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Pathways to a Hydrogen Future Els UK PTF Prelims-I046734 25-6-2007 5:40p.m. Page:i Trim:152MM×229MM Float:Top/Bot T.S:Integra, India Pathways to a Hydrogen Future Font:Helvatica & B.Antiqua 10/12pt T.Area:112X181mm Margins: Top:17mm Gutter:20mm 43 Lines 1 Color Recto Els UK PTF Prelims-I046734 25-6-2007 5:40p.m. Page:ii Trim:152MM×229MM Float:Top/Bot T.S:Integra, India This page intentionally left blank Font:Helvatica & B.Antiqua 10/12pt T.Area:112X181mm Margins: Top:17mm Gutter:20mm 43 Lines 1 Color Recto Els UK PTF Prelims-I046734 25-6-2007 5:40p.m. Page:iii Trim:152MM×229MM Float:Top/Bot T.S:Integra, India Pathways to a Hydrogen Future THOMAS E. DRENNEN JENNIFER E. ROSTHAL AMSTERDAM – BOSTON – HEIDELBERG – LONDON – NEW YORK – OXFORD PARIS – SAN DIEGO – SAN FRANCISCO – SINGAPORE – SYDNEY – TOKYO Font:Helvatica & B.Antiqua 10/12pt T.Area:112X181mm Margins: Top:17mm Gutter:20mm 43 Lines 1 Color Recto Els UK PTF Prelims-I046734 25-6-2007 5:40p.m. Page:iv Trim:152MM×229MM Float:Top/Bot T.S:Integra, India Elsevier Linacre House, Jordan Hill, Oxford OX2 8DP, UK First edition 2007 Copyright © 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior written permission of the publisher Permissions may be sought directly from Elsevier’s Science & Technology Rights Department in Oxford, UK: phone (+44) (0) 1865 843830; fax (+44) (0) 1865 853333; email: [email protected]. Alternatively you can submit your request online by visiting the Elsevier web site at http://elsevier.com/locate/permissions, and selecting Obtaining permission to use Elsevier material Notice No responsibility is assumed by the publisher for any injury and/or damage to persons or property as a matter of products liability, negligence or otherwise, or from any use or operation of any methods, products, instructions or ideas contained in the material herein. Because of rapid advances in the medical sciences, in particular, independent verification of diagnoses and drug dosages should be made British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data A catalog record for this book is available from the Library of Congress ISBN-13: 978-0-08046-734-4 For information on all Elsevier publications visit our website at books.elsevier.com Printed and bound in Great Britain 070809101110987654321 Working together to grow libraries in developing countries www.elsevier.com | www.bookaid.org | www.sabre.org Font:Helvatica & B.Antiqua 10/12pt T.Area:112X181mm Margins: Top:17mm Gutter:20mm 43 Lines 1 Color Recto Els UK PTF Prelims-I046734 25-6-2007 5:40p.m. Page:v Trim:152MM×229MM Float:Top/Bot T.S:Integra, India Contents List of Figures ix List of Tables xiii Acknowledgement xv Part I Overview 1 1 The Hydrogen Futures Simulation Model (H2Sim): Pathways to a Hydrogen Future 3 Interest in the Hydrogen Economy 4 Global Energy Demand and Resource Availability 6 Energy Security 8 Environmental Considerations 9 Pathways to a Hydrogen Future 10 Centralized versus Decentralized Hydrogen Production Options 11 Hydrogen Futures Simulation Model 13 Production 14 Production Options 15 Hydrogen Production Costs 16 Carbon Capture and Sequestration 17 Distribution and Storage 18 Delivered Hydrogen Costs 19 End Use 21 Carbon Emissions 22 Sensitivity of the Results 23 Conclusion 25 References 26 Font:Helvatica & B.Antiqua 10/12pt T.Area:112X181mm Margins: Top:17mm Gutter:20mm 43 Lines 1 Color Recto Els UK PTF Prelims-I046734 25-6-2007 5:40p.m. Page:vi Trim:152MM×229MM Float:Top/Bot T.S:Integra, India vi Contents Part II Why Hydrogen? 29 2 Justifications for Hydrogen 31 Growing Energy Consumption 31 Fueling the World 33 The United States 43 Adequacy of Reserves 47 Reserve Estimates 50 Oil Sands 59 Coal to Liquid 60 Gas to Liquid 61 Biomass to Liquid 61 Undiscovered Reserves 63 Reserve Distribution 67 References 71 3 Energy Security 75 Strategic Value of Oil 77 Economic Oil Security 78 Modeling and Forecasts of Future Oil Price Shocks 80 Historic Price Instability 81 Current Areas of Instability 83 Infrastructure Vulnerability 87 References 91 4 Environmental Concerns 95 Climate Change 95 Other Environmental Concerns 107 References 117 Part III On the Road to Hydrogen 121 5 Progress Towards a Hydrogen Future 123 Fuel Cell Cars 123 Other Hydrogen Vehicles 131 Portable Applications 132 Stationary Applications 137 Conclusion 148 References 149 Font:Helvatica & B.Antiqua 10/12pt T.Area:112X181mm Margins: Top:17mm Gutter:20mm 43 Lines 1 Color Recto Els UK PTF Prelims-I046734 25-6-2007 5:40p.m. Page:vii Trim:152MM×229MM Float:Top/Bot T.S:Integra, India Contents vii Part IV The Hydrogen Futures Simulation Model (H2Sim) 153 6 Hydrogen Production 157 Steam Methane Reformation 160 Coal Gasification 162 Electrolysis 163 Thermochemical Processes 165 Non-catalytic Partial Oxidation 168 Sensitivity Analysis 171 Carbon Emissions 178 References 179 7 Hydrogen Distribution 183 Storage 185 Transportation 191 Hydrogen distribution 201 Sensitivity Analysis 204 References 208 8 End Use 211 Vehicles 211 Carbon Emissions 213 End Use Costs 213 Sensitivity Analysis 216 References 220 9 User’s Guide 221 System Requirements 221 Starting the Model and Running a Base Case 221 Model Operation 223 Model Navigation 223 Production 224 Capital Cost Sensitivity 225 Carbon Pathway 228 Storage and Delivery 229 End Use 231 Conclusion 234 Font:Helvatica & B.Antiqua 10/12pt T.Area:112X181mm Margins: Top:17mm Gutter:20mm 43 Lines 1 Color Recto Els UK PTF Prelims-I046734 25-6-2007 5:40p.m. Page:viii Trim:152MM×229MM Float:Top/Bot T.S:Integra, India viii Contents Part V Conclusion and Discussion 235 10 From Here to There: the Transition to a Hydrogen Future 237 A Decentralized Approach to Hydrogen Production for the United States 240 A Push from Carbon Markets in the European Union 246 The Push from Rapidly Developing Countries 249 Conclusion 251 References 252 Appendix 253 Executive Summary 253 Introduction 254 Model Structure and Assumptions 255 Sensitivity Analysis 259 Fuel Price Sensitivity Results 261 Capital Cost Sensitivity Analysis 263 Construction Time Sensitivity 265 Externality Analysis 267 Conclusions 269 A.1 Sensitivity Analysis using Platt’s Data 270 A.2 Detailed Externality Assumptions Available in GenSim 272 References 274 Index 275 Font:Helvatica & B.Antiqua 10/12pt T.Area:112X181mm Margins: Top:17mm Gutter:20mm 43 Lines 1 Color Recto Els UK PTF Prelims-I046734 25-6-2007 5:40p.m. Page:ix Trim:152MM×229MM Float:Top/Bot T.S:Integra, India List of Figures 1.1 Proton exchange membrane fuel cell schematic. 10 1.2 Centralized versus decentralized hydrogen production. 12 1.3 Densities of various fuel options. 13 1.4 The Hydrogen Futures Simulation Model. 14 1.5 Sensitivity of results to gasoline prices (default results assume 0.99 $/gallon gasoline). 24 2.1 Past forecasts of oil prices. 32 2.2 Historical and projected world energy consumption, 1990–2025. 33 2.3 Historical and projected oil consumption by region, 1990–2025. 35 2.4 Nominal versus real crude oil prices, 1949–2005. 38 2.5 Nominal vs. real natural gas prices, monthly, 1976–2005. 39 2.6 Coal prices for United States, 1986–2004. 40 2.7 Relationship between income levels and energy consumption. 42 2.8 United States energy consumption by source, 2000 and 2025. 43 2.9 Projected fuel shares in US electricity sector, 1990–2025. 44 2.10 United States energy consumption trends, 1635–2002. 46 2.11 McKelvey diagram defining resources and reserves. 49 2.12 World oil reserve-to-production ratio, 1980–2002. 54 2.13 Oil production in the lower 48 states of the United States. 55 2.14 Global natural gas reserve estimates, 1967–2003. 65 2.15 Global natural gas reserve-to-production ratio, 1980–2001. 65 2.16 National Petroleum Council long-term natural gas supply forecasts. 66 2.17 World crude oil reserve distribution. 68 2.18 Crude oil reserve-to-production ratios for selected countries. 69 2.19 World natural gas reserve distribution. 69 Font:Helvatica & B.Antiqua 10/12pt T.Area:112X181mm Margins: Top:17mm Gutter:20mm 43 Lines 1 Color Recto Els UK PTF Prelims-I046734 25-6-2007 5:40p.m. Page:x Trim:152MM×229MM Float:Top/Bot T.S:Integra, India x List of Figures 2.20 Natural gas reserve-to-production ratios for selected countries. 70 2.21 World coal reserve distribution. 70 3.1 Dependence on oil from unstable regions is high. 76 3.2 Natural gas dependency is growing (LNG). 77 3.3 Oil price vs. United States GDP growth rate. 79 3.4 Saudi Arabia oil production, 1970–2004 82 3.5 United States refining capacity, 1980–2004. 89 3.6 Gulf oil and natural gas infrastructure affected by Hurricanes Rita and Katrina. 90 3.7 Natural gas, petroleum and gasoline prices prior to and following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. 91 4.1 The greenhouse effect. 96 4.2 Carbon dioxide atmospheric concentration, 1000–2003. 97 4.3 Relative role of various greenhouse gas emissions from United States in 2000 to greenhouse effect. 99 4.4 Global temperature anomalies, 1000–2000. 99 4.5 World distribution of carbon dioxide emissions, 2001 and 2025. 103 4.6 United States carbon emissions by sector, 2001. 104 4.7 Per capita carbon emissions by region, 2001 and 2025. 104 4.8 Meeting US Kyoto obligations through fuel switching in the electricity sector.
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