Missile Developments BALLISTIC, CRUISE MISSILE, AND MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEMS: TRADE AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS, NOVEMBER 1995-JANUARY 1996

CONTENTS

OVERVIEW, 135 CHILE GERMANY ISRAEL with with Internal Developments, 145 AFGHANISTAN Argentina, 137 Eastern Europe, France and with with Canada, Malaysia, Iraq, 138 Italy, PRC, and Russia, 145 Tajikistan, 137 Mauritius, Philippines, and United Nations, 140 Russia, 145 ARGENTINA Vietnam, 138 South Korea, 146 INDIA with Switzerland, 146 CYPRUS Internal Developments, 140 Chile, 137 Syria, 146 with with United States, 146 AUSTRALIA Turkey and United States, 138 Pakistan, 141 with Pakistan and United ITALY EASTERN EUROPE Russia, 137 States, 141 with with Russia, 142 France and United France, Germany, and AUSTRIA Kingdom, 139 Iraq, 138 IRAN with Israel, PRC, and Russia, 145 Iraq, Jordan, and Internal Developments, 142 ECUADOR Pakistan, PRC, and Russia, 137 with with Russia, 147 PRC, 143 Peru, 139 BELARUS Russia, 143 JAPAN United Kingdom, 139 with Internal Developments, 147 Russia, 137 IRAQ EGYPT with Sudan, 137 Internal Developments, 143 with PRC, 147 with United States, 139 United States, 147 BELGIUM Austria, Jordan, and with FRANCE Russia, 137 JORDAN Iraq, South Africa, United with Belgium, South Africa, with Kingdom, and United Eastern Europe, Germany, United Kingdom and Austria, Iraq, and Russia, 137 States, 137 and Iraq, 139 United States, 137 Iraq, 144 BULGARIA Italy and United Kingdom, 139 Eastern Europe, France, Iraq and Russia, 144 Internal Developments, 138 Kuwait, 139 and Germany, 138 Iraq, Russia, and United with Malaysia, 139 Jordan, 144 States, 145 Russia, 139 Jordan and Russia, 144 Peru, 138 KAZAKSTAN Taiwan, 140 Jordan, Russia, and United with CANADA United Arab Emirates, 140 States, 145 Russia, 148 with Russia, 145 Chile, Malaysia, Mauritius, Russia and United States, 148 Philippines, and Vietnam, 138

The Nonproliferation Review/Spring-Summer 1996 133 Missile Developments

KUWAIT RUSSIA TAIWAN Israel, 146 with Internal Developments, 154 Internal Developments, 158 Japan, 147 France, 139 with with Kazakstan and Russia, 148 Russia, 148 Australia, 137 France, 140 North Korea, 149 Austria, Iraq, and PRC, 152 PRC, 154 MALAYSIA Jordan, 137 PRC and United States, 153 PRC and Taiwan, 153 Internal Developments, 149 Belarus, 137 United States, 158 Russia, 156 with France, 139 South Korea, 157 Canada, Chile, Mauritius, THAILAND India, 142 Taiwan, 158 Philippines, and Vietnam, 138 with Iran, 143 Thailand, 159 France, 139 United States, 159 Iraq, 145 Turkey, 159 South Africa, 149 Iraq and Jordan, 144 TURKEY Ukraine, 160 United Kingdom, 149 Iraq, Jordan, and United with United Arab Emirates, 160 NORTH KOREA States, 145 Cyprus and United VIETNAM Internal Developments, 149 Israel, 145 States, 138 with with Israel, Italy, and PRC, 145 United States, 159 Canada, Chile, Malaysia, United States, 149 Italy, Pakistan, and Mauritius, and PRC, 147 UKRAINE Philippines, 138 OMAN Kazakstan, 148 Internal Developments, 159 with with Kazakstan and United YEMEN United Kingdom, 149 PRC, 153 States, 148 Internal Developments, 161 Russia, 155 PAKISTAN Kuwait, 148 United States, 160 Internal Developments, 149 PRC, 151 with South Korea, 155 UNITED ARAB EMIRATES India, 144 Ukraine, 155 Internal Developments, 160 India and United States, 144 United States, 156 with Italy, PRC, and Russia, 147 SOUTH AFRICA France, 140 United Kingdom, 160 PERU Internal Developments, 157 United States, 160 Internal Developments, 150 with with Belgium, Iraq, United UNITED KINGDOM Bulgaria, 138 Kingdom, and United Belgium, Iraq, South Ecuador, 139 States, 137 Africa, and United Malaysia, 149 States, 137 PRC Ecuador, 139 Internal Developments, 150 SOUTH KOREA France and Italy, 139 with with Malaysia, 149 Iran, 143 Israel, 146 Oman, 149 Israel, Italy, and Russia, 145 Russia, 155 United Arab Emirates, 160 Italy, Pakistan, and United States, 157 Russia, 147 SPAIN UNITED NATIONS Japan, 147 with with Russia, 151 PRC, 151 Germany, 140 Spain, 151 UNITED STATES Taiwan, 152 SWITZERLAND Internal Developments, 161 Taiwan and United with with States, 153 Israel, 146 Belgium, Iraq, South Ukraine, 153 SYRIA Africa, and United United States, 153 with Kingdom, 137 Israel, 146 Cyprus and Turkey, 138 Egypt, 139 India and Pakistan, 141 Iraq, Jordan, and Russia, 145

134 The Nonproliferation Review/Spring-Summer 1996 Missile Developments

OVERVIEW

The acquisition, development, and deployment activities In reaction to the perceived missile threat from Iraq of India and Iraq dominated the missile proliferation head- and other states in the Middle East, the United States lines between November 1995 and January 1996. Specula- agreed to jointly fund Israel’s Arrow-2 ATBM system tion over India’s potential stationing of nuclear-capable for an additional five years; the United States and Israel missiles along its border with Pakistan intensified due to will contribute $200 and $300 million respectively. U.S.- reports that the 150 km-range Prithvi-1 SSM was nearing Israeli cooperation in the missile defense field is sched- deployment. This was sustained by India’s Bharatiya Janata uled to include a boost-phase-intercept (BPI) element in Party (BJP), which pressured Prime Minister Narasimha the near future, which envisages the use of interceptor Rao’s ruling Congress Party to establish a strong position on missiles mounted on board UAVs and/or manned air- defense issues—including the testing and deployment of the craft to shoot down enemy ballistic missiles in their boost Prithvi SSM—in the run-up to the country’s general elec- phase. Cyprus also announced that it was contemplating tions in April and May. The successful test-flight of a 250 the acquisition of ATBM and other missile systems in km-range Prithvi-2 SSM at the Defense Research and De- response to the Clinton administration’s decision to pro- velopment Organization’s (DRDO) Interim Test Range did vide Turkey with 160 km-range Army Tactical Missile little to quell this conjecture. Although Islamabad described Systems (ATACMS). The White House defended the the test of this “Pakistan-specific” missile as an ominous transfer by citing Turkey’s proximity to potentially hos- development that will contribute to instability in the region, tile states such as Iran and Iraq, while the U.S. State New Delhi claimed that Pakistani and international criti- Department claimed ATACMS would not be used against cism of the trial was an overreaction. India’s missile pro- Cyprus because the transfer included significant con- gram also progressed with the successful test-flight of a tractual constraints to restrict such usage. Trishul anti-aircraft SAM; the Trishul might also have an Developments elsewhere also illustrated the growing anti-missile capability because of its short reaction time be- saliency of missile defenses. Despite China’s publica- tween target detection and launch. tion of a “White Paper on Arms Control and Disarma- In the Middle East, Iraq persevered with its efforts to ment,” in which the nuclear powers were warned against acquire U.N.-proscribed, missile-related components and selling “guided missile defense systems” to China’s manufacturing technology from companies in Europe. neighbors, several East Asian nations demonstrated their Baghdad’s illicit procurement strategy was typified by the increasing commitment to the acquisition of missile de- interception in Jordan of an estimated $25 million shipment fenses. The Japanese Defense Agency (JDA) allocated of 115 Russian-made gyroscopes en route to Iraq. Although $2.85 million for concept studies on the research and the Russian government denied vehemently any involvement development of a theater missile defense (TMD) system in the shipment, U.S. Representative Curt Weldon requested with the United States. As a hedge against the perceived an investigation by the Clinton administration to determine missile threat from North Korea, South Korea was whether Moscow had violated its membership in the Missile eyeing the Russian S-300 air-defense system. Taiwan Technology Control Regime (MTCR). Inside Iraq, also forged ahead with its deployment of the indigenously- UNSCOM (United Nations Special Commission in Iraq) re- produced Sky Bow-1 SAM system and the development ported that it could only account for 70 of the engines from of its successor, the Sky Bow-2. the 80 Scud-type propulsion systems that Iraq produced be- In the United States, the Republican-controlled Con- fore the Gulf War (53 of which are now inoperable). In light gress took issue with a CIA estimate that downplayed of these developments, UNSCOM Chief Rolf Ekeus asserted the potential threat posed to North America by North that Iraq’s declarations regarding its missile program re- Korean and Iranian ballistic missile programs. Repub- main incomplete and inaccurate. Indeed, an Israel Defense lican critics characterized the estimate as a politically- Force (IDF) report asserted that Iraq’s arsenal will probably motivated ploy by the White House to undermine support include 10 Scud launchers and approximately 150 Scud mis- for a national missile defense system. Meanwhile, the siles by the year 2000. Clinton administration engaged Pyongyang in talks aimed

The Nonproliferation Review/Spring-Summer 1996 135 Missile Developments at ending North Korean missile exports. The administra- tion also continued in its dialogue with Seoul regarding South Korea’s desire to abrogate its agreement with the United States to refrain from developing missiles with ranges exceeding 180 km and its possible membership in the MTCR.

Wyn Bowen and Holly Porteous

NOTE: A date marked with an “*” indicates that an event was reported on that date; a date without an “*” is the date when an event actually occurred. The numbers listed in parentheses following the biblio- graphic references refer to the identification number of the document in the CNS Missile Database from which the news summaries are abstracted. Because of the rapidly changing nature of the subject matter, The Nonprolifera- tion Review is unable to guarantee that the information reported herein is complete or accurate, and disclaims li- ability to any party for any loss or damage caused by er- rors or omissions.

136 The Nonproliferation Review/Spring-Summer 1996 Missile Developments

boosters—derived from former Soviet S- country ahead of schedule, two missile di- 25 ICBMs—to launch 600 kg commercial visions and 18 long-range nuclear missiles AFGHANISTAN and scientific payloads. Australia Subma- remain in Belarus. According to Igor rine Engineering would be responsible for Sergeyev, commander of Russia’s strate- the launch support equipment. Although gic missile forces, Moscow has withdrawn STC would provide initial program sup- 71 of 89 missiles and seven of nine missile AFGHANISTAN WITH TAJIKISTAN port, the technology involved would even- divisions from Belarus. Sergeyev says four tually be transferred to Australia of the missile regiments that have already 12/5/95 Submarine Engineering. The LEO satel- been withdrawn from Belarus are now in Zafar Saidov, press secretary to the Tajik lite launch program would become part of combat service in Russia. Moscow’s re- president, says his government told Darko the Australian Space Launch Service, maining strategic missiles in Belarus will Silovic, the head of the U.N. Observer Mis- which may commence in 1997. The Rus- be withdrawn by 9/96. sion in Dushanbe, that Tajik border bases sian Cosmos Group has also approached Interfax (Moscow), 12/8/95; in FBIS-SOV-95-237, have been bombarded with “‘jet missiles” Australian companies to discuss launch- 12/8/95 (5876). Interfax (Moscow), 12/9/95; in FBIS-SOV-95-237, 12/9/95 (5876). from Afghan territory almost every day ing Start rockets from Woomera or an al- since 12/1/95. ternative site in northern Australia. BELARUS WITH SUDAN Interfax (Moscow), 12/5/95; in FBIS-SOV-95-233, Flight International, 1/24/96-1/30/96, p. 22 (5839). 12/5/95 (5711). 11/20/95* A transport plane carrying Belarusian air- AUSTRIA to-surface missiles departs for Sudan from ARGENTINA Brest. Informatsionnoye Agentstvo Ekho Moskvy (Mos- cow), 11/20/95; in FBIS-SOV-95-223, 11/20/95 (5697). AUSTRIA WITH IRAQ, JORDAN, AND ARGENTINA WITH CHILE RUSSIA

11/5/95 11/95 BELGIUM Argentine Defense Minister Oscar Jordan intercepts a shipment of 115 Rus- Camilion says Argentina and Chile have sian-made gyroscopes and accelerometers conducted high-level consultations on mili- en route to Iraq, which may have been ar- tary issues such as Chile’s Rayo missile and ranged by Austrian middlemen. Accord- BELGIUM WITH IRAQ, SOUTH AFRICA, Argentina’s Condor missile. Camilion says ing to “well informed sources,” the UNITED KINGDOM, AND UNITED STATES Argentina has stopped producing the 160 components are designed for use in long- km-range Alacran and the 600 km-range range missiles, although they could also 1/22/96 Condor missiles. be used in medium-range missiles to ob- Patricio Gonzalez, El Mercurio (Santiago), 11/6/ A South African court decides that Paul 95, p. C10; in FBIS-LAT-95-223, 11/6/95 (5700). tain greater accuracy. It is not known Grecian, a U.K. arms dealer wanted in the whether the items were intended for the U.S. on charges of supplying Iraq with SSM which Iraq is attempting to derive weapons material prior to the 1991 Gulf from SA-2 SAM technology. War, will face an extradition hearing on AUSTRALIA Alan George, Flight International, 1/3/96-1/9/96, 2/16/96. Grecian’s application for bail was p. 17 (5909). denied on 12/22/95. Interpol agents appre- hended the former British spy on a U.S. warrant when he arrived in South Africa AUSTRALIA WITH RUSSIA BELARUS for a vacation with his fiancee. Grecian faces a possible 25 year jail term in the 1/96 U.S. for committing fraud, perjury, and Russia’s Scientific Technical Complex trading U.S. artillery fuses to Iraq. In 11/ (STC) and Australia Submarine Engineer- BELARUS WITH RUSSIA 95, Grecian was cleared of similar charges ing agree to conduct a feasibility study on in the U.K. after the British government establishing a commercial launch service Early 12/95 admitted it had approved his actions in re- for low-earth-orbit (LEO) satellites at the Belarusian President Alyaksandr turn for data on “Iraq’s war plans.” Ac- Woomera Rocket Range in South Austra- Lukashenka says that while Russian mis- cording to the U.S. charges, Grecian and lia. The service would use Russian Start sile divisions are being removed from his his company Ordnance Technology Ltd.

The Nonproliferation Review/Spring-Summer 1996 137 Missile Developments agreed to supply Iraq, in the late 1980s, oned for a period of no less than five years. with a facility capable of manufacturing Fines of up to 500,000 leva can also be 600,000 artillery fuses per year. Grecian imposed. The act will take effect in 1/96 CYPRUS is also accused of acquiring fuse compo- and falls under the jurisdiction of the Coun- nents for Iraq from the U.S. firm Rexon cil of Ministers, which will establish imple- by fraudulently identifying Jordan as the mentation regulations by 2/96. end-user. Grecian also collaborated previ- Bulgarian Business News (Sofia), 12/4/95-12/10/ CYPRUS WITH TURKEY AND UNITED ously with the Belgian firm Space Research 95, 12/11/95-12/17/95; in FBIS-EEU-96-012, 1/ STATES 18/96 (5886). Corporation, which assisted Iraq in the con- struction of a supergun that was potentially 12/19/95* BULGARIA WITH PERU capable of firing a projectile into space. Cyprus registers a complaint with the State Space Research Corporation terminated all 1/8/96* Department over the U.S. sale of Army of its contracts with Baghdad in 1990 fol- Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to Bulgaria provides Peru with 288 missiles lowing the murder of its chief executive in Turkey and requests guarantees from “‘with a range of 20 km” and “10 missile Belgium. Washington that the missiles will not be launching pads.” Ingeborg Lichtenberg, Washington Post, 1/23/96, used against Cyprus. Nicholas Burns, p. A9 (5935). EFE (Madrid), 1/8/96; in FBIS-LAT-96-008, 1/8/ 96 (5670). spokesman for the State Department, says the ATACMS agreement with Turkey in- cludes “substantial contractual restrictions” BULGARIA which limit such usage. CANADA Reuter, 12/19/95; in Executive News Service, 12/ 20/95 (5840). Charlie Kharalambous, Cyprus Mail (Nicosia), 12/28/95, p. 3; in FBIS-TAC-96-002, 12/28/95 (5840). INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS CANADA WITH CHILE, MALAYSIA, 12/28/95* 11/21/95 MAURITIUS, PHILIPPINES, AND VIETNAM Cyprus contemplates purchasing anti-mis- The Bulgarian Government publishes the sile systems and “multimissile systems with “Foreign Trade in Arms and in Potential 12/18/96* improved strike capability” to defend Dual-Use Goods and Technologies Control Rear Admiral Jorge Swett Brown, direc- against Turkey’s U.S.-supplied ATACMS. Act” in its Official Gazette. The new ex- tor of the Chilean Navy’s Astilleros y Reuter, 12/19/95; in Executive News Service, 12/ Maestranzas de la Armada (ASMAR) ship- 20/95 (5840). Charlie Kharalambous, Cyprus Mail port control act is designed to regulate (Nicosia), 12/28/95, p. 3; in FBIS-TAC-96-002, Bulgaria’s trade in goods and technology yard, says ASMAR’s Guardian class 12/28/95 (5840). that could be used in the “development, coastal defense vessel will be marketed to production, processing, design, control, Asia-Pacific countries such as Malaysia, maintenance, storage, or proliferation of Mauritius, the Philippines, and Vietnam. chemical, biological, and nuclear weap- ASMAR developed the Guardian class ves- EASTERN EUROPE ons,” or in the “design, production, main- sel with the Western Canada Marine tenance or storage of missiles” capable of Group. The Guardian vessel can be delivering weapons of mass destruction. equipped with various missile systems. David Pugliese, Defense News, 12/18/95-12/24/95, EASTERN EUROPE WITH FRANCE, Foreign trade is subject to control in order p. 8 (5860). to protect “the national security and exter- GERMANY, AND IRAQ nal interests of Bulgaria,” to build “inter- national confidence and stability,” and to 1/3/96* honor Bulgaria’s “international commit- CHILE U.N. officials assert that companies from ments.” The act obliges all entities trading Eastern Europe, France, and Germany are in controlled items to “keep a separate reg- continuing to supply Iraq with proscribed ister of any transactions which are con- military items. U.S. sources claim that ducted” and to inform “the competent CHILE WITH: since 1990, European firms have supplied public authorities” if there is a chance that Argentina, 137 Iraq with missile guidance systems, ad- dual-use goods and technologies could be Canada, Malaysia, Mauritius, vanced machine tools, and a specialized put to a proscribed end-use. The act also Philippines, and Vietnam, 138 industrial furnace used to manufacture stipulates that arms import or export con- missile components for Scud-type missiles. tracts must include “end-use” guarantees. Iraq’s procurement effort appears to be Violators of the new act will be impris- connected with its Ababil-100 project to

138 The Nonproliferation Review/Spring-Summer 1996 Missile Developments produce 100-150 km-range SSMs. armed” 2,000 ton corvettes. The Kuwaiti James Bruce, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 1/3/96, pp. Navy wants to arm the corvettes with mis- 15, 18-19 (5847). FRANCE siles such as the MM-40 Exocet ASM. Giovanni de Briganti , Defense News, 11/6/95, p. 6, (5888). Jacques Isnard, Le Monde (Paris), 1/13/ 96, p. 5; in FBIS-TAC-96-001, 1/13/96 (5888). ECUADOR Alexandra Schwartzbrod, Liberation (Paris), 1/6/ FRANCE WITH: 96, p. 18; in FBIS- TAC-96-001, 1/6/96 (5888). Eastern Europe, Germany, and Iraq, 138 1/14/96-1/15/96 FRANCE WITH ITALY AND UNITED Defense Minister Millon offers to provide ECUADOR WITH PERU KINGDOM regional satellite imagery to Kuwait if it 12/16/95 purchases $200 million worth of ASMs 12/21/95 from France. Ecuador’s State Communications National Space News, 1/22/96-1/28/96, p. 2 (5903). Secretariat (Senacom) claims Peru is in- France and Italy sign an agreement to ini- volved in a major campaign to purchase tiate pre-production of the Future Surface- FRANCE WITH MALAYSIA missiles and other weapon systems. to-Air Family (FSAF) of missiles. The EFE (Madrid), 12/16/95; in FBIS-LAT-95-243, 12/ FSAF missiles will form the technological 16/95 (5856). basis of the Principal Anti-Air Missile Sys- 12/95 tem (PAAMS) to be fitted on-board the France’s Aerospatiale negotiates the cre- ECUADOR WITH UNITED KINGDOM Horizon frigates which the U.K., France, ation of a local joint venture to provide and Italy intend to build. A $1 billion con- support for the MM-38 and MM-40 Exocet 1/19/96* tract for FSAF production may be granted ASMs that are operated by the Royal Ma- A Peruvian military source says Ecuador to “prime contractor” EUROSAM of laysian Navy and other states in Southeast is negotiating for acquisition of two U.K.- France by 7/96. The FSAF agreement in- Asia. Aerospatiale has already transferred manufactured Leander anti-missile frigates. cludes the program’s Surface-Air Anti- support equipment to the Lumut naval The 2,500 ton frigates have a maximum Missile weapon, which is designed for dockyard in Malaysia. short-range naval air defense, and the Sol- Flight International, 12/13/95-12/19/95, p. 24 speed of 27 knots and are equipped with (5923). “missile systems and the newest weapons.” Air Moyenne Portee/Terre, which is a EFE (Madrid), 1/19/96; in FBIS-LAT-96-014, 1/ medium-range, ground-launched system FRANCE WITH RUSSIA 19/96 (5745). designed to replace the U.S.-manufactured Hawk missile. Both of these FSAF com- 12/6/95* ponents will employ two versions of Russia’s Moscow Aviation Institute and EGYPT Aerospatiale’s Aster missile: the single- stage Aster-15; and the medium-range As- France’s Aerospatiale are collaborating to ter-30. Two successful test-firings of the manufacture an “experimental variable- Aster missile in late 11/95 and early 12/95 thrust supersonic combustion ramjet removed the final obstacle blocking the (scramjet) engine.” The new scramjet is EGYPT WITH UNITED STATES PAAMS program. Sources indicate that the designed to have applications in the civil- tests assured the U.K.’s Ministry of De- ian and military fields, including aircraft, 11/95 fense that the Aster missile met the “per- spacecraft, and weapons programs. Test- Officials from the U.S.’s Predator un- formance criteria” established by London ing of the scramjet engine is scheduled to manned aerial vehicle (UAV) program as a prerequisite for British participation begin by the end of 1997. demonstrate the vehicle’s capabilities to Julian Moxon, Flight International, 12/6/95-12/12/ in PAAMS. 95 (5743). Egyptian military officials at Fort Giovanni de Briganti, Defense News, 1/8/96, p. 10 Huachuca in Arizona. (5930). Giovanni de Briganti, Defense News, 12/4/ David A. Fulghum, Aviation Week & Space Tech- 95-12/10/95, p. 18 (5930). Defense News, 12/18/ 1/15/96* nology, 11/13/95, pp. 72-73 (5742). 95-12/24/95, p. 2 (5694). Giovanni de Briganti, France’s Arianespace is considering the Defense News, 11/13/95-11/19/95, p. 42 (5694). joint marketing of Russian SL-4 Soyuz and SL-6 Molniya SLVs with the Samara FRANCE WITH KUWAIT TsSKB design bureau. The SL-4 can place seven ton payloads into low orbits and the 1/3/96* SL-6 is capable of delivering one ton pay- France’s Defense Minister Charles Millon loads to “high or elliptical orbits.” France’s intends to discuss the potential French sale Arianespace and Aerospatiale previously to Kuwait of between two to four “heavily proposed working with TsSKB to launch

The Nonproliferation Review/Spring-Summer 1996 139 Missile Developments

Loral Globalstar spacecraft. GERMANY WITH UNITED NATIONS veillance equipment. India’s Defense Re- Craig Covault, Aviation Week & Space Technol- search and Development Organisation ogy, 1/15/96, p. 26 (5897). 12/95 (DRDO) heads the consortium responsible Germany announces its decision to with- for developing the Trishul surface-to-air FRANCE WITH TAIWAN draw air support from UNSCOM in Iraq. (SAM), which is an element of India’s In- Bonn has been operating three CH-53 he- tegrated Guided Missile Development 11/13/95* licopters to allow U.N. inspectors to take Programme (IGMDP). Taiwan receives two samples of the en- high-resolution aerial photographs in Iraq All India Radio Network (Delhi), 11/5/95; in FBIS- hanced version of the Aerospatiale AM-39 NES-95-215, 11/5/95 (5683). Hindu, 11/11/95, p. and to transport them on surprise inspec- 2 (5683). Exocet air-launched anti-ship missile from tions of suspected weapon sites. Germany France. At least one of these missiles is has also been operating two C-160 cargo 11/8/95* test-fired by a Taiwanese AT-3 light at- planes to transport UNSCOM’s monitor- tack/trainer jet. Taiwan employs the U.S.- India will soon deploy the 150 km-range ing equipment and personnel between Iraq Prithvi surface-to-surface (SSM), accord- designed Harpoon ship-to-ship missile, but and Bahrain. Germany says the decision has not been successful in purchasing Har- ing to anonymous diplomatic sources. In- was based on budgetary and operational dian government officials assert the Indian poon air-to-surface missiles from the U.S. considerations. Paul Proctor, Aviation Week & Space Technology, Army will field Prithvi as a “tactical battle- R. Jeffrey Smith, Washington Post, 12/19/95, p. 11/13/95, p. 13 (5833). A29, (5866). field missile.” Flight International, 11/8/95-11/14/95, p. 20 FRANCE WITH UNITED ARAB EMIRATES (5842).

11/23/95 INDIA 11/29/95 French Defense Minister Charles Millon Muthulu Mallikarjun, Indian deputy de- announces his government’s intention to fense minister, tells the lower house of the sell the UAE up to four multi-purpose frig- Indian Parliament that it will no longer be “privy” to details concerning the Agni, ates equipped with phased array radars and INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS vertically launched air-defense and anti- Prithvi, Trishul, and Akash missile pro- grams. Indian legislators will, in the fu- ship missiles. Early 11/95 ture, be denied access to financial and other Giovanni de Briganti, Defense News, 11/6/95, p. Krishan Lal Sharma, a spokesman for the 6, (5888). information associated with the four mis- Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), says India sile programs. Mallikarjun says the long- 11/25/95* should “go ahead speedily with our mis- range Agni missile program should be free sile programme” because of the threat The French company Matra is competing from both international and parliamentary posed by Pakistan. Further demands for to fulfill the UAE’s stand-off missile re- oversight. According to Indian defense the deployment of indigenously produced quirement with a derivative of its Apache sources, the government has allocated missiles are expected during the BJP’s missile. $16.6 million for an additional five Agni three-day convention in Bombay which Jane’s Defence Weekly, 11/25/95, p. 16 (5669). tests. Indian defense sources also say the begins on 11/10/95. The BJP has criticized Trishul SAM has entered its final develop- 1/96 the Rao government for acquiescing to U.S. ment stage. France and the UAE discuss a contract for pressure to cap India’s missile development Vivek Raghuvanshi, Defense News, 12/11/95-12/ the latter’s purchase of “between two and program. The BJP favors initiating serial 17/95, pp. 5, 44 (5703). four” 3,600 ton missile-launching Lafayette production of the Prithvi missile, fielding class frigates. the Agni IRBM, and developing an Agni-2 12/5/95 Giovanni de Briganti, Defense News, 11/6/95, p. missile. An Indian Army source says the Akash 6, (5888). Jacques Isnard, Le Monde (Paris), 1/13/ Paul Iredale, Reuter, 11/6/95; in Executive News SAM will begin user trials in early 1996. 96, p. 5; in FBIS-TAC-96-001, 1/13/96 (5888). Service, 11/7/95 (5685). Hindu, 11/18/95, p. 4 (5685). The medium-range Akash incorporates an 11/4/95 air-breathing ramjet engine and can hit tar- India conducts a successful test of the gets at distances of up to 25 km with a 55 Trishul short-range SAM at the Interim kg warhead. GERMANY Vivek Raghuvanshi, Defense News, 12/11/95-12/ Test Range in Chandipur, Orissa. The 17/95, pp. 5, 44 (5703). Trishul’s 29th test is conducted in the “con- figuration” of the army; navy and air force 12/9/95 GERMANY WITH: versions are also being developed. The Dr. Abdul Kalam, scientific adviser to the Eastern Europe, France, and Iraq, 138 missile is launched from a Trishul combat Indian ministry of defense, tells journal- vehicle (TCV) fitted with tracking and sur- ists that the Prithvi SSM has been accepted

140 The Nonproliferation Review/Spring-Summer 1996 Missile Developments by the army and India is “going ahead with tested 14 times to date. With Indian gen- 1/28/96 the next step.” Kalam also tells the 14th eral elections likely to be held in 4/96, Mian Raza Rabbani, Pakistani minister for national conference on internal combustion Prime Minister Narasimha Rao is under law and parliamentary affairs, tells that DRDO plans, over the next ten years pressure from the BJP to establish a strong Pakistan’s Parliament that India’s Prithvi (1995-2005), to make India self-reliant in position on defense issues, including the test contributes to instability in South Asia. the production of 70 percent of all the com- testing and deployment of the Prithvi SSM. Rabbani adds that Islamabad can justifiably ponents used in several weapon systems. A senior defense official says serial pro- consider deploying anti-missile counter- Hindu (Madras), 12/9/95, p. 5; in FBIS-NES-95- duction of the Prithvi is already in progress. measures in response to the Pakistan-spe- 238, 12/9/95 (5737). Charles Aldinger, Reuter, 1/16/96; in Executive cific Prithvi SSM. Raja Mohammad News Service, 1/16/96 (5705). Jawed Naqvi, Zafarul Haq, leader of the Pakistani oppo- 12/11/95 Reuter, 1/16/96; in Executive News Service, 1/16/ sition in the House, also asserts that A source at the DRDO’s Advanced Devel- 96 (5705); All India Radio Network (Delhi), 1/17/ 96; in FBIS-NES-96-011, 1/17/96 (5705). Islamabad can justifiably act to bolster the opment Establishment (ADE) says ADE has nation’s security. constructed three prototypes of the Nishant 1/27/96 Radio Pakistan Network (Islamabad), 1/28/96; in UAV. An additional five are scheduled to India tests the Prithvi-2 SSM at DRDO’s FBIS-NES-96-020, 1/28/96 (5707). Radio Pakistan be manufactured within the next 12 months. Overseas Service (Islamabad), 1/28/96; in FBIS- Interim Test Range at Chandipur. The NES-96-020, 1/28/96 (5707). In 1995, ADE conducted five Nishant flight Prithvi-2 is tracked by “a network of three tests. According to ADE scientists, the radars, three optical tracking telescopes, 1/31/96 Nishant surveillance UAV will be capable three telemetry stations, and a naval ship.” of carrying a 45 kg payload at a maximum Pakistani President Farooq Ahmed Leghari The tracking ship confirms the Prithvi hit warns that India’s 1/27/96 test of the altitude of 4 km and at a cruising speed of its predetermined target approximately 250 140 km/h. The Nishant—which costs ap- Prithvi-2 SSM creates a new “threat per- km from its launch point near the Bay of ception for Pakistan,” and Islamabad will proximately $50,000 to manufacture—is Bengal. According to an Indian defense made primarily from a fiber-strengthened take the necessary measures to ensure its official, India intends to arm the Prithvi security. India responds to Pakistani and glass which reduces the UAV’s chances of SSM either with cluster munitions for de- being detected by radar. ADE has also de- international criticism of its Prithvi test by stroying airstrips, or with fuel air explo- calling it an “overreaction.” One Indian veloped the Lakshya pilotless target vehicle sives to ensure “maximum destruction” of for SAM and AAM training. The Lakshya defense official responds to the criticism the target area. by saying that nobody would “place a will be deployed eventually with all three Farhan Bokhari and Vivek Raghuvanshi, Defense branches of the Indian military. The Ban- News, 2/5/96-2/11/96, p. 18 (5838). nuclear warhead on a 250 km missile” be- galore-based Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. cause the “risk of damage to the area of (HAL) has already initiated low-rate pro- 1/28/96* origin” is too great. Farhan Bokhari and Vivek Raghuvanshi, Defense duction of the Lakshya. Although the DRDO rectifies problems with the Trishul News, 2/5/96-2/11/96, p. 18 (5838). Lakshya model developed for the Indian SAM’s guidance system. The Trishul uses military can be configured to deliver ord- a radar guidance system to home in on tar- INDIA WITH PAKISTAN AND nance, the export model is designed purely gets, including low-flying aircraft, at dis- UNITED STATES as a target aircraft. The Lakshya can be tances of up to 9 km. The Trishul might either ship- or ground-launched “using a also have an anti-missile capability because 1/16/96 rocket powered in flight by a turbojet en- of its short reaction time of between six to The U.S. asks India to refrain from de- gine.” One Lakshya squadron costs $4.66 eight seconds from target detection to ploying nuclear-capable Prithvi SSMs be- million and consists of six UAVs, a ground launch. The Indian Army will probably cause it would foster further tensions control system, and affiliated expendables. commence Trishul user trials in 3/96. between Pakistan and India. In 5/94, In- Scientists at ADE estimate that India’s in- All India Radio Network (Delhi), 1/28/96; in FBIS- digenously developed Nishant and Lakshya NES-96-020, 1/28/96 (5706). dian Prime Minister Narasimha Rao post- UAVs will move into “prototype and se- poned a Prithvi test-launch because of rial production” in mid-1996. INDIA WITH PAKISTAN similar U.S. anxieties. Charles Aldinger, Reuter, 1/16/96; in Executive Vivek Raghuvanshi, Defense News, 12/18/95-12/ News Service, 1/16/96 (5705). All India Radio 24/95, p. 12 (5739). 1/27/96 Network (Delhi), 1/17/96; in FBIS-NES-96-011, Pakistan’s Foreign Secretary Najmuddin 1/17/96 (5705). 1/16/96 Sheikh says India’s test of the Prithvi SSM India cancels a Prithvi SSM test for undis- is an ominous development in the region 11/29/95 closed reasons. The Indian Defense Min- and Pakistan will be forced to respond by U.S. Under Secretary of State Lynn Davis istry states that the next launch will be taking the necessary security measures. tells a news conference that American sup- conducted at the Interim Test Range at Radio Pakistan Network (Islamabad), 1/28/96; in plies of sophisticated military equipment Chandipur in Orissa. The Prithvi has been FBIS-NES-96-020, 1/28/96 (5707). to Pakistan under the Brown amendment

The Nonproliferation Review/Spring-Summer 1996 141 Missile Developments will help to prevent missile deployments stroyers are scheduled to enter service af- Iran launches a land-based cruise missile by both Pakistan and India. ter the Delhi. at a sea target close to the port of Jask. Hindu (International Edition), 12/9/95, p. 4 (5748). Telegraph (Calcutta), 11/25/95, p. 6; in FBIS-NES- The launch is designed to test the first “ad- 95-234, 11/25/95 (5749). Uday Bhaskar, Times Of vanced missile system” manufactured by 1/30/96 India (Bombay), 12/2/95, p. 10; in FBIS-NES-95- 234, 12/2/95 (5749). Iran’s navy. Units from Iran’s navy, army, Nicholas Burns, spokesman for the U.S. and revolution guards participate in the test. State Department, urges India and Paki- 12/16/95 Reuter, 11/29/95; in Executive News Service, 11/ 29/95 (5676). IRNA (Tehran), 11/25/95; in FBIS- stan to restrain themselves by warning that India will probably sign a defense contract both countries’ deployment and purchase NES-95-227, 11/25/95 (5676). IRNA (Tehran), 11/ with Russia “during the next few weeks,” 26/95; in FBIS-NES-95-227, 11/26/95 (5676). IRIB of ballistic missiles would destabilize the which will include the transfer of Russian Television First Program Network (Tehran), 11/ region. Burns says the U.S. continues “to S-300 and Tunguska anti-aircraft missile 25/95; in FBIS-NES- 95-227, 11/25/95 (5676). encourage both governments not to deploy systems. The contract is estimated to be 12/21/95 or test ballistic missiles.” worth in excess of $1 billion. Experts fore- Farhan Bokhari and Vivek Raghuvanshi, Defense Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps News, 2/5/96-2/11/96, p. 18 (5838). cast that Russian defense sales to India may total as much as $8-10 billion in the long (IRGC) begins missile and artillery defense exercises, code-named “Ya Aba ‘Abdallah INDIA WITH RUSSIA term. Maksim Yusin, Izvestiya (Moscow), 12/16/95, p. al-Husayn,” at a location near Qom. IRGC 3; in FBIS-SOV-95-243, 12/16/95 (5740). Commander Major General Mohsen Reza’i 4/7/95 says Iran has “rebuilt and renovated” its An anonymous Russian official offers to 12/17/96 anti-aircraft missiles without foreign assis- transfer 45 mobile Topol-M nuclear-ca- The Russian Embassy in Pakistan issues a tance. During the exercises, one missile pable ICBMs to India over the next 10 press release saying that reports from “APP identifies a target at a range of 270 km years. The proposed $3 billion transfer was publications” regarding the alleged Rus- before shooting it down. made to General Sundarji, India’s retired sian proposal to transfer Topol-M ICBMs IRIB Television First Program Network (Tehran), chief of army staff, at an “international to India are “absolutely false.” APP’s story 12/21/95; in FBIS-NES-95-245, 12/21/95 (5673). conference on strategic stability” in Vir- was derived from information distributed 12/23/95-12/26/95 ginia, U.S. The Russian newspaper Pravda by the Press Trust of India which quoted says it acquired copies of two classified Pravda’s report. The IRGC conducts the “Ra’d” (Thunder) documents written by the Russian delegate Vladimir Radyuhin, Hindu (online), 12/16/95, p. missile maneuvers near Kharg Island in the to the conference who reportedly spoke 14 (5874). Muslim (Islamabad), 12/18/95, pp. 1, northern area of the Persian Gulf. The with Sundarji during a private meeting. 8; in FBIS-TAC-96-001, 12/18/95 (5874). maneuvers are designed to exhibit the Russia will reportedly supply the Topol “combat readiness” of the IRGC’s missile ICBMs with the related communication and Late 1996 and naval units. Colonel Parviz Qowsi, control equipment, maintenance and train- Russia will send one of seven cryogenic deputy commander of the exercises, says ing, and spare parts; nuclear warheads will rocket engines to India for incorporation the maneuvers constitute the first time that not be included. Valery Pogrebenkov, a into its Geostationary Launch Vehicle missile frigates and coastal missile units spokesman for Russia’s Rosvoorouzhenie, (GSLV). Russia requests that India pay for demonstrate operational coordination. characterizes the report as “rubbish.” He the engines in dollars rather than rupees as Qowsi says the maneuvers include: “a num- adds that Rosvoorouzhenie does not have agreed previously. India plans to launch ber of long-range missile frigates; dozens export licenses for Topol-M ICBMs and its first GSLV using a Russian engine in of fast missile frigates; dozens of heavy has no plans to transfer them. 1998 and may use indigenously developed and medium weight combat and support Vladimir Radyuhin, Hindu (online),12/16/95, p. 14 cryogenic engines starting in the year 2000. frigates; four land-to-sea and defense mis- (5874). Muslim (Islamabad), 12/18/95, pp. 1, 8; in Flight International, 1/17/96-1/23/96, p. 17 (5922). sile units; and radar and monitoring sites.” FBIS-TAC-96-001, 12/18/9 (5874). Aleksey Varlamov and Yevgeniy Menshikov, Rear Admiral Ahmadiyan, acting com- Komsomolskaya Pravda, 12/15/95, p. 10 (5882). mander of the IRGC’s naval forces, says IRAN Iranian frigates armed with long-range 11/24/95 missile launchers can meet any challenge. IRNA (Tehran), 12/26/95; in FBIS-NES-95-250, Admiral V.S. Shekhawat, India’s naval 12/26/95 (5919). IRNA (Tehran), 12/24/95; in chief, says the Indian Navy is awaiting a FBIS-NES-95-247, 12/24/95 (5919). IRNA Russian delivery of anti-ship missiles INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS (Tehran), 12/22/95; in FBIS-NES-95-247, 12/22/ (ASMs) for the indigenously manufactured 95 (5919). IRIB Television First Program Network Delhi and Mysore destroyers. The 6,200 (Tehran), 12/26/95; in FBIS-NES- 95-250, 12/26/ 11/23/95-12/1/95 95 (5919). IRNA (Tehran), 12/25/95; in FBIS-NES- ton Delhi destroyer is scheduled to enter During the Saeqe-4 (Thunderbolt-4) mili- 95-250, 12/25/95 (5919). IRNA (Tehran) 12/24/ service in 1997, 12 months later than tary exercises “near the mouth of the Gulf,” 95; in FBIS-NES-95-250, 12/24/95 (5919). planned. India’s Mysore and Bombay de-

142 The Nonproliferation Review/Spring-Summer 1996 Missile Developments

12/24/95 mobile launchers and may add the more Evelyn Leopold, Reuter,11/8/95; in Executive The IRGC opens its first “technical-engi- capable land-based C-802 from China to News Service, 11/8/95 (5890). neering exhibit” in Tehran at which its arsenal. Iran has also deployed improved 11/16/95 samples of “repaired or reconstructed” Hawk missiles, coastal cruise missiles, and military hardware, including “missile pro- MLRS on other islands in the Persian Gulf. Ekeus tells the Washington Institute for duction units,” are displayed. Washington Post, 1/31/96, p. A10 (5843). James Near East Policy that Iraq “was known to IRNA (Tehran), 12/26/95; in FBIS-NES-95-250, R. Asker, Aviation Week & Space Technology, 2/ be working on rockets” with ranges of 900 12/26/95 (5919). IRNA (Tehran) 12/24/95; in 5/96, p. 25 (5843). Sergey Viktorov, Voice of km, 2,000 km, and 3,000 km, by “exploit- FBIS-NES-95-250, 12/24/95 (5919). Russia World Service (Moscow), 2/1/96; in FBIS- SOV-96-023, 2/1/96 (5843). Voice Of The Islamic ing a loophole in U.N. restrictions” that Republic of Iran (Tehran), 1/31/96; in FBIS-NES- permits Iraq to conduct research and de- 12/24/95 96-022, 1/31/96 (5843). Flight International, 2/7/ velopment on ballistic missiles. Brigadier General Seyyed Rahim Safavi, 96-2/13/96, p. 17 (5843). Wall Street Journal, 1/ Patrick Worsnip, Reuter, 11/16/95; in Executive IRGC acting commander-in-chief, says the 31/96, p. 1 (5793). Philip Finnegan and Robert News Service, 11/17/95 (5890). Holzer, Defense News, 11/27/95-12/3/95, p. 1 corps has made considerable advances in (5803). the production of 500 km-range ballistic 11/28/95 The Iraqi News Agency is informed by missiles and “Sum” missiles [SAMs] “ca- IRAN WITH PRC pable of hitting targets within a range of Ekeus that UNSCOM has obtained new in- formation regarding Iraq’s missile capa- 200 km.” 12/13/95-12/19/95* IRNA (Tehran), 12/26/95; in FBIS-NES-95-250, bilities. Ekeus also meets Iraqi Minister of 12/26/95 (5919). IRNA (Tehran), 12/25/95; in China is supplying technical assistance to Oil Lieutenant General ‘Amir Muhammad FBIS-NES-95-250, 12/25/95 (5919). Iran’s cruise missile development program, Rashid and plans to meet with Iraqi Deputy according to Middle East sources. The Prime Minister Tariq ‘Aziz. 1/30/96 sources say China has provided Iran with INA (Baghdad), 11/28/95; in FBIS-NES-95-229, Iran test-fires a new, Chinese-made anti- missile navigation components, including 11/28/95 (5701). ship missile in the northern Arabian Sea. global positioning system technology, in- The sea-skimming Chinese-made C-802 formation on propulsion techniques, and 11/29/95 (YJ-2) anti-ship missile has a 15-120 km production equipment. After a three-day visit to Baghdad, Ekeus range and a 700 kg payload. Iran wants to Flight International, 12/13/95-12/19/95, p. 14 says progress was made in talks with Iraqi deploy the C-802s on its five Chinese (5752). officials. Ekeus says he is satisfied with Huadong patrol ships and may purchase the Iraqi government’s cooperation in sup- IRAN WITH RUSSIA five more of the patrol ships from China. plying information, although he adds that According to Vice Admiral Scott Redd, experts will need to examine and confirm commander of the U.S. 5th Fleet, Iran has 11/8/95 this data. adapted “a significant number” of its ships Russia reveals that it has shipped 94 “mis- INA (Baghdad), 11/28/95; in FBIS-NES-95-229, for the new missile, the first ship-based siles or missile launchers” to Iran. Mos- 11/28/95 (5701). cruise missile Iran has acquired. Redd adds cow submits this information to the U.N. that the C-802 adds a “new threat dimen- Conventional Arms Register eight days Early 12/95 sion” for ships operating in the Gulf. Iran after its publication on 10/31/95. Ekeus reports that UNSCOM can only ac- has increased by threefold the number of Washington Times, 12/2/95, p. A6 (5857). count for 70 of the engines from the 80 surface-to-surface missiles (SSMs) de- Scud-type propulsion systems that Iraq pro- ployed by its military, especially near the duced before the Gulf War. Ekeus adds that Strait of Hormuz. The SSMs are a threat IRAQ 53 of these 80 engines are now inoperable. because they can be difficult to locate. Ac- After briefing the U.N. Security Council, cording to senior U.S. Navy officials, Iran Ekeus tells reporters that Iraq’s declara- is improving the integration of it naval ca- tions regarding its missile program remain pabilities, combining submarines, anti-ship incomplete and unsatisfactory. He says that INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS missiles, mines, and anti-aircraft systems despite U.N. sanctions, Iraq has acquired some missile parts since the Gulf War of to constitute a threat to other Persian Gulf 11/8/95 states and the U.S. Navy. These develop- 1991 and UNSCOM has been forced to The U.N. Security Council extends trade ments are taking place despite the fact that compare information from third countries sanctions against Baghdad because of a 10/ Iran’s military acquisitions have decreased with data recently provided by Baghdad. 95 report submitted by UNSCOM Chief by two-thirds since 1992 due to economic Ekeus adds that, despite pressure from Rolf Ekeus which asserts that Iraq ordered hardship and U.S. pressure. Iran already some Iraqi officials for UNSCOM to fin- missile parts from abroad. Baghdad claims possesses approximately 100 160 km-range ish its inspections as soon as possible, Iraqi it produced the components indigenously. CSS-3 ‘Seersucker’ SSMs on eight to 10 Deputy Prime Minister Tariq ‘Aziz told

The Nonproliferation Review/Spring-Summer 1996 143 Missile Developments him they should all work seriously and IRAQ WITH JORDAN government. without time constraints. Washington Times, 12/28/95, p. A13 (5859). Al- R. Jeffrey Smith, Washington Post, 12/15/95, p. 12/95 Dustur (Amman), 12/28/95, pp. 1, 16; in FBIS- 30 (5914). Washington Post, 12/8/95, p. A44 TAC-96-001, 12/28/95 (5744). (5914). Jack Redden, Reuter, 12/7/95; in Execu- A source from the National Supervision tive News Service, 12/8/95, (5908). Jack Redden, Department (NSD) of Iraq’s Military In- IRAQ WITH JORDAN AND RUSSIA Reuter, 12/8/95; in Executive News Service, 12/ dustrialization Organization denies allega- 12/95 (5908). Evelyn Leopold, Reuter, 12/5/95; tions that it attempted to import missile in Executive News Service, 12/5/95 (5858). 11/10/95 components through Jordan in 11/95. The A shipment of 115 Russian-made gyro- 12/10/95 source says Baghdad declined the offer of scopes destined for Iraq leaves Moscow on a Jordanian broker to supply Iraq with mis- U.N. Secretary General Boutros Boutros- a Royal Jordanian aircraft. Jordanian offi- sile guidance components in 1994, in mid- Ghali says he is “quite positive” after talk- cials subsequently intercept the shipment 1995, and in 10/95. On 5/3/94, the NSD ing with Tariq ‘Aziz about Baghdad’s in Amman. The components are trans- reportedly warned the broker not to attempt clandestine weapons program. ‘Aziz says ported in 30 crates marked as electrical to sell these components to Iraq again. A he informed Boutros-Ghali of the work Iraq equipment. The U.N. estimates the ship- copy of the 5/3/94 message was forwarded has done to “clarify most of the issues ment to be worth in excess of $25 million. to UNSCOM. According to the source, the raised” since the defections of two senior According to documents obtained by the broker’s offer was refused because of Iraq’s Iraqi officials in 8/95. U.N., the missile parts were ordered by commitment to U.N. sanctions. Stephanie Nebehay, Reuter, 12/10/95; in Execu- the Karama research center near Baghdad, tive News Service, 12/10/95 (5849). Iraq Television Network (Baghdad), 12/8/95 ; in FBIS-NES-95-237, 12/8/95 (5907). where Iraq is developing missiles with ranges of up to 150 km. Although the gy- 12/12/95 12/12/95 roscopes may have been “designed for use After a meeting with Tariq ‘Aziz, Sergey Following a meeting with Tariq ‘Aziz, Iraqi in long-range intercontinental missiles,” Lavrov, chairman of the U.N. Security deputy prime minister, Sergey Lavrov, Baghdad claims they were to be used in Council, says 'Aziz asked him to tell the chairman of the U.N. Security Council, the manufacture of short-range missiles. council that Baghdad has instructed all of says the issue of the Iraqi-bound missile A Jordanian official says the components Iraq’s government agencies to cooperate parts confiscated in Jordan was not dis- were imported by a Palestinian from Gaza fully with UNSCOM. cussed during the meeting. 'Aziz tells jour- who left Jordan in 9/95 or early 10/95. The Boris Sitnikov, Itar-Tass (Moscow), 12/13/95; in Jordanian newspaper Al-Bilad identifies the FBIS-SOV-95-239, 12/13/95 (5668). nalists that allegations Iraq tried to import missile components through Jordan in 11/ importer as Weaam Gharbiyeh, a Pales- 12/21/95 95 are unfounded. tinian who set up an import-export com- pany in Amman after leaving Kuwait in Ambassador Ekeus exhibits to the U.N. Iraq Television Network (Baghdad), 12/8/95; in FBIS-NES-95-237, 12/8/95 (5907). Iraq Television 1990. Gharbiyeh is known to have ties with Security Council one of several missile gy- Network (Baghdad), 12/12/95; in FBIS-NES-95- Saddam Hussein’s regime and is now roscopes which UNSCOM retrieved from 239, 12/12/95, (5907). Boris Sitnikov; Itar-Tass thought to be in Baghdad after leaving the Tigris River in Baghdad. It appears Iraq (Moscow), 12/13/95; in FBIS-SOV-95-239, 12/13/ Amman in 9/95 or early 10/95. Other re- deposited the gyroscopes in the river to pre- 95 (5668). ports attribute the shipment to Gharbiyeh vent their discovery. Barbara Crossette, New York Times, 12/22/95, p. 12/27/95 and an Iraqi businessman, ‘Udayy ‘Ujam, A6 (5677). Jordanian Foreign Minister Abdul-Karim who resides in Jordan. Iraq blames the in- Kabariti announces that Jordan recently in- cident on a Jordanian businessman who 1/17/96* tercepted a computerized milling machine tried to sell the prohibited items to Iraq on An Israel Defense Forces (IDF) report as- en route to Iraq. The milling machine can at least two previous occasions. U.N. offi- serts that Iraq’s arsenal will include 10 Scud be used to produce missile components. cials describe Iraq’s explanation as inac- launchers and approximately 150 Scud mis- The machine was imported into Jordan by curate. The Russian Ministry of Foreign siles by the year 2000. an Amman-based Iraqi front company. Affairs denies any involvement in the deal. Alex Fishman, Yedi’ot Aharonot (Tel Aviv), 1/17/ Kabariti says the seizure was made pos- The interception illustrates how Baghdad 96, p. 21; in FBIS-NES-96-012, 1/17/96 (5667). sible by the large quantity of documents is continuing to violate the U.N. embargo which Iraq released to the U.N. following on virtually all trade with Iraq. IRAQ WITH: the defection of Husayn Kamil Hasan in 8/ James Bruce, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 1/3/96, p. 3 Austria, Jordan, and Russia, 137 (5853). R. Jeffrey Smith, Washington Post, 12/15/ 95. According to Kabariti, the documents 95, p. A30 (5853). Jordan Times (Amman), 12/9/ Belgium, South Africa, United revealed “the names of all the parties and 95, pp. 1, 7; in FBIS-NES-95-237, 12/9/95 (5908). Kingdom, and United States, 137 companies cooperating with the Iraqi re- Al-Bilad (Amman), 12/13/95, p. 1; in FBIS-NES- Eastern Europe, France, and gime.” He also asserts that many of the 95-238, 12/13/95 (5908). Voice Of Iraqi People (clandestine), 12/20/95; in FBIS-NES-95-245,12/ Germany, 138 documents had not been cleared by the Iraqi 20/95 (5908).

144 The Nonproliferation Review/Spring-Summer 1996 Missile Developments

Early 12/95 to cooperate with UNSCOM and to close Ha’aretz (Tel Aviv), 12/11/95, p. B1; in FBIS-NES- A spokesman at the Russian Embassy in “all the remaining gaps in the disarmament 95-238, 12/11/95 (5918). Washington says the missile guidance com- process.” 1/96 ponents intercepted in Jordan en route to Denis Perkin, Itar-Tass (Moscow), 1/4/96; in FBIS- Iraq in 11/95 “did not belong to Russia.” SOV-96-004, 1/4/96 (5861). IAI conducts the first flight of its short- According to U.S. and U.N. officials, this range Eye-View tactical UAV. The 9-foot denial is not credible because the missile long, lightweight UAV has an optronic parts were designed for Russian long-range payload with a day/night sensor. ISRAEL Aviation Week & Space Technology, 2/5/96, p. 23 missiles, although they could also be modi- (5846). fied for shorter range systems. R. Jeffrey Smith, Washington Post, 12/15/95, p. ISRAEL WITH ITALY, PRC, AND RUSSIA 30 (5914). INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS 12/9/95 12/31/95 The Russian Foreign Ministry denies re- 11/95 China completes flight-testing of a domes- ports that the Iraqi-bound shipment of mis- Elta completes the second of its Green Pines tic “late-model combat aircraft” [probably sile components intercepted in Jordan L-band active array radars for the Arrow- the F-10] over Bohai Bay. The fighter, fly- originated in Russia. The ministry also em- 2 ATBM system. Tadiran also delivers the ing at low altitudes, destroys a ship with phasizes that Moscow complies with the battle management command, control, and its missiles. According to the Chinese de- U.N. sanctions on Iraq. communications (BMC3) system for the fense journal Jiefangjun Bao, the aircraft Jack Redden, Reuter, 12/8/95; in Executive News Arrow-2. Israel Aircraft Industries (IAI) “accomplished all the flying tests for fi- Service, 12/12/95 (5908). Interfax (Moscow), 12/ is the prime contractor for the Arrow-2 nalizing the design of the new aircraft 9/95; in FBIS-SOV-95-237, 12/9/95 (5908). project. IAI will begin systems integration model.” Sources at the 11/95 Dubai Air for the Arrow-2 in the near future. Show said China’s F-10s, which are being 12/9/95 International Defense Review, 1/96, p. 5 (5912). built in Chengdu, are likely to be equipped Sergey Lavrov, chairman of the U.N. Se- with the same Russian-designed radar used curity Council, says the Russian govern- 12/95 by Sukhoi Su-27 fighter aircraft. The first ment has denied any involvement in the The Israel Defense Force’s (IDF) Planning F-10 flight test of the radar, made by the Iraqi-bound shipment of missile parts that Branch will present the country’s multi- Russian firm Phazotron, is expected in was intercepted in Jordan. year “Composite 2000” military force plan 1997. Phazotron officials say the Boris Sitnikov, Itar-Tass (Moscow), 12/13/95; in to Israeli Prime Minister and Defense Min- Zhemchoug (Pearl) radar they are propos- FBIS-SOV-95-239, 12/13/95 (5668). ister Shi’mon Peres. The plan is being pre- ing is an advancement on their Zhuk multi- pared by Major General Uzi Dayan, head mode pulse-Doppler system. The IRAQ WITH JORDAN, RUSSIA, AND of the IDF’s Planning Board. The plan iden- Zhemchoug radar will have an improved UNITED STATES tifies the continued proliferation of SSMs target detection range over the Zhuk. China as one of the principal long-term threats to is fitting the Zhuk system on its F-8 fight- Early 1996 Israeli security. The plan provides $200 ers as part of an ongoing upgrade program. U.S. Representative Curt Weldon (R-PA), million for the continued development of According to industry officials, China also chairman of the House National Security the Arrow ATBM system. General David plans to upgrade its F-7 fleet with new ra- military research and development subcom- Ivri, director of Israel’s defense ministry, dar. Italy’s FIAR, Russia’s Phazotron, and mittee, requests a White House investiga- says the Arrow is designed to give Israel Israel’s Elta may be among the competi- tion into reports that Russia violated the an operational defense capability against tors for this upgrade contract. MTCR by attempting to ship components sudden missile strikes. According to Zhongguo Xinwen She (Beijing), 12/4/95; in FBIS- for long-range missiles through Jordan to Re’uven Pedatzur, however, the Arrow CHI-96-003, 1/4/96 (5797). Charles Bickers and Nick Cook, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 11/25/95, p. 4 Iraq in 11/95. missile system is “redundant, too costly, Defense News, 2/5/96-2/11/96, p. 2 (5925). (5797). Flight International, 11/22/95-11/28/95, p. and too small a benefit.” The Israeli Air 5 (5797). Flight International, 11/5/95-11/21/95, Force will continue to procure UAVs such p. 4 (5797). IRAQ WITH RUSSIA as the Searcher for gathering intelligence. The air force will also equip its aircraft ISRAEL WITH RUSSIA 1/4/96 with advanced air-to-surface missiles Russia’s Foreign Ministry releases a press manufactured by Rafael. 11/3/95 statement regarding the visit of Deputy For- Aluf Ben, Ha’aretz (Tel Aviv), 12/3/95, pp. A1- Israel and Russia sign a two-year memo- eign Minister Viktor Posuvalyuk to A2; in FBIS-NES-95-233, 12/3/95 (5918). Aluf randum of understanding (MOU) on de- Baghdad. During the visit, Posuvalyuk is Ben, Ha’aretz (Tel Aviv), 12/27/95, p. A3; in FBIS- NES-95-250, 12/27/95 (5918). Re’uven Pedatzur, fense cooperation. Grachev describes as “a scheduled to emphasize the need for Iraq

The Nonproliferation Review/Spring-Summer 1996 145 Missile Developments complete lie” a report on Israel Radio’s ever had. completed in FY 1996 and the demonstra- Russian service that Moscow has agreed Ben Kaspit, Ma’Ariv (Tel Aviv) 12/29/95, p. 7; in tion/validation phase will then proceed into to purchase missiles and tanks from Israel. FBIS-NES-96-001, 12/29/95 (5864). the engineering development stage under Steve Rodan, Jerusalem Post (Jerusalem), 11/4/95, the “Arrow Deployability Project.” Ac- p. 12; in FBIS-NES-95-232, 11/4/95 (5899). ISRAEL WITH UNITED STATES cording to the terms of a U.S.-Israeli memorandum of understanding, the U.S. 12/1/95 11/95 will continue to support the Israeli project Israel and Russia sign a MOU which in- Officials from the U.S. Predator UAV pro- with an annual contribution of $40 million cludes a pledge to cooperate in stemming gram demonstrate the vehicle’s capabili- research funding from FY 1997. The an- the proliferation of weapons of mass de- ties to Israeli military officials at Fort nual U.S. contribution will include $5 mil- struction to extremist states. Huachuca in Arizona. lion for boost-phase intercept research. In Sharon Denny, Defense News, 12/4/95-12/10/95, David A. Fulghum, Aviation Week & Space Tech- return for funding the Arrow-2, the U.S. p. 2 (5675). nology, 11/13/95, pp. 72-73 (5742). receives data relevant to the Theater High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) hit-to-kill ISRAEL WITH SOUTH KOREA 11/4/95* missile defense program and to “theater- The U.S. firm Loral Vought Systems con- defense versions of the naval Standard mis- 1/3/96 cludes a $103.5 million Foreign Military sile.” Israel is expected to begin low-rate Israeli Major General Eytan Ben-Eliyahu Sales contract with Israel to supply 42 mul- initial production of the Arrow-2 system meets with the South Korean Deputy De- tiple launch rocket system (MLRS) launch- in 1997 and an operational capability could fense Minister in Seoul to discuss the ex- ers and over 1,500 tactical rockets. The be achieved in 1998. port of weapons and expertise, including launchers will be delivered by 5/98, and International Defense Review, 1/96, p. 5 (5912). UAVs, to South Korea. all the rockets will arrive by 9/98. Jerusalem Wol Yisra’el, 1/4/96; in FBIS-EAS-96- Jane’s Defence Weekly, 11/4/95, p. 8 (5666). De- 003, 1/4/96 (5769). fense News, 11/6/95, p. 17 (5666). 1/8/96 U.S. Secretary of Defense William Perry ISRAEL WITH SWITZERLAND 12/20/95* says the U.S. will give Israel $200 million Israel’s Rafael is developing a new 100 km- to continue development of the Arrow 1/1/96* range missile designed to intercept SSMs ATBM over the next five years. Israel will contribute $300 million to the project over The Swiss firm Oerlikon-Contraves is to in the boost phase. The new missile will the same period. Following a successful sell four ADS 95 Ranger UAV systems to incorporate technology derived from the Arrow test launch in 7/95, Israel announced Switzerland’s Defense Agency for $200 Python-4 air-to-air missile (AAM), and IAI that the missile may be operational by mid- million. The systems are based on IAI’s is examining the feasibility of mounting the 1997. According to Israeli defense sources, Ranger UAVs. IAI is one of the primary new missile on a UAV. The project will the cost of the Arrow ATBM project will subcontractors to the Swiss program. Each soon become a joint U.S.-Israeli program. The Israeli infrared-guided missile is not total $1.25 billion. ADS 95 Ranger system comprises seven Charles Aldinger, Reuter, 1/8/96; in Executive UAVs, “two ground control stations, two designed to score a direct hit but will de- News Service, 1/8/96 (5851). communication terminals, two launchers stroy attacking missiles with a “proximity and two mobile receiving units.” Delivery explosion.” The U.S. will concentrate its Late 1/96 of the first system is scheduled for mid- efforts on developing a kinetic-energy-kill Paul Kaminski, U.S. Department of De- 1998. missile with a range of at least 200 km. fense (DOD) acquisition chief, considers Aviation Week & Space Technology, 1/1/96, p. 16 Iraq’s Scud SSM attacks during the Gulf terminating production of the short-range (5863). War prompted the idea of developing boost- Hunter UAV, which is jointly manufac- phase-intercept (BPI) missiles. Rafael needs tured by IAI and the U.S. firm TRW. Over ISRAEL WITH SYRIA $15 million to continue development of the the past five years, the DOD has spent $700 new weapon, which is scheduled for a dem- million on the program and 20 of the UAVs 12/95 onstration launch before the end of 1998. have crashed. The DOD originally granted Flight International, 12/20/95-1/2/96, p. 15 (5854). Israeli Minister for Industry and Trade IAI and TRW a $169 million contract to Mikha Harish says that proximity to an Arye Arad, Davar Rishon (Tel Aviv), 12/22/95, p. 1; in FBIS-NES-95-247, 12/22/95 (5671). produce seven Hunter UAVs and planned opponent’s missile launch sites is a crucial to spend an additional $4 billion on pro- factor in being able to “take them out.” 1/96 curing an additional 50 systems for the U.S. Harish makes the comment in reference to Israel is scheduled to test fire the proto- Army, Navy, and Marine Corps. a national referendum on the issue of type of the Arrow-2 anti-tactical ballistic Flight International, 1/31/96-2/6/96, p. 16 (5900). whether Israel should give the strategically missile (ATBM). The Israeli-U.S. Arrow situated Golan heights back to Syria. Harish Continuation Experiments (ACES) will be says Syria has more Scud SSMs than Iraq

146 The Nonproliferation Review/Spring-Summer 1996 Missile Developments

12/5/95 that it is preparing its first white paper on Officials from Japan’s Ministry of Inter- the People’s Liberation Army, following a ITALY national Trade and Industry (MITI) state recent promise to “issue a report on Army that new export control regulations will buildup at a proper time.” In 11/95, Beijing soon require exporters to “seek export per- released a white paper on “China’s Arms mission” if they are informed by the trade Control and Reduction” in response to ITALY WITH: minister that their goods could be utilized Japanese demands that the Chinese mili- France and United Kingdom, 139 in the development of weapons of mass tary become more transparent. China and Israel, PRC, and Russia, 145 destruction (WMD), or when there are “ob- Japan had begun discussions on security jective concerns over such use.” issues in 1994. At the 1/15/96 meeting, ITALY WITH PAKISTAN, PRC, AND Mainichi Shimbun (Tokyo), 12/13/95, p. 9; in FBIS- Chinese officials say they consider the EAS-95-241, 12/13/95 (5695). Kyodo (Tokyo), 12/ RUSSIA amount of money spent by Japan on mili- 5/95; in FBIS-TAC-95-007, 12/5/95 (5695). tary equipment to be “enormous,” adding that Tokyo should be careful when think- 1/1/96* 12/12/95 ing about spending money on defense and Russia is offering China the Super Komar MITI decides to implement new export con- radar, which is an improved version of the conducting joint research with the U.S. on trols to hinder the spread of missiles and the Theater Missile Defense (TMD) Kopyo, for the joint Chinese and Pakistani WMD from 10/96. MITI plans to require FC-1 fighter project. Although Western project. During the talks, Japan also de- export permits for over 80 items which mands that China cease all nuclear testing firms such as Italy’s FIAR are also com- could be used to develop missiles and peting for this contract, Chinese sources without delay. China repeats its claim that, nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons. in comparison to the other declared nuclear have indicated that the People’s Liberation Japan’s new export regulations will cover Army favors a domestic source for its FC- powers, its number of tests is the lowest “general purpose” items such as integrated and that these tests are only for self-de- 1 fire-control radars. circuits , machine tools, engines, and International Defense Review, 1/96, p. 10 (5938). fense. Japan is represented at the meeting pumps. Although all countries will be sub- by Bureau of Defense Policy Director Gen- ject to export controls, MITI officials state eral Masahiro Akiyama and Director Gen- that less stringent standards will be applied eral of the Asian Affairs Bureau of the JAPAN to countries which observe international Foreign Ministry Ryozo Kato. The Chi- nonproliferation accords. MITI will also nese side includes Wang Yi the director of relax controls on exports to the U.S. and the Foreign Ministry’s Department of European countries that belong to the Aus- Asian Affairs. tralia Group. INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS Noriyoshi Itokawa, Asahi Shimbun (Tokyo), 1/16/ Mainichi Shimbun (Tokyo), 12/13/95, p. 9; in FBIS- 96 (Morning Edition), p. 2; in FBIS-CHI-96-013, EAS-95-241, 12/13/95 (5695). Kyodo (Tokyo), 12/ 1/16/96 (5955). Kyodo (Tokyo), 1/15/96; in FBIS- 11/28/95 5/95; in FBIS-TAC-95-007, 12/5/95 (5695). CHI-96-010, 1/15/96 (5955). The Japanese government approves Japan’s Yomiuri Shimbun (Tokyo), 11/5/95, p. 7; in FBIS- TAC-95-007, 11/5/95 (5695). “National Defense Program Outline” 1/16/96 which emphasizes the need for a leaner, 12/25/96 Responding to a question on China’s op- high-tech military to counter new security The JDA announces that Japan’s defense position to joint U.S.-Japan development threats such as those posed by missile and budget for 1996 will allocate $2.85 mil- of TMD, Japanese Foreign Ministry nuclear proliferation. According to sources lion (295 million yen) for “concept stud- spokesperson Hiroshi Hashimoto says in the Japanese Defense Agency (JDA), the ies” on the research and development of a China understands Japan’s defense policy outline supports the development of anti- ballistic missile defense system. The de- is “completely defensive” in nature, and tactical ballistic missile (ATBM) capabili- fense budget will also provide for the pur- that Tokyo is still only considering the ties. Japan also pledges to cooperate with chase of nine multiple launch rocket possibility of TMD development. arms control and disarmament efforts by Japan Ministry of Foreign Affairs WWW, 1/16/ systems (MLRSs). 96; in FBIS-EAS-96-013, 1/16/96 (5939). the U.N. and other international organiza- Naoaki Usui, Defense News, 1/8/96-1/14/96, p. 11 tions aimed at “preventing the prolifera- (5720). tion of weapons of mass destruction and JAPAN WITH UNITED STATES missiles.” JAPAN WITH PRC Eugene Moosa, Reuter, 11/28/95; in Executive 11/95 News Service, 11/29/95 (5837). Japan Ministry of 1/15/96 The Japanese and U.S. governments con- Foreign Affairs (Internet), 12/95; in FBIS-EAS-96- clude an $80 million contract with the 016, 1/24/96 (5837). Naoaki Usui, Defense News, During the third set of security talks be- 12/4/95-12/10/95, p. 45 (5837). Nihon Keizai tween China and Japan, Beijing announces U.S.’s Standard Missile for 243 Standard Shimbun (Tokyo), 12/2/95, p. 2; in FBIS-EAS-95- naval surface-to-air missiles (SAMs). Stan- 233, 12/2/95 (5837).

The Nonproliferation Review/Spring-Summer 1996 147 Missile Developments dard Missile is a joint Hughes-Raytheon any “final decision” about pursuing TMD wards implementing the Strategic Arms venture. “should be made after repeated discussions Reduction Treaty (START) by dismantling Flight International, 11/29/95-12/5/95, p. 17 from a comprehensive viewpoint.” the upper sections of long-range ballistic (5688). Kyodo (Tokyo), 1/4/96; in FBIS-EAS-96-003, 1/ missile silos at Zhangiztob, in 4/96 (5698). Sankei Shimbun (Tokyo), 12/27/95, Semipalatinsk. Under agreements with the p. 3; in FBIS-EAS-95-250, 12/27/95 (5698). 11/4/95* U.S., military specialists from both coun- The U.S. firm Loral Vought Systems con- 1/4/96 tries will cooperate in dismantling cludes a $4.4 million contract with Japan Kazakstan’s remaining nuclear missile in- JDA Chief Seishiro Eto announces that he to deliver 180 MLRS tactical rockets and frastructure and in converting facilities for is prepared to undertake joint “research and 180 reduced-range practice rockets by 9/ other uses. Military personnel from development” with the U.S. on TMD. 97. Kazakstan’s Zhangiztob and Derzhavinsk Jane’s Defence Weekly, 11/4/95, p. 8 (5666). Kyodo (Tokyo), 1/4/96; in FBIS-EAS-96-003, 1/ 4/96 (5698). ICBM sites will be transferred back to Rus- sia. The complete dismantlement of 12/6/95 Kazakstan’s strategic nuclear missile arse- Japanese Finance Minister Masayoshi nal and the related facilities is scheduled Takemura debates the usefulness of Japan’s JORDAN for completion by late 1996. Kazakstan will involvement in the U.S. TMD system dur- then have fulfilled its obligation to become ing a meeting of the Japanese Security a non-nuclear state in compliance with the Council. Takemura is a member of the Lisbon Protocol of 1993. “New Party Sakigake” which is reluctant JORDAN WITH: Kazakstanskaya Pravda, 12/6/95, p. 1 (5883). to support TMD. Austria, Iraq, and Russia, 137 Kyodo (Tokyo), 12/14/95; in FBIS-EAS-95-241, 12/14/95 (5719). Kyodo (Tokyo), 12/6/95; in FBIS- Iraq, 144 EAS-95-234, 12/6/95 (5719). Kyodo (Tokyo), 12/ Iraq and Russia, 144 KUWAIT 14/95; in FBIS-EAS-95-240, 12/14/95 (5719). Iraq, Russia, and United States, 145 12/14/95 Japan’s Security Council and Finance Min- istry agree on a 25.15 trillion yen budget KAZAKSTAN KUWAIT WITH: for a five-year defense plan which will in- France, 139 clude an investigation into the “usefulness and cost-effectiveness” of TMD. The TMD KUWAIT WITH RUSSIA plan—a U.S. project to deploy a network KAZAKSTAN WITH RUSSIA of satellites and missiles to target incom- Late 11/95 ing ballistic missiles—had been a “stick- 1/25/96 Kuwait receives Smerch multiple rocket ing point” in Japan’s ruling coalition At a meeting in Almaty, Kazakstani Presi- launchers from Russia. between the Liberal Democratic Party Viktor Lebedev, Itar-Tass (Moscow), 12/12/95; in dent Nursultan Nazarbayev and Russian (LDP) and the Social Democratic Party FBIS-SOV-95-239, 12/12/95 (5712). Defense Minister Pavel Grachev discuss (SDP). The LDP supports the plan, while mutual security issues, including the es- the SDP does not want to commit fully to 12/12/95 tablishment of a common air defense sys- the project. The impasse was resolved when A Russian delegation arrives in Kuwait to tem. Grachev says Nazarbayev is the most LDP conceded by diluting the wording of witness the “launch” of Smerch multiple active proponent of Kazak-Russian coop- the five-year plan to indicate that the study rocket launchers scheduled for 12/13/95. eration on a missile attack warning system, does not necessitate a commitment to par- The delegation includes Boris Kuzyk, aide on air defense, and on the joint use of in- ticipate fully in the program. to the president of the Russian Federation Kyodo (Tokyo), 12/14/95; in FBIS-EAS-95-241, stallations in the interest of common secu- for military and technical cooperation, and 12/14/95 (5719). Eugene Moosa, Reuter, 12/14/ rity. Aleksandr Kotelkin, director of Russia’s 95; in Executive News Service, 12/14/95 (5719). Interfax (Moscow), 1/25/96; in FBIS-SOV-96-018, 1/25/96 (5727). state-owned Rosvoorouzhenie. Kuwait’s Smerch crews trained originally in St. Pe- 12/26/95 tersburg and exercised in other areas of KAZAKSTAN WITH RUSSIA AND UNITED Japanese Prime Minister Tomiichi Russia. Colonel General Nikolay STATES Murayama tells the upper house audit com- Dimidyuk, commander of Russian troops mittee that Japan intends to continue pur- armed with the Smerch system, says it can 12/6/95* suing TMD with the U.S. Although be used to target rocket launching sites, Murayama says Japan is actively involved The Kazakstani Foreign Ministry states that airfields, tank concentrations, and ground in the U.S. project at the “working level,” Kazakstan has completed the first step to-

148 The Nonproliferation Review/Spring-Summer 1996 Missile Developments troops. MALAYSIA WITH UNITED KINGDOM rean government, North Korea may be in- Viktor Lebedev, Itar-Tass (Moscow), 12/12/95; in creasing its Scud sales to alleviate the cur- FBIS-SOV-95-239, 12/12/95 (5712). 11/25/95* rent food shortage. On 12/30/95, a South The RMN expects to receive two Lekiu Korean government official said North class frigates fitted with eight Exocet Block Korea is “actively developing overseas MALAYSIA II ASMs from the U.K.’s Yarrow Ship- markets” for Scud missiles. North Korean builders in mid-1996. and U.S. officials intend to meet in Ha- Jane’s Defence Weekly, 11/25/95, pp. 31-39 (5690). waii on 1/9/96, possibly to discuss the Scud issue. The South Korean government has billed the U.S.-DPRK meeting as work- INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS ing-level negotiations on North Korea’s re- NORTH KOREA turn of U.S. soldiers’ remains. 11/25/95 Ku Song-chae, Choson Ilbo (Seoul), 12/31/95, p. The Royal Malaysian Navy (RMN) is to 2; in FBIS-EAS-96-001, 12/31/95 (5806). develop and build up to 27 Offshore Patrol Vessels (OPV) over a period of 15 years INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS with a partner that has yet to be named. OMAN Malaysian Defense Minister Datuk Syed 12/2/95* Hamid Syed Jaafar Albar is considering According to Lieutenant General Kim other defense needs including the acquisi- Tong-sin, Director of Operations of the tion of additional anti-ship missiles South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff, the OMAN WITH UNITED KINGDOM (ASMs). The Malaysian Army is consid- DPRK has manufactured 90 more 170-mm ering the purchase of a multi-barrelled and 240-mm multiple launch rocket sys- 11/11/95* rocket launcher, although funding for this tem (MLRS) in 1995 than in 1994 and has does not appear to be available yet. boosted the number of MLRS deployed The U.K.’s Vosper Thornycroft is cur- Jane’s Defence Weekly, 11/25/95, pp. 31-39 (5690). near the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). In rently conducting “weapons acceptance Michael Mecham, Aviation Week & Space Tech- trials” for Oman’s Qahir Al Amwaj Sur- nology, 12/4/95, p. 103 (5690). 1994, North Korea deployed about 190 240-mm MLRS and about 360 170-mm face Naval Vessel (SNV). The Qahir Al Amwaj SNV is scheduled to enter service MALAYSIA WITH: MLRS within range of Seoul, but in 1995, with the Royal Navy of Oman (RNO) in France, 139 the DPRK deployed some 240 240-mm MLRS and some 450 170-mm MLRS. Kim late 1996 and will be equipped with Exocet MM-40 anti-ship missiles, a Thomson-CSF MALAYSIA WITH SOUTH AFRICA notes that North Korea is currently testing engines for the 1,500 km-range Taepo-dong Crotale NG air defense system, a Signaal MW083D surveillance radar, and a Cas- 12/6/95 missiles. Korea Herald (Seoul), 12/2/95, p. 3; in FBIS-EAS- tor surface-to-air missile fire-control ra- South Africa’s Advanced Technologies and 95-232, 12/2/95 (5818). Yu Yong-won, Choson dar. The Qahir Al Amwaj is the first of Engineering says it is developing an Un- Ilbo (Seoul), 12/13/95, p. 6; in FBIS-EAS-95-239, two Muheet project SNVs under construc- manned Aerial Observation System with 12/13/95 (5818). Yi Tong-kwan, Tong-A Ilbo tion for the RNO. The Al Mua-zzar SNV Malaysia’s Integrated Technology Systems. (Seoul), 12/12/95, p. 2; in FBIS EAS-95-239, 12/ 12/95 (5818). Kim Song-kol, Hangyore Sinmun is scheduled for delivery in early 1997. Johan Alberts, chief executive officer of (Seoul), 12/18/95, p. 5; in FBIS-EAS-95-243, 12/ Charles Bickers, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 11/11/95, South Africa’s Denel, says South Africa is 18/95 (5818). p. 26 (5681). International Defense Review, 1/96, interested in establishing alliances with p. 11 (5848). Malaysia for coproducing, codeveloping, NORTH KOREA WITH UNITED STATES and comarketing defense items. South Af- rican industry and government represen- Early 1996 PAKISTAN tatives plan to exploit defense trade ties North Korea and the U.S. are expected to with Malaysia in order to access the South- begin talks concerning North Korea’s for- east Asian arms market. Charles Mansfield, eign sales of Scud missiles. The Scud talks director of defense export services for the are considered a continuation of the re- INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS U.K.’s Ministry of Defence, says “South cently completed effort to negotiate a Africa is now a very aggressive defence nuclear agreement with North Korea. 1/23/96 exporter” and “is determined to get its North Korea and the U.S. are still confer- Pakistani Ambassador Munir Akram tells share of the market.” ring about the time and place of the Scud Jason Glashow, Defense News, 12/11/95-12/17/95, the U.N. Conference on Disarmament in pp. 4, 42 (5721). negotiations. According to the South Ko- Geneva that Pakistan will undertake “ap-

The Nonproliferation Review/Spring-Summer 1996 149 Missile Developments propriate measures” if nuclear-capable 11/16/95 China National Aviation Corporation, and missiles are stationed in proximity to its China releases its “White Paper on Arms the China National Aerospace Corporation. borders. Control and Disarmament.” The White Pa- Officials from the industries of military AFP (Paris), 1/23/96; in FBIS-NES-96-015, 1/23/ per discounts perceptions of a “China aviation, space technology, and defense 96 (5747). Radio Pakistan Network (Islamabad), electronics will showcase products includ- 1/23/96; in FBIS-NES-96-016, 1/23/96 (5747). threat” and criticizes the other nuclear weapon states because they “have neither ing aerospace and avionics components and abandoned their policy of nuclear black- instruments, military and civil aircraft and PAKISTAN WITH: technologies, air traffic control and navi- India, 141 mail nor stopped their development of nuclear weapons and outer-space weapons, gation systems, launch vehicles, propulsion India and United States, 141 including guided-missile defense systems.” systems, satellites, imaging systems, and Italy, PRC, and Russia, 147 China chastises other nations for compet- defense aerospace conversion products and ing with one another to sell advanced weap- services. ons on the international market and for S&T Perspectives, 3/31/95, p. 24 (5787). PERU using arms sales to influence the domestic affairs of other nations. The paper says 11/29/95* China opposes an arms race in outer space, China is currently constructing several war- stating that “no country should develop any ships that will be equipped with the latest kind of weapon to be used in outer space.” missile technology and deployed in Hong INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS Xinhua (Beijing), 11/16/95; in FBIS-CHI-95-221, Kong after 1997. A Chinese military source 11/16/95 (5958). Robert J. Saiget, Washington says China is assembling four or more mis- 1/8/96* Times, 11/17/95, p. A17 (5958). Xinhua (Beijing), sile corvettes at its Shanghai and Dalian 11/16/95; in FBIS-CHI-95-222, 11/16/95 (5958). Peru purchases an “unspecified” number Jane Macartney, Reuter, 11/16/95; in Executive shipyards. of Scud missiles. News Service, 11/17/95 (5958). Xinhua (Beijing), Reuter, 11/27/95; in Executive News Service, 11/ EFE (Madrid), 1/8/96; FBIS-LAT-96-008, 1/8/96 11/16/95; in FBIS-CHI-95-221, 11/16/95 (5958). 29/95 (5804). (5670). 11/25/95 12/2/95* PERU WITH: Forces from the Nanjing military district China National Precision Machinery Im- Bulgaria, 138 conduct combined exercises off southeast- port and Export Corporation distributes a Ecuador, 139 ern Fujian in which a beach landing is sup- photograph of its KS-1 medium-range ported by naval vessels and fighter aircraft SAM. The manufacturer expects the KS-1 firing missiles. Chinese television shows SAM to be the primary medium-range the navy, army, and air force of the Nanjing SAM system deployed by China in the fu- PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF military region participating in a military ture. The 42 km-range, 900 kg KS-1 SAM CHINA exercise off the coast of Fujian, near Tai- has an operational ceiling of 25 km, a wan. The television broadcast says that an length of 5.6 m, a diameter of 0.4 m, and air force battalion recently launched eight a speed of Mach 4. Two of the previously missiles along an unidentified firing range, unknown features of the KS-1 SAM are longitudinal strengthening and a “spiked” INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS all of which struck their targets. Although the television report describes the missile nose. The twin missile launch vehicle is 11/11/95* test as having had “the best results in his- truck-loaded and equipped with a phased array radar. A similar phased array radar China has fitted its new RF-61 surface-to- tory,” the missiles are not shown hitting is also used for the HQ-2B SAM. air missiles (SAM) (Western designation: their targets. Benjamin Kang Lim, Reuter (Beijing), 11/27/95; Jane’s Defence Weekly, 12/2/95, p. 5 (5805). CSA-N-2) on its Jiangwei-class frigates. in Executive News Service, 11/29/95 (5758). The RF-61 is also operational in a land- Reuter, 11/27/95; in Executive News Service, 11/ 12/10/95* based version, the HQ-61. The RF-61 was 29/95 (5823). A Second Artillery Corps base has identi- developed and is built by the China Preci- fied key weaknesses in its standard train- 11/27/95-12/1/95 sion Machinery Import and Export Com- ing program, including the inability of its pany (CPMIEC). The RF-61 reportedly has The Aerospace China ’95 Exhibition and firing units to launch simultaneous nuclear a range of 2.5 km to 12 km, altitude cov- Conference will be held at the China Agri- counterattacks. The base’s suggested re- erage of up to 10,000 m, weight of 320 culture Center in Beijing. The conference forms are confirmed by a Second Artillery kg, maximum speed of Mach 3, and guid- will be sponsored by the Commission on Corps Training Work Conference. In the ance by semi-active continuous wave ra- Science, Technology, and Industry for Na- past three years, the base has developed a dar. tional Defense (COSTIND), the State Sci- series of command measures, including Jane’s Defence Weekly, 11/11/95, p. 3 (5773). ence and Technology Commission, the “rationalized command formation, simpli-

150 The Nonproliferation Review/Spring-Summer 1996 Missile Developments fied communication, digitized command 1/14/96* PRC WITH: telegrams and papers, and automated aux- In an article in The Washington Times, Iran, 143 iliary decisionmaking.” New equipment James Hackett says China appears to have Israel, Italy, and Russia, 145 has been developed to improve training, made advances in converting some of its Italy, Pakistan, and Russia, 147 including “an automatic cable network 600 km-range M-9 and 1,800 km-range Japan, 147 missile test system” designed to increase DF-21 SSMs to carry non-nuclear war- combat survivability of strategic missile heads so they can be used in regional con- PRC WITH RUSSIA units. It was determined that training must flict situations. M-9 and DF-21 SSMs are differentiate between the requirements of already capable of delivering nuclear, veteran soldiers and raw recruits. The prob- chemical, or biological warheads. 1/96* lem of maintaining a baseline of readiness James Hackett, Washington Times, 1/14/96, p. B4 China plans to purchase between 150 and following the loss of veteran soldiers upon (5951). 200 upgraded X-band Zhuk radars from demobilization was also recognized. New Russia’s Phazotron design bureau for its training techniques have been developed 1/29/96* F-8II and Chengdu J-10/J-9 fighter aircraft, to deal with weaknesses in other areas such Deficiencies in China’s ability to operate according to officials from Phazotron. In as logistical support, live ammunition missile-armed fast-attack craft far from 2/96, the new system will be displayed in launch, combat-readiness, and developing shore are addressed through maneuvers a Chinese F-8II jet fighter at the Asian a dependable launch capability. intended to improve fast-attack units’ train- Aerospace show in Singapore. It is reported Zhang Jiajun and Liu Shengdong, Jiefangjun Bao ing for supply and refueling capabilities and that the new Zhuk radar is capable of track- (Beijing), 12/10/95, p. 1; in FBIS-CHI-96-020, 12/ logistics. Fast-attack units traditionally are while-scan on 24 targets at a detection 10/95 (5952). unable to “see” very far, creating prob- range beyond the current 80 km capabil- lems in targeting. During these maneuvers, ity. The new radar is also capable of dis- 12/18/95* a fast-attack unit used aircraft to coordi- playing eight targets simultaneously and The Chinese defense journal Jiefangjun nate its offense, enabling the unit to ap- can give fire-control solution for up to four Bao reports that the Chinese Air Force proach the enemy undetected, engage, and at the same time. In late 1995, Russia de- Missile Academy’s air defense research resupply its own forces. livered the first of two Kopyo radar sets to focuses on the following technologies: anti- Wang Guangxin and Teng Xiaobo, Jiefangjun Bao China. jamming equipment, anti-stealth equip- (Beijing), 1/29/96, p. 2; in FBIS-CHI-96-025, 1/ International Defense Review, 1/96, p. 10 (5938). ment, and “counter-counter-radiation 29/96 (5755). missiles” [electronic counter-counter-mea- 1/5/96 1/31/96* sures]. The Academy has tried to refit older The Russian Armaments Company, air defense equipment with upgraded tech- China includes a new model of the Dawn- Rosvoorouzhenie, has arranged for the nologies. The guidance, tracking, and series mass parallel programming (MPP) Severnyy plant in St. Petersburg to pro- range of low-altitude SAMs has also been supercomputer, the Dawn-3,000, in its duce and deliver 120 S-300 SAM systems improved. Upgrading air defense simula- “Ninth Five-Year Plan.” The project is to China. The Severnyy plant was once a tion for training has been important to the scheduled to commence before 7/96, with “closed” production facility for S-200 and Air Force, as has been improving the real- computers up and running by 1998. The S-300 SAM systems. China did not pay for ism of tactical-level training. new supercomputer will be capable of per- the missiles in hard currency but by barter Li Zhiwei and Yao Zhisheng, JieFangJun Bao forming 300 billion calculations per sec- in “the form of flasks, dinner services, and (Beijing), 12/18/95, p. 2; in FBIS-CHI-95-249, 12/ ond, and follows the successful 18/95 (5799). fluffy stuffed dogs.” According to German development of the Dawn-1,000 in 1995 Gardymov, general director of the during the “Eighth Five-Year Plan.” MPP Severnyy factory association, payments 12/21/95* series computers with speeds over 200 bil- The PLA’s Second Artillery has completed from China most often come in the form lion calculations per second will have im- of low quality goods, such as lighters, the construction of a country-wide system portant applications in meteorology, of M-9 missile bases. Under the project, which cannot be sold for hard currency. theoretical physics, nuclear fusion, and NTV (Moscow), 1/5/96; in FBIS-TAC-96-003, 1/ called the “Great Wall Project,” China chemistry computations. 5/96 (5942). built dozens of missile bases, many using Qin Chun, Xinhua Domestic Service (Beijing), 1/ transporter-erector-launchers (TELs). The 31/96; in FBIS-CHI-96-024, 1/31/96 (5953). PRC WITH SPAIN project was begun 12 years ago, and progress was accelerated in 1994. Due to 1/23/96* early completion, China is able to deploy Eduardo Abellan, president of Spain’s M-9 missiles in the Nanjing Military District Bazan National Enterprise, travels to China for use in its missile tests off of Taiwan. Far Eastern Economic Review, 12/21/95, p. 14 to discuss the possible sale of two 20,000 (5774). ton fixed wing aircraft carriers. The type

The Nonproliferation Review/Spring-Summer 1996 151 Missile Developments of aircraft carrier being discussed, a so- 11/26/95* to wait until the period of better weather called “pocket aircraft carrier,’’ has not China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) between April and December. According yet been marketed. The aircraft carrier is has established a Joint Command Center to a military source, the exercise was to 205 m long and could carry about 21 or 22 in Fuzhou, Fujian province, designed to have been held in mid-12/95 but was put aircraft, possibly the F-18 or the naval focus PLA intelligence, logistics and other off in favor of two missile tests in the East variant of the MiG-29. The contract would operations against Taiwan. The center is China Sea and a joint training exercise on be divided into two stages, with construc- reportedly under direct control of the Tungshan island. tion of the hull and propulsion system in PLA’s Central Military Commission and Tzu-Li Wan-Pao (Taipei), 1/5/96, p. 2; in FBIS- the first and acquisition of weapons sys- General Staff Department, and will work CHI-96-008, 1/5/96 (5785). tems in the second. The price of each car- closely with the Nanjing Military region. 1/15/96* rier, not including the weapons systems, The center is expected to set up or re-es- would be 45 billion pesetas. Chinese For- tablish military and engineering facilities China conditionally cancels plans for fur- eign Ministry Spokesman Chen Jian denies in Fujian and Zhejiang provinces. Conven- ther military exercises aimed at Taiwan the report of negotiations, saying China tional PLA units, missiles, aircraft, artil- during the period leading up to Taiwan’s does not intend to import or develop air- lery, and airborne and amphibious units 3/96 elections. The decision not to hold craft carriers. have already been deployed to the two exercises is conditioned upon Taiwan Presi- Luis Ayllon, ABC (Madrid), 1/23/96, p. 23; in provinces. The main role of the center is dent Lee Teng-hui’s “behaving himself” FBIS-TAC-96-001, 1/23/96 (5783). Xinhua reportedly to make preparations to threaten before the election, according to sources (Beijing), 1/23/96; in FBIS-TAC-96-001, 1/23/96 in Beijing. Taiwan expects China to con- (5783). or attack Taiwan. The center played an important role in the recent military exer- duct further tests and large-scale troop de- ployments to constrain Taiwanese PRC WITH TAIWAN cises along the Fujian coast, according to Western military analysts. independence aspirations. According to recent reports, China will conduct a major 11/95* Willy Wo-Lap Lam, South China Sunday Morning Post (Hong Kong), 11/26/95, p. 5; in FBIS-CHI- missile test in 2/96. Professor of Strategic and Defence Stud- 95-227, 11/26/95 (5836). Wu Zhong, Hong Kong Standard (Hong Kong), 1/ ies at the Australian National University 15/96, p. 1; in FBIS-CHI-96-010, 1/15/96 (5786). Desmond Ball says Taiwanese electronic 11/27/95 intelligence has catalogued the performance Five days in advance of Taiwan’s parlia- 1/25/96* parameters of all signal-emitting electronic mentary elections, China broadcasts tele- In response to a New York Times report of systems on China’s new Su-27 aircraft. vision footage of a Chinese air force a potential Chinese military strike against This includes the aircraft’s missile track- battalion test-firing eight (surface-to-sur- Taiwan, a Taiwanese government spokes- ing and fire control modes and the full face missile) SSMs with live ammunition. man says there is no reliable evidence that range of its electronic counter-measures. The Chinese state-run station says each mis- such an attack is planned. Taiwan’s Presi- Jane’s Intelligence Review, 11/95, pp. 506-510 sile hit its target successfully. Noting that dent Lee Teng-hui, however, appeals to the (5820). China rarely broadcasts its exercises, a United States to continue the sale of de- fensive arms to Taiwan in order to main- 11/16/95* Western diplomat says the images are in- tended as a warning against Taiwan’s as- tain stability. According to Japanese media China will conduct missile exercises in the pirations to independence. reports, China recently deployed large Taiwan Strait on the eve of Taiwan’s elec- Benjamin Kang Lim, Reuter (Beijing), 11/27/95; numbers of missile forces and military air- tions, according to an informed military in Executive News Service, 11/29/95 (5758). craft in Fujian Province. Although Taiwan source. The missile tests, designed to in- has not officially responded to these re- duce “absolute shock” in Taiwan, are 1/5/96* ports, a senior analyst at Taiwan’s Sun Yat- scheduled for 3/96. Chinese Foreign Min- China will conduct a large-scale military sen University says he would be “more istry spokesman Shen Guofang denies any exercise combining its naval and air forces surprised if China was not moving forces knowledge of the reported tests. Another in the East and South China Seas, accord- closer to Taiwan.” In 12/95, China con- military exercise, which will be conducted ing to military intelligence sources. The ducted military exercises off the coast of on Dongshan Island, off the coast of Fujian intent is to conduct blockade and anti-block- Taiwan in conjunction with the island’s and Guangdong, is scheduled to take place ade drills with submarines and to test the legislative elections. before the end of 1995. compatibility of China’s East and South Rupert Hayes, Voice of America, 1/25/96; in Leng Mou, Kuang Chiao Ching (Hong Kong), 11/ China Sea fleets. The anti-blockade exer- Newswire (online) (5945). 16/95, No. 278, pp. 6-9; in FBIS-CHI-95-229, 11/ 16/95 (5835). Wang Yu-yan, Lien Ho Pao (Hong cise is reportedly called “Haijing” (Sea Kong), 11/24/95, p. 8; in FBIS-CHI-95-226, 11/ Whale). The exercise is thought to be in- Early 2/96 24/95 (5835). tended to influence Taiwan’s presidential China will conduct a military exercise off elections, because China does not usually the coast of Taiwan, staged from the coast conduct exercises in February, preferring of Fujian Province. China plans to use the

152 The Nonproliferation Review/Spring-Summer 1996 Missile Developments exercises to mark the one-year anniversary 1/26/96 Mikhail Melnik and Raisa Stetsyura, Itar-Tass (Mos- of President Jiang Zemin’s speech on Tai- cow), 1/31/96; in FBIS-SOV-96-022, 1/31/96 Taiwan’s acting Foreign Ministry spokes- (5784). Interfax (Moscow), 1/30/96; in FBIS-SOV- wan and to intimidate those Taiwanese who man Chen Yung-chuo thanks the U.S. Con- 96-021, 1/30/96 (5784). Interfax (Moscow), 1/30/ favor independence, according to Chinese gress for urging President Clinton to hasten 96; in FBIS-CHI-96-003, 1/30/96 (5943). sources. According to former U.S. Assis- the delivery of the Patriot missile defense tant Secretary of Defense Charles Freeman system ordered by Taiwan. On 1/25/96, PRC WITH UNITED STATES Jr., China has planned a 30-day attack on U.S. Congressmen Tom Lantos and Gerald Taiwan, which will involve firing one mis- Solomon wrote a letter to President Clinton 11/18/95* sile a day, after Taiwan’s presidential elec- in which they expressed concern over The U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bu- tions. China’s recent military activities toward reau of Export Administration denies an Pamela Pun and Apple Wan, Hong Kong Standard Taiwan, and recommended that the U.S. application by the U.S. company (Hong Kong), 1/26/96, p. 1; in FBIS-CHI-96-018, 1/26/96 (5791). strongly communicate its concern for AlliedSignal Engines for permission to sell Taiwan’s security to Beijing. Lantos and turbofan engine technology to China. The Solomon said the immediate delivery of the PRC WITH TAIWAN AND technology used in the TFE731-2A-2A en- Patriot system, previously scheduled to be gine could be used in aircraft as well as UNITED STATES delivered at a later date, was a suitable re- cruise missiles. China intends to use the sponse to China’s recent military exercises. 1/4/96 technology for its K-8 trainer. AlliedSignal Lantos and Solomon added that the Patriot had already exported 40 of the engines to Former U.S. Assistant Secretary of De- system, which has been improved since the China and plans to export another 18. This fense Charles Freeman, Jr. tells President Gulf War, is a purely defensive weapon contract will not be affected by the license Clinton’s National Security Adviser An- with no offensive capabilities. application rejection, but AlliedSignal will thony Lake that the People’s Liberation Benjamin Yeh, CNA (Taipei), 1/27/96; in FBIS- not be permitted to give the Chinese ac- Army has plans to launch one conventional CHI-96-019, 1/27/96 (5944). cess to production technology. missile per day for 30 days against Taiwan Jane’s Defence Weekly, 11/18/95, p. 15 (5810). in the event of the expected reelection of PRC WITH UKRAINE Taiwanese President Lee Tung-Hui in late 12/28/95 3/96. Freeman held meetings with senior 12/4/95 China launches an Echostar-1 communi- officials in China during the winter of 1995- Chinese President Jiang Zemin and Ukrai- cations satellite into geostationary orbit 96. Freeman cites a Chinese official as stat- nian President Leonid Kuchma hold talks with its Long March-2E (LM-2E) space ing that the U.S. would not intervene in China concerning cooperation between launch vehicle (SLV). On 11/28/95, an militarily because its leaders “care more China and Ukraine in several fields, in- Asiasat-2 satellite was successfully about Los Angeles than they do about Tai- cluding aviation and space technology. launched by China Great Wall Industry wan.” He characterizes this statement as Xinhua (Beijing), 12/4/95; in FBIS-CHI-95-232, Corporation (CGWIC) on a LM-2E SLV. 12/4/95 (5814). an indirect nuclear threat aimed at the U.S. China’s Long March-3B (LM-3B) is sched- In a speech to U.S. businessmen after the 1/29/96 uled to launch an Intelsat-708 on its maiden report, President Lee requests that Wash- flight in 2/96 out of Xichang. The LM-3B Three Chinese and a group of Ukrainian ington continue selling weapons to Taiwan is a hybrid of the Long March-3A—which workers from the Yuzhmash design bureau for its defense, in accordance with the Tai- is itself a Long March 3, with a cryogenic are apprehended for espionage in wan Relations Act. On 1/24/96, China de- upper third stage—and the Long March- Dnepropetrovsk. The Chinese reportedly nies the report of the plan, calling it “totally 2E’s strap-on liquid-fuel booster. It is ca- acquired designs from the Yuzhmash work- groundless.” pable of delivering a 4,800 kg payload into Patrick E. Tyler, New York Times, 1/24/96, p. A3 ers on booster engine development for geostationary orbit, a capability compa- (5957). Jeffrey Parker, Washington Times, 1/25/ ICBMs and intended to smuggle them back rable to that of the Europe Space Agency 96, p. A15 (5957). Apple Wan, Hong Kong Stan- to China in violation of the MTCR. The dard (Hong Kong), 1/26/96, p. 6; in FBIS-CHI- Ariane 44L. 96-018, 1/26/96 (5957). three Chinese are expelled from Ukraine. Tim Furniss, Flight International, 1/10/96-1/16/96, The Chinese embassy in Ukraine denies the p. 22 (5756). 1/11/96* charges of espionage, saying the three were Chinese leader Qiao Shi says he does not energy experts who were in Ukraine to par- 1/4/96 believe the U.S. would intervene to defend ticipate in an information exchange and to Critics say the U.S.-China Joint Defense Taiwan from China. He says, even if the negotiate commercial agreements. On 1/ Conversion Commission’s provision of an U.S. did intervene, China would not be 30/96, the three Chinese individuals are integrated air traffic control network to constrained and could counterattack against expelled and banned from entering Ukraine China’s Civil Aviation Authority could en- targets such as New York. for five years, in accordance with Article able China to improve its military capa- Chen Yu-wei, Lien Ho Tsao Pao (Singapore), 1/ 32 of the law “On the Legal Status of For- bilities. On 1/4/96, Eden Woon, a former 11/96, p. 14; in FBIS-CHI-96-023, 1/11/96 (5956). eigners.”

The Nonproliferation Review/Spring-Summer 1996 153 Missile Developments country director for China at the Pentagon 10/13/95 tary Space Forces (RKA)—for Proton and the current executive director of the Russian Prime Minister Viktor launches. Washington State China Relations Coun- Chernomyrdin tells the State Duma that Peter B. de Selding, Space News, 11/13/95-11/26/ cil, says the project not only helps China Russia produced new surface-to-air mis- 95, p. 38 (5868). in a humanitarian way but also provides sile (SAM) technology in 1995 despite eco- 11/10/95 opportunities for U.S. suppliers of aircraft nomic difficulties. and radar. On 10/4/95, Retired Captain Jane’s Intelligence Review Pointer, 11/95, p. 7 A Russian missile regiment test-fires a Zeke Zardeskas, the former head of the (5713). Topol class ICBM from the state missile U.S. Navy’s electronic warfare group, said range at Plesetsk, in Arkhangelsk. The test that a civilian aircraft control radar is simi- 10/5/95 concludes the regiment’s summer tactical lar to an air defense command radar. Russian President Boris Yeltsin signs a de- combat training. According to the main Zardeskas stated that although the military cree which states that Rosvoorouzhenie and staff of the Russian Missile Forces, the applications of such a radar would be de- certain arms development and production missile struck its target with “great accu- fensive in nature, it could be used to moni- ventures designated by the president will racy.” Colonel General Igor Sergeyev, tor tactical aircraft but would probably not conduct all of Russia’s arms import and commander-in-chief of Russia’s strategic be capable of detecting ballistic missiles. export activities. The decree states that missile forces, says “the successful launch- On 1/4/96, Retired Vice Admiral Eric Russia will ensure that previous decisions ing has been excellent,” which is proof of McVadon says civilian air traffic control regarding “military-technological coopera- the “high reliability and efficiency of Rus- equipment could have some military uses, tion with foreign countries” conform to the sian missiles.” new provisions. Anatoliy Yurkin, Itar-Tass (Moscow), 11/10/95; in but China could also acquire the same ca- FBIS-TAC-95-006, 11/10/95 (5730). pabilities by other means and from other “Decree Of The President Of The Russian Federa- tion On Russian Military-Technological Coopera- countries. tion With Foreign Countries,” 10/5/95; in 11/29/95* Jason Glashow, Defense News, 1/8/96, pp. 1, 20 Rossiiskaya Gazeta, 10/17/95 (5932). (5940). Russia is to increase the operational life- time of its SS-19 ICBMs from 10 to 25 11/95 years. According to General Sergeyev, the Alexander Lebedev, deputy director gen- Russian strategic nuclear arsenal will con- RUSSIA eral of Russia’s Khrunichev State Research sist of SS-19 and Topol-M ICBMs, and an and Production Space Center, says his cen- improved version of the SS-25 “Sickle” ter has developed a Breeze upper-stage for ICBM which is near completion. Sergeyev the Proton space launcher which is sched- says production of the Topol-M will begin uled for launch in 1998. Lebedev says INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS after flight testing finishes in 1996. It is Russia is also producing a Breeze-K en- not clear whether the SS-19s will be modi- 6/30/95* gine for the Rockot spacecraft, which will fied from six- to single-warhead missiles. be launched from the Plesetsk Russia’s NIIGrafit research institute is de- Flight International, 11/29/95-12/5/95, p. 17 Cosmodrome. The Breeze-K has already (5733). veloping a top-secret ballistic missile re- been launched three times from Baikonur. ferred to as Project X. The new missile The new Breeze-M stage, which is the same Early 12/95 has been described as “a cross between a as the Breeze-K but includes an extra fuel Russia finishes dismantling 100 RS-12 stra- satellite and an airplane.” Although the new tank, will be used on the Proton. Accord- tegic missiles at the Perm missile and space system can travel at a speed of more than ing to Lebedev, the new upper stage for complex. According to Mikhail 3,000 km/h, similar to a ballistic missile, the Proton will be used to transport heavier Sokolovskiy, general director of the Iskra its maneuverability is comparable to that payloads of up to 3.2 tons into geostation- scientific production association, the mis- of a cruise missile. The nuclear-capable ary orbit. Lebedev says Russia’s Rockot is siles were withdrawn from service and dis- missile can be placed into orbit from a stra- based on the SS-19 missile and has been mantled in compliance with START I. The tegic bomber or a rocket booster. The mis- launched successfully on several occasions. missiles will be recycled in conjunction sile can overcome Strategic Defense Lebedev also says Russia will be able to with the Kirov scientific production asso- Initiative (SDI)-type weapons because they launch the Rockot between eight and 10 ciation and Mashinostroytel works. Ac- cannot make the calculations quickly times per year, although it can only launch cording to specialists from “several enough to determine the missile’s trajec- one satellite at a time. He adds that if Rus- American firms,” the Perm facility has the tory. Although the Bora-1 and Bora-2 pro- sia can modify the launcher’s fairing to technological capacity to become a Rus- totypes of the missile disintegrated on carry two satellites, the Rockot would be- sian Center for Missile Recycling. re-entry, NIIGrafit added new technology come much more marketable. According Leonid Bagdatyev, Itar-Tass (Moscow), 12/4/95; to the Bora-4 and Bora-5 versions which to Lebedev, the Khrunichev Center has a in FBIS-UMA-95-234-S, 12/4/95 (5718). returned successfully to earth. S & T Perspectives, 6/30/95, p. 7 (5892). two-year plan—agreed to by Russia’s Mili-

154 The Nonproliferation Review/Spring-Summer 1996 Missile Developments

12/21/95* RUSSIA WITH: RUSSIA WITH UKRAINE Russian military specialists successfully test Australia, 137 a new, 400 km-range tactical missile at the Austria, Iraq, and Jordan, 137 11/28/95 State Central Test Range at Kapustin Yar Belarus, 137 A Ukrainian Defense Ministry source says in the Astrakhan region. The 5 ton, solid- France, 139 that 40 percent of Ukraine’s 1,600 nuclear fuel missile will be deployed with conven- India, 142 warheads have been sent to Russia for de- tional warheads by the Russian Army. The Iran, 143 struction and all the warheads will be with- missile system is installed on-board an am- drawn from Ukraine by late 1998. “Russian Iraq, 145 phibious, quad-axle, mobile launcher. The Air Force commander” Pyotr Deinekin missile has a reduced radar cross section Iraq and Jordan, 144 says Moscow will purchase 19 Tu-160 and is equipped with counter-measures to Iraq, Jordan, and United States, 145 Blackjack bombers and 25 Tu-95 Bear evade enemy air defenses. The new mis- Israel, 145 bombers from Ukraine. Under the approxi- sile is more accurate than the 120 km-range Israel, and PRC, 145 mately $1.5 billion “barter compensation SS-21 “Tochka” SSM—which has an ac- Italy, Pakistan, and PRC, 147 scheme,” Russia will also provide Ukraine curacy of 8 m—because it incorporates a Kazakstan, 148 with “spare parts, technical documentation, computerized inertial flight-control system. Kazakstan and United States, 148 and technical aviation services.” Deinekin A crew of five men can operate the mis- Kuwait, 148 adds that Russia also intends to acquire sile. Russian Defense Ministry officials say PRC, 151 more than 3,000 cruise missiles from the threat of NATO expansion could speed Ukraine. According to other sources, the Russia’s development of the new multipur- number of cruise missiles involved in the RUSSIA WITH SOUTH KOREA pose battlefield missile. The new missile planned transfer is estimated at 300. Ac- “could be deployed within two years.” cording to a Russian Air Force official, Sergey Novikov, Segodnya, 12/21/95, p. 9 (5931). 11/8/95* the transfer will be conducted in two Post-Soviet Nuclear and Defense Monitor, 11/30/ Russia is negotiating the sale of its S-300V 95, p. 11 (5871). phases, with the first phase involving anti-missile system to South Korea. The Ukraine’s delivery to Russia of 10 TU-160 S-300V anti-missile system was exhibited bombers, 15 TU-95 bombers, and approxi- Late 1995 by the Russian Rosvooruzheniye State In an interview, Reneli Abramenko, a mately 300 cruise missiles. Company at the Defense Seoul ’95 inter- Post-Soviet Nuclear and Defense Monitor, 11/30/ member of the Russian Academy of Sci- national arms exhibition. According to a 95, p. 11 (5871). Anton Zhigulsky, Defense News, ences, says Russia has developed a “de- senior South Korean military source, South 12/4/95-12/10/95, p. 40 (5871). Washington Times, fensive plasma weapon” which focuses Korea is examining the possibility of cre- 11/25/95, p. A9 (5871). Oleksandr Pukhov, electromagnetic beams “in the Intelnews (Kiev), 12/30/95; in FBIS-SOV-96-001, ating an anti-air defense system with S-300 12/30/95 (5732). atmosphere’s upper layers” that can strike surface-to-air missiles from Russia. The targets “travelling at nearsonic or super- U.S. makers of the Patriot missile, to which Late 11/95 sonic speeds.” Abramenko says the elec- the S-300 is most often compared, are Russian Defense Minister Pavel Grachev tromagnetic beams create a cloud of highly making offers of their own, including Pa- and Ukrainian Defense Minister Valeriy ionized air at an elevation of 50 km. Rock- triot missiles that are more advanced than Shmarov agree to jointly fund a “ballistic ets and planes travelling through the cloud what the U.S. forces in Korea currently missile defense system,” which will uti- “lose their trajectory and are destroyed due use. The cost of the S-300 is two-thirds lize former Soviet radars in Ukraine. The to horrendous overloading.” that of the Patriot. An unconfirmed report Jane’s Intelligence Review Pointer, 11/95, p. 7 two defense ministers also agree to Russia’s (5728). said several hundred Russian specialists are acquisition from Ukraine of 32 SS-19 “Sti- currently working in South Korean indus- letto” ICBMs. Russia has already dis- 1/23/96 try, 30 at Samsung alone. For example, mantled 10 of its 170 SS-19 ICBMs, but Russia’s First Deputy Minister for Defense, Igor Timofeyev, previously a designer with recently announced that it wants to keep Andrey Kokoshin, says Russian designers the Russian Almaz Company, which pro- the SS-19s in order to preserve the have almost completed a long-term mili- duced the S-300 PMU air defense missile country’s nuclear arsenal “at the necessary tary development program which will pro- system, is now manager of the advanced level until 2009.” Under START II, Rus- vide Moscow with the best Multiple electronics systems group for the South sia is allowed to keep 105 of its SS-19 Independently Targetted Reentry Vehicles Korean Samsung Company. ICBMs in silos. Moscow now wants to re- Aleksandr Sychov, Izvestiya, 10/10/95, p. 3; in tain all of its SS-19s in silos. Grachev and (MIRVed) missiles in the world. Current Digest, 11/8/95, p. 24 (5813). Yonhap Rossiyskaya Gazeta, 1/25/96, p. 1 (5880). (Seoul), 2/20/96; in FBIS-EAS-96-034, 2/20/96 Shmarov also sign an agreement regard- (5764). ing Russian and Ukrainian cooperation in “the military use of outer space,” and agree to regularly exchange information in this

The Nonproliferation Review/Spring-Summer 1996 155 Missile Developments field. Vladimir Ivanov, commander of Late 4/95 95, p. 9 (5894). Post-Soviet Nuclear and Defense Russia’s military space forces, says his Monitor, 12/19/95, p. 12 (5894). Warren Ferster, The U.S. purchases a highly classified Rus- Space News, 1/15/96-1/21/96, pp. 4, 21 (5894). personnel are ready to launch Ukrainian- sian S-300 ZRK SAM system from Russia’s built Sich-1 and Sich-2 satellites from Rosvoorouzhenie. Rosvoorouzhenie nego- 1/96 Russia’s Plesetsk launch-site “as soon as tiates the sale in accordance with “Russian The U.S.’s Lockheed-Martin selects the Ukraine is ready.” Moscow and Kiev also Federation Government ruling No. 1841- RD-180 liquid fuel rocket engine for the indicate their willingness to jointly use rs” of 11/26/94. The U.S. firm G.R.A. Atlas IIAR booster. Pratt and Whitney says space command, control, and telemetry Trading Company Inc. arbitrates the esti- the RD-180 will be launch-ready in 12/98. systems located in Ukraine. Russia and mated $100 million transaction. Russia’s The RD-180 will also be used as the Ukraine continue to disagree on how to Volkhov Defense Systems, a private joint- “baseline engine” in Lockheed-Martin’s implement an air defense system for the stock company, acts as subcontractor and bid to produce the Evolved Expendable Soviet successor states. general investor for the deal. Prior to this Post-Soviet Nuclear & Defense Monitor, 11/30/95, Launch Vehicle (EELV) for the U.S. Air deal, Russia had kept the S-300’s technol- Force. The Russian government needs to p. 11 (5729). Washington Times, 11/25/95, p. A9 ogy secret. Some U.S. specialists are con- (5871). Brian Killen, Reuter, 11/24/95; in Execu- approve export licenses for the RD-180 tive News Service, 11/24/95 (5871). Interfax (Mos- cerned the new Russian S-300 system may before the deal can proceed. Russia’s State cow), 12/25/95; in FBIS-SOV-95-247, 12/25/95 be able to detect and destroy stealth air- (5871). Mikhail Melnik, Itar-Tass (Moscow), 12/ Committee for Defense Industries is against craft. According to a former analyst from selling the RD-180 cryogenic engine on the 27/95; in FBIS-SOV-95-249, 12/27/95 (5871). the Russian Main Intelligence Directorate Marta Kolomayets, The Ukrainian Weekly, 12/3/ grounds it would severely damage Russia’s 95, pp. 1, 4 (5871). Current Digest of the Post- of the General Staff, the S-300 ZRK’s ra- defense capabilities. The committee asserts Soviet Press, 12/27/95, pp. 27-28 (5870). dar system can detect and engage Ameri- that selling the NK-33 engine would be can stealth aircraft with a 99 percent “more profitable to Russia.” Late 1/96 success rate. Financial constraints report- Flight International, 1/24/96-1/30/96, p. 22 (5872). Russia transfers four missile-equipped TU- edly prevent Russia from developing a Joseph C. Anselmo, Aviation Week and Space Tech- 22M3 heavy bombers to Ukraine as part more sophisticated system to succeed the nology, 1/22/96, p. 59 (5872). of Kiev’s share of the Black Sea Fleet. The now declassified S-300 ZRK. bombers have a combat radius of 4,000 km Denis Baranets, Moskovskiye Novosti (Moscow), 10/ 1/15/96* and were built in Kazan in 1990. 1/95-10/8/95, p. 29; in FBIS-SOV-95-224-S, 11/ Russian government officials say they are 21/95 (5877). Vitaliy Tsebriy, Kiyevskiye Vedomosti (Kiev), 1/ discouraged by the U.S.’s unwillingness to 31/96, p. 3; in FBIS-SOV-96-023, 1/31/96 (5725). negotiate a higher quota of commercial sat- 11/95 ellite launches for Russia’s Proton rocket. RUSSIA WITH UNITED STATES The U.S.’s Aerojet and Russia’s NK En- The officials say the U.S. government has gines finish testing a liquid-oxygen/kero- been unable to “find time” to discuss the 1995 sene NK-33 rocket engine at Sacramento, issue, despite having been asked to do so Two U.S.-Russian entities compete to sup- California. Aerojet plans to import and sell repeatedly over the past nine months. The ply a rocket engine for Lockheed-Martin’s the engine and eventually to develop the officials say the quota will be a high prior- Atlas booster. Russia’s NPO Energomash capability to produce them in the U.S. The ity at the 1/29/96 meeting of the U.S.-Rus- plans to build a modified version of the NK-33 is competing for Lockheed-Martin’s sian Joint Commission on Energy and Russian RD-170, which is currently in ser- engine requirement for the Atlas booster. Space in Washington. The commission es- Post-Soviet Nuclear and Defense Monitor, 11/30/ vice as the first stage of the Zenit space 95, p. 9 (5894). Flight International, 11/8/95-11/ tablished the Proton launch quota in 9/93. booster. The new RD-180 will be built at 14/95, p. 32 (5894). Space News, 1/15/96-1/21/96, p. 2 (5875). Energomash’s Khimki factory near Mos- cow and Lockheed-Martin has chosen Pratt 12/95 Late 1/96 and Whitney to jointly develop the engine The Russian Defense Ministry restricts the A Russian delegation is scheduled to ar- with the Russian firm. The second con- transfer of the NK-33 rocket engine to the rive in the U.S. to demand that Washing- tender is the NK-33 engine which is pro- U.S. The Ministry claims the $5 million ton increase Moscow’s commercial satellite duced by Russia’s NK Engines and is being export license purchased by Aerojet is “ab- launch quota. U.S. Trade Representative tested by Aerojet in Sacramento. Aerojet surd because of the low price” and because officials are ready to increase Moscow’s plans to import and sell the engines and the U.S. has modified the terms of the con- quota from nine to 20 geostationary eventually to produce them in the U.S. tract to permit the NK-33 to carry military launches through 2000, which will give Post-Soviet Nuclear and Defense Monitor, 11/30/ payloads. According to media sources, the Russia the right to launch the same num- 95, p. 9 (5894). Post-Soviet Nuclear and Defense ber of commercial payloads as Ukraine and Monitor, 12/19/95, p. 12 (5894). Warren Ferster, Russian Defense Ministry would prefer Space News, 11/6/95-11/12/95, p. 6 (5894). War- Lockheed-Martin to purchase the RD-180 China. Russian officials are expected to ren Ferster, Space News, 1/15/96-1/21/96, pp. 4, engine. lobby for a higher quota and the eventual 21 (5894). Post-Soviet Nuclear and Defense Monitor, 11/30/ elimination of limits on the number of com-

156 The Nonproliferation Review/Spring-Summer 1996 Missile Developments mercial launches that Moscow is allowed arms race between South and North Ko- to conduct. However, it would be difficult rea. Some experts believe that South Ko- for Russia to conduct more than four com- SOUTH KOREA rea has covertly continued design work on mercial Proton launches from the Baikonur the NHK-2 SSM. On 12/6/95, Director of Cosmodrome each year through 2000 be- the Nonproliferation Policy Education Cen- cause of domestic demands. ter Henry Sokolski says a new missile, the Joseph C. Anselmo, Aviation Week and Space Tech- SOUTH KOREA WITH: NHK-A, may already be in production in nology, 1/22/96, p. 57 (5936). Israel, 146 South Korea. A U.S. government source Russia, 155 also says South Korea has “missile aspira- tions beyond the limits of NHK-2.” The SOUTH AFRICA SOUTH KOREA WITH UNITED STATES U.S. and South Korea have begun nego- tiations on South Korea’s possible admit- 11/3/95 tance to the MTCR. According to U.S. During the 27th Annual ROK-U.S. Secu- officials, the U.S. is opposed to abrogat- ing the MOU, but wishes to continue talks, INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS rity Consultative Meeting, U.S. Secretary of Defense William Perry says the U.S. is because the MTCR issue is important to the South Korean government. The U.S. 11/25/95* committed to protecting South Korea with considers its military protection to be suf- South Africa is pursuing several advanced its nuclear weapons. At the meeting in Seoul, the two countries express their con- ficient for South Korea, eliminating the stand-off weapon programs, including the need for indigenous South Korean long- turbojet-propelled “Multi-Purpose Stand- cern about North Korea’s long-range mis- sile development. In a separate private range missiles. Off Weapon ” (MUPSOW) and a Denel Theresa Hitchens, Defense News, 12/11/95-12/17/ Kentron long-range stand-off weapon with meeting, Secretary Perry and ROK Defense 95, p. 22 (5802). Hanguk Ilbo (Seoul), 11/30/95, flip-out wings. MUPSOW is a “dispenser Minister Yi Yang-ho agree to hold talks to p. 2; in FBIS-TAC-95-007, 11/30/95 (5802). De- weapon,” while Denel Kentron’s stand-off discuss the potential abrogation of a bilat- fense News, 12/4/95-12/10/95, p. 2 (5802). Evan eral letter of guarantee between the U.S. S. Medeiros, Arms Control Today, 12/95-1/96, p. weapon is comparable to the U.S. Joint 25 (5761). Stand-Off Weapon and incorporates a pen- and South Korea that restricts the ROK to developing missiles with ranges of no more etration warhead capable of destroying 12/95-1/96* “hardened point targets.” South Africa’s than 180 km. They also agree to discuss South Korea’s potential membership in the After initially rejecting a request made by Kentron is also developing a Long-Range South Korea during the 11/27/95-11/30/ Anti-Aircraft Missile with “rocket/ramjet” MTCR . KBS-1 Radio Network (Seoul), 11/3/95; in FBIS- 95 U.S.-South Korean security talks in propulsion and an imaging infrared seeker. EAS-95-213, 11/3/95 (5960). Yonhap (Seoul), 11/ Washington to scrap the U.S.-ROK mis- Jane’s Defence Weekly, 11/25/95, p. 20 (5722). 3/95; in FBIS-EAS-95-213, 11/3/95 (5960). Flight International, 11/29/95-12/5/95, p. 14 sile MOU, the U.S. State Department (5722). agrees to further discussions on the mat- 11/29/95 ter. The South Korean Defense Minister 12/7/95* South Korea formally requests the annul- and other ROK officials say South Korea The Armaments Corporation of South Af- ment of the U.S.-ROK missile Memoran- should join the MTCR, which would al- rica (Armscor) announces that it has de- dum of Understanding (MOU). The 1990 low them to increase the range of South veloped an integrated rocket-ramjet MOU, which restricts the ROK to deploy- Korea’s missiles to 300 km. This, they ar- propulsion system for medium- to long- ing only missiles with a range of less than gue, would provide a more credible deter- range tactical missiles. 180 km, was signed after the U.S. became rent to North Korean forces and would Norman Chandler, Star (Johannesburg), 12/7/95, aware that Nike-Hercules surface-to-air allow South Korea to develop space launch p. 8; in FBIS-TAC-95-007, 12/7/95 (5693). missile technology provided by the U.S. vehicles. was being used by South Korea to develop Evan S. Medeiros, Arms Control Today, 12/95-1/ SOUTH AFRICA WITH: NHK-1 and -2 surface-to-surface (SSMs). 96, p. 25 (5761). Belgium, Iraq, United Kingdom, and The NHK-2, or “Hyonmu” SSM, has a United States, 137 range of 260 km. Although U.S. inspec- 12/14/95 Malaysia, 149 tors have verified the range of those weap- John Holum, Director of the U.S. Arms ons as being within permitted limitations, Control and Disarmament Agency, holds Washington is worried that South Korea talks with South Korean officials about may use this technology to develop weap- curbing North Korea’s sales of conven- ons with ranges beyond 300 km, the MTCR tional weapons, including Scuds. limit. The U.S. also thinks the develop- Ku Song-chae, Choson Ilbo (Seoul), p. 2; in FBIS- EAS-96-001, 12/31/95 (5770). ment of the NHK-2 SSM could lead to an

The Nonproliferation Review/Spring-Summer 1996 157 Missile Developments

2/6/96 Bow-2 SAMs. Taiwan is also reported to A senior South Korean government source be deploying the Sky Bow in the Kaohsiung says the U.S. told ROK officials on 11/95 TAIWAN region and planning to deploy the system that, even if South Korea joined the MTCR, on the Penghu islands (the Pescadores) and the U.S. would remain concerned about on Tungyin in early 1996. Taiwan’s De- the possibility of its development of mis- fense Minister Chiang Chung-ling declines siles with ranges greater than 300 km. INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS comment on the reported deployment. The Another high-level official says, “The U.S. Sky Bow was developed by the Defense distrust of the ROK and its demand that 11/22/95 Ministry’s research body, the Chunglashan we reveal our independent missile devel- Taiwan commissions a second squadron of Institute of Science and Technology. After opment plan is a form of infringing on our the Indigenous Defense Fighter (IDF), or successful tactical tests for the Sky Bow-2 sovereignty. Our basic position is that we Ching Kuo, combat aircraft. The IDFs will were conducted at Taiwan’s eastern expect to receive equal treatment when we be equipped with indigenously developed Chiupeng Base in 1995, Taiwan’s general become a member of the MTCR.” Tien Chien (Sky Sword) -1 and -2 air-to- staff headquarters decided to deploy them. Yu Yong-won, Choson Ilbo (Seoul), 2/7/96, p. 1; air missiles (AAMs), which are equivalent In comparison to the Sky Bow-1, the Sky in FBIS-EAS-96-026, 2/7/96 (5767). to the U.S.-designed AMRAAM Aim-120 Bow-2 has greater thrust, target detection missile. The missiles will allow the IDFs a capabilities, maneuverability, and range. 2/17/96* beyond visual-range combat capability. The Sky Bow-2 also uses the advanced The South Korean Defense Ministry de- Benjamin Yeh, CNA (Taipei), 11/23/95; in FBIS- Chang Pai phased array radar, while the nies knowledge of a report that the U.S. CHI-95-226, 11/23/95 (5819). Sky Bow-1 uses the radar used by the Hawk will produce 40 tactical missiles capable missile system. Taiwan has reportedly de- of countering incoming enemy missiles and 12/18/95* cided to modify the Sky Bow missile to deploy them in the ROK. However, accord- Taiwan’s Army is expected to budget NT develop the Sky Halberd intermediate- ing to a U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) spokes- $320 billion for the FY 1997-2006 period range SSM. A Chinese journal reported man, USFK Commander General Gary for 10 categories of weapons, including sur- that Taiwan decided to develop the SSM Luck did discuss the Theater High-Altitude face-to-air missiles (SAMs). Taiwan’s air- in 7/95 or 8/95, after Chinese missile tests Area Defense (THAAD) system, which defense missile purchases will total some off Taiwan. Defense Minister Chiang de- includes such weapons, with Pentagon of- NT $62 billion and include 54 man-por- nied this report, stating that “the Sky Bow- ficials. The spokesman declined comment table SAMs; 36 sets of vehicle-mounted, 2 and the reported surface-to-surface on THAAD missile deployment in South army group-level SAMs; 153 sets of ve- weapons are virtually different systems.” Korea. hicle-mounted, division-level SAMs; six Lu Chao-long, Chung-Kuo Shih-Pao (Taipei), 1/3/ Yonhap (Seoul), 2/17/96; in FBIS-EAS-96-034, 2/ sets of Sky Bow missile systems; and three 96, p. 1; in FBIS-CHI-96-010, 1/3/96 (5948). Ben- 17/96 (5765). sets of U.S.-made Patriot missiles. The jamin Yeh, CNA (Taipei), 1/4/96; in FBIS-CHI- army’s modernization program com- 96-003, 1/4/96 (5948). menced in 1994. Approval has already been TAIWAN WITH: SPAIN given for the acquisition of Patriot and Sky Bow missiles. France, 140 Chung-kuo Shih-pao (Taipei), 12/18/95, p. 2; in PRC, 152 FBIS-CHI-96-001, 12/18/95 (5821). Chung-Kuo PRC and United States, 153 Shih-Pao (Taipei), 1/28/96, p. 4; in FBIS-CHI-96- SPAIN WITH: 024, 1/28/96 (5947). TAIWAN WITH UNITED STATES PRC, 151 1/3/96* Taiwan has deployed its Sky Bow-2 SAM 1/15/96-1/21/96* and Chang Pai phased array air-defense ra- A measure designed to increase U.S. mili- SWITZERLAND dar at the Sky Dragon missile base in tary equipment sales to Taiwan is being Sanchih Township, Taipei County. Con- pursued by members of the House of Rep- structed in 10/94, Sky Dragon is Taiwan’s resentatives and the Senate. Reports by the first Sky Bow missile base and the first to House International Relations Committee be equipped with Sky Bow-1 SAMs. A on the American Overseas Interest Act and SWITZERLAND WITH: single Sky Bow base includes Sky Bow-1 the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Israel, 146 and -2 missiles, vertical and mobile launch- on the Foreign Relations Revitalization Act ers, the Chang Pai phased array radar, and of 1995 “would give precedence in defense the main radar. Additional space has been export matters to the 1979 Taiwan Rela- allocated for the future deployment of Sky tions Act, which calls for the U.S. to pro-

158 The Nonproliferation Review/Spring-Summer 1996 Missile Developments vide for its self-defense needs.” If the mea- gistical items. According to the DOD’s range.” Although several members of Con- sure is passed, the U.S. will be able to sell Weapons Fact File of 1993, five Harpoon gress complain about the missile sale by Taiwan such weapon systems as Harpoon missiles are worth only $3.6 million. citing Turkey’s poor human rights record, missiles, Stinger shoulder-fired missiles, Arms Trade News, 2/96 (5895). the administration responds by asserting and AIM-120 Advanced Medium Range that the missiles are “unsuitable for inter- AAMs, according to Taiwanese military Late 1/96 nal use against Kurdish dissidents.” U.S. sources. The measure conflicts, however, Air Chief Marshal Siriphong Thongyai, administration officials also defend the sale with President Clinton’s policy which lim- commander-in-chief of the Royal Thai by referring to Turkey’s proximity to states its defense exports to Taiwan, and with the Airforce (RTAF), says the U.S. State De- such as Iran and Iraq. 1982 Joint Communique issued by the U.S. partment has twice sent him a draft con- Reuter, 12/19/95; in Executive News Service, 12/ and China. Although the communique was tract for the transfer of $578 million worth 20/95 (5840). Theresa Hitchens, Defense News, 12/ 4/95-12/10/95, p. 6 (5840). Arms Sales Monitor, never passed into law, it was designed to of arms to Thailand, including Harpoon 12/5/95, p. 1 (5840). Washington Post, 12/15/95, reduce defense sales to Taiwan to prevent ASMs. p. 29 (5840). Charlie Kharalambous, Cyprus Mail an arms race in the Taiwan Strait. Many Bangkok Post (Bangkok), 1/29/96, p. 1; in FBIS- (Nicosia), 12/28/95, p. 3; in FBIS-TAC-96-002, lawmakers cite China’s recent military EAS-96-021, 1/29/96 (5723). 12/28/95 (5840). Cyprus Newsletter, 12/31/95, pp. 1-2 (5840). Flight International, 11/29/95-12/5/95, modernization, including the purchase of p. 17 (5840). Russian-made Su-27 fighters and Kilo-class diesel submarines, as the impetus behind TURKEY the measure. According to the article, the measure will go unchallenged when both UKRAINE houses meet to conclude the State Depart- ment authorization bill in 2/96. TURKEY WITH: Jason Glashow, Defense News, 1/15/96-1/21/96, pp. 3, 20 (5946). Cyprus and United States, 138 INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS

TURKEY WITH UNITED STATES 12/28/95 THAILAND 11/29/95 The governing body of the Ukrainian Con- servative Republican Party announces its Turkey asks Washington if it can co-pro- opposition to the demolition of a Ukrai- duce the Army Tactical Missile System nian strategic missile silo, which is sched- (ATACMS) with the U.S. The U.S. de- uled to take place during a 1/4/96 meeting THAILAND WITH UNITED STATES nies the request because of concerns about in Kiev between Russian Defense Minister complying with the MTCR. Pavel Grachev, U.S. Secretary of Defense 1/96 Reuter, 12/19/95; in Executive News Service, 12/ Thailand submits a formal letter of offer 20/95 (5840). Theresa Hitchens, Defense News, 12/ William Perry, and Ukrainian Defense and acceptance (LOA) to the U.S. Con- 4/95-12/10/95, p. 6 (5840). Minister Valeriy Shmarov. The Conserva- gress for its approval of an arms package tive Republican Party asserts that the demo- 12/28/95* which includes McDonnell Douglas (MDC) lition of missile silos is aimed at leaving AGM-84 Harpoon ASMs. The LOA will The Clinton administration announces that Ukraine “defenseless” against the threats be sent to Thailand for signature following the U.S. intends to proceed with a $132 of neocolonialism and imperialism. million sale of 120 ATACMS to Turkey, Interfax (Moscow), 12/28/95; in FBIS-TAC-96- U.S. Congressional clearance, which is 001, 12/28/95 (5724). expected in mid-2/96. According to sources the first sale of this system to a foreign “close to the negotiations,” the deal should customer. The administration announces the transfer following the expiration of a 1/3/96 be finalized by 3/96. A multi-party group of Ukrainian parlia- Flight International, 1/24/96-1/30/96, p. 16 (5920). 15-day Congressional notification period. According to U.S. government officials, mentarians write to President Leonid Kuchma to protest against the planned de- 1/25/96 Turkey was previously denied access to ATACMS technology because of concerns struction of an ICBM silo on 1/5/96. The The U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) parliamentarians argue the destruction will notifies Congress that it intends to sell five about a possible MTCR violation. Although ATACMS has a range below the MTCR cause “economic, environmental, and mili- Harpoon air-to-surface missiles to Thailand tary damage” and will compromise at a total cost of $7.5 million. The Har- threshold, the missile system can be modi- fied to travel 300 km. U.S. sources say the Ukraine’s national security. poon sale is part of a $578 million U.S. Iryna Kotova, Intelnews (Kiev), 1/5/96; in FBIS- arms transfer package to Thailand which ATACMS systems to be sold to Turkey will SOV-96-004, 1/5/96 (5867). Unian (Kiev), 1/4/96; also includes eight F/A-18 Hornet attack be equipped with “special software to block in FBIS-SOV-96-004, 1/4/96 (5867). aircraft, four spare engines, and other lo- modification of the missile to increase its

The Nonproliferation Review/Spring-Summer 1996 159 Missile Developments

1/10/96 facility in “Pavlogras,” Ukraine. quirement. The U.K.’s Defence Export Ukrainian Defense Minister Valeriy Post-Soviet Nuclear & Defense Monitor, 11/17/95, Services Organisation reportedly favors Shamarov says it would be a “reckless ad- p. 14 (5710). Pegasus as the CASOM choice and is ex- venture” for Kiev to keep its ICBM nuclear pected to support British participation in warheads and missile silos when there is the UAE program, which could lead to no chance that Ukraine will use or main- UNITED ARAB EMIRATES greater sales in the Gulf. GEC-Marconi tain them. Dynamics may develop a long-range anti- Ukrinform (Kiev), 1/11/96; in FBIS-SOV-96-008, ship version of the Hakim in the future and 1/11/96 (5878). may also design a variant with a dual pas- sive/active radar seeker. INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS UKRAINE WITH: Jane’s International Defense Review, 1/96, p. 6 PRC, 153 (5844). Russia, 155 1/96* Dubai’s Magellan Systems is selling a $500 UNITED ARAB EMIRATES WITH basic version of a Global Positioning Sys- UKRAINE WITH UNITED STATES UNITED STATES tem (GPS) receiver which uses Arabic graphics and keypads. The 400 g, battery- 11/95 11/25/95* operated, military Pioneer version of the The U.S. firm McDonnell Douglas is likely U.S. and Ukrainian representatives plan to Trailblazer XL GPS receiver meets MIL- meet to negotiate an agreement for launch- to bid for the UAE’s stand-off missile re- STD-810D and is intended to complement quirement. McDonnell Douglas is also pre- ing Ukrainian Zenit rockets from sea-based the Nav1,000M5 Hawk receiver; this will launch sites, as part of an international en- paring to sell its AGM-86 Stand-off Land allow for distribution to the section/vehicle Attack Missile (SLAM) technology to other deavor headed by the U.S.’s Boeing Co. level. Vehicle installations and external The Sea Launch project will cost approxi- states in the Gulf, pending clearance from antennas are optional. The graphics can be the U.S. government. According to an of- mately $500 million, most of which will converted into English with a basic key- be provided by Western organizations. The ficial from McDonnell Douglas, his com- board operation. pany is confident the U.S. government will project will probably need to comply with International Defense Review, 1/96, p. 18 (5845). the space launch agreement that is in the permit the release of SLAM technology to process of being negotiated between the region in the near future. UNITED ARAB EMIRATES WITH: Jane’s Defence Weekly, 11/25/95, p. 16 (5669). Ukraine and the U.S. France, 160 Space News, 11/6/95-11/12/95, p. 2 (5716).

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES WITH Mid-11/95 UNITED KINGDOM The U.S. Defense Nuclear Agency (DNA) UNITED KINGDOM grants a $933,845 contract to the U.S.’s General Atomics to draw up a plan for 1/96* eliminating Ukraine’s SS-24 solid rocket The UAE clears two members of the Hakim UNITED KINGDOM WITH: motors using “an advanced cryogenic family of air-to-surface weapons, devel- Belgium, Iraq, South Africa, and washout technology.” The technology em- oped by GEC-Marconi Dynamics, for en- ploys high pressure liquid nitrogen to sepa- try into service. The 227 kg PGM-1 is a United States, 137 rate the propellant into small parts inside rocket-assisted laser-guided bomb and the Ecuador, 139 the rocket motor. The washout system was rocket-powered 900 kg PGM-2 is equipped France and Italy, 139 developed by General Atomics with assis- with a television seeker and a datalink to Malaysia, 149 tance from the Joint Ordnance Command- the launch platform. The PGM-1 and PGM- Oman, 149 ers Group and the U.S. Air Force 2 were tested successfully in 10/95 and 11/ United Arab Emirates, 160 Armstrong Laboratory Evironics Director- 95. These tests may persuade the UAE to ate at Tyndall Air Force Base. According acquire the PGM-3 and PGM-4 versions to General Atomics, no special handling currently under development with GEC- of the waste is necessary because the liq- Marconi Dynamics. The PGM-3 is similar UNITED NATIONS uid nitrogen evaporates during the process. to the PGM-2 but with a longer range, and Alliant Techsystems/Global Environmen- the turbo-powered PGM-4 has a range, just tal Solutions, PaR Systems, Sweet Analy- under the MTCR’s 300 km-range param- sis Services, Inc., Orbita Ltd., and General eter. GEC-Marconi Dynamics has pro- UNITED NATIONS WITH: Atomics, will implement the project over posed the Pegasus variant of the PGM 4 as Germany, 140 a period of seven months at a production a contender for the U.K.’s CASOM re-

160 The Nonproliferation Review/Spring-Summer 1996 Missile Developments

the U.S. is likely to emerge in the near future. UNITED STATES Rowan Scarborough and Bill Gertz, Washington YEMEN Times, 1/30/96, pp. A1, A14 (5738). Jim Adams, Reuter, 12/12/95; in Executive News Service, 12/ 13/95 (5776).

INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS UNITED STATES WITH: Belgium, Iraq, South Africa, and 12/7/95 12/21/95 United Kingdom, 137 CIA Director John Deutch writes to U.S. Yemen recently deployed “ground-to- Cyprus and Turkey, 138 Senator Carl Levin (D- Michigan) to in- ground missile ramps” on the Red Sea is- form him that Congress’s defense authori- Egypt, 139 lands of Hanish al-Saghir and Jabal Zuqar, zation bill for 1996 overemphasizes the India and Pakistan, 141 according to an anonymous diplomatic future missile threat to the U.S. Republi- Iraq, Jordan, and Russia, 145 source. can legislators accuse the CIA of provid- Israel, 146 AFP (Paris), 12/21/95; in FBIS-NES-95-245, 12/ ing Levin with the information in order to Japan, 147 21/95 (5679). bolster his arguments against the deploy- Kazakstan and Russia, 148 ment of a national missile defense system North Korea, 149 during Congressional deliberation of the PRC, 154 1996 defense authorization bill. In the let- PRC and Taiwan, 153 ter, Deutch tells Levin that nations are very Russia, 156 unlikely to export ICBMs in the future and that the U.S. can detect an indigenous South Korea, 157 ICBM development program several years Taiwan, 158 in advance. According to intelligence Thailand, 159 sources, however, a North Korean missile Turkey, 159 test “went virtually undetected” in 1993, Ukraine, 160 raising anxieties regarding U.S. detection United Arab Emirates, 160 capabilities. Deutch’s letter refers to in- formation included in the CIA’s classified 1996 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), titled “Emerging Missile Threats to North VIETNAM America During the Next 15 Years,” which asserts that no country, except the princi- pal declared nuclear powers, will be able to develop or otherwise obtain a ballistic VIETNAM WITH: missile capable of threatening the “contigu- Canada, Chile, Malaysia, Mauritius, ous 48 states or Canada” in the next 15 and Philippines, 138 years. The estimate asserts that U.S. intel- ligence agencies “have no evidence that Iran wants to develop an ICBM,” and that the probability of North Korea acquiring missiles capable of targeting Alaska in five years is “very low.” Several Republican U.S. Congressmen who favor deploying a national defense to protect against limited missile attacks say the NIE has been po- liticized by the Clinton administration be- cause of its opposition to Republican plans for deploying a small number of anti-mis- sile systems designed to intercept ballistic missiles that might be launched at the U.S. by rogue states. Missile defense support- ers assert that a ballistic missile threat to

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