 $1.4575 $1.4750 SEP18 1.626 3,933 1.624 3,962 1.618 3,966 1.623 3,976 1.621 3,972 Change -11 1/2 +1/4 +2 1/4 +2 3/4 +1 3/4 OCT18 1.678 3,705 1.685 3,694 1.685 3,703 1.692 3,598 1.685 3,611 NOV18 1.676 3,584 1.686 3,584 1.688 3,584 1.697 3,451 1.687 3,449 Cheese 40-lb. Blocks DEC18 1.666 2,939 1.672 2,938 1.674 2,974 1.682 2,968 1.677 2,968 Price $1.5200 $1.5000 $1.5400 $1.5725 $1.5875 JAN19 1.645 810 1.650 815 1.650 823 1.659 828 1.657 829 FEB 19 1.640 724 1.637 732 1.637 735 1.643 744 1.643 747 Change NC -2 +4 +3 1/4 +1 1/2 MAR 19 1.633 745 1.632 751 1.632 754 1.633 765 1.634 765 APR 19 1.654 453 1.651 468 1.648 473 1.647 646 1.648 649 Weekly average (July 30-Aug.