e l ec t i o n 2 0 1 0 The Senate: Wide-Open Field Favors GOP Gains Uncertainty remains plentiful across the national Senate playing field as the campaign starts even though Gov. Steven L. Beshear has endorsed shifting into higher gear. In several cases, party primaries this spring and summer will determine Mongiardo. may remain a Republican the strength of possible takeover campaigns in each party. The fate of others will depend on stronghold in federal elections (John McCain carried whether the electorate’s discontent with the status quo rises or ebbs by November. That eight it with 57 percent), but Beshear won with 59 percent races are currently rated tossups underscores the unsettled dynamic. Three of those contests in 2007, and the state House is solidly Democratic. feature Democratic incumbents (first and foremost among them Majority Leader ), To the extent that national Democrats will be able to and another is for the seat once held by himself. That situation — plus the fact play offense at all this year, this seat will remain one that the Democrats have already fallen into underdog status to hold a pair of seats they have of their best takeover targets. controlled for years, in Delaware and North Dakota — means the chances are almost nonexistent that Democrats can reclaim for the second half of Obama’s term a “-proof” majority of MISSOURI — Open (Christopher S. Bond, R, retiring) 60 or more senators, which they lost with last week’s upset victory by Republican Scott P. Brown 2004: Bond 56%, Nancy Farmer (D) 43% for the seat that had been held for 47 years by Edward M. Kennedy, Of all of the competitive Senate races this year, this is the one where the field seems the most solidly TOSSUPS ILLINOIS — Open set. And in keeping with Missouri’s long history as (Roland W. Burris, D, appointed and retiring) ARKANSAS — Blanche Lincoln, D a bellwether and swing state (McCain prevailed by 2004: Barack Obama (D) 70%, (R) 27% 2004: Lincoln 56%, Jim Holt (R) 44% one-tenth of a percentage point) this could be one Republicans think they have a real shot at picking Polls are showing the two-term incumbent in an unusu- of the marquee congressional campaigns of 2010. up the seat the president himself held from 2005 ally shaky position. In a state where Obama took just Democrats feel very bullish about their prospects, through 2008. The strong favorite for the Feb. 2 GOP 39 percent of the vote, the national Republican Party but Republicans are confident that the year’s politi- primary is Rep. Mark Steven Kirk of the Chicago and its affiliated groups are working to paint Lincoln as cal trend will enable them to keep the seat Bond has suburbs, who during his decade in the House has too liberal for her constituents. Still, that tactic did not held for 24 years. Missouri Secretary of State Robin been one of its most moderate Republicans (he work against her in 2004 (when George W. Bush took Carnahan is the presumed Democratic nominee. backed Obama half the time in floor votes last year). 54 percent in Arkansas), even as it succeeded against For Republicans, Rep. Roy Blunt is seen as the On the Democratic side, the front-runner is state several other Senate Democratic candidates across the leader among the candidates, largely because of his Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, who once was close to South. But the depth of Lincoln’s travails will be tough prominence: He is a former House Republican whip, Obama and the state’s senior senator, Majority Whip to gauge until the GOP picks its challenger May 18. The and his son, Matt Blunt, was the state’s governor Richard J. Durbin. Although Giannoulias is young options include state Sen. Kim Hendren; Tom Cox, an from 2005 through 2009. But GOP officials, who and wealthy, some Democrats fear he could be set organizer of the conservative “tea party” movement; would love to avoid a bloody campaign for the Aug. 3 back by ethics issues and criticism of his handling state Sen. Gilbert Baker, who has some national GOP primary, may not get their way, as state Sen. Chuck of a state program that helps parents save money backing; former state Sen. Jim Holt, who lost to Lincoln Purgason is challenging Blunt for the nomination. for college tuition. Seeking an upset in the primary last time; and food safety services company owner are Cheryle Robinson Jackson, who used to head Curtis Coleman, who’s close to Republican former Gov. — Harry Reid, D the Chicago Urban League; state Inspector General . Last week Rep. John Boozman said he 2004: Reid 61%, Richard Ziser (R) 35% David Hoffman, who is running as a reformer; and might run, too. On the positive side for the incumbent, wealthy attorney Jacob Meister. Democratic officials Republicans will put whatever resources they can Lincoln has a ton of money in the bank, while her are thrilled that Burris decided relatively early in his muster into denying a fifth term to the majority challengers have next to nothing. The fact that she took tenure not to seek election in his own right; the taint leader, who has become politically vulnerable back over last summer as chairwoman of the Agriculture from his appointment — by Gov. Rod R. Blagojevich home by being such a stalwart operative for the Committee could also be politically helpful in a state after his arrest on the Senate-seat-for-sale charges Obama legislative agenda. Republicans portray Reid with a considerable farm economy. that drove him from office — would have surely been as far too for the state, which has become a a millstone on his candidacy and his party. recent presidential bellwether (Obama carried it, as COLORADO — Michael Bennet, D (appointed) did Bush twice). And Reid, whose poll numbers have 2004: Ken Salazar (D) 51%, Pete Coors (R) 47% dropped dramatically in the past year, is struggling Bennet was Denver’s schools chief in January 2009 KENTUCKY — Open (, R, retiring) with the reality that thousands of voters in the when he became the surprise pick to fill the seat 2004: Bunning 51%, (D) 49% ­booming state have arrived since he was last on the vacated when Salazar became Interior secretary. Bunning won both of his Senate elections with ballot and so don’t feel any particular connection But Bennet is a neophyte as a candidate and not narrow majorities, even though the state has been to him. His career would be in even deeper trouble well-known outside the state’s biggest city. That has trending strongly Republican. The Hall of Fame had the GOP done a better job at recruiting. Instead, been painfully evident in polls that show he has not baseball pitcher developed a reputation for alienat- the candidates in the June 8 primary include established a strong identity with the electorate ing voters and colleagues alike with a personality relative lesser-knowns such as former state GOP and is trailing potential GOP foes. One thing in his invariably described as abrasive. So GOP leaders ­Chairwoman , whom some national favor has been the general disarray among Colorado pressed him into retirement this year without even a Republicans are beginning to embrace as their top ­Republicans. For months, they mulled a group of veneer of subtlety. In his place, the party establish- choice; conservative former state Assemblywoman relative unknowns as candidates, but that changed ment anointed Kentucky’s secretary of state, Trey Sharron Angle; , a businessman when former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton jumped into the Grayson. He remains the front-runner in the May whose father is the famed former University of race and became the consensus choice among 18 primary but faces a concerted and well-funded Nevada Las Vegas basketball coach; and state Sen. national party strategists. Bennet’s more immediate effort from a candidate backed by the GOP’s most . Reid had a very healthy $9 million in concern is a competitive Aug. 10 primary against conservative factions: , an eye surgeon his campaign account last fall but has since spent former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, a and son of Rep. of , a prominent heavily on advertising to remind Nevadans of his popular figure statewide. Although he’s a political in- libertarian. Whoever wins will face a formidable efforts for the state — which has done nothing to sider, Romanoff is positioning himself as the outsider opponent in November. The Democratic primary is improve his poll numbers. One more complicating in the race, declaring he won’t raise money from between Lt. Gov. Mongiardo, who barely missed be- factor for the senator: His son, Rory Reid, chose this political action committees connected to businesses. ing elected six years ago, and state Attorney General year to wage a long-shot bid for governor. Obama has endorsed the incumbent. Jack Conway. Conway is emerging as the favorite continued on next page

www.cq.com | January 25, 2010 | CQ WEEKLY 223 c ov e r sto ry

NEW HAMPSHIRE — Open (Judd Gregg, R, retiring) not fully weighed in. Toomey, a former head of the former Rep. Tom Campbell, a centrist who was the 2004: Gregg 66%, Doris Haddock (D) 34% conservative , now has the GOP party’s Senate nominee in 2000, quit the race for Gregg decided not to seek a fourth term after nomination to himself. governor this month to run instead for senator. generating a whirlwind of confusion last year. Days after initially accepting Obama’s offer to be secretary LEAN REPUBLICAN CONNECTICUT — Open (Christopher J. Dodd, D, retiring) of Commerce, Gregg surprised most everyone by 2004: Dodd 66%, Jack Orchulli (R) 32% DELAWARE (partial term) — Open Having become a decided underdog in his race for publicly rejecting the nomination, citing irreconcil- (Ted Kaufman, D, appointed and retiring) able differences over economic policy — then added 2008: Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. (D) 65%, a sixth term, Dodd gave up his quest this month to the surprise by announcing his Senate retirement. Christine O’Donnell (R) 35% — and immediately returned this seat to the deep With New Hampshire Democrats enjoying a resur- blue column. The new Democratic candidate will be From the time he showed up as the appointed succes- gence in recent years, the opening initially looked like ­Richard Blumenthal, who’s remained highly popular as sor to his old boss — the newly elevated vice president a golden opportunity for a pickup by the party, which the state’s attorney general for two decades. Former — Kaufman said he didn’t want the seat for more than quickly rallied behind two-term Rep. Paul W. Hodes Rep. Rob Simmons got into the race early and was two years; the assumption was that he was holding as their prospective nominee. But an improved the initial choice of national GOP leaders. But now it so state Attorney General Beau Biden, a son of the national atmosphere for the GOP has Republicans Linda McMahon, the former CEO of World Wrestling vice president, could complete his Army Reserve duty sounding encouraged that they can hold this seat. Entertainment, may be the more appealing candidate in before laying claim to the seat. But the younger Party operatives are placing most of their hopes on because of her willingness to spend $50 million of her Biden still has not formally announced his candidacy former state Attorney General . But she money on the race. Brokerage firm owner Peter Schiff — allowing all the early momentum to go to Republi- faces a Sept. 14 primary against former state Board is also running and raising lots of money. can Michael N. Castle, the state’s only House member of Education President Ovide Lamontagne, the 1996 since 1992 and governor for eight years before that. GOP candidate for governor. LIKELY REPUBLICAN If Biden does what had been expected and starts cam- paigning, this will be a marquee battle. If not, Castle — Open — Open (George V. Voinovich, R, retiring) will become the presumptive favorite. (George LeMieux, R, appointed and retiring) 2004: Voinovich 64%, Eric D. Fingerhut (D) 36% 2004: Mel Martinez (R) 49%, Betty Castor (D) 48% Economic troubles in this traditionally industrial — , R Gov. Charlie Crist’s entry into the race last May Great Lakes state helped Democrats in 2006 and 2004: Vitter 51%, Chris John (D) 29% appeared to greatly improve the GOP’s chances 2008 reverse what had been a long-running Repub- Three years after the revelation that he patronized a of holding this seat, which Martinez vacated last lican trend. But Ohio’s recession, which took root prostitution ring, Vitter’s once-promising ca- year a few months after announcing his retirement during George W. Bush’s presidency, has continued reer as his state’s first Republican senator since Recon- after a single term. But Crist faces an intense and into the Obama era — fueling Republicans’ hopes for struction remains imperiled. As he seeks a second term, possibly divisive Aug. 24 primary against former a rebound that would enable them to hold on to the most of the state’s GOP leaders, including Gov. Bobby state House Speaker , whose campaign seat Voinovich is relinquishing after two terms. The Jindal, are in his corner. There was a slim possibility that has the ardent support of conservative activists and party is almost certain to nominate Rob Portman, Louisiana Secretary of State Jay Dardenne would enter allied groups such as the Club for Growth. Rubio, the former congressman, U.S. trade representative the Aug. 28 primary, but he opted out on Jan. 19. Rep. who portrays Crist as insufficiently conservative, and budget director. His potential weak- Charlie Melancon is the likely Democratic nominee. With now appears to be staging a very serious challenge. ness is that he held the second two offices under his “good ol’ boy” demeanor and his centrist congres- Rep. Kendrick B. Meek has the inside track on the Bush, whose popularity plummeted in tandem with sional voting record, he’s got as good a shot as anyone in Democratic nomination and would be Florida’s first the state’s economic fortunes. Cleveland auto dealer his party in this increasingly conservative state. African-American senator. Tom Ganley, who has said he’s willing to spend NORTH DAKOTA — Open (Byron L. Dorgan, D, retiring) what’s necessary, will distract Portman during the — Richard M. Burr, R 2004: Dorgan 68%, Mike Liffrig (R) 32% primary season. Meanwhile, Democrats have a pri- 2004: Burr 52%, Erskine Bowles (D) 47% mary between Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and Ohio Secretary Burr is working hard to avoid the fate of seven of the Dorgan’s late-in-the-game retirement announcement of State Jennifer Brunner, and they’re hoping it isn’t past eight North Carolina senators, each of whom transformed this race into one that’s the Republicans’ too divisive. Fisher has the support of most of the served just one term. Unlike fellow Republican to lose. Gov. John Hoeven, who had declined several party establishment, but Brunner, despite lackluster Elizabeth Dole, who was ousted two years ago, Burr past entreaties to run for senator, wasted no time go- fundraising, is hanging on for now. returns to the state often and works hard to stay in ing after the newly opened seat; that he won his third touch with his constituents and the state political term with 74 percent in 2008 is an obvious signal he’ll LEANS DEMOCRATIC establishment. But he was overshadowed by Dole be formidable, especially in a big Republican year. for much of his first term, and job-approval polls The Democrats appear likely to turn to former state — Arlen Specter, D have consistently shown that about a third of voters Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp, who lost a competi- 2004: Specter (R) 53%, Joseph M. Hoeffel (D) 42% don’t know enough about him to have an opinion. tive race for governor to Hoeven in 2000. Specter is a survivor in both the literal and political ­Democrats struggled to find a top-tier challenger sense. Facing an uphill battle in a GOP primary to take on Burr, but the party establishment now SAFE DEMOCRATIC against former Rep. Patrick J. Toomey, an activist appears settled on backing former state Sen. Cal HAWAII — Daniel K. Inouye, D conservative who nearly ousted him in the 2004 Cunningham, an attorney and veteran. primary, Specter left the Republican Party last April 2004: Inouye 76%, Cam Cavasso (R) 21% First elected in the third year of Hawaii statehood, and vowed to seek his sixth term as a Democrat. LIKELY DEMOCRATIC Win or lose, this could be the political last hurrah for the second-most senior senator will turn 86 two Specter, who turns 80 next month and has battled CALIFORNIA — , D months before Election Day. Unless his health fails Hodgkin’s lymphoma, although he has shown no 2004: Boxer 58%, Bill Jones (R) 38% badly between now and then, the Appropriations signs of slowing down. But he will have to fight hard Carly Fiorina, the former Hewlett-Packard CEO, is chairman appears politically untouchable. to hold the seat, first in a May 18 primary against the front-runner for the Republican nomination and two-term Rep. Joe Sestak, who says he’s running would have no trouble raising the millions necessary INDIANA — Evan Bayh, D as the true Democrat in the race and relishing his to combat Boxer’s bid for a fourth term. But Fiorina 2004: Bayh 62%, Marvin B. Scott (R) 37%

hardly has the June 8 primary field to herself. State phic

underdog role. (The White House and the national A statewide officeholder for all but two of the past 26 a r

Democratic establishment are all-in for Specter.) Assemblyman Chuck DeVore is running with support years, Bayh’s popularity is rock solid in his bid for a g Organized labor, a pivotal force in the state, has among movement conservatives and populists. And third term. And he’s taken steps to move away from cq

224 CQ WEEKLY | October 27, 2008 | www.cq.com NXj_% elecTiOn 2010 Dfek% E%;% D`ee% DX`e\ Fi\% Obama and slightly toward the Mk% E%?% right in a state that remains closely J%;% N`j% DXjj% — @[X_f Npf% E%P%! politically divided. Still, Republican :Xc`]% D`Z_% Michael D. Crapo, R @fnX GX% I%@% E\m% :fee% 2004: Crapo unopposed Rep. Mike Pence, a favorite of E\Y% @cc% @e[% F_`f E%A% grass-roots conservative activists, LkX_ :fcf% A dozen years ago, this seat Df% ;\c% recently decided to test the BXe% N%MX% MX% D[% was open and Crapo won it by waters and could make this race Bp% 40 points. Last time, the Demo- much more interesting. 8i`q% E%:% crats didn’t even field a challenger. E%D% FbcX% K\ee% 8ib% This time, the national GOP tide and >X% J%:% — Barbara A. Mikulski, D D`jj% 8cX% the state’s Republican tilt guarantee 2004: Mikulski 65%, E.J. Pipkin (R) 34% K\oXj CX% another shoo-in. 8cXjbX The senior woman in the Senate =cX% has had a firm grasp on her seat IOWA — Charles E. Grassley, R ?XnX`` since she first won in 1986. As she 2004: Grassley 70%, Arthur Small (D) 28% bids for a fifth term, possible GOP Grassley has won with ease ever since his sacrificial lambs are Queen Anne’s County Commis- first election in 1980; he’s on course to secure his fifth term without much trouble sioner Eric Wargotz and attorney Jim Rutledge. -+j\Xkj )'jX]\ (-Zfdg\k`k`m\ leZfek\jk\[ 0;#((I 0;#.I soon after his 77th birthday, although Democrats NEW YORK (partial term) — *0;#)*I#)@ profess some hope in Roxanne Conlin, a lawyer who Kirsten Gillibrand, D (appointed) ran for governor 28 years ago. 2006: Sen. H.R. Clinton (D) 67%, John Spencer (R) 31% /kfjjlgj *c\XeI\glYc`ZXe (c\Xej;\dfZiXk`Z The special election to fill this seat for the next two years KANSAS — Open )c`b\cpI\glYc`ZXe )c`b\cp;\dfZiXk`Z is destined to go Democratic; every big-name Repub- (, R, running for governor) ((jX]\I\glYc`ZXe 0 jX]\;\dfZiXk`Z 2004: Brownback 69%, Lee Jones (D) 27.5% lican has given it a pass. Gillibrand, the sometimes- JkXk\j`e^iXp_Xm\efZfek\jkk_`jp\Xi centrist upstate congresswoman tapped when Clinton The only contest here is which veteran Republican became secretary of State, remains the solid favorite to !9fk_j\Xkj`eE\nPfibXi\Y\`e^Zfek\jk\[% congressman, seventh-termer Jerry Moran or eighth- hold the Democratic line on the ballot even if the more termer Todd Tiahrt, wins the hotly contested Aug. 3 conservative former Rep. Harold E. Ford Jr., a New York Senate primary. No Democrat has won a Senate banker and media pundit since losing his 2006 Senate and he’s unlikely to be challenged credibly for a election in the state since 1932. race back home in Tennessee, goes through with his fourth term unless former Gov. Tommy G. Thompson, contemplated September primary challenge. George W. Bush’s first health secretary, makes an — Tom Coburn, R unlikely move to come out of retirement for the race. 2004: Coburn 53%, (D) 41% NEW YORK — Charles E. Schumer, D Coburn, a politically mercurial conservative, ended 2004: Schumer 71%, Howard Mills (R) 24% SAFE REPUBLICAN any mystery about this race when he declared his bid for a second term last summer. The state’s trend Whatever excitement attends to the state’s other ALABAMA — Richard C. Shelby, R Senate race doesn’t touch Schumer; the No. 3 leader 2004: Shelby 68%, Wayne Sowell (D) 32% is decidedly Republican. in his caucus already has $17 million to spend as he A senator for 24 years, the top Republican on the — Jim DeMint, R cruises toward his third term. Banking Committee has a vast campaign treasury, 2004: DeMint 54%, (D) 44% his past three re-elections were landslides and — Ron Wyden, D there’s no plausible Democratic challenger in sight. DeMint, who’s positioning himself as a favorite 2004: Wyden 63%, Al King (R) 32% of conservatives aligned with the “tea party” movement, will likely have no trouble claiming a third Oregon’s GOP leaders have talked wistfully about — Lisa Murkowski, R term against either Democratic aspirant: former Ford recruiting Gordon H. Smith, who lost the state’s other 2004: Murkowski 49%, Tony Knowles (D) 46% manager Mike Ruckes or attorney Chad McGowan. Senate seat two years ago. But he’s not expected to With all of Alaska’s political attention on the gover- take on his friend Wyden, who’s seeking his third full nor’s race, and with Murkowski having vanquished SOUTH DAKOTA — John Thune, R term as the state’s most popular politician. a top Democratic recruit six years ago, it’s hard to 2004: Thune 51%, Sen. Tom Daschle (D) 49% think of anyone capable of denying her a second full Thune remains a hero to his party for knocking off VERMONT — Patrick J. Leahy, D term in this strongly GOP-tilted state. Daschle, the Democrats’ Senate leader, six years ago 2004: Leahy 71%, John “Jack” McMullen (R) 24.5% and is also drawing increased conservative buzz be- The Judiciary Committee chairman has become so — John McCain, R cause he’s not waving off talk of a 2012 presidential comfortably entrenched back home, and the state’s 2004: McCain 77%, Stuart Starky (D) 21% bid. In the meantime, he’s a lock for a second term. lean is so clearly leftward that no GOP challenger of None of the potential top-tier Democratic challeng- note is opposing his bid for a seventh term. ers are showing signs they’ll go after the 2008 GOP UTAH — Robert F. Bennett, R presidential nominee, who is seeking a fifth term. 2004: Bennett 69%, R. Paul Van Dam (D) 28% WASHINGTON — Patty Murray, D But McCain will have to mount a credible campaign The Republican candidate is a safe bet for 2004: Murray 55%, George Nethercutt (R) 43% to win the Aug. 24 primary against Chris Simcox, a November, but several people want to deny that Republicans in the state have made noise about founder of the Minuteman anti-immigration group, nomination to the three-term incumbent, who’s recruiting a top-tier challenger, either state Attorney and probably also former Rep. J.D. Hayworth. drawn the ire of the Club for Growth for his General Rob McKenna or center-leaning Rep. Dave consensus-building approach within the leader- Reichert. But unless either pulls the trigger, Murray is — Johnny Isakson, R ship. Attorney Mike Lee is an emerging favorite of a safe bet for a fourth term. 2004: Isakson 58%, Denise L. Majette (D) 40% national conservative groups; other aspirants are Isakson had become a familiar, folksy figure in venture capitalist Tim Bridgewater, businesswoman — , D Georgia long before his election as senator, and he’s Cherilyn Eager and businessman James Williams. 2004: Feingold 55%, Tim Michels (R) 44% been aggressively bankrolling his second-term bid. The primary is June 22, but the state GOP nominat- CQ gRaPHIC Feingold’s margin six years ago was his biggest yet, Democrats have no obviously credible challenger. ing process is pretty convoluted.

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