ELEC T I O N 2 0 1 0 The Senate: Wide-Open Field Favors GOP Gains Uncertainty remains plentiful across the national Senate playing field as the campaign starts even though Gov. Steven L. Beshear has endorsed shifting into higher gear. In several cases, party primaries this spring and summer will determine Mongiardo. Kentucky may remain a Republican the strength of possible takeover campaigns in each party. The fate of others will depend on stronghold in federal elections (John McCain carried whether the electorate’s discontent with the status quo rises or ebbs by November. That eight it with 57 percent), but Beshear won with 59 percent races are currently rated tossups underscores the unsettled dynamic. Three of those contests in 2007, and the state House is solidly Democratic. feature Democratic incumbents (first and foremost among them Majority Leader Harry Reid), To the extent that national Democrats will be able to and another is for the seat once held by Barack Obama himself. That situation — plus the fact play offense at all this year, this seat will remain one that the Democrats have already fallen into underdog status to hold a pair of seats they have of their best takeover targets. controlled for years, in Delaware and North Dakota — means the chances are almost nonexistent that Democrats can reclaim for the second half of Obama’s term a “filibuster-proof” majority of MISSOURI — Open (Christopher S. Bond, R, retiring) 60 or more senators, which they lost with last week’s upset victory by Republican Scott P. Brown 2004: Bond 56%, Nancy Farmer (D) 43% for the Massachusetts seat that had been held for 47 years by Edward M. Kennedy, Of all of the competitive Senate races this year, this is the one where the field seems the most solidly TOSSUPS ILLINOIS — Open set. And in keeping with Missouri’s long history as (Roland W. Burris, D, appointed and retiring) ARKANSAS — Blanche Lincoln, D a bellwether and swing state (McCain prevailed by 2004: Barack Obama (D) 70%, Alan Keyes (R) 27% 2004: Lincoln 56%, Jim Holt (R) 44% one-tenth of a percentage point) this could be one Republicans think they have a real shot at picking Polls are showing the two-term incumbent in an unusu- of the marquee congressional campaigns of 2010. up the seat the president himself held from 2005 ally shaky position. In a state where Obama took just Democrats feel very bullish about their prospects, through 2008. The strong favorite for the Feb. 2 GOP 39 percent of the vote, the national Republican Party but Republicans are confident that the year’s politi- primary is Rep. Mark Steven Kirk of the Chicago and its affiliated groups are working to paint Lincoln as cal trend will enable them to keep the seat Bond has suburbs, who during his decade in the House has too liberal for her constituents. Still, that tactic did not held for 24 years. Missouri Secretary of State Robin been one of its most moderate Republicans (he work against her in 2004 (when George W. Bush took Carnahan is the presumed Democratic nominee. backed Obama half the time in floor votes last year). 54 percent in Arkansas), even as it succeeded against For Republicans, Rep. Roy Blunt is seen as the On the Democratic side, the front-runner is state several other Senate Democratic candidates across the leader among the candidates, largely because of his Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, who once was close to South. But the depth of Lincoln’s travails will be tough prominence: He is a former House Republican whip, Obama and the state’s senior senator, Majority Whip to gauge until the GOP picks its challenger May 18. The and his son, Matt Blunt, was the state’s governor Richard J. Durbin. Although Giannoulias is young options include state Sen. Kim Hendren; Tom Cox, an from 2005 through 2009. But GOP officials, who and wealthy, some Democrats fear he could be set organizer of the conservative “tea party” movement; would love to avoid a bloody campaign for the Aug. 3 back by ethics issues and criticism of his handling state Sen. Gilbert Baker, who has some national GOP primary, may not get their way, as state Sen. Chuck of a state program that helps parents save money backing; former state Sen. Jim Holt, who lost to Lincoln Purgason is challenging Blunt for the nomination. for college tuition. Seeking an upset in the primary last time; and food safety services company owner are Cheryle Robinson Jackson, who used to head Curtis Coleman, who’s close to Republican former Gov. NEVADA — Harry Reid, D the Chicago Urban League; state Inspector General Mike Huckabee. Last week Rep. John Boozman said he 2004: Reid 61%, Richard Ziser (R) 35% David Hoffman, who is running as a reformer; and might run, too. On the positive side for the incumbent, wealthy attorney Jacob Meister. Democratic officials Republicans will put whatever resources they can Lincoln has a ton of money in the bank, while her are thrilled that Burris decided relatively early in his muster into denying a fifth term to the majority challengers have next to nothing. The fact that she took tenure not to seek election in his own right; the taint leader, who has become politically vulnerable back over last summer as chairwoman of the Agriculture from his appointment — by Gov. Rod R. Blagojevich home by being such a stalwart operative for the Committee could also be politically helpful in a state after his arrest on the Senate-seat-for-sale charges Obama legislative agenda. Republicans portray Reid with a considerable farm economy. that drove him from office — would have surely been as far too partisan for the state, which has become a a millstone on his candidacy and his party. recent presidential bellwether (Obama carried it, as COLORADO — Michael Bennet, D (appointed) did Bush twice). And Reid, whose poll numbers have 2004: Ken Salazar (D) 51%, Pete Coors (R) 47% dropped dramatically in the past year, is struggling Bennet was Denver’s schools chief in January 2009 KENTUCKY — Open (Jim Bunning, R, retiring) with the reality that thousands of voters in the when he became the surprise pick to fill the seat 2004: Bunning 51%, Daniel Mongiardo (D) 49% booming state have arrived since he was last on the vacated when Salazar became Interior secretary. Bunning won both of his Senate elections with ballot and so don’t feel any particular connection But Bennet is a neophyte as a candidate and not narrow majorities, even though the state has been to him. His career would be in even deeper trouble well-known outside the state’s biggest city. That has trending strongly Republican. The Hall of Fame had the GOP done a better job at recruiting. Instead, been painfully evident in polls that show he has not baseball pitcher developed a reputation for alienat- the candidates in the June 8 primary include established a strong identity with the electorate ing voters and colleagues alike with a personality relative lesser-knowns such as former state GOP and is trailing potential GOP foes. One thing in his invariably described as abrasive. So GOP leaders Chairwoman Sue Lowden, whom some national favor has been the general disarray among Colorado pressed him into retirement this year without even a Republicans are beginning to embrace as their top Republicans. For months, they mulled a group of veneer of subtlety. In his place, the party establish- choice; conservative former state Assemblywoman relative unknowns as candidates, but that changed ment anointed Kentucky’s secretary of state, Trey Sharron Angle; Danny Tarkanian, a businessman when former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton jumped into the Grayson. He remains the front-runner in the May whose father is the famed former University of race and became the consensus choice among 18 primary but faces a concerted and well-funded Nevada Las Vegas basketball coach; and state Sen. national party strategists. Bennet’s more immediate effort from a candidate backed by the GOP’s most Mark Amodei. Reid had a very healthy $9 million in concern is a competitive Aug. 10 primary against conservative factions: Rand Paul, an eye surgeon his campaign account last fall but has since spent former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, a and son of Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, a prominent heavily on advertising to remind Nevadans of his popular figure statewide. Although he’s a political in- libertarian. Whoever wins will face a formidable efforts for the state — which has done nothing to sider, Romanoff is positioning himself as the outsider opponent in November. The Democratic primary is improve his poll numbers. One more complicating in the race, declaring he won’t raise money from between Lt. Gov. Mongiardo, who barely missed be- factor for the senator: His son, Rory Reid, chose this political action committees connected to businesses. ing elected six years ago, and state Attorney General year to wage a long-shot bid for governor. Obama has endorsed the incumbent. Jack Conway. Conway is emerging as the favorite continued on next page www.cq.com | JAnuARY 25, 2010 | CQ WEEKLY 223 C OV E R sto RY NEW HAMPSHIRE — Open (Judd Gregg, R, retiring) not fully weighed in. Toomey, a former head of the former Rep. Tom Campbell, a centrist who was the 2004: Gregg 66%, Doris Haddock (D) 34% conservative Club for Growth, now has the GOP party’s Senate nominee in 2000, quit the race for Gregg decided not to seek a fourth term after nomination to himself. governor this month to run instead for senator.