Geely Automobile (175.HK) 15 November 2017 the Roar of Lynk

Geely Automobile (175.HK) 15 November 2017 The roar of Lynk

Geely (175.HK) Lift TP to HKD35: The long awaited Lynk is to be launched at Guangzhou Auto Automobile Sector Show on 17 November. With its competitive price positioning and world-class Rating Buy tech. spec, Lynk will lead Geely into golden years from 2018E onwards. We Target Price HK$35 expect its FY17F net profit to jump 46% yoy, driven by robust sales volume Close Price HK$28.2 growth (Fig. 1) and profit margin expansion. 52 weeks range HK$7.02-28.40 Market cap HK$249b Satisfying results so far: 10M17 sales increased 72% yoy to 952k units,

Source: Bloomberg, CASH achieving 87% of the 1.1m unit annual sales target. The monthly sales volume in Oct was 125k units, up 30% yoy and 15% mom. The market share gain is CASH Research [email protected] evidenced by the 72% accumulated sales growth (v. China overall auto 15 November 2017 market’s muted 2.1% sales growth in 10M17.) All the four new models Cynthia Tam Research Analyst launched in 2016 maintained high levels of sales volumes. In particular, the Tel: (+852) 2287-8466 [email protected] sales volume of Boyue amounted to 30.1k units, being the best- selling model of the Group. While the sales of Emgrand GL/ Emgrand GS/ Vision SUV amounted to 11.6k/13.5k/16.1k units, achieving 91.7%/60.2%/3.2% growth.

Lynk- winner takes all: Lynk & Co brand can supplement the Group’s current market coverage. Different from Geely brand that targets at mass and Volvo brand that targets at premium, the Lynk 01 SUV is expected to have the MSRP at the range of CNY180-250k, depending on the specifications. We see the price level as a competitive one when compare to other brands, such as. VW, Honda and Toyota, etc. (Fig. 2). The entry price of Lynk 01 is similar to that of Great Wall’s WEY VV7, which has the MSRP at CNY 167k- 188k. We see WEY as a proxy for Lynk sales forecast. Given VV7’s satisfactory sales figure, the market sentiment for new car models is believed to be positive (Fig 3). We are optimistic towards the sales volumes ramp of Lynk and expecting a monthly sales volume of over 10k for Lynk 01 in 2018 and 15k in 2019.

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November 15, 2017

Strong new model pipeline: Apart from the Lynk & Co 01 to be launched this week, Lynk’s 02 (compact SUV) and 03 (sedan) are to be launched by mid-18F, and then 2 new models per year beyond 2018. Besides Lynk, the Company plans to launch three new models under the Geely brand this year. The Lynk brand will mainly focus on the China market in 4Q17-2018, with expansion to Europe/US beyond 2018. We expect Lynk & Co's sales volume to account for 20-30% of Geely's total sales of 2m by 2020.

Figure 1. Geely monthly sales by model

Source: Company Data, CASH

Figure 2. MSRP of comparable SUV Figure 3. Sales of GW VV7 (a proxy models v.s Lynk 01 for Lynk 01)

Source: Company Data, xcar, CASH

November 15, 2017

Retain Buy with target price up to HKD35: We forecast Geely’s 2018 earnings growth will be around 54% based on robust sales volume growth.

We reiterate buy with TP raised to HKD35 based on 2018 PE of 21.6x and 2018E EPS growth of 54%, implying an 24% upside. We believe Geely will continue to have upside earning revisions and re-rate from the current PE given its growth on new cars launch, and strengthened market position in China automobiles market.

Figure 4. Historical leading PE Figure 5.Relative price

Source: Bloomberg, CASH

November 15, 2017