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Clustering of Local Group Distances: Publication Bias Or Correlated Measurements? Vii

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Clustering of Local Group Distances: Publication Bias Or Correlated Measurements? Vii Draft version April 2, 2020 Preprint typeset using LATEX style AASTeX6 v. 1.0 CLUSTERING OF LOCAL GROUP DISTANCES: PUBLICATION BIAS OR CORRELATED MEASUREMENTS? VII. A DISTANCE FRAMEWORK OUT TO 100 MPC Richard de Grijs1,2,3 and Giuseppe Bono4,5 1Department of Physics & Astronomy, Macquarie University, Balaclava Road, Sydney, NSW 2109, Australia 2Research Centre for Astronomy, Astrophysics & Astrophotonics, Macquarie University, Balaclava Road, Sydney, NSW 2109, Australia 3International Space Science Institute{Beijing, 1 Nanertiao, Zhongguancun, Hai Dian District, Beijing 100190, China 4Dipartimento di Fisica, Universit`adi Roma Tor Vergata, via Della Ricerca Scientifica 1, 00133, Roma, Italy 5INAF, Rome Astronomical Observatory, via Frascati 33, 00078 Monte Porzio Catone, Italy ABSTRACT We consider the body of published distance moduli to the Fornax and Coma galaxy clusters, with specific emphasis on the period since 1990. We have carefully homogenized our final catalogs of dis- tance moduli onto the distance scale established in the previous papers in this series. We assessed systematic differences associated with the use of specific tracers, and consequently discarded results based on application of the Tully{Fisher relation and of globular cluster and planetary nebula lumi- nosity functions. We recommend `best' weighted relative distance moduli for the Fornax and Coma Fornax−Virgo clusters with respect to the Virgo cluster benchmark of ∆(m − M)0 = 0:18 ± 0:28 mag and Coma−Virgo ∆(m − M)0 = 3:75 ± 0:23 mag. The set of weighted mean distance moduli (distances) we derived as most representative of the clusters' distances is, Fornax +1:4 (m − M)0 = 31:41 ± 0:15 mag (D = 19:1−1:2 Mpc) and +2:4 = 31:21 ± 0:28 mag (D = 17:5−2:2 Mpc); Coma +19:0 (m − M)0 = 34:99 ± 0:38 mag (D = 99:5−15:9 Mpc) and +11:9 = 34:78 ± 0:27 mag (D = 90:4−10:6 Mpc); where the first distance modulus for each cluster is the result of our analysis of the direct, absolute distance moduli, while the second modulus is based on distance moduli relative to the Virgo cluster. While the absolute and relative distance moduli for both clusters are mutually consistent within the uncertainties, the relative distance moduli yield shorter absolute distances by ∼1σ. It is unclear what may have caused this small difference for both clusters; lingering uncertainties in the underlying absolute distance scale appear to have given rise to a systematic uncertainty on the order of 0.20 mag. Keywords: Astronomical reference materials | Astronomy databases | Distance measure | Galaxy distances | Coma Cluster 1. A ROBUST FRAMEWORK OF on a well-established statistical footing, recommending LMC EXTRAGALACTIC DISTANCES (m − M)0 = 18:49 ± 0:09 mag (see also Crandall & arXiv:2004.00114v1 [astro-ph.GA] 31 Mar 2020 Over the course of the past decade, we have estab- Ratra 2015). lished a robust distance framework to galaxies in the This was followed by a series of papers aimed at both Local Group and beyond, based on a set of mutually and exploring the reality and/or the presence of publication internally consistent distance moduli that were validated bias among published distance measurements and es- on a robust statistical basis. In de Grijs et al.(2014, tablishing a robust local distance framework. In or- henceforth Paper I), we explored the presence of `publi- der of increasing distance, we applied the same anal- cation bias' in the body of published distance determi- ysis as developed in Paper I to the Galactic Center (de nations for the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC), as sug- Grijs & Bono 2016, Paper IV) and the Galactic rota- gested by Schaefer(2008). While we did not find any ev- tion constants (de Grijs & Bono 2017, Paper V), the idence of authors have jumped on this proverbial band- Small Magellanic Cloud (de Grijs & Bono 2015, Paper wagon, we put Freedman et al.(2001)'s canonical LMC III; see also Crandall & Ratra 2015), the M31 group (de LMC Grijs & Bono 2014, Paper II), and the Virgo cluster (de distance modulus of (m − M)0 = 18:50 ± 0:10 mag 2 Richard de Grijs and Giuseppe Bono Grijs & Bono 2020, Paper VI). In addition, we strongly As of 2019 December 19, when we completed our data recommend the independent, geometric distannce mea- mining, the numbers of hits in the NASA/ADS for the surement to the maser host galaxy NGC 4258 published Fornax and Coma clusters were 1849 and 5357, respec- by Herrnstein et al.(1999) as additional, intermediate- tively. The resulting numbers of absolute/relative dis- distance stepping stone. Our full, internally consistent tance measures included in our final catalogs are 140/62 distance framework thus far established is summarized and 95/56 for the Fornax and Coma clusters, respec- in Table 3 of Paper VI. tively. For the Fornax cluster, we retrieved distance In this paper, we expand our previous analyses by moduli relative to that of the Virgo cluster; for the Coma focusing on two additional, rich benchmark galaxy clus- cluster, we retrieved relative distance measures with re- ters. These include the Fornax cluster as southern- spect to the Virgo (53), Leo I (2 direct, 10 indirect; see hemisphere benchmark counterpart to the Virgo clus- Section 4.4), and Fornax (1) clusters. ter in the northern hemisphere, as well as the Coma Our final database, sorted by year and by tracer cluster. This takes our internally consistent `local' dis- for both galaxy clusters separately, is available online tance framework out to distances of order 100 Mpc. At through http://astro-expat.info/Data/pubbias.html,1 those distances, a significant fraction (although still a For graphical depictions of the clusters' distance moduli large minority) of articles citing distance estimates refer as a function of year of publication, see Figures1 and to redshifts rather than linear scales. This will there- 2. We will discuss the trends and any evidence of fore conclude our efforts to establish a benchmark set publication bias versus correlated measures in Section of statistically validated distance estimates in the local 3. Universe. We have organized this paper as follows. In Sec- 3. TRENDS IN FORNAX AND COMA CLUSTER tion2 we briefly summarize our data-mining approach DISTANCE DETERMINATIONS and describe the resulting catalogs containing Fornax Figures1 and2 show both the overall distribution of and Coma distances. We examine trends in distance distance moduli and the distance measures for selected determinations for both clusters in Section4. Then, individual tracers for the Fornax and Coma clusters, re- in Section3, we analyze the systematic differences, if spectively. The bottom panels in both figures show the any, among tracer populations for both clusters. This sets of published relative distance moduli of our target eventually results in a set of recommended benchmark clusters with respect to the Virgo cluster. distances, which we summarize in Section5. These Since we have focused our detailed data mining on the should be combined with the distance moduli summa- `modern' period from 1990 onward, we will concentrate rized in Paper VI (see that paper's Table 3) to gain a on those measures in our analysis of the distances im- full overview of our extragalactic distance framework. plied by the individual tracers. However, careful assess- ment of both figures shows that hidden trends in the dis- 2. OUR DATABASE tance moduli may be present for Fornax distance mea- Similarly to the previous papers in this series, we sures based on application of the Tully{Fisher relation mined the NASA/Astrophysics Data System (ADS) for (TFR), surface brightness fluctuations (SBF), and the newly derived or recalibrated/updated distance mea- planetary nebula luminosity function (PNLF). Hence, sures to the Fornax and Coma clusters. We used as for the Fornax distances based on the TFR and SBF, we search terms `Fornax Cluster' and `Coma Cluster.' We analyzed the period from 2000 onward, while for PNLF- adopted the same criteria as in our previous papers for based measures we used the timeframe since 1995. For inclusion of any new values in our final database (for the Coma cluster, we restricted our analysis of its TFR- a detailed description, see, e.g., Paper I). We included based distances to the period from 2000 given the large both measurements to the galaxy clusters as a whole, as scatter of the individual data points prior to 2000, which well as to individual galaxies in the cluster cores (indi- may imply the presence of unaccounted-for biases and cated separately in our final catalogs). For the Fornax measurement errors. Note that all data points included cluster, we hence included distance measures to NGC in Figures1 and2 reflect the assumptions made by their 1316, NGC 1326A, NGC 1365, and NGC 1399 (as well original authors. In Section4 we will first homogenize as NGC 1404). The relevant galaxies in the Coma clus- the data points used for further analysis before drawing ter for which distance moduli are included in our final our conclusions. database are NGC 4874, NGC 4881, NGC 4889, NGC 4921, NGC 4923, and IC 4051. For the `modern' period, from 1990 onward, we care- 1 A permanent link to this page can be found at http://web.archive.org/web/20200331174040/http://astro- fully perused all articles resulting from our NASA/ADS expat.info/Data/pubbias.html; members of the community are queries; prior to 1990, we followed the reference trail. encouraged to send us updates or missing information. Local Group distances and publication bias. VII. 3 Figure 1. Published distance moduli (original values and original error bars, where available) to the Fornax cluster and its central galaxies, NGC 1316, NGC 1326A, NGC 1365, and NGC 1399 (as well as NGC 1404).
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